politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The shadow cabinet reshuffle is becoming interesting
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That's remarkably over-simplistic. There is a huge portion of Conservative 'interested in business' people as just one other group of In supporters.Speedy said:
Absolutely, the core support for IN is among the young and Labour voters whom they now look to Corbyn for spiritual guidance.viewcode said:
Sure about that?Speedy said:...without Corbyn's support Cameron would not be able to win his referendum...
According to the latest polls support for OUT is greater than 60% among over 60's and support for IN is greater than 70% among those under 30, if the young and the lefties swing from IN to OUT there is no group left to overwhelmingly support IN apart from the LD.
However overall the primary group of In is the risk-averse who will see Out as a jump too far. They are not going to be tempted to switch by Corbyn which is why Corbyn is neither that relevant to the EU Referendum nor will he win a General Election.
If the core support for In was the young and Labour then Out would be overwhelming favourites rather than outsiders.0 -
A marvellous afternoon: Foxy's Leicester City 3 Cameron's Villa 2. They were 2 nil up and threw it away. A lesson in complacency methinks.
I promised to report on the Villa banner. After their first goal a couple of Villa fans opened their #refugeeswelcome banner. No noticeable responce from our fans either way, but some of the Villa fans did not look happy with it and it was down within a minute. There is no place for political banners at football matches.
I see JC is a bit short of "friends" to form a shadow cabinet with. What a shambles!0 -
Well that depends who you mean by "they". Technically, within the HoC, 150-200 MPs could resign the whip, form themselves into a new group and still be HMLO.Dair said:
I wonder if it is not more likely that they will simply form a new party.AndyJS said:
If John McDonnell is appointed shadow chancellor I would fully expect to see either defections or resignations from the Commons. The latter would be more likely.felix said:Toby Perkins lab MP has tweeted that he expects defections to the Tories. Amazing that he says it.
If they aligned it with the SNP, they could focus on being an English party, devoted to Socialism.
English Socialism, has a certain ring to it.
The Corbyn faction will still be the legitimate "Labour Party". After all it got the votes and the CLP's will overwhelmingly back his group , at least, now.
What happens to Labour ? Well we couldn't have won the 2020 elections anyway unless the SNP imploded and the Liberals suddenly got a life.
But if a formal break happens then 2025 is also doubtful.
Could PLP Labour merge with the rump Liberals ? That could work in England and Wales but this way also the Tories would win big because the Corbynista Labour Party will still win 10-15% of the vote. The Tories won't need more than 35% to win big.
The PLP Labour-Liberal-EU Tory coalition will win the referendum hands down with business support.
Pile on Tom Watson ! You heard it here first.0 -
Yes we hope for one in five years, though we'll probably get one soonerRichard_Nabavi said:I've been rather busy with other things for the last few days, but I'd just like to check that politicalbetting.com has sent a formal note of thanks to the Labour Party not only for the entertainment of the last few months, but more importantly for the highly profitable betting opportunities. It would be impolite not to send a thank-you note.
Dare we hope for a another go in a couple of years' time?
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Err I called the election largely right, and well I made a profit on the Labour leadership contest.Estobar said:Hi TSE. You're a tory I think and you repeatedly said you thought Corbyn would lose: something to do with that you got it wrong at the general election? So that's a few bad calls
Any chance of kind of backing off on your sort of gloat stuff and maybe pausing to reflect? Maybe Corbyn's doing things a little different to how you like. We've spent 30 years of the MSM Blair machine that it's all a bit of a shock to some systems.0 -
I'm digging through the latest polls about the EU referendum, my assumption still stands, but most importantly Table 198 " If David Cameron led the campaign to stay in the EU would that make you more or less likely to vote Conservative, or would it have no impact on your vote?HYUFD said:
Yes, but Tory voters are in the middle so if Corbyn goes Out and Cameron is IN they could swing to staying insideSpeedy said:
Absolutely, the core support for IN is among the young and Labour voters whom they now look to Corbyn for spiritual guidance.viewcode said:
Sure about that?Speedy said:...without Corbyn's support Cameron would not be able to win his referendum...
According to the latest polls support for OUT is greater than 60% among over 60's and support for IN is greater than 70% among those under 30, if the young and the lefties swing from IN to OUT there is no group left to overwhelmingly support IN apart from the LD.
Base: Voted Conservative in 2015 General Election and intends to vote No in referendum"
Much Less Likely 10.3%
Somewhat Less Likely 22.9%
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Europoll-Tables-for-Release.pdf
And that was back in July.0 -
I see corbyn is also organising a London conference for all Europes anti austerity parties. What a way to convince the electorate you've learnt your lesson.0
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What makes the Tories "anti immigration"? We have had over 5 years of a Tory PM, and it is at record levels.chestnut said:
Pro EU - Pro Immigration: Lib DemsJonathan said:If Labour go anti EU, that's good news for the LDs who finally gain a raison d'etre.
Pro EU - Anti Immigration: Tories
Anti-EU - Pro Immigration: Labour
Anti EU - Anti Immigration: UKIP
Labour's would probably be the worst position of the lot.
If we can try to put aside the need to be seen to be right here, I can't imagine how if you tried to explain to an alien (!) that the Tories were "anti immigration", he or she would be able to understand that in the face of the evidence0 -
Depeche Mode!MTimT said:FPT AndyJS said:
"Yeah, as long as it features Scritti Politti, Five Star, Japan/David Sylvian, Dollar, and ABC."
Rip, Rig and Panic?0 -
There's an article along those lines in the pipeline.Richard_Nabavi said:I've been rather busy with other things for the last few days, but I'd just like to check that politicalbetting.com has sent a formal note of thanks to the Labour Party not only for the entertainment of the last few months, but more importantly for the highly profitable betting opportunities. It would be impolite not to send a thank-you note.
Dare we hope for a another go in a couple of years' time?
Headlined "betting in an ever more bat shit crazy world"0 -
Think a bloke called Reg Prentice defected in about 78. MP for Daventry? Think Mrs T made him minister for the disabled ( as it then was called ) in 79.kle4 said:
JC does bring unity after all.MTimT said:Just a comment on the threads of the past few days. With a few notable exceptions, without prior knowledge, I think it would be hard to tell just from the comments who is Tory, LD, UKIP, SNP and PLP. There seems to be a general incredulity to events.
