In light of their record at GE 2015 I will wait for the Exit Poll.
I am probably a yes voter but open to persuation.
They were ultimately right on the AV referendum, the Indyref.
Golden rule, whichever side Dave is on, that side will win, he won the AV ref, he won the indyref, he's never lost a plebiscite
He's very good at this politics lark, and being Prime Minister, plus he'll have George Osborne advising him, and he's the greatest strategist in British Politics right now.
Golden rule, whichever side Dave is on, that side will win, he won the AV ref, he won the indyref, he's never lost a plebiscite
He's very good at this politics lark, and being Prime Minister, plus he'll have George Osborne advising him, and he's the greatest strategist in British Politics right now.
He should stay for GE 2020!
I'm starting to think - if Lab choose Liz she'll beat any Con leader - other than Dave.
It's very early to make a serious call on the EU referendum. The decision will be determined by a mass of variables which means the basis of any prediction cannot be reduced to just one killer argument. A complex model is needed, but the more moving parts such a model has - the more likely it is to go wrong. Witness the recent failure of all the complicated models employed by the General Election pollsters to turn raw polling data into estimates of current vote intention.
Maybe it's time to stop relying so heavily on the expert models and vote intention polling. There are three exciting alternatives which rely on trusting the mass public's judgement - i.e. the 'Wisdom of Crowds - rather than 'expert' political judgement. The first and most established is to check what the betting markets are saying. Judgement backed by hard dosh has a good record in predicting elections (Wolfers & Zitzewitz, 2004). However, although it did better than the polling at GE2015, it didn't deliver much improvement - see my blog on this: http://alberttapper.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/predicting-ge-2015-which-group-should_7.html
The betting markets did start to distrust the polling towards polling day, but the market lines largely followed the polling lines on total seats, and failed in the same way. This was despite the inherent tendency in British betting markets on politics to favour the right wing alternative, the Conservatives.
The second alternative is 'expectation polling' where voters are asked to say who they think will win (ideally at the Constituency level) rather than how they intend to vote. One piece of research by a young German called Andreas Murr looked at this, based on a YouGov poll in February of 17,000 respondents. Despite 17,000 national respondents translates into just 25 voters per seat, this method generated a prediction of 292 Tory seats, more accurate than all the eleven academic prediction models bar Stephen Fisher's Electionsetc.com (296).
The last alternative is the most fun. This would be a massive free to play online prediction game where the public would be asked to predict seat totals in return for the chance of winning a large prize, probably put up by a bookmaker, hungry for new customers. They would also get publicity as the public would be playing against experts and even celebs. Political Betting did run such a tourney, but next time it could be much bigger, generating more reliable data. Again, this is discussed on my blog. If you make a visit, please could you also vote on what prediction method you think would be most reliable? My online poll has so far only attracted one voter! (me). You need to scroll to the bottom of the blog to find to find the poll.
Heapfully, the OK won't end up with Nell Points this yoar.
17.5 for a top 10 place on Betfair is good value. After all we haven't invaded anyone for a couple of years...
Does that moan the Rissians will get Nell Points?
I cannot see them getting a lot of points from their neighbours!
Underlying that comment is a common misconception. Countries do not vote for their neighbours because they are neighbours; ex-pats vote for their motherland and neighbouring countries is where they generally most often live.
Golden rule, whichever side Dave is on, that side will win, he won the AV ref, he won the indyref, he's never lost a plebiscite
He's very good at this politics lark, and being Prime Minister, plus he'll have George Osborne advising him, and he's the greatest strategist in British Politics right now.
He should stay for GE 2020!
I'm starting to think - if Lab choose Liz she'll beat any Con leader - other than Dave.
One of the threads tomorrow should be on the person who should replace Dave as leader.
Golden rule, whichever side Dave is on, that side will win, he won the AV ref, he won the indyref, he's never lost a plebiscite
He's very good at this politics lark, and being Prime Minister, plus he'll have George Osborne advising him, and he's the greatest strategist in British Politics right now.
He should stay for GE 2020!
I'm starting to think - if Lab choose Liz she'll beat any Con leader - other than Dave.
One of the threads tomorrow should be on the person who should replace Dave as leader.
Wouldn't now be the perfect time to debut that much-awaited thread on AV? Since nothing else of great import is going on.
Golden rule, whichever side Dave is on, that side will win, he won the AV ref, he won the indyref, he's never lost a plebiscite
He's very good at this politics lark, and being Prime Minister, plus he'll have George Osborne advising him, and he's the greatest strategist in British Politics right now.
He should stay for GE 2020!
