politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON leads moves to 15% with ComRes online while Corbyn sees
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON leads moves to 15% with ComRes online while Corbyn sees 10% drop in his favourability ratings
The ComRes leader ratings paint a very different picture from that which we saw from Ipsos earlier in the week. This is down to the question. ComRes ask favourability questions while the Ipsos-MORI rating relates to leader satisfaction. The latter found 28% of 2015 CON voters saying they are satisfied with Corbyn – a number which is very telling in itself.
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Private polling klaxon
Labour support at the ballot box could be halved in the first electoral test for Jeremy Corbyn since becoming leader, private polling by the party has suggested.
Senior figures, including a shadow cabinet minister, have expressed alarm at the prospects for Labour in the upcoming Oldham by-election, with Mr Corbyn seen as a problem on the doorstep with voters, as the crisis over his leadership deepens.
In door-to-door canvassing in the constituency ahead of May’s general election, local party workers are understood to have found 32 per cent of voters were supporting Labour.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12009844/Labour-support-at-ballot-box-could-be-halved-at-Oldham-by-election-polling-suggests.html0 -
Second just like UKIP will be at the 2020 general election.
Edit: Actually third just like Labour will be at the 2020 general election.0 -
Good poll for Boris as well, without him actually doing anything.0
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This just might be a good time for a bit of Tory tactical voting.......TheScreamingEagles said:Private polling klaxon
Labour support at the ballot box could be halved in the first electoral test for Jeremy Corbyn since becoming leader, private polling by the party has suggested.
Senior figures, including a shadow cabinet minister, have expressed alarm at the prospects for Labour in the upcoming Oldham by-election, with Mr Corbyn seen as a problem on the doorstep with voters, as the crisis over his leadership deepens.
In door-to-door canvassing in the constituency ahead of May’s general election, local party workers are understood to have found 32 per cent of voters were supporting Labour.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12009844/Labour-support-at-ballot-box-could-be-halved-at-Oldham-by-election-polling-suggests.html0 -
OK, at this rate, we see a UKIP-Lab crossover in seven months. Holy sheeeeet...0
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Ouch. Corbyn = benitez0
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Baxter:
Con 371
Lab 193
SNP 55
LD 7
PC 4
UKIP 1
Green 10 -
I know this is veering on trolling, but....it took Nick Clegg about a year to take the Libs from 24% to 11%, that's a loss of about 1% a month. Corbyn is shedding Lab votes at twice the rate of Clegg. Cameron is fortunate in his enemies...0
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6%-7% difference on the Labour score compared to the last set of phone polls.0
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Is it me or is the media coverage of Oldham quite poor in comparison to previous by-elections? Not seeing the constituency being flooded by hundreds of activists either.0
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The problem with the thesis is because Labour do badly if:TheScreamingEagles said:Private polling klaxon
Labour support at the ballot box could be halved in the first electoral test for Jeremy Corbyn since becoming leader, private polling by the party has suggested.
Senior figures, including a shadow cabinet minister, have expressed alarm at the prospects for Labour in the upcoming Oldham by-election, with Mr Corbyn seen as a problem on the doorstep with voters, as the crisis over his leadership deepens.
In door-to-door canvassing in the constituency ahead of May’s general election, local party workers are understood to have found 32 per cent of voters were supporting Labour.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12009844/Labour-support-at-ballot-box-could-be-halved-at-Oldham-by-election-polling-suggests.html
(1) No-one cares about the by-election, Labour voters don't turn out; or
(2) Everyone cares about the election and wants to whack Corbyn.
The problem is those are contradictory.0 -
Labour's problem in a nutshell:
"Labour MPs are said to be thinking of unseating Mr Corbyn after just 10 weeks as leader, but only 20 per cent of Labour voters agree that MPs “should remove” him, while 56 per cent disagree, and 24 per cent don’t know.'
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/corbyns-favourability-rating-falls-in-comres-poll-for-the-independent-on-sunday-a6743516.html0 -
Ed Miliband. Lost Labour a shedload of votes against an unpopular coalition. Installed a leadership electoral system that gave Labour Jeremy Terrorist-Fellator as a leader. Incompetence like that is almost an art form, you couldn't do it accidentally, it takes years and years of patient graft...0
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Come have a go if you think your hard enough...AndyJS said:Labour's problem in a nutshell:
"Labour MPs are said to be thinking of unseating Mr Corbyn after just 10 weeks as leader, but only 20 per cent of Labour voters agree that MPs “should remove” him, while 56 per cent disagree, and 24 per cent don’t know.'
