politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First polling reaction to Corbyn speech – an Ipsos MORI foc

Wow, Michelle Tomson is an un-person...

http://www.snp.org/people/michelle-thomson

SouthamObserver said:

On Carmichael, presumably the court will be aware that it could create some very broad precedent. If it does, the election campaign process is going to be very different in the future and will affect all candidates in all parties. You'd have thought it would want to avoid that.
This is UK law the court is deciding on, isn't it?

Yes it is. The lack of detailed reference to the English authorities is quite surprising. It seems the judges have almost gone back to first principles and simple statutory interpretation. I am concerned about the breadth of the implications.

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

On Carmichael, presumably the court will be aware that it could create some very broad precedent. If it does, the election campaign process is going to be very different in the future and will affect all candidates in all parties. You'd have thought it would want to avoid that.
This is UK law the court is deciding on, isn't it?

Yes it is. The lack of detailed reference to the English authorities is quite surprising. It seems the judges have almost gone back to first principles and simple statutory interpretation. I am concerned about the breadth of the implications.

Perhaps they are looking ahead to the time when Scotland is a foreign country and anticipating challenges that might arise from bringing in foreign authorities.

I only caught a smidgen of the speech in the car and it was the mollifying bit about nice politics and people being grown up enough to agree to disagree.

All fine, but then I thought to myself, this is a guy who's been married three times.

I'm still on my first marriage, so on that basis, I'm more willing to be be agreeable than Corbyn.

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

malcolmg said:

she is not named or involved at this stage in the investigation.

Thomson, who said she always acted within the law, has withdrawn from her role as the SNP’s Business, Innovation and Skills spokesperson in the House of Commons and as party whip while the investigation takes place.

An investigation she is not involved in...

Put down the Bucky, Malc, you've had enough for one night.

Always the sign of a loser, saddo if I was drinking it would be classier than that, I am not like you and your lowlife friends. I can afford real stuff. Now F Off and don't ever post to me again you cretin.

You've upset him now: he's a purple tin.

I don't know what they are talking about...

@faisalislam: Another big breaking story of course is SNP MP @MichelleThomson ... @joncraig now reporting it...

Roger said:

Isn't it extraordinary the attention the Labour conference is getting. Compare with the Lib's whose conference went unnoticed.

Carlotta mentioned advertising. The 4 principles of advertising and 'The Corbyn effect'


1. Get peoples attention -Check
2. Make your claims believable -check
3. Make your product desirable -check
4. Motivate your target market to do something -check

1. Get peoples attention - Check
2. Make your claims believable - No.
3. Make your product desirable - No way.
4. Motivate your target market to do something - Vote Tory.

SandyRentool said:

Good speech, as was yesterday's from McD. It is so refreshing to see Labour figures saying things that their predecessors have been too timid to say.

A good start for Sh1t or Bust Labour. So far, I think l did the right thing voting for JC.

I think you'll find that his predecessors were a bit more savvy, some of them not by very much admittedly.

TGOHF said:

Who goes Dair ?

Well, at least Fiona's in the clear...

Culture Secretary Fiona Hyslop is under increasing pressure for failing to answer questions on a Scottish Government payment of £150,000 to the T in the Park music festival.

Scottish Labour has called for Hyslop to make a full ministerial statement on the issue, while the Scottish Conservatives have called for First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to intervene.

https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/fiona-hyslop-under-pressure-over-t-park-funding

Scott_P said:

ydoethur said:

Surely that would be Angus Robertson's job, not Sturgeon's? Or do the SNP run their Westminster cadre from Holyrood?

That's why Nicola flew down from Edinburgh on the first day on the new Parliament, to remind them who's in charge.

It's appalling that the SNP leader thinks she leads the SNP. This proves that the Conservatives are good.

EPG said:

It's appalling that the SNP leader thinks she leads the SNP.

What about poor Angus? Just a spare pillock at the wedding?

Do all such politicians nowadays use speech writers---part of the time or usually? Did Churchill use one? Cameron? The latter's delivery indicates to me that he could have a 2nd career on the stage or perhaps selling stuff.

@holyroodmandy: Who is speaking for @theSNP on Michelle Thomson story? Phones ring out, no one knows anything, is it WM, Holyrood, HQ - times have changed.

Toms said:

Do all such politicians nowadays use speech writers---part of the time or usually? Did Churchill use one? Cameron? The latter's delivery indicates to me that he could have a 2nd career on the stage or perhaps selling stuff.

