politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rose might front Remain but he won’t lead it

Clearly A Rose By Any Other Name Required.

But He Who Dares Not Grasp The Thorn Should Never Crave The Rose.

Well said David - excellent article. I was very surprised to see Mr Rose announced as leading the In campaign as I'd assumed that job will be given to the PM (assuming he gets what he thinks he needs). But I guess this relates to the official campaign but as David says, in reality the PM will play a prominent role. Although, I heard Hugo Rifkind on the Daily Politics say that he thinks it could be a tricky manoeuvre for the PM to join the debate at the end.

I get why politicians appeal to business for support, but in this case caution may be advised - especially for the In side. A friend of mine runs a metal fabrication business that employs four people - he'll be voting to Out. The In campaign needs to be careful to not get exclusively the support of Big Business and leave itself open to accusations of caring only for a readily available supply of cheap labour.

blackburn63 said:

The only argument STAY has is "uncertainty" which is a very negative message and "safety".

All elections are about "change" vs. "more of the same".

The latter tends to win. The Tories love it.

Jonathan said:

blackburn63 said:

The only argument STAY has is "uncertainty" which is a very negative message and "safety".

All elections are about "change" vs. "more of the same".

The latter tends to win. The Tories love it.

I'm not sure it will work, but one strategy of the Out campaign will be to say that there is no status quo on offer. A vote to remain will be taken as a vote to go further in the future.

Neither side looks particularly good at dealing with its weaknesses.

Leave needs an answer to "what comes next?" The likelihood of a consensus in the Leave camp on that is practically nil.

Wasn't it under Stuart Rose's watch that M&S decided to close their flagship store in Paris?

Not a great advertisement surely for the advantages of remaining within the EU.

@LeslieSkipper: Political party with two parliamentarians splits in half. https://t.co/5MCYqEpGTT

antifrank said:

@LeslieSkipper: Political party with two parliamentarians splits in half. https://t.co/5MCYqEpGTT

They've got nothing on UKIP

Good morning, everyone.

F1: pre-race piece up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/russia-pre-race.html

Sainz is out of hospital and wants to race. Remains to be seen whether he will or not.

Mr. Abroad, 'tis a silly way to vote.

Edited extra bit: Mascara Man plays the race card:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34498836

Surely the European ambition is about being inclusive. Why then choose an archetypal Tory businessman and a member of the HoL to boot? Does anyone know who is behind this bizarre appointment?

If they'd wanted a Tory surely someone like Heseltine would have been a better choice. A respected elder statesman and one with the overwhelming gratitude of the country for ridding it of our worst nightmare.

Roger said:

Surely the European ambition is about being inclusive. Why then choose an archetypal Tory businessman and a member of the HoL to boot? Does anyone know who is behind this bizarre appointment?

If they'd wanted a Tory surely someone like Heseltine would have been a better choice. A respected elder statesman and one with the overwhelming gratitude of the country for ridding it of our worst nightmare.

Heseltine, respected ?

Clearly doesn't apply to PB Tories.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/10/02/why-right-wing-so-righteous/

Jonathan said:

blackburn63 said:

The only argument STAY has is "uncertainty" which is a very negative message and "safety".

All elections are about "change" vs. "more of the same".

The latter tends to win. The Tories love it.

But which represents "change"? "Ever closer Union" or a "common market"?

Andrew Rawnsley on the Remain campaign

"They can also call on big figures from across the mainstream parties – Michael Heseltine, Tony Blair, Nick Clegg among them – to put their case."

I would think that bunch would hand most swing voters to Leave.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/11/campaign-to-stay-in-europe-wrapped-in-union-jack

Jonathan said:

blackburn63 said:

The only argument STAY has is "uncertainty" which is a very negative message and "safety".

All elections are about "change" vs. "more of the same".

The latter tends to win. The Tories love it.

Change is great.

Providing that you can convincingly demonstrate it is an improvement on the status quo

Tories don't believe in permanent revolution

OldKingCole said:

At the moment OUT is making most, if not all the noise, and a lot more local, on the ground, effort is needed to make sure we don’t go back to the 50’s.

Why do you think a vote for Out is a return to the 50s?

