politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » STAY likely to win the EU In/Out referendum for the same re
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » STAY likely to win the EU In/Out referendum for the same reason that CON won GE15 – the fear of the unknown
One of the things that the Tory victory on May 7th ensures is that during this parliament there will be an in/out referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU. The question is which way will it go?
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FPT: GeoffM,
"Stodge, Andy Cooke, David Herdson, myself and a few other PBers are members of www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/ where such stories are told."
Interesting. My e-book, A Ever Rolling Stream published a few months back by Wild Wolf, and available from Amazon, looked at the events a hundred years after the Cuban Missile Crisis turned nasty. I envisaged a different world in 2062 but people's character remained the same.
I'll have a look at that website, if I may. Always interesting to see others' views and we know there's never a correct view.
If anything the removal of bits will probably tempt some people from No back to STAY...
Having lived through one of these before...'In' will win.
Just as it did in Scotland.....
GeoffM,
I've joined your alternate history website. Good job I didn't see it before I wrote the book - I'd have given up.
Fear, inertia, contentedness or common sense depending upon how you view it will win the day. At the most leave would be lucky to break through more than 40%.
Nobody voted Lib Dems because they stood for nothing. A vote for Lib Dem was a vote for letting someone else decide who runs the country.
Who is doing that prospectus for the Out campaign? UKIP appears to be more interested in in-fighting than coming up with detailed answers while the answers as to what happens in the case of a Leave vote seems to depend upon who you ask. For starters, will we be in the EFTA or not?
The 'Out' campaign should very quickly try and establish better terms of debate than 'in' vs. 'out'. 'Union' vs. 'Friendship' or something. It needs to look forward to a vision of life beyond the EU. 'Out' is the absence of something, it is a void, a huge well of uncertainty. 'Friendship' implies an ongoing relationship based on mutual respect, but the opportunity to make other friendships as and when the need arises. 'We want to be friends with Europe, but we refuse to to commit to ever closer political union' is a line that most would agree with.
They should do this fast because the 'In' campaign will quickly do it for them - they have a very good record of ignoring decency and the political niceties in order to demonise their opponents - I would expect 'European Seperatists' or something similar to be launched fairly soon. If 'Outers' have already cast themselves as 'Friends of Europe' it will diffuse that situation somewhat.
I also think 'Outers' (or should I say 'Friends'), would do well to aim their message at people who do want to remain in the EU, but who are worried about the consequences of a walkover. 'If you don't send a message now, there may not be another chance'.
"And I have a Kindle copy of it!"
Thank you.
I received my first royalties on it a few weeks ago. The princely sum of £7.65. I think I will take a trip around the world. Blackpool here I come.
PS There's a rather nifty little slide thingy to show then and now pix too.
This is why Out faces a challenge. Some want a real Out with full national control over rules and borders. Some want a half-pregnant Out in the EFTA. Some want something else altogether. Whatever is getting proposed would irritate and disenchant part of the Out group.
"Wow, that must have been quite a thrill, small sum or not!"
Considering I only wrote for fun, yes.
I haven't told the tax people, though. I suppose I owe them £1.53.
I don't want to head where they're heading.
But the most persuasive argument is that an 'in' vote will just give the same idiots who wanted us to join the Euro a free hand, and will lead to the EU increasing its powers. After all, we voted for it, didn't we?
Norway has a seat at the true top tables whilst EU member states do not have that luxury. In fact some EU member states ask Norway to raise issues on their behalf.
The polls show that the younger you are the more likely you vote IN and the less likely to vote , therefore the 2015 GE election points to OUT winning since the Tories won with pensioners who are more likely to vote and vote OUT.
Pensioners prevailed in the AV referendum, the scottish referendum and the last 2 GE, and I think they will prevail in an EU referendum too.
Again though you're dealing with the problem that you lose the "control our borders" argument if we're in the EFTA you'll lose the "full control of writing our own laws" if we're in the EFTA and we'll lose the "have our say in writing European rules" if we're in the EFTA.
"Are gambling profits taxable ?"
I lost £20 following Peter the Punter's tips for the Grand National this year. Not that I'm bitter. Oh, no.
Worth a watch post-election 2015.
This looks like his form... have a laugh on me. http://horseform.racingandsports.com.au/viewHorse.asp?lan=&id=3ED0E771177A93D55E8D22
For the following year I have a deficit of £40-45bn pencilled in, but it's basically all guesswork there. Beyond the current fiscal year for which we now have some hard data it is very hard to make any accurate forecasts.
The model I use had a deficit of £89bn based on April 2014 PSF data, so I got closer to than the OBR for the year.
However, and here is the hard part to swallow for a lot of the fiscal conservatives on here like me, the government still haven't done enough to eliminate the structural deficit, after 16/17 the deficit is going to be incredibly hard to eliminate as tax cuts eat into revenue raising measures and spending rises start to bite into new revenues that are being raised. The government seriously need to look at how to lower the cost of pensions both public sector and state. As a country we cannot afford the "triple lock" and pensions need to be brought in line with CPI inflation. It is not sustainable for us as a country to spend ~£75bn per year on the state pension and a further £35bn per year on the public sector pension scheme. We need a reassessment of how people need to save for retirement and a long hard look at individual social security accounts rather than NI.