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/corbyns-favourability-rating-falls-in-comres-poll-for-the-independent-on-sunday-a6743516.html
Haven't seen much of a positive Corbyn effect in the local elections so far. Corbyn is in the same class as Lansbury, full of platitudes, hot air and not much else. The guy is more useless than Miliband or Brown. Has there been a worse Labour leader since 1945?0 -
Are you SeanT in disguise? Still laughing.viewcode said:Ed Miliband. Lost Labour a shedload of votes against an unpopular coalition. Installed a leadership electoral system that gave Labour Jeremy Terrorist-Fellator as a leader. Incompetence like that is almost an art form, you couldn't do it accidentally, it takes years and years of patient graft...
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George Osborne more popular than Corbyn. Who'd have thunk it.0
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Beware of percentages. The problem is not the *percentage* of Labour voters who are happy with Corbyn, it's the fact that the *total number* of Labour voters is rapidly decreasing....AndyJS said:Labour's problem in a nutshell:
"Labour MPs are said to be thinking of unseating Mr Corbyn after just 10 weeks as leader, but only 20 per cent of Labour voters agree that MPs “should remove” him, while 56 per cent disagree, and 24 per cent don’t know.'
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/corbyns-favourability-rating-falls-in-comres-poll-for-the-independent-on-sunday-a6743516.html0 -
Corbyn = Rodgers.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Thank you, but no. Very different pay scale.dr_spyn said:
Are you SeanT in disguise? Still laughing.viewcode said:Ed Miliband. Lost Labour a shedload of votes against an unpopular coalition. Installed a leadership electoral system that gave Labour Jeremy Terrorist-Fellator as a leader. Incompetence like that is almost an art form, you couldn't do it accidentally, it takes years and years of patient graft...
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Ed Balls losing Morley has to be one of the more significant political dominos ever, no?0
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The way to stop the number decreasing is to get rid of Corbyn but if 56% of Labour voters support Corbyn it's going to be a problem deposing him.viewcode said:
Beware of percentages. The problem is not the *percentage* of Labour voters who are happy with Corbyn, it's the fact that the *total number* of Labour voters is rapidly decreasing....AndyJS said:Labour's problem in a nutshell:
"Labour MPs are said to be thinking of unseating Mr Corbyn after just 10 weeks as leader, but only 20 per cent of Labour voters agree that MPs “should remove” him, while 56 per cent disagree, and 24 per cent don’t know.'
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/corbyns-favourability-rating-falls-in-comres-poll-for-the-independent-on-sunday-a6743516.html0 -
Wrong: you are assuming every voter reacts the same.TheWhiteRabbit said:
The problem with the thesis is because Labour do badly if:TheScreamingEagles said:Private polling klaxon
Labour support at the ballot box could be halved in the first electoral test for Jeremy Corbyn since becoming leader, private polling by the party has suggested.
Senior figures, including a shadow cabinet minister, have expressed alarm at the prospects for Labour in the upcoming Oldham by-election, with Mr Corbyn seen as a problem on the doorstep with voters, as the crisis over his leadership deepens.
In door-to-door canvassing in the constituency ahead of May’s general election, local party workers are understood to have found 32 per cent of voters were supporting Labour.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12009844/Labour-support-at-ballot-box-could-be-halved-at-Oldham-by-election-polling-suggests.html
(1) No-one cares about the by-election, Labour voters don't turn out; or
(2) Everyone cares about the election and wants to whack Corbyn.
The problem is those are contradictory.
Worst case for Labour is that tribal Labour voters don't vote because they don't care enough (and Corbyn doesn't motivate them to turn out)and UKIP and Tory voters are motivated by whack-a-Corbyn and turn out in droves0 -
Where spurs lead, Liverpool followTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
UKIP benefitting from labour going to the far left,especially on immigration.0
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So UKIP are now a rival Labour Party now not a rival tory party? This with an ex city slicker leader?
Funny old world.
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At this rate NP ex MP will be a member of LP ex PP0
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How long before we see instead of the flawed 'Unite the right' when Kippers were said to stop the blues winning the gen election, with 'Unite the white'... working class vote?Tykejohnno said:UKIP benefitting from labour going to the far left,especially on immigration.
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So Labour are closer to the UKIP VI than they are to the Tory VI0
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UKPR's Anthony Wells has a report on the poll:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9551
"The reason the Tory lead is bigger than in recent polls giving them a lead of only six or seven points is down to ComRes having a different methodology, not a sudden fracturing of support.