The more significant problem is the way the 'Stay' campaign seems to be shaping up to conduct itself. It's going to campaign, as far as I can judge, on the cold, hard facts of whether or not we would be better off outside the EU (which we probably wouldn't be, incidentally). Meanwhile, the Out lot have already begun appealing to visceral, gut instinct about national sovereignty and sinister European superstates fostering uncontrollable migration.

As we saw with painful clarity in Scotland, cold hard facts may win you the referendum, but a complete lack of passion will lose you the wider war. The 'No' campaign almost made it sound like Scotland couldn't cope on its own, and people began to see them as traitors. The 'Yes' campaign's claims may have had all the credibility of one of Jeffrey Archer's fictional works (or his court statements) but there was no doubting their commitment to Scotland and the Scottish people. That is how Alistair Darling won the debate and the referendum late last year, and saw the Liberal Democrats and Labour forfeit 50 of their 52 seats in Scotland this year. They made the union seem necessary, but not something actually loveable (if anything, something to be actively hated while used for personal gain) - a very great mistake.

Could we see the same thing happen over Europe? Possibly - but if so with the example of Scotland, and to a lesser extent Corbyn's win, the 'Stay' campaign will have no excuse. They need to appeal to emotion as well as reason if they want to win - they need to make people feel good about themselves, and feel that Europe is a force for good that we all want, really want, to be part of. This is actually quite difficult for me to admit, because I am a great believer in human reason, but clearly reason in the age of social media is no longer enough on its own.

And to come back to the main point, Rose is not the man to do that for them. While his gravitas and business experience and links with the Conservatives are all useful, he has the charisma of a weighing machine and will certainly not fire people up with enthusiasm. They need a big hitter, somebody with real charm and appeal, to lead their campaign. The snag is, with Blair fundamentally discredited I don't know who it could be. Clarke would perhaps be the nearest, but he's a bit old.

EDIT - just a thought, but the man I would at least have tried to get, on reflection, is William Hague. He can't be accused of being unthinkingly pro-EU although he has drifted towards Europhilia over the years, he's a big name, a very effective speaker and although he wasn't a successful party leader he has the cachet of that and being a long-serving Foreign Secretary behind him. He would have been a much better man to be cheerleader for Europe - his past, apart from anything else, would have wrecked many of the 'Out' campaign's attack lines before they were even deployed.

Roger said:

Surely the European ambition is about being inclusive. Why then choose an archetypal Tory businessman and a member of the HoL to boot? Does anyone know who is behind this bizarre appointment?

That's a seriously good point. Surely to have true credibility, the leader of the "Stay" campaign needs to have cross-party support.
It's difficult to imagine any circumstances in which Jeremy Corbyn or his acolytes would have endorsed the candidature of Lord Rose.

Alanbrooke said:

Andrew Rawnsley on the Remain campaign

"They can also call on big figures from across the mainstream parties – Michael Heseltine, Tony Blair, Nick Clegg among them – to put their case."

I would think that bunch would hand most swing voters to Leave.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/11/campaign-to-stay-in-europe-wrapped-in-union-jack

That was my thought too!

richardDodd said:

ydoether. ..As you point out.. it is exactly the loss of sovereignty and the sinister way superstates are planning to force uncontrolled immigration that worries most people..

Yes - and it's not going to be successfully countered by the points that actually, Britain has much lower immigration than most of the rest of the EU, or that we still have veto over most of the key decisions, even though both are true. It just makes the people who are putting those lines look complacent.

If they put a positive case - that I (for example) and for that matter hundreds of other people benefitted from having a very hard-working and honest plumber from Lodz in my hometown after all the British plumbers had moved to more profitable areas, or that while creeping loss of veto is a worry, while we are in the EU we can still force changes to the rules to make them better for Britain (as Norway, for example, cannot, even though most EU decisions are ultimately binding on it as well) that would be far more helpful. That wouldn't convert diehard Eurosceptics, but it would encourage the swing voters to feel happier about the EU.

I worry that what we'll have from a campaign led by the likes of Rose is a reluctant endorsement of the EU and a huge residual bitterness, much as there is in Scotland now.

(PS - I am still undecided as to how I will vote, and have been tending to Leave. However, I expect Yes to win, and I want it therefore to be a victory that doesn't sour British politics and society for 40 years to come.)

