politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris reminds us once again why the normal rules of politic

kle4 said:

Just seen this news:

Major restoration of the Houses of Parliament without moving MPs and peers out would cost £5.7bn and take 32 years, a report says.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33184160

Bloody hell! I'm not actually opposed to spending plenty of money restoring the building, and obviously without moving them out en masse it would take quite a long time (I think the longest I'd previously seen estimated was something like 20 years), but 32 years?

I guess I'm reluctantly more in favour of the 6 year absence £3.5bn option in that case (as much as I do not like London, I don't like the idea of just putting parliament somewhere else).

kle4 said:

Just seen this news:

Major restoration of the Houses of Parliament without moving MPs and peers out would cost £5.7bn and take 32 years, a report says.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33184160

Bloody hell! I'm not actually opposed to spending plenty of money restoring the building, and obviously without moving them out en masse it would take quite a long time (I think the longest I'd previously seen estimated was something like 20 years), but 32 years?

I guess I'm reluctantly more in favour of the 6 year absence £3.5bn option in that case (as much as I do not like London, I don't like the idea of just putting parliament somewhere else).

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. P, Cameron should tell her to bugger off.

RobD said:

kle4 said:

Just seen this news:

Major restoration of the Houses of Parliament without moving MPs and peers out would cost £5.7bn and take 32 years, a report says.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33184160

Bloody hell! I'm not actually opposed to spending plenty of money restoring the building, and obviously without moving them out en masse it would take quite a long time (I think the longest I'd previously seen estimated was something like 20 years), but 32 years?

I guess I'm reluctantly more in favour of the 6 year absence £3.5bn option in that case (as much as I do not like London, I don't like the idea of just putting parliament somewhere else).

I hear there is a parliament building in Strasbourg which is currently significantly underused. An option for decant?

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Scotland First Minister @NicolaSturgeon writes to PM demanding re-think over "peverse" decision to scrap wind farm subsidies

Scott_P said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. P, Cameron should tell her to bugger off.

I suspect that may form the core of any repsonse

@BBCNormanS: Scot First Minister @NicolaSturgeon warns ending wind farm subsidy cd cost consumers up to £3 billion

The SNP and sums; what are the chances...

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. P, Cameron should tell her to bugger off.

Tim_B said:

Scott_P said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. P, Cameron should tell her to bugger off.

I suspect that may form the core of any repsonse

@BBCNormanS: Scot First Minister @NicolaSturgeon warns ending wind farm subsidy cd cost consumers up to £3 billion

The SNP and sums; what are the chances...

I wonder where Nicola Sturgeon thinks subsidies come from. Maybe it's "the government's money"?

Tim_B said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, host it in Leeds, and force politicians to be mauled by disgruntled Yorkshire audiences on a regular basis.

That took me right back to those hilarious fake Eddie Waring commentaries Graeme Garden used to do on "I'm Sorry I'll Read That Again", particularly in their take off on Knock out.

Dair said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Scotland First Minister @NicolaSturgeon writes to PM demanding re-think over "peverse" decision to scrap wind farm subsidies

Given that these subsidies are one of the very few benefits Scotland gets from the National Infrastructure Plan (cost to Scotland over £3bn per annum, benefit less than £200m per annum), it is indeed perverse.

Another own goal for Cameron.

And terrible news for consumers facing even more high cost electric reliance on nuclear in future instead of cheap and getting cheaper wind power.

Tim_B said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, host it in Leeds, and force politicians to be mauled by disgruntled Yorkshire audiences on a regular basis.

That took me right back to those hilarious fake Eddie Waring commentaries Graeme Garden used to do on "I'm Sorry I'll Read That Again", particularly in their take off on Knock out.

Dair said:

Scott_P said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. P, Cameron should tell her to bugger off.

I suspect that may form the core of any repsonse

@BBCNormanS: Scot First Minister @NicolaSturgeon warns ending wind farm subsidy cd cost consumers up to £3 billion

The SNP and sums; what are the chances...

