And can I ask, which party in Greece dropped the country in the deep doodah originally? It couldn't have been a right wing one? Of course not. They have a reputation of being honest, trustworthy governance, much like our own.
Depends when you consider the whole mess started. It was the left of centre PASOK that took Greece into the Euro in the first place.
But It was the Right of Centre New Democracy who were in charge at the time of the financial crisis in 2008 and who, when in opposition from 2009 to 2011, opposed both the original bailout from the EU/IMF and the three associated austerity packages. They also opposed the second bailout package in 2011 and only agreed to support it if the Government resigned.
It is they, perhaps far more than the current Tsipras government who are responsible for the mess Greece is now in.
Yet under Samaras the Greek economy was growing for the first time in 6 years by 2014 and it was beginning to repay its debt
Nope. Debt got worse throughout Samaras' time in power as I said in my previous post. .
Greece was the fastest growing economy in the eurozone by the third quarter of 2014 and achieved a primary government budget surplus in 2013. In any case while it was not perfect it was rather better than it is now
On greek opinion polls showing most greeks wanting to stay in the Euro, I think we should take them with a mountain size pinch of salt.
Greek opinion polls have a good record only on voting intentions just before a GE probably because that's the only thing they actually get tested in reality, but as proved tonight they are really rubbish or completely biased at surveying public opinion.
Most polls predicted a No, just a narrow not a big No
From neck to neck with a +-1% to a more than 20% blowout that is a polling disgrace larger than any Ashcroft constituency poll.
It reflects the late swings we have seen this year
Jeez....while Athens burns the EU numpties argue about who called who first to arrange a summit Farcical.
Ryan Heath Ryan Heath –
French govt insists it too called for a Euro Summit on #Greece. Talked to Merkel first but also 3 #EU presidents my source says. 3:17 pm - 5 Jul 2015
And yet there are some people in this country (and PB'rs) that think the EU is like a good doctor that cures countries from their ailments but only if countries want too.
The EU is completely useless, they can't solve the eurocrisis for 6 years now, they can't decide what to do with migrants, and they can't even decide who arranged the latest meeting.
Oh, and BTW: Seeing this as some kind of triumphant blow against the EU is just ludicrous. It's a triumphant blow against the EU in the sense that an injured drunk lashing out against a doctor who's trying to help him is a triumphant blow.
When did the EU actually succeed in solving any problem? How can you claim they are like doctors when the EU has cured nothing?
You can prescribe pills; you can't make the patient take them.
You can prescribe Cyanide, but it won't cure the patient.
I think that is the Syrizia prescription.
I think within a week or so the Greek people will look back at the austerity of the last 5 years more positively, because they will see what the alternative looks like.
A diet of bread and water looks rich when you are starving.
And can I ask, which party in Greece dropped the country in the deep doodah originally? It couldn't have been a right wing one? Of course not. They have a reputation of being honest, trustworthy governance, much like our own.
Depends when you consider the whole mess started. It was the left of centre PASOK that took Greece into the Euro in the first place.
But It was the Right of Centre New Democracy who were in charge at the time of the financial crisis in 2008 and who, when in opposition from 2009 to 2011, opposed both the original bailout from the EU/IMF and the three associated austerity packages. They also opposed the second bailout package in 2011 and only agreed to support it if the Government resigned.
It is they, perhaps far more than the current Tsipras government who are responsible for the mess Greece is now in.
Yet under Samaras the Greek economy was growing for the first time in 6 years by 2014 and it was beginning to repay its debt
Nope. Debt got worse throughout Samaras' time in power as I said in my previous post. .
Greece was the fastest growing economy in the eurozone by the third quarter of 2014 and achieved a primary government budget surplus in 2013
And yet its debt was still increasing and would continue to increase no matter what Samaras or any other Greek leader did. This is the bit you are missing. The deck was stacked in such a way that they could never get back on track. Eventually they would run out of cuts they could make. The IMF themselves have now recognised this after years of pretending it would work. Go read their latest report on Greece where they say it was and is impossible for Greece to recover without debt relief.
Or Grexit which is now the most likely result
Grexit won't make any difference to the fact that the Greeks still need a massive cut in debt.
Most of the austerity was needed to keep them in the eurozone, returned to the Drachma their debt becomes less pressing
As does all the corruption and all the graft. With that continuing and expanding its hard to see who would want to be a partner to Greece.
Well they have made their debt, now they must lie in it
What next, now that Tsipras has a clear mandate to perform a modern-day scale-up of the miracle of the loaves and fishes?
1. The 100% safe prediction in the short term is that the Greeks will find out on Tuesday that the government was lying to them when it said the banks will re-open. If they are very lucky indeed, there will be a facility for customers to access very small amounts of cash from their accounts, but even that is dubious and in any case won't last long. Greek banks are now bust, which means most Greek businesses are bust. The economy, which has come to an almost total stop in the last few days, will remain in near-total lockdown.
2. Another very safe prediction is that the government will appropriate all the Euro cash and deposits (such as they are) which it can lay its hands on, in order to pay for the most desperately urgent purchases (food, fuel and medicines) . It will presumably issue some kind of worthless IOUs to those whose money is confiscated.
3. The only way the government can continue to operate at all now is by paying pensions and public-sector wages with IOUs. That it turn will require some kind of emergency legislation to force traders to accept these as legal tender. In this way, the exit from the Eurozone will be not with a bang, but a whimper.
4. The main focus of the ECB, Eurozone and EU generally will switch to damage limitation and avoiding contagion. Greece is, after all, tiny, and whatever happens now is Syriza's responsibility. The rest of the EU now has no choice but to write them off as a hopeless case, and hope that, in a few years' time when they've got their act together, they can rejoin the Euro.
5. There will be short-term turbulence in the financial markets, but I don't think this is going to be as big a shock to the EU as some people think. The fact that we seem to be heading for a denouement may even help.
6. Unfortunately the denouement is going to be horrendous in Greece itself. A military coup can't be ruled out.
7. The EU will provide humanitarian aid (food parcels etc), to avert the worst of the disaster.
8. Tsipras and Varoufakis will claim it's a great triumph, no matter how bad it gets
It looks like another massive polling failure to me.
Israel UK Greece.
When will it end ?
It's weird. Just when the polling industry worldwide looked as though it had got things right, they have an annus horribilis like 2015. And we still have Canada and Spain to come.
Personally I don't believe the Canadian Tories will go as low as 28.9% as current polls are indicating:
Jeez....while Athens burns the EU numpties argue about who called who first to arrange a summit Farcical.
Ryan Heath Ryan Heath –
French govt insists it too called for a Euro Summit on #Greece. Talked to Merkel first but also 3 #EU presidents my source says. 3:17 pm - 5 Jul 2015
And yet there are some people in this country (and PB'rs) that think the EU is like a good doctor that cures countries from their ailments but only if countries want too.
The EU is completely useless, they can't solve the eurocrisis for 6 years now, they can't decide what to do with migrants, and they can't even decide who arranged the latest meeting.
By the same criteria our Westminster government is also completely useless. Failed to sort the deficit failed to sort migration. No idea what to do next in the Middle East.
Some problems do not have a simple solution, and some diseases can only be treated symptomatically while they run their course.
To begin with there is no way the desperate EU will kick them out, but what makes your post laughable is you say if they get their act together they can rejoin the Euro.
I think that despite some strong competition that is the single most stupid statement I have ever seen on here.
Another testament to Pavlov.
I didn't say the EU will kick them out of the Euro. In fact I 100% guarantee that they won't, for the very good reason that there's no mechanism to do so.
Yes, saw that today. According to the Filth it's freedom of speech, freedom of expression and all that sort of excellent thing.