If you are interested in the specifics of this, the reason for the gap is probably ComRes’s new turnout model. Rather than weighting people based on how likely they claim they are to vote, ComRes estimate people’s likelihood to vote based on demographic factors like age and class. In practice, it means weighting down young people and working class people who are more likely to support Labour."0 -
I remember the dark days when we were on 27%TheScreamingEagles said:So Labour are closer to the UKIP VI than they are to the Tory VI
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It rather asks another question. Just what was the motive for the £3 membership? Whose idea was it.dr_spyn said:
Are you SeanT in disguise? Still laughing.viewcode said:Ed Miliband. Lost Labour a shedload of votes against an unpopular coalition. Installed a leadership electoral system that gave Labour Jeremy Terrorist-Fellator as a leader. Incompetence like that is almost an art form, you couldn't do it accidentally, it takes years and years of patient graft...
I suppose the other question is 'just how out of touch with what was going on in their own membership was the PLP?' Who on earth thought it was a clever idea to nominate Corbyn?0 -
The triumphant march towards the new Jerusalem continues. Nick and co get what they voted for. Magnificent!0
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That was a few months ago. I remember last year some Kippers were predicting they would soon outpolling the ToriesRobD said:
I remember the dark days when we were on 27%TheScreamingEagles said:So Labour are closer to the UKIP VI than they are to the Tory VI
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If the total number of 'Labour voters' decreases significantly, would you expect that to be reflected in a decreasing number of people who acknowledge voting Labour at the last election? And if so, would that have an effect on the polling?AndyJS said:
The way to stop the number decreasing is to get rid of Corbyn but if 56% of Labour voters support Corbyn it's going to be a problem deposing him.viewcode said:
Beware of percentages. The problem is not the *percentage* of Labour voters who are happy with Corbyn, it's the fact that the *total number* of Labour voters is rapidly decreasing....AndyJS said:Labour's problem in a nutshell:
"Labour MPs are said to be thinking of unseating Mr Corbyn after just 10 weeks as leader, but only 20 per cent of Labour voters agree that MPs “should remove” him, while 56 per cent disagree, and 24 per cent don’t know.'
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/corbyns-favourability-rating-falls-in-comres-poll-for-the-independent-on-sunday-a6743516.html
I realise that the pollsters would still identify the same proportions of people acknowledging having voted for party X, but would that distort the answers to other questions?
I.e. someone who actually voted Labour but claimed to have voted Conservative would answer the other questions in a very different manner (edited to add: to someone who actually did vote Conservative).0 -
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It's a poor show for them all not to get on a train and be doing some effort there. Candidates and the ambitious were 'warmly' expected to get their backsides up to every westminster by election.MP_SE said:Is it me or is the media coverage of Oldham quite poor in comparison to previous by-elections? Not seeing the constituency being flooded by hundreds of activists either.
A conservative MP who took the position that Livinstone did of sneering at the suggestion he should be out on the streets would be getting it in the neck, and told not to expect any central support come the general election.
(I know Ken is not an MP, but he plays an important part in the left of the party, he could get activists up north on buses if he so desired).0 -
Cameron equal Lady Thatcher. I bet he really wished he hadnt promised to stand down.Scrapheap_as_was said:Ouch. Corbyn = benitez
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Not really, at that point, the country had just experienced Black WednesdayThreeQuidder said:This seems suboptimal.
https://twitter.com/nigelfletcher/status/6681550896899522560 -
The 1980s for slow learners. London based far leftists rooted in public sector unions and 'rainbow politics' do not appeal to Labour heartland voters. And it is defence/security/immigration that does for them. The sort of economic policy espoused by McDonnell yesterday wouldn't work but could appeal to labour's core vote. But it's completely swamped by the rest of it. At least the ppes can read an opinion poll and not deliberately insult the voters.0
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Time to stick a pin in Labour.
It's done.0 -
TSE, I think it's suboptimal to be fair...TheScreamingEagles said:
Not really, at that point, the country had just experienced Black WednesdayThreeQuidder said:This seems suboptimal.
https://twitter.com/nigelfletcher/status/6681550896899522560 -
This seems much more reasonable than the self-selecting question.AndyJS said:UKPR's Anthony Wells has a report on the poll:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9551
"The reason the Tory lead is bigger than in recent polls giving them a lead of only six or seven points is down to ComRes having a different methodology, not a sudden fracturing of support.
If you are interested in the specifics of this, the reason for the gap is probably ComRes’s new turnout model. Rather than weighting people based on how likely they claim they are to vote, ComRes estimate people’s likelihood to vote based on demographic factors like age and class. In practice, it means weighting down young people and working class people who are more likely to support Labour."0 -
It does. The problem with actually asking people if they intend to vote is that claiming they will is the ultimate badge of honour for a virtue signaller.Dair said:
This seems much more reasonable than the self-selecting question.AndyJS said:UKPR's Anthony Wells has a report on the poll:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9551
"The reason the Tory lead is bigger than in recent polls giving them a lead of only six or seven points is down to ComRes having a different methodology, not a sudden fracturing of support.
