politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON moves to 9% lead in first GE2020 poll.
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Surbiton As I posted below there are now 5 million ethnic minority voters in Britain, and Umunna is perfectly placed to appeal to suburban middle Britain even if he loses a few votes to UKIP in Barnsley0
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Quite amusing the liberal left behave like fascists and then have the cheek to accuse others of being fascists.Richard_Tyndall said:
Dair I have seen you spew more bigoted hatred on here than any UKIP poster. You also seem to revel in your own ignorance so I would suggest you take a long hard look at yourself before accusing others of the traits you show in such excess.Dair said:
They are a right wing race hate party. Unsurprisingly that means they get at least half their vote from previous Labour voters. Race Hate trumps left vs right.Richard_Tyndall said:
Even more funny given that people like Dair were saying UKIP were a right wing party before the election and now that they don't like the percentages they are trying to claim they are not right wing after all.AndyJS said:
The problem is left-wingers kept saying the Thatcher government wasn't legitimate because you could add together the Labour and Alliance shares to get more than 50%. The "progressive majority" as it was called.Dair said:
People keep repeating this to give the 37% Government some legitimacy. I don't think it is remotely true. Kippers took as many (if not more) from Labour as from Tory and I don't think there were any significant number of Kippers voting for UKIP to get continued Austerity.AndyJS said:In England the Con + UKIP figure was 55%. Still 51% with Scotland and Wales as I said earlier.
It's a completely bogus argument.
Suprised Dair isn't in London with his non-fascist peaceful comrades:
https://twitter.com/CaptainWeeab00/status/597163891181912064
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I'll switch over immediately...Sunil_Prasannan said:
"Sounds of the 80s" on Freeview 601AndyJS said:
Seats are based on the electorate, not the number of people who vote.Dair said:
That would mean 10% of votes cast were in Scotland. One extra seat in a 600 seat parliament.AndyJS said:
Which raw figures are you talking about? The total electorate this time was 46,425,386:DecrepitJohnL said:
Given the changes to registration, as well as the increase north of the border, a 1% increase probably masks a real decrease. Does anyone have the raw figures yet?AndyJS said:Something for the people demonstrating in Whitehall to consider:
In Great Britain the combined Conservative and UKIP share was 50.66%, 15,188,670 votes out of a total of 29,980,107.
One thing that hasn't been discussed much in the media is that turnout only increased by 1%. It looks like a lot of potential Labour voters didn't bother to vote.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results0 -
''Look Nigel, we love you but...'' Hilarious. Poor Nigel. Here he is, the leader of a party that is supposed to be the one that will break the mould, will solve the problems of those who 'love him'. They know he is going to resign if he loses, he must be the most important person in their universe. Whither UKIP without him?MP_SE said:Feel quite sorry for Nige if this is true:
twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/597093924243648512
But vote for him? 'Sorry Nigel but...'
Yes he is a sorry Nigel all right.
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Cameron must have been terribly confused this evening. Not how did he end up wining a majority and now how the hell is he going to implement lots of fake pledges in the manifesto, which he was going to throw away as price of Coalition II....
no it was that Aston Ham vs West Villa United on MOTD.0 -
That last graphic is intersting. The actual numbers produced by the Electoral Reform Society showed that the Tories would have 258 seats and UKIP 83. Yet the graphic clearly shows the Tories on less than 250.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
ISAM There are 8 million BME Britons in total, over double the 2015 UKIP vote and equivalent to the population of Scotland and Wales combined. Obama managed to both increase the Democrats percentage of the Hispanic and black and Asian vote and get them out to vote in higher numbers
http://www.racecard.org.uk/equality/race-and-elections-how-the-ethnic-minority-vote-could-decide-the-next-prime-minister/
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I expect a new Lib-Lab rapprochement, with PR suddenly back on the agenda!Pulpstar said:
But that takes 50 or so seats out the equation that will never vote for a Tory QS. Labour has long term problems in Wales. And England is a HUGE ask for Labour.RodCrosby said:Problem for Labour now is how the hell do they win from here?
Back of the envelope says they need something like a 7% swing for a majority, historically unlikely.
But anything less is a hung parliament, with the spectre of the Nats at the table, just like last week. The South and Midlands, as we saw, just won't wear that.