I'm starting to think - if Lab choose Liz she'll beat any Con leader - other than Dave.
One of the threads tomorrow should be on the person who should replace Dave as leader.
Wouldn't now be the perfect time to debut that much-awaited thread on AV? Since nothing else of great import is going on.
Alas, the AV thread needs much work on it now, it was written before the Tories won majority a couple of weeks ago.
The thread speculated that AV/Electoral reform would be the only way for the Tories to ever gain a majority.
Heapfully, the OK won't end up with Nell Points this yoar.
17.5 for a top 10 place on Betfair is good value. After all we haven't invaded anyone for a couple of years...
Does that moan the Rissians will get Nell Points?
I cannot see them getting a lot of points from their neighbours!
Underlying that comment is a common misconception. Countries do not vote for their neighbours because they are neighbours; ex-pats vote for their motherland and neighbouring countries is where they generally most often live.
That is true for the citizen juries, but not the expert juries.
Mind you, One reason I tip Serbia is that as there are many ex Yugo contries the Serbs will do well. Bosnia and Montenegro will give top marks, then there is FYR Macedonia, Croatia, Slovenia, as well as other slavophile countries...still better than shooting at each other.
Golden rule, whichever side Dave is on, that side will win, he won the AV ref, he won the indyref, he's never lost a plebiscite
He's very good at this politics lark, and being Prime Minister, plus he'll have George Osborne advising him, and he's the greatest strategist in British Politics right now.
He should stay for GE 2020!
I'm starting to think - if Lab choose Liz she'll beat any Con leader - other than Dave.
One of the threads tomorrow should be on the person who should replace Dave as leader.
Wouldn't now be the perfect time to debut that much-awaited thread on AV? Since nothing else of great import is going on.
Alas, the AV thread needs much work on it now, it was written before the Tories won majority a couple of weeks ago.
The thread speculated that AV/Electoral reform would be the only way for the Tories to ever gain a majority.
I is Nostradamus
How many years has it been since the Tories last won a majority? 0.04
Golden rule, whichever side Dave is on, that side will win, he won the AV ref, he won the indyref, he's never lost a plebiscite
He's very good at this politics lark, and being Prime Minister, plus he'll have George Osborne advising him, and he's the greatest strategist in British Politics right now.
He should stay for GE 2020!
I'm starting to think - if Lab choose Liz she'll beat any Con leader - other than Dave.
One of the threads tomorrow should be on the person who should replace Dave as leader.
Wouldn't now be the perfect time to debut that much-awaited thread on AV? Since nothing else of great import is going on.
Alas, the AV thread needs much work on it now, it was written before the Tories won majority a couple of weeks ago.
The thread speculated that AV/Electoral reform would be the only way for the Tories to ever gain a majority.
I is Nostradamus
How many years has it been since the Tories last won a majority? 0.04
By my reckoning, it 0.04 years since the Tories last won a majority, and over ten years since Labour last won a majority, which doesn't count, as that was Blair, and according to some on the left, he was a Tory.
Golden rule, whichever side Dave is on, that side will win, he won the AV ref, he won the indyref, he's never lost a plebiscite
He's very good at this politics lark, and being Prime Minister, plus he'll have George Osborne advising him, and he's the greatest strategist in British Politics right now.
He should stay for GE 2020!
I'm starting to think - if Lab choose Liz she'll beat any Con leader - other than Dave.
One of the threads tomorrow should be on the person who should replace Dave as leader.
Wouldn't now be the perfect time to debut that much-awaited thread on AV? Since nothing else of great import is going on.
Alas, the AV thread needs much work on it now, it was written before the Tories won majority a couple of weeks ago.
The thread speculated that AV/Electoral reform would be the only way for the Tories to ever gain a majority.
I is Nostradamus
How many years has it been since the Tories last won a majority? 0.04
By my reckoning, it 0.04 years since the Tories last won a majority, and over ten years since Labour last won a majority, which doesn't count, as that was Blair, and according to some on the left, he was a Tory.
RobD That majority did allow Labour to raise the top tax rate to 50% and increase spending to 47% and while Blair was clearly responsible in many ways for Labour's 1997 and 2001 landslides by 2005 polls showed Brown would have won by more than Blair did
One of the threads tomorrow should be on the person who should replace Dave as leader.
As time goes on people are going to start to realise how great a politician he is - hated by Lab, LD and UKIP supporters, hated by a good chunk of Con supporters, Bullingdon, out of touch, caught out over which football team he supports, and yet .........
He wins!