If you are interested in the specifics of this, the reason for the gap is probably ComRes’s new turnout model. Rather than weighting people based on how likely they claim they are to vote, ComRes estimate people’s likelihood to vote based on demographic factors like age and class. In practice, it means weighting down young people and working class people who are more likely to support Labour."0 -
Corbyn popular on Twitter, not popular in the real world.0
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In November 1987, the Tories had a 15% lead, with NOP.TheWhiteRabbit said:
TSE, I think it's suboptimal to be fair...TheScreamingEagles said:
Not really, at that point, the country had just experienced Black WednesdayThreeQuidder said:This seems suboptimal.
https://twitter.com/nigelfletcher/status/668155089689952256
So Corbyn is Kinnockeseque, Kinnock after all reduced the Tory Majority from 144 to 220 -
Was it? Would he have stood for the leadership? Could he have somehow been any more supportive or advisory to his wife if he had still been an MP?Mortimer said:Ed Balls losing Morley has to be one of the more significant political dominos ever, no?
Assuming not then would Balls have been in the shadow cabinet? Cooper pointedly refused to serve.
Of course given the abject failure of the three stooge candidates would labour think a Lou Costello option a viable alternative?0 -
He would have stood, and he would have won.flightpath01 said:
Was it? Would he have stood for the leadership? Could he have somehow been any more supportive or advisory to his wife if he had still been an MP?Mortimer said:Ed Balls losing Morley has to be one of the more significant political dominos ever, no?
Assuming not then would Balls have been in the shadow cabinet? Cooper pointedly refused to serve.
Of course given the abject failure of the three stooge candidates would labour think a Lou Costello option a viable alternative?
And Labour would not be at 27% in the polls.0 -
Nah, Rochester and Strood was the important result on May 7th, pace the North Britain resultsMortimer said:Ed Balls losing Morley has to be one of the more significant political dominos ever, no?
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I noticed on Amazon, that The British General Election of 2015 edited by Kavanagh & Cowley will be published in December.0
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Is the famous Labour ground war not being deployed?MP_SE said:Is it me or is the media coverage of Oldham quite poor in comparison to previous by-elections? Not seeing the constituency being flooded by hundreds of activists either.
I remember hearing all about it during early May.
Whatever happened to @IOS?0 -
Nah, he wasn't going to run, in 2010 it was his turn, in 2015 it was the turn of Mrs BallsMortimer said:
He would have stood, and he would have won.flightpath01 said:
Was it? Would he have stood for the leadership? Could he have somehow been any more supportive or advisory to his wife if he had still been an MP?Mortimer said:Ed Balls losing Morley has to be one of the more significant political dominos ever, no?
Assuming not then would Balls have been in the shadow cabinet? Cooper pointedly refused to serve.
Of course given the abject failure of the three stooge candidates would labour think a Lou Costello option a viable alternative?
And Labour would not be at 27% in the polls.0 -
I would be inclined to think that Balls would have ground Corbyn into the dust. He has more presence than his wife. The Morley result was a disaster for Labour.flightpath01 said:
Was it? Would he have stood for the leadership? Could he have somehow been any more supportive or advisory to his wife if he had still been an MP?Mortimer said:Ed Balls losing Morley has to be one of the more significant political dominos ever, no?
Assuming not then would Balls have been in the shadow cabinet? Cooper pointedly refused to serve.
Of course given the abject failure of the three stooge candidates would labour think a Lou Costello option a viable alternative?0 -
Indeed - as many of us said repeatedly before May. The biggest problem for Labour now is the blindness of the membership to what they've done. Only the other day NPXMP was saying he/they were happy with the Corbyn approach so far. It beggars belief to witness such a level of crass stupidity and can only be explained by a level of ignorance about the British people of quite staggering proportions.Dair said:
This seems much more reasonable than the self-selecting question.AndyJS said:UKPR's Anthony Wells has a report on the poll:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9551
"The reason the Tory lead is bigger than in recent polls giving them a lead of only six or seven points is down to ComRes having a different methodology, not a sudden fracturing of support.
If you are interested in the specifics of this, the reason for the gap is probably ComRes’s new turnout model. Rather than weighting people based on how likely they claim they are to vote, ComRes estimate people’s likelihood to vote based on demographic factors like age and class. In practice, it means weighting down young people and working class people who are more likely to support Labour."0 -
Smith dying early. Labour would have won in 1997 even without New Labour; just not (IMO) with as big a majority. If Smith had served a full term as PM, then Brown and Blair's opportunity would have passed.Mortimer said:Ed Balls losing Morley has to be one of the more significant political dominos ever, no?