They have their sums right.

As usually you are numerically illiterate.

The cost of the vast majority of the UKs generation infrastructure has never been paid for by consumers of electricity. The coal stations and previous generations of nuclear were all paid for from general taxation and only running costs used to price consumption.

Whether it is coal, nuclear or wind, new capacity will have to be built. It is sensible to subsidise and promote by far the cheapest Marginal Cost option - and that is Wind.

Tim_B said:

Putting my pedant hat on, the general term for people who don't 'get' mathematics is 'innumerate'.

Scott_P said:

Tim_B said:

Putting my pedant hat on, the general term for people who don't 'get' mathematics is 'innumerate'.

And the Scottish term is Nationalist

RobD said:

(Is 'turnipist' even a word?)

Anorak said:

Dair said:

Scott_P said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. P, Cameron should tell her to bugger off.

I suspect that may form the core of any repsonse

@BBCNormanS: Scot First Minister @NicolaSturgeon warns ending wind farm subsidy cd cost consumers up to £3 billion

The SNP and sums; what are the chances...

They have their sums right.

As usually you are numerically illiterate.

The cost of the vast majority of the UKs generation infrastructure has never been paid for by consumers of electricity. The coal stations and previous generations of nuclear were all paid for from general taxation and only running costs used to price consumption.

Whether it is coal, nuclear or wind, new capacity will have to be built. It is sensible to subsidise and promote by far the cheapest Marginal Cost option - and that is Wind.

That was then. There's just not enough money for that sort of thing any more. Unless it's a new railway into London, obviously.

The marginal cost of nuclear is only a teeny bit higher, and you can have then even when there is no wind.

Dair said:

Anorak said:

Dair said:

Scott_P said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. P, Cameron should tell her to bugger off.

I suspect that may form the core of any repsonse

@BBCNormanS: Scot First Minister @NicolaSturgeon warns ending wind farm subsidy cd cost consumers up to £3 billion

The SNP and sums; what are the chances...

They have their sums right.

As usually you are numerically illiterate.

The cost of the vast majority of the UKs generation infrastructure has never been paid for by consumers of electricity. The coal stations and previous generations of nuclear were all paid for from general taxation and only running costs used to price consumption.

Whether it is coal, nuclear or wind, new capacity will have to be built. It is sensible to subsidise and promote by far the cheapest Marginal Cost option - and that is Wind.

That was then. There's just not enough money for that sort of thing any more. Unless it's a new railway into London, obviously.

The marginal cost of nuclear is only a teeny bit higher, and you can have then even when there is no wind.

The problem with nuclear (regardless of safety which is generally overplayed but in small landmass countries should be considered) is that the Decommissioning costs more than double the capital outlay.

The true solution (and it is expensive short term) is microgeneration backed up with some more pumped storage and part-time gas generation. Smart countries would be filling up with things like this

http://img.xcitefun.net/users/2015/01/371076,xcitefun-wind-solar-lights-3.jpg

But sensible, long term decisions tend to be an alien concept in the UK.

Anorak said:

Dair said:

The problem with nuclear (regardless of safety which is generally overplayed but in small landmass countries should be considered) is that the Decommissioning costs more than double the capital outlay.

The true solution (and it is expensive short term) is microgeneration backed up with some more pumped storage and part-time gas generation. Smart countries would be filling up with things like this

http://img.xcitefun.net/users/2015/01/371076,xcitefun-wind-solar-lights-3.jpg

But sensible, long term decisions tend to be an alien concept in the UK.

Decommissioning costs of first generation plants, probably. New builds? Not so much.

Anyway, according to you, costs borne by the taxpayer are an irrelevance as all we need to do is look at the marginal cost. Make your mind up, old bean.

Dair said:

RobD said:

Dair said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Scotland First Minister @NicolaSturgeon writes to PM demanding re-think over "peverse" decision to scrap wind farm subsidies

Given that these subsidies are one of the very few benefits Scotland gets from the National Infrastructure Plan (cost to Scotland over £3bn per annum, benefit less than £200m per annum), it is indeed perverse.