I still cannot see defections happening. Unless attempts are made to mass deselect, certainly current politics seems to see switching between the big two are practically anathema, particularly from Lab to Con (has it ever happened) as arguments are about who is best and most loyal to the party, and it doesn't seem like the MP Corbynistas really beleive the likes of Hunt or Kendall belong in the Tories, and they wouldn't want to go there either. They won't go to the LDs while they have no pulse, UKIP are out for most, so any 'defections' would be to sit as an Ind, surely, in which case why bother when you can just be a serial rebel like JC?0 -
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....TheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
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Oh I thought you failed to predict a Conservative win from something you posted on here recently. And you posted several threads up saying you thought that on the same grounds that the polls were wrong before the GE they would be wrong about Corbyn. You thought there was a silent majority that pollsters and others missed when they believed the chattering social media class. In fact it was the latter that was spot on this time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Err I called the election largely right, and well I made a profit on the Labour leadership contest.Estobar said:Hi TSE. You're a tory I think and you repeatedly said you thought Corbyn would lose: something to do with that you got it wrong at the general election? So that's a few bad calls
Any chance of kind of backing off on your sort of gloat stuff and maybe pausing to reflect? Maybe Corbyn's doing things a little different to how you like. We've spent 30 years of the MSM Blair machine that it's all a bit of a shock to some systems.0 -
Perhaps it will just be the three of them. And JC. The New Gang of Four...TheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
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He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn won, Kendall and Cooper said they would not. Of 2001 Tory leadership candidates Davis and Ancram served IDS, Portillo and Clarke did notviewcode said:
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....TheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?0 -
A pleasant surprise from Shadsy today. I had forgotton that I had a quid on JC at 100/1. Best odds that I have ever won on, though I had nearly that on a couple of SNP gains in May. JC has put £400 in my pocket.Richard_Nabavi said:I've been rather busy with other things for the last few days, but I'd just like to check that politicalbetting.com has sent a formal note of thanks to the Labour Party not only for the entertainment of the last few months, but more importantly for the highly profitable betting opportunities. It would be impolite not to send a thank-you note.
Dare we hope for a another go in a couple of years' time?0 -
They are 90% of the PARLIAMENTARY Party. They are a minority of the Party as defined by its membership though. The membership that just voted 60% for Corbyn.alex. said:I wonder if tonight the PLP are suddenly beginning to realise how powerful they are. It's one thing to have no option but to support the leader (or at least keep pretty quiet on the backbenches) when potential rebels are a signficant minority at best (think IDS in 2001). But the potential rebels here are 90% OF THE PARTY. They can do what they want.
They should all resign from Labour and sit as independents.0 -
In the comments I said I expected Corbyn to still win.Estobar said:
Oh I thought you failed to predict a Conservative win from something you posted on here recently. And you posted several threads up saying you thought that on the same grounds that the polls were wrong before the GE they would be wrong about Corbyn. You thought there was a silent majority that pollsters and others missed when they believed the chattering social media class. In fact it was the latter that was spot on this time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Err I called the election largely right, and well I made a profit on the Labour leadership contest.Estobar said:Hi TSE. You're a tory I think and you repeatedly said you thought Corbyn would lose: something to do with that you got it wrong at the general election? So that's a few bad calls
Any chance of kind of backing off on your sort of gloat stuff and maybe pausing to reflect? Maybe Corbyn's doing things a little different to how you like. We've spent 30 years of the MSM Blair machine that it's all a bit of a shock to some systems.
On the election I was balls deep on Tory most seats, the SNP shellacking everyone in sight, UKIP getting screwed by FPTP
I was wrong on UKIP share of the vote and the stickiness of the Lib Dems and oh a hung parliament0 -
My first post on here since the day after general election day.
So the new leader of the Labour Party wants us out of the EU?? Maybe he isn't so bad after all.
Chukka's no loss. Sanctamonious, condescending twit. Can't imagine a situation in which he'd support withdrawal from Europe? That's called dogma, Chukka, the ability to deny reality.0 -
Mary Creagh @MaryCreaghMP 1m1 minute ago
Just spoken to @jeremycorbyn to congratulate him on becoming @UKLabour leader. I have decided to return to backbenches.....1/2
Unlike Andy The Party Comes First Burnham...0 -
Where everybody went wrong at the GE was to overestimate Labour support.Estobar said:Hi TSE. You're a tory I think and you repeatedly said you thought Corbyn would lose: something to do with that you got it wrong at the general election? So that's a few bad calls
Any chance of kind of backing off on your sort of gloat stuff and maybe pausing to reflect? Maybe Corbyn's doing things a little different to how you like. We've spent 30 years of the MSM Blair machine that it's all a bit of a shock to some systems.0 -
The youth vote is not sufficient on its own for "In" to win, but it is necessary.Philip_Thompson said:
That's remarkably over-simplistic. There is a huge portion of Conservative 'interested in business' people as just one other group of In supporters.Speedy said:
Absolutely, the core support for IN is among the young and Labour voters whom they now look to Corbyn for spiritual guidance.viewcode said:
Sure about that?Speedy said:...without Corbyn's support Cameron would not be able to win his referendum...
According to the latest polls support for OUT is greater than 60% among over 60's and support for IN is greater than 70% among those under 30, if the young and the lefties swing from IN to OUT there is no group left to overwhelmingly support IN apart from the LD.
However overall the primary group of In is the risk-averse who will see Out as a jump too far. They are not going to be tempted to switch by Corbyn which is why Corbyn is neither that relevant to the EU Referendum nor will he win a General Election.
If the core support for In was the young and Labour then Out would be overwhelming favourites rather than outsiders.0 -
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith
And another. Mary Creagh steps down from shadow cabinet. twitter.com/marycreaghmp/s…
Mary Creagh @MaryCreaghMP
Just spoken to @jeremycorbyn to congratulate him on becoming @UKLabour leader. I have decided to return to backbenches.....1/20 -
Wow you're a humble sort of a guy. But that's as much name calling as I'm doing. You carry on with the playground stuff.SeanT said:
The reaction of the political establishment is going to fuel the anti-establishment Corbyn agenda all the more. I think he's tapping into a groundswell against vested interests that has been building for a long time. The more people like Mandleson carry on fanning the flames, the more it's going to grow.0 -
"Any chance of kind of backing off on your sort of gloat stuff... "Estobar said:Hi TSE. You're a tory I think and you repeatedly said you thought Corbyn would lose: something to do with that you got it wrong at the general election? So that's a few bad calls
Any chance of kind of backing off on your sort of gloat stuff and maybe pausing to reflect? Maybe Corbyn's doing things a little different to how you like. We've spent 30 years of the MSM Blair machine that it's all a bit of a shock to some systems.
That would be a no0 -
Creagh out too.
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To be honest, I think an entirely vacant ShadCab would be more credible, not lessalex. said:
Of course Parliamentary business goes on. I mean he has to do it tonight so that Labour can credibly participate.viewcode said:
I don't think Parliament business is dependent on a Shadow Cabinet existing. Every post could be left vacant indefinitely and t'would not matter one jot.alex. said:
He has to do it tonight though! There's a full programme in Parliament next week,he can't be doing it tomorrow morning. Although i imagine a lot of MPs are getting ready to go to bed.kle4 said:A little chaos to be expected right at the start. He will have a team of some sort soon enough, and thenthe fun of seeing how the operate and how the party as a whole does will begin.