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The only thing keeping Labour from complete collapse is the Lib Dems on 7%. Farron seems to be as sanctimonious and innfective as Corbyn but if Lib Dems did get back up to 15ish labour MPs start heading for an extinction event.0
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The five million conversations they planned on having was only five thousand in the end.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Is the famous Labour ground war not being deployed?MP_SE said:Is it me or is the media coverage of Oldham quite poor in comparison to previous by-elections? Not seeing the constituency being flooded by hundreds of activists either.
I remember hearing all about it during early May.
Whatever happened to @IOS?0 -
Over 2 elections. In 1992 Major lost 40 seats on 42% of the vote. The drop in tory vote share was in fact only minuscule.TheScreamingEagles said:
In November 1987, the Tories had a 15% lead, with NOP.TheWhiteRabbit said:
TSE, I think it's suboptimal to be fair...TheScreamingEagles said:
Not really, at that point, the country had just experienced Black WednesdayThreeQuidder said:This seems suboptimal.
https://twitter.com/nigelfletcher/status/668155089689952256
So Corbyn is Kinnockeseque, Kinnock after all reduced the Tory Majority from 144 to 220 -
Brown bottling the election that never was is the biggest political knife for Labour this millennium. A nice epithet for his political career for the history books... Just how cataclysmic it will be for Labour is still to be made clear.0
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Great news for certain popcorn magnates, however!Scrapheap_as_was said:Brown bottling the election that never was is the biggest political knife for Labour this millennium. A nice epithet for his political career for the history books... Just how cataclysmic it will be for Labour is still to be made clear.
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Balls was openly contemptuous of Ed Miliband (perhaps in tune with the rest of the country!) But I am far from convinced that he would have done better than the other three.dr_spyn said:
I would be inclined to think that Balls would have ground Corbyn into the dust. He has more presence than his wife. The Morley result was a disaster for Labour.flightpath01 said:
Was it? Would he have stood for the leadership? Could he have somehow been any more supportive or advisory to his wife if he had still been an MP?Mortimer said:Ed Balls losing Morley has to be one of the more significant political dominos ever, no?
Assuming not then would Balls have been in the shadow cabinet? Cooper pointedly refused to serve.
Of course given the abject failure of the three stooge candidates would labour think a Lou Costello option a viable alternative?
Labours two fatal errors were abstaining on the welfare cuts and MPs loaning their nominations to Corbyn.
It was a passive-aggresive suicide. "Now look at what you have made me do..."0 -
Balls was a fighter. He would have wiped the floor with the alternatives.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, he wasn't going to run, in 2010 it was his turn, in 2015 it was the turn of Mrs BallsMortimer said:
He would have stood, and he would have won.flightpath01 said:
Was it? Would he have stood for the leadership? Could he have somehow been any more supportive or advisory to his wife if he had still been an MP?Mortimer said:Ed Balls losing Morley has to be one of the more significant political dominos ever, no?
Assuming not then would Balls have been in the shadow cabinet? Cooper pointedly refused to serve.
Of course given the abject failure of the three stooge candidates would labour think a Lou Costello option a viable alternative?
And Labour would not be at 27% in the polls.0 -
I'm still full from the stuff after the lunchtime bout with bigot Ken vs super-mann on lbcRobD said:
Great news for certain popcorn magnates, however!Scrapheap_as_was said:Brown bottling the election that never was is the biggest political knife for Labour this millennium. A nice epithet for his political career for the history books... Just how cataclysmic it will be for Labour is still to be made clear.
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He may be but I hope he isn't. Changing leader will be dangerous for the tory party but they will need to, and Cameron will be wise to stick to his intentions. 15 years is a long time in politics.notme said:
Cameron equal Lady Thatcher. I bet he really wished he hadnt promised to stand down.Scrapheap_as_was said:Ouch. Corbyn = benitez
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Given his invaluable insights into Labour's ground game, he has been cryogenically frozen, only to be re-animated six months prior to the next election in 2020.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Is the famous Labour ground war not being deployed?MP_SE said:Is it me or is the media coverage of Oldham quite poor in comparison to previous by-elections? Not seeing the constituency being flooded by hundreds of activists either.
I remember hearing all about it during early May.
Whatever happened to @IOS?0 -
Harriet Harman's response to Osborne's July Budget and the decision to abstain on the welfare cuts created the momentum for Corbyn. A very serious error of judgement on her part.0
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It was an attempt to talk sanity rather than absurdity. True the labour party did not listen, but that is why in the end it has to be assessed as unsuitable for government.justin124 said:Harriet Harman's response to Osborne's July Budget and the decision to abstain on the welfare cuts created the momentum for Corbyn. A very serious error of judgement on her part.