But if he worked for me and I exercised some freedom of expression by sacking him on the spot on Monday morning because I didn't like what he did and I feared getting my throat cut in the office then I'd be up in front of the thought polis within seconds.
I expect to see some guardianista style hypocrisy over this and the confederate flag tomorrow, maybe from Tories on here
On the other hand this was the subject of Fridays prayers in Leeds:
Yes, saw that today. According to the Filth it's freedom of speech, freedom of expression and all that sort of excellent thing.
But if he worked for me and I exercised some freedom of expression by sacking him on the spot on Monday morning because I didn't like what he did and I feared getting my throat cut in the office then I'd be up in front of the thought polis within seconds.
I expect to see some guardianista style hypocrisy over this and the confederate flag tomorrow, maybe from Tories on here
Regarding the Confederate flag - or more accurately the Confederate Battle Flag, as most Americans wouldn't know the confederate flag if they fell over it - TVLand has announced it will no longer show The Dukes of Hazard, as the car (The General Lee) has the confederate battle flag.
Bubba Watson, who owns the General Lee car from the show, has announced he will paint over the confederate battle flag on its roof.
The latest cry is for buildings / roads / anything you can think of - named after southern sympathizers / slave owners / confederate generals etc - should be renamed.
It's hard to see where this nonsense will stop. Just how far are folks prepared to go in scrubbing out history?
George Washington and Thomas Jefferson were both slave owners. Will renaming Washington DC be the ultimate goal? Is one of the 5 authors - and original drafter - of the Declaration of Independence to be airbrushed out of history?
Those who fly and support the Confederate battle flag claim it is "heritage, not hate", and indeed I know several people who had relatives die fighting for the confederacy.
The problem is that the flag did not reappear until the early 1960s, as a rallying symbol for those opposed to the civil rights movement.
"Our new Government is founded upon exactly the opposite ideas; its foundations are laid, its cornerstone rests, upon the great truth that the negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery, subordination to the superior race, is his natural and normal condition."
That could have been a standard Hitler speech, but it was the Confederate Vice President. The Confederacy is the American analogue as Nazi Germany is for Germany, time for americans to deal with it like the germans have.
You should read what Honest Abe said in the Lincoln-Douglas debates. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincoln–Douglas_debates Of course slavery was not unlike mass immigration, beneficial for exploitative elite but disastrous for society as a whole.
Jeez....while Athens burns the EU numpties argue about who called who first to arrange a summit Farcical.
Ryan Heath Ryan Heath –
French govt insists it too called for a Euro Summit on #Greece. Talked to Merkel first but also 3 #EU presidents my source says. 3:17 pm - 5 Jul 2015
And yet there are some people in this country (and PB'rs) that think the EU is like a good doctor that cures countries from their ailments but only if countries want too.
The EU is completely useless, they can't solve the eurocrisis for 6 years now, they can't decide what to do with migrants, and they can't even decide who arranged the latest meeting.
Gets worse... Now Italians are up in arms . Euro rats in a sack and the infighting commences....
Jeanette Minns 43 MINUTES AGO Jacopo Barigazzi reports: It’s on the insistence of Italy and other countries that European Council President Donald Tusk has announced a eurozone summit on Tuesday evening to discuss the situation after the referendum in Greece. That’s according to sources close to the Italian premier, quoted on TV news channel La7 in its live coverage on the Greek vote.
According to these sources, Italy and other unspecified member states would have reacted negatively to news that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the French president François Hollande will meet on Monday to talk about the next steps. Rome would have stressed that a situation so difficult cannot be discussed in a bilateral meeting and that it would need a summit of European leaders.
When people say they'll be a resurgence in hard-left opposition to the EU, I ask this: when has the hard-left ever been pro-EU? I still don't see the hard-left being relevant in any case, simply because the EU doesn't rank as an issue which concerns most people. I'm willingly to bet, for all the eurosceptic posturing Labour may indulge in, in the coming months by the time of the referendum, they'll still be backing an IN vote. Anti-Americanism became a thing because we were directly involved in 'American' wars such as Iraq. We are not, in this case directly involved the Greek crisis, and as a result I can see Germanophobia being restricted to small minority of Europhobes who obsess over the EU. The Great British Public don't like the EU; but it's something they don't really think about, nor get passionate about most of time.
It looks like another massive polling failure to me.
Israel UK Greece.
When will it end ?
It's weird. Just when the polling industry worldwide looked as though it had got things right, they have an annus horribilis like 2015. And we still have Canada and Spain to come.
Personally I don't believe that the Canadian Tories will go as low as 28.9% as current polls are indicating:
I do believe it, Harper is consistently the most unpopular PM of Canada since Brian Mulroney and that's quite an effort, Canadians think the country is going in the wrong direction for years now and the government is heavily under water in the approval ratings, also they have stayed in power for 9 years and people want change. Also the main opposition leader is extremely popular and though as very competent.
Add on top of that a Canadian economic recession since the start of the year and you can see all the ingredients of a government defeat.
It looks like another massive polling failure to me.
Israel UK Greece.
When will it end ?
It's weird. Just when the polling industry worldwide looked as though it had got things right, they have an annus horribilis like 2015. And we still have Canada and Spain to come.
Personally I don't believe the Canadian Tories will go as low as 28.9% as current polls are indicating:
In all 3 countries they had it tied, what seems to have happened was a shift to one side at the last minute. In Canada the Tories are about 10 points down from the last election, they will probably recover a bit but not enough to win
What next, now that Tsipras has a clear mandate to perform a modern-day scale-up of the miracle of the loaves and fishes?
1. The 100% safe prediction in the short term is that the Greeks will find out on Tuesday that the government was lying to them when it said the banks will re-open. If they are very lucky indeed, there will be a facility for customers to access very small amounts of cash from their accounts, but even that is dubious and in any case won't last long. Greek banks are now bust, which means most Greek businesses are bust. The economy, which has come to an almost total stop in the last few days, will remain in near-total lockdown.
2. Another very safe prediction is that the government will appropriate all the Euro cash and deposits (such as they are) which it can lay its hands on, in order to pay for the most desperately urgent purchases (food, fuel and medicines) . It will presumably issue some kind of worthless IOUs to those whose money is confiscated.
3. The only way the government can continue to operate at all now is by paying pensions and public-sector wages with IOUs. That it turn will require some kind of emergency legislation to force traders to accept these as legal tender. In this way, the exit from the Eurozone will be not with a bang, but a whimper.
4. The main focus of the ECB, Eurozone and EU generally will switch to damage limitation and avoiding contagion. Greece is, after all, tiny, and whatever happens now is Syriza's responsibility. The rest of the EU now has no choice but to write them off as a hopeless case, and hope that, in a few years' time when they've got their act together, they can rejoin the Euro.
5. There will be short-term turbulence in the financial markets, but I don't think this is going to be as big a shock to the EU as some people think. The fact that we seem to be heading for a denouement may even help.
6. Unfortunately the denouement is going to be horrendous in Greece itself. A military coup can't be ruled out.
7. The EU will provide humanitarian aid (food parcels etc), to avert the worst of the disaster.
8. Tsipras and Varoufakis will claim it's a great triumph, no matter how bad it gets
Bang on.
The Greeks have forgotten the lesson of Admiral Byng.
And can I ask, which party in Greece dropped the country in the deep doodah originally? It couldn't have been a right wing one? Of course not. They have a reputation of being honest, trustworthy governance, much like our own.
Depends when you consider the whole mess started. It was the left of centre PASOK that took Greece into the Euro in the first place.
But It was the Right of Centre New Democracy who were in charge at the time of the financial crisis in 2008 and who, when in opposition from 2009 to 2011, opposed both the original bailout from the EU/IMF and the three associated austerity packages. They also opposed the second bailout package in 2011 and only agreed to support it if the Government resigned.
