It is likely that the "brains" of Downing Street thought that briefing the "terrorist sympathiser" line from Cameron was a no-lose strategy. Let Corbyn and Labour debate on that ground and they can only lose. However it is also possible that they have heavily underrated the sense of fair play widespread even among their own supporters.
In other words the people of England are a lot more decent than the Conservative Party - not a new or original thought but on this particular squalid little tactic perhaps the reason it shall backfire rather badly.
It is likely that the "brains" of Downing Street thought that briefing the "terrorist sympathiser" line from Cameron was a no-lose strategy. Let Corbyn and Labour debate on that ground and they can only lose. However it is also possible that they have heavily underrated the sense of fair play widespread even among their own supporters.
In other words the people of England are a lot more decent than the Conservative Party - not a new or original thought but on this particular squalid little tactic perhaps the reason it shall backfire rather badly.
I doubt it had anything to do with it. It was a rock solid Labour seat and they worked hard at getting their vote out. Also, huge number of votes were also already cast via post before those comments.
I believe the Terrorist Sympathiser line was aimed squarely at the fact that the general public were a lot more tuned in because of the big build up to the Syria vote and it was a way to cast a light on Corbyn and friends connections. The Tories are just doing what they did with Ed, make sure you paint a picture early of your opponent and make it stick. No manner of PR / soft soap interviews etc changed the initial perceptions of Miliband.
Also, all that Miliband's dad was a dangerous anti-patriotic lefty. The BBC and Guardian went nuts, the polling suggested that was a low blow by the Daily Mail, but again ultimately that kind of muck sticks (true or not).
I wasn't thinking of the by-election but more generally ie the booing on QT, the willingness of other parties (Salmond was particularly strong on this in the debate) to defend Corbyn and attack Cameron, the inherent sense of fair play of the people and the resulting typecasting of the Tories as a pretty nasty bunch re-enforcing the bullying scandal makes the terrorist sympathiser briefing an huge own goal.
I wasn't thinking of the by-election but more generally ie the booing on QT, the willingness of other parties (Salmond was particularly strong on this in the debate) to defend Corbyn and attack Cameron, the inherent sense of fair play of the people and the resulting typecasting of the Tories as a pretty nasty bunch re-enforcing the bullying scandal makes the terrorist sympathiser briefing an huge own goal.
I doubt the Tories are worried on bit by some booing on QT, and the nasty bunch stuff, at the moment I think the public see all of the major parties as pretty bad bunch....it is just that Cameron / Osborne get the competency tick (deserved or not).
It was classic Lyton Crosby and when all the dust settles, people remember that bloke Corbyn and his mate, they used to cosy up to the IRA..they don't remember much more. Same as the muck thrown at Ed Miliband, all sorts of people came out screaming Daily Heil, totally unfair etc etc etc.
This stuff works (rightly or wrongly) if there is some truth and / or perception of truth. Tories only care for big business, Labour only care for public sector workers, minorities and people on benefits, neither are true but they are the stereotypes upon which lots of muck is thrown.
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
. In other words the people of England are a lot more decent than the Conservative Party - not a new or original thought but on this particular squalid little tactic perhaps the reason it shall backfire rather badly.
What's wrong with reminding people that:
For seven years running, 1986-92, at the height of the IRA’s “armed struggle,” Jeremy Corbyn attended and spoke at official republican commemorations to honour dead IRA terrorists, IRA “prisoners of war” and the active “soldiers of the IRA”
Labour Briefing, the hard-left magazine where Jeremy Corbyn was secretary of the editorial board, praised the Brighton bombing. In a statement written by the editorial board it said: “It certainly appears to be the case that the British only sit up and take notice [of Ireland] when they are bombed into it”
John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow chancellor, received a special award from the republican movement and Sinn Fein for his “unfailing political and personal support.” It was presented to him by Gerry Kelly, the Old Bailey bomber
John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn now claim to have promoted the peace process. But Mr Corbyn opposed a precursor to the peace process, the Anglo-Irish Agreement, and Mr McDonnell opposed the Good Friday Agreement.
Perhaps but what would worry me if I were a Tory is that this is so unecessary. Their opponents are politically dysfunctional, fighting like ferrets and likely to remain so. Therefore why didn't Cameron see the benefit in at least acting like a statesman.
Kicking someone when they are down is OK but if everyone sees you doing it then sometimes they can unite to kick you back!
Perhaps but what would worry me if I were a Tory is that this is so unecessary. Their opponents are politically dysfunctional, fighting like ferrets and likely to remain so. Therefore why didn't Cameron see the benefit in at least acting like a statesman.
Kicking someone when they are down is OK but if everyone sees you doing it then sometimes they can unite to kick you back!
I said at the time I thought it was unnecessary and unbecoming of a PM, but as I stated down below I think the Tories saw it as an opportunity to get that message out there when for once the public were engaged with what our politicians were up to.
The vast majority of people day to day don't follow all the cock-ups, half truths, etc. Once in a while their eyes and ears on open. I think the Tories thought this was a good opportunity to tell the public maybe Corbyn and friends aren't as cuddly as they might seem.
The video of Lynton Crosby giving a seminar on how to do politics is fascinating viewing and the terrorist sympathiser line is right up the alley of long term strategy.
Labour MP John Mann said: ‘They should be called terrorists. That’s what they are.
‘There is no ambiguity. There is no doubt. They’re terrorists.’
Conservative Philip Davies added: ‘God help us all if the BBC, as a public service broadcaster, can’t describe things as they are. Are they not wanting to offend the IS terrorists? It is absolutely extraordinary.
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
An unexpectedly good result for Corbyn. It should be good for the Tories in the long run. But having been wrong about the former, it's harder to be as certain about the latter now. Corbyn does not repel the core Labour vote, not yet at any rate, and the Tories are unlikely to have no miscalculations and problems in the coming years. He should still fail, perhaps be ousted, but that he might not at least has to be considered.
Momentum do seem to the key interesting factor. They seem much more aggressive than Corbyn's own words, less willing to let things stand on their own, and that could have consequences one way or the other.
Labour MP John Mann said: ‘They should be called terrorists. That’s what they are.
‘There is no ambiguity. There is no doubt. They’re terrorists.’
Conservative Philip Davies added: ‘God help us all if the BBC, as a public service broadcaster, can’t describe things as they are. Are they not wanting to offend the IS terrorists? It is absolutely extraordinary.
Well we know the official reason the BBC insist on not using the Daesh term, rather IS. Until they gave that reason, I thought the Tories were being very silly over their complaint, I don't really care if they call them ISIS, ISIL or Daesh, then the most unbelievable reasoning was produced....we can't be seen to be supporting their rivals....
Trouble is that Cameron wasn't talking about Ireland but about Daesh, and not just about Corbyn but by extension anti-bombing MPs. Also Corbyn does not look or sound like a terrorist sympathiser but a rather nice old chap.
Faced with a choice of Corbyn or the Bullington/Tatler Tories don't be surprised if a lot of otherwise sensible people say to the Tories that it is time to take them down a peg or three. I watched HIGNFY tonight and got the impression from the crowd reaction that their is a great loathing of the Conservative party - perhaps as unrepresentative an audience as QT but there are lots of people who do not hold the Conservative interest close to their hearts.