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"I'm sick and tired of popcorn!"RobD said:
Great news for certain popcorn magnates, however!Scrapheap_as_was said:Brown bottling the election that never was is the biggest political knife for Labour this millennium. A nice epithet for his political career for the history books... Just how cataclysmic it will be for Labour is still to be made clear.
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Pinch of salt and all that, but....TheScreamingEagles said:
"In door-to-door canvassing in the constituency ahead of May’s general election, local party workers are understood to have found 32 per cent of voters were supporting Labour....
However, the same canvassing returns in recent weeks found that just half those voters said they would now back Labour."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12009844/Labour-support-at-ballot-box-could-be-halved-at-Oldham-by-election-polling-suggests.html
The sample which gave Lab 32% before May, now gives ~16%.
Meacher actually got 55%, on a 60% turnout.
To me that indicates very low turnout as much as anything else.
UKIP would win this on a 30% turnout. They'll struggle if it's above 40%, IMO.
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@Mr_Eugenides: If I cut down on red meat and alcohol, I might outlive the Labour Party.0
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Genuine questions to those in the know at Oldham. Corbyn repeated his claim today that Labour had added 400,000 to its membership. That is an average of 615 per constituency. That is an awful lot of additional strength in a ground war in any election. Are they in evidence in Oldham West? If so, what difference are they making? Looking at ComRes tonight they could be crucial in a close run thing. If,as some of us on here suspect ,they are an army of toytown revolutionaries happy to shout on twitter but reluctant to meet the people of the real world on the doorsteps then that is quite a different thing. I would have thought that the Labour stalwarts in the constituency will know by now what they are.I would be interested to know the truth.0
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In today's Financial Times:
"If Mr Corbyn could pick his ground to fight on, Oldham West & Royton would be high on the list."0 -
Oh dear Labour, oh dear.
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Twitter is a joy this evening.
Hardcore Corbynistas are ecstatic. This poll gives them the reason they have been seeking to abandon any pretence at power, and concentrate full time on protest and rhetoric.
Happy Days...0 -
@andybolton: .@Mr_Eugenides If you bought a hamster now it would outlive the Labour Party.0
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Can we all keep this in perspective please? It's one poll on an untried methodology that conflicts with the other recent poll we have. That headline figure should be treated with plenty of scepticism unless we get several others like it in quick succession.
However, I was intrigued by this figure which seems as a comparison to have some value: 40% of all voters want Corbyn forced out but only 20% of Labour voters (compared to 56% who want him to stay). That does tend to underline how far Labour are out of step with the country at large and fits well with the anecdotal evidence I have seen including the continued Unswerving and even unreasoning loyalty of NPXMP. It doesn't, if confirmed bode well for Labour going forward.0 -
O/T:
The first episode of the new series of The Bridge is on BBC4 at 9pm tonight.0 -
A rightwing Tory committed to a neoliberal agenda would tend to see the world that way but coming from a stand -in Labour leader it was appalling.flightpath01 said:
It was an attempt to talk sanity rather than absurdity. True the labour party did not listen, but that is why in the end it has to be assessed as unsuitable for government.justin124 said:Harriet Harman's response to Osborne's July Budget and the decision to abstain on the welfare cuts created the momentum for Corbyn. A very serious error of judgement on her part.
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Whoops — there are 9 wards in the Oldham West & Royton constituency, not 11.Tissue_Price said:0
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@corbynjokes: How many Lab MPs does it take to change a lightbulb?
The bulb was installed by the membership & we're not looking to change it at this time.0 -
As a member I'm still trying to work out who is supporting him because the people in meetings are the same they ever were. There are an awful lot of labour members who don't know any Tories or swing voters (or indeed working class people or people who work in the private sector). And they are the ones telling people who do that they are Tories. But that seems a pretty much online phenomenon. He has very little support amongst councillors and mps so it probably wouldn't be cataclysmic from an activists point of view if he went but there would be online carnage and all the social justice warriors would return to the greens. The question is whether in the meantime a chunk of the older traditional vote is gone for good.felix said:
Indeed - as many of us said repeatedly before May. The biggest problem for Labour now is the blindness of the membership to what they've done. Only the other day NPXMP was saying he/they were happy with the Corbyn approach so far. It beggars belief to witness such a level of crass stupidity and can only be explained by a level of ignorance about the British people of quite staggering proportions.Dair said:
This seems much more reasonable than the self-selecting question.AndyJS said:UKPR's Anthony Wells has a report on the poll:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9551
"The reason the Tory lead is bigger than in recent polls giving them a lead of only six or seven points is down to ComRes having a different methodology, not a sudden fracturing of support.
