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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris reminds us once again why the normal rules of politic

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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    DPP now projected to get 22% compared to 20% for Venstre.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    AndyJS said:

    Danish TV putting the DPP on 34% in Tinglev, up 20 points on the last election.

    https://twitter.com/ssoendergaard/status/611610334172971008

    Hm... the exit polls showed the overall result touch and go despite a rise from 12 to 18% in the DPP vote. That part seems likely to be achived, but the wider question still unanswered.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,874

    Nice BBC story about Scots at Waterloo and the first-hand accounts they left of the battle. Plus delightful, sub-Wilfred-Owen poetry. All left me wondering the type of question the PB-brainhive might be good at:

    What are the earliest battles we have "everyman" eye-witnesses for? We have accounts of the Battle of Hastings, but nowt from the point of view of Edric The English Archer.

    Moreover, from which Great Events (conflicts, revolutions, riots, disasters, technological or sporting firsts) are eyewitness accounts not just written, but recorded? TFOAN has some interesting pages on last survivors of historical events, last surviving European veterans by war, and a rather imposing list for all conflicts.

    Often the final survivors played but peripheral roles, may never have reached an actual battlefield or even fired a shot in anger if they did. Yet it's interesting there were survivors of the French Revolution about in the 1880s, and of the Napoleonic Wars and War of 1812 to the turn of the century. The Texas Revolution and Bear Flag Revolt a few years later still. For comparison, the oldest surviving phonographs basically date from the 1880s (with the odd earlier recordings on tinfoil or phonautograph being exceptionally difficult to replay), but I doubt a "grunt's-eye-view of oral history" was one of the top priorities for the earliest recordists.

    Going further, for what events do we have first-hand testimony on-screen (film or TV footage)? The last survivors of the Crimean War and War of Italian Unification were still around in the 1930s. The Zulu War, The Paris Commune, Franco-Prussian War and the US Civil War can take us through to the 40s and 50s. The Boer War, in theory, up to 1993. I've certainly seen and been very moved by TV interviews with WWI survivors and Russian Revolutionaries, and heard audio of US Civil War vets (and former slaves). Just how far back can we go?

    The best is James Lee Milne recounting meeting a very old lady in the 1920s, who told him "my first husband's first wife's first husband knew Cromwell very well, and said he was a much-maligned man."
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    So, despite being voted down in the Commons, we are still going to have 16-17 y/o votes?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3130238/Sixteen-seventeen-year-olds-certain-vote-EU-referendum-plans-hatched-Lords.html
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    AndyJS said:

    DPP now projected to get 22% compared to 20% for Venstre.

    Does that mean Rasmussen (L)'s leadership of the coalition is in doubt? How does it work?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,233
    AndyJS said:

    New Danish projection puts blue bloc on 92 compared to 83 for the red bloc. Another victory for Cameron if so.

    What is it with polls and underestimating the right?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,874
    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    @MyBurningEars N A M Roger's account of The Georgian Navy which covered the 18th Century suggested that printed recall notices were used, and enough of the crew were able to read them. Such notices were a comparatively effective way of communication.

    That's very interesting. Wonder if any of them wrote up their memoirs. By the 19th century there's certainly some interesting material (not just from the navy, but also e.g. on whaling).
    I'll cross check it at some point this evening.

    http://www.amazon.com/The-Wooden-World-Anatomy-Georgian/dp/0393314693
    A fair number of medieval monks were retired soldiers, who could give first-hand accounts to monastic historians.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited 2015 18
    The Smithsonian put this recording on youtube of Confederate veterans performing the rebel yell. But judging from the accompanying article, most of the surviving footage was of reunion festivities and the surviving interviews are scarce, brief and undertaken by newsmen rather than oral historians.

    (The audio oral history for the US Civil War seems to be much better.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6jSqt39vFM
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,236


    As an aside, there's a famous TV segment with a person who was in the theatre when Lincoln was shot. I think Plato linked to it once.

    Got it, it's Samuel J. Seymour - and here's the youtube clip. Don't think they give out prizes like that anymore!

    And here's the newspaper cutting which the TV researchers had picked up on.

    Sadly as a witness he couldn't remember much about the incident ... except that he was very concerned for the health of Booth, who had jumped off the balcony and hurt his leg. He hadn't realised that the president had been shot.
    Thanks for that. There's a rather funny one a few pages in: "Teen-age gangs: a great reporter reveals the truth about girl gangs and how they co-operate with the boys".

    Things haven't changed much in 61 years ...
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    @ Sean F

    Let's see. 1920 was 262 years after Cromwell's death. Say she was 110 at the time, takes us back to 1810. Say her husband was 40 years older than her, 1770. Say his wife was 40 years older than him, 1730. And her husband was 40 years older than her, 1690. Still doesn't get the birth of the oldest within 30 years of Cromwell's death in 1658. Hmm.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited 2015 18
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    New Danish projection puts blue bloc on 92 compared to 83 for the red bloc. Another victory for Cameron if so.

