politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Syria – the big debate goes on

JosiasJessop said:

I thought (and might be wrong) it is to remove the threat from ISIS and alN in the short term, and in the long term to support the Vienna peace talks in working towards a transitional government that might be able to bring peace to Syria.

I am not going to suggest that you might be wrong, I merely point out that your idea of the end game doesn't seem to tie up very closely with what HMG is suggesting in Parliament this very afternoon.

On more important matters: did you download the Elite:Horizons Beta and if so is it ny good?

JosiasJessop said:

williamglenn said:

Danny565 said:

Pulpstar said:

Danny565 said:

I have to admit I'm worried about some of the Lab MPs who are supporting the airstrikes. Pretty much all the candidates for a sensible Lab leader before 2020 (Benn, Johnson, Cooper) seem to be supporting it, but I fear this will prove to be a red-line for even many moderate Labour members.

(Though speaking personally, even as someone against these airstrikes, I wouldn't hold this against a potential leader as long as I was persuaded they genuinely thought it was the right thing to do, rather than that they were doing it just to "make a point" about Corbyn.)

Would you be in favour of bombing IS if London, and not Paris was attacked ?

I won't lie, if Britain was attacked then my gut/emotional reaction probably would be that we have to "do something". Hell, that was even my initial reaction a bit immediately after Paris.

But the more I think about it, the more I don't see how this will achieve anything to actually help defeat ISIL, other than that immediate gratification that we're "doing something". As (I think) Foxinsox said earlier, this feels rather like whacking a hornets' nest a few times, before running away after we've got them all angry.

Taking part in a coordinated effort, for the first time, between NATO forces and Russia, to tackle a real threat to our security provides a historic opportunity to fix the fault lines that were left after the Cold War and bring Russia back into the family of European nations. That prize alone is so compelling that whatever the merits of the current strategy against IS, we should not stand aside and leave it to our allies.

What do you think Russia's end game in Syria is? Do you think it is the same end-game as the NATO countries' ? Which, if either, is right?

The answer to the former can be found in the targets Russia has mainly been bombing: they want to preserve Assad's power in his core heartland, which is strategic for Russia. The answer to the second is to banish ISIS.

I'd say our end-game is more vital than Russia's.

If that is our end-game and it is more vital then it is in our interests to concede to Russia on the former point.

Luckyguy1983 said:

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

Will PB be using the word Daesh from now on?

I don't really like the term - I find it confusing and grammatically ambiguous - but it really pisses them off, so I might use it for that reason and that alone.

Does it really piss them off though? People who celebrate how barbaric they are don't like a name?

Who cares if it pisses them off ffs? I don't get people's need to demonstrate that they are jolly cross with a murderous death cult. It should be a given.

Well, quite. I don't see that it matters what we call them, and certainly not what they would prefer we would call them.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Thompson, even if they don't put their heads above the parapet, there's 'nowhere to hide'.

Actually I agree with the Corbynistas on this point. In a vote such as this there ought to be nowhere to bloody hide. Medical or personal grounds (Gapes/Debbonaire) should be the only reason not to head through either the yay or nay lobby.

Full credit to Kevin Foster on this who is explaining his reasons for voting "for" to his largely hostile Facebook questioners.

AlastairMeeks said:

@JesseRodriguez ·
NBC News: ISIS releases video showing beheading of alleged Russian spy

‏@calmsnbc · 10m10 minutes ago

Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez
Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.

Will the Sun be using Morecombe and Wise "Bring me (Canned) sunshine" by the end of the week as a headline ?

Wanderer said:

Incendiary from Woodcock

What's he saying? Crap hotel wifi so can't stream.

@PolhomeEditor: Labour MP John Woodcock: "I will do everything I can to stop my party becoming the cheerleader for an angry, intolerant pacifism."

Mr. Pulpstar, that wasn't the way it's been reported here, though. What was conveyed was Corbyn unveiling his new faux leather substitute offering I Can't Believe It's An Unwhipped Vote.

Labour MPs can vote any way they like. And Corbyn will take note. As will Maomentum, Stop the War and anyone thinking of deselecting.

Scott_P said:

@PolhomeEditor: Labour MP John Woodcock: "I will do everything I can to stop my party becoming the cheerleader for an angry, intolerant pacifism."

*claps*

The_Apocalypse said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@JesseRodriguez ·
NBC News: ISIS releases video showing beheading of alleged Russian spy

‏@calmsnbc · 10m10 minutes ago

Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez
Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.