Another own goal for Cameron.

And terrible news for consumers facing even more high cost electric reliance on nuclear in future instead of cheap and getting cheaper wind power.

If the subsidies are costing Scotland net £2.8bn, why is it an own goal for him to scrap them?

The National Infrastructure Plan costs Scotland £3bn. This is substantially more than wind subsidies. Wind subsidies are one of the very few ways Scotland gets even than shabby £200m back.

Dair said:

Anorak said:

Dair said:

The problem with nuclear (regardless of safety which is generally overplayed but in small landmass countries should be considered) is that the Decommissioning costs more than double the capital outlay.

The true solution (and it is expensive short term) is microgeneration backed up with some more pumped storage and part-time gas generation. Smart countries would be filling up with things like this

http://img.xcitefun.net/users/2015/01/371076,xcitefun-wind-solar-lights-3.jpg

But sensible, long term decisions tend to be an alien concept in the UK.

Decommissioning costs of first generation plants, probably. New builds? Not so much.

Anyway, according to you, costs borne by the taxpayer are an irrelevance as all we need to do is look at the marginal cost. Make your mind up, old bean.

No, they do need considered.

The problem is that the press (and the anti-Wind morons) create a misconception by calling the cost of building turbines included in electricity bills as a "Green Tax". It is not a green tax, it is a new way of pricing the cost of infrastructure and artificially makes wind look more expensive than Coal where the infrastructure costs are not on the bill *at all*.

I have absolutely no problem with changing to a price structure where investment is in the bill. Just not misrepresenting it.

kle4 said:

With all this Waterloo talk around today, it made me think of something I was told recently, that Napoleon IV died fighting for the British in the Anglo-Zulu war. Strange turns families can take.

Scott_P said:

Tim_B said:

I could actually make money by leasing one. But the car is so impractical that it is pointless. Its range is less than a daily commute in this part of the world.

So lease it and leave it in the garage for 2 years. And no deductible for wear and tear

Anorak said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

Tim_B said:

Putting my pedant hat on, the general term for people who don't 'get' mathematics is 'innumerate'.

And the Scottish term is Nationalist

I thought it was Loyalist? (Is 'turnipist' even a word?)

Natamatician?

Bond_James_Bond said:

I struggle to identify anyone credible saying Grexit is either necessary or a good idea.

Tim_B said:

kle4 said:

With all this Waterloo talk around today, it made me think of something I was told recently, that Napoleon IV died fighting for the British in the Anglo-Zulu war. Strange turns families can take.

Indeed - Napoleon XIV had a hit in the 60s with "They're coming to take me away"

Sean_F said:

The Danish exit poll projects 89 seats for the centre-right, 86 for the centre-left.

DR's rival TV2 has called the election for Helle Thorning-Schmidt and her allies, giving them 87 Danish seats compared to 88 for the opposition, which it predicts is enough to give her another term once seats from Greenland and the Faroe Islands are added.

Bond_James_Bond said:

Anorak said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

I struggle to identify anyone credible saying Grexit is either necessary or a good idea.

Does the chief economist at Berenberg count as credible?
http://www.cityam.com/218224/its-central-bank-warns-painful-euro-exit-would-greek-default-necessarily-lead-grexit

That scenario is what I reckon will not happen. Greece will indeed fail to pay the money at some point, but this will be by prior arrangement, i.e. a managed default.

If European politicians are asked to choose between writing off a few billion, and writing off ever-closer union by allowing default and Grexit, I would think they would choose the former.

Greece is 2% of the EU economy. Not exactly a major component. The debts are unpayable by Greece but not massive in the light of the EU as a whole.

AndyJS said:

Danish TV live stream:

https://www.dr.dk/tv/live/event/folketingsvalg-2015-2#!/

richardDodd said:

Has the Pope gone completely bonkers..

