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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON leads moves to 15% with ComRes online while Corbyn sees
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON leads moves to 15% with ComRes online while Corbyn sees 10% drop in his favourability ratings
The ComRes leader ratings paint a very different picture from that which we saw from Ipsos earlier in the week. This is down to the question. ComRes ask favourability questions while the Ipsos-MORI rating relates to leader satisfaction. The latter found 28% of 2015 CON voters saying they are satisfied with Corbyn – a number which is very telling in itself.
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Labour support at the ballot box could be halved in the first electoral test for Jeremy Corbyn since becoming leader, private polling by the party has suggested.
Senior figures, including a shadow cabinet minister, have expressed alarm at the prospects for Labour in the upcoming Oldham by-election, with Mr Corbyn seen as a problem on the doorstep with voters, as the crisis over his leadership deepens.
In door-to-door canvassing in the constituency ahead of May’s general election, local party workers are understood to have found 32 per cent of voters were supporting Labour.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12009844/Labour-support-at-ballot-box-could-be-halved-at-Oldham-by-election-polling-suggests.html
Edit: Actually third just like Labour will be at the 2020 general election.
Con 371
Lab 193
SNP 55
LD 7
PC 4
UKIP 1
Green 1
Christ I'm cold.
(1) No-one cares about the by-election, Labour voters don't turn out; or
(2) Everyone cares about the election and wants to whack Corbyn.
The problem is those are contradictory.
"Labour MPs are said to be thinking of unseating Mr Corbyn after just 10 weeks as leader, but only 20 per cent of Labour voters agree that MPs “should remove” him, while 56 per cent disagree, and 24 per cent don’t know.'
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/corbyns-favourability-rating-falls-in-comres-poll-for-the-independent-on-sunday-a6743516.html
Haven't seen much of a positive Corbyn effect in the local elections so far. Corbyn is in the same class as Lansbury, full of platitudes, hot air and not much else. The guy is more useless than Miliband or Brown. Has there been a worse Labour leader since 1945?
Worst case for Labour is that tribal Labour voters don't vote because they don't care enough (and Corbyn doesn't motivate them to turn out)and UKIP and Tory voters are motivated by whack-a-Corbyn and turn out in droves
Funny old world.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9551
"The reason the Tory lead is bigger than in recent polls giving them a lead of only six or seven points is down to ComRes having a different methodology, not a sudden fracturing of support.
If you are interested in the specifics of this, the reason for the gap is probably ComRes’s new turnout model. Rather than weighting people based on how likely they claim they are to vote, ComRes estimate people’s likelihood to vote based on demographic factors like age and class. In practice, it means weighting down young people and working class people who are more likely to support Labour."
I suppose the other question is 'just how out of touch with what was going on in their own membership was the PLP?' Who on earth thought it was a clever idea to nominate Corbyn?
I realise that the pollsters would still identify the same proportions of people acknowledging having voted for party X, but would that distort the answers to other questions?
I.e. someone who actually voted Labour but claimed to have voted Conservative would answer the other questions in a very different manner (edited to add: to someone who actually did vote Conservative).
https://twitter.com/nigelfletcher/status/668155089689952256
A conservative MP who took the position that Livinstone did of sneering at the suggestion he should be out on the streets would be getting it in the neck, and told not to expect any central support come the general election.
(I know Ken is not an MP, but he plays an important part in the left of the party, he could get activists up north on buses if he so desired).
It's done.
So Corbyn is Kinnockeseque, Kinnock after all reduced the Tory Majority from 144 to 22
Assuming not then would Balls have been in the shadow cabinet? Cooper pointedly refused to serve.
Of course given the abject failure of the three stooge candidates would labour think a Lou Costello option a viable alternative?
And Labour would not be at 27% in the polls.
I remember hearing all about it during early May.
Whatever happened to @IOS?
Labours two fatal errors were abstaining on the welfare cuts and MPs loaning their nominations to Corbyn.
It was a passive-aggresive suicide. "Now look at what you have made me do..."