Labour's best hope must be for an independent Scotland, with them taken out of the equation completely...
They are screwed.0 -
Who would have ever imagined that previously?RodCrosby said:Problem for Labour now is how the hell do they win from here?
Back of the envelope says they need something like a 7% swing for a majority, historically unlikely.
But anything less is a hung parliament, with the spectre of the Nats at the table, just like last week. The South and Midlands, as we saw, just won't wear that.
Labour's best hope must be for an independent Scotland, with them taken out of the equation completely...
Congratulations Blair. His attempted gerrymandering has instead become a self inflicted amputation of one of Labour's legs.0 -
IMO focusing so strongly on ethnicity is one of the problems for the left in the UK today. Voters in Middle England don't have a problem voting for people who happen to be from an ethnic minority like Sajid Javid and Nadhim Zahawi but they don't like it being a big issue.HYUFD said:Surbiton As I posted below there are now 5 million ethnic minority voters in Britain, and Umunna is perfectly placed to appeal to suburban middle Britain even if he loses a few votes to UKIP in Barnsley
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Just some musing on the polling accuracy. The polls for Scotland, taken at the same time and using the same methodology were actually correct: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/scotland
Doesn't this support the idea that something happened, e.g. undecideds going Tory, rather than a problem with weighting?0 -
Oh right I was just going off your figures of 5 and 3... If you change them to 8 and 3.8 I guess that is over double the amountHYUFD said:ISAM There are 8 million BME Britons in total, over double the 2015 UKIP vote
http://www.racecard.org.uk/equality/race-and-elections-how-the-ethnic-minority-vote-could-decide-the-next-prime-minister/
Make it 4 and 40 and I'll agree it's 10 times the amount0 -
But PR is not on the agenda of the governing party, so it won't happen (before 2020 anyway).RodCrosby said:
I expect a new Lib-Lab rapprochement, with PR suddenly back on the agenda!Pulpstar said:
But that takes 50 or so seats out the equation that will never vote for a Tory QS. Labour has long term problems in Wales. And England is a HUGE ask for Labour.RodCrosby said:Problem for Labour now is how the hell do they win from here?
Back of the envelope says they need something like a 7% swing for a majority, historically unlikely.
But anything less is a hung parliament, with the spectre of the Nats at the table, just like last week. The South and Midlands, as we saw, just won't wear that.
Labour's best hope must be for an independent Scotland, with them taken out of the equation completely...
They are screwed.0 -
OK so 30,698,210 votes in total compared with 29,691,380 in 2010.AndyJS said:
Which raw figures are you talking about? The total electorate this time was 46,425,386:DecrepitJohnL said:
Given the changes to registration, as well as the increase north of the border, a 1% increase probably masks a real decrease. Does anyone have the raw figures yet?AndyJS said:Something for the people demonstrating in Whitehall to consider:
In Great Britain the combined Conservative and UKIP share was 50.66%, 15,188,670 votes out of a total of 29,980,107.
One thing that hasn't been discussed much in the media is that turnout only increased by 1%. It looks like a lot of potential Labour voters didn't bother to vote.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results0 -
Its going to be boring listening to Salmond's regular 2 sets of questions. It will be funny though listening to Tristram waffling on about posh boys who don't know about the real world.OblitusSumMe said:
They might anyway.Pulpstar said:If the boundary changes go ahead, could the Lib Dems lose all their seats except perhaps Westmorland ? (Orkney on a knife edge)
It will be interesting to see how seriously they are treated by the media after receiving nearly one and a half million votes less than UKIP. It's not like the DUP normally get much media time with their 8 MPs, and I'd be surprised if their leader went back to having a guaranteed set of questions at PMQs as the Lib Dems used to get prior to 2010.