Daniel Hannan, the British Conservative MEP who was in Denmark on Wednesday to help the campaign had congratulated the [eurosceptic] Danish People's Party on its result. "I'm delighted by the advance of our sister party, the Danish People's Party, as well as of the eurosceptic Liberal Alliance," he told The Local by text message. "Danes plainly remembered who wanted them to join the euro and who kept them out."

AndyJS said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AndyJS said:

Danish TV live stream:

https://www.dr.dk/tv/live/event/folketingsvalg-2015-2#!/

How's you Danish Andy?

I think I know what the Danish "exit poll" means, though...

Not particularly good unfortunately. Plenty of graphics to look at though.

AndyJS said:

I wasn't aware the DPP was a sister party of the Tories:

http://www.thelocal.dk/20150618/live-denmark-goes-to-the-polls

"20.27pm Daniel Hannan, the British Conservative MEP who was in Denmark on Wednesday to help the
campaign had congratulated the Danish People's Party on its result. "I'm delighted by the advance of our sister party, the Danish People's Party, as well as of the eurosceptic Liberal Alliance," he told The Local by text message. "Danes plainly remembered who wanted them to join the euro and who kept them out.""

MyBurningEars said:

(snip)
Moreover, from which Great Events (conflicts, revolutions, riots, disasters, technological or sporting firsts) are eyewitness accounts not just written, but recorded? TFOAN has some interesting pages on last survivors of historical events, last surviving European veterans by war, and a rather imposing list for all conflicts.

Often the final survivors played but peripheral roles, may never have reached an actual battlefield or even fired a shot in anger if they did. Yet it's interesting there were survivors of the French Revolution about in the 1880s, and of the Napoleonic Wars and War of 1812 to the turn of the century. The Texas Revolution and Bear Flag Revolt a few years later still. For comparison, the oldest surviving phonographs basically date from the 1880s (with the odd earlier recordings on tinfoil or phonautograph being exceptionally difficult to replay), but I doubt a "grunt's-eye-view of oral history" was one of the top priorities for the earliest recordists.

Going further, for what events do we have first-hand testimony on-screen (film or TV footage)? The last survivors of the Crimean War and War of Italian Unification were still around in the 1930s. The Zulu War, The Paris Commune, Franco-Prussian War and the US Civil War can take us through to the 40s and 50s. The Boer War, in theory, up to 1993. I've certainly seen and been very moved by TV interviews with WWI survivors and Russian Revolutionaries, and heard audio of US Civil War vets (and former slaves). Just how far back can we go?

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Scott_P said:

@robindbrant: internal @UKIP email seen by BBC from senior fig ordering @SuzanneEvans1 frozen out after 'very divisive' comments http://t.co/QDMsIKecLI

Up there with the all time stupidest political decisions. To throw away their best presenter and the person who produced a coherent manifesto. Madness. I hope after a break, the Conservatives are able to attract her back.

MyBurningEars said:

JosiasJessop said:

Interesting questions. When it comes to images, what about sketches down by everyday soldiers in the pre-photography era, or trench-art style goods (e.g. a building in Southampton has graffiti from when French prisoners were held within it).

As an aside, there's a famous TV segment with a person who was in the theatre when Lincoln was shot. I think Plato linked to it once.

In terms of physical artefacts, I understand (in the broadest sense, and fuelled only by occasional subjection to antique-porn TV) that French POWs in England made a lot of crafts-stuff to sell to the locals (model ships and so on), many of which survive.

There is medieval graffiti in many a church, and some cracking stuff at the Tower of London

MyBurningEars said:

dr_spyn said:

@MyBurningEars N A M Roger's account of The Georgian Navy which covered the 18th Century suggested that printed recall notices were used, and enough of the crew were able to read them. Such notices were a comparatively effective way of communication.

That's very interesting. Wonder if any of them wrote up their memoirs. By the 19th century there's certainly some interesting material (not just from the navy, but also e.g. on whaling).