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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What we don’t know is whether the CON leadership contest

SystemSystem Posts: 12,551
edited October 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What we don’t know is whether the CON leadership contest will take place before or after the general election

One thing that David Cameron made very clear in his speech is that he is going to continue as leader right up to the general election. That, of course, assumes that there will be no dramatic event that would cause a move before then.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,203
    First!
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Second!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Yesterday David Cameron said: "As you know, I am not going to fight another election as your leader".

    So the leadership election must be this side of the next general election unless he changes his mind.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    There is absolutely no uncertainty whatsoever. He has said that he will not contest another general election as leader. That means that the next Conservative leader will be chosen before May 2020. There may or may not be a period of overlap between Cameron's premiership and the new leader's leadership, or there may be a honeymoon period for the new leader as PM in the run-up to the general election. But anyway, hippopotamuses don't vote for daffodils unless they want to.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    The timetable of this situation is messy.

    When will the new leader of the Conservative party be elected? It's hardly viable for the nation not to know who the new PM will be should the Tories win in 2020.

    So when before the election? .... In early 2020? .... probably not as the procedure might be fraught with danger in the months before polling. On balance I'd opt for autumn 2019 allowing the leader to bed in. As PM or just leader?

    Messy indeed.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    edited October 2015
    The difficulty with a new leader in autumn 2019 is giving enough time for a manifesto to be costed and written that has the new leaders input and views.

    A leadership selection after the election is a non starter in my view.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,679
    Of all political events, I'd say the leadership changeovers have the least chance of working out as intended/expected. I can't think of a single one in my lifetime that has. They are inherently messy. And speculating on them half a decade in advance, though fun, is probably about as useful as predicting the weather on the date of the next general election. Analysing Cameron's turns of phrase and attitudes minutely too, when, like most politicians, he'll just be swept along by, and try and take advantage of, events, is pretty pointless this far out.

    But I can't resist trying anyway. FWIW, my guess is that Cameron will go a few months earlier than most people think. He will see his power draining away, his wife will press him, and he's not the sort of man who likes hanging around for the sake of it. He's totally unlike Brown or Blair, whose fingernails left marks still visible on the doorframe of No.10.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    I agree with the comments below that DC will not contest the next GE and the new Con leader would be that party's candidate for PM - the people of the UK will not vote for an unknown. The article above mentions D Milliband as a potential Labour leader, which is ridiculous - he is as toxic as his brother and JC as PM would be infinitely preferable.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,110
    Good to see the best man for the job and the best woman for the job sat side by side in the photo above.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,669
    edited October 2015
    Autumn 2019 - it can be argued that is a full-term.

    Not much legislation happens in the final six months, he should have almost entirely delivered his manifesto; it allows his successor time to bed-in, and to build a platform for the 2020GE whilst still having something of a honeymoon.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JackW said:

    The timetable of this situation is messy.

    When will the new leader of the Conservative party be elected? It's hardly viable for the nation not to know who the new PM will be should the Tories win in 2020.

    So when before the election? .... In early 2020? .... probably not as the procedure might be fraught with danger in the months before polling. On balance I'd opt for autumn 2019 allowing the leader to bed in. As PM or just leader?

    Messy indeed.

    The new leader taking up the post in Autumn 2019 looks most likely to me. It gives the new Leader a 6 month honeymoon and position himself best for the GE.

    The political world will look quite different then, but who knows how.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,046
    He could of course do a reverse Neville Chamberlain - resign as party leader, but remain Prime Minister for a few months before resigning in the aftermath of an election and letting the new leader take over.

    It's just very hard to see what the Conservatives would gain from such an arrangement, particularly if they took leave of their senses and elected Osborne.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,669
    philiph said:

    The difficulty with a new leader in autumn 2019 is giving enough time for a manifesto to be costed and written that has the new leaders input and views.

    I don't think this is a problem. The manifesto this year was being redrafted and recut just weeks before the election itself.

    I don't think it came out until April.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,110
    If I was running the process, I would have a new party leader elected over the summer of 2019, ahead of Conference, but with DC remaining as PM right up to the exit poll coming out on election night. That system - with overlapping outgoing PM and new party leader - seems to work OK in other countries.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,705
    Cameron has done great service to his party as well as his country. If he achieves even a small proportion of what he was talking about yesterday he will have done even more. The idea that he is going to screw up the pitch for his successor is absurd.

    His successor will get a few months to get his or her feet under the desk, look Prime Ministerial and to put together the agenda for the next stage. I wonder if Corbyn will have the grace to do the same for his successor. Somehow I doubt it.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Go a year and a half early, give the new leader a year, and then slot back in if it doesn't work out... :)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Agree autumn 2019 looks most obvious time - EU referendum not intervening.....

    Meanwhile, to the north:

    A FORMER SNP MP whose property deals are at the centre of a police probe secured a £5,000 cheque for a pro-independence group from a convicted mortgage fraudster.

    Michelle Thomson also told her board colleagues at Business for Scotland (BfS) that she and Jamie Rae, who had previously been jailed for fifteen months, had “shared business interests”.

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/13810916.Former_SNP_MP_Michelle_Thomson_took___5k_cheque_for_a_pro_indy_group_from_a_CONVICTED_mortgage_fraudster/

    We are now seriously into 'you couldn't make it up' territory.....
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    By setting out all that he wants to achieve, the odds must be on him going in 2019 or 2020. Ideas that he would go straight after the EC referendum must now seem remote. Unless he badly lost that vote. Osborne gets 4 years to solidify himself and 4 years to f**K it up. 4 years to delve into his past....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,454
    CarlottaVance said:

    Agree autumn 2019 looks most obvious time - EU referendum not intervening.....