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Michael Howard became leader after serving as IDS' Shadow Chancellor, Davis a leadership contendor after serving as his Shadow Home Secretary.SeanT said:
Terrible error by Burnham.HYUFD said:
He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn wonviewcode said:
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....TheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
Corbyn is looking wobblier by the minute. Even if Jihadist Jez wants to stay until 2020 (and he does) I now reckon he will be gone by 2017 or before. Any MP who agrees to serve in his Shadow Cabinet will be hideously tainted. Tsk.
Next Labour majority? 2035.0 -
That's greedy. I'm hoping the Tory contest proves a surprisingly chaotic one.Richard_Nabavi said:I've been rather busy with other things for the last few days, but I'd just like to check that politicalbetting.com has sent a formal note of thanks to the Labour Party not only for the entertainment of the last few months, but more importantly for the highly profitable betting opportunities. It would be impolite not to send a thank-you note.
Dare we hope for another go in a couple of years' time?0 -
so inviting Golden Dawn but not Syriza then ?Razedabode said:I see corbyn is also organising a London conference for all Europes anti austerity parties. What a way to convince the electorate you've learnt your lesson.
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...and UKIP Seats!Sean_F said:
Where everybody went wrong at the GE was to overestimate Labour support.Estobar said:Hi TSE. You're a tory I think and you repeatedly said you thought Corbyn would lose: something to do with that you got it wrong at the general election? So that's a few bad calls
Any chance of kind of backing off on your sort of gloat stuff and maybe pausing to reflect? Maybe Corbyn's doing things a little different to how you like. We've spent 30 years of the MSM Blair machine that it's all a bit of a shock to some systems.0 -
"Reginald Ernest Prentice, Baron Prentice, PC (16 July 1923 – 18 January 2001[1]) was a British politician who held ministerial office in both Labour and Conservative Party governments. He was the most senior Labour figure ever to defect to the Conservative Party."welshowl said:
Think a bloke called Reg Prentice defected in about 78. MP for Daventry? Think Mrs T made him minister for the disabled ( as it then was called ) in 79.kle4 said:
JC does bring unity after all.MTimT said:Just a comment on the threads of the past few days. With a few notable exceptions, without prior knowledge, I think it would be hard to tell just from the comments who is Tory, LD, UKIP, SNP and PLP. There seems to be a general incredulity to events.
I still cannot see defections happening. Unless attempts are made to mass deselect, certainly current politics seems to see switching between the big two are practically anathema, particularly from Lab to Con (has it ever happened) as arguments are about who is best and most loyal to the party, and it doesn't seem like the MP Corbynistas really beleive the likes of Hunt or Kendall belong in the Tories, and they wouldn't want to go there either. They won't go to the LDs while they have no pulse, UKIP are out for most, so any 'defections' would be to sit as an Ind, surely, in which case why bother when you can just be a serial rebel like JC?0 -
I've been busy over the weekend, other stuff, real life, etc.Richard_Nabavi said:I've been rather busy with other things for the last few days, but I'd just like to check that politicalbetting.com has sent a formal note of thanks to the Labour Party not only for the entertainment of the last few months, but more importantly for the highly profitable betting opportunities. It would be impolite not to send a thank-you note.
Dare we hope for another go in a couple of years' time?
Did I miss anything while I've been away?0 -
Surely Burnham has no prospect of running again having been badly defeated again?SeanT said:
Terrible error by Burnham.HYUFD said:
He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn wonviewcode said:
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....TheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
Corbyn is looking wobblier by the minute. Even if Jihadist Jez wants to stay until 2020 (and he does) I now reckon he will be gone by 2017 or before. Any MP who agrees to serve in his Shadow Cabinet will be hideously tainted. Tsk.
Next Labour majority? 2035.0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz_DNrKVrQ8Plato_Says said:
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith
And another. Mary Creagh steps down from shadow cabinet. twitter.com/marycreaghmp/s…
Mary Creagh @MaryCreaghMP
Just spoken to @jeremycorbyn to congratulate him on becoming @UKLabour leader. I have decided to return to backbenches.....1/20 -
That was of Tory No voters, not Yes voters, the last poll had Tories split roughly 50-50 and Cameron will almost certainly lead the In campaignSpeedy said:
I'm digging through the latest polls about the EU referendum, my assumption still stands, but most importantly Table 198 " If David Cameron led the campaign to stay in the EU would that make you more or less likely to vote Conservative, or would it have no impact on your vote?HYUFD said:
Yes, but Tory voters are in the middle so if Corbyn goes Out and Cameron is IN they could swing to staying insideSpeedy said:
Absolutely, the core support for IN is among the young and Labour voters whom they now look to Corbyn for spiritual guidance.viewcode said:
Sure about that?Speedy said:...without Corbyn's support Cameron would not be able to win his referendum...
According to the latest polls support for OUT is greater than 60% among over 60's and support for IN is greater than 70% among those under 30, if the young and the lefties swing from IN to OUT there is no group left to overwhelmingly support IN apart from the LD.
Base: Voted Conservative in 2015 General Election and intends to vote No in referendum"
Much Less Likely 10.3%
Somewhat Less Likely 22.9%
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Europoll-Tables-for-Release.pdf
And that was back in July.0 -
Maybe Corybn has his **** in a box somewhere....viewcode said:
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....TheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?0 -
Assuming you are who I think you are then why should anyone be listening to what you have to say about the Labour party, Mr Thomas?SeanT said:
Terrible error by Burnham.HYUFD said:
He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn wonviewcode said:
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....TheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
Corbyn is looking wobblier by the minute. Even if Jihadist Jez wants to stay until 2020 (and he does) I now reckon he will be gone by 2017 or before. Any MP who agrees to serve in his Shadow Cabinet will be hideously tainted. Tsk.
Next Labour majority? 2035.
I think Andy's right to stick it. Remember everyone that Corbyn was swept in with 60% of the popular vote. Those now removing themselves are unlikely to be popular with rank and file. They're the old new labour guard who are getting expunged as Labour rediscovers its identity after the hideous Blair tory years.0 -
Well done! I was a bit late to the party - I don't usually bet on the unthinkable happening - but luckily I realised in late July that the unthinkable was indeed likely to happen. I stayed all-green but arranged my position to maximise my profit a Corbyn win. My only real disappointment was that I had side bet on Yvette coming second; that would probably have been a winner if Corbyn hadn't won on the first round.foxinsoxuk said:
A pleasant surprise from Shadsy today. I had forgotton that I had a quid on JC at 100/1. Best odds that I have ever won on, though I had nearly that on a couple of SNP gains in May. JC has put £400 in my pocket.Richard_Nabavi said:I've been rather busy with other things for the last few days, but I'd just like to check that politicalbetting.com has sent a formal note of thanks to the Labour Party not only for the entertainment of the last few months, but more importantly for the highly profitable betting opportunities. It would be impolite not to send a thank-you note.