Whilst I enjoy reading David Herdson's very well-written columns, I really can't see how they are any less "biased" than Don Brind's. The only difference as far as I can see is that the editorial stance of Mr Herdson's happens to be more to the taste of much of the PB commentariat.
. In other words the people of England are a lot more decent than the Conservative Party - not a new or original thought but on this particular squalid little tactic perhaps the reason it shall backfire rather badly.
What's wrong with reminding people that:
For seven years running, 1986-92, at the height of the IRA’s “armed struggle,” Jeremy Corbyn attended and spoke at official republican commemorations to honour dead IRA terrorists, IRA “prisoners of war” and the active “soldiers of the IRA”
Labour Briefing, the hard-left magazine where Jeremy Corbyn was secretary of the editorial board, praised the Brighton bombing. In a statement written by the editorial board it said: “It certainly appears to be the case that the British only sit up and take notice [of Ireland] when they are bombed into it”
John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow chancellor, received a special award from the republican movement and Sinn Fein for his “unfailing political and personal support.” It was presented to him by Gerry Kelly, the Old Bailey bomber
John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn now claim to have promoted the peace process. But Mr Corbyn opposed a precursor to the peace process, the Anglo-Irish Agreement, and Mr McDonnell opposed the Good Friday Agreement.
What's squalid about that?
Corbyn and McDonnell cannot credibly complain about being labelled sympathizers for terrorists (The IRA are terrorists they seem to have had sympathy with after all), but whether it was the intention or not, people are remembering the Cameron comment as being about anyone who was anti the expansion of combat operations to Syria (something plenty of people are against - and more and more people will be over time unless it, unexpectedly, is obviously effective). If that sticks, the unfairness of it might overshadow the more credible labelling of Corbyn and McDonnell.
Trouble is that Cameron wasn't talking about Ireland but about Daesh, and not just about Corbyn but by extension anti-bombing MPs. Also Corbyn does not look or sound like a terrorist sympathiser but a rather nice old chap.
Faced with a choice of Corbyn or the Bullington/Tatler Tories don't be surprised if a lot of otherwise sensible people say to the Tories that it is time to take them down a peg or three. I watched HIGNFY tonight and got the impression from the crowd reaction that their is a great loathing of the Conservative party - perhaps as unrepresentative an audience as QT but there are lots of people who do not hold the Conservative interest close to their hearts.
It is your interpretation of what Cameron was talking about and the "nice old chap" is exactly why they used it. It isn't aimed at the wider public, it is aimed a certain section of the voting public, as a dog whistle to this bloke has some interesting views.
As for going off what the HIGNFY or QT or twitter reaction. We only need to look at the GE 2015 for your answer to that. Also, it is backed up with the polling (in this case), there is no great love for Cameron or the Tories, but they are seen as competent and that is what got them over the line.
The point is that the line has been repeated even days later, that is exactly what the Tories want. All the parties produce attack lines all the time, most are done and dusted within a few hours. Getting your attack line repeated nauseous is a win e.g Bedroom Tax.
An unexpectedly good result for Corbyn. It should be good for the Tories in the long run. But having been wrong about the former, it's harder to be as certain about the latter now. Corbyn does not repel the core Labour vote, not yet at any rate, and the Tories are unlikely to have no miscalculations and problems in the coming years. He should still fail, perhaps be ousted, but that he might not at least has to be considered.
Momentum do seem to the key interesting factor. They seem much more aggressive than Corbyn's own words, less willing to let things stand on their own, and that could have consequences one way or the other.
Good night.
We generally assume that the "patriotic" WWC voter will be repelled by Corbyn. Some may indeed.
But there are also WWC voters who were repelled by Blairite Toryism. Many are coming back home.
Whilst I enjoy reading David Herdson's very well-written columns, I really can't see how they are any less "biased" than Don Brind's. The only difference as far as I can see is that the editorial stance of Mr Herdson's happens to be more to the taste of much of the PB commentariat.
They do align more politically, but they are also generally more subtle and persuasive, with less transparently partisan flare. As a defender of Mr Brind's columns, I feel able to state that fairly confidently.
Also Corbyn does not look or sound like a terrorist sympathiser but a rather nice old chap.
Hence the importance of making it stick - get it out early & keep repeating it - and we have Labour & the SNP to thank for adding so much extra air-time too!
Trouble is that Cameron wasn't talking about Ireland but about Daesh, and not just about Corbyn but by extension anti-bombing MPs. Also Corbyn does not look or sound like a terrorist sympathiser but a rather nice old chap.
Faced with a choice of Corbyn or the Bullington/Tatler Tories don't be surprised if a lot of otherwise sensible people say to the Tories that it is time to take them down a peg or three. I watched HIGNFY tonight and got the impression from the crowd reaction that their is a great loathing of the Conservative party - perhaps as unrepresentative an audience as QT but there are lots of people who do not hold the Conservative interest close to their hearts.
It isn't aimed at the wider public, it is aimed a certain section of the voting public, as a dog whistle to this bloke has some interesting views.
Those who think 'this doesn't matter' should look at the age profile of Corbyn's approval ratings - not bad among the (twitter friendly, low voting) young to absolutely atrocious among the (old enough to remember the IRA, voting) older groups.....
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
Trouble is that Cameron wasn't talking about Ireland but about Daesh, and not just about Corbyn but by extension anti-bombing MPs. Also Corbyn does not look or sound like a terrorist sympathiser but a rather nice old chap.
Faced with a choice of Corbyn or the Bullington/Tatler Tories don't be surprised if a lot of otherwise sensible people say to the Tories that it is time to take them down a peg or three. I watched HIGNFY tonight and got the impression from the crowd reaction that their is a great loathing of the Conservative party - perhaps as unrepresentative an audience as QT but there are lots of people who do not hold the Conservative interest close to their hearts.
It isn't aimed at the wider public, it is aimed a certain section of the voting public, as a dog whistle to this bloke has some interesting views.
Those who think 'this doesn't matter' should look at the age profile of Corbyn's approval ratings - not bad among the (twitter friendly, low voting) young to absolutely atrocious among the (old enough to remember the IRA, voting) older groups.....
I predict if see some improvement in Corbyn's rating and / or polling showing that people thought it was a low blow...and people will use that to say that the line backfired and the British sense of fair play is showing through...but when the crunch time comes, we all know what people remember.
I think Ed Miliband got a lot of shit that wasn't deserved. I saw him as a misguided individual, very much like a lot of academics I have dealt with over the years. They mean well, they think their academic solutions will work as long as people don't cheat, bend the rules, and everybody plays nice. I am not sure he deserved quite as large a bucket of s##t tipped over him.
"I have a mea culpa to admit. Before the Oldham polling day, I confidently stated that Labour would not increase its vote share. Indeed, so categorical was I that I said I would eat Lord Ashdown’s hat it they did. Well, no-one gets it right all the time and I was probably tempting fate quoting that foolishly dismissive reference. I trust the honourable readers of politicalbetting will permit me to consume humble pie in lieu of the Lib Dem Lord’s headwear (which in any case, he should have already eaten)"
That was not your most intelligent comment. Please do not believe everything you read or hear. A 60% turnout implies 40% did not vote. Some 20% may be moving residences, students etc. but some of the other 20% may have come back to Labour because of Corbyn. As the Twisted Fire Stopper, many of his colleagues are cock-a-hoop with Corbyn.