What a bunch of idiots. They want to wage war against Russia as well? These people really are cruising for a bruising, as my grandma would say.

Thats their plan. The great big battle to end all great big battles. The thing is Putin isn't scared of going to war nor too concerned about what parliament / public might think if some Russian (or civilians) get killed. All ISIS need to do now is poke the Chinese.

Interesting to speculate how the French Socialist Party will react, when they hear half the shadow cabinet rejected their pleas to provide support.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/672111007079231488

FrancisUrquhart said:

The_Apocalypse said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@JesseRodriguez ·
NBC News: ISIS releases video showing beheading of alleged Russian spy

‏@calmsnbc · 10m10 minutes ago

Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez
Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.

What a bunch of idiots. They want to wage war against Russia as well? These people really are cruising for a bruising, as my grandma would say.

Thats their plan. The great big battle to end all great big battles. The thing is Putin isn't scared of going to war nor too concerned about what parliament / public might think if some Russian (or civilians) get killed. All ISIS need to do now is poke the Chinese.

Don't they worship Putin in Russia as if he's some-kind of demi-god? Though Russia has never struck me as a massively democratic place under Putin.

ISIS are idiots if they believe they can win a battle vs an enemy which has Russia, the rest of Europe, China and the US on the same side.

Wanderer said:

RobD said:

Wanderer said:

Incendiary from Woodcock

What's he saying? Crap hotel wifi so can't stream.

Said that the party mustn't promote "angry intolerant pacifism" and (this is what I thought was Incendiary) that members of the front bench were doing just that.

And also accused them of putting myriad preconditions on action they know won't be met and that they would never support intervention in any circumstances (in essence calling them false).

I'd never heard of Woodcock, but I'd guess we now know one of those people always giving the media a blow by blow of angry PLP exchanges.

The_Apocalypse said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The_Apocalypse said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@JesseRodriguez ·
NBC News: ISIS releases video showing beheading of alleged Russian spy

‏@calmsnbc · 10m10 minutes ago

Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez
Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.

What a bunch of idiots. They want to wage war against Russia as well? These people really are cruising for a bruising, as my grandma would say.

Thats their plan. The great big battle to end all great big battles. The thing is Putin isn't scared of going to war nor too concerned about what parliament / public might think if some Russian (or civilians) get killed. All ISIS need to do now is poke the Chinese.

Don't they worship Putin in Russia as if he's some-kind of demi-god? Though Russia has never struck me as a massively democratic place under Putin.

ISIS are idiots if they believe they can win a battle vs an enemy which has Russia, the rest of Europe, China and the US on the same side.

That was my point. While the west are hamstrung by Iraq, cost, public reactions etc, Putin can do what he likes...and we know he likes a good dust up.

Ms. Apocalypse, I'm inclined to agree.

That said, nobody expected Cao Cao to lose at Red Cliffs. We must hope Daesh doesn't have a Kongming-style genius.

MTimT said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

taffys said:

''I fear it's becoming ever clearer that the West is weak, and scared, and that ultimately ISIS will win.''

Scared maybe, weak no.

100,000 well armed well supported Western troops would go through ISIS for a short cut. Add 100,000 Russians and its game over.

I think its more 'feeling guilty' than either of the above.

And do they then just stay forever?

Ultimately, one has to address the grievances in Sunni areas on both Iraq and Syria if ISIS is to have no sanctuary and support in the long term. Perhaps Biden was not so wrong to suggest carving up Iraq into its constituent parts. Perhaps we should add Syria into the mix to create new state borders more reflective of ethhic, cultural and religious reality.

While I hate identity politics within Western states, sometimes it is the obvious way to solve internecine problems.

Agreed. Although it will invite the tiresome talk of "colonialism", part of me does think the West needs to take it upon ourselves to redraw the map in that part of the world, into countries that will make for a more stable settlement in the long run.

Danny565 said:

MTimT said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

taffys said:

''I fear it's becoming ever clearer that the West is weak, and scared, and that ultimately ISIS will win.''

Scared maybe, weak no.

100,000 well armed well supported Western troops would go through ISIS for a short cut. Add 100,000 Russians and its game over.

I think its more 'feeling guilty' than either of the above.

And do they then just stay forever?

Ultimately, one has to address the grievances in Sunni areas on both Iraq and Syria if ISIS is to have no sanctuary and support in the long term. Perhaps Biden was not so wrong to suggest carving up Iraq into its constituent parts. Perhaps we should add Syria into the mix to create new state borders more reflective of ethhic, cultural and religious reality.