If you are interested in the specifics of this, the reason for the gap is probably ComRes’s new turnout model. Rather than weighting people based on how likely they claim they are to vote, ComRes estimate people’s likelihood to vote based on demographic factors like age and class. In practice, it means weighting down young people and working class people who are more likely to support Labour."0 -
Of course, but with a shiny new leader and an "unpopular" government Labour ought to be in a honeymoon period.ydoethur said:Can we all keep this in perspective please? It's one poll on an untried methodology that conflicts with the other recent poll we have. That headline figure should be treated with plenty of scepticism unless we get several others like it in quick succession.
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The Downfall of Trump
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Liz Mair, a “well-connected” former online communications director for the Republican National Committee, is trying to line up secret donors behind a “guerrilla campaign” to “defeat and destroy” Donald Trump’s frontrunning presidential candidacy. The Journal adds that other establishment Republicans now seem to be ramping up both the scale and bluntness of their attacks on Trump as well, including new SuperPAC campaigns, but Mair’s group, Trump Card LLC, might end up being the most extreme. It apparently plans to produce ads and web videos “that attract media attention based on their 'outrageousness and boundary-breaking or bizarre nature’” including such tactics as comparing Trump to his arch-nemesis Rosie O'Donnell, hiring a Trump impersonator to emphasize the candidate's jerkitude, and highlighting how Trump's positions and business tactics run counter to Republican ideology. On top of all that, the intention of the campaign is to attack Trump so brutally that his supporters not only abandon him, but abstain from voting in the primaries altogether.
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Trump is vulnerable to attack and ridicule ; he is easy to parody ...the GOP will make a laughing stock of him ...he's like a big spoilt kid incapable of taking criticism
The GOP hit squad will get rid of Trump ...they will not allow this rich jerk to ruin their chances
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Any reason the text is weirdly cropped?Tissue_Price said:twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/668164745938280450
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I believe Liz Mair's campaign has only raised $300 so she has a long way to go before being able to run even the smallest of campaigns.Cromwell said:The Downfall of Trump
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Liz Mair, a “well-connected” former online communications director for the Republican National Committee, is trying to line up secret donors behind a “guerrilla campaign” to “defeat and destroy” Donald Trump’s frontrunning presidential candidacy. The Journal adds that other establishment Republicans now seem to be ramping up both the scale and bluntness of their attacks on Trump as well, including new SuperPAC campaigns, but Mair’s group, Trump Card LLC, might end up being the most extreme. It apparently plans to produce ads and web videos “that attract media attention based on their 'outrageousness and boundary-breaking or bizarre nature’” including such tactics as comparing Trump to his arch-nemesis Rosie O'Donnell, hiring a Trump impersonator to emphasize the candidate's jerkitude, and highlighting how Trump's positions and business tactics run counter to Republican ideology. On top of all that, the intention of the campaign is to attack Trump so brutally that his supporters not only abandon him, but abstain from voting in the primaries altogether.
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Trump is vulnerable to attack and ridicule ; he is easy to parody ...the GOP will make a laughing stock of him ...he's like a big spoilt kid incapable of taking criticism
The GOP hit squad will get rid of Trump ...they will not allow this rich jerk to ruin their chances0 -
So many mistakes in that report. He talks about 2 heavily Asian wards but omits to mention Werneth which is more so than the other 2 he does refer to.RobD said:
Any reason the text is weirdly cropped?Tissue_Price said:twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/668164745938280450
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Many thanks to Tissue Price and Tom Wilson for the link. The Labour party is in deep trouble on that report. It looks as if the WWC has already formed a judgment about the values of the new leadership.0
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"Oldham_Campaigner" signed up to reddit 2 hours ago, just to post that.AndyJS said:Whoops — there are 9 wards in the Oldham West & Royton constituency, not 11.
Tissue_Price said:
Beware anecdata.0 -
But by behaving in this way, the GOP will destroy their chances of winning. Such obvious attempts to interfere with the process will make them look even nastier than Trump.Cromwell said:The Downfall of Trump
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Liz Mair, a “well-connected” former online communications director for the Republican National Committee, is trying to line up secret donors behind a “guerrilla campaign” to “defeat and destroy” Donald Trump’s frontrunning presidential candidacy. The Journal adds that other establishment Republicans now seem to be ramping up both the scale and bluntness of their attacks on Trump as well, including new SuperPAC campaigns, but Mair’s group, Trump Card LLC, might end up being the most extreme. It apparently plans to produce ads and web videos “that attract media attention based on their 'outrageousness and boundary-breaking or bizarre nature’” including such tactics as comparing Trump to his arch-nemesis Rosie O'Donnell, hiring a Trump impersonator to emphasize the candidate's jerkitude, and highlighting how Trump's positions and business tactics run counter to Republican ideology. On top of all that, the intention of the campaign is to attack Trump so brutally that his supporters not only abandon him, but abstain from voting in the primaries altogether.