    Meanwhile, to the north:

    A FORMER SNP MP whose property deals are at the centre of a police probe secured a £5,000 cheque for a pro-independence group from a convicted mortgage fraudster.

    Michelle Thomson also told her board colleagues at Business for Scotland (BfS) that she and Jamie Rae, who had previously been jailed for fifteen months, had “shared business interests”.

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/13810916.Former_SNP_MP_Michelle_Thomson_took___5k_cheque_for_a_pro_indy_group_from_a_CONVICTED_mortgage_fraudster/

    We are now seriously into 'you couldn't make it up' territory.....

    Looks like a few Tories manged to infiltrate the SNP, given they get slimmer pickings in Scotland than their southern equivalents, doing a bit of moonlighting. You can never guess the lengths Tory troughers will go to.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    Dear God I know we are having a #cpc15gasm but there are many many threads due between now and whenever it is whoever it is becomes next Cons leader.

    Can we have a moment of not worrying the f**k about it and pick it up again, say, in 2017. After the EU ref might be as good a time as any if there must be thread after thread on the subject.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    SandyRentool said:

    If I was running the process, I would have a new party leader elected over the summer of 2019, ahead of Conference, but with DC remaining as PM right up to the exit poll coming out on election night. That system - with overlapping outgoing PM and new party leader - seems to work OK in other countries.

    That has the look of a grown up competent way of managing the process.

    Who knows, it may be the stimulus required to push us to a two term limit as PM.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Anyway, the whole debate seems a bit artificial. The EU referendum lies across the gate of rightwing politics like a dragon and until that has been dealt with the question of timetabling the next leadership election is premature. I doubt that Theseus had sorted out his wedding arrangements with Andromeda in advance of dealing with Cetus.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,035
    SandyRentool said:

    If I was running the process, I would have a new party leader elected over the summer of 2019, ahead of Conference, but with DC remaining as PM right up to the exit poll coming out on election night. That system - with overlapping outgoing PM and new party leader - seems to work OK in other countries.

    Agreed. Let the new leader concentrate on the election as DC finishes his program and steers it through Parliament. Seems to work fine in a lot of other countries.

    The big IF is still the EU referendum though, that is about the only known unknown of this Parliament.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    edited October 2015
    Come on Mike! How on Earth would Cameron fight an election on the basis that he would stand down very soon after? It wouldn't last five minutes. Why would you get suckered into that line?

    The only reason for the line that he is serving the full term is to stop people getting carried away. After all there are still 3 and a half years to go before he probably will stand down (early 2019).

    Edit: that is stand down as party leader but continue as PM until the autumn
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    TOPPING said:

    Dear God I know we are having a #cpc15gasm but there are many many threads due between now and whenever it is whoever it is becomes next Cons leader.

    Can we have a moment of not worrying the f**k about it and pick it up again, say, in 2017. After the EU ref might be as good a time as any if there must be thread after thread on the subject.

    Don't forget that this is a betting site.. money to be made getting it right.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,307
    SandyRentool said:

    If I was running the process, I would have a new party leader elected over the summer of 2019, ahead of Conference, but with DC remaining as PM right up to the exit poll coming out on election night. That system - with overlapping outgoing PM and new party leader - seems to work OK in other countries.

    Agree Sandy. The voters can't be given a situation where they don't know who the Tory Party will elect as the country's new PM after the election. Much as OGH is of the view we vote for a constituency MP, 2015 shows we vote to ensure we get a PM who can handle a bacon sandwich with a certain aplomb.

    Your solution allows Cameron to get a full term, and for the voters to both give him an appreciative cheerio whilst feeling the new guy or gal won't s care the horses.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Good morning, everyone.

    As Mr. Antifrank noted, Cameron said he wouldn't fight the next election as leader. If he attempted to do so, the party would probably rain on his parade.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    I thought Cameron was pretty clear and potentially set a workable precedent.

    Leadership election within 12 months of the GE.
    Stay on as PM until GE, whilst new leader elect plans manifesto and leads campaign
    New leader becomes PM if he/she wins

    Whether Cameron gets to do this remains to be seen. Authority can melt away overnight.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,427
    edited October 2015
    Cameron could well try and match Blair both with a third victory and ten years in No 10 then hand over to Osborne as Blair had to hand over to Brown. If Corbyn is still Labour leader even more likely as he clearly despises his agenda
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,427
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    As Mr. Antifrank noted, Cameron said he wouldn't fight the next election as leader. If he attempted to do so, the party would probably rain on his parade.

    Not if he helped MPs keep their seats
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,427
    MarqueeMark said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If I was running the process, I would have a new party leader elected over the summer of 2019, ahead of Conference, but with DC remaining as PM right up to the exit poll coming out on election night. That system - with overlapping outgoing PM and new party leader - seems to work OK in other countries.

    Agree Sandy. The voters can't be given a situation where they don't know who the Tory Party will elect as the country's new PM after the election. Much as OGH is of the view we vote for a constituency MP, 2015 shows we vote to ensure we get a PM who can handle a bacon sandwich with a certain aplomb.