    What is it with polls and underestimating the right?
    Now 95/80, moving all the time. Another disaster for both the exit pollsters and the left. Okay, that's a bit strong, but it's poor all the same.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,874
    MTimT said:

    @ Sean F

    Let's see. 1920 was 262 years after Cromwell's death. Say she was 110 at the time, takes us back to 1810. Say her husband was 40 years older than her, 1770. Say his wife was 40 years older than him, 1730. And her husband was 40 years older than her, 1690. Still doesn't get the birth of the oldest within 30 years of Cromwell's death in 1658. Hmm.

    I think it's based on a series of marriages between teens and people in their late 80s.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    New Danish projection puts blue bloc on 92 compared to 83 for the red bloc. Another victory for Cameron if so.

    What is it with polls and underestimating the right?
    Now 95/80, moving all the time. Another disaster for both the exit pollsters and the left. Okay, that's a bit strong, but it's poor all the same.
    Do you know Andy if Dahl could be PM by the end of the night?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    DPP now projected to get 22% compared to 20% for Venstre.

    Does that mean Rasmussen (L)'s leadership of the coalition is in doubt? How does it work?
    The prospective PM remains Rasmussen even if DPP get more votes. Something to do with keeping the coalition of 4 parties together.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    RobD said:

    So, despite being voted down in the Commons, we are still going to have 16-17 y/o votes?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3130238/Sixteen-seventeen-year-olds-certain-vote-EU-referendum-plans-hatched-Lords.html

    Sounds like a scare story. Presumably, if the Lords amend the bill, the Tories can remove the amendments in the second reading, and so on.

    PB constitutional lawyers?
  • rullkorullko Posts: 161
    So how can you f*ck off if you're dead?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    MTimT said:

    RobD said:

    So, despite being voted down in the Commons, we are still going to have 16-17 y/o votes?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3130238/Sixteen-seventeen-year-olds-certain-vote-EU-referendum-plans-hatched-Lords.html

    Sounds like a scare story. Presumably, if the Lords amend the bill, the Tories can remove the amendments in the second reading, and so on.

    PB constitutional lawyers?
    It's not a second reading, but yes, it can be the subject of ping-pong.

    http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/passage-bill/commons/coms-consideration-of-amendments/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    So, despite being voted down in the Commons, we are still going to have 16-17 y/o votes?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3130238/Sixteen-seventeen-year-olds-certain-vote-EU-referendum-plans-hatched-Lords.html

    Why are 96 year-olds so keen on giving the vote to 16 year olds?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Sean_F said:

    MTimT said:

    @ Sean F

    Let's see. 1920 was 262 years after Cromwell's death. Say she was 110 at the time, takes us back to 1810. Say her husband was 40 years older than her, 1770. Say his wife was 40 years older than him, 1730. And her husband was 40 years older than her, 1690. Still doesn't get the birth of the oldest within 30 years of Cromwell's death in 1658. Hmm.

    I think it's based on a series of marriages between teens and people in their late 80s.
    It would have to be that for the sums to work. But then it is a cheat, as the strong tacit implication is that the lady in question is offering some first hand experience, i.e. that she knew her first husband's first wife's first husband, which she clearly could not have.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    New Danish projection puts blue bloc on 92 compared to 83 for the red bloc. Another victory for Cameron if so.

    What is it with polls and underestimating the right?
    Now 95/80, moving all the time. Another disaster for both the exit pollsters and the left. Okay, that's a bit strong, but it's poor all the same.
    Do you know Andy if Dahl could be PM by the end of the night?
    No I think it's Rasmussen if the blue bloc wins, whatever the distribution of seats.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,958
    To quote the world-renowned scientist Lord Winston, ‘Let me say firmly: I think his views are lunatic’.
    http://health.spectator.co.uk/roll-of-shame-mps-who-back-homeopathy-fan-david-tredinnick-for-chair-of-commons-health-committee/
    Quite a few right wingers on that list. Is there a correlation between right wing politicians and anti-science beliefs such as belief in homeopathy and climate change scepticism?
    But what is a medical doctor, Dr Poulter, doing on that list
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    New Danish projection puts blue bloc on 92 compared to 83 for the red bloc. Another victory for Cameron if so.

    What is it with polls and underestimating the right?
    Now 95/80, moving all the time. Another disaster for both the exit pollsters and the left. Okay, that's a bit strong, but it's poor all the same.
    Do you know Andy if Dahl could be PM by the end of the night?
    No I think it's Rasmussen if the blue bloc wins, whatever the distribution of seats.
    Yeah I saw your post seconds after my own! Nevertheless I may surrender some pennies so I don't have to worry about the vagrities of the system.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited 2015 18
    MTimT said:

    Sean_F said:

    MTimT said:

    @ Sean F

    Let's see. 1920 was 262 years after Cromwell's death. Say she was 110 at the time, takes us back to 1810. Say her husband was 40 years older than her, 1770. Say his wife was 40 years older than him, 1730. And her husband was 40 years older than her, 1690. Still doesn't get the birth of the oldest within 30 years of Cromwell's death in 1658. Hmm.