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
Christmas songs at Christmas. How racist.
I bet the vast majority of people didn't even notice one way or another, and if they did certainly didn't think whatever racist underlying message was supposed to be there.
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
I think that both the "White Chrismas" van and all the flat-cap selfies are symptoms of how amateurish the UKIP ground operation is. The party still resembles a rugby club on tour.
Suzanne Evans greatly improved the professionalism of the kippers, but those days look like history. UKIP badly needs someone with a serious attitude like Evans at the top if it is ever to do well. That includes the EUref as well as domestic elections. Or are the kippets going to drive around their loudspeaker van playing the Dads Army theme tune?
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
Christmas songs at Christmas. How racist.
It's the beginning of December. True kippers would be complaining that Christmas was sprawling.
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
I think that both the "White Chrismas" van and all the flat-cap selfies are symptoms of how amateurish the UKIP ground operation is. The party still resembles a rugby club on tour.
Suzanne Evans greatly improved the professionalism of the kippers, but those days look like history. UKIP badly needs someone with a serious attitude like Evans at the top if it is ever to do well. That includes the EUref as well as domestic elections. Or are the kippets going to drive around their loudspeaker van playing the Dads Army theme tune?
The flat cap and dodgy jacket stunt I think were worse. It really looked like what Northerners stereotype of what Southerners think Northerners look like, while also expressing surprise that [insert Northern town] has plenty of overpriced coffee shops and nice restaurants.
An observation- I am just back from a trip to the UK. I met up with some old friends, we discussed ISIS. I then met up with my family, who similarly were keen to only talk about ISIS. My wife said at her office people were only talking about ISIS. During a work lunch, ISIS. My wife's Italian mother is obsessed by ISIS. At the supermarket she bumps into fellow Italians who want to talk about ISIS.
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
Christmas songs at Christmas. How racist.
Why that particular song was chosen we will probably never know, but why have a loudspeaker van driving around playing songs anyway? Not time or money well spent.
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
Christmas songs at Christmas. How racist.
I bet the vast majority of people didn't even notice one way or another, and if they did certainly didn't think whatever racist underlying message was supposed to be there.
Yes, rather like Justin on the previous thread in another context, you've got to be a bit off in the head to immediately jump to racist or sexist or religionist connotations (or whatever it is supposed to be "wrong" with this) when a van drives past playing a Christmas carol.
How independent is our Nuclear deterrent ? I'd rather Trump had ZERO influence over it if he became Pres.
If Trump is going to launch a nuke he will do so, I doubt whether Cameron does or does not also do so will effect things, still Hillary beating him on this poll at least, she would find him an easier opponent than Rubio or Carson
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
Christmas songs at Christmas. How racist.
I bet the vast majority of people didn't even notice one way or another, and if they did certainly didn't think whatever racist underlying message was supposed to be there.
Yes, rather like Justin on the previous thread in another context, you've got to be a bit off in the head to immediately jump to racist or sexist or religionist connotations (or whatever it is supposed to be "wrong" with this) when a van drives past playing a Christmas carol.
There was a television show many years ago called Balls of Steel. There was a recurring joke where a black man would ask for something and then flip out when the item is described as having black or white in it, e.g. black coffee, black forest gateau, etc.. One episode had him go into a record store and ask for Bing Cosby's festive song. Upon being told it is called White Christmas he flips out and accuses the sales assistant of being racist.
Sadly in the space of a few years what was a joke is now a reality. A Labour councillor crying racism over a Christmas song.
GeoffM said: 'You are right of course - the social values of June 1968 and yesterday are identical'
I am not suggesting that they are identical - but by mid-1968 we were close to the end of the 'swinging sixties' , 'Flower power etc' with the Permissive Society advancing with great momentum! More recently, in 1987 there was quite a bit of unflattering comment directed at Livingstone’s Tory opponent in Brent East as an unmarried mother -to – be! On this issue,perhaps, I happen to be more right-wing than you.
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
Christmas songs at Christmas. How racist.
I bet the vast majority of people didn't even notice one way or another, and if they did certainly didn't think whatever racist underlying message was supposed to be there.
Yes, rather like Justin on the previous thread in another context, you've got to be a bit off in the head to immediately jump to racist or sexist or religionist connotations (or whatever it is supposed to be "wrong" with this) when a van drives past playing a Christmas carol.
There was a television show many years ago called Balls of Steel. There was a recurring joke where a black man would ask for something and then flip out when the item is described as having black or white in it, e.g. black coffee, black forest gateau, etc.. One episode had him go into a record store and ask for Bing Cosby's festive song. Upon being told it is called White Christmas he flips out and accuses the sales assistant of being racist.
Sadly in the space of a few years what was a joke is now a reality. A Labour councillor crying racism over a Christmas song.
One question over this incident I have. Were they just playing this one and only Christmas song all day long? Or was it that person who cried racism heard that particular song and hit twitter? If it was the former that doesn't look quite so rosy, if it was one of many songs, well the story is just bollocks.
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
I think that both the "White Chrismas" van and all the flat-cap selfies are symptoms of how amateurish the UKIP ground operation is. The party still resembles a rugby club on tour.
Suzanne Evans greatly improved the professionalism of the kippers, but those days look like history. UKIP badly needs someone with a serious attitude like Evans at the top if it is ever to do well. That includes the EUref as well as domestic elections. Or are the kippets going to drive around their loudspeaker van playing the Dads Army theme tune?
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
Christmas songs at Christmas. How racist.
I bet the vast majority of people didn't even notice one way or another, and if they did certainly didn't think whatever racist underlying message was supposed to be there.
Yes, rather like Justin on the previous thread in another context, you've got to be a bit off in the head to immediately jump to racist or sexist or religionist connotations (or whatever it is supposed to be "wrong" with this) when a van drives past playing a Christmas carol.
There was a television show many years ago called Balls of Steel. There was a recurring joke where a black man would ask for something and then flip out when the item is described as having black or white in it, e.g. black coffee, black forest gateau, etc.. One episode had him go into a record store and ask for Bing Cosby's festive song. Upon being told it is called White Christmas he flips out and accuses the sales assistant of being racist.
Sadly in the space of a few years what was a joke is now a reality. A Labour councillor crying racism over a Christmas song.
One question over this incident I have. Were they just playing this one and only Christmas song all day long? Or was it that person who cried racism heard that particular song and hit twitter? If it was the former that doesn't look quite so rosy, if it was one of many songs, well the story is just bollocks.
It was supposedly a selection of cheesy Christmas songs.
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
Christmas songs at Christmas. How racist.
I bet the vast majority of people didn't even notice one way or another, and if they did certainly didn't think whatever racist underlying message was supposed to be there.
Yes, rather like Justin on the previous thread in another context, you've got to be a bit off in the head to immediately jump to racist or sexist or religionist connotations (or whatever it is supposed to be "wrong" with this) when a van drives past playing a Christmas carol.
There was a television show many years ago called Balls of Steel. There was a recurring joke where a black man would ask for something and then flip out when the item is described as having black or white in it, e.g. black coffee, black forest gateau, etc.. One episode had him go into a record store and ask for Bing Cosby's festive song. Upon being told it is called White Christmas he flips out and accuses the sales assistant of being racist.