    Your solution allows Cameron to get a full term, and for the voters to both give him an appreciative cheerio whilst feeling the new guy or gal won't s care the horses.
    2005 Tory posters had 'vote Blair get Brown'. Blair won
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,703
    Mr. HYUFD, lots of safe seats, and lots of people ambitious for the top job or vicariously (with contenders as patrons who would promote their allies).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. HYUFD, lots of safe seats, and lots of people ambitious for the top job or vicariously (with contenders as patrons who would promote their allies).

    If David Cameron negotiates the referendum without losing popularity he will be able to change his mind about standing down. But I don't think he will because his legacy would be secure and because Mrs C seems to have made his mind up on this subject.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    antifrank said:

    Anyway, the whole debate seems a bit artificial. The EU referendum lies across the gate of rightwing politics like a dragon and until that has been dealt with the question of timetabling the next leadership election is premature. I doubt that Theseus had sorted out his wedding arrangements with Andromeda in advance of dealing with Cetus.

    Yes the referendum is key. But no, there are betting opportunities this far out if long odds are available on some rivals.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,307
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    As Mr. Antifrank noted, Cameron said he wouldn't fight the next election as leader. If he attempted to do so, the party would probably rain on his parade.

    Not sure what Party rules say, but perhaps Cameron could be Prime Minister but not Party leader. That Party leader would become PM upon the condition subsequent of being rubber stamped by the voters as PM. I think everyone would accept that was a practical handover arrangement.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    A FORMER SNP MP whose property deals are at the centre of a police probe secured a £5,000 cheque for a pro-independence group from a convicted mortgage fraudster.

    Michelle Thomson also told her board colleagues at Business for Scotland (BfS) that she and Jamie Rae, who had previously been jailed for fifteen months, had “shared business interests”.
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13810943.Michelle_Thomson_took___5k_cheque_from_mortgage_fraudster/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    SquareRoot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dear God I know we are having a #cpc15gasm but there are many many threads due between now and whenever it is whoever it is becomes next Cons leader.

    Can we have a moment of not worrying the f**k about it and pick it up again, say, in 2017. After the EU ref might be as good a time as any if there must be thread after thread on the subject.

    Don't forget that this is a betting site.. money to be made getting it right.
    I don't forget it is a betting site (although perhaps 20% of the posters I reckon actually bet) but even so, four years out is a long time to tie up whatever it is that anyone else will match or the bookies will allow you on the result.

    And so many events in between I would say it's borderline insane to bet now on anything other than a hugely speculative basis.

    Anyway...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    MarqueeMark said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    As Mr. Antifrank noted, Cameron said he wouldn't fight the next election as leader. If he attempted to do so, the party would probably rain on his parade.

    Not sure what Party rules say, but perhaps Cameron could be Prime Minister but not Party leader. That Party leader would become PM upon the condition subsequent of being rubber stamped by the voters as PM. I think everyone would accept that was a practical handover arrangement.
    Major was PM but not Tory leader for a bit. To be PM you only have to command a majority in the HoC.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,454
    edited October 2015
    Scott_P said:

    A FORMER SNP MP whose property deals are at the centre of a police probe secured a £5,000 cheque for a pro-independence group from a convicted mortgage fraudster.

    Michelle Thomson also told her board colleagues at Business for Scotland (BfS) that she and Jamie Rae, who had previously been jailed for fifteen months, had “shared business interests”.
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13810943.Michelle_Thomson_took___5k_cheque_from_mortgage_fraudster/

    Beaten to it by your CCHQ colleague , you are late to the party with your old news. I presume the second division regional mugs hav ejust got today's tweet list
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    A FORMER SNP MP whose property deals are at the centre of a police probe secured a £5,000 cheque for a pro-independence group from a convicted mortgage fraudster.

    Michelle Thomson also told her board colleagues at Business for Scotland (BfS) that she and Jamie Rae, who had previously been jailed for fifteen months, had “shared business interests”.
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13810943.Michelle_Thomson_took___5k_cheque_from_mortgage_fraudster/
    Beaten to it by your CCHQ colleague , you are late to the party with your old news. I presume the second division regional mugs hav ejust got today's tweet list

    MI7 surely? Oh no - that's you!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Michelle Thomson, the beleaguered former SNP MP, is likely to be barred from ever returning to the party, a source close to the first minister claimed last night.

    The government insider said: “I don’t think there is any way the party will let her back in. She would have to re-apply to join the SNP and I can’t see the party welcoming her back.”

    If Ms Thomson is indeed frozen out of the SNP, she would either have to continue as an independent MP at Westminster or resign and force a by-election in Edinburgh West.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article4579640.ece
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I see Jezza has confirmed once again that he's a 12yrs old nitwit re The Queen. He's got a remarkable talent for this stuff.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,706
    In case anyone is interested, there's a nice coda to our discussion of Sion Simon and his illness on the last thread. Fox kindly sent me details of the clinical trial for the potential cure, I sent it to Sion's email address, and got an instant reply thanking us and saying yes, he was in the next wave of trial patients, and although it's only for one eye (the other is the control) he hopes it might save his sight. He is cheerfully carrying on with his political career in the meantime.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577
    NickPalmer said:

    In case anyone is interested, there's a nice coda to our discussion of Sion Simon and his illness on the last thread. Fox kindly sent me details of the clinical trial for the potential cure, I sent it to Sion's email address, and got an instant reply thanking us and saying yes, he was in the next wave of trial patients, and although it's only for one eye (the other is the control) he hopes it might save his sight. He is cheerfully carrying on with his political career in the meantime.