Taking currency as an example I could well see the OUT campaign claiming that we will eventually be forced to join the Euro, complete rubbish I know, however once the MSM and OUT supporters get it out there it will worry the older voters reliant on the MSM for information.
Another difficulty is that negatives for one side could end up being recruited sergeants for the other side. For example, IN will highlight potential damage to the City of London, where as bankers having to leave UK could sound like a positive to middle England OUT supporters.
I think Jim Murphy is pro-EU if the IN campaign is interested, he comes with a team who are used to playing the negative game.
And then there is the large trade deficit with the EU that also harms the economy, if we leave the trade deficit will shrink and if we join NAFTA (my preferred choice) we might even run a surplus.
Being an EU member is purely a political decision(massive ego's of PM's) that is economically damaging.
Oddly, as others have alluded to, a narrow IN could play into UKIP hands
Jim Murphy and Nick Clegg are my dream team of the IN campaign.
If they won't bash the EU as usual it will be a surprise.
The Daily Telegraph will have a civil war in their offices.
Out of the top 4 newspapers only the Mirror will clearly support IN.
I am pro-Europe and will be voting in. It is not just that I feel part of a common European heritage, it is that Europe needs us to continue to engage on the side of free markets, good governance and social development. Eastern Europe is a far better place for being in the EU, and Southern Europe too.
To paraphrase JFK: its not just about what europe can do for us, it is about what we can do for europe.
I'm against sacrificing the country and it's people for the sake of some vague european idea that never even existed in the first place.
As for laws, the EFTA still has to implement a large proportion of laws except in agriculture and fisheries. Considering the main argument being made by UKIP is full control over our borders and full control over our laws that's voided if we go back into the EFTA.
This is like other referenda like where republicans in Australia voted against the Republic being proposed as they wanted another one. Whatever alternative is proposed won't please everyone.
If he goes along with the desires of his Tory right-wingers, and succeeds, that would make the EU much more unpleasant than it is now. I would vote for OUT.
On the other hand, if his negotations are of the kind which would win my approval, he runs the risk of splitting the Conservative Party.
I don´t think he can take the Lib Dem vote for granted.
It is bloody for Carmichael. Front page everywhere and apart from the surreal Telegraph universally brutal. It is as bad a mauling as I have seen and almost universally in support of resignation from his seat.
Fib Dems are foolish to talk about no action. They would have been well advised to stick Lord Steel or someone to chunter on for a few months before deciding that he could continue.
This way it looks like total panic and adds to the feeling that Carmichael is toast.
I realise that those advocating an Out vote here on pb including you have done a pretty good job of outlining a suitable mix of "reduced control/reduced burden" but that does not hide the fact that among the public (both In and Out) the perception is that Out will be "very Out" and the politicians and business leaders of Out will have a challenge changing this even if it can unite on an alternative.
[The User Formerly Known as Grandiose]
"The right to freedom of speech is a fundamental one but it does bring a responsibility with it to tell the truth. The right to smear an opponent is not one we should be defending."
http://www.shetlandtimes.co.uk/2010/11/12/letter-from-westminster-49#.VWBURGPnIC8.twitter
When is he going to fall on his sword?
"Do you wish Britain the remain a member of the EU?"
As out will be divided between EFTA/EEA and "let's go it completely alone", it will have no coherent message. Businesses, who might prefer EFTA/EEA to full EU membership, will largely choose to back EU membership.
And if Nigel Farage is running the BOO campaign, it will result in people thinking BOO is the position of people who dislike gay marriage.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/leaders-end-of-the-road-looms-for-alistair-carmichael-1-3781219
"Mercifully for the former Scottish secretary, the UK electorate has spared him the full embarrassment of having to resign from office in shame, following the demise of the coalition government. He can also count himself fortunate that his confession comes after the general election, or he may not have been one of only three Scottish MPs to see off the SNP and retain his seat in the Commons.
The First Minister has called on Mr Carmichael to consider his position as an MP “because he clearly contested the election on false pretences”. It is not hard to see where she is coming from, having been the target of this botched briefing.
This unedifying episode further damages the public’s perception of politics, and will only deepen disenchantment with Westminster at a time levels of dissatisfaction in Scotland have rarely been more obvious. Mr Carmichael has cause for great personal regret over this matter, but the truth is that he has let us all down. The call for his resignation is a valid one."
Leaving the EU would give the UK a seat on many of these international bodies. Something which we do not currently have as a member of the EU. We would be able to influence the setting of standards which are then rubber stamped by the EU. The UK would be able to increase their influence on the world stage and sign FTAs with countries which the EU have put on hold due to their isolationist stance. Why is it the Swiss are capable of entering into FTAs with countries in a matter of years whilst the EU put them on hold due to their member states' protectionist outlook.
https://twitter.com/RobertTyreBute/status/602077297752088576
This would not pose any substantive difficulties, and I'm sure you could fairly seamlessly go from 31 December EU member to 1 January EFTA member.