Yes they do use writers, just not normally ones from four years ago, which have been published on an obscure blog and turned down by multiple losers.

saddened said:

Toms said:

Do all such politicians nowadays use speech writers---part of the time or usually? Did Churchill use one? Cameron? The latter's delivery indicates to me that he could have a 2nd career on the stage or perhaps selling stuff.

Yes they do use writers, just not normally ones from four years ago, which have been published on an obscure blog and turned down by multiple losers.

I have no idea why your comment reminded me of a remark I heard the other day by a critic that he reckoned that foreigners "make better movies of Shakespeare plays" (for instance Kurosawa) because they didn't let language get in the way.

Carnyx said:

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

On Carmichael, presumably the court will be aware that it could create some very broad precedent. If it does, the election campaign process is going to be very different in the future and will affect all candidates in all parties. You'd have thought it would want to avoid that.
This is UK law the court is deciding on, isn't it?

A Scottish judgement is not binding on a Court in England and Wales, or in Northern Ireland. But, it can be persuasive.

Today's written judgement certainly pays close attention to what has happened in past cases, as it happens, so it seems to be working the other way too.

Hi Carnyx,

Welcome back!

chestnut said:

Telegraph running with the 1980s Reject line.

not the strongest, let's be honest.

but a reminder to some their "new" politics has been tried before?

I went along to the IPSOS-MORI fringe event - mostly it was about the survey that was published a week or two ago (showing Tories 4 points ahead among all voters, 6 points among likely voters) but they added snippets from the focus group of 8 (yes, eight) voters. They liked Corbyn and thought him authentic and "one of us" but weren't "yet convinced enough" that he had the right policies.

Dan Hodges was there, and definitely not a fan - there was some amiable sparring with the audience which the IPSOS guy cut off: "New nicer politics, remember!"

Scrapheap_as_was said:

alexmassie ‏@alexmassie 5 mins5 minutes ago
@SamCoatesTimes So they go from "no similarity" to "Heller was cool"?
2 retweets 1 favourite
Reply Retweet 2 Favourite 1
More

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 5 mins5 minutes ago Brighton, England
@alexmassie The initial utter denial was done by the spokesman, before he had checked the facts

So how comes the spokesman's denial counts as a denial, but the PM's Official Spokesman's denials don't?

(At least according to @putin'sluckyguy

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Whenever I give speeches in the US, I always start by asking:

"In the post World War II period, only one US warship has been destroyed by enemy fire. Which country was doing the attacking?"

No-one ever gets it right :-)

It's almost as good as "In the Catholic doctrine of the immaculate conception, who's conception is it that's immaculate?"

Israel and Mary?

Absolutely right. It's amazing how few Catholics get the second one right; and I once took £5 off an Anglican vicar at a wedding on the question...

Yes! Finally found a use for my Theology A level!

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

Eagle

"Speaking to my Manchester focus group of 30 something professionals"

Is that professionals or pros?

They say the legal profession is the world's second oldest profession.

Having spent fifteen years working in the legal profession I can say it shares similarities to the world's oldest profession

I always thought that spying was the 2nd oldest.
Learn something new every day on PB

Nah, it's banking and prostitution.

They both involve screwing people for money

Guardian Jonathan Freedland nearly word-for-word same as Dan.

It really is like shooting fish in a barrel.

Sean_F said:

Carnyx said:

malcolmg said:

SouthamObserver said:

On Carmichael, presumably the court will be aware that it could create some very broad precedent. If it does, the election campaign process is going to be very different in the future and will affect all candidates in all parties. You'd have thought it would want to avoid that.
This is UK law the court is deciding on, isn't it?

So prosecuting lying cheating politicians would be against English Law.

Evening, Malc and SO. Hope you are well.

From what I recall, it is the same law as the recent cases down Sarf so it is - de facto - Uk wide. I do seem to recall there was some incomprehension between the devotees of the two different systems) when Mr Carmichael was being prosecuted.

A very interesting posting by Lallans PW (as usual) if nobody has commented on it -

http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/we-wish-to-hear-evidence.html

That is an interesting piece, but I'm not at all convinced that the Judges are correct that Section 106 punishes lying about oneself, as opposed to lying about other candidates.

He is an out and out liar

Back to the 80's comrades!!

ROFL

Oh , Roger on the previous thread - not exactly a great advert for private education.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Jezza did just fine...

if you know what I mean.

if you are a tory then he did great.