-------------------------------------------------
Trump is vulnerable to attack and ridicule ; he is easy to parody ...the GOP will make a laughing stock of him ...he's like a big spoilt kid incapable of taking criticism
The GOP hit squad will get rid of Trump ...they will not allow this rich jerk to ruin their chances
It might get rid of Trump - but it also paints a picture of a party at war with itself and that makes it harder for them to reach out to the people that matter - the swing voters.0 -
How could a party's membership get so out of touch with its own voters? That's the big puzzle.dyingswan said:Many thanks to Tissue Price and Tom Wilson for the link. The Labour party is in deep trouble on that report. It looks as if the WWC has already formed a judgment about the values of the new leadership.
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It's all in London. My ward alone has over 300 new members (haven't met one though and my pile of sadiq khan leaflets was larger than usual as some of the stalwarts have dropped out)dyingswan said:Genuine questions to those in the know at Oldham. Corbyn repeated his claim today that Labour had added 400,000 to its membership. That is an average of 615 per constituency. That is an awful lot of additional strength in a ground war in any election. Are they in evidence in Oldham West? If so, what difference are they making? Looking at ComRes tonight they could be crucial in a close run thing. If,as some of us on here suspect ,they are an army of toytown revolutionaries happy to shout on twitter but reluctant to meet the people of the real world on the doorsteps then that is quite a different thing. I would have thought that the Labour stalwarts in the constituency will know by now what they are.I would be interested to know the truth.
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Yes, there's more than one pic there, and twitter has crapped them.RobD said:
Any reason the text is weirdly cropped?Tissue_Price said:twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/668164745938280450
You need to go to the tweet direct and view each individual pic.
or click these following links to see the text in full
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUXMRntWUAAFlUg.jpg
and
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUXMRoIWwAAbglX.jpg
and
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUXMRoIWwAAbglX.jpg
and finally
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUXMRoIWwAAbglX.jpg0 -
Twitter really is a pile of crap. Another infuriating thing is you cant zoom in on an image on the phone.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, there's more than one pic there, and twitter has crapped them.RobD said:
Any reason the text is weirdly cropped?Tissue_Price said:twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/668164745938280450
You need to go to the tweet direct and view each individual pic.
or click these following links to see the text in full
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUXMRntWUAAFlUg.jpg
and
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUXMRoIWwAAbglX.jpg
and
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUXMRoIWwAAbglX.jpg
and finally
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUXMRoIWwAAbglX.jpg0 -
Is it in bad taste to laugh at the fate of the Labour party ? Perhaps it is, but ha-hah-hah.
Something went wrong with the party in the early 21st century - it lost almost entirely the capacity for intelligent self-criticism. Everyone can make up their own list, but for instance
- They fully supported a chancellor who announced to the world that he'd abolished boom and bust (and it's not on out-of-context quote - his record shows that he believed it).
- They then, a short while later, elected the same man, unopposed, to be Prime Minister.
There were 300 and some Labour MPs from 1999 to 2010, and did we hear more than a squeak out of them about the above? Or any of the other idiocies, I could draw up a long list. The point is, much of what did was definitely, unarguably, out of touch to the point of idiocy.
I have as much respect as anyone for the historic Labour party, and what it achieved. But the thing that is now called the Labour Party is not that party, and hasn't been for a long time. It will never be that party again. It's time to be done with it. Time for new parties.0 -
@TSEofPB: What did David Cameron say about twitter? #MCFCvLFC
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUXSEYcWsAADnMm.jpg0 -
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/3tq9fb/observations_from_campaigning_in_oldham/RobD said:
Twitter really is a pile of crap. Another infuriating thing is you cant zoom in on an image on the phone.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, there's more than one pic there, and twitter has crapped them.RobD said:
Any reason the text is weirdly cropped?Tissue_Price said:twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/668164745938280450
You need to go to the tweet direct and view each individual pic.
or click these following links to see the text in full
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUXMRntWUAAFlUg.jpg
and
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUXMRoIWwAAbglX.jpg
and
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUXMRoIWwAAbglX.jpg
and finally
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUXMRoIWwAAbglX.jpg
The twitter posts left out the betting tip at the end;
"It all depends on the turnout, but in my honest opinion, at 3/1 it represents a ridiculous value for money as I'd put them both at evens. UKIP can win here, they are getting a very warm welcome and Corbyn is destroying his core vote.It all depends on the turnout, but in my honest opinion, at 3/1 it represents a ridiculous value for money as I'd put them both at evens. UKIP can win here, they are getting a very warm welcome and Corbyn is destroying his core vote."
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