It is they, perhaps far more than the current Tsipras government who are responsible for the mess Greece is now in.
Yet under Samaras the Greek economy was growing for the first time in 6 years by 2014 and it was beginning to repay its debt
Nope. Debt got worse throughout Samaras' time in power as I said in my previous post. .
Greece was the fastest growing economy in the eurozone by the third quarter of 2014 and achieved a primary government budget surplus in 2013. In any case while it was not perfect it was rather better than it is now
When people say they'll be a resurgence in hard-left opposition to the EU, I ask this: when has the hard-left ever been pro-EU? I still don't see the hard-left being relevant in any case, simply because the EU doesn't rank as an issue which concerns most people. I'm willingly to bet, for all the eurosceptic posturing Labour may indulge in, in the coming months by the time of the referendum, they'll still be backing an IN vote. Anti-Americanism became a thing because we were directly involved in 'American' wars such as Iraq. We are not, in this case directly involved the Greek crisis, and as a result I can see Germanophobia being restricted to small minority of Europhobes who obsess over the EU. The Great British Public don't like the EU; but it's something they don't really think about, nor get passionate about most of time.
Branchflower's a deluded fool if he honestly thinks 'austerity has been booted into the long grass' or if he thinks a German electorate wants to take the fall for the mistakes of the Greek & EU political elite.
What next, now that Tsipras has a clear mandate to perform a modern-day scale-up of the miracle of the loaves and fishes?
1. The 100% safe prediction in the short term is that the Greeks will find out on Tuesday that the government was lying to them when it said the banks will re-open. If they are very lucky indeed, there will be a facility for customers to access very small amounts of cash from their accounts, but even that is dubious and in any case won't last long. Greek banks are now bust, which means most Greek businesses are bust. The economy, which has come to an almost total stop in the last few days, will remain in near-total lockdown.
2. Another very safe prediction is that the government will appropriate all the Euro cash and deposits (such as they are) which it can lay its hands on, in order to pay for the most desperately urgent purchases (food, fuel and medicines) . It will presumably issue some kind of worthless IOUs to those whose money is confiscated.
3. The only way the government can continue to operate at all now is by paying pensions and public-sector wages with IOUs. That it turn will require some kind of emergency legislation to force traders to accept these as legal tender. In this way, the exit from the Eurozone will be not with a bang, but a whimper.
4. The main focus of the ECB, Eurozone and EU generally will switch to damage limitation and avoiding contagion. Greece is, after all, tiny, and whatever happens now is Syriza's responsibility. The rest of the EU now has no choice but to write them off as a hopeless case, and hope that, in a few years' time when they've got their act together, they can rejoin the Euro.
5. There will be short-term turbulence in the financial markets, but I don't think this is going to be as big a shock to the EU as some people think. The fact that we seem to be heading for a denouement may even help.
6. Unfortunately the denouement is going to be horrendous in Greece itself. A military coup can't be ruled out.
7. The EU will provide humanitarian aid (food parcels etc), to avert the worst of the disaster.
8. Tsipras and Varoufakis will claim it's a great triumph, no matter how bad it gets
Post of the day.
Good to see the plucky Greeks stand up to the EU/IMF bully boys!
When did the EU actually succeed in solving any problem? How can you claim they are like doctors when the EU has cured nothing?
You EU-haters are living reenactments of Pavlov's experiment with dogs.
Here's a hint: look up the word 'trying'. Once you've understood it, re-read what I wrote.
They haven't even tried. Going to useless meetings and spending the whole day with nothing to say, with no documents to read and no one having a clue why you are there, but simply being forced to participate till death (standard eurogroup meetings) is not trying, it's lunacy.
The EU has never ever tried to solve any problem in it's history, only to shove the problem under the carpet or to kick the can after the next election and hope no one notices.
Jeez....while Athens burns the EU numpties argue about who called who first to arrange a summit Farcical.
Ryan Heath Ryan Heath –
French govt insists it too called for a Euro Summit on #Greece. Talked to Merkel first but also 3 #EU presidents my source says. 3:17 pm - 5 Jul 2015
And yet there are some people in this country (and PB'rs) that think the EU is like a good doctor that cures countries from their ailments but only if countries want too.
The EU is completely useless, they can't solve the eurocrisis for 6 years now, they can't decide what to do with migrants, and they can't even decide who arranged the latest meeting.
Gets worse... Now Italians are up in arms . Euro rats in a sack and the infighting commences....
Jeanette Minns 43 MINUTES AGO Jacopo Barigazzi reports: It’s on the insistence of Italy and other countries that European Council President Donald Tusk has announced a eurozone summit on Tuesday evening to discuss the situation after the referendum in Greece. That’s according to sources close to the Italian premier, quoted on TV news channel La7 in its live coverage on the Greek vote.
According to these sources, Italy and other unspecified member states would have reacted negatively to news that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the French president François Hollande will meet on Monday to talk about the next steps. Rome would have stressed that a situation so difficult cannot be discussed in a bilateral meeting and that it would need a summit of European leaders.
Perhaps it's just dawning on them that the whole corrupt, anti-democratic cesspit is a French/German stitch-up?
When people say they'll be a resurgence in hard-left opposition to the EU, I ask this: when has the hard-left ever been pro-EU? I still don't see the hard-left being relevant in any case, simply because the EU doesn't rank as an issue which concerns most people. I'm willingly to bet, for all the eurosceptic posturing Labour may indulge in, in the coming months by the time of the referendum, they'll still be backing an IN vote. Anti-Americanism became a thing because we were directly involved in 'American' wars such as Iraq. We are not, in this case directly involved the Greek crisis, and as a result I can see Germanophobia being restricted to small minority of Europhobes who obsess over the EU. The Great British Public don't like the EU; but it's something they don't really think about, nor get passionate about most of time.
Oh please, dream on.
What a convincing argument. That's really won me over, that has.
Branchflower's a deluded fool if he honestly thinks 'austerity has been booted into the long grass' or if he thinks a German electorate wants to take the fall for the mistakes of the Greek & EU political elite.
There are three reasons why Berlin won’t want to back down from this position [not interested in further negotiations with Athens or a new bailout deal].. First, German public opinion is—like public opinion in a lot of Eurozone countries—hostile to sending more money to Greece. Politically, another bailout—let alone debt relief—would be hard to sell to German voters or pass through the German parliament. Second, the Germans fear that offering Syriza better terms would encourage more southern European countries to elect anti-austerity, left-wing parties in the hope of wrestling concessions out of the Eurozone and the European Central Bank. With elections in Spain later this year, the last thing they want to do, is to do anything that will boots Podemos. Finally, the German government simply no longer trusts Syriza and the Greek government. It simply won’t believe any commitments that Tsipras makes now.
Merkel and most people in Germany want Greece to leave the Euro, but they don't want to take the "blame" for booting them out. That's the basic problem I think.
Merkel and most people in Germany want Greece to leave the Euro, but they don't want to take the "blame" for booting them out. That's the basic problem I think.
Surely Angela will do nothing for a week or so - whilst pretending to be busy and chatty.
The pain for Greece will be unbelievable- but well they got what they voted for.
I think she will be busy - but not on trying to help Greece. She and the other Eurozone leaders need to help the other weaker Euro economies, such as Portugal and especially Cyprus (which, already weak, will take a severe and direct hit from the Greek collapse).
There are three reasons why Berlin won’t want to back down from this position [not interested in further negotiations with Athens or a new bailout deal].. First, German public opinion is—like public opinion in a lot of Eurozone countries—hostile to sending more money to Greece. Politically, another bailout—let alone debt relief—would be hard to sell to German voters or pass through the German parliament. Second, the Germans fear that offering Syriza better terms would encourage more southern European countries to elect anti-austerity, left-wing parties in the hope of wrestling concessions out of the Eurozone and the European Central Bank. With elections in Spain later this year, the last thing they want to do, is to do anything that will boots Podemos. Finally, the German government simply no longer trusts Syriza and the Greek government. It simply won’t believe any commitments that Tsipras makes now.