While I hate identity politics within Western states, sometimes it is the obvious way to solve internecine problems.

Agreed. Although it will invite the tiresome talk of "colonialism",

That crops up no matter what we do, so no harm in adding to the perception.

kle4 said:

Wanderer said:

RobD said:

Wanderer said:

Incendiary from Woodcock

What's he saying? Crap hotel wifi so can't stream.

Said that the party mustn't promote "angry intolerant pacifism" and (this is what I thought was Incendiary) that members of the front bench were doing just that.

And also accused them of putting myriad preconditions on action they know won't be met and that they would never support intervention in any circumstances (in essence calling them false).

I'd never heard of Woodcock, but I'd guess we now know one of those people always giving the media a blow by blow of angry PLP exchanges.

Could be. He's the member for Barrow and Furness where new Trident subs would be built. Before the election he promised that he'd resign if a Labour government did not build four new subs. http://labourlist.org/2015/04/john-woodcock-says-he-will-quit-as-mp-if-labour-dont-support-full-trident-renewal/

Woodcock was heckled by well-respected shadow City Minister (!!) Richard Burgon - one of the dimmest bulbs in the labour pack.

So busy on STW events, I wonder if he's found which City the City is in yet.

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 15m15 minutes ago
Not content with encouraging a march on his own party's HQ yesterday @RichardBurgon is now heckling his own colleague @JWoodcockMP.

taffys said:

''While the west are hamstrung by Iraq, cost, public reactions etc, Putin can do what he likes...and we know he likes a good dust up.''

You mean Russia does not have to pay for diversity officers?

LOL

TheScreamingEagles said:

A load of Corbynites have hijacked my twitter notifications and are telling me that Alan Johnson is a class traitor and a Tory. Dear Me, what a world I live in these days.

TSE = Tory!

The_Apocalypse said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The_Apocalypse said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@JesseRodriguez ·
NBC News: ISIS releases video showing beheading of alleged Russian spy

‏@calmsnbc · 10m10 minutes ago

Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez
Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.

What a bunch of idiots. They want to wage war against Russia as well? These people really are cruising for a bruising, as my grandma would say.

Thats their plan. The great big battle to end all great big battles. The thing is Putin isn't scared of going to war nor too concerned about what parliament / public might think if some Russian (or civilians) get killed. All ISIS need to do now is poke the Chinese.

Don't they worship Putin in Russia as if he's some-kind of demi-god? Though Russia has never struck me as a massively democratic place under Putin.

ISIS are idiots if they believe they can win a battle vs an enemy which has Russia, the rest of Europe, China and the US on the same side.

No, they are not idiots.

My understanding of the Islamic idea of armageddon is nil, but if it bears any relationship to the biblical description, they are expecting God to weigh in on their side.

So not idiots, just believers.

The Front National, Sweden Democrats, Party for Freedom, Alternative for Germany, etc., will enjoy a boost if this goes ahead:

Meanwhile, Hungary's prime minister Viktor Oban has claimed Germany is behind a pact to bring 500,000 Syrians directly into the EU.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3342721/Greece-says-calls-eject-Schengen-zone-weak-border-controls-unfair-Hungary-says-Germany-pact-bring-500-000-Syrians-Turkey.html

nigel4england said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

RobD said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Has the UKIP block spoken yet in the debate?

Mark Reckless lost his seat at the GE don't you know ;-)

Who?

I did a thread about Mark Reckless.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/06/22/the-most-important-result-on-may-7th/

Nope - still doing nothing for me.

Perhaps TPD rings a bell?

Total and Permanent Disability option on PHI / Income Protection policies?

Income Protection is the great unsold policy of our time.

That's added to the debate.

Agreed - for the amount of cover it can offer someone, it is a great and under used product albeit the cost often can seem that much more than just life cover - but there's a reason one costs more than the other... it's more likely to happen.

TheScreamingEagles said:

A load of Corbynites have hijacked my twitter notifications and are telling me that Alan Johnson is a class traitor and a Tory. Dear Me, what a world I live in these days.

Really?, the affable postman from Paddington is now a class traitor and Tory scum? - It’s very hard to comprehend the thinking behind these nasty Corbynites.

Mr. SE, saw that earlier today.

Poland was saying it wouldn't accept the quotas (which it voted for, annoying certain other countries who thought it was against) following the Paris attacks. The countries which voted against, such as the Czech Republic, will not necessarily be enamoured with the Chancellor if this occurs.