Sadly in the space of a few years what was a joke is now a reality. A Labour councillor crying racism over a Christmas song.
One question over this incident I have. Were they just playing this one and only Christmas song all day long? Or was it that person who cried racism heard that particular song and hit twitter? If it was the former that doesn't look quite so rosy, if it was one of many songs, well the story is just bollocks.
It was supposedly a selection of cheesy Christmas songs.
Asked this before, sorry if somebody answered it and I missed it:
What's the practical timetable for deselections etc? Are there moves that the left can make any time that would strengthen their position and purge the moderates, or does basically nothing happen until the actual candidate selections a little bit ahead of the next general election?
If it's true that a ballot box in Oldham had about 99% of votes cast for one party that's something that ought to concern everyone because it isn't something that should ever happen in a functioning western democracy. The fact that some parties don't seem to be bothered about it is worrying IMO.
If it's true that a ballot box in Oldham had about 99% of votes cast for one party that's something that ought to concern everyone because it isn't something that should ever happen in a functioning western democracy. The fact that some parties don't seem to be bothered about it is worrying IMO.
We'd need more context, eg how many votes did it have?
If it's true that a ballot box in Oldham had about 99% of votes cast for one party that's something that ought to concern everyone because it isn't something that should ever happen in a functioning western democracy. The fact that some parties don't seem to be bothered about it is worrying IMO.
We'd need more context, eg how many votes did it have?
Not less than about 800 votes. Probably more like 1,000. I was at a polling station on Thursday where the total number of electors was 2,700 and they'd had 500 voting by 4:30pm.
In terms of deselections, it would surely make more sense - perhaps be quite widely applauded - to focus on those MPs who voted for the 2003 Iraq War than the much more minor consequences likely to flow from this week's vote on bombing Syria! I appreciate that many of the guilty have now left Parliament - but quite a few remain.
Interesting thing about that poll is that 71% of non-white respondents preferred Clinton to Carson. 61% of the white respondents went for Carson.
The landline/cell phone split was 620/400, so of course, you have the usual suspicion of retirees sitting at home in the afternoon, Fox News playing in the background, etc. etc.
A couple of threads ago, I suggested that there might be some value in backing Corbyn ceasing to be Labour leader in 2020, i.e. during the almost eight month period following the scheduled date of the next GE. This bet is available from William Hill at odds of 7/1. Yes, it's a long while to have to wait for your money, but post Oldham, this appears to be the most likely scenario. Those who disagree with me might like to explain just how, realistically, they see him being removed from office removed in he meantime. I suppose there is always the possibility that he might simply resign or succumb to ill health, after all he's no spring chicken, but these odds suggest he has only a 12.5% chance of continuing in office until 2020 and then losing the General Election to be held in that year, a prospect which now appears increasingly likely, especially if he makes it over the next 12 months or so. I rate this as being worth a modest punt and I very much doubt whether Hills will allow one to wager more than a few quid anyway. As ever, DYOR.
Morning. I think the SDP2 idea might be a goer but it needs at least 100 MPs and a couple of big unions to all have the balls to actually do it. As we've seen before the party has an awful lot of inertia when it comes to things like this, and if they wait until the deselections are actually happening then it will just look like sour grapes.
They need it to happen next year, with maybe the Conference as a trigger, as Corbyn tries to change a load of rules. Any later is too late and SDP2 will go the way of SDP1
In terms of deselections, it would surely make more sense - perhaps be quite widely applauded - to focus on those MPs who voted for the 2003 Iraq War than the much more minor consequences likely to flow from this week's vote on bombing Syria! I appreciate that many of the guilty have now left Parliament - but quite a few remain.
So you want to deselect Labour MPs who were loyal to the Labour whip of the day?
How independent is our Nuclear deterrent ? I'd rather Trump had ZERO influence over it if he became Pres.
I believe it is officially 100% independent. There are conspiracy theories that the Americans have put in a kill switch but AFAIK there is zero evidence to back that theory up with.
A couple of threads ago, I suggested that there might be some value in backing Corbyn ceasing to be Labour leader in 2020, i.e. during the almost eight month period following the scheduled date of the next GE. This bet is available from William Hill at odds of 7/1. Yes, it's a long while to have to wait for your money, but post Oldham, this appears to be the most likely scenario. Those who disagree with me might like to explain just how, realistically, they see him being removed from office removed in he meantime. I suppose there is always the possibility that he might simply resign or succumb to ill health, after all he's no spring chicken, but these odds suggest he has only a 12.5% chance of continuing in office until 2020 and then losing the General Election to be held in that year, a prospect which now appears increasingly likely, especially if he makes it over the next 12 months or so. I rate this as being worth a modest punt and I very much doubt whether Hills will allow one to wager more than a few quid anyway. As ever, DYOR.
Good tip PfP. I'm with you, Bill Hill doesn't like me too much, so I'll see what they'll let my friend have in a shop later today
I can't see him resigning in the near future for any reason other than ill health. He wants to complete the takeover of the party by the far left, with all the rules changed to entrench them there.
Any challenge from the PLP includes the incumbent automatically in the election, which will be decided by the same selector as as we just saw.
If he survives until this time next year then the 7/1 will start coming in, if there's an SDP2 split then his position will be even more entrenched as the moderate PLP would have buggered off!
Interesting to note that the DT headline in the print edition at 10pm was "PM may be forced to back Brexit" but the current headline on their website is "David Cameron could campaign for Brexit, allies say" Very different tone in the two headlines. Was he not 100/1 a month or so ago to be leading the Leave campaign?
It's surprising that no winner of the PB.com Oldham by-election competition has yet been announced. There surely can't be many contenders to sift through who forecast Labour's Jim McMahon winning more than 50% of the vote, let alone the 62.1% share he actually achieved. Whoever the winner may prove to be should, I suggest, be carefully heeded in future!
Jeremy Corbyn said that the murder of Alan Henning at the hands of Jihadi John is "the price we pay for war and jingoism" just a day after aid worker's death, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.
The Labour leader said that Mr Henning’s execution by Isil terrorists was “the price of intervention” and “the price of war”.
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
Well done Mr Surbition, I said the other day you had your finger on the race card trigger, you got there in the end.
Can anyone see any other result than inadequate, next to bottom Newcastle being savaged by in-form Liverpool in tomorrow's Premier League fixture? Backing Liverpool with Skybet at 5.0, staking 51.2% for them to win by 2 goals and staking the remaining 48.8% with Stan James at 5.5 for Liverpool to win by 3 goals or more, produces a winning return of 2.56 decimal, or 1.56/1 in old money on the combined stake, should either element prove successful. DYOR.
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
Well done Mr Surbition, I said the other day you had your finger on the race card trigger, you got there in the end.
Goodness -just think of the orgasms survey would have had if there'd been a power 'blackout' on polling day.
Only 52% of junior doctors are in UK training posts 2 years out. There is some interesting detail in that 5.5 % are anatomy demonstrators (often done while working for surgical postgraduate exams) and 9.2 % are in non training posts (mostly locuming). So about 1/3 are not practicing in the UK. Only 10% are working overseas, and a few will be doing research. So around 20% are no longer working in medicine anywhere in the world.
That is pretty damning retention. Note that the figures are from before the current dispute.