I think the time is arriving where the Germans will be excluded in any EU deal with Greece. I can see loads of bilateral deals between France and Italy on one side and Greece on the other to exclude the Germans.
OK, quick summary. I won't bore you all with a jeremiad, so just the bullet points. * Greece does not want to leave the Euro * Greece will not leave the Euro voluntarily * Greece cannot be forced to leave the Euro by the courts * There are procedural means whereby Greece can be eased out (the other 18 meeting in a separate room, Greece's vote simply being ignored, see previous posts for the list) but they require unanimity amongst the others * Greece has physical plates and a printing press * Greece can also make the Bank of Greece issue unlimited loans to the Greek banks without the consent of the ECB.
Conclusion: Greece will continue to issue Euro notes and loans without the consent of the ECB and cannot be stopped. This will continue until they are physically forced to do so or the other countries leave the Eurozone or redenominate. If the other countries do not do this, Greece will wreck the currency.
TLDR version. Greece isn't locked in with Germany: Germany is locked in with Greece.
Precedent: This is how the roublezone collapsed, with Latvia=Germany and Russia=Greece.
When people say they'll be a resurgence in hard-left opposition to the EU, I ask this: when has the hard-left ever been pro-EU? I still don't see the hard-left being relevant in any case, simply because the EU doesn't rank as an issue which concerns most people. I'm willingly to bet, for all the eurosceptic posturing Labour may indulge in, in the coming months by the time of the referendum, they'll still be backing an IN vote. Anti-Americanism became a thing because we were directly involved in 'American' wars such as Iraq. We are not, in this case directly involved the Greek crisis, and as a result I can see Germanophobia being restricted to small minority of Europhobes who obsess over the EU. The Great British Public don't like the EU; but it's something they don't really think about, nor get passionate about most of time.
Oh please, dream on.
What a convincing argument. That's really won me over, that has.
Is mass immigration important to the British public? Think that is a foregone conclusion don't you? If so then Europe is top of the agenda, something Mike has tried to avoid but I'm afraid that is the reality.
There are three reasons why Berlin won’t want to back down from this position [not interested in further negotiations with Athens or a new bailout deal].. First, German public opinion is—like public opinion in a lot of Eurozone countries—hostile to sending more money to Greece. Politically, another bailout—let alone debt relief—would be hard to sell to German voters or pass through the German parliament. Second, the Germans fear that offering Syriza better terms would encourage more southern European countries to elect anti-austerity, left-wing parties in the hope of wrestling concessions out of the Eurozone and the European Central Bank. With elections in Spain later this year, the last thing they want to do, is to do anything that will boots Podemos. Finally, the German government simply no longer trusts Syriza and the Greek government. It simply won’t believe any commitments that Tsipras makes now.
A very good summary of the situation by Forsyth though. Him and Fraser Nelson are a lot of sane than those within the comments' section of the Spectator website, who are are so right wing they'd make even Nigel Farage blush.
@AndyJS, I think @rcs1000 noted that the Greeks themselves will pull the trigger, when they end up printing Drachmas. Germany won't have to do anything.
I mean that is within the bounds of the "MoE" of the polling...
Even were that to occur that would likely lead to a NDP-Liberal deal (perhaps giving the Liberals PR), as the Tories would be at least 5 points down from even their 2006 total. At the moment the NDP are most likely to form the government, in the 2004 election the Tories under Harper won 29% in their first election following the PC-Alliance merger
There are three reasons why Berlin won’t want to back down from this position [not interested in further negotiations with Athens or a new bailout deal].. First, German public opinion is—like public opinion in a lot of Eurozone countries—hostile to sending more money to Greece. Politically, another bailout—let alone debt relief—would be hard to sell to German voters or pass through the German parliament. Second, the Germans fear that offering Syriza better terms would encourage more southern European countries to elect anti-austerity, left-wing parties in the hope of wrestling concessions out of the Eurozone and the European Central Bank. With elections in Spain later this year, the last thing they want to do, is to do anything that will boots Podemos. Finally, the German government simply no longer trusts Syriza and the Greek government. It simply won’t believe any commitments that Tsipras makes now.
A very good summary of the situation by Forsyth though. Him and Fraser Nelson are a lot of sane than those within the comments' section of the Spectator website, who are are so right wing they'd make even Nigel Farage blush.
@AndyJS, I think @rcs1000 noted that the Greeks themselves will pull the trigger, when they end up printing Drachmas. Germany won't have to do anything.
Exactly. Syrizia are behaving like the Judean Peoples Front (not to be confused with...)
There are three reasons why Berlin won’t want to back down from this position [not interested in further negotiations with Athens or a new bailout deal].. First, German public opinion is—like public opinion in a lot of Eurozone countries—hostile to sending more money to Greece. Politically, another bailout—let alone debt relief—would be hard to sell to German voters or pass through the German parliament. Second, the Germans fear that offering Syriza better terms would encourage more southern European countries to elect anti-austerity, left-wing parties in the hope of wrestling concessions out of the Eurozone and the European Central Bank. With elections in Spain later this year, the last thing they want to do, is to do anything that will boots Podemos. Finally, the German government simply no longer trusts Syriza and the Greek government. It simply won’t believe any commitments that Tsipras makes now.
I think the time is arriving where the Germans will be excluded in any EU deal with Greece. I can see loads of bilateral deals between France and Italy on one side and Greece on the other to exclude the Germans.
When people say they'll be a resurgence in hard-left opposition to the EU, I ask this: when has the hard-left ever been pro-EU? I still don't see the hard-left being relevant in any case, simply because the EU doesn't rank as an issue which concerns most people. I'm willingly to bet, for all the eurosceptic posturing Labour may indulge in, in the coming months by the time of the referendum, they'll still be backing an IN vote. Anti-Americanism became a thing because we were directly involved in 'American' wars such as Iraq. We are not, in this case directly involved the Greek crisis, and as a result I can see Germanophobia being restricted to small minority of Europhobes who obsess over the EU. The Great British Public don't like the EU; but it's something they don't really think about, nor get passionate about most of time.
Oh please, dream on.
What a convincing argument. That's really won me over, that has.
Is mass immigration important to the British public? Think that is a foregone conclusion don't you? If so then Europe is top of the agenda, something Mike has tried to avoid but I'm afraid that is the reality.
To suggest otherwise is ludicrous.
Mass immigration is important to people, but most people don't think mass immigration = EU. If they did, for a start there would be far more clamour to come out of the EU, especially considering how much UKIP have linked the EU and the immigration issue publically. Secondly, on MORI's index the EU would rank as high as the subject of immigration, among voters too. While you hear many people concerned about the immigration, you rarely hear that followed up by criticism of the EU's role in that from your average person.
And now Germany will be excluded from EU deals, apparently. As if they are the only nation who is reluctant to do another deal with Greece. Jesus Christ.
OK, quick summary. I won't bore you all with a jeremiad, so just the bullet points. * Greece does not want to leave the Euro * Greece will not leave the Euro voluntarily * Greece cannot be forced to leave the Euro by the courts * There are procedural means whereby Greece can be eased out (the other 18 meeting in a separate room, Greece's vote simply being ignored, see previous posts for the list) but they require unanimity amongst the others * Greece has physical plates and a printing press * Greece can also make the Bank of Greece issue unlimited loans to the Greek banks without the consent of the ECB.
Conclusion: Greece will continue to issue Euro notes and loans without the consent of the ECB and cannot be stopped. This will continue until they are physically forced to do so or the other countries leave the Eurozone or redenominate. If the other countries do not do this, Greece will wreck the currency.