Dare we hope for a another go in a couple of years' time?
Oh, and Sadiq as well. Kudos to HenryG for flagging that one up early on.0 -
Yes - the two who everyone forgets when naming the cast, well Brad Dexter anyway (he was quite the established star at the time). But he would have struggled in the sequel since his character was one of the 4 that did not survive. At least Bucholz got the girl.chestnut said:
It's like hearing that Brad Dexter and Horst Bucholz are sticking round to star in the sequel to the Magnificent SevenTheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
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It was my birthday yesterdayTOPPING said:
I've been busy over the weekend, other stuff, real life, etc.Richard_Nabavi said:I've been rather busy with other things for the last few days, but I'd just like to check that politicalbetting.com has sent a formal note of thanks to the Labour Party not only for the entertainment of the last few months, but more importantly for the highly profitable betting opportunities. It would be impolite not to send a thank-you note.
Dare we hope for another go in a couple of years' time?
Did I miss anything while I've been away?0 -
Who would believe this wouldn't go smoothly0
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There's no absolute rule that says that the LOTO has to be the national, as opposed to parliamentary, leader of the second largest party. If SNP were the second largest party it wouldn't be. It would be a bit unusual when the leader was also an MP, but the MPs could offer up someone different, i think?MarqueeMark said:
They are 90% of the PARLIAMENTARY Party. They are a minority of the Party as defined by its membership though. The membership that just voted 60% for Corbyn.alex. said:I wonder if tonight the PLP are suddenly beginning to realise how powerful they are. It's one thing to have no option but to support the leader (or at least keep pretty quiet on the backbenches) when potential rebels are a signficant minority at best (think IDS in 2001). But the potential rebels here are 90% OF THE PARTY. They can do what they want.
They should all resign from Labour and sit as independents.0 -
I don't agree whatsoever. The youth vote in a referendum could be key if it is close but it is probably inconsequential. Turnout in the youth vote is notoriously low (as well as being demographically low).Danny565 said:
The youth vote is not sufficient on its own for "In" to win, but it is necessary.Philip_Thompson said:
That's remarkably over-simplistic. There is a huge portion of Conservative 'interested in business' people as just one other group of In supporters.Speedy said:
Absolutely, the core support for IN is among the young and Labour voters whom they now look to Corbyn for spiritual guidance.viewcode said:
Sure about that?Speedy said:...without Corbyn's support Cameron would not be able to win his referendum...
According to the latest polls support for OUT is greater than 60% among over 60's and support for IN is greater than 70% among those under 30, if the young and the lefties swing from IN to OUT there is no group left to overwhelmingly support IN apart from the LD.
However overall the primary group of In is the risk-averse who will see Out as a jump too far. They are not going to be tempted to switch by Corbyn which is why Corbyn is neither that relevant to the EU Referendum nor will he win a General Election.
If the core support for In was the young and Labour then Out would be overwhelming favourites rather than outsiders.
For In to win it is necessary to appear to be the low risk (versus the risky Out) option. For the mature sensible option to be to Remain in Europe, while leaving will be a risky and divisive move. Having Corbyn join the ranks of Out while moderate Labourites are saying In could help more than hurt the In campaign.0 -
"Assuming you are who i think you are"?Estobar said:
Assuming you are who I think you are then why should anyone be listening to what you have to say about the Labour party, Mr Thomas?SeanT said:
Terrible error by Burnham.HYUFD said:
He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn wonviewcode said:
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....TheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
Corbyn is looking wobblier by the minute. Even if Jihadist Jez wants to stay until 2020 (and he does) I now reckon he will be gone by 2017 or before. Any MP who agrees to serve in his Shadow Cabinet will be hideously tainted. Tsk.
Next Labour majority? 2035.
I think Andy's right to stick it. Remember everyone that Corbyn was swept in with 60% of the popular vote. Those now removing themselves are unlikely to be popular with rank and file. They're the old new labour guard who are getting expunged as Labour rediscovers its identity after the hideous Blair tory years.
We all know who Sean is, it's not a secret!0 -
Get any nice presents?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was my birthday yesterdayTOPPING said:
I've been busy over the weekend, other stuff, real life, etc.Richard_Nabavi said:I've been rather busy with other things for the last few days, but I'd just like to check that politicalbetting.com has sent a formal note of thanks to the Labour Party not only for the entertainment of the last few months, but more importantly for the highly profitable betting opportunities. It would be impolite not to send a thank-you note.
Dare we hope for another go in a couple of years' time?
Did I miss anything while I've been away?0 -
'Should'? From what perspective? Parliamentary tradition? What's good for the country? What's good for Labour in the medium-term? What's good for them personally?MarqueeMark said:
They are 90% of the PARLIAMENTARY Party. They are a minority of the Party as defined by its membership though. The membership that just voted 60% for Corbyn.alex. said:I wonder if tonight the PLP are suddenly beginning to realise how powerful they are. It's one thing to have no option but to support the leader (or at least keep pretty quiet on the backbenches) when potential rebels are a signficant minority at best (think IDS in 2001). But the potential rebels here are 90% OF THE PARTY. They can do what they want.
They should all resign from Labour and sit as independents.
I think the answer is 'Yes' only to one of those. No prizes for guessing which.0 -
But she kinda said that weeks ago. Only yesterday went through the formalities of speaking to "Jeremy first".GIN1138 said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz_DNrKVrQ8Plato_Says said:
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith
And another. Mary Creagh steps down from shadow cabinet. twitter.com/marycreaghmp/s…
Mary Creagh @MaryCreaghMP
Just spoken to @jeremycorbyn to congratulate him on becoming @UKLabour leader. I have decided to return to backbenches.....1/2
All this could have been averted if Harriet did not call for an abstention on the Welfare Cuts bill. That incensed the rank and file and gave Jeremy legs.
A coup could be on.0 -
According to Sky, John McDonnell is saying that the shadow cabinet will be a broad church, and it is hoped to have it in place by 6pm tomorrow0
-
A helicopterPhilip_Thompson said:
Get any nice presents?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was my birthday yesterdayTOPPING said:
I've been busy over the weekend, other stuff, real life, etc.Richard_Nabavi said:I've been rather busy with other things for the last few days, but I'd just like to check that politicalbetting.com has sent a formal note of thanks to the Labour Party not only for the entertainment of the last few months, but more importantly for the highly profitable betting opportunities. It would be impolite not to send a thank-you note.