    Excellent! Always nice to see an example of British ingenuity at work. All the best to him.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    NickPalmer said:

    In case anyone is interested, there's a nice coda to our discussion of Sion Simon and his illness on the last thread. Fox kindly sent me details of the clinical trial for the potential cure, I sent it to Sion's email address, and got an instant reply thanking us and saying yes, he was in the next wave of trial patients, and although it's only for one eye (the other is the control) he hopes it might save his sight. He is cheerfully carrying on with his political career in the meantime.

    Thanks for sharing that Nick. Fingers crossed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,307
    NickPalmer said:

    In case anyone is interested, there's a nice coda to our discussion of Sion Simon and his illness on the last thread. Fox kindly sent me details of the clinical trial for the potential cure, I sent it to Sion's email address, and got an instant reply thanking us and saying yes, he was in the next wave of trial patients, and although it's only for one eye (the other is the control) he hopes it might save his sight. He is cheerfully carrying on with his political career in the meantime.

    If not perhaps his political predictions! That is good to hear, Nick.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,035
    Plato_Says said:

    I see Jezza has confirmed once again that he's a 12yrs old nitwit re The Queen. He's got a remarkable talent for this stuff.

    How on Earth can he genuinely be "Too Busy" to meet HMQ..? I'm sure if he speaks to the person he was meeting with, they will happily understand and rearrange the meeting. All rubbish of course, he's not too busy, he just doesn't see the point of it.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    antifrank said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. HYUFD, lots of safe seats, and lots of people ambitious for the top job or vicariously (with contenders as patrons who would promote their allies).

    If David Cameron negotiates the referendum without losing popularity he will be able to change his mind about standing down. But I don't think he will because his legacy would be secure and because Mrs C seems to have made his mind up on this subject.
    SamCam is a red herring imo -- it is the spectres of Blair, Thatcher and Wilson that haunt the Prime Minister who has already been leader for 10 years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,427
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. HYUFD, lots of safe seats, and lots of people ambitious for the top job or vicariously (with contenders as patrons who would promote their allies).

    Lots of MPs in marginal seats too who want Cameron to stay. Boris and May have limited support from MPs while Osborne's future is tied to Cameron's
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,116
    Plato_Says said:

    I see Jezza has confirmed once again that he's a 12yrs old nitwit re The Queen. He's got a remarkable talent for this stuff.

    He certainly does. Not a great message- assuming he needs access to the council for intelligence reports etc? A tad concerning he doesn't seem to care.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    George Osborne and the case for an early transition: if Cameron wants his BFF to be PM then 2017 achieves this in time for Osborne to enjoy his Premiership but then, being primarily a party man, develop a mild cough forcing him to stand down after two years if he is tanking in the polls.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Sandpit said:

    Plato_Says said:

    I see Jezza has confirmed once again that he's a 12yrs old nitwit re The Queen. He's got a remarkable talent for this stuff.

    How on Earth can he genuinely be "Too Busy" to meet HMQ..? I'm sure if he speaks to the person he was meeting with, they will happily understand and rearrange the meeting. All rubbish of course, he's not too busy, he just doesn't see the point of it.
    Does anyone know how long the process takes to join the PC re meeting HMQ etc?
    Can't take more than an hour or so.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,191
    CarlottaVance said:


    A FORMER SNP MP whose property deals are at the centre of a police probe secured a £5,000 cheque for a pro-independence group from a convicted mortgage fraudster.

    Michelle Thomson also told her board colleagues at Business for Scotland (BfS) that she and Jamie Rae, who had previously been jailed for fifteen months, had “shared business interests”.

    Scott_P said:

    A FORMER SNP MP whose property deals are at the centre of a police probe secured a £5,000 cheque for a pro-independence group from a convicted mortgage fraudster.

    Michelle Thomson also told her board colleagues at Business for Scotland (BfS) that she and Jamie Rae, who had previously been jailed for fifteen months, had “shared business interests”.

    The echo chamber..
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,597
    TOPPING said:

    SquareRoot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dear God I know we are having a #cpc15gasm but there are many many threads due between now and whenever it is whoever it is becomes next Cons leader.

    Can we have a moment of not worrying the f**k about it and pick it up again, say, in 2017. After the EU ref might be as good a time as any if there must be thread after thread on the subject.

    Don't forget that this is a betting site.. money to be made getting it right.
    I don't forget it is a betting site (although perhaps 20% of the posters I reckon actually bet) but even so, four years out is a long time to tie up whatever it is that anyone else will match or the bookies will allow you on the result.

    And so many events in between I would say it's borderline insane to bet now on anything other than a hugely speculative basis.

    Anyway...
    Hmm. Not sure I entirely agree with this. If I can tie up a £100 for fours years and then at the end double my money, by winning on a non-favourite, then I've beaten any ISA I know of.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,705
    Plato_Says said:

    I see Jezza has confirmed once again that he's a 12yrs old nitwit re The Queen. He's got a remarkable talent for this stuff.

    My 12 year old son would take great offence at this. He is vastly more mature and fully understands that he has to do things that he would rather not do to get on or to keep these weird adults happy.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,705
    Is there a market for next Chancellor? I think I would be putting my money on Gove.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,597
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Plato_Says said:

    I see Jezza has confirmed once again that he's a 12yrs old nitwit re The Queen. He's got a remarkable talent for this stuff.

    How on Earth can he genuinely be "Too Busy" to meet HMQ..? I'm sure if he speaks to the person he was meeting with, they will happily understand and rearrange the meeting. All rubbish of course, he's not too busy, he just doesn't see the point of it.
    Does anyone know how long the process takes to join the PC re meeting HMQ etc?
    Can't take more than an hour or so.

