If Corbyn is toppled I would now make Benn favourite to succeed him as leader before 2020. He is moderate enough to appeal to Blairites and Brownites, while also serving Corbyn in his Shadow Cabinet as Shadow Foreign Secretary and an experienced hand who was a Cabinet Minister too, his last name would also mean he would automatically get the left back on board after any coup. So Hilary Benn to be Labour's Michael Howard in 2017/18 if the polls fail to lift? You heard it here first
...without Corbyn's support Cameron would not be able to win his referendum...
Sure about that?
Absolutely, the core support for IN is among the young and Labour voters whom they now look to Corbyn for spiritual guidance. According to the latest polls support for OUT is greater than 60% among over 60's and support for IN is greater than 70% among those under 30, if the young and the lefties swing from IN to OUT there is no group left to overwhelmingly support IN apart from the LD.
That's remarkably over-simplistic. There is a huge portion of Conservative 'interested in business' people as just one other group of In supporters.
However overall the primary group of In is the risk-averse who will see Out as a jump too far. They are not going to be tempted to switch by Corbyn which is why Corbyn is neither that relevant to the EU Referendum nor will he win a General Election.
If the core support for In was the young and Labour then Out would be overwhelming favourites rather than outsiders.
It is though, you are forgetting that pro-EU businessmen are few in numbers probably around 10 thousand, that's a drop in the bucket.
The proportion of those who wish to remain in the EU and voted Labour last time is 1/3 rd of the total and the largest block for IN from a political party, and from those under 35 the share is 37% of the IN vote, predominantly Corbyn voters.
Even geographically the IN voters predominantly come from Corbyn areas like London, the North, and Scotland.
Corbyn's ace card against Cameron is that he can sway his block from IN to OUT if he wishes.
This is the kind of BS argument that leads to the false conclusion that Conservatives can never win an election as business people are a small number.
That may be true, but people who rely on having sustainable jobs are a massive number. The reason business leaders for Conservatives works as a voting issue isn't because of the (relatively small number of) business leaders alone but because people think its risky for their employment and their career.
The number one card that Remain in the EU has is employment. The number one card Leave the EU has is migration. Youth vote is pretty inconsequential to the main debate - as will be Corbyn.
And remaining in the EU is a risk free option? The EU have not exactly shown themselves to be competent recently.
Wow you're a humble sort of a guy. But that's as much name calling as I'm doing. You carry on with the playground stuff.
The reaction of the political establishment is going to fuel the anti-establishment Corbyn agenda all the more. I think he's tapping into a groundswell against vested interests that has been building for a long time. The more people like Mandleson carry on fanning the flames, the more it's going to grow.
hi Estobar (if it is really you).
Russell Brand has 1m subscribers to his youtube channel. Let's say that 30% of them think he's funny (can't see it myself but hey), 30% of them subscribed and can't remember that they did, and then 40% of them believe in his political vision, such as it is.
That's 400,000 people. There's your groundswell. They have recently noticed that The Labour Party is now a host for their views and have migrated there.
400,000 idealists/lunatics does not a serious, grown-up political force make.
The Staggers @TheStaggers 2m2 minutes ago Confirmed: Burnham becomes shadow home secretary and Hilary Benn remains shadow foreign secretary. http://bit.ly/1KLU7AI
Think a bloke called Reg Prentice defected in about 78. MP for Daventry? Think Mrs T made him minister for the disabled ( as it then was called ) in 79.
A more recent example is John Marek, who went from Labour -> Wales Forward -> Conservative.
It seems to me that deselections are inevitable, as the PLP does not reflect the membership.
In that circumstance, I think we will see some defections, at least to Independent Labour.
Possibly yeah. Or to the LD's if they step to the left ( likely ). Full blown full fat caffeine defections to the Tories is v probably a step too far in a national level.
This is the kind of BS argument that leads to the false conclusion that Conservatives can never win an election as business people are a small number.
That may be true, but people who rely on having sustainable jobs are a massive number. The reason business leaders for Conservatives works as a voting issue isn't because of the (relatively small number of) business leaders alone but because people think its risky for their employment and their career.
The number one card that Remain in the EU has is employment. The number one card Leave the EU has is migration. Youth vote is pretty inconsequential to the main debate - as will be Corbyn.
The youth vote is 37% of IN voters by far the largest demographic block, it's a nice theory that you don't need them but since it's the only group that supports in it's majority IN, then you can't afford to lose them.
The youth vote according to that survey you quoted is only 38.7% 10/10 to turnout to vote.
And that's by incorporating people like myself (33) in that age group. The youth vote as in 18-24 is quite different to people in their thirties.