Dare we hope for another go in a couple of years' time?
Did I miss anything while I've been away?0 -
The "rank and file" has gone utterly mad. Leading Labour MP's are quite right to remove themselves from the car crash.Estobar said:
Assuming you are who I think you are then why should anyone be listening to what you have to say about the Labour party, Mr Thomas?SeanT said:
Terrible error by Burnham.HYUFD said:
He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn wonviewcode said:
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....TheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
Corbyn is looking wobblier by the minute. Even if Jihadist Jez wants to stay until 2020 (and he does) I now reckon he will be gone by 2017 or before. Any MP who agrees to serve in his Shadow Cabinet will be hideously tainted. Tsk.
Next Labour majority? 2035.
I think Andy's right to stick it. Remember everyone that Corbyn was swept in with 60% of the popular vote. Those now removing themselves are unlikely to be popular with rank and file. They're the old new labour guard who are getting expunged as Labour rediscovers its identity after the hideous Blair tory years.0 -
It is though, you are forgetting that pro-EU businessmen are few in numbers probably around 10 thousand, that's a drop in the bucket.Philip_Thompson said:
That's remarkably over-simplistic. There is a huge portion of Conservative 'interested in business' people as just one other group of In supporters.Speedy said:
Absolutely, the core support for IN is among the young and Labour voters whom they now look to Corbyn for spiritual guidance.viewcode said:
Sure about that?Speedy said:...without Corbyn's support Cameron would not be able to win his referendum...
According to the latest polls support for OUT is greater than 60% among over 60's and support for IN is greater than 70% among those under 30, if the young and the lefties swing from IN to OUT there is no group left to overwhelmingly support IN apart from the LD.
However overall the primary group of In is the risk-averse who will see Out as a jump too far. They are not going to be tempted to switch by Corbyn which is why Corbyn is neither that relevant to the EU Referendum nor will he win a General Election.
If the core support for In was the young and Labour then Out would be overwhelming favourites rather than outsiders.
The proportion of those who wish to remain in the EU and voted Labour last time is 1/3 rd of the total and the largest block for IN from a political party, and from those under 35 the share is 37% of the IN vote, predominantly Corbyn voters.
Even geographically the IN voters predominantly come from Corbyn areas like London, the North, and Scotland.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Final-MoS-September-Tables-1c0d0h4.pdf
Corbyn's ace card against Cameron is that he can sway his block from IN to OUT if he wishes.0 -
So that's a lot of No Thankyous by the looks of it.JohnLilburne said:
According to Sky, John McDonnell is saying that the shadow cabinet will be a broad church, and it is hoped to have it in place by 6pm tomorrow
0 -
The anti-establishment stuff only takes you so far. If he gets a lot of non-voters to turn out, and can ensure they all vote Labour, he still needs to not put off enough current Labour supporters in key areas if he is to win, it doesn't matter how anti-establishment he is. Labour increased their vote share this time but lost seats, principally due to Scotland but they also lost seats elsewhere.Estobar said:
Wow you're a humble sort of a guy. But that's as much name calling as I'm doing. You carry on with the playground stuff.SeanT said:
The reaction of the political establishment is going to fuel the anti-establishment Corbyn agenda all the more. I think he's tapping into a groundswell against vested interests that has been building for a long time. The more people like Mandleson carry on fanning the flames, the more it's going to grow.
Corbyn needs to fire up the base - done - attract new support - done - and target them in the right areas without losing people in those areas. Retaining the first two is not assured, but is possible, but it is the third that is trickiest. As a thread showed earlier, the Tories increased their vote share where it really mattered, Labour need to do the same, and appearing a chaotic mess will not appeal to people in Swindon and Nuneaton.
Yes, Tories are feeling like it is safe to gloat right now, there is the possibility that Corbyns strategy could work, but you are displaying similar arrogant dismissal but not acknowledging just how risky it is, it is an all or nothing game. Fair enough if that is how Labour want to play it, but people march in the streets in thousands sometimes, and it doesn't mean a damn thing when it comes to gaining masses of parliamentary seats, nor even does increasing your vote by millions - UKIP could tell you that, and the SNP's situation is not replicable for Labour - and no-one is suggesting he will increase it by that much.0 -
Happy Birthday. Such a coincidence that all our christmases came also.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was my birthday yesterdayTOPPING said:
I've been busy over the weekend, other stuff, real life, etc.Richard_Nabavi said:I've been rather busy with other things for the last few days, but I'd just like to check that politicalbetting.com has sent a formal note of thanks to the Labour Party not only for the entertainment of the last few months, but more importantly for the highly profitable betting opportunities. It would be impolite not to send a thank-you note.
Dare we hope for another go in a couple of years' time?
Did I miss anything while I've been away?0 -
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Andy Burnham shadow Home, Hilary Benn Shadow Foreign0 -
It was not a great result for him but he was runner-up this time, 4th in 2010. Michael Howard succeeded IDS after being his Shadow Chancellor so one of the holders of the key portfolios could be Corbyn's successor if polls fail to turn, an outright Corbyn opponent is likely to be too divisive to take over before a 2020 election (they would have to wait for a defeat)GarethoftheVale2 said:
Surely Burnham has no prospect of running again having been badly defeated again?SeanT said:
Terrible error by Burnham.HYUFD said:
He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn wonviewcode said:
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....TheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
Corbyn is looking wobblier by the minute. Even if Jihadist Jez wants to stay until 2020 (and he does) I now reckon he will be gone by 2017 or before. Any MP who agrees to serve in his Shadow Cabinet will be hideously tainted. Tsk.
Next Labour majority? 2035.0 -
Its a broad church in that currently anyone who wants a job has one.JohnLilburne said:According to Sky, John McDonnell is saying that the shadow cabinet will be a broad church, and it is hoped to have it in place by 6pm tomorrow
0 -
'We all know' makes it sounds very cliquey. As a newcomer to this right-wing cabal give me a chance to catch up.alex. said:
"Assuming you are who i think you are"?Estobar said:
Assuming you are who I think you are then why should anyone be listening to what you have to say about the Labour party, Mr Thomas?SeanT said:
Terrible error by Burnham.HYUFD said:
He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn wonviewcode said:
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....TheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
Corbyn is looking wobblier by the minute. Even if Jihadist Jez wants to stay until 2020 (and he does) I now reckon he will be gone by 2017 or before. Any MP who agrees to serve in his Shadow Cabinet will be hideously tainted. Tsk.
Next Labour majority? 2035.
I think Andy's right to stick it. Remember everyone that Corbyn was swept in with 60% of the popular vote. Those now removing themselves are unlikely to be popular with rank and file. They're the old new labour guard who are getting expunged as Labour rediscovers its identity after the hideous Blair tory years.
We all know who Sean is, it's not a secret!