    He must have fantastic advisors. Still, all excellent for those of us already betting on next leader.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    On Topic: Could Cameron not stay as Prime Minister up until dissolution but the Tories have a new leader who would fight the election? Kind of like how the Americans do the Presidency? (Obama will stay President while someone else is fighting to become POTUS, etc...?)

    Off Topic: LOL@Jezza
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,035
    Ha, "Privy Council" is trending on worldwide Twitter right now! Lots of foreign journos trying to explain it to their readers too...
    https://twitter.com/search?q="Privy Council"&src=tren
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,454
    Theuniondivvie said:

    CarlottaVance said:


    A FORMER SNP MP whose property deals are at the centre of a police probe secured a £5,000 cheque for a pro-independence group from a convicted mortgage fraudster.

    Michelle Thomson also told her board colleagues at Business for Scotland (BfS) that she and Jamie Rae, who had previously been jailed for fifteen months, had “shared business interests”.

    Scott_P said:

    A FORMER SNP MP whose property deals are at the centre of a police probe secured a £5,000 cheque for a pro-independence group from a convicted mortgage fraudster.

    Michelle Thomson also told her board colleagues at Business for Scotland (BfS) that she and Jamie Rae, who had previously been jailed for fifteen months, had “shared business interests”.
    The echo chamber..

    His whole life
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Corbyn confirms what I said on here weeks ago, he has no interest in becoming PM, this is just an attention seeking ego trip for him. A few labour people will applaud his latest ridiculous protest, the majority will squirm with embarrassment.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,454
    edited October 2015
    Sandpit said:

    Ha, "Privy Council" is trending on worldwide Twitter right now! Lots of foreign journos trying to explain it to their readers too...
    https://twitter.com/search?q="Privy Council"&src=tren

    It is well named, using the normal Toilet Council just does not have the same ring to it. Was amazed to hear that there are 650 halfwits in it as well.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    rottenborough said:

    TOPPING said:

    SquareRoot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dear God I know we are having a #cpc15gasm but there are many many threads due between now and whenever it is whoever it is becomes next Cons leader.

    Can we have a moment of not worrying the f**k about it and pick it up again, say, in 2017. After the EU ref might be as good a time as any if there must be thread after thread on the subject.

    Don't forget that this is a betting site.. money to be made getting it right.
    I don't forget it is a betting site (although perhaps 20% of the posters I reckon actually bet) but even so, four years out is a long time to tie up whatever it is that anyone else will match or the bookies will allow you on the result.

    And so many events in between I would say it's borderline insane to bet now on anything other than a hugely speculative basis.

    Anyway...
    Hmm. Not sure I entirely agree with this. If I can tie up a £100 for fours years and then at the end double my money, by winning on a non-favourite, then I've beaten any ISA I know of.
    risk-adjusted?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Theuniondivvie said:

    CarlottaVance said:


    A FORMER SNP MP whose property deals are at the centre of a police probe secured a £5,000 cheque for a pro-independence group from a convicted mortgage fraudster.

    Michelle Thomson also told her board colleagues at Business for Scotland (BfS) that she and Jamie Rae, who had previously been jailed for fifteen months, had “shared business interests”.

    Scott_P said:

    A FORMER SNP MP whose property deals are at the centre of a police probe secured a £5,000 cheque for a pro-independence group from a convicted mortgage fraudster.

    Michelle Thomson also told her board colleagues at Business for Scotland (BfS) that she and Jamie Rae, who had previously been jailed for fifteen months, had “shared business interests”.
    The echo chamber..

    ITs not our fault two different newspapers cover the story the same way.......
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,597
    TOPPING said:

    rottenborough said:

    TOPPING said:

    SquareRoot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dear God I know we are having a #cpc15gasm but there are many many threads due between now and whenever it is whoever it is becomes next Cons leader.

    Can we have a moment of not worrying the f**k about it and pick it up again, say, in 2017. After the EU ref might be as good a time as any if there must be thread after thread on the subject.

    Don't forget that this is a betting site.. money to be made getting it right.
    I don't forget it is a betting site (although perhaps 20% of the posters I reckon actually bet) but even so, four years out is a long time to tie up whatever it is that anyone else will match or the bookies will allow you on the result.

    And so many events in between I would say it's borderline insane to bet now on anything other than a hugely speculative basis.

    Anyway...
    Hmm. Not sure I entirely agree with this. If I can tie up a £100 for fours years and then at the end double my money, by winning on a non-favourite, then I've beaten any ISA I know of.
    risk-adjusted?
    Well, true I could end up with nothing. Often do in fact :-)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577
    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ha, "Privy Council" is trending on worldwide Twitter right now! Lots of foreign journos trying to explain it to their readers too...
    https://twitter.com/search?q="Privy Council"&src=tren

    It is well named, using the normal Toilet Council just does not have the same ring to it. Was amazed to hear that there are 650 halfwits in it as well.
    Including the Right Honourable Alex Salmond and the Right Honourable Nicola Sturgeon.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,597
    DavidL said:

    Is there a market for next Chancellor? I think I would be putting my money on Gove.