Only 52% of junior doctors are in UK training posts 2 years out. There is some interesting detail in that 5.5 % are anatomy demonstrators (often done while working for surgical postgraduate exams) and 9.2 % are in non training posts (mostly locuming). So about 1/3 are not practicing in the UK. Only 10% are working overseas, and a few will be doing research. So around 20% are no longer working in medicine anywhere in the world.
That is pretty damning retention. Note that the figures are from before the current dispute.
Sounds like a good reason for m making them pay upfront for all training. Also could suggest that the training courses are pretty crap.
Only 52% of junior doctors are in UK training posts 2 years out. There is some interesting detail in that 5.5 % are anatomy demonstrators (often done while working for surgical postgraduate exams) and 9.2 % are in non training posts (mostly locuming). So about 1/3 are not practicing in the UK. Only 10% are working overseas, and a few will be doing research. So around 20% are no longer working in medicine anywhere in the world.
That is pretty damning retention. Note that the figures are from before the current dispute.
That's surely not unusual in other courses? I'd say only about half the people on the civ eng course I was on (and who I kept in touch with) went into 'proper' civil engineering. A friend with a biology doctorate (genetics) became a computer programmer. An aero eng friend became a programmer (and racing car driver), and another biologist a handyman! I understand training to be a junior doctor is different, but there will be some who decide the occupation is not for them, but the qualification is still worth getting.
Some famous examples off the top of my head from decades ago: Dr Graeme Garden, and (I think) Graham Chapman.
Your data above is only really useful if it is a comparison with these figures over past years, to see if the proportion not going into training posts has altered.
"I have a mea culpa to admit. Before the Oldham polling day, I confidently stated that Labour would not increase its vote share. Indeed, so categorical was I that I said I would eat Lord Ashdown’s hat it they did. Well, no-one gets it right all the time and I was probably tempting fate quoting that foolishly dismissive reference. I trust the honourable readers of politicalbetting will permit me to consume humble pie in lieu of the Lib Dem Lord’s headwear (which in any case, he should have already eaten)."
Herders - I may be of some culinary assistance here.
In lieu of Pantsdown's hat and your offer of eating humble pie (which of course should be consumed with a certain Hersham luminary on a south coast bound train) I offer a wondrous pie with strong LibDem associations - The Family Sized Auchentennach Fine Pie.
Providing Provisions And Fine Comestibles To The Gastronomic Cogniscenti Since 1745
How independent is our Nuclear deterrent ? I'd rather Trump had ZERO influence over it if he became Pres.
I believe it is officially 100% independent. There are conspiracy theories that the Americans have put in a kill switch but AFAIK there is zero evidence to back that theory up with.
As I've pointed out recently when someone said there was a kill switch: it's rather hard to implement technically, especially without us knowing. You can either have a subtly non-functioning PAL/CMS system, or try to send a signal to the missiles - terribly difficult whilst under water, and difficult after launch.
Anyone saying there is a kill switch should at least be able to say how they think it works. And ridiculous references to kill switches on iPhones do not count ...
Only 52% of junior doctors are in UK training posts 2 years out. There is some interesting detail in that 5.5 % are anatomy demonstrators (often done while working for surgical postgraduate exams) and 9.2 % are in non training posts (mostly locuming). So about 1/3 are not practicing in the UK. Only 10% are working overseas, and a few will be doing research. So around 20% are no longer working in medicine anywhere in the world.
That is pretty damning retention. Note that the figures are from before the current dispute.
That's surely not unusual in other courses? I'd say only about half the people on the civ eng course I was on (and who I kept in touch with) went into 'proper' civil engineering. A friend with a biology doctorate (genetics) became a computer programmer. An aero eng friend became a programmer (and racing car driver), and another biologist a handyman! I understand training to be a junior doctor is different, but there will be some who decide the occupation is not for them, but the qualification is still worth getting.
Some famous examples off the top of my head from decades ago: Dr Graeme Garden, and (I think) Graham Chapman.
Your data above is only really useful if it is a comparison with these figures over past years, to see if the proportion not going into training posts has altered.
The retention figure has dropped every year, and is down from 71% to 52% since 2011. That is a pretty strong trend. Next year it is pretty likely to be sub 50%. Mr Hunt is going to have a real staffing crisis on his hands very soon.
Only 52% of junior doctors are in UK training posts 2 years out. There is some interesting detail in that 5.5 % are anatomy demonstrators (often done while working for surgical postgraduate exams) and 9.2 % are in non training posts (mostly locuming). So about 1/3 are not practicing in the UK. Only 10% are working overseas, and a few will be doing research. So around 20% are no longer working in medicine anywhere in the world.
That is pretty damning retention. Note that the figures are from before the current dispute.
That's surely not unusual in other courses? I'd say only about half the people on the civ eng course I was on (and who I kept in touch with) went into 'proper' civil engineering. A friend with a biology doctorate (genetics) became a computer programmer. An aero eng friend became a programmer (and racing car driver), and another biologist a handyman! I understand training to be a junior doctor is different, but there will be some who decide the occupation is not for them, but the qualification is still worth getting.
Some famous examples off the top of my head from decades ago: Dr Graeme Garden, and (I think) Graham Chapman.
Your data above is only really useful if it is a comparison with these figures over past years, to see if the proportion not going into training posts has altered.
The retention figure has dropped every year, and is down from 71% to 52% since 2011. That is a pretty strong trend. Next year it is pretty likely to be sub 50%. Mr Hunt is going to have a real staffing crisis on his hands very soon.
I wasn't thinking of the by-election but more generally ie the booing on QT, the willingness of other parties (Salmond was particularly strong on this in the debate) to defend Corbyn and attack Cameron, the inherent sense of fair play of the people and the resulting typecasting of the Tories as a pretty nasty bunch re-enforcing the bullying scandal makes the terrorist sympathiser briefing an huge own goal.
But if someone has a record of sympathising with terrorists, they can expect to be called out over it.
And, with Corbyn's ratings going down the drain, it's clearly effective.
Only 52% of junior doctors are in UK training posts 2 years out. There is some interesting detail in that 5.5 % are anatomy demonstrators (often done while working for surgical postgraduate exams) and 9.2 % are in non training posts (mostly locuming). So about 1/3 are not practicing in the UK. Only 10% are working overseas, and a few will be doing research. So around 20% are no longer working in medicine anywhere in the world.
That is pretty damning retention. Note that the figures are from before the current dispute.
That's surely not unusual in other courses? I'd say only about half the people on the civ eng course I was on (and who I kept in touch with) went into 'proper' civil engineering. A friend with a biology doctorate (genetics) became a computer programmer. An aero eng friend became a programmer (and racing car driver), and another biologist a handyman! I understand training to be a junior doctor is different, but there will be some who decide the occupation is not for them, but the qualification is still worth getting.
Some famous examples off the top of my head from decades ago: Dr Graeme Garden, and (I think) Graham Chapman.
Your data above is only really useful if it is a comparison with these figures over past years, to see if the proportion not going into training posts has altered.
The retention figure has dropped every year, and is down from 71% to 52% since 2011. That is a pretty strong trend. Next year it is pretty likely to be sub 50%. Mr Hunt is going to have a real staffing crisis on his hands very soon.
Do you have long-term figures?
