politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A bad GE2015 omen for the Green party: It loses council by-

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Will supporting cancer enducing products and excessive boozing be in the CON manifesto?

Three cheers for CON MP Sarah Wollaston for speaking out against today's decisions.

George Osborne has got this one wrong - surprise surprise.

TGOHF said:

tim said:

Now Dave's personal alcohol policy goes as well.
Stupid policy Dave made his own.

Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick
After #cigarette packaging and minimum alcohol pricing, @drwollastonmp tells @bbcshaunley on #wato it's a "very sad day for public health"


James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers
Govt right to drop minimum alcohol pricing - political suicide in a cost of living election. Not so sure about plain cigarette packs

Suspect that being in the pocket of the tobacco companies is far more damaging.

A whole MP who wanted to go down the nanny state line - wooo good spot tim.

Will minimum pricing and plain packets be in the Labour manifesto ?

Smokers are national benefactors.

They contribute more than their fair share in taxes and die earlier saving on pension costs.

martyrs to the nation's finances and they get no thanks for it.

I know. I felt so guilty when I gave up smoking.

you do realise the extra five years life you get will be sat in incontinence pants saying gaga ( or writing Labour's manifesto -same thing ) ?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Will supporting cancer enducing products and excessive boozing be in the CON manifesto?

Three cheers for CON MP Sarah Wollaston for speaking out against today's decisions.

George Osborne has got this one wrong - surprise surprise.

TGOHF said:

tim said:

Now Dave's personal alcohol policy goes as well.
Stupid policy Dave made his own.

Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick
After #cigarette packaging and minimum alcohol pricing, @drwollastonmp tells @bbcshaunley on #wato it's a "very sad day for public health"


James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers
Govt right to drop minimum alcohol pricing - political suicide in a cost of living election. Not so sure about plain cigarette packs

Suspect that being in the pocket of the tobacco companies is far more damaging.

A whole MP who wanted to go down the nanny state line - wooo good spot tim.

Will minimum pricing and plain packets be in the Labour manifesto ?

Smokers are national benefactors.

They contribute more than their fair share in taxes and die earlier saving on pension costs.

martyrs to the nation's finances and they get no thanks for it.

I know. I felt so guilty when I gave up smoking.

No one likes a quitter.

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Will supporting cancer enducing products and excessive boozing be in the CON manifesto?

Three cheers for CON MP Sarah Wollaston for speaking out against today's decisions.

George Osborne has got this one wrong - surprise surprise.

TGOHF said:

tim said:

Now Dave's personal alcohol policy goes as well.
Stupid policy Dave made his own.

Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick
After #cigarette packaging and minimum alcohol pricing, @drwollastonmp tells @bbcshaunley on #wato it's a "very sad day for public health"


James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers
Govt right to drop minimum alcohol pricing - political suicide in a cost of living election. Not so sure about plain cigarette packs

Suspect that being in the pocket of the tobacco companies is far more damaging.

A whole MP who wanted to go down the nanny state line - wooo good spot tim.

Will minimum pricing and plain packets be in the Labour manifesto ?

Smokers are national benefactors.

They contribute more than their fair share in taxes and die earlier saving on pension costs.

martyrs to the nation's finances and they get no thanks for it.

I know. I felt so guilty when I gave up smoking.

you do realise the extra five years life you get will be sat in incontinence pants saying gaga ( or writing Labour's manifesto -same thing ) ?

Lol.

Well I could start smoking again then stop in less austere times.

Giving up smoking is easy. I've done it loads of times.

RichardNabavi said:

The thing which puzzles me about the fag packet issue is why it's not an EU-wide decision. This strikes me as one of those rare cases where it would make sense to decide at EU level, as it's a regulation affecting the single market and also has big implications for cross-border trade (and of course for smuggling as well).

The operation of the EU is sometimes very odd.

Seems like it is an EU decision.

http://news.yahoo.com/cigarette-pack-warnings-not-plain-wrappers-eu-committee-215357782.html

I didn't follow the various twists and turns of this one but maybe it's a case where the insiders all know it is and should be an EU call, but the British have to pretend to themselves they're making the decision themselves to stop people freaking out about them being told what to do by foreigners?

tim said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sarah Wollaston only has to win one seat - the government has to win rather more.....

MikeSmithson said:

Three cheers for CON MP Sarah Wollaston for speaking out against today's decisions.

TGOHF said:

tim said:

Now Dave's personal alcohol policy goes as well.
Stupid policy Dave made his own.

Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick
After #cigarette packaging and minimum alcohol pricing, @drwollastonmp tells @bbcshaunley on #wato it's a "very sad day for public health"


James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers
Govt right to drop minimum alcohol pricing - political suicide in a cost of living election. Not so sure about plain cigarette packs

Suspect that being in the pocket of the tobacco companies is far more damaging.