    Well, he did get a big shout-out from Cam during his speech.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    Sandpit said:

    Ha, "Privy Council" is trending on worldwide Twitter right now! Lots of foreign journos trying to explain it to their readers too...
    https://twitter.com/search?q="Privy Council"&src=tren

    I'm amazed at the number of people who think that as they don't like it then Corbyn should be free to ignore it. Honestly, he makes sacrifice of his convictions and swears to the queen to be an MP, it wouldn't be a betrayal to do the same for the privy council and just indicate when he is pm he will get rid of the need for both, there's no need to make a stand on this issue (which he is - even if he does it later, the decision to delay is that stand)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,454
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ha, "Privy Council" is trending on worldwide Twitter right now! Lots of foreign journos trying to explain it to their readers too...
    https://twitter.com/search?q="Privy Council"&src=tren

    It is well named, using the normal Toilet Council just does not have the same ring to it. Was amazed to hear that there are 650 halfwits in it as well.
    Including the Right Honourable Alex Salmond and the Right Honourable Nicola Sturgeon.
    Another load of bolleaux "Right Honourable" my left buttock. Politicians love to give themselves fancy titles and make out how great and good they are , yet people know they are mainly money grabbing , lowlife , nonentities.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    rottenborough said:

    TOPPING said:

    rottenborough said:

    TOPPING said:

    SquareRoot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dear God I know we are having a #cpc15gasm but there are many many threads due between now and whenever it is whoever it is becomes next Cons leader.

    Can we have a moment of not worrying the f**k about it and pick it up again, say, in 2017. After the EU ref might be as good a time as any if there must be thread after thread on the subject.

    Don't forget that this is a betting site.. money to be made getting it right.
    I don't forget it is a betting site (although perhaps 20% of the posters I reckon actually bet) but even so, four years out is a long time to tie up whatever it is that anyone else will match or the bookies will allow you on the result.

    And so many events in between I would say it's borderline insane to bet now on anything other than a hugely speculative basis.

    Anyway...
    Hmm. Not sure I entirely agree with this. If I can tie up a £100 for fours years and then at the end double my money, by winning on a non-favourite, then I've beaten any ISA I know of.
    risk-adjusted?
    Well, true I could end up with nothing. Often do in fact :-)
    I never thought I'd be yearning for an AV thread....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited October 2015
    Scott_P said:

    Michelle Thomson, the beleaguered former SNP MP, is likely to be barred from ever returning to the party, a source close to the first minister claimed last night.

    Over a 'non-story'?

    That's a bit harsh!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I'm not overly worked up about Jezza not attending the formal swearing in to the Privy Council in the presence of Her Maj. It's a piece of flummery that is easily dispensed with by an Order in Council.

    However it is foolish politics. Jezza gets to burnish his lefty credentials that hardly require polishing further but his advisers might remind him that many Labour supporters and like minded folk have a great regard for the Queen and an apparent snub isn't the smartest play in the book.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    The mystery of Corbyn not attending Privy Council is solved...

    Bergerac is on BBC Two at 1pm today.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ha, "Privy Council" is trending on worldwide Twitter right now! Lots of foreign journos trying to explain it to their readers too...
    https://twitter.com/search?q="Privy Council"&src=tren

    It is well named, using the normal Toilet Council just does not have the same ring to it. Was amazed to hear that there are 650 halfwits in it as well.
    Including the Right Honourable Alex Salmond and the Right Honourable Nicola Sturgeon.
    Another load of bolleaux "Right Honourable" my left buttock. Politicians love to give themselves fancy titles and make out how great and good they are , yet people know they are mainly money grabbing , lowlife , nonentities.
    And yet here no one outside of formal events uses a title like that - compare to America, where a person in congress for 2 years will be addressed as congressman X for life.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,035
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ha, "Privy Council" is trending on worldwide Twitter right now! Lots of foreign journos trying to explain it to their readers too...
    https://twitter.com/search?q="Privy Council"&src=tren

    It is well named, using the normal Toilet Council just does not have the same ring to it. Was amazed to hear that there are 650 halfwits in it as well.
    Including the Right Honourable Alex Salmond and the Right Honourable Nicola Sturgeon.
    Another load of bolleaux "Right Honourable" my left buttock. Politicians love to give themselves fancy titles and make out how great and good they are , yet people know they are mainly money grabbing , lowlife , nonentities.
    Glad you're slowly coming around to the views of the rest of us with regard to Mr Salmond and Ms Sturgeon...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    GIN1138 said:

    On Topic: Could Cameron not stay as Prime Minister up until dissolution but the Tories have a new leader who would fight the election? Kind of like how the Americans do the Presidency? (Obama will stay President while someone else is fighting to become POTUS, etc...?)

    Off Topic: LOL@Jezza

    It would also solve this thorny problem of whoever is the next leader potentially only being PM for a few months if they lost the election.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    edited October 2015
    Jonathan said:

    The mystery of Corbyn not attending Privy Council is solved...

    Bergerac is on BBC Two at 1pm today.

    Someone get that man a DVR! Constitutional crisis averted.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,454
    CarlottaVance said:

    Scott_P said:

    Michelle Thomson, the beleaguered former SNP MP, is likely to be barred from ever returning to the party, a source close to the first minister claimed last night.

    Over a 'non-story'?