Sean_F said:

Charles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Andrew Rawnsley on the Remain campaign

"They can also call on big figures from across the mainstream parties – Michael Heseltine, Tony Blair, Nick Clegg among them – to put their case."

I would think that bunch would hand most swing voters to Leave.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/11/campaign-to-stay-in-europe-wrapped-in-union-jack

That was my thought too!

I'd like Tony Blair to be the public face of Remain.

Nah, Nick Clegg. Too many Tories still respect Tony Blair...

Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.

June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU

Sean_F said:

Charles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Andrew Rawnsley on the Remain campaign

"They can also call on big figures from across the mainstream parties – Michael Heseltine, Tony Blair, Nick Clegg among them – to put their case."

I would think that bunch would hand most swing voters to Leave.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/11/campaign-to-stay-in-europe-wrapped-in-union-jack

That was my thought too!

I'd like Tony Blair to be the public face of Remain.

Has to be Blair. 45 minutes to save the EU etc.

ydoethur said:

dr_spyn said:

Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.

June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU

Who is June Sarpong? (That's a serious question, I've never heard of her.)

Like you I've no idea.

However, how long will the Comments remain open for on Nick Cohen's piece on Tom Watson's failings.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/11/deserved-downfall-tom-watson-leon-brittan

F1: just a reminder the race starts at the earlier than usual time of midday rather than 1pm.

david_herdson said:

Ydoethur - a big hitter with charm, appeal and the ability to put a case that speaks to people's hearts as well as minds? How about the PM?

I do wonder whether Rose's appointment is simply to allow someone to make the running during the negotiations when the PM can't commit to either side, for tactical reasons.

Hague would be better - apart from anything else, I think he's actually, despite everything, a more effective campaigner and speaker than Cameron is, and he's not got boring stuff like running the country to distract him. That way, Cameron could be kept back for maximum impact near the end.

Rose, as you say, may be the stop-gap for Cameron - but Rose won't build sufficient momentum for staying in, so the 'Stay' campaign might have to deploy Cameron too early, dividing the government and leaving the country without strong leadership for a while.

Incidentally, off-topic but I did find this about the relevance and sophisticated campaigning techniques of the current Labour party quite funny:

http://new.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/spittle-is-the-only-thing-labour-has-left/

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

dr_spyn said:

Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.

June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU

" Lord Rose said those who want to leave the EU of "fantasyland" economics and called their claims that Britain would thrive outside "bravado, not patriotism".

He warned that leaving the union would cost every family £3,000 a year"

What is it with the number 3?
First it was 3 million jobs, now it's £3k

£3000 a year - bargain !

Mr. Doethur, it can actually be very difficult to come up with amusing acronyms that fit what they're meant to be. Making one by accident is most impressive.

ydoethur said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

@jameskirkup: The IN Campaign has renamed itself Britain Stronger in Europe, so presumably BSE. Perhaps not the happiest acronym.

Oh dear. The first thing to do is surely check the acronym!

Fortunately the Central University Newcastle upon Tyne did....

Unfortunately, the department briefly and memorably named the department of Productivity, ENergy and InduStry didn't...

This brings up memories of government departments having totally unrelated branding. The uniform theme they have now is simple, effective, and actually quite nice.

Alanbrooke said:

TGOHF said:

ydoethur said:

dr_spyn said:

Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.

June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU

Who is June Sarpong? (That's a serious question, I've never heard of her.)

Ex TV type turned Labour luvvie.

How long until Bono and Eddie Izzard jump in ?

Eddie Izzard yes please. oh deep joy.

DavidL said:

I suspect that Stuart Rose was thought of as a suitable kind of cross party candidate. The problem with a professional politician (or at least one of the problems) is that they come with a party affiliation which might alienate as many as it attracts; a lot more, obviously, if your name is Nigel Farage.

I am genuinely undecided about this EU nonsense but I fear that the debate is going to do nothing to enlighten me one way or the other. From one side we will have fantasies of 3m unemployed and economic ruin and from the other fantasies of us getting whatever treaties and trade relations we want along with a whole lot of emotional guff.

My suspicion is that life outside the EU would be remarkably similar to life inside it with the EU impinging on my life to a similar extent by the application of EU standards from what would still be our largest single market. In either scenario I suspect I would have to search hard to find a difference and I doubt I could be bothered. A coherent and realistic plan for life outside the EU would probably get my vote but so would a sensible package from Cameron protecting us from EZ dominance. I fear I will not get either.