(Humorous fact of the day: all EFTA members are Schengen members.)
F1: plain misjudgement on my part, though cooler temperatures perhaps didn't help. It's a better feeling them some bad luck earlier in the season, though (Lotus double score and no safety car at one race should've come off, but for misfortune).
Anyway, I'll give the race a look, and try to get the pre-race piece done in the next couple of hours.
Any chance of doing this again given the absence of polling/distrust of their results?
It'd be interesting to see who's in each grouping here as a topic for discussion.
For avoidance of doubt - I'm a BOOer unless Mr Cameron gets some meaningful opt-outs on immigration/benefits transfers.
Heavy rain and strong winds forecast for Ireland
The international bodies need to work of course. I am not in favour of the political side of the EU, it's implementation has been rushed and messed up. But it's up to them. Leaving EU will make very little difference. The EU will still be there and the USA is busy concluding a trade agreement. We would be left to follow as part of the EEA.
As usual, mountainous wishful thinking from the antis. 'best for Britain' indeed... Like blamange brain nutjob Farage's judgement is to be relied on.
There is no meaningful chance an application to join EFTA would be rejected.
That being said: for some BOOers (@Socrates, for example) who believe that putting EFTA/EEA on the ballot would be a betrayal and lowers the chance of a proper "out". It is also the view of Nigel Farage that we should not be aiming for EFTA/EEA status.
I think the fairest ballot would be this:
1. Full Exit
2. EFTA/EEA
3. non-EZ EU member
4. Eurozone member
And we could use STV.
Although the issue there is that if EFTA/EEA is first or second out, then you get 3 over 1, even though 2 might be the Concordorat (sp?) winner.
http://derekbateman.co.uk/2015/05/23/a-small-merci/
Immigration is the issue for me - we simply can't cope with how attractive we are as a homing point. And the more successful we are - the worse it will get. A nice form of problem to have - but we're collectively a victim of it.
EDIT I can buy bendy bananas from Tesco's Everyday range and leeks the size of baseball bats right now
It's a serious problem with being a member of any big trading bloc.
The EU's an indefensible organisation that will collapse like the Aetolian League.
- He has approved the leak of a 2nd hand confidential note of a diplomatic meeting, in clear breach of the Law Society's guidelines on handling confidential documents.
- He knew at the time of leaking that much of the content was potentially inaccurate.
- He misled the public in numerous interviews on the matter.
- Once the Cabinet Office leak investigation started he could have phoned Jeremy and clarified matters. This would have cost 14p, instead he appears to have frustrated the investigation which has ended up costing £1.4 million.
- The LibDems have already exonerated him and will not be taking any action against him, which is clear evidence that they are not respecting the electorate.
- For once the MSM is seeking to hold Carmichael to account.
- If he was an honourable man he would resign and let his constituents decide whether he was still fit to be their MP.
- If this information had come to light before 7th May he would likely have lost his seat.
Maybe it's my age, but I see us as a global pink-atlas player who did things wildly beyond our size and geography for centuries. And our language is the default in very many places either first or second.
I feel the EU is something to consider in our kit bag, but only if it suits our wider aims and ambitions. If not, dump it. I'm not the teeniest bit sentimental about it. And those members/citizens who remain won't stop buying from us out of spite.
Re the EU in general, I think the Eurozone will either collapse, or evolve to look more like a country. Either is possible.
I suspect the latter, because - with every day that goes by - the cost of break-up gets higher, and therefore the temptation to band-aid over issues gets greater. Which in turn raises the costs of break-up.
https://twitter.com/shirva77/status/602143474834644992
I agree with you on papering over the cracks. That's one of the major reasons we should leave now. We can have pain now, or immense pain later. If the EU collapsed now there'd probably be some low level civil strife. If it collapses in 20 years, strife will be widespread and we might even see some warfare.
Miss Plato, your post reminds me of the contrary view, as epitomised by Clegg, who asserted we'd be a 'pygmy' without the EU.
Oh and although all current non-EU EFTA members may be part of Schengen it does not mean that being part of EFTA means you also gave to be part of Schengen.
Like LIAMT, the most important issue to me is sovereignty. I want to be governed by people who are accountable to the British electorate, and nobody else.
The issue to me is that this integration path is a nightmare for those people who are not members of the Eurozone. We don't want to join their country, and our presence is a pain.
Therefore we should leave.
However, I think that we would be extremely unwise not to go down the EFTA/EEA route. I'm in a minority of one on this, but I think the free movement of labour is the single greatest achievement of the EU - although I don't believe there should be any rights of non citizens to claim benefits.
Mr Tyndall - do you have plans/ambitions to be involved in the referendum? I can't think of anyone else so knowledgeable bar Mr Booker.
I do hope you have time to dedicate to it. An informed debate is essential - the nonsense slogans from the SNP re Sindy made me laugh/wince and cry inside. We can't let that paucity of facts happen to the whole UK.
https://twitter.com/GinaBo/status/602133791612731392