    That's a bit harsh!
    Now they know she is a Tory , she has no hope of getting back in.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,454
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ha, "Privy Council" is trending on worldwide Twitter right now! Lots of foreign journos trying to explain it to their readers too...
    https://twitter.com/search?q="Privy Council"&src=tren

    It is well named, using the normal Toilet Council just does not have the same ring to it. Was amazed to hear that there are 650 halfwits in it as well.
    Including the Right Honourable Alex Salmond and the Right Honourable Nicola Sturgeon.
    Another load of bolleaux "Right Honourable" my left buttock. Politicians love to give themselves fancy titles and make out how great and good they are , yet people know they are mainly money grabbing , lowlife , nonentities.
    And yet here no one outside of formal events uses a title like that - compare to America, where a person in congress for 2 years will be addressed as congressman X for life.
    Another bunch of pork belly francis's
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ha, "Privy Council" is trending on worldwide Twitter right now! Lots of foreign journos trying to explain it to their readers too...
    https://twitter.com/search?q="Privy Council"&src=tren

    It is well named, using the normal Toilet Council just does not have the same ring to it. Was amazed to hear that there are 650 halfwits in it as well.
    Including the Right Honourable Alex Salmond and the Right Honourable Nicola Sturgeon.
    And the Right Honourable Angus Robertson MP.......
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    The mystery of Corbyn not attending Privy Council is solved...

    Bergerac is on BBC Two at 1pm today.

    Someone get that man a DVR!
    I think DVRs are against Corbyn's principles. I believe he is against anything that happened after 1983. Only begrudgingly watches channel 4.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,454
    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ha, "Privy Council" is trending on worldwide Twitter right now! Lots of foreign journos trying to explain it to their readers too...
    https://twitter.com/search?q="Privy Council"&src=tren

    It is well named, using the normal Toilet Council just does not have the same ring to it. Was amazed to hear that there are 650 halfwits in it as well.
    Including the Right Honourable Alex Salmond and the Right Honourable Nicola Sturgeon.
    Another load of bolleaux "Right Honourable" my left buttock. Politicians love to give themselves fancy titles and make out how great and good they are , yet people know they are mainly money grabbing , lowlife , nonentities.
    Glad you're slowly coming around to the views of the rest of us with regard to Mr Salmond and Ms Sturgeon...
    I think that of all politician's, and am not usually proven wrong. On the odd occasion there is a decent one it is a pleasant surprise.
  • madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ha, "Privy Council" is trending on worldwide Twitter right now! Lots of foreign journos trying to explain it to their readers too...
    https://twitter.com/search?q="Privy Council"&src=tren

    I'm amazed at the number of people who think that as they don't like it then Corbyn should be free to ignore it. Honestly, he makes sacrifice of his convictions and swears to the queen to be an MP, it wouldn't be a betrayal to do the same for the privy council and just indicate when he is pm he will get rid of the need for both, there's no need to make a stand on this issue (which he is - even if he does it later, the decision to delay is that stand)
    Man decides to put his lifelong beliefs before his chances of winning power. So diminishing his chances of implementing his beliefs through taking power.
    Brave.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Jonathan said:

    The mystery of Corbyn not attending Privy Council is solved...

    Bergerac is on BBC Two at 1pm today.

    Even Corbyn is not immune to the charms of Louise Jameson..
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,124
    CarlottaVance said:

    Scott_P said:

    Michelle Thomson, the beleaguered former SNP MP, is likely to be barred from ever returning to the party, a source close to the first minister claimed last night.

    Over a 'non-story'?

    That's a bit harsh!
    So is she going to sit as an Independent or join one of the other parties. Assuming anyone will have her, of course.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Sandpit said:

    Plato_Says said:

    I see Jezza has confirmed once again that he's a 12yrs old nitwit re The Queen. He's got a remarkable talent for this stuff.

    How on Earth can he genuinely be "Too Busy" to meet HMQ..? I'm sure if he speaks to the person he was meeting with, they will happily understand and rearrange the meeting. All rubbish of course, he's not too busy, he just doesn't see the point of it.
    Good morning all. Of course he's playing games. There is no meeting that cannot be re-arranged if you trot out "Terribly sorry, old bean, got to meet the Queen". He is not playing his limited hand very well. There was Mr Palmer telling us just last night that Jeremy was an 'intellectual'. lol.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,307
    OldKingCole said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Scott_P said:

    Michelle Thomson, the beleaguered former SNP MP, is likely to be barred from ever returning to the party, a source close to the first minister claimed last night.

    Over a 'non-story'?

    That's a bit harsh!
    So is she going to sit as an Independent or join one of the other parties. Assuming anyone will have her, of course.
    SNP MP's getting their independence - one seat at a time....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MichaelLCrick: David Rogers, author of new book on Privy Council doubts whether Corbyn can become PC through an Order in Council without attending himself
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited October 2015
    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Scott_P said:

    Michelle Thomson, the beleaguered former SNP MP, is likely to be barred from ever returning to the party, a source close to the first minister claimed last night.

    Over a 'non-story'?

    That's a bit harsh!
    Now they know she is a Tory , she has no hope of getting back in.
    And she's been under cover for 34 years.....

    Thomson joined the SNP at 16 years old in 1981

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michelle_Thomson

    What other sleepers do you think the Tories have buried deep within the SNP?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,307
    Re the Privy Council: someone needs to counsel Jeremy that his credibility with the public is going down the khazi. If you are going to take a principled stand against some archaic procedure, then say so, up front. Don't hide behind some spurious "diary clash".

    His place in history isn't even going to merit a footnote at this rate. Just

    "Jeremy Corbyn - pfft..... "
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    JackW said:

    I'm not overly worked up about Jezza not attending the formal swearing in to the Privy Council in the presence of Her Maj. It's a piece of flummery that is easily dispensed with by an Order in Council.

    However it is foolish politics. Jezza gets to burnish his lefty credentials that hardly require polishing further but his advisers might remind him that many Labour supporters and like minded folk have a great regard for the Queen and an apparent snub isn't the smartest play in the book.