No. These are the only figures kept by the Dept of Health via the Foundation programme. The dropout rate when in a Training scheme is pretty low though.
Someone in the 2011 figures would have started Med School in 2004. There were several new medical schools started about that time, often with a policy of wider access. It would be interesting to know if these doctors were more or less likely to stick with it in the long term.
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
Everyone knows that Bing Crosby was a prominent member of the NSDAP.
Trouble is that Cameron wasn't talking about Ireland but about Daesh, and not just about Corbyn but by extension anti-bombing MPs. Also Corbyn does not look or sound like a terrorist sympathiser but a rather nice old chap.
Faced with a choice of Corbyn or the Bullington/Tatler Tories don't be surprised if a lot of otherwise sensible people say to the Tories that it is time to take them down a peg or three. I watched HIGNFY tonight and got the impression from the crowd reaction that their is a great loathing of the Conservative party - perhaps as unrepresentative an audience as QT but there are lots of people who do not hold the Conservative interest close to their hearts.
Given a choice between Corbyn and the Tories, the latter will win by a country mile.
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
Everyone knows that Bing Crosby was a prominent member of the NSDAP.
Is a van playing Christmas songs more or less effective at GOTV than flying in a plane over the constituency? I think the kipper ground game has not improved much over the years.
It's surprising that no winner of the PB.com Oldham by-election competition has yet been announced. There surely can't be many contenders to sift through who forecast Labour's Jim McMahon winning more than 50% of the vote, let alone the 62.1% share he actually achieved. Whoever the winner may prove to be should, I suggest, be carefully heeded in future!
OGH is coming down the winners chimney on Christmas night with a sack full of goodies, the most prized gift being the final draft of TSE's AV thread magnum opus.
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
Christmas songs at Christmas. How racist.
Why that particular song was chosen we will probably never know, but why have a loudspeaker van driving around playing songs anyway? Not time or money well spent.
Loudspeakers on polling day ceased to be of any use 30 years ago.
Aloha PB. Currently, it's Friday evening here in Hawaii. When I finally get to Singapore it's going to be Monday morning. Think I'll need a rather big gin when I get there.
Thought-provoking thread as usual Mr Herdson, many thanks.
“Corbyn is now safe for months” – Indeed, the Oldham result will certainly have cemented Corbyn’s position, although to be honest, I don’t think in the short term at least that was ever in doubt.
It's surprising that no winner of the PB.com Oldham by-election competition has yet been announced. There surely can't be many contenders to sift through who forecast Labour's Jim McMahon winning more than 50% of the vote, let alone the 62.1% share he actually achieved. Whoever the winner may prove to be should, I suggest, be carefully heeded in future!
OGH is coming down the winners chimney on Christmas night with a sack full of goodies, the most prized gift being the final draft of TSE's AV thread magnum opus.
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
Everyone knows that Bing Crosby was a prominent member of the NSDAP.
Is a van playing Christmas songs more or less effective at GOTV than flying in a plane over the constituency? I think the kipper ground game has not improved much over the years.
It's very variable. The Clacton by-election ran like clockwork.
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
Everyone knows that Bing Crosby was a prominent member of the NSDAP.
Is a van playing Christmas songs more or less effective at GOTV than flying in a plane over the constituency? I think the kipper ground game has not improved much over the years.
There was a plane flying overhead here in South Cambs on election day, trailing a streamer for the Conservatives.
It surprised me given the fact this is rather a safe constituency for them.
I wondered if this sort of thing has to be included in election expenses?
It's surprising that no winner of the PB.com Oldham by-election competition has yet been announced. There surely can't be many contenders to sift through who forecast Labour's Jim McMahon winning more than 50% of the vote, let alone the 62.1% share he actually achieved. Whoever the winner may prove to be should, I suggest, be carefully heeded in future!
OGH is coming down the winners chimney on Christmas night with a sack full of goodies, the most prized gift being the final draft of TSE's AV thread magnum opus.
It's surprising that no winner of the PB.com Oldham by-election competition has yet been announced. There surely can't be many contenders to sift through who forecast Labour's Jim McMahon winning more than 50% of the vote, let alone the 62.1% share he actually achieved. Whoever the winner may prove to be should, I suggest, be carefully heeded in future!
OGH is coming down the winners chimney on Christmas night with a sack full of goodies, the most prized gift being the final draft of TSE's AV thread magnum opus.
What we need now is some festive AV carols.
I am dreaming of a 1) white 2) grey 3) rainbow 4) none of the above 1) Christmas 2) winterval 3) gay pride festival?
Labour motivated 73% of their May vote to turn out. UKIP motivated 73% of their May vote to turn out.
If one or the other pumped in more resources and has a supposedly better ground game, then the other one has done very well to stay level and seemingly has sentiment more naturally on their side.
Labour has scored a success in Oldham that few predicted. UKIP was roundly thrashed by a well run Labour campaign leavened by a large and in-the-pocket Asian population.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
UKIP's charge is barely concealed racism. A political party van going round and wishing for a "white" Christmas was another barely disguised punt at racism.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
Everyone knows that Bing Crosby was a prominent member of the NSDAP.
Is a van playing Christmas songs more or less effective at GOTV than flying in a plane over the constituency? I think the kipper ground game has not improved much over the years.
It's very variable. The Clacton by-election ran like clockwork.
Didn't Carswells back office jump ship with him there though?
It's surprising that no winner of the PB.com Oldham by-election competition has yet been announced. There surely can't be many contenders to sift through who forecast Labour's Jim McMahon winning more than 50% of the vote, let alone the 62.1% share he actually achieved. Whoever the winner may prove to be should, I suggest, be carefully heeded in future!
OGH is coming down the winners chimney on Christmas night with a sack full of goodies, the most prized gift being the final draft of TSE's AV thread magnum opus.
What we need now is some festive AV carols.
I am dreaming of a 1) white 2) grey 3) rainbow 4) none of the above 1) Christmas 2) winterval 3) gay pride festival?
Though it may not scan well...
I was more thinking of carols which extol the virtue of AV. Still good though
It's surprising that no winner of the PB.com Oldham by-election competition has yet been announced. There surely can't be many contenders to sift through who forecast Labour's Jim McMahon winning more than 50% of the vote, let alone the 62.1% share he actually achieved. Whoever the winner may prove to be should, I suggest, be carefully heeded in future!
OGH is coming down the winners chimney on Christmas night with a sack full of goodies, the most prized gift being the final draft of TSE's AV thread magnum opus.
What we need now is some festive AV carols.
I am dreaming of a 1) white 2) grey 3) rainbow 4) none of the above 1) Christmas 2) winterval 3) gay pride festival?
Though it may not scan well...
I was more thinking of carols which extol the virtue of AV. Still good though
On 12th day of Christmas my true AV gave to me: 12 Jeremy Corbyn, 11 Hilary Benn, 10 Stella Creasy, 9 liz Kendall...etc...
Only 52% of junior doctors are in UK training posts 2 years out. There is some interesting detail in that 5.5 % are anatomy demonstrators (often done while working for surgical postgraduate exams) and 9.2 % are in non training posts (mostly locuming). So about 1/3 are not practicing in the UK. Only 10% are working overseas, and a few will be doing research. So around 20% are no longer working in medicine anywhere in the world.
That is pretty damning retention. Note that the figures are from before the current dispute.