TLDR version. Greece isn't locked in with Germany: Germany is locked in with Greece.
Precedent: This is how the roublezone collapsed, with Latvia=Germany and Russia=Greece.
Meanwhile all the refugees arriving in the country are given EU passports and waved on their way to Northern Europe. They did threaten that at one point.
Conclusion: Greece will continue to issue Euro notes and loans without the consent of the ECB and cannot be stopped. This will continue until they are physically forced to do so or the other countries leave the Eurozone or redenominate. If the other countries do not do this, Greece will wreck the currency.
TLDR version. Greece isn't locked in with Germany: Germany is locked in with Greece
If you're half right this will escalate further than almost anyone is anticipating at this point.
Oh, and BTW: Seeing this as some kind of triumphant blow against the EU is just ludicrous. It's a triumphant blow against the EU in the sense that an injured drunk lashing out against a doctor who's trying to help him is a triumphant blow.
Perhaps. But it was the same doctor that infected the patient in the first place.
And now Germany will be excluded from EU deals, apparently. As if they are the only nation who is reluctant to do another deal with Greece. Jesus Christ.
They are not the only ones. But France and Italy are starting to get desperate enough to ignore Germany in the eurocrisis.
When people say they'll be a resurgence in hard-left opposition to the EU, I ask this: when has the hard-left ever been pro-EU? I still don't see the hard-left being relevant in any case, simply because the EU doesn't rank as an issue which concerns most people. I'm willingly to bet, for all the eurosceptic posturing Labour may indulge in, in the coming months by the time of the referendum, they'll still be backing an IN vote. Anti-Americanism became a thing because we were directly involved in 'American' wars such as Iraq. We are not, in this case directly involved the Greek crisis, and as a result I can see Germanophobia being restricted to small minority of Europhobes who obsess over the EU. The Great British Public don't like the EU; but it's something they don't really think about, nor get passionate about most of time.
Oh please, dream on.
What a convincing argument. That's really won me over, that has.
Is mass immigration important to the British public? Think that is a foregone conclusion don't you? If so then Europe is top of the agenda, something Mike has tried to avoid but I'm afraid that is the reality.
To suggest otherwise is ludicrous.
Mass immigration is important to people, but most people don't think mass immigration = EU. If they did, for a start there would be far more clamour to come out of the EU, especially considering how much UKIP have linked the EU and the immigration issue publically. Secondly, on MORI's index the EU would rank as high as the subject of immigration, among voters too. While you hear many people concerned about the immigration, you rarely hear that followed up by criticism of the EU's role in that from your average person.
Yes, saw that today. According to the Filth it's freedom of speech, freedom of expression and all that sort of excellent thing.
But if he worked for me and I exercised some freedom of expression by sacking him on the spot on Monday morning because I didn't like what he did and I feared getting my throat cut in the office then I'd be up in front of the thought polis within seconds.
I expect to see some guardianista style hypocrisy over this and the confederate flag tomorrow, maybe from Tories on here
Regarding the Confederate flag - or more accurately the Confederate Battle Flag, as most Americans wouldn't know the confederate flag if they fell over it - TVLand has announced it will no longer show The Dukes of Hazard, as the car (The General Lee) has the confederate battle flag.
Bubba Watson, who owns the General Lee car from the show, has announced he will paint over the confederate battle flag on its roof.
The latest cry is for buildings / roads / anything you can think of - named after southern sympathizers / slave owners / confederate generals etc - should be renamed.
It's hard to see where this nonsense will stop. Just how far are folks prepared to go in scrubbing out history?
George Washington and Thomas Jefferson were both slave owners. Will renaming Washington DC be the ultimate goal? Is one of the 5 authors - and original drafter - of the Declaration of Independence to be airbrushed out of history?
Those who fly and support the Confederate battle flag claim it is "heritage, not hate", and indeed I know several people who had relatives die fighting for the confederacy.
The problem is that the flag did not reappear until the early 1960s, as a rallying symbol for those opposed to the civil rights movement.
"Our new Government is founded upon exactly the opposite ideas; its foundations are laid, its cornerstone rests, upon the great truth that the negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery, subordination to the superior race, is his natural and normal condition."
That could have been a standard Hitler speech, but it was the Confederate Vice President. The Confederacy is the American analogue as Nazi Germany is for Germany, time for americans to deal with it like the germans have.
Most Americans came to terms with this long ago. It's the Left who are stoking this right now.
But when even Nikki Haley is saying it's time for the Confederate flag to be in a museum rather than daily use...
And now Germany will be excluded from EU deals, apparently. As if they are the only nation who is reluctant to do another deal with Greece. Jesus Christ.
They are not the only ones. But France and Italy are starting to get desperate enough to ignore Germany in the eurocrisis.
They ought to be more worried about becoming the next Greece.
And now Germany will be excluded from EU deals, apparently. As if they are the only nation who is reluctant to do another deal with Greece. Jesus Christ.
They are not the only ones. But France and Italy are starting to get desperate enough to ignore Germany in the eurocrisis.
I don't see it happening, but I guess we'll see. There's been very little outright clamour from the French today on doing a deal with Greece, whereas from Poland, Luxembourg, Slovakia, etc. there has been real signals that they will not support a new deal for Greece.
Conclusion: Greece will continue to issue Euro notes and loans without the consent of the ECB and cannot be stopped. This will continue until they are physically forced to do so or the other countries leave the Eurozone or redenominate. If the other countries do not do this, Greece will wreck the currency.
TLDR version. Greece isn't locked in with Germany: Germany is locked in with Greece
If you're half right this will escalate further than almost anyone is anticipating at this point.
As a matter of interest. Does Greece have enough paper to print all the 20 € notes it will need?
If Greece goes rogue like that how long will it last?
When people say they'll be a resurgence in hard-left opposition to the EU, I ask this: when has the hard-left ever been pro-EU? I still don't see the hard-left being relevant in any case, simply because the EU doesn't rank as an issue which concerns most people. I'm willingly to bet, for all the eurosceptic posturing Labour may indulge in, in the coming months by the time of the referendum, they'll still be backing an IN vote. Anti-Americanism became a thing because we were directly involved in 'American' wars such as Iraq. We are not, in this case directly involved the Greek crisis, and as a result I can see Germanophobia being restricted to small minority of Europhobes who obsess over the EU. The Great British Public don't like the EU; but it's something they don't really think about, nor get passionate about most of time.
Oh please, dream on.
What a convincing argument. That's really won me over, that has.
Is mass immigration important to the British public? Think that is a foregone conclusion don't you? If so then Europe is top of the agenda, something Mike has tried to avoid but I'm afraid that is the reality.
To suggest otherwise is ludicrous.
Mass immigration is important to people, but most people don't think mass immigration = EU. If they did, for a start there would be far more clamour to come out of the EU, especially considering how much UKIP have linked the EU and the immigration issue publically. Secondly, on MORI's index the EU would rank as high as the subject of immigration, among voters too. While you hear many people concerned about the immigration, you rarely hear that followed up by criticism of the EU's role in that from your average person.
Blimey, you really are struggling.
Given that's your response to me, well that's a bit ironic.
And now Germany will be excluded from EU deals, apparently. As if they are the only nation who is reluctant to do another deal with Greece. Jesus Christ.
They are not the only ones. But France and Italy are starting to get desperate enough to ignore Germany in the eurocrisis.
I don't see it happening, but I guess we'll see. There's been very little outright clamour from the French today on doing a deal with Greece, whereas from Poland, Luxembourg, Slovakia, etc. there has been real signals that they will not support a new deal for Greece.
A very good summary of the situation by Forsyth though. Him and Fraser Nelson are a lot of sane than those within the comments' section of the Spectator website, who are are so right wing they'd make even Nigel Farage blush.