And not only that he's now made the Con vote far, far more efficient than Lab. So Con is now well ahead of Lab on equal seats even before any boundary changes.
I think there will be calls for him to stay for GE 2020.
RobD That majority did allow Labour to raise the top tax rate to 50% and increase spending to 47% and while Blair was clearly responsible in many ways for Labour's 1997 and 2001 landslides by 2005 polls showed Brown would have won by more than Blair did
Yeah, I don't think Blair was a Tory.. just teasing the non-PB Tories
One of the threads tomorrow should be on the person who should replace Dave as leader.
As time goes on people are going to start to realise how great a politician he is - hated by Lab, LD and UKIP supporters, hated by a good chunk of Con supporters, Bullingdon, out of touch, caught out over which football team he supports, and yet .........
He wins!
And not only that he's now made the Con vote far, far more efficient than Lab. So Con is now well ahead of Lab on equal seats even before any boundary changes.
I think there will be calls for him to stay for GE 2020.
Just imagine how mahoosive the Tory majority would have been in Dave's heart had been in it.
MikeL Unless Dave wins a landslide in EUref for In I expect he will be happy to move into an Oxfordshire Mansion with SamCam, with a few more holidays in Mauritius rather than Cornwall and leave the follow out fall out following a narrow In or Out to his successor
The interests of the US and UK are closely aligned. Would the EU-philes be in favour of letting the US be able to make our laws, as they are for the EU?
Don't really agree with your premise, but if I did, I'd consider the 51st state idea.
On a less contentious note (bank holiday weekend and all that, let's be peaceful), I'm planning a long holiday in the US in August, starting with the World Boardgames Convention in Lancaster, PA at the start of the month. After that, I've got some reasons to go to Las Vegas and San Francisco, and I'm flirting with the idea of hiring a car and leisurely driving across (it's about 35 hours total), stopping off at sights and small towns on the way - I've always liked small-town America despite (or perhaps because of) the cultural differences. After all, going by air takes 7 hours plus the time to get to the airport etc. But how bonkers is that? Would I be seeing lots of pretty little towns and interesting sights, or would I just be driving hour after hour across featureless cornfield terrain in blazing heat, cowering in the air conditioning? Are there sights people would specially recommend on the way?
I have done a number of road trips across the USA, as I lived there for 5 years.
The Amish country of Pennsylvania is interesting (albeit often a bit touristy).
Gettysburg is nearby, and the battlefield fascinating to see for anyone who has played Terrible Swift Sword etc. It is also quite an interesting Pennsylvanian Deutsch town in its own right. The Shenandoah valley ov Virginia is pretty, and also has some well preserved historic sites. I do not know Kentucky or Ohio very well, but Tennessee has some real redneck hillbilly country, not always pretty but an interesting insight into Southern USA.
teresting anyway. The old lodge at the Grand Canyon is very atmospheric. Worth eating there even if not staying, the Tex Mex breakfast/brunch in particular.
America is best by road, though the interstate highways are often pretty ugly. It is more interesting (but slower) to dawdle along the more minor roads and stop in small town america. Expect to be made a fuss of, they don't get many foeigners through.
The mid west is extraordinarily friendly when they hear an English accent. I lived there for a short while, a young girl from Ohio there stole my heart, but alas, it wasnt to be..
You'll be all delighted to know that my next stint as Guest Editor covers the 200th Anniversary of the Battle of Waterloo, so you know what that means on the 18th of June?
The interests of the US and UK are closely aligned. Would the EU-philes be in favour of letting the US be able to make our laws, as they are for the EU?
Don't really agree with your premise, but if I did, I'd consider the 51st state idea.
air conditioning? Are there sights people would specially recommend on the way?
I have done a number of road trips across the USA, as I lived there for 5 years.
The Amish country of Pennsylvania is interesting (albeit often a bit touristy).
Gettysburg is nearby, and the battlefield fascinating to see for anyone who has played Terrible Swift Sword etc. It is also quite an interesting Pennsylvanian Deutsch town in its own right. The Shenandoah valley ov Virginia is pretty, and also has some well preserved historic sites. I do not know Kentucky or Ohio very well, but Tennessee has some real redneck hillbilly country, not always pretty but an interesting insight into Southern USA.
very early - gets damned hot later. teresting anyway. The old lodge at the Grand Canyon is very atmospheric. Worth eating there even if not staying, the Tex Mex breakfast/brunch in particular.
America is best by road, though the interstate highways are often pretty ugly. It is more interesting (but slower) to dawdle along the more minor roads and stop in small town america. Expect to be made a fuss of, they don't get many foeigners through.