A whole MP who wanted to go down the nanny state line - wooo good spot tim.

Will minimum pricing and plain packets be in the Labour manifesto ?

There is overwhelming support for plain cigarette packaging

All voters 59/25

Con 58/29
Lab 64/23
LD 80/13
UKIP 46/41

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2chabiz0nj/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-100513.pdf

Then lucky Labour can pinch it and make it their 2015 election winner - can't they?

The Mail outdoes itself.

Wolves in Netherlands so they'll soon be in Britain. just how good are they at swimming ?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2361758/The-wolfs-door-Killer-beasts-roaming-Western-Europe-time-100-years-sparking-fears-soon-arrive-Britain.html

less off topic:

Hypocritical of Labour to moan about this cigarette decision today - did they do anything about it in their years in power apart from reverse the F1 advertising ban after the Eccelston intervention?

No, thought not.

Ban this that and the other is rarely edifiying or successful. How'd that prohibition thing work out?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Will supporting cancer enducing products and excessive boozing be in the CON manifesto?

Three cheers for CON MP Sarah Wollaston for speaking out against today's decisions.

George Osborne has got this one wrong - surprise surprise.

TGOHF said:

tim said:

Now Dave's personal alcohol policy goes as well.
Stupid policy Dave made his own.

Nick Sutton ‏@suttonnick
After #cigarette packaging and minimum alcohol pricing, @drwollastonmp tells @bbcshaunley on #wato it's a "very sad day for public health"


James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers
Govt right to drop minimum alcohol pricing - political suicide in a cost of living election. Not so sure about plain cigarette packs

Suspect that being in the pocket of the tobacco companies is far more damaging.

A whole MP who wanted to go down the nanny state line - wooo good spot tim.

Will minimum pricing and plain packets be in the Labour manifesto ?

Smokers are national benefactors.

They contribute more than their fair share in taxes and die earlier saving on pension costs.

martyrs to the nation's finances and they get no thanks for it.

I know. I felt so guilty when I gave up smoking.

you do realise the extra five years life you get will be sat in incontinence pants saying gaga ( or writing Labour's manifesto -same thing ) ?

Lol.

Well I could start smoking again then stop in less austere times.

Giving up smoking is easy. I've done it loads of times.

if smoking is good enough for the PM and DPM then it's good enough for the rest of us. Only girly Ed doesn't smoke and that's cause he made of plasticine.

Rather than faffing about with plain packaging etc isn't the obvious answer for those who care about smoking-related deaths/illnesses to ban smoking and the sale of cigarettes?

If smoking is legal then it is illogical to place excessive limits on how it is sold/marketed.

Just to be clear I don't smoke and don't much care one way or the other about this issue. But if harm to health is the deciding factor then it makes no sense to allow any smoking at all. The same could, of course, be said of alcohol etc.

Our approach to legislation on these "lifestyle" issues does appear a bit muddled.

Max_Edinburgh said:

tim said:

michael burke ‏@menburke 2h
ONS: #Construction is lower now even than in 2008/09 http://bit.ly/1dm5mJI When Osborne says housing is recovering, he means higher prices

The usual suspects appear to have missed the construction data, as they did the manufacturing and export announcements.
Good at cheering on bubble though.

Not unlike your ability to miss every single good piece of economic news. A coincidence I'm sure. You are in absolutely no position to accuse others of being selective.

I get the very strong impression that economics isn't exactly your strong point.

You are quite right, Max, econometrics is not tim's area of expertise.

The Construction data released this morning may not be "good" in absolute terms but relative to the previous quarter they were flat which represents a big improvement on recent trends.

This bodes well for Q2 GDP as can be seen from the following ONS table:

------------------------------------------------------------
                                       Percentage Change    
Public|% GDP|Release|Month|Q 2013 | Q 2013  |M 2013 |M 2013 
      |     |date   |of   |on same| on prev.|on same|on prev
      |     |       |GDP  |Q 2012 | Q 2013  |M 2012 |M 2013 
------------------------------------------------------------
             09 Jul  May   -1.9	  |  0.2    | -2.3     0.0  
Prod.  15.2  11 Jun  Apr   -1.9	  |  0.4    | -1.4    -0.1  
             09 May  Q1	   -2.6	  |  0.3    | -2.0     0.0  
----------------------------------------------------------- 
             12 Jul  May   -4.8	  |  0.0    | -4.8     0.0  
Const.  6.3  14 Jun  Apr     :    |   :     | -2.2     4.6  
             10 May  Q1	   -6.3	  | -2.4    |   :       :   
------------------------------------------------------------
             25 Jul  May      	  |         |               
Serv.  77.8  28 Jun  Apr    1.8	  |  0.8    |  2.0     0.2  
             23 May  Q1	    1.3	  |  0.5    |  1.2     0.0  
----------------------------------------------------------- 
             20 Jun  May    0.7	  |  0.7    |  1.9     2.1  
Retail       22 May  Apr    0.8	  |  0.9    |  0.8    -1.1  
             18 Apr  Q1	    0.4	  |  0.5    | -0.4    -0.5  
----------------------------------------------------------  
Agri.   0.7                Not available monthly	          
-----------------------------------------------------------

The "Q 2013 on previous Q 2013" is the key column.