The sample which gave Lab 32% before May, now gives ~16%.
Meacher actually got 55%, on a 60% turnout.
To me that indicates very low turnout as much as anything else.
UKIP would win this on a 30% turnout. They'll struggle if it's above 40%, IMO.
"If Mr Corbyn could pick his ground to fight on, Oldham West & Royton would be high on the list."
Hardcore Corbynistas are ecstatic. This poll gives them the reason they have been seeking to abandon any pretence at power, and concentrate full time on protest and rhetoric.
Happy Days...
However, I was intrigued by this figure which seems as a comparison to have some value: 40% of all voters want Corbyn forced out but only 20% of Labour voters (compared to 56% who want him to stay). That does tend to underline how far Labour are out of step with the country at large and fits well with the anecdotal evidence I have seen including the continued Unswerving and even unreasoning loyalty of NPXMP. It doesn't, if confirmed bode well for Labour going forward.
The first episode of the new series of The Bridge is on BBC4 at 9pm tonight.
The bulb was installed by the membership & we're not looking to change it at this time.
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Liz Mair, a “well-connected” former online communications director for the Republican National Committee, is trying to line up secret donors behind a “guerrilla campaign” to “defeat and destroy” Donald Trump’s frontrunning presidential candidacy. The Journal adds that other establishment Republicans now seem to be ramping up both the scale and bluntness of their attacks on Trump as well, including new SuperPAC campaigns, but Mair’s group, Trump Card LLC, might end up being the most extreme. It apparently plans to produce ads and web videos “that attract media attention based on their 'outrageousness and boundary-breaking or bizarre nature’” including such tactics as comparing Trump to his arch-nemesis Rosie O'Donnell, hiring a Trump impersonator to emphasize the candidate's jerkitude, and highlighting how Trump's positions and business tactics run counter to Republican ideology. On top of all that, the intention of the campaign is to attack Trump so brutally that his supporters not only abandon him, but abstain from voting in the primaries altogether.
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Trump is vulnerable to attack and ridicule ; he is easy to parody ...the GOP will make a laughing stock of him ...he's like a big spoilt kid incapable of taking criticism
The GOP hit squad will get rid of Trump ...they will not allow this rich jerk to ruin their chances
Beware anecdata.
It might get rid of Trump - but it also paints a picture of a party at war with itself and that makes it harder for them to reach out to the people that matter - the swing voters.
You need to go to the tweet direct and view each individual pic.
or click these following links to see the text in full
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUXMRntWUAAFlUg.jpg
and
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUXMRoIWwAAbglX.jpg
and
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUXMRoIWwAAbglX.jpg
and finally
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUXMRoIWwAAbglX.jpg
Something went wrong with the party in the early 21st century - it lost almost entirely the capacity for intelligent self-criticism. Everyone can make up their own list, but for instance
- They fully supported a chancellor who announced to the world that he'd abolished boom and bust (and it's not on out-of-context quote - his record shows that he believed it).
- They then, a short while later, elected the same man, unopposed, to be Prime Minister.
There were 300 and some Labour MPs from 1999 to 2010, and did we hear more than a squeak out of them about the above? Or any of the other idiocies, I could draw up a long list. The point is, much of what did was definitely, unarguably, out of touch to the point of idiocy.
I have as much respect as anyone for the historic Labour party, and what it achieved. But the thing that is now called the Labour Party is not that party, and hasn't been for a long time. It will never be that party again. It's time to be done with it. Time for new parties.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUXSEYcWsAADnMm.jpg
The twitter posts left out the betting tip at the end;
"It all depends on the turnout, but in my honest opinion, at 3/1 it represents a ridiculous value for money as I'd put them both at evens. UKIP can win here, they are getting a very warm welcome and Corbyn is destroying his core vote.It all depends on the turnout, but in my honest opinion, at 3/1 it represents a ridiculous value for money as I'd put them both at evens. UKIP can win here, they are getting a very warm welcome and Corbyn is destroying his core vote."