One presumes that the SNP are going to get a lot of time in the London media, and the Lib Dems will be well down the pecking order.0 -
ISAM Well even on the figures of voters there are still 1.2 million more ethnic minority voters than UKIP voters, if more of the 8 million can be persuaded to vote for the UK's first ethnic minority PM that figure would rise further0
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ExactlyAndyJS said:
IMO focusing so strongly on ethnicity is one of the problems for the left in the UK today. Voters in Middle England don't have a problem voting for people who happen to be from an ethnic minority like Sajid Javid and Nadhim Zahawi but they don't like it being a big issue.HYUFD said:Surbiton As I posted below there are now 5 million ethnic minority voters in Britain, and Umunna is perfectly placed to appeal to suburban middle Britain even if he loses a few votes to UKIP in Barnsley
That's why I wouldn't vote for abbot or khan but would vote for Patel and kwasi0 -
Labour seem to be completely incapable of looking beyond the colour of someone's skin.HYUFD said:Surbiton As I posted below there are now 5 million ethnic minority voters in Britain, and Umunna is perfectly placed to appeal to suburban middle Britain even if he loses a few votes to UKIP in Barnsley
I know a huge number of people who are left leaning and BME but voted Tory due to how anti aspiration and business the Labour party are perceived as being.0 -
I really hate when people do the what would [insert election under] FPTP look like if we had AV or PR....people's voting patterns would change.0
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Why, he was as guilty as the Tories for the racist lies about Scotland. He repeated anti-Scottish rhetoric on an hourly basis. If I cost him a seat, good. In reality he just didn't get the votes he needed. He was a failure.MP_SE said:Feel quite sorry for Nige if this is true:
https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/5970939242436485120 -
I think Labour's problem is deeper than that.RodCrosby said:Problem for Labour now is how the hell do they win from here?
Back of the envelope says they need something like a 7% swing for a majority, historically unlikely.
But anything less is a hung parliament, with the spectre of the Nats at the table, just like last week. The South and Midlands, as we saw, just won't wear that.
Labour's best hope must be for an independent Scotland, with them taken out of the equation completely...
The whole left wing 'working people' nonsense and particularly the association with the unions is way past its sell by date. They need to stop the 'Labour Movement' stuff and just be a political party. As long as they are in hock to the unions they can never change.
Labour needs to take a hard look at what it has to offer in today's economy. Everybody seems to have worked out that the best unemployment benifit is a JOB, so they need to come up with pro-business policies that appeal to aspirational middle class folks who want to earn some good money and better themselves.
You can't do that with 'soak the rich', destroying pensions and lefty policies.0 -
Not really. Given there was polling right up to election day, it would need to have been very late decisions.Cosmic said:Just some musing on the polling accuracy. The polls for Scotland, taken at the same time and using the same methodology were actually correct: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/scotland
Doesn't this support the idea that something happened, e.g. undecideds going Tory, rather than a problem with weighting?0 -
I repeat - the SNP would not get any seats as they would not get above the 5% barrier.Sunil_Prasannan said:
In any event how can a proportional system not take into account the 34% who did not vote?
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Sorry could you retype that post in a format which does not come across as incoherent rambling.Flightpathl said:
''Look Nigel, we love you but...'' Hilarious. Poor Nigel. Here he is, the leader of a party that is supposed to be the one that will break the mould, will solve the problems of those who 'love him'. They know he is going to resign if he loses, he must be the most important person in their universe. Whither UKIP without him?MP_SE said:Feel quite sorry for Nige if this is true:
twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/597093924243648512
But vote for him? 'Sorry Nigel but...'
Yes he is a sorry Nigel all right.
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I think you're right that turnout as a proportion of the entire adult population probably declined, because — as we all know — the population of the country has been growing rapidly over the last five years, and so you'd have expected the total number of votes to have increased by more than it did if turnout was remaining the same. But a lot of that new population won't be on the electoral register for obvious reasons.DecrepitJohnL said:
OK so 30,698,210 votes in total compared with 29,691,380 in 2010.AndyJS said:
Which raw figures are you talking about? The total electorate this time was 46,425,386:DecrepitJohnL said:
Given the changes to registration, as well as the increase north of the border, a 1% increase probably masks a real decrease. Does anyone have the raw figures yet?AndyJS said:Something for the people demonstrating in Whitehall to consider:
In Great Britain the combined Conservative and UKIP share was 50.66%, 15,188,670 votes out of a total of 29,980,107.