Hah! About 5 years ago there was a schism, and the most right wing commentators left to form their own Coffee House - because the rest of the commentators were too left wing
I expect to see some guardianista style hypocrisy over this and the confederate flag tomorrow, maybe from Tories on here
Regarding the Confederate flag - or more accurately the Confederate Battle Flag, as most Americans wouldn't know the confederate flag if they fell over it - TVLand has announced it will no longer show The Dukes of Hazard, as the car (The General Lee) has the confederate battle flag.
Bubba Watson, who owns the General Lee car from the show, has announced he will paint over the confederate battle flag on its roof.
The latest cry is for buildings / roads / anything you can think of - named after southern sympathizers / slave owners / confederate generals etc - should be renamed.
It's hard to see where this nonsense will stop. Just how far are folks prepared to go in scrubbing out history?
George Washington and Thomas Jefferson were both slave owners. Will renaming Washington DC be the ultimate goal? Is one of the 5 authors - and original drafter - of the Declaration of Independence to be airbrushed out of history?
Those who fly and support the Confederate battle flag claim it is "heritage, not hate", and indeed I know several people who had relatives die fighting for the confederacy.
The problem is that the flag did not reappear until the early 1960s, as a rallying symbol for those opposed to the civil rights movement.
"Our new Government is founded upon exactly the opposite ideas; its foundations are laid, its cornerstone rests, upon the great truth that the negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery, subordination to the superior race, is his natural and normal condition."
That could have been a standard Hitler speech, but it was the Confederate Vice President. The Confederacy is the American analogue as Nazi Germany is for Germany, time for americans to deal with it like the germans have.
Most Americans came to terms with this long ago. It's the Left who are stoking this right now.
But when even Nikki Haley is saying it's time for the Confederate flag to be in a museum rather than daily use...
Exactly! Haley's announcement doesn't upset most white southerners - having the flag in a museum reflects its place in history - in the past not the future - while still a symbol of respect rather than sticking it up the nose of those who find it repellent.
The ongoing anti-confederate campaign is ludicrous if taken to its extreme logical conclusion.
And now Germany will be excluded from EU deals, apparently. As if they are the only nation who is reluctant to do another deal with Greece. Jesus Christ.
They are not the only ones. But France and Italy are starting to get desperate enough to ignore Germany in the eurocrisis.
I don't see it happening, but I guess we'll see. There's been very little outright clamour from the French today on doing a deal with Greece, whereas from Poland, Luxembourg, Slovakia, etc. there has been real signals that they will not support a new deal for Greece.
A very good summary of the situation by Forsyth though. Him and Fraser Nelson are a lot of sane than those within the comments' section of the Spectator website, who are are so right wing they'd make even Nigel Farage blush.
Hah! About 5 years ago there was a schism, and the most right wing commentators left to form their own Coffee House - because the rest of the commentators were too left wing
Most Americans came to terms with this long ago. It's the Left who are stoking this right now.
But when even Nikki Haley is saying it's time for the Confederate flag to be in a museum rather than daily use...
Exactly! Haley's announcement doesn't upset most white southerners - having the flag in a museum reflects its place in history - in the past not the future - while still a symbol of respect rather than sticking it up the nose of those who find it repellent.
The ongoing anti-confederate campaign is ludicrous if taken to its extreme logical conclusion.
Possibly, but is the confederate flag on the roof of Boss Hogg's car essential to the story? If not then just photoshop it out or replace it with the stars & stripes or something.
A very good summary of the situation by Forsyth though. Him and Fraser Nelson are a lot of sane than those within the comments' section of the Spectator website, who are are so right wing they'd make even Nigel Farage blush.
Hah! About 5 years ago there was a schism, and the most right wing commentators left to form their own Coffee House - because the rest of the commentators were too left wing
Most Americans came to terms with this long ago. It's the Left who are stoking this right now.
But when even Nikki Haley is saying it's time for the Confederate flag to be in a museum rather than daily use...
Exactly! Haley's announcement doesn't upset most white southerners - having the flag in a museum reflects its place in history - in the past not the future - while still a symbol of respect rather than sticking it up the nose of those who find it repellent.
The ongoing anti-confederate campaign is ludicrous if taken to its extreme logical conclusion.
Possibly, but is the confederate flag on the roof of Boss Hogg's car essential to the story? If not then just photoshop it out or replace it with the stars & stripes or something.
The Dukes of Hazard was a TV show which started in the 1970s. It is of its time.
I always found it strange how many claimed American patriots happily sported the flag of a treasonous army, or celebrate the traitors that led it. The Confederacy should be remembered in history classes and the flag kept in a museum, similar to the flag of apartheid South Africa.
On the WWC: The USA are up 4:0 in under 16 minutes. Damn.
It will make a nice change for the USA to have a real "World Champion" at last.
I've always found it amusing (and just a touch arrogant) that the winners of the Superbowl are hailed "World Chanpions" . (Technically correct to be fair, because nobody else is stupid enough to play the game.)
Most Americans came to terms with this long ago. It's the Left who are stoking this right now.
But when even Nikki Haley is saying it's time for the Confederate flag to be in a museum rather than daily use...
Exactly! Haley's announcement doesn't upset most white southerners - having the flag in a museum reflects its place in history - in the past not the future - while still a symbol of respect rather than sticking it up the nose of those who find it repellent.
The ongoing anti-confederate campaign is ludicrous if taken to its extreme logical conclusion.
Possibly, but is the confederate flag on the roof of Boss Hogg's car essential to the story? If not then just photoshop it out or replace it with the stars & stripes or something.
The Dukes of Hazard was a TV show which started in the 1970s. It is of its time.
Sure, but I don't give a sh1t if they rename the dog in Dambusters or if they change the flag. Neither change alters what the film is trying to achieve
Most Americans came to terms with this long ago. It's the Left who are stoking this right now.
But when even Nikki Haley is saying it's time for the Confederate flag to be in a museum rather than daily use...
Exactly! Haley's announcement doesn't upset most white southerners - having the flag in a museum reflects its place in history - in the past not the future - while still a symbol of respect rather than sticking it up the nose of those who find it repellent.
The ongoing anti-confederate campaign is ludicrous if taken to its extreme logical conclusion.
Possibly, but is the confederate flag on the roof of Boss Hogg's car essential to the story? If not then just photoshop it out or replace it with the stars & stripes or something.
The Dukes of Hazard was a TV show which started in the 1970s. It is of its time.
Are Lyrnd Skind going to have to change all their album covers too now ?
As you say stuff is of it's time, photoshopping the Dukes of Hazard is crackers.
On the WWC: The USA are up 4:0 in under 16 minutes. Damn.
It will make a nice change for the USA to have a real "World Champion" at last.
I've always found it amusing (and just a touch arrogant) that the winners of the Superbowl are hailed "World Chanpions" . (Technically correct to be fair, because nobody else is stupid enough to play the game.)
Well done - you resisted the opportunity to mention the baseball 'World Series', which is probably the most egregious use of the term....
A very good summary of the situation by Forsyth though. Him and Fraser Nelson are a lot of sane than those within the comments' section of the Spectator website, who are are so right wing they'd make even Nigel Farage blush.
Hah! About 5 years ago there was a schism, and the most right wing commentators left to form their own Coffee House - because the rest of the commentators were too left wing
There are people even more right-wing that the commentators on there now?????!!! Bloody hell....
I think it was because Melanie Philips didn't get her contract renewed (i.e. ISRAEL WAS CENSORED!!!!!)*
* for the avoidance of doubt, the bit in capitals was a parody
Talking of Israel.... I noticed today my Sunday dinner spud supplied from Tesco was grown in Israel? Very nice it was too but cant we even grow our own spuds now?