I'm afraid so, there will be more heat than light in the next 2 years.

JEO said:

Alanbrooke said:

TGOHF said:

ydoethur said:

dr_spyn said:

Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.

June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU

Who is June Sarpong? (That's a serious question, I've never heard of her.)

Ex TV type turned Labour luvvie.

How long until Bono and Eddie Izzard jump in ?

I believe Bono has a position of not getting involved in any political issue other than economic development, as it offends potential allies on that issue. He refused to take a position on the Iraq War despite heavy pressure to do so.

given Bono's tax arrangements this falls under economic development.

Roger said:

Surely the European ambition is about being inclusive. Why then choose an archetypal Tory businessman and a member of the HoL to boot? Does anyone know who is behind this bizarre appointment?

If they'd wanted a Tory surely someone like Heseltine would have been a better choice. A respected elder statesman and one with the overwhelming gratitude of the country for ridding it of our worst nightmare.

You moved to the posh end of France because of Heseltine? Really?

JEO said:

Alanbrooke said:

JEO said:

Alanbrooke said:

TGOHF said:

ydoethur said:

dr_spyn said:

Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.

June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU

Who is June Sarpong? (That's a serious question, I've never heard of her.)

Ex TV type turned Labour luvvie.

How long until Bono and Eddie Izzard jump in ?

I believe Bono has a position of not getting involved in any political issue other than economic development, as it offends potential allies on that issue. He refused to take a position on the Iraq War despite heavy pressure to do so.

given Bono's tax arrangements this falls under economic development.

Bono is tax resident in Ireland.

His companies pay taxes in the Netherlands.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

dr_spyn said:

Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.

June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU

" Lord Rose said those who want to leave the EU of "fantasyland" economics and called their claims that Britain would thrive outside "bravado, not patriotism".

He warned that leaving the union would cost every family £3,000 a year"

What is it with the number 3?
First it was 3 million jobs, now it's £3k

Large enough to be meaningful.

Small enough to be plausible.

For instance £1K people might say "painful, but I can manage that" and £9K is approx 40% of average income so doesn't sound realistic

Alanbrooke said:

Charles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

dr_spyn said:

Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.

June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU

" Lord Rose said those who want to leave the EU of "fantasyland" economics and called their claims that Britain would thrive outside "bravado, not patriotism".

He warned that leaving the union would cost every family £3,000 a year"

What is it with the number 3?
First it was 3 million jobs, now it's £3k

Large enough to be meaningful.

Small enough to be plausible.

For instance £1K people might say "painful, but I can manage that" and £9K is approx 40% of average income so doesn't sound realistic

with 25 millionish households in the UK the Remains are saying leaving will cost around £72 billion net.or around 5% of GDP. That doesn't look terribly plausible.

Wait, isn't that the SNP's oil revenue projections from last year?

Exactly.

Charles said:

DavidL said:

I suspect that Stuart Rose was thought of as a suitable kind of cross party candidate. The problem with a professional politician (or at least one of the problems) is that they come with a party affiliation which might alienate as many as it attracts; a lot more, obviously, if your name is Nigel Farage.

I am genuinely undecided about this EU nonsense but I fear that the debate is going to do nothing to enlighten me one way or the other. From one side we will have fantasies of 3m unemployed and economic ruin and from the other fantasies of us getting whatever treaties and trade relations we want along with a whole lot of emotional guff.

My suspicion is that life outside the EU would be remarkably similar to life inside it with the EU impinging on my life to a similar extent by the application of EU standards from what would still be our largest single market. In either scenario I suspect I would have to search hard to find a difference and I doubt I could be bothered. A coherent and realistic plan for life outside the EU would probably get my vote but so would a sensible package from Cameron protecting us from EZ dominance. I fear I will not get either.

That's my logic as well, which leads me to "Out"

Economically we're going to do just fine outside the EU.

And we will have control of our own destiny.

The last 12 months have been eye-opening. In situation after situation we've proposed practical and common sense solutions to problems that Europe is facing. But the EU just isn't interested in listening to us. That's fine - but I don't want to be part of a club where we aren't listened to.

Scott_P said:

@jameskirkup: The IN Campaign has renamed itself Britain Stronger in Europe, so presumably BSE. Perhaps not the happiest acronym.