    I think it's based on a series of marriages between teens and people in their late 80s.
    It would have to be that for the sums to work. But then it is a cheat, as the strong tacit implication is that the lady in question is offering some first hand experience, i.e. that she knew her first husband's first wife's first husband, which she clearly could not have.
    From an piece by Simon Jenkins:

    Oliver the Timelord

    A man of my acquaintance was addressed, when a child, on the subject of Oliver Cromwell. The speaker was a lady of 91. She told him sternly never to speak ill of the great man. She went on: "My husband's first wife's first husband knew Oliver Cromwell - and liked him well." It was an admonition my friend has not forgotten.

    At first hearing, the story is unbelievable. This was not a great-grandfather who knew a great-grandson. Here at the dawn of the new century is someone able to recall a single matrimonial generation linked directly with the mid-17th century*. I know of no comparable leap of history, no domestic arrangement that can gather dynasties, revolutions and empires so effortlessly in its embrace. We can wipe out civilisations in a flash, yet extend the experience of a single human imagination over a third of a millennium. What a thing is man (and in this case woman).

    *The remark was made in 1923 by a lady born in 1832. At the age of 16 she had married an 80-year-old man named Henry. Sixty-four years earlier, in 1784, the young Henry had, for reasons obscure, married an 82-year-old woman. Her first marriage, in 1720, was to an 80-year-old who had served Cromwell before his death in 1658.


    I remain skeptical. But not completely implausible. What adds to the fascination is that James Lee Milne who heard this story lived until 1998!

    A rather more traditional "how many handshakes into the past" game was played out on Crooked Timber a few years back.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,739
    rullko said:

    So how can you f*ck off if you're dead?

    You've never heard of Zombies?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,693
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    DPP now projected to get 22% compared to 20% for Venstre.

    Does that mean Rasmussen (L)'s leadership of the coalition is in doubt? How does it work?
    The prospective PM remains Rasmussen even if DPP get more votes. Something to do with keeping the coalition of 4 parties together.
    That is because the other blue parties support Rasmussen.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Dair said:

    RobD said:

    Dair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Scotland First Minister @NicolaSturgeon writes to PM demanding re-think over "peverse" decision to scrap wind farm subsidies

    Given that these subsidies are one of the very few benefits Scotland gets from the National Infrastructure Plan (cost to Scotland over £3bn per annum, benefit less than £200m per annum), it is indeed perverse.

    Another own goal for Cameron.

    And terrible news for consumers facing even more high cost electric reliance on nuclear in future instead of cheap and getting cheaper wind power.
    If the subsidies are costing Scotland net £2.8bn, why is it an own goal for him to scrap them?
    The National Infrastructure Plan costs Scotland £3bn. This is substantially more than wind subsidies. Wind subsidies are one of the very few ways Scotland gets even than shabby £200m back.
    So how do you think EU finances work ? Take from the wealthy Scottish nation and redistribute in poor southern Europe?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,739

    New Thread

  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited 2015 18

    To quote the world-renowned scientist Lord Winston, ‘Let me say firmly: I think his views are lunatic’.
    http://health.spectator.co.uk/roll-of-shame-mps-who-back-homeopathy-fan-david-tredinnick-for-chair-of-commons-health-committee/
    Quite a few right wingers on that list. Is there a correlation between right wing politicians and anti-science beliefs such as belief in homeopathy and climate change scepticism?
    But what is a medical doctor, Dr Poulter, doing on that list

    There are anti-science views on both sides of the political spectrum. The religious right has scientifically-unsound objections to evolution and research on stem cells; the eco-left has scientifically-unsound objections to GMOs, genetic engineering and vaccination.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Scott_P said:

    @robindbrant: internal @UKIP email seen by BBC from senior fig ordering @SuzanneEvans1 frozen out after 'very divisive' comments http://t.co/QDMsIKecLI

    Up there with the all time stupidest political decisions. To throw away their best presenter and the person who produced a coherent manifesto. Madness. I hope after a break, the Conservatives are able to attract her back.
    I only caught a few minutes of the DP interview earlier, and she was quite good but, perhaps, a little too forthrightly truthful in answers to questions.
    Isn't being forthrightly truthful the UKIP thang?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Disraeli said:

    Dair said:

    Iain Martin @iainmartin1
    Suzanne Evans is the best thing UKIP has going for it. Which means she is being forced out by the Faragists.

    What do the PB Kippers have to say on this?

    I think even they now realise that Nige has killed the Kipper movement stone dead.
    Careful now! These "stone dead" type predictions can backfire. :-)

    In 1995, Robertson said that "Devolution will kill Nationalism stone dead" while he was Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland. (wikipedia)
    Yeah but in this instance Farage is the idiot much like Robertson was then.
  • Blofelds_CatBlofelds_Cat Posts: 154

    Dair said:

    16yos are not children.

    They most certainly are, in practice as well as in most international legal definitions:

    The United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child defines child as "a human being below the age of 18 years unless under the law applicable to the child, majority is attained earlier".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child

    Scotland and a couple of other minor jurisdictions are exceptions to this generally-accepted definition.
    My Mum calls me and my siblings "the children", and I'm only 58
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