The mid west is extraordinarily friendly when they hear an English accent. I lived there for a short while, a young girl from Ohio there stole my heart, but alas, it wasnt to be..
Most of America is so ridiculously friendly. They would go to the end of the County to help you out.
By the way, Nick - go via Arizona. Bit of Route 66. Painted Desert is excellent. So is Meteor Crater (but if you are going to walk round it, set off early - it gets damned hot later. And if you have never done it, the Grand Canyon is one of those rare places that does not disappoint..
I read that too - he's got a good voice. And so did she. Infinitely better than the out of tune Jemini. I can't catch a tune in a bucket and could do better.
You'll be all delighted to know that my next stint as Guest Editor covers the 200th Anniversary of the Battle of Waterloo, so you know what that means on the 18th of June?
1) Lots of ABBA references
2) Lots of goading of les grenouilles
3) Comparisons of Dave to Arthur Wellesley
Wellesley was a rather cr@p PM, twice. So there are absolutely no comparisons to Dave. :-)
His second stint must have been one of the shortest of anybody as PM - only three weeks. Again, no comparison with Dave...
Comments
I'm starting to think - if Lab choose Liz she'll beat any Con leader - other than Dave.
Maybe it's time to stop relying so heavily on the expert models and vote intention polling. There are three exciting alternatives which rely on trusting the mass public's judgement - i.e. the 'Wisdom of Crowds - rather than 'expert' political judgement. The first and most established is to check what the betting markets are saying. Judgement backed by hard dosh has a good record in predicting elections (Wolfers & Zitzewitz, 2004). However, although it did better than the polling at GE2015, it didn't deliver much improvement - see my blog on this: http://alberttapper.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/predicting-ge-2015-which-group-should_7.html
The betting markets did start to distrust the polling towards polling day, but the market lines largely followed the polling lines on total seats, and failed in the same way. This was despite the inherent tendency in British betting markets on politics to favour the right wing alternative, the Conservatives.
The second alternative is 'expectation polling' where voters are asked to say who they think will win (ideally at the Constituency level) rather than how they intend to vote. One piece of research by a young German called Andreas Murr looked at this, based on a YouGov poll in February of 17,000 respondents. Despite 17,000 national respondents translates into just 25 voters per seat, this method generated a prediction of 292 Tory seats, more accurate than all the eleven academic prediction models bar Stephen Fisher's Electionsetc.com (296).
The last alternative is the most fun. This would be a massive free to play online prediction game where the public would be asked to predict seat totals in return for the chance of winning a large prize, probably put up by a bookmaker, hungry for new customers. They would also get publicity as the public would be playing against experts and even celebs. Political Betting did run such a tourney, but next time it could be much bigger, generating more reliable data. Again, this is discussed on my blog. If you make a visit, please could you also vote on what prediction method you think would be most reliable? My online poll has so far only attracted one voter! (me). You need to scroll to the bottom of the blog to find to find the poll.
The last one I saw was when Abba won, with the full Katie Boyle treatment. It was total kitsch.
The thread speculated that AV/Electoral reform would be the only way for the Tories to ever gain a majority.
I is Nostradamus
People love Eurovision.
Mind you, One reason I tip Serbia is that as there are many ex Yugo contries the Serbs will do well. Bosnia and Montenegro will give top marks, then there is FYR Macedonia, Croatia, Slovenia, as well as other slavophile countries...still better than shooting at each other.
Ewww.
(I know, deep down I'm very shallow)
He wins!
And not only that he's now made the Con vote far, far more efficient than Lab. So Con is now well ahead of Lab on equal seats even before any boundary changes.
I think there will be calls for him to stay for GE 2020.
LOVE IT!
No, really, I liked it, as some PBers may have worked out, my musical tastes, are erm eclectic.
It is said, my iPod contains more evil than an Islamic State suggestion box.
Arf!
The guy sounded like a bloke on a stag-do trying to do karoake, recovering from a sore throat.
Don't care about to what song.
1) Lots of ABBA references
2) Lots of goading of les grenouilles
3) Comparisons of Dave to Arthur Wellesley
By the way, Nick - go via Arizona. Bit of Route 66. Painted Desert is excellent. So is Meteor Crater (but if you are going to walk round it, set off early - it gets damned hot later. And if you have never done it, the Grand Canyon is one of those rare places that does not disappoint..
www.youtube.com/watch?v=FE0XcdM22Yo
So rude
I'll be amazed if we win tbh.
https://youtu.be/M3awRSpP3WY
His second stint must have been one of the shortest of anybody as PM - only three weeks. Again, no comparison with Dave...