Now re. Andy Burnham I don't agree. The ones who will establish themselves for the future of the Labour party are those who don't throw their toys out the pram but show they can work with those whose opinions may not 'always' coincide with their own.
Fun time. I'll leave Thomas to crow from his Primrose Hill house, whilst the rest of us continue this process of changing Britain's political discourse.0 -
I have to say, Estobar is a wonderfully entertaining addition to PB. reminds me a little of the long departed ben_Malex. said:
"Assuming you are who i think you are"?Estobar said:
Assuming you are who I think you are then why should anyone be listening to what you have to say about the Labour party, Mr Thomas?SeanT said:
Terrible error by Burnham.HYUFD said:
He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn wonviewcode said:
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....TheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
Corbyn is looking wobblier by the minute. Even if Jihadist Jez wants to stay until 2020 (and he does) I now reckon he will be gone by 2017 or before. Any MP who agrees to serve in his Shadow Cabinet will be hideously tainted. Tsk.
Next Labour majority? 2035.
I think Andy's right to stick it. Remember everyone that Corbyn was swept in with 60% of the popular vote. Those now removing themselves are unlikely to be popular with rank and file. They're the old new labour guard who are getting expunged as Labour rediscovers its identity after the hideous Blair tory years.
We all know who Sean is, it's not a secret!0 -
Suddenly, Corbyn becomes the OUT champion ? JC - I mean Jesus Christ !Philip_Thompson said:
I don't agree whatsoever. The youth vote in a referendum could be key if it is close but it is probably inconsequential. Turnout in the youth vote is notoriously low (as well as being demographically low).Danny565 said:
The youth vote is not sufficient on its own for "In" to win, but it is necessary.Philip_Thompson said:
That's remarkably over-simplistic. There is a huge portion of Conservative 'interested in business' people as just one other group of In supporters.Speedy said:
Absolutely, the core support for IN is among the young and Labour voters whom they now look to Corbyn for spiritual guidance.viewcode said:
Sure about that?Speedy said:...without Corbyn's support Cameron would not be able to win his referendum...
According to the latest polls support for OUT is greater than 60% among over 60's and support for IN is greater than 70% among those under 30, if the young and the lefties swing from IN to OUT there is no group left to overwhelmingly support IN apart from the LD.
However overall the primary group of In is the risk-averse who will see Out as a jump too far. They are not going to be tempted to switch by Corbyn which is why Corbyn is neither that relevant to the EU Referendum nor will he win a General Election.
If the core support for In was the young and Labour then Out would be overwhelming favourites rather than outsiders.
For In to win it is necessary to appear to be the low risk (versus the risky Out) option. For the mature sensible option to be to Remain in Europe, while leaving will be a risky and divisive move. Having Corbyn join the ranks of Out while moderate Labourites are saying In could help more than hurt the In campaign.0 -
As if Burnham wasn't already hideously tainted by Mid Staffs and two absolutely appalling Leadership campaigns?SeanT said:
Terrible error by Burnham.HYUFD said:
He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn wonviewcode said:
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....TheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
Corbyn is looking wobblier by the minute. Even if Jihadist Jez wants to stay until 2020 (and he does) I now reckon he will be gone by 2017 or before. Any MP who agrees to serve in his Shadow Cabinet will be hideously tainted. Tsk.
Next Labour majority? 2035.0 -
Benn is shadow foreign sec - Lolza.
Burnam shad home.
Laura K tweets.0 -
Nevertheless, Labour seems to be in crisis tonight - That's the narrative - And get used to it because Labour will be in perpetual crisis every day Corbyn is LOTO.surbiton said:
But she kinda said that weeks ago. Only yesterday went through the formalities of speaking to "Jeremy first".GIN1138 said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wz_DNrKVrQ8Plato_Says said:
Ben Riley-Smith @benrileysmith
And another. Mary Creagh steps down from shadow cabinet. twitter.com/marycreaghmp/s…
Mary Creagh @MaryCreaghMP
Just spoken to @jeremycorbyn to congratulate him on becoming @UKLabour leader. I have decided to return to backbenches.....1/20 -
Two outstanding appointments. We need some women in there and ethnic minorities too.Plato_Says said:Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Andy Burnham shadow Home, Hilary Benn Shadow Foreign
0 -
Sounds as if tomorrow is going to be spent attempting to use the constituency parties and Union funders in the country to blackmail their MPs into taking up posts...Plato_Says said:So that's a lot of No Thankyous by the looks of it.
JohnLilburne said:According to Sky, John McDonnell is saying that the shadow cabinet will be a broad church, and it is hoped to have it in place by 6pm tomorrow
0 -
Broadmoor rather than broad church.Slackbladder said:
Its a broad church in that currently anyone who wants a job has one.JohnLilburne said:According to Sky, John McDonnell is saying that the shadow cabinet will be a broad church, and it is hoped to have it in place by 6pm tomorrow
0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-aSNWYUJjYJohnLilburne said:According to Sky, John McDonnell is saying that the shadow cabinet will be a broad church, and it is hoped to have it in place by 6pm tomorrow
0 -
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Shadow Health, Heidi Alexander, Lord Falconer, Shadow Justice Secreatry0 -
I thought you'd be off playing with your chopper instead of moderating/TheScreamingEagles said:
A helicopterPhilip_Thompson said:
Get any nice presents?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was my birthday yesterdayTOPPING said:
I've been busy over the weekend, other stuff, real life, etc.Richard_Nabavi said:I've been rather busy with other things for the last few days, but I'd just like to check that politicalbetting.com has sent a formal note of thanks to the Labour Party not only for the entertainment of the last few months, but more importantly for the highly profitable betting opportunities. It would be impolite not to send a thank-you note.
Dare we hope for another go in a couple of years' time?
Did I miss anything while I've been away?0 -
@gabyhinsliff: We might be able to do this quicker if anyone who *does* want to serve in shadow cabinet just puts out a statement saying so.0
-
Kle4: good post. Lots of real sense there.
I'm off out but these are interesting times. The tree's being shaken.0 -
A more recent example is John Marek, who went from Labour -> Wales Forward -> Conservative.welshowl said:
Think a bloke called Reg Prentice defected in about 78. MP for Daventry? Think Mrs T made him minister for the disabled ( as it then was called ) in 79.
It seems to me that deselections are inevitable, as the PLP does not reflect the membership.
In that circumstance, I think we will see some defections, at least to Independent Labour.
0 -
The Shadow Cabinet "flouncers" are bad losers, plain and simple!Plato_Says said:So that's a lot of No Thankyous by the looks of it.