If In relies critically on an age group that won't vote then they've already lost.
If Labour go anti EU, that's good news for the LDs who finally gain a raison d'etre.
Pro EU - Pro Immigration: Lib Dems Pro EU - Anti Immigration: Tories Anti-EU - Pro Immigration: Labour Anti EU - Anti Immigration: UKIP
Labour's would probably be the worst position of the lot.
What makes the Tories "anti immigration"? We have had over 5 years of a Tory PM, and it is at record levels.
If we can try to put aside the need to be seen to be right here, I can't imagine how if you tried to explain to an alien (!) that the Tories were "anti immigration", he or she would be able to understand that in the face of the evidence
Between you and me, only one of us actually knows Charlie !
True. But don't you think to be an arch-Blairite he should really have backed the Blairite candidate? Which would suggest he was more Blair, than Blairite?
I've been rather busy with other things for the last few days, but I'd just like to check that politicalbetting.com has sent a formal note of thanks to the Labour Party not only for the entertainment of the last few months, but more importantly for the highly profitable betting opportunities.
Dare we hope for another go in a couple of years' time?
I've been busy over the weekend, other stuff, real life, etc.
Did I miss anything while I've been away?
It was my birthday yesterday
Get any nice presents?
A helicopter
Excellent planning for a Zombie apocalypse, or a Corbyn one which is slightly more unlikely!
...without Corbyn's support Cameron would not be able to win his referendum...
Sure about that?
Absolutely, the core support for IN is among the young and Labour voters whom they now look to Corbyn for spiritual guidance. According to the latest polls support for OUT is greater than 60% among over 60's and support for IN is greater than 70% among those under 30, if the young and the lefties swing from IN to OUT there is no group left to overwhelmingly support IN apart from the LD.
That's remarkably over-simplistic. There is a huge portion of Conservative 'interested in business' people as just one other group of In supporters.
However overall the primary group of In is the risk-averse who will see Out as a jump too far. They are not going to be tempted to switch by Corbyn which is why Corbyn is neither that relevant to the EU Referendum nor will he win a General Election.
If the core support for In was the young and Labour then Out would be overwhelming favourites rather than outsiders.
The youth vote is not sufficient on its own for "In" to win, but it is necessary.
I don't agree whatsoever. The youth vote in a referendum could be key if it is close but it is probably inconsequential. Turnout in the youth vote is notoriously low (as well as being demographically low).
For In to win it is necessary to appear to be the low risk (versus the risky Out) option. For the mature sensible option to be to Remain in Europe, while leaving will be a risky and divisive move. Having Corbyn join the ranks of Out while moderate Labourites are saying In could help more than hurt the In campaign.
Very true. If Jezza lines up for Out, then sensible folk may react by voting In.
If Labour go anti EU, that's good news for the LDs who finally gain a raison d'etre.
Pro EU - Pro Immigration: Lib Dems Pro EU - Anti Immigration: Tories Anti-EU - Pro Immigration: Labour Anti EU - Anti Immigration: UKIP
Labour's would probably be the worst position of the lot.
What makes the Tories "anti immigration"? We have had over 5 years of a Tory PM, and it is at record levels.
If we can try to put aside the need to be seen to be right here, I can't imagine how if you tried to explain to an alien (!) that the Tories were "anti immigration", he or she would be able to understand that in the face of the evidence
This is the kind of BS argument that leads to the false conclusion that Conservatives can never win an election as business people are a small number.
That may be true, but people who rely on having sustainable jobs are a massive number. The reason business leaders for Conservatives works as a voting issue isn't because of the (relatively small number of) business leaders alone but because people think its risky for their employment and their career.
The number one card that Remain in the EU has is employment. The number one card Leave the EU has is migration. Youth vote is pretty inconsequential to the main debate - as will be Corbyn.
The youth vote is 37% of IN voters by far the largest demographic block, it's a nice theory that you don't need them but since it's the only group that supports in it's majority IN, then you can't afford to lose them.
The youth vote according to that survey you quoted is only 38.7% 10/10 to turnout to vote.
And that's by incorporating people like myself (33) in that age group. The youth vote as in 18-24 is quite different to people in their thirties.
If In relies critically on an age group that won't vote then they've already lost.
IN already relies on that, that's how IN and OUT is close in the polls, if IN didn't had 70%+ among the young OUT would have been miles away.
The SNP lost the referendum because it relied on the young.
@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
Maybe Corybn has his **** in a box somewhere....
"And what does my Reek want? To return to the backbenches perhaps?"
Careful, careful, thought Andy. He was treading on thin ice.
"I'm your Reek, M'lord, I only want to serve you. A place in your shadow cabinet will suffice."