That's surely not unusual in other courses? I'd say only about half the people on the civ eng course I was on (and who I kept in touch with) went into 'proper' civil engineering. A friend with a biology doctorate (genetics) became a computer programmer. An aero eng friend became a programmer (and racing car driver), and another biologist a handyman! I understand training to be a junior doctor is different, but there will be some who decide the occupation is not for them, but the qualification is still worth getting.
Some famous examples off the top of my head from decades ago: Dr Graeme Garden, and (I think) Graham Chapman.
Your data above is only really useful if it is a comparison with these figures over past years, to see if the proportion not going into training posts has altered.
The retention figure has dropped every year, and is down from 71% to 52% since 2011. That is a pretty strong trend. Next year it is pretty likely to be sub 50%. Mr Hunt is going to have a real staffing crisis on his hands very soon.
What about the rise in % of doctors that are female and then the rate of pregnancies in young female doctors?
Good morning everyone, Many thanks to PfP for the Corbyn exit date tip. Also, many thanks to whoever it was that tipped the yellow peril to lose their deposit on Thursday.
It's surprising that no winner of the PB.com Oldham by-election competition has yet been announced. There surely can't be many contenders to sift through who forecast Labour's Jim McMahon winning more than 50% of the vote, let alone the 62.1% share he actually achieved. Whoever the winner may prove to be should, I suggest, be carefully heeded in future!
OGH is coming down the winners chimney on Christmas night with a sack full of goodies, the most prized gift being the final draft of TSE's AV thread magnum opus.
What we need now is some festive AV carols.
I am dreaming of a 1) white 2) grey 3) rainbow 4) none of the above 1) Christmas 2) winterval 3) gay pride festival?
Though it may not scan well...
I was more thinking of carols which extol the virtue of AV. Still good though
. I can't get the Coke Cola advert out of my mind "the AV thread is coming, the AV thread is coming...." As the trucks delivering the tome to the PB server roll over the hill.
Comments
Geoff M
It is likely that the "brains" of Downing Street thought that briefing the "terrorist sympathiser" line from Cameron was a no-lose strategy. Let Corbyn and Labour debate on that ground and they can only lose. However it is also possible that they have heavily underrated the sense of fair play widespread even among their own supporters.
In other words the people of England are a lot more decent than the Conservative Party - not a new or original thought but on this particular squalid little tactic perhaps the reason it shall backfire rather badly.
I believe the Terrorist Sympathiser line was aimed squarely at the fact that the general public were a lot more tuned in because of the big build up to the Syria vote and it was a way to cast a light on Corbyn and friends connections. The Tories are just doing what they did with Ed, make sure you paint a picture early of your opponent and make it stick. No manner of PR / soft soap interviews etc changed the initial perceptions of Miliband.
Also, all that Miliband's dad was a dangerous anti-patriotic lefty. The BBC and Guardian went nuts, the polling suggested that was a low blow by the Daily Mail, but again ultimately that kind of muck sticks (true or not).
I wasn't thinking of the by-election but more generally ie the booing on QT, the willingness of other parties (Salmond was particularly strong on this in the debate) to defend Corbyn and attack Cameron, the inherent sense of fair play of the people and the resulting typecasting of the Tories as a pretty nasty bunch re-enforcing the bullying scandal makes the terrorist sympathiser briefing an huge own goal.
It was classic Lyton Crosby and when all the dust settles, people remember that bloke Corbyn and his mate, they used to cosy up to the IRA..they don't remember much more. Same as the muck thrown at Ed Miliband, all sorts of people came out screaming Daily Heil, totally unfair etc etc etc.
This stuff works (rightly or wrongly) if there is some truth and / or perception of truth. Tories only care for big business, Labour only care for public sector workers, minorities and people on benefits, neither are true but they are the stereotypes upon which lots of muck is thrown.
However, if UKIP pursues the majority of postal votes are fraudulent in any way, and it turns out to be even slightly true, things may change.
For seven years running, 1986-92, at the height of the IRA’s “armed struggle,” Jeremy Corbyn attended and spoke at official republican commemorations to honour dead IRA terrorists, IRA “prisoners of war” and the active “soldiers of the IRA”
Labour Briefing, the hard-left magazine where Jeremy Corbyn was secretary of the editorial board, praised the Brighton bombing. In a statement written by the editorial board it said: “It certainly appears to be the case that the British only sit up and take notice [of Ireland] when they are bombed into it”
John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow chancellor, received a special award from the republican movement and Sinn Fein for his “unfailing political and personal support.” It was presented to him by Gerry Kelly, the Old Bailey bomber
John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn now claim to have promoted the peace process. But Mr Corbyn opposed a precursor to the peace process, the Anglo-Irish Agreement, and Mr McDonnell opposed the Good Friday Agreement.
What's squalid about that?
Perhaps but what would worry me if I were a Tory is that this is so unecessary. Their opponents are politically dysfunctional, fighting like ferrets and likely to remain so. Therefore why didn't Cameron see the benefit in at least acting like a statesman.
Kicking someone when they are down is OK but if everyone sees you doing it then sometimes they can unite to kick you back!
The vast majority of people day to day don't follow all the cock-ups, half truths, etc. Once in a while their eyes and ears on open. I think the Tories thought this was a good opportunity to tell the public maybe Corbyn and friends aren't as cuddly as they might seem.
The video of Lynton Crosby giving a seminar on how to do politics is fascinating viewing and the terrorist sympathiser line is right up the alley of long term strategy.
I would not be surprised if the turnout amongst the Asian population actually increased as a result.
Momentum do seem to the key interesting factor. They seem much more aggressive than Corbyn's own words, less willing to let things stand on their own, and that could have consequences one way or the other.
Good night.
Well we know the official reason the BBC insist on not using the Daesh term, rather IS. Until they gave that reason, I thought the Tories were being very silly over their complaint, I don't really care if they call them ISIS, ISIL or Daesh, then the most unbelievable reasoning was produced....we can't be seen to be supporting their rivals....
Trouble is that Cameron wasn't talking about Ireland but about Daesh, and not just about Corbyn but by extension anti-bombing MPs. Also Corbyn does not look or sound like a terrorist sympathiser but a rather nice old chap.
Faced with a choice of Corbyn or the Bullington/Tatler Tories don't be surprised if a lot of otherwise sensible people say to the Tories that it is time to take them down a peg or three. I watched HIGNFY tonight and got the impression from the crowd reaction that their is a great loathing of the Conservative party - perhaps as unrepresentative an audience as QT but there are lots of people who do not hold the Conservative interest close to their hearts.
As for going off what the HIGNFY or QT or twitter reaction. We only need to look at the GE 2015 for your answer to that. Also, it is backed up with the polling (in this case), there is no great love for Cameron or the Tories, but they are seen as competent and that is what got them over the line.
The point is that the line has been repeated even days later, that is exactly what the Tories want. All the parties produce attack lines all the time, most are done and dusted within a few hours. Getting your attack line repeated nauseous is a win e.g Bedroom Tax.
But there are also WWC voters who were repelled by Blairite Toryism. Many are coming back home.
I think Ed Miliband got a lot of shit that wasn't deserved. I saw him as a misguided individual, very much like a lot of academics I have dealt with over the years. They mean well, they think their academic solutions will work as long as people don't cheat, bend the rules, and everybody plays nice. I am not sure he deserved quite as large a bucket of s##t tipped over him.