JohnLilburne said:According to Sky, John McDonnell is saying that the shadow cabinet will be a broad church, and it is hoped to have it in place by 6pm tomorrow
Sore-Loserman!0 -
Should I say, as I predicted. So is it Angela Eagle or John McDonnell ? In one way, if Corbyn dumps McDonnell, then he could be accused on turning native in one day. I doubt if he will though. Whether he should or not is another matter.Plato_Says said:Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Andy Burnham shadow Home, Hilary Benn Shadow Foreign0 -
He's our best selling author and travel writer, who the Fuck are you?Estobar said:
Assuming you are who I think you are then why should anyone be listening to what you have to say about the Labour party, Mr Thomas?SeanT said:
Terrible error by Burnham.HYUFD said:
He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn wonviewcode said:
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....TheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
Corbyn is looking wobblier by the minute. Even if Jihadist Jez wants to stay until 2020 (and he does) I now reckon he will be gone by 2017 or before. Any MP who agrees to serve in his Shadow Cabinet will be hideously tainted. Tsk.
Next Labour majority? 2035.
.0 -
Must go for a UK wide name such as British Socialists or even National Socialists.saddened said:
Socialists, joining up with nationalists, if only there was a snappy name for it that could be goer.Dair said:
I wonder if it is not more likely that they will simply form a new party.AndyJS said:
If John McDonnell is appointed shadow chancellor I would fully expect to see either defections or resignations from the Commons. The latter would be more likely.felix said:Toby Perkins lab MP has tweeted that he expects defections to the Tories. Amazing that he says it.
If they aligned it with the SNP, they could focus on being an English party, devoted to Socialism.
English Socialism, has a certain ring to it.
0 -
Even Ben M thinks Corybns a disaster.MTimT said:
I have to say, Estobar is a wonderfully entertaining addition to PB. reminds me a little of the long departed ben_Malex. said:
"Assuming you are who i think you are"?Estobar said:
Assuming you are who I think you are then why should anyone be listening to what you have to say about the Labour party, Mr Thomas?SeanT said:
Terrible error by Burnham.HYUFD said:
He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn wonviewcode said:
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....TheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
Corbyn is looking wobblier by the minute. Even if Jihadist Jez wants to stay until 2020 (and he does) I now reckon he will be gone by 2017 or before. Any MP who agrees to serve in his Shadow Cabinet will be hideously tainted. Tsk.
Next Labour majority? 2035.
I think Andy's right to stick it. Remember everyone that Corbyn was swept in with 60% of the popular vote. Those now removing themselves are unlikely to be popular with rank and file. They're the old new labour guard who are getting expunged as Labour rediscovers its identity after the hideous Blair tory years.
We all know who Sean is, it's not a secret!0 -
Agreed and they will soon be forgotten.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The Shadow Cabinet "flouncers" are bad losers, plain and simple!Plato_Says said:So that's a lot of No Thankyous by the looks of it.
JohnLilburne said:According to Sky, John McDonnell is saying that the shadow cabinet will be a broad church, and it is hoped to have it in place by 6pm tomorrow
Sore-Loserman!0 -
I gave up moderating you lot two years ago. Much more fun to post and write thread headers.Alanbrooke said:
I thought you'd be off playing with your chopper instead of moderating/TheScreamingEagles said:
A helicopterPhilip_Thompson said:
Get any nice presents?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was my birthday yesterdayTOPPING said:
I've been busy over the weekend, other stuff, real life, etc.Richard_Nabavi said:I've been rather busy with other things for the last few days, but I'd just like to check that politicalbetting.com has sent a formal note of thanks to the Labour Party not only for the entertainment of the last few months, but more importantly for the highly profitable betting opportunities. It would be impolite not to send a thank-you note.
Dare we hope for another go in a couple of years' time?
Did I miss anything while I've been away?
In something that is no way symbolic for my age, the power on my chopper has expired and needs a long time to charge up0 -
Am I really dense to not be understanding this?!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sore-Loserman!0 -
Cheerful Charlie returns!Plato_Says said:Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Shadow Health, Heidi Alexander, Lord Falconer, Shadow Justice Secreatry
I wonder what Blair and Mandy thinks to that...0 -
Why, thank youMTimT said:
I have to say, Estobar is a wonderfully entertaining addition to PB. reminds me a little of the long departed ben_Malex. said:
"Assuming you are who i think you are"?Estobar said:
Assuming you are who I think you are then why should anyone be listening to what you have to say about the Labour party, Mr Thomas?SeanT said:
Terrible error by Burnham.HYUFD said:
He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn wonviewcode said:
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....TheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
Corbyn is looking wobblier by the minute. Even if Jihadist Jez wants to stay until 2020 (and he does) I now reckon he will be gone by 2017 or before. Any MP who agrees to serve in his Shadow Cabinet will be hideously tainted. Tsk.
Next Labour majority? 2035.
I think Andy's right to stick it. Remember everyone that Corbyn was swept in with 60% of the popular vote. Those now removing themselves are unlikely to be popular with rank and file. They're the old new labour guard who are getting expunged as Labour rediscovers its identity after the hideous Blair tory years.
We all know who Sean is, it's not a secret!
And on that note I must go. Ciao.0 -
This is the kind of BS argument that leads to the false conclusion that Conservatives can never win an election as business people are a small number.Speedy said:
It is though, you are forgetting that pro-EU businessmen are few in numbers probably around 10 thousand, that's a drop in the bucket.Philip_Thompson said:
That's remarkably over-simplistic. There is a huge portion of Conservative 'interested in business' people as just one other group of In supporters.Speedy said:
Absolutely, the core support for IN is among the young and Labour voters whom they now look to Corbyn for spiritual guidance.viewcode said:
Sure about that?Speedy said:...without Corbyn's support Cameron would not be able to win his referendum...
According to the latest polls support for OUT is greater than 60% among over 60's and support for IN is greater than 70% among those under 30, if the young and the lefties swing from IN to OUT there is no group left to overwhelmingly support IN apart from the LD.
However overall the primary group of In is the risk-averse who will see Out as a jump too far. They are not going to be tempted to switch by Corbyn which is why Corbyn is neither that relevant to the EU Referendum nor will he win a General Election.
If the core support for In was the young and Labour then Out would be overwhelming favourites rather than outsiders.
The proportion of those who wish to remain in the EU and voted Labour last time is 1/3 rd of the total and the largest block for IN from a political party, and from those under 35 the share is 37% of the IN vote, predominantly Corbyn voters.
Even geographically the IN voters predominantly come from Corbyn areas like London, the North, and Scotland.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Final-MoS-September-Tables-1c0d0h4.pdf
Corbyn's ace card against Cameron is that he can sway his block from IN to OUT if he wishes.
That may be true, but people who rely on having sustainable jobs are a massive number. The reason business leaders for Conservatives works as a voting issue isn't because of the (relatively small number of) business leaders alone but because people think its risky for their employment and their career.