Ms. Apocalypse, quite. Intriguing that some on both left and right oppose the current proposal because they feel it doesn't go far enough. I think some genuinely believe that, and others are using it as a fig leaf to conceal their own limp position.

Mr. Anorak, is it?

They're zealots. The smallest disagreement is heresy.

Edited extra bit: Miss Cyclefree, yes. At least one person from each of the permanent five UN Security Council members (each of whom has a veto, of course) has been killed.

Danny565 said:

MTimT said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

taffys said:

''I fear it's becoming ever clearer that the West is weak, and scared, and that ultimately ISIS will win.''

Scared maybe, weak no.

100,000 well armed well supported Western troops would go through ISIS for a short cut. Add 100,000 Russians and its game over.

I think its more 'feeling guilty' than either of the above.

And do they then just stay forever?

Ultimately, one has to address the grievances in Sunni areas on both Iraq and Syria if ISIS is to have no sanctuary and support in the long term. Perhaps Biden was not so wrong to suggest carving up Iraq into its constituent parts. Perhaps we should add Syria into the mix to create new state borders more reflective of ethhic, cultural and religious reality.

While I hate identity politics within Western states, sometimes it is the obvious way to solve internecine problems.

Agreed. Although it will invite the tiresome talk of "colonialism", part of me does think the West needs to take it upon ourselves to redraw the map in that part of the world, into countries that will make for a more stable settlement in the long run.

A regional conference, with strong US and - dare I say it - Russian leadership, and all the relevant (good and bad) state players at the table might be able to create new states which make sense without it being a colonial enterprise. The biggest issue would be finding the right Sunni representatives for the new state(s).

MTimT said:

Putin's popularity in Russia is high (80%+ - essentially everyone except the Moscow and St Petersburg middle classes who are outside the kleptocracy) based upon three things, only one of which is sustainable:

1. restoration of law and order
2. good fortune to have presided over a boom in the value of energy exports (currently not so)
3. revival of Soviet - sorry, Russian - pride with the annexation of Crimea.

We have seen with both Afghanistan and Chechnya that Russia is not immune to popular discontent based on body bag counts. A limited number of deaths that are the cost of successful overseas adventures will bolster Putin's popularity. I would expect higher numbers, or deaths resulting from unsuccessful adventures, or terrorism coming home to roost to have a significant adverse impact on his ratings if sustained.

Thanks for your reply. If anything, another military triumph may well add to Putin's popularity.

AnneJGP said:

The_Apocalypse said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The_Apocalypse said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@JesseRodriguez ·
NBC News: ISIS releases video showing beheading of alleged Russian spy

‏@calmsnbc · 10m10 minutes ago

Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez
Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.

What a bunch of idiots. They want to wage war against Russia as well? These people really are cruising for a bruising, as my grandma would say.

Thats their plan. The great big battle to end all great big battles. The thing is Putin isn't scared of going to war nor too concerned about what parliament / public might think if some Russian (or civilians) get killed. All ISIS need to do now is poke the Chinese.

Don't they worship Putin in Russia as if he's some-kind of demi-god? Though Russia has never struck me as a massively democratic place under Putin.

ISIS are idiots if they believe they can win a battle vs an enemy which has Russia, the rest of Europe, China and the US on the same side.

No, they are not idiots.

My understanding of the Islamic idea of armageddon is nil, but if it bears any relationship to the biblical description, they are expecting God to weigh in on their side.

So not idiots, just believers.

If they think that then they are in for a shock.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Anorak, is it?

They're zealots. The smallest disagreement is heresy.

Edited extra bit: Miss Cyclefree, yes. At least one person from each of the permanent five UN Security Council members (each of whom has a veto, of course) has been killed.

I'm afraid your refusal to use quotes has left me in a state of bemusement, Monsieur Dancer. Which comment are you referring to?

Or are you just asking whether I have a winkie?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. SE, saw that earlier today.

Poland was saying it wouldn't accept the quotas (which it voted for, annoying certain other countries who thought it was against) following the Paris attacks. The countries which voted against, such as the Czech Republic, will not necessarily be enamoured with the Chancellor if this occurs.

Ms. Apocalypse, quite. Intriguing that some on both left and right oppose the current proposal because they feel it doesn't go far enough. I think some genuinely believe that, and others are using it as a fig leaf to conceal their own limp position.