Corbyn is a different matter.
@David Herdson
That was not your most intelligent comment. Please do not believe everything you read or hear. A 60% turnout implies 40% did not vote. Some 20% may be moving residences, students etc. but some of the other 20% may have come back to Labour because of Corbyn. As the Twisted Fire Stopper, many of his colleagues are cock-a-hoop with Corbyn.
Suzanne Evans greatly improved the professionalism of the kippers, but those days look like history. UKIP badly needs someone with a serious attitude like Evans at the top if it is ever to do well. That includes the EUref as well as domestic elections. Or are the kippets going to drive around their loudspeaker van playing the Dads Army theme tune?
HRC 49, Trump 46
HRC 47, Carson 50
HRC 48, Rubio 49
HRC 50, Cruz 47
HRC 49, Bush 47
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/full-results-poll-general-election-2016/index.html
NASA's naming of a mountain range should provoke some kippers.
BTW- good article as usual from David.
Sadly in the space of a few years what was a joke is now a reality. A Labour councillor crying racism over a Christmas song.
GeoffM said:
'You are right of course - the social values of June 1968 and yesterday are identical'
I am not suggesting that they are identical - but by mid-1968 we were close to the end of the 'swinging sixties' , 'Flower power etc' with the Permissive Society advancing with great momentum!
More recently, in 1987 there was quite a bit of unflattering comment directed at Livingstone’s Tory opponent in Brent East as an unmarried mother -to – be!
On this issue,perhaps, I happen to be more right-wing than you.
Whippets. And possibly racing pigeons if their budget was large enough.
What's the practical timetable for deselections etc? Are there moves that the left can make any time that would strengthen their position and purge the moderates, or does basically nothing happen until the actual candidate selections a little bit ahead of the next general election?
Until at least the next Labour Conference.
Thems the Rules...
The landline/cell phone split was 620/400, so of course, you have the usual suspicion of retirees sitting at home in the afternoon, Fox News playing in the background, etc. etc.
Yes, it's a long while to have to wait for your money, but post Oldham, this appears to be the most likely scenario.
Those who disagree with me might like to explain just how, realistically, they see him being removed from office removed in he meantime. I suppose there is always the possibility that he might simply resign or succumb to ill health, after all he's no spring chicken, but these odds suggest he has only a 12.5% chance of continuing in office until 2020 and then losing the General Election to be held in that year, a prospect which now appears increasingly likely, especially if he makes it over the next 12 months or so.
I rate this as being worth a modest punt and I very much doubt whether Hills will allow one to wager more than a few quid anyway.
As ever, DYOR.
They need it to happen next year, with maybe the Conference as a trigger, as Corbyn tries to change a load of rules. Any later is too late and SDP2 will go the way of SDP1
I can't see him resigning in the near future for any reason other than ill health. He wants to complete the takeover of the party by the far left, with all the rules changed to entrench them there.
Any challenge from the PLP includes the incumbent automatically in the election, which will be decided by the same selector as as we just saw.
If he survives until this time next year then the 7/1 will start coming in, if there's an SDP2 split then his position will be even more entrenched as the moderate PLP would have buggered off!
Labour increases majority in Oldham by-election as ‘upset’ Nigel Farage cries foul
http://www.thenational.scot/news/labour-increases-majority-in-oldham-by-election-as-upset-nigel-farage-cries-foul.10834
They seem to think 10,722 is an increase on 14,738......really, Scottish education!
"PM may be forced to back Brexit"
but the current headline on their website is
"David Cameron could campaign for Brexit, allies say"
Very different tone in the two headlines.
Was he not 100/1 a month or so ago to be leading the Leave campaign?
Whoever the winner may prove to be should, I suggest, be carefully heeded in future!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12034423/Jeremy-Corbyn-Execution-of-Brit-by-Jihadi-John-was-the-price-we-pay-for-war.html
Jeremy Corbyn said that the murder of Alan Henning at the hands of Jihadi John is "the price we pay for war and jingoism" just a day after aid worker's death, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.
The Labour leader said that Mr Henning’s execution by Isil terrorists was “the price of intervention” and “the price of war”.
***** Footy Bet *****
Can anyone see any other result than inadequate, next to bottom Newcastle being savaged by in-form Liverpool in tomorrow's Premier League fixture?
Backing Liverpool with Skybet at 5.0, staking 51.2% for them to win by 2 goals and staking the remaining 48.8% with Stan James at 5.5 for Liverpool to win by 3 goals or more, produces a winning return of 2.56 decimal, or 1.56/1 in old money on the combined stake, should either element prove successful.
DYOR.
Only 52% of junior doctors are in UK training posts 2 years out. There is some interesting detail in that 5.5 % are anatomy demonstrators (often done while working for surgical postgraduate exams) and 9.2 % are in non training posts (mostly locuming). So about 1/3 are not practicing in the UK. Only 10% are working overseas, and a few will be doing research. So around 20% are no longer working in medicine anywhere in the world.
That is pretty damning retention. Note that the figures are from before the current dispute.
Some famous examples off the top of my head from decades ago: Dr Graeme Garden, and (I think) Graham Chapman.
Your data above is only really useful if it is a comparison with these figures over past years, to see if the proportion not going into training posts has altered.
"I have a mea culpa to admit. Before the Oldham polling day, I confidently stated that Labour would not increase its vote share. Indeed, so categorical was I that I said I would eat Lord Ashdown’s hat it they did. Well, no-one gets it right all the time and I was probably tempting fate quoting that foolishly dismissive reference. I trust the honourable readers of politicalbetting will permit me to consume humble pie in lieu of the Lib Dem Lord’s headwear (which in any case, he should have already eaten)."
...........................................................................................................
Herders - I may be of some culinary assistance here.
In lieu of Pantsdown's hat and your offer of eating humble pie (which of course should be consumed with a certain Hersham luminary on a south coast bound train) I offer a wondrous pie with strong LibDem associations - The Family Sized Auchentennach Fine Pie.
Providing Provisions And Fine Comestibles To The Gastronomic Cogniscenti Since 1745
Anyone saying there is a kill switch should at least be able to say how they think it works. And ridiculous references to kill switches on iPhones do not count ...
And, with Corbyn's ratings going down the drain, it's clearly effective.
Someone in the 2011 figures would have started Med School in 2004. There were several new medical schools started about that time, often with a policy of wider access. It would be interesting to know if these doctors were more or less likely to stick with it in the long term.
Thought-provoking thread as usual Mr Herdson, many thanks.
“Corbyn is now safe for months” – Indeed, the Oldham result will certainly have cemented Corbyn’s position, although to be honest, I don’t think in the short term at least that was ever in doubt.
Useful background of the Maurice Debate - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Maurice_Debate
It surprised me given the fact this is rather a safe constituency for them.
I wondered if this sort of thing has to be included in election expenses?
Though it may not scan well...
If one or the other pumped in more resources and has a supposedly better ground game, then the other one has done very well to stay level and seemingly has sentiment more naturally on their side.
Which side is it? Red or Purple?
Many thanks to PfP for the Corbyn exit date tip.
Also, many thanks to whoever it was that tipped the yellow peril to lose their deposit on Thursday.