The problem with construction is the massive fall in output which followed the financial crisis and which was much larger than the general fall in GDP. On the year on year figures, further note should be taken of the distortions caused by May 2013 having one more bank holiday than May 2012.

This is shown in the ONS introduction to the above table:

The most recent estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) confirmed the UK economy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2013 following a contraction of 0.2% in Q4 2012. Construction output has contrasted these recent movements, falling by 2.4% in Q1 2013 after a short-lived return to growth (0.8%) in the previous quarter.

Looking at the longer term trend, GDP has fallen by 3.9% in the five years since the first quarter of 2008, whereas construction output has fallen by 18.9% over the same time period.

Construction estimates are highly responsive to the economic cycle and have provided some of the largest downward contributions to GDP. In terms of volume, construction output fell to £23,669 million in Q1 2013. This is the lowest level since Q1 1999 and £309 million below the previous trough in Q3 2009.

Given the cold weather depressed Q1 resulted in a contraction of -2.4%, flat monthly and quarterly figures for May (and to May) are, in context, good outcomes and bode well for Q2 2013 GDP growth being solid.

The good news just won't stop coming, tim, even in areas of great diffculty for the economy.

And before you bang on about house prices, GDP growth is driven by volume not value.

tim said:

JosiasJessop said:

tim said:

@Josias.

Point proven.
Nothing to direct at the detritus using Rigby's death.

Just before I pedal off: you obviously missed my "What they said was wrong." in my previous post.

If they are 'detritus' for using Rigby's tragic death, then what are you for using McCann's death, crying at funerals and child sex abuse?

You're now claiming Madeleine McCann is dead while praising Cameron for sending detectives out to the Algarve rather than looking for other children.
You're out of your depth again.

I apologise for the mistake. I meant her disappearance.

"praising Cameron for sending detectives out to the Algarve rather than looking for other children." is particularly nasty.

In your mind are the many searches for Keith Bennett's body on Saddleworth Moor equally worthy of contempt? Should they have spent the money looking for missing children who might still be alive?

What price do you put on finding a missing child? And yes, I will praise Cameron for sending the detectives out, as it looks as though they have made some progress.

It's a shame you can not.

Off-topic: it's blooming hot out there. I think I lost half a stone cycling ten miles ...

Alanbrooke said:

The Mail outdoes itself.

Wolves in Netherlands so they'll soon be in Britain. just how good are they at swimming ?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2361758/The-wolfs-door-Killer-beasts-roaming-Western-Europe-time-100-years-sparking-fears-soon-arrive-Britain.html

Do wolves predate foxes? Get them into our cities now, if so.

kjohnw said:

"Compulsory school dinners brings the price down as the fixed costs are spread among double the number of people.

What do you put in a 70p lunch?"

When you are buying for four in bulk you can save money by for example cooking a whole chicken an which costs around £3 and it will last for 3 days dinners . You can buy 500 hrams of mild cheddar grated for £2.15 . If you know how to shop it is quite rasy to make nutricious lunches on a small budget

Yep, you must have teenagers in secondary school, I know I was 2.50p ahead for my three while at secondary school. I was forced to put my lot onto packed lunches at their first primary school as the lunches on offer were so poor. Oldest lad once got offered up school 'chicken dippers' three days in a row after they kept running out of the meals on the menu. Anyhoos, mine came home with well done/healthy lunch badges after a random inspection of what was in their lunch boxes so its pretty easy to put together a cheap, sensible, tasty and healthy packed lunch.

Once your kids hit secondary school and can leave the school premises to go shopping for their own lunch it becomes harder for both parents or the school to monitor their eating habits. Another reason why I went back to giving them a packed lunch in those early years there too.

"Could they end up with zero MPs?"

They could indeed, but so could UKIP and the greens have at least had an MP whereas NF and the kippers still don't.

RichardNabavi said:

The thing which puzzles me about the fag packet issue is why it's not an EU-wide decision. This strikes me as one of those rare cases where it would make sense to decide at EU level, as it's a regulation affecting the single market and also has big implications for cross-border trade (and of course for smuggling as well).

The operation of the EU is sometimes very odd.

The EU considered doing it but decided in view of the absence of any kind of consensus on the issue to leave it to Member States, though they introduced a specific ruling to protect states that did do it from complaints about free market barrirers.

By the way, I guess others have commented, and I'm not the only one for whom PB has been totally reformatted today?