Yep, although I think many are just looking for a long-term strategy from Cameron (and they can't really see that at the moment). For the likes of the 'Stop the War coalition', I believe they are the kind of people who would have opposed Britain going to war with Nazi Germany in 1939.

FrancisUrquhart said:

AndyJS said:

That's an insult to dim bulbs.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Woodcock was heckled by well-respected shadow City Minister (!!) Richard Burgon - one of the dimmest bulbs in the labour pack.

So busy on STW events, I wonder if he's found which City the City is in yet.

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 15m15 minutes ago
Not content with encouraging a march on his own party's HQ yesterday @RichardBurgon is now heckling his own colleague @JWoodcockMP.

Standards are really slipping at Oxbridge these days if they let him in.

He went to St John's - clearly they have pretty low standards. (Says an old Queensman)

The_Apocalypse said:

MTimT said:

Putin's popularity in Russia is high (80%+ - essentially everyone except the Moscow and St Petersburg middle classes who are outside the kleptocracy) based upon three things, only one of which is sustainable:

1. restoration of law and order
2. good fortune to have presided over a boom in the value of energy exports (currently not so)
3. revival of Soviet - sorry, Russian - pride with the annexation of Crimea.

We have seen with both Afghanistan and Chechnya that Russia is not immune to popular discontent based on body bag counts. A limited number of deaths that are the cost of successful overseas adventures will bolster Putin's popularity. I would expect higher numbers, or deaths resulting from unsuccessful adventures, or terrorism coming home to roost to have a significant adverse impact on his ratings if sustained.

Thanks for your reply. If anything, another military triumph may well add to Putin's popularity.

I don't think there is much up side to Putin's popularity. All those who could be won over by military triumphs are already in his column. Those against him are those who believe in democracy, freedom of speech and the press, human rights - in particular gay rights, and those who rail against the kleptocracy. I don't see them being won over by successes against ISIS.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Anorak, for the very good reason I meant to reply to Mr. StClare's comment about it being difficult to understand Corbynites.

My apologies.

You have the haddock. I think you know what to do with it.

MTimT said:

The_Apocalypse said:

MTimT said:

Putin's popularity in Russia is high (80%+ - essentially everyone except the Moscow and St Petersburg middle classes who are outside the kleptocracy) based upon three things, only one of which is sustainable:

1. restoration of law and order
2. good fortune to have presided over a boom in the value of energy exports (currently not so)
3. revival of Soviet - sorry, Russian - pride with the annexation of Crimea.

We have seen with both Afghanistan and Chechnya that Russia is not immune to popular discontent based on body bag counts. A limited number of deaths that are the cost of successful overseas adventures will bolster Putin's popularity. I would expect higher numbers, or deaths resulting from unsuccessful adventures, or terrorism coming home to roost to have a significant adverse impact on his ratings if sustained.

Thanks for your reply. If anything, another military triumph may well add to Putin's popularity.

I don't think there is much up side to Putin's popularity. All those who could be won over by military triumphs are already in his column. Those against him are those who believe in democracy, freedom of speech and the press, human rights - in particular gay rights, and those who rail against the kleptocracy. I don't see them being won over by successes against ISIS.

That's not quite true. Several prominent figures in what might be called the liberal opposition made approving noises about the annexation of Crimea.

Turkey is a historic Russian bogeyman and Erdogan has foolishly given the Russians a propaganda tool.

MP_SE said:

Great to see Labour are running an honest campaign in Oldham:

No sooner have I switched off the recorder than a local businessman, Imran Sarwar, approaches the UKIP leader.

“The Labour activists are going around, in the private meetings, saying that Muslims will be deported if UKIP wins and that UKIP is the civilized BNP [British National Party]. But I have come to hear you sir … and this is not true sir.”

www.politico.eu/article/will-corbyn-sink-labour-at-oldham-ukip-farage-uk/

They have given up on the make the whites angry approach. Its scare the ethnic minorities instead.

who is this lab mp letting rip - he's fantastic and totally unpolished...

FrancisUrquhart said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@JesseRodriguez ·
NBC News: ISIS releases video showing beheading of alleged Russian spy

‏@calmsnbc · 10m10 minutes ago

Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez
Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.

So ISIS now have a Jadahi Иоанн ?

Jihadi Ива́н, surely!

Jim Dowd....

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Please put down the coffee, tea, or over beverage of your choice.

https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/672118845092601856

QT what a bunch. Will the Stop The Traffic marchers be invited to turn up?

One sensible individual on the whole panel.