Why would it be interested in using any acronyms rather than the words of its message?

JEO said:

Alanbrooke said:

Big Tobacco used EU rules to delay plain packaging

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/oct/11/tobacco-eu-delay

Stories like this will make it harder for an orgnaisation headed by a big business guy to click with the public.

I said last week that they'd have to be careful if picking a big business guy, as they wouldn't want to choose someone from a sector that benefiited from cheap Eastern European labour.

Then they go and pick a man from retail. Rose is talented, but how long before people ask what the share of the workforce of M&S, Topshop, Argos etc is British?

Yes, I agree, the Remain side is at risk of being fronted by big business types who have a vested interest in multinationalism.

Charles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

dr_spyn said:

Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.

June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU

" Lord Rose said those who want to leave the EU of "fantasyland" economics and called their claims that Britain would thrive outside "bravado, not patriotism".

He warned that leaving the union would cost every family £3,000 a year"

What is it with the number 3?
First it was 3 million jobs, now it's £3k

Large enough to be meaningful.

Small enough to be plausible.

For instance £1K people might say "painful, but I can manage that" and £9K is approx 40% of average income so doesn't sound realistic

Indeed. I would like to see these figures that get thrown around challenged/justified.

RobD said:

Alanbrooke said:

Charles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

dr_spyn said:

Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.

June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU

" Lord Rose said those who want to leave the EU of "fantasyland" economics and called their claims that Britain would thrive outside "bravado, not patriotism".

He warned that leaving the union would cost every family £3,000 a year"

What is it with the number 3?
First it was 3 million jobs, now it's £3k

Large enough to be meaningful.

Small enough to be plausible.

For instance £1K people might say "painful, but I can manage that" and £9K is approx 40% of average income so doesn't sound realistic

with 25 millionish households in the UK the Remains are saying leaving will cost around £72 billion net.or around 5% of GDP. That doesn't look terribly plausible.

Wait, isn't that the SNP's oil revenue projections from last year?

Nah much too low, Scotland has a GDP bigger than China before Westminster steals it all.

JEO said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

dr_spyn said:

Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.

June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU

" Lord Rose said those who want to leave the EU of "fantasyland" economics and called their claims that Britain would thrive outside "bravado, not patriotism".

He warned that leaving the union would cost every family £3,000 a year"

What is it with the number 3?
First it was 3 million jobs, now it's £3k

It seems like in Remain campaign is going down the scaremongering route. Saying the UK could not economically succeed on its own is just doing down Britain in my opinion.

If those of us on the fence are going to be persuaded we want to hear a positive argument for the EU, including how its deficiencies will be addressed.

The smart people at Vote Leave know all about Project Fear from Scotland and because they wrote some of it in the anti-AV campaign!

flightpath01 said:

Charles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Andrew Rawnsley on the Remain campaign

"They can also call on big figures from across the mainstream parties – Michael Heseltine, Tony Blair, Nick Clegg among them – to put their case."

I would think that bunch would hand most swing voters to Leave.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/11/campaign-to-stay-in-europe-wrapped-in-union-jack

That was my thought too!

Having a bit of a laugh on a Sunday morning is OK and fine.... but surely Charles you do realise you must do that the public is not so cynical and twisted as the average PB outer. With the exception of the migrant issue which I think is pretty well embedded in the public's mind I think the whole EU is a broad based mystery to most.

I agree. But they trust Blair and Clegg about as far as they could throw them. And they will assume they are selling a crock as a result.

JEO said:

Alanbrooke said:

JEO said:

Alanbrooke said:

TGOHF said:

ydoethur said:

dr_spyn said:

Don't worry a photogenic celebrity is more important than the endorsement of Blair, Brown & Major.

June Sarpong and 3 former PMs back campaign to keep Britain in the EU http://bit.ly/1OtJCkU

Who is June Sarpong? (That's a serious question, I've never heard of her.)

Ex TV type turned Labour luvvie.

How long until Bono and Eddie Izzard jump in ?

I believe Bono has a position of not getting involved in any political issue other than economic development, as it offends potential allies on that issue. He refused to take a position on the Iraq War despite heavy pressure to do so.

given Bono's tax arrangements this falls under economic development.

Bono is tax resident in Ireland.

For some things.