Most Americans came to terms with this long ago. It's the Left who are stoking this right now.
But when even Nikki Haley is saying it's time for the Confederate flag to be in a museum rather than daily use...
Exactly! Haley's announcement doesn't upset most white southerners - having the flag in a museum reflects its place in history - in the past not the future - while still a symbol of respect rather than sticking it up the nose of those who find it repellent.
The ongoing anti-confederate campaign is ludicrous if taken to its extreme logical conclusion.
Possibly, but is the confederate flag on the roof of Boss Hogg's car essential to the story? If not then just photoshop it out or replace it with the stars & stripes or something.
The Dukes of Hazard was a TV show which started in the 1970s. It is of its time.
Sure, but I don't give a sh1t if they rename the dog in Dambusters or if they change the flag. Neither change alters what the film is trying to achieve
What The Dukes of Hazard was trying to achieve was to get the maximum number of eyeballs to watch the show and the commercials in it. There is no deep meaning involved.
On the WWC: The USA are up 4:0 in under 16 minutes. Damn.
It will make a nice change for the USA to have a real "World Champion" at last.
I've always found it amusing (and just a touch arrogant) that the winners of the Superbowl are hailed "World Chanpions" . (Technically correct to be fair, because nobody else is stupid enough to play the game.)
Well done - you resisted the opportunity to mention the baseball 'World Series', which is probably the most egregious use of the term....
Well, I have to admit that other countries DO play baseball and a world championship COULD be arranged for that sport. However I took out my frustration on the gridiron game. As a long-suffering follower of the (hapless) Cowboys, you will understand how I might feel that way .... :-)
Duncan Weldon: Eurogroup have to consider political vs financial contagion. Economics of exit maybe more containable than political fallout of a climbdown.
On the WWC: The USA are up 4:0 in under 16 minutes. Damn.
It will make a nice change for the USA to have a real "World Champion" at last.
I've always found it amusing (and just a touch arrogant) that the winners of the Superbowl are hailed "World Chanpions" . (Technically correct to be fair, because nobody else is stupid enough to play the game.)
Well done - you resisted the opportunity to mention the baseball 'World Series', which is probably the most egregious use of the term....
Well, I have to admit that other countries DO play baseball and a world championship COULD be arranged for that sport. However I took out my frustration on the gridiron game. As a long-suffering follower of the (hapless) Cowboys, you will understand how I might feel that way .... :-)
I am not sure how any referendum can be properly held with so little time for proper examination of the issues. The result is more about emotion and gut reaction rather than detailed consideration of the question. Viewed in that light, this result was pretty much inevitable.
Prediction: the French will call for a second referendum to be held in 6 months time.
The French won't be doing much as they're in the middle of their annual three week period of mourning. It peaked early this year.
Tsipras is well known to be a Game Theory Geek. He has gambled his country's economic future on the premise that a No vote would strengthen his negotiating position. I don't think think he's right. In fact if he's faced down by the EU grandees over the next few days and weeks and it all turn very sour, his electorate will soon see him as a petty con man and swindler.
They should have kept in mind Virgil's prophetic warning, "Beware of Geeks bearing grifts."
Hi stjohn - Great to hear from you. Haven't seen much of you lately on PB.
I think Tsipras thinks the Eurocrats have more to lose if this all goes down than the Greeks have, and that they will therefore compromise. I think he is right.
It is rare that I disagree with Richard N, David H - but I think you've called this one correct Barnesian. Most people think it is Greece vs other Eurozone countries, whereas the game is actually Greece vs Eurocrats, mostly unelected at that. I think Eurocrats have more to lose from a failed project, and so will bail Greece out to some extent.
As usual with the EU, I think they'll leave this till the last minute, and in so doing not be able to avoid market carnage/EU wide depression. Instead, they'll make the worst possible call and delay now, then pay up later, when realising how bad things are going to get.
My favourite point of the thread mentioned that there needs to be moral hazard for lenders too; particularly when it is lenders who managed to cover their own banking systems with earlier bailouts (on which point Robert seems to frequently ignore, instead saying that European banks now own little Greek debt), and lenders who have benefited from a suppressed currency for the last decade... The equal and opposite of this is that Greece has benefited from a stupidly low interest rate for sovereign debt - combined with economic failure, is it any wonder that debt has risen to unsustainable levels?
Conclusion: Greece will continue to issue Euro notes and loans without the consent of the ECB and cannot be stopped. This will continue until they are physically forced to do so or the other countries leave the Eurozone or redenominate. If the other countries do not do this, Greece will wreck the currency.
TLDR version. Greece isn't locked in with Germany: Germany is locked in with Greece
If you're half right this will escalate further than almost anyone is anticipating at this point.
Despite the fact that I abhor his politics, I'm a fan of Paul Mason: put his bias to one side and he writes well and reading him is infomative[1] He asks "who has agency?" Who can physically do something without requiring permission, and what is that "something"? Greece has agency and things will escalate until they are stopped: they won't stop on their own.
Do you know why Chernobyl melted down? They simulated a malfunction to see if the emergency systems would cope. People do really stupid things and everybody goes "oh, that can't go wrong". Janet Daley is convinced[2] that warfare between European nations is inconceivable. She's wrong. Things can and do go horribly wrong, and I don't see anybody with the statesmanship to stop them.
[1] I've made a similar case for Norman Tebbit [2] Before Richard Tyndall steps in, I'm not arguing that the EU is the guarantor of peace and without it, war will result. I'm arguing that warfare is a natural human activity that occurs whenever argument cannot be resolved by consent
I always found it strange how many claimed American patriots happily sported the flag of a treasonous army, or celebrate the traitors that led it. The Confederacy should be remembered in history classes and the flag kept in a museum, similar to the flag of apartheid South Africa.
I was once asked to visit the home of some BNP-supporting constituents to discuss their point of view and those of similarly-minded friends. I decided it was part of the job, so trotted round for a chat, and they had a huge Confederate flag on the wall (no other obvious racist insignia, to be fair).
I absolutely see that there are lots of people who are fond of it just as a part of history, in the same way that we have a statue of Richard the Lionheart without fully realising his less than totally enlightened ecumenical views. But I'm afraid it's been hijacked pretty comprehensively by the nutjobs and as you say is best kept in museums.
On the WWC: The USA are up 4:0 in under 16 minutes. Damn.
It will make a nice change for the USA to have a real "World Champion" at last.
I've always found it amusing (and just a touch arrogant) that the winners of the Superbowl are hailed "World Chanpions" . (Technically correct to be fair, because nobody else is stupid enough to play the game.)
Well done - you resisted the opportunity to mention the baseball 'World Series', which is probably the most egregious use of the term....
Well, I have to admit that other countries DO play baseball and a world championship COULD be arranged for that sport. However I took out my frustration on the gridiron game. As a long-suffering follower of the (hapless) Cowboys, you will understand how I might feel that way .... :-)
I was once asked to visit the home of some BNP-supporting constituents to discuss their point of view and those of similarly-minded friends. I decided it was part of the job, so trotted round for a chat, and they had a huge Confederate flag on the wall (no other obvious racist insignia, to be fair).
I can beat that. I once rented a room from a very nice little old lady. Her son was a bit skinhead-y, and in his room was a full-size Nazi War Ensign (NSFW, by the way). It covered one wall. Gulp.
Comments
Can't have taken much serious money tbh - publicity cash :P
No: 3,408,523
Yes: 2,151,330
Turnout: 62.48%
http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/e/public/index.html?lang=en#{"cls":"level","params":{"level":"epik","id":1}}
The EU is completely useless, they can't solve the eurocrisis for 6 years now, they can't decide what to do with migrants, and they can't even decide who arranged the latest meeting.
I think within a week or so the Greek people will look back at the austerity of the last 5 years more positively, because they will see what the alternative looks like.