By far the worst aspect of the Corbyn leadership has been the number of times I'm forced to see and/or listen to the vacuous Diane Abbott.

williamglenn said:

MTimT said:

The_Apocalypse said:

MTimT said:

Putin's popularity in Russia is high (80%+ - essentially everyone except the Moscow and St Petersburg middle classes who are outside the kleptocracy) based upon three things, only one of which is sustainable:

1. restoration of law and order
2. good fortune to have presided over a boom in the value of energy exports (currently not so)
3. revival of Soviet - sorry, Russian - pride with the annexation of Crimea.

We have seen with both Afghanistan and Chechnya that Russia is not immune to popular discontent based on body bag counts. A limited number of deaths that are the cost of successful overseas adventures will bolster Putin's popularity. I would expect higher numbers, or deaths resulting from unsuccessful adventures, or terrorism coming home to roost to have a significant adverse impact on his ratings if sustained.

Thanks for your reply. If anything, another military triumph may well add to Putin's popularity.

I don't think there is much up side to Putin's popularity. All those who could be won over by military triumphs are already in his column. Those against him are those who believe in democracy, freedom of speech and the press, human rights - in particular gay rights, and those who rail against the kleptocracy. I don't see them being won over by successes against ISIS.

That's not quite true. Several prominent figures in what might be called the liberal opposition made approving noises about the annexation of Crimea.

Turkey is a historic Russian bogeyman and Erdogan has foolishly given the Russians a propaganda tool.

But those who approved of the Crimean Annexation are already in his column. So we are really talking about those for whom confrontation with Turkey would make Putin more popular. Can't see that being a lot of people.

RUSI's take on David Cameron's case:

https://rusi.org/commentary/sound-strategy-or-dodgy-dossier-cameron’s-case-syria-strikes

Danny565 said:

Agreed. Although it will invite the tiresome talk of "colonialism", part of me does think the West needs to take it upon ourselves to redraw the map in that part of the world, into countries that will make for a more stable settlement in the long run.

I've slowly been heading this way, as anyone reading my posts on here for the last few years will have noticed. The biggest issues to my mind area:

1) Imposing it can be problematic, both in the short term and long term.
2) When a country splits in this manner, it can cause massive population movements.

For 1), we have to ask whether Sunni, Shia, Alawite and Kurd can be represented together by the same government. History has shown it is difficult, which is exactly why strongmen have been needed to run these countries, at the expense of periodic atrocities. *If* locals can be persuaded then the imposition need not be impossible - and it would have to be agreed locally.

For 2), we have already had massive population movements because of the civil war. That ship has mostly sailed.

Personally, I would try favouring a series of semi-autonomous regions rather than splitting the countr(y/ies) up into separate states, at least at first. This would lead to a similar situation to the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq, except over the whole country. This federal approach might allow Syria and Iraq to remain as whole entities, whilst giving some autonomy to local populations. It might act as a pressure-relief valve on discontent.

It will also cost a lot of money. But at the end of the day, money will be much of the answer to keep the groups on our side or in check.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Woodcock was heckled by well-respected shadow City Minister (!!) Richard Burgon - one of the dimmest bulbs in the labour pack.

So busy on STW events, I wonder if he's found which City the City is in yet.

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 15m15 minutes ago
Not content with encouraging a march on his own party's HQ yesterday @RichardBurgon is now heckling his own colleague @JWoodcockMP.

I hope Woodcock has some friends, his health can be fragile.

dr_spyn said:

Please put down the coffee, tea, or over beverage of your choice.

https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/672118845092601856

QT what a bunch. Will the Stop The Traffic marchers be invited to turn up?

Think I'll be washing my hair.

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Please put down the coffee, tea, or over beverage of your choice.

twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/672118845092601856

QT what a bunch. Will the Stop The Traffic marchers be invited to turn up?

One sensible individual on the whole panel.

Correct but then again I have not watched QT for years. Even with a sensible panel you can ve guaranteed a moronic audience.

Powerful speech from Tom Tugendhat in favour of the motion

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Please put down the coffee, tea, or over beverage of your choice.

https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/672118845092601856

QT what a bunch. Will the Stop The Traffic marchers be invited to turn up?

One sensible individual on the whole panel.

Majid Nawaz?

Casino_Royale said:

dr_spyn said:

Please put down the coffee, tea, or over beverage of your choice.

https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/672118845092601856

QT what a bunch. Will the Stop The Traffic marchers be invited to turn up?

Think I'll be washing my hair.

There's always Braveheart on Film4 tomorrow night