    I agree with JackW. If Paris is worth a mass, surely Britain is worth a kneel?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    OldKingCole said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Scott_P said:

    Michelle Thomson, the beleaguered former SNP MP, is likely to be barred from ever returning to the party, a source close to the first minister claimed last night.

    Over a 'non-story'?

    That's a bit harsh!
    So is she going to sit as an Independent or join one of the other parties. Assuming anyone will have her, of course.
    Assuming the police investigations do not show up anything untoward, malcolm thinks she's been a Tory deep cover agent for 34 years.....makes you wonder who else in the SNP is a Tory.....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,454
    CarlottaVance said:

    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Scott_P said:

    Michelle Thomson, the beleaguered former SNP MP, is likely to be barred from ever returning to the party, a source close to the first minister claimed last night.

    Over a 'non-story'?

    That's a bit harsh!
    Now they know she is a Tory , she has no hope of getting back in.
    And she's been under cover for 34 years.....

    Thomson joined the SNP at 16 years old in 1981

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michelle_Thomson

    What other sleepers do you think the Tories have buried deep within the SNP?
    Deep Cover indeed. Given the paucity of Tories in Scotland , they will not have been able to afford many sleepers. They had to keep enough to fill a taxi at least.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    As long as William Hill don't class this as "not kneeling"...
    antifrank said:

    JackW said:

    I'm not overly worked up about Jezza not attending the formal swearing in to the Privy Council in the presence of Her Maj. It's a piece of flummery that is easily dispensed with by an Order in Council.

    However it is foolish politics. Jezza gets to burnish his lefty credentials that hardly require polishing further but his advisers might remind him that many Labour supporters and like minded folk have a great regard for the Queen and an apparent snub isn't the smartest play in the book.

    I agree with JackW. If Paris is worth a mass, surely Britain is worth a kneel?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Scott_P said:

    @MichaelLCrick: David Rogers, author of new book on Privy Council doubts whether Corbyn can become PC through an Order in Council without attending himself

    Hhhmmm .... Not too sure why ?? ....

    It's Her Maj's Privy Council. What Liz says goes.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    antifrank said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. HYUFD, lots of safe seats, and lots of people ambitious for the top job or vicariously (with contenders as patrons who would promote their allies).

    If David Cameron negotiates the referendum without losing popularity he will be able to change his mind about standing down. But I don't think he will because his legacy would be secure and because Mrs C seems to have made his mind up on this subject.
    SamCam is a red herring imo -- it is the spectres of Blair, Thatcher and Wilson that haunt the Prime Minister who has already been leader for 10 years.
    Remember that when he was a young adult the clear view among the Hampshire and Berkshire Tories was that Thatcher should have gone in 87/88. I suspect that may have informed his views more than many realise
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    blackburn63 said:

    Corbyn confirms what I said on here weeks ago, he has no interest in becoming PM, this is just an attention seeking ego trip for him. A few labour people will applaud his latest ridiculous protest, the majority will squirm with embarrassment.

    I don't think attention seeking ego trip is his objective, to be PM would be a bonus but not on his initial list of expectations.

    To change the Labour party into a party that is democratic and acts according to the wishes of its members, which he assumes will result in policies that project his views and beliefs, to be a more radical and left wing Labour party.

    To be a party that is owned and run at all levels by the membership to pursue the aims and direction of the membership. Where the members take control through directly elected representatives of the NEC, the policy forum (if that is the name), the local parties, Prospective Parliamentary Candidate selection etc etc.

    Then his work is done.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,191
    CarlottaVance said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    CarlottaVance said:


    A FORMER SNP MP whose property deals are at the centre of a police probe secured a £5,000 cheque for a pro-independence group from a convicted mortgage fraudster.

    Michelle Thomson also told her board colleagues at Business for Scotland (BfS) that she and Jamie Rae, who had previously been jailed for fifteen months, had “shared business interests”.

    Scott_P said:

    A FORMER SNP MP whose property deals are at the centre of a police probe secured a £5,000 cheque for a pro-independence group from a convicted mortgage fraudster.

    Michelle Thomson also told her board colleagues at Business for Scotland (BfS) that she and Jamie Rae, who had previously been jailed for fifteen months, had “shared business interests”.
    The echo chamber..
    ITs not our fault two different newspapers cover the story the same way.......

    You mean the same piece by the same hack appearing in sister papers?
    Not very observant, the plastic Jocks.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    CarlottaVance said:

    .makes you wonder who else in the SNP is a Tory.....

    Eck must be a prime suspect.

    Throwing the referendum like that...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Theuniondivvie said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    CarlottaVance said:


    A FORMER SNP MP whose property deals are at the centre of a police probe secured a £5,000 cheque for a pro-independence group from a convicted mortgage fraudster.

    Michelle Thomson also told her board colleagues at Business for Scotland (BfS) that she and Jamie Rae, who had previously been jailed for fifteen months, had “shared business interests”.

    Scott_P said:

    A FORMER SNP MP whose property deals are at the centre of a police probe secured a £5,000 cheque for a pro-independence group from a convicted mortgage fraudster.

    Michelle Thomson also told her board colleagues at Business for Scotland (BfS) that she and Jamie Rae, who had previously been jailed for fifteen months, had “shared business interests”.
    The echo chamber..
    ITs not our fault two different newspapers cover the story the same way.......
    You mean the same piece by the same hack appearing in sister papers?
    Not very observant, the plastic Jocks.

    Zoomer central clearly struggling.

    Banishment forever for a non-story.......
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