"And you shall have it" said Jeremy, smiling. He was as good as his word, and when Andy was chained up in his kennel, Diane Abbott even brought him half a roasted Capon."
If Corbyn is toppled I would now make Benn favourite to succeed him as leader before 2020. He is moderate enough to appeal to Blairites and Brownites, while also serving Corbyn in his Shadow Cabinet as Shadow Foreign Secretary and an experienced hand who was a Cabinet Minister too, his last name would also mean he would automatically get the left back on board after any coup. So Hilary Benn to be Labour's Michael Howard in 2017/18 if the polls fail to lift? You heard it here first
@StigAbell: "Privately, it's a disaster for the Labour Party", said new Shadow Home Secretary Burnham to a Sun undercover reporter about Jeremy Corbyn.
@StigAbell: "Privately, it's a disaster for the Labour Party", said new Shadow Home Secretary Burnham to a Sun undercover reporter about Jeremy Corbyn.
A disaster that those eligible to vote exercised their democratic choice?
And remaining in the EU is a risk free option? The EU have not exactly shown themselves to be competent recently.
I didn't judge it as to whether its right or wrong, just as to how the debate will be played out. If remaining in the EU is seen as riskier than leaving then leave will win.
Though I think both sides right now will be looking at Corbyn and be quite OK to see him on the other team's side! Having him on your own side of this EU debate would be a case of "with friends like this ..."
@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn won
Terrible error by Burnham.
Corbyn is looking wobblier by the minute. Even if Jihadist Jez wants to stay until 2020 (and he does) I now reckon he will be gone by 2017 or before. Any MP who agrees to serve in his Shadow Cabinet will be hideously tainted. Tsk.
Next Labour majority? 2035.
Assuming you are who I think you are then why should anyone be listening to what you have to say about the Labour party, Mr Thomas?
I think Andy's right to stick it. Remember everyone that Corbyn was swept in with 60% of the popular vote. Those now removing themselves are unlikely to be popular with rank and file. They're the old new labour guard who are getting expunged as Labour rediscovers its identity after the hideous Blair tory years.
"Assuming you are who i think you are"?
We all know who Sean is, it's not a secret!
I have to say, Estobar is a wonderfully entertaining addition to PB. reminds me a little of the long departed ben_M
how could you not enjoy a poster whose name is an anagram of Arsebot ?
@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn won
Terrible error by Burnham.
Corbyn is looking wobblier by the minute. Even if Jihadist Jez wants to stay until 2020 (and he does) I now reckon he will be gone by 2017 or before. Any MP who agrees to serve in his Shadow Cabinet will be hideously tainted. Tsk.
Next Labour majority? 2035.
Assuming you are who I think you are then why should anyone be listening to what you have to say about the Labour party, Mr Thomas?
I think Andy's right to stick it. Remember everyone that Corbyn was swept in with 60% of the popular vote. Those now removing themselves are unlikely to be popular with rank and file. They're the old new labour guard who are getting expunged as Labour rediscovers its identity after the hideous Blair tory years.
"Assuming you are who i think you are"?
We all know who Sean is, it's not a secret!
I have to say, Estobar is a wonderfully entertaining addition to PB. reminds me a little of the long departed ben_M
Even Ben M thinks Corybns a disaster.
Does he still post on PB. Haven't seen him in a while.
So Jeremy Corbyn has appointed Andy Burnham as Home Secretary, a man who is ON RECORD as very recently saying that Jeremy Corbyn would be "a disaster" as Labour leader.
Yes. I can't see any problems there. At all. Noooooo. It's all good. All good.
This has been the most politically entertaining weekend of my life.
I really didn't think that my opinion of Andy Burnham could go any lower but I underestimated the man.
He probably thinks that he will be in a fairly powerful position because if he resigned over any particular issue the whole thing could unravel.
What am I saying? The credibility of the Shadow Cabinet rests on Burnham? Unbelievable.
@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn won
Terrible error by Burnham.
Corbyn is looking wobblier by the minute. Even if Jihadist Jez wants to stay until 2020 (and he does) I now reckon he will be gone by 2017 or before. Any MP who agrees to serve in his Shadow Cabinet will be hideously tainted. Tsk.
Next Labour majority? 2035.
Assuming you are who I think you are then why should anyone be listening to what you have to say about the Labour party, Mr Thomas?
I think Andy's right to stick it. Remember everyone that Corbyn was swept in with 60% of the popular vote. Those now removing themselves are unlikely to be popular with rank and file. They're the old new labour guard who are getting expunged as Labour rediscovers its identity after the hideous Blair tory years.