The number one card that Remain in the EU has is employment. The number one card Leave the EU has is migration. Youth vote is pretty inconsequential to the main debate - as will be Corbyn.0 -
The problem for Corbyn is that the correct way to decide a cabinet is sitting down with a glass of wine in front of him.
Being a teetotaller, this is a problem.
0 -
But pro-EU businessmen (and women) can remind their employees where their wages come from. Something rather similar happened in Scotland I seem to recall.Speedy said:
It is though, you are forgetting that pro-EU businessmen are few in numbers probably around 10 thousand, that's a drop in the bucket.Philip_Thompson said:
That's remarkably over-simplistic. There is a huge portion of Conservative 'interested in business' people as just one other group of In supporters.Speedy said:
Absolutely, the core support for IN is among the young and Labour voters whom they now look to Corbyn for spiritual guidance.viewcode said:
Sure about that?Speedy said:...without Corbyn's support Cameron would not be able to win his referendum...
According to the latest polls support for OUT is greater than 60% among over 60's and support for IN is greater than 70% among those under 30, if the young and the lefties swing from IN to OUT there is no group left to overwhelmingly support IN apart from the LD.
However overall the primary group of In is the risk-averse who will see Out as a jump too far. They are not going to be tempted to switch by Corbyn which is why Corbyn is neither that relevant to the EU Referendum nor will he win a General Election.
If the core support for In was the young and Labour then Out would be overwhelming favourites rather than outsiders.
The proportion of those who wish to remain in the EU and voted Labour last time is 1/3 rd of the total and the largest block for IN from a political party, and from those under 35 the share is 37% of the IN vote, predominantly Corbyn voters.
Even geographically the IN voters predominantly come from Corbyn areas like London, the North, and Scotland.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Final-MoS-September-Tables-1c0d0h4.pdf
Corbyn's ace card against Cameron is that he can sway his block from IN to OUT if he wishes.0 -
how could you not enjoy a poster whose name is an anagram of Arsebot ?MTimT said:
I have to say, Estobar is a wonderfully entertaining addition to PB. reminds me a little of the long departed ben_Malex. said:
"Assuming you are who i think you are"?Estobar said:
Assuming you are who I think you are then why should anyone be listening to what you have to say about the Labour party, Mr Thomas?SeanT said:
Terrible error by Burnham.HYUFD said:
He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn wonviewcode said:
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....TheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
Corbyn is looking wobblier by the minute. Even if Jihadist Jez wants to stay until 2020 (and he does) I now reckon he will be gone by 2017 or before. Any MP who agrees to serve in his Shadow Cabinet will be hideously tainted. Tsk.
Next Labour majority? 2035.
I think Andy's right to stick it. Remember everyone that Corbyn was swept in with 60% of the popular vote. Those now removing themselves are unlikely to be popular with rank and file. They're the old new labour guard who are getting expunged as Labour rediscovers its identity after the hideous Blair tory years.
We all know who Sean is, it's not a secret!0 -
This is why I was praying for him to win. But being shackled to a corpse is perhaps the next best thing.Philip_Thompson said:
As if Burnham wasn't already hideously tainted by Mid Staffs and two absolutely appalling Leadership campaigns?SeanT said:
Terrible error by Burnham.HYUFD said:
He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn wonviewcode said:
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....TheScreamingEagles said:@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
Corbyn is looking wobblier by the minute. Even if Jihadist Jez wants to stay until 2020 (and he does) I now reckon he will be gone by 2017 or before. Any MP who agrees to serve in his Shadow Cabinet will be hideously tainted. Tsk.
Next Labour majority? 2035.
...or do I mean having the corpse shacked to him?0 -
The arch Blairite as Shadow Justice Secretary. That could calm down the hysteria.Plato_Says said:Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Shadow Health, Heidi Alexander, Lord Falconer, Shadow Justice Secreatry0 -
We want McDonnel !
Suspect it will be Eagle.0 -
So Corbyn is having to fill front line cabinet roles from the House of Lords.0
-
The Staggers @TheStaggers 2m2 minutes ago
Confirmed: Burnham becomes shadow home secretary and Hilary Benn remains shadow foreign secretary. http://bit.ly/1KLU7AI0 -
Announcing Shadow Health Sec before Shadow Chancellor. Er right...0
-
He's not an arch Blairite. He backed Burnham.surbiton said:
The arch Blairite as Shadow Justice Secretary. That could calm down the hysteria.Plato_Says said:Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Shadow Health, Heidi Alexander, Lord Falconer, Shadow Justice Secreatry0 -
Non-alcoholic beer!MarkHopkins said:
The problem for Corbyn is that the correct way to decide a cabinet is sitting down with a glass of wine in front of him.
Being a teetotaller, this is a problem.0 -
The youth vote is 37% of IN voters by far the largest demographic block, it's a nice theory that you don't need them but since it's the only group that supports in it's majority IN, then you can't afford to lose them.Philip_Thompson said:
This is the kind of BS argument that leads to the false conclusion that Conservatives can never win an election as business people are a small number.Speedy said:
It is though, you are forgetting that pro-EU businessmen are few in numbers probably around 10 thousand, that's a drop in the bucket.Philip_Thompson said:
That's remarkably over-simplistic. There is a huge portion of Conservative 'interested in business' people as just one other group of In supporters.Speedy said:
Absolutely, the core support for IN is among the young and Labour voters whom they now look to Corbyn for spiritual guidance.viewcode said:
Sure about that?Speedy said:...without Corbyn's support Cameron would not be able to win his referendum...
According to the latest polls support for OUT is greater than 60% among over 60's and support for IN is greater than 70% among those under 30, if the young and the lefties swing from IN to OUT there is no group left to overwhelmingly support IN apart from the LD.
However overall the primary group of In is the risk-averse who will see Out as a jump too far. They are not going to be tempted to switch by Corbyn which is why Corbyn is neither that relevant to the EU Referendum nor will he win a General Election.
If the core support for In was the young and Labour then Out would be overwhelming favourites rather than outsiders.
The proportion of those who wish to remain in the EU and voted Labour last time is 1/3 rd of the total and the largest block for IN from a political party, and from those under 35 the share is 37% of the IN vote, predominantly Corbyn voters.
Even geographically the IN voters predominantly come from Corbyn areas like London, the North, and Scotland.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Final-MoS-September-Tables-1c0d0h4.pdf
Corbyn's ace card against Cameron is that he can sway his block from IN to OUT if he wishes.
That may be true, but people who rely on having sustainable jobs are a massive number. The reason business leaders for Conservatives works as a voting issue isn't because of the (relatively small number of) business leaders alone but because people think its risky for their employment and their career.
The number one card that Remain in the EU has is employment. The number one card Leave the EU has is migration. Youth vote is pretty inconsequential to the main debate - as will be Corbyn.0