A diet of bread and water looks rich when you are starving.
Personally I don't believe the Canadian Tories will go as low as 28.9% as current polls are indicating:
http://www.threehundredeight.com/
Here's a hint: look up the word 'trying'. Once you've understood it, re-read what I wrote.
Some problems do not have a simple solution, and some diseases can only be treated symptomatically while they run their course.
I didn't say the EU will kick them out of the Euro. In fact I 100% guarantee that they won't, for the very good reason that there's no mechanism to do so.
If only that was how it worked... Mass immigration wouldn't have been the disaster it is
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincoln–Douglas_debates
Of course slavery was not unlike mass immigration, beneficial for exploitative elite but disastrous for society as a whole.
Jeanette Minns 43 MINUTES AGO
Jacopo Barigazzi reports: It’s on the insistence of Italy and other countries that European Council President Donald Tusk has announced a eurozone summit on Tuesday evening to discuss the situation after the referendum in Greece. That’s according to sources close to the Italian premier, quoted on TV news channel La7 in its live coverage on the Greek vote.
According to these sources, Italy and other unspecified member states would have reacted negatively to news that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the French president François Hollande will meet on Monday to talk about the next steps. Rome would have stressed that a situation so difficult cannot be discussed in a bilateral meeting and that it would need a summit of European leaders.
Also the main opposition leader is extremely popular and though as very competent.
Add on top of that a Canadian economic recession since the start of the year and you can see all the ingredients of a government defeat.
The Greeks have forgotten the lesson of Admiral Byng.
Angela Merkel has not.
Take Con 31%
NDP 30%
Liberal 26%
I mean that is within the bounds of the "MoE" of the polling...
At long last austerity has been booted into the long grass & Germans will have to pay up for their catastrophic failings to the Greek people
Just one problem Danny......the German people....
Going to useless meetings and spending the whole day with nothing to say, with no documents to read and no one having a clue why you are there, but simply being forced to participate till death (standard eurogroup meetings) is not trying, it's lunacy.
The EU has never ever tried to solve any problem in it's history, only to shove the problem under the carpet or to kick the can after the next election and hope no one notices.
The pain for Greece will be unbelievable- but well they got what they voted for.
There are three reasons why Berlin won’t want to back down from this position [not interested in further negotiations with Athens or a new bailout deal].. First, German public opinion is—like public opinion in a lot of Eurozone countries—hostile to sending more money to Greece. Politically, another bailout—let alone debt relief—would be hard to sell to German voters or pass through the German parliament. Second, the Germans fear that offering Syriza better terms would encourage more southern European countries to elect anti-austerity, left-wing parties in the hope of wrestling concessions out of the Eurozone and the European Central Bank. With elections in Spain later this year, the last thing they want to do, is to do anything that will boots Podemos. Finally, the German government simply no longer trusts Syriza and the Greek government. It simply won’t believe any commitments that Tsipras makes now.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/07/greece-says-no-will-germany-now-try-and-kick-it-out-of-the-euro/
I can see loads of bilateral deals between France and Italy on one side and Greece on the other to exclude the Germans.
* Greece does not want to leave the Euro
* Greece will not leave the Euro voluntarily
* Greece cannot be forced to leave the Euro by the courts
* There are procedural means whereby Greece can be eased out (the other 18 meeting in a separate room, Greece's vote simply being ignored, see previous posts for the list) but they require unanimity amongst the others
* Greece has physical plates and a printing press
* Greece can also make the Bank of Greece issue unlimited loans to the Greek banks without the consent of the ECB.
Conclusion: Greece will continue to issue Euro notes and loans without the consent of the ECB and cannot be stopped. This will continue until they are physically forced to do so or the other countries leave the Eurozone or redenominate. If the other countries do not do this, Greece will wreck the currency.
TLDR version. Greece isn't locked in with Germany: Germany is locked in with Greece.
Precedent: This is how the roublezone collapsed, with Latvia=Germany and Russia=Greece.
In Its Worst Hour, Greece Overtakes Italy as Top Destination for Refugees
There's been a huge influx of Syrian refugees
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/in-its-worst-hour-greece-overtakes-italy-as-top-destination-for-refugees
To suggest otherwise is ludicrous.
@AndyJS, I think @rcs1000 noted that the Greeks themselves will pull the trigger, when they end up printing Drachmas. Germany won't have to do anything.
https://youtu.be/NUHk2RSMCS8
While you hear many people concerned about the immigration, you rarely hear that followed up by criticism of the EU's role in that from your average person.
But France and Italy are starting to get desperate enough to ignore Germany in the eurocrisis.
If Greece goes rogue like that how long will it last?
And with that goodnight.
http://www.coffeehousewall.co.uk/
The ongoing anti-confederate campaign is ludicrous if taken to its extreme logical conclusion.
Goodnight Speedy. There are people even more right-wing than the commentators on there now?????!!! Bloody hell....
@AndyJS I thought the USA would win, but not by this much....and there's more to come....
* for the avoidance of doubt, the bit in capitals was a parody
I've always found it amusing (and just a touch arrogant) that the winners of the Superbowl are hailed "World Chanpions" . (Technically correct to be fair, because nobody else is stupid enough to play the game.)
As you say stuff is of it's time, photoshopping the Dukes of Hazard is crackers.
Registered 9.742.748
Reporting 99,06 %
Voted 62,46 %
Invalid/Blank 5,80 %
no 61,32 %
yes 38,68 %
All orange.....
http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/dyn1/e/map.png?_dc=1436138926975
Goodnight
" Greeky Bum Time"
Definitely goodnight this time.
However I took out my frustration on the gridiron game. As a long-suffering follower of the (hapless) Cowboys, you will understand how I might feel that way .... :-)
Admiral Byng.....
"Why the Yes campaign failed in Greece
Tsipras’s opponents made serial misjudgments, from the petty to the monumental"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b7ea4b6c-21a2-11e5-aa5a-398b2169cf79.html#axzz3f40wyU54
USA 4-1 Japan
It is a wonderful glorious production. I can't wait to read the Mantel books.
Wouldn't it be odd if any other country glorified its slaveholder traitors?
Isn't it odd that the flag reappeared around the time of the Kennedy/Johnson presidencies?
As usual with the EU, I think they'll leave this till the last minute, and in so doing not be able to avoid market carnage/EU wide depression. Instead, they'll make the worst possible call and delay now, then pay up later, when realising how bad things are going to get.
My favourite point of the thread mentioned that there needs to be moral hazard for lenders too; particularly when it is lenders who managed to cover their own banking systems with earlier bailouts (on which point Robert seems to frequently ignore, instead saying that European banks now own little Greek debt), and lenders who have benefited from a suppressed currency for the last decade... The equal and opposite of this is that Greece has benefited from a stupidly low interest rate for sovereign debt - combined with economic failure, is it any wonder that debt has risen to unsustainable levels?
Do you know why Chernobyl melted down? They simulated a malfunction to see if the emergency systems would cope. People do really stupid things and everybody goes "oh, that can't go wrong". Janet Daley is convinced[2] that warfare between European nations is inconceivable. She's wrong. Things can and do go horribly wrong, and I don't see anybody with the statesmanship to stop them.
[1] I've made a similar case for Norman Tebbit
[2] Before Richard Tyndall steps in, I'm not arguing that the EU is the guarantor of peace and without it, war will result. I'm arguing that warfare is a natural human activity that occurs whenever argument cannot be resolved by consent
It can't be worse than that, surely?
I absolutely see that there are lots of people who are fond of it just as a part of history, in the same way that we have a statue of Richard the Lionheart without fully realising his less than totally enlightened ecumenical views. But I'm afraid it's been hijacked pretty comprehensively by the nutjobs and as you say is best kept in museums.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Baseball_Classic