"Assuming you are who i think you are"?
We all know who Sean is, it's not a secret!
I have to say, Estobar is a wonderfully entertaining addition to PB. reminds me a little of the long departed ben_M
Even Ben M thinks Corybns a disaster.
Does he still post on PB. Haven't seen him in a while.
I occasionally chat to him on twitter, he said he wanted to take a break away from politics after the events in May. Whilst the result was not unexpected to him, he still didn't enjoy it.
So Jeremy Corbyn has appointed Andy Burnham as Home Secretary, a man who is ON RECORD as very recently saying that Jeremy Corbyn would be "a disaster" as Labour leader.
Yes. I can't see any problems there. At all. Noooooo. It's all good. All good.
This has been the most politically entertaining weekend of my life.
I really didn't think that my opinion of Andy Burnham could go any lower but I underestimated the man.
He probably thinks that he will be in a fairly powerful position because if he resigned over any particular issue the whole thing could unravel.
What am I saying? The credibility of the Shadow Cabinet rests on Burnham? Unbelievable.
If Corbyn is toppled I would now make Benn favourite to succeed him as leader before 2020. He is moderate enough to appeal to Blairites and Brownites, while also serving Corbyn in his Shadow Cabinet as Shadow Foreign Secretary and an experienced hand who was a Cabinet Minister too, his last name would also mean he would automatically get the left back on board after any coup. So Hilary Benn to be Labour's Michael Howard in 2017/18 if the polls fail to lift? You heard it here first
Dan Jarvis on AQ still showed he has it in him to be leader. I think Lab could learn some ruthlessness from his SEMOD approach.
Very nearly squared the circle of calling for unity while stating he wouldn't support Jezza.
All Lab supporters want (presumably?) is a sensible person with a heart who goes in to bat for the needy, eschews the priveleged, constructs policies which reflect this but doesn't go crazy with it, and comes from the real world. Not too many of those around atm but he is one.
@StigAbell: "Privately, it's a disaster for the Labour Party", said new Shadow Home Secretary Burnham to a Sun undercover reporter about Jeremy Corbyn.
A disaster that those eligible to vote exercised their democratic choice?
No a disaster in that they will be in perpetual opposition.
@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
He always said he would stay in the Shadow Cabinet even if Corbyn won
Terrible error by Burnham.
Corbyn is looking wobblier by the minute. Even if Jihadist Jez wants to stay until 2020 (and he does) I now reckon he will be gone by 2017 or before. Any MP who agrees to serve in his Shadow Cabinet will be hideously tainted. Tsk.
Next Labour majority? 2035.
Assuming you are who I think you are then why should anyone be listening to what you have to say about the Labour party, Mr Thomas?
I think Andy's right to stick it. Remember everyone that Corbyn was swept in with 60% of the popular vote. Those now removing themselves are unlikely to be popular with rank and file. They're the old new labour guard who are getting expunged as Labour rediscovers its identity after the hideous Blair tory years.
"Assuming you are who i think you are"?
We all know who Sean is, it's not a secret!
I have to say, Estobar is a wonderfully entertaining addition to PB. reminds me a little of the long departed ben_M
@tnewtondunn: EXCL: Jeremy Corbyn to appoint a Minister for Jews in a bid to defuse criticism of anti-Semitic links; http://t.co/73CKQG7NFo
Will they push foward policies that help identify who are jews? Muslims have the niqab etc so maybe Labour will conclude that jews need a sign on their clothing? Innocent face.
If Corbyn is toppled I would now make Benn favourite to succeed him as leader before 2020. He is moderate enough to appeal to Blairites and Brownites, while also serving Corbyn in his Shadow Cabinet as Shadow Foreign Secretary and an experienced hand who was a Cabinet Minister too, his last name would also mean he would automatically get the left back on board after any coup. So Hilary Benn to be Labour's Michael Howard in 2017/18 if the polls fail to lift? You heard it here first
@SkyNewsBreak: Sky Sources: Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle expected to remain in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet
Andy Burnham showing the backbone and good judge of character for which he is justly famous....
Can we just call him "Reek" now and get it over with?
Maybe Corybn has his **** in a box somewhere....
"And what does my Reek want? To return to the backbenches perhaps?"
Careful, careful, thought Andy. He was treading on thin ice.
"I'm your Reek, M'lord, I only want to serve you. A place in your shadow cabinet will suffice."
"And you shall have it" said Jeremy, smiling. He was as good as his word, and when Andy was chained up in his kennel, Diane Abbott even brought him half a roasted Capon."
I'm waiting for the scene where Jeremy Corbyn asks him to shave him...