If you want a decent Labour party - well..........................

rcs1000 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Cyclefree said:

surbiton said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

I actually thought he was better than Miliband as Mili always seemed to be walking a tightrope between what he wanted to say and what he felt he ought to say to get elected. Corbyn didn't bother with the second at all so was more consistent.

I give him some credit as well for taking on the Saudis (although no mention of Wahhabism) and for making clear how the high cost of housing pushes up the benefits bill.

On the downside, there was a lot of waffle (you could easily cut 10 minutes out) and some areas such as the NHS hardly got a mention. I thought the defence section was unconvincing (retraining trident workers) as was foreign policy (making peace with ISIS). Wasn't there supposed to be something about loving Britain in there - if so I must have zoned out. Nothing in there for voters in Middle England.

He is the first British politician to criticise the Saudis openly.

About bloody time. But the Saudis, IS, Hezbollah, Hamas, Al Qaeda, Boko Haram, Al-Shabab, Muslim Brotherhood etc etc - they all drink from the same poisoned well. Criticise one, criticise all. Will Corbyn go that far or is he just doing the lefty version of "this group may be bastards but they're OUR bastards"?

"Israel may be bastards but they're OUR bastards"?

To be fair it was 1948 when the Israelis last attempted to blow up British soldiers or civilians. The others have more recent form.

Although the Israelis were the most recent country to destroy a US warship.

What more do they need to do to get Corbyn to like them?

Key snaps of Corbyn's speech tonight on 10pm BBC news, anti austerity, anti airstrikes on ISIS, anti Trident, anti selection in schools, not exactly a platform for floating voters even if they liked it in the hall. One of first reactions from Len McCluskey

ComRes

Cameron is preferred to Corbyn as Prime Minister. But ratings similar to those of Cameron vs Miliband at GE2015

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQFgS5GWgAAg0kp.jpg

Tories retain big leads on economic trust & defence. Labour are more trusted on health & benefits

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQFf4KoWgAAkHox.jpg

Another inspirational speech from the new Labour leader,causing another 250 people to join the party during his speech.There is no doubt Jezza has the necessary kharma and mojo to fend off the negative waves.After this you have to be on Bernie Sanders to do the same.Are you feeling it? #FeelTheBern

Mike's always cautious of any polling conducted during conference season

ReggieCide said:

SandyRentool said:

Good speech, as was yesterday's from McD. It is so refreshing to see Labour figures saying things that their predecessors have been too timid to say.

A good start for Sh1t or Bust Labour. So far, I think l did the right thing voting for JC.

I think you'll find that his predecessors were a bit more savvy, some of them not by very much admittedly.

On the lifted speech Labour should look on the bright side and also save themselves a bit of dosh....


They could always follow up by using all those left over " Fire up the Quattro " posters....

Telegraph front page - Awesome picture of Corbyn

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQGT-FkWEAE7gyU.jpg

@PickardJE: ComRes poll: who would make best PM?

Cameron 54, Corbyn 30

Compared to

Cameron 52, Miliband 31 (pre election)

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Telegraph front page - Awesome picture of Corbyn

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQGT-FkWEAE7gyU.jpg

And Matt

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=11900306&cc=11838535

the Corbyn Pic is awesome.. lorralorralaughs.

SouthamObserver said:

malcolmg said:

SouthamObserver said:

On Carmichael, presumably the court will be aware that it could create some very broad precedent. If it does, the election campaign process is going to be very different in the future and will affect all candidates in all parties. You'd have thought it would want to avoid that.
This is UK law the court is deciding on, isn't it?

So prosecuting lying cheating politicians would be against English Law.

Lying, cheating politicians are not confined to one party. My guess is that even SNP MPs have been known to tell the odd fib.

Oh! now your for it :-)

Did like this quip from Hodges

"Finally he began to confronted the really big issues facing the nation. Such as trolling on social media. It had to stop, he said. The conference rose in acclamation at his words. The Tories may be the people you turn to when you want things like the economy fixed. But someone swears at you on Twitter? Labour will be there."

This Matt cartoon is a few days ago, but it's remarkably good even by his standards.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=11894116&cc=11838535

No idea how he manages to be so consistently effective at getting to the heart of the issues de nos jours, wryly amusing (enough to smile over) every single day and still laugh-out-loud funny a couple of times a week. That sort of talent is gold-dust. I can't think of any other cartoonist - in fact, any kind of media commentator full stop - who reaches that kind of standard. Though I have a soft spot for Craig Brown.

