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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What we don’t know is whether the CON leadership contest
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What we don’t know is whether the CON leadership contest will take place before or after the general election
One thing that David Cameron made very clear in his speech is that he is going to continue as leader right up to the general election. That, of course, assumes that there will be no dramatic event that would cause a move before then.
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So the leadership election must be this side of the next general election unless he changes his mind.
When will the new leader of the Conservative party be elected? It's hardly viable for the nation not to know who the new PM will be should the Tories win in 2020.
So when before the election? .... In early 2020? .... probably not as the procedure might be fraught with danger in the months before polling. On balance I'd opt for autumn 2019 allowing the leader to bed in. As PM or just leader?
Messy indeed.
A leadership selection after the election is a non starter in my view.
But I can't resist trying anyway. FWIW, my guess is that Cameron will go a few months earlier than most people think. He will see his power draining away, his wife will press him, and he's not the sort of man who likes hanging around for the sake of it. He's totally unlike Brown or Blair, whose fingernails left marks still visible on the doorframe of No.10.
Not much legislation happens in the final six months, he should have almost entirely delivered his manifesto; it allows his successor time to bed-in, and to build a platform for the 2020GE whilst still having something of a honeymoon.
The political world will look quite different then, but who knows how.
It's just very hard to see what the Conservatives would gain from such an arrangement, particularly if they took leave of their senses and elected Osborne.
I don't think it came out until April.
His successor will get a few months to get his or her feet under the desk, look Prime Ministerial and to put together the agenda for the next stage. I wonder if Corbyn will have the grace to do the same for his successor. Somehow I doubt it.
Meanwhile, to the north:
A FORMER SNP MP whose property deals are at the centre of a police probe secured a £5,000 cheque for a pro-independence group from a convicted mortgage fraudster.
Michelle Thomson also told her board colleagues at Business for Scotland (BfS) that she and Jamie Rae, who had previously been jailed for fifteen months, had “shared business interests”.
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/13810916.Former_SNP_MP_Michelle_Thomson_took___5k_cheque_for_a_pro_indy_group_from_a_CONVICTED_mortgage_fraudster/
We are now seriously into 'you couldn't make it up' territory.....
Can we have a moment of not worrying the f**k about it and pick it up again, say, in 2017. After the EU ref might be as good a time as any if there must be thread after thread on the subject.
Who knows, it may be the stimulus required to push us to a two term limit as PM.
The big IF is still the EU referendum though, that is about the only known unknown of this Parliament.
The only reason for the line that he is serving the full term is to stop people getting carried away. After all there are still 3 and a half years to go before he probably will stand down (early 2019).
Edit: that is stand down as party leader but continue as PM until the autumn
Your solution allows Cameron to get a full term, and for the voters to both give him an appreciative cheerio whilst feeling the new guy or gal won't s care the horses.
As Mr. Antifrank noted, Cameron said he wouldn't fight the next election as leader. If he attempted to do so, the party would probably rain on his parade.
Leadership election within 12 months of the GE.
Stay on as PM until GE, whilst new leader elect plans manifesto and leads campaign
New leader becomes PM if he/she wins
Whether Cameron gets to do this remains to be seen. Authority can melt away overnight.
And so many events in between I would say it's borderline insane to bet now on anything other than a hugely speculative basis.
Anyway...
Beaten to it by your CCHQ colleague , you are late to the party with your old news. I presume the second division regional mugs hav ejust got today's tweet list
MI7 surely? Oh no - that's you!
Can't take more than an hour or so.
The echo chamber..
Off Topic: LOL@Jezza
https://twitter.com/search?q="Privy Council"&src=tren
His whole life
ITs not our fault two different newspapers cover the story the same way.......
That's a bit harsh!
However it is foolish politics. Jezza gets to burnish his lefty credentials that hardly require polishing further but his advisers might remind him that many Labour supporters and like minded folk have a great regard for the Queen and an apparent snub isn't the smartest play in the book.
Bergerac is on BBC Two at 1pm today.
Brave.
Thomson joined the SNP at 16 years old in 1981
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michelle_Thomson
What other sleepers do you think the Tories have buried deep within the SNP?
His place in history isn't even going to merit a footnote at this rate. Just
"Jeremy Corbyn - pfft..... "
It's Her Maj's Privy Council. What Liz says goes.
To change the Labour party into a party that is democratic and acts according to the wishes of its members, which he assumes will result in policies that project his views and beliefs, to be a more radical and left wing Labour party.
To be a party that is owned and run at all levels by the membership to pursue the aims and direction of the membership. Where the members take control through directly elected representatives of the NEC, the policy forum (if that is the name), the local parties, Prospective Parliamentary Candidate selection etc etc.
Then his work is done.
You mean the same piece by the same hack appearing in sister papers?
Not very observant, the plastic Jocks.
Throwing the referendum like that...
Not very observant, the plastic Jocks.
Zoomer central clearly struggling.
Banishment forever for a non-story.......