@tnewtondunn: EXCL: Jeremy Corbyn to appoint a Minister for Jews in a bid to defuse criticism of anti-Semitic links; http://t.co/73CKQG7NFo
Oh FFS. That just makes it worse.
Maybe there will be a minister for each ethnic minority.
I'm reminded of the crucifixion scene in the Life if Brian where they all start shouting they want execution with their own minority. Rather apt really.
"Corbyn has appeared as a guest on Russia Today, and in a tweet urged followers to watch the station, arguing it provides a more "objective" coverage of world affairs than Western media."
Like millions of others, I joined the ranks of reluctant Conservatives at the last election. To the haters on the left, I have sold my soul and turned to the dark side. And I'll do it again, because the left has nothing to offer. Here comes the abuse...
I first realised that I was Tory scum on the weekend after the general election. The losing side was throwing a terrible tantrum. "F*** TORY SCUM", they sprayed on a Whitehall memorial dedicated to the women who fought in the Second World War. Well, that's me, I thought. They are definitely talking about me. Because whatever these people believe, I know that I will always be on the other side.
Like eleven million of my countrymen, I had voted Conservative because the alternative felt indistinguishable from national suicide.
This is That Tony Parsons who wrote for the Mirror for 25yrs.
Comments
Russell Brand has 1m subscribers to his youtube channel. Let's say that 30% of them think he's funny (can't see it myself but hey), 30% of them subscribed and can't remember that they did, and then 40% of them believe in his political vision, such as it is.
That's 400,000 people. There's your groundswell. They have recently noticed that The Labour Party is now a host for their views and have migrated there.
400,000 idealists/lunatics does not a serious, grown-up political force make.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwfuPEByvO8
If it keeps going like this then the tea lady at Islington council may be in with a shout for a ShadCab position.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34237564
Between you and me, only one of us actually knows Charlie !
Gore-Liebermann > Sore-Loserman
http://www.donspage.com/funny/pictures/whiners.jpg
Didn't know about Marek's history.
And that's by incorporating people like myself (33) in that age group. The youth vote as in 18-24 is quite different to people in their thirties.
If In relies critically on an age group that won't vote then they've already lost.
I thought Emily Smugberry was nailed on for that jobbie.
But i'll defer to your personal knowledge.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34238033
@PaulBrandITV
Interestingly, one of these appointments was sneering to me about Corbyn just yesterday.
The SNP lost the referendum because it relied on the young.
Careful, careful, thought Andy. He was treading on thin ice.
"I'm your Reek, M'lord, I only want to serve you. A place in your shadow cabinet will suffice."
"And you shall have it" said Jeremy, smiling. He was as good as his word, and when Andy was chained up in his kennel, Diane Abbott even brought him half a roasted Capon."
See:http://news.sky.com/story/1551687/live-updates-corbyn-choosing-shadow-cabinet
If Eagle does not become shadow chancellor all the great offices of state will be shadowed by men. bit.ly/1KLU7AI
Though I think both sides right now will be looking at Corbyn and be quite OK to see him on the other team's side! Having him on your own side of this EU debate would be a case of "with friends like this ..."
With what power to do anything as a back bench opposition MP?
He probably thinks that he will be in a fairly powerful position because if he resigned over any particular issue the whole thing could unravel.
What am I saying? The credibility of the Shadow Cabinet rests on Burnham? Unbelievable.
See Cooper gets off light though.
Or Minister for Metal.
Oh. Sorry.
Isn't the point of Ministries that they deal with issues?
So in Corbynistan, Jews are an "issue" that needs dealt with.
He will be back on PB.
Andy Burnham has lost his principles but found a job. Well done Andy from the north.
Very nearly squared the circle of calling for unity while stating he wouldn't support Jezza.
All Lab supporters want (presumably?) is a sensible person with a heart who goes in to bat for the needy, eschews the priveleged, constructs policies which reflect this but doesn't go crazy with it, and comes from the real world. Not too many of those around atm but he is one.
Abbot says the PLP will want to rally behind Corbyn.
Labour Party Split nailed on
Innocent face.
(He hasn't, yet)
http://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=11261270&postcount=1
Ian Baxter @IanBaxter66
So far the 50/50 gender based shadow cabinet isn't going that well. Window dressing? #Labour
Only seen her once - but she seemed disarmingly normal.
Interesting. I liked her.
Chancellor, Treasury Sec, Defence, Work & Pensions, Business, any other big ones?
"The only way this could get any worse was if Corbyn said the UK deserved to be attacked by ISIS"
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/jeremy-corbyn-putins-latest-useful-idiot-europe-1515028
What happens when the shadow cabinet reaches a negative number?