(I get the feeling part of the reason I am so impressed is that his rival cartoonists in other papers are generally pretty poor, or take their personal politics too seriously.)

When this was pointed out previously, the Zoomers went into overdrive...

https://twitter.com/alanroden/status/648802907874291712

MyBurningEars said:

This Matt cartoon is a few days ago, but it's remarkably good even by his standards.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=11894116&cc=11838535

No idea how he manages to be so consistently effective at getting to the heart of the issues de nos jours, wryly amusing (enough to smile over) every single day and still laugh-out-loud funny a couple of times a week. That sort of talent is gold-dust. I can't think of any other cartoonist - in fact, any kind of media commentator full stop - who reaches that kind of standard. Though I have a soft spot for Craig Brown.

(I get the feeling part of the reason I am so impressed is that his rival cartoonists in other papers are generally pretty poor, or take their personal politics too seriously.)

Many years ago, I read an interview with Matt. One remark of his stuck in my mind: when he was at school, his teachers used to tell him he'd never get anywhere by sitting gazing out of the window .....

RobD said:

Moses_ said:

Guido
734 days since a Labour leader mentioned the deficit in their conference speech.

Remind me, how many days since the Tories last won a majority?

145

Floater said:

rcs1000 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Cyclefree said:

surbiton said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

I actually thought he was better than Miliband as Mili always seemed to be walking a tightrope between what he wanted to say and what he felt he ought to say to get elected. Corbyn didn't bother with the second at all so was more consistent.

I give him some credit as well for taking on the Saudis (although no mention of Wahhabism) and for making clear how the high cost of housing pushes up the benefits bill.

On the downside, there was a lot of waffle (you could easily cut 10 minutes out) and some areas such as the NHS hardly got a mention. I thought the defence section was unconvincing (retraining trident workers) as was foreign policy (making peace with ISIS). Wasn't there supposed to be something about loving Britain in there - if so I must have zoned out. Nothing in there for voters in Middle England.

He is the first British politician to criticise the Saudis openly.

About bloody time. But the Saudis, IS, Hezbollah, Hamas, Al Qaeda, Boko Haram, Al-Shabab, Muslim Brotherhood etc etc - they all drink from the same poisoned well. Criticise one, criticise all. Will Corbyn go that far or is he just doing the lefty version of "this group may be bastards but they're OUR bastards"?

"Israel may be bastards but they're OUR bastards"?

To be fair it was 1948 when the Israelis last attempted to blow up British soldiers or civilians. The others have more recent form.

Although the Israelis were the most recent country to destroy a US warship.

What more do they need to do to get Corbyn to like them?

Haha very good.

John_M said:

SouthamObserver said:

We've had Mike Bassett England Manager; now we have Jeremy Corbyn Labour Leader.

Corbyn is Eddie the Eagle.

Hopefully not; the nation took Eddie to their hearts for having a go. They completely overlooked that he was shite at what he was having a go at. Not a precedent for Prime Ministers, I hope....

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Moses_ said:

Guido
734 days since a Labour leader mentioned the deficit in their conference speech.

Remind me, how many days since the Tories last won a majority?

145

TSE has one of those "count-up" clocks on his bedroom wall...

Moses_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Moses_ said:

Guido
734 days since a Labour leader mentioned the deficit in their conference speech.

Remind me, how many days since the Tories last won a majority?

145

TSE has one of those "count-up" clocks on his bedroom wall...

I'm writing one of Sunday's threads now and I had worked out how many days since the election it would be on Sunday.

Scott_P said:

@BBCNewsnight: Peter Kellner: "His first obvious need is to get away from allegation he is an extremist...we'll see how successful he is." #newsnight

@michaelsavage: Not a good end to the day for Corbyn... https://t.co/JKw0P7ViQC

@PickardJE: Am told that Corbyn didn't mention the word "Israel" at Labour Friends of Israel reception.

Whoever is in charge of Labour FoI is either an idiot for inviting him or it was deliberate...

MP_SE said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNewsnight: Peter Kellner: "His first obvious need is to get away from allegation he is an extremist...we'll see how successful he is." #newsnight

@michaelsavage: Not a good end to the day for Corbyn... https://t.co/JKw0P7ViQC

@PickardJE: Am told that Corbyn didn't mention the word "Israel" at Labour Friends of Israel reception.

Whoever is in charge of Labour FoI is either an idiot for inviting him or it was deliberate...

Give Corbyn credit! I am pleasantly surprised that he showed at a Labour Friends of Israel event.

How his friends at Hamas must have encouraged him.