One thing that hasn't been discussed much in the media is that turnout only increased by 1%. It looks like a lot of potential Labour voters didn't bother to vote.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results0 -
AndyJS The suburban middle class will vote for a leader who is moderate and reasonable, however the left does need to learn from Obama's ability to maximise and turn out the growing ethnic minority vote0
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I'm not sure what happened in Peterborough. If Labour activists starting booing Jackson before he'd even begun making his speech I can understand him being annoyed, when he'd been elected a few seconds before.Pulpstar said:
A good deal more gracious than Stewart Jackson's victory speechAndyJS said:Sutton & Cheam declaration:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=up5IwGXFKtg
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUBW0n0EGv0
Torbay0 -
Also BME peoples are becoming increasingly like other Brits in how they vote, particularly Sikhs and Hindus as well as Black Africans. Muslims less so. I have several asian colleagues who voted kipper.AndyJS said:
IMO focusing so strongly on ethnicity is one of the problems for the left in the UK today. Voters in Middle England don't have a problem voting for people who happen to be from an ethnic minority like Sajid Javid but they don't like it being a big issue.HYUFD said:Surbiton As I posted below there are now 5 million ethnic minority voters in Britain, and Umunna is perfectly placed to appeal to suburban middle Britain even if he loses a few votes to UKIP in Barnsley
Labour built up a strong following in BME groups by interpreting the world through the prism of class, and of anti-imperialist sympathies. The flawed concept of multiculturism came later.0 -
Rod Labour could also do a deal with the LDs, perhaps under Tim Farron, and the Greens. Agree with Rod0
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The Tories must have done very well with Hindu voters in the Harrow constituencies.foxinsoxuk said:
Also BME peoples are becoming increasingly like other Brits in how they vote, particularly Sikhs and Hindus as well as Black Africans. Muslims less so. I have several asian colleagues who voted kipper.AndyJS said:
IMO focusing so strongly on ethnicity is one of the problems for the left in the UK today. Voters in Middle England don't have a problem voting for people who happen to be from an ethnic minority like Sajid Javid but they don't like it being a big issue.HYUFD said:Surbiton As I posted below there are now 5 million ethnic minority voters in Britain, and Umunna is perfectly placed to appeal to suburban middle Britain even if he loses a few votes to UKIP in Barnsley
Labour built up a strong following in BME groups by interpreting the world through the prism of class, and of anti-imperialist sympathies. The flawed concept of multiculturism came later.0 -
And smoked a pipe in public and a cigar in private. A good definition of socialism for me.Tim_B said:
- and always seemed to wear Gannex coatsFlightpathl said:
Why can't you have another Harold Wilson?surbiton said:
I don't think Labour would win one single extra vote from Ethnic Minorities if Umunna was the leader. A few Liberals , who still voted Liberal, might come over. But that's about it.HYUFD said:Sandpit Complete crap, Labour has its base of ethnic minority and public sector workers which would only increase under an Umunna leadership, post a close EU referendum it is the Tories who will worry about losing voters to UKIP. But as I said the white working class is in relative decline, there is no future in being UKIP lite for Labour, they will not beat the real thing, to win they have to win back the educated, relatively prosperous suburban middle class who backed Blair and Obama in the US
We need a leader from Middle Britain. Why can't we have another Harold Wilson ? Much criticised while leader even by members of the Labour party, yet won 4 elections.
Well first you need to find someone with... wait for it... Brains. he was an Oxford Don at 21.
Wilson studied PPE by the way...0 -
Why are you even bothering boring on about this? I couldn't care less and it is rather narrow minded and old fashioned to assume that ethnic minorities are going to vote for someone just because they share skin colour anywayHYUFD said:ISAM Well even on the figures of voters there are still 1.2 million more ethnic minority voters than UKIP voters, if more of the 8 million can be persuaded to vote for the UK's first ethnic minority PM that figure would rise further
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Russell Brand is trademarking his own spelling of the word 'revolution'
His company has reserved right to use the logo with letters spelling 'love'
Trademark can be used on trinkets, stationery, wallets and even lingerie
He has been selling T-shirts with similar logo on his website for at least £30
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3075121/Poor-old-Russell-wants-launch-revolution-quaintly-capitalist-fashion-wants-brand-spelling-sell-trinkets-masses.html
Up the workers....now drive on driver...0 -
2020
"and all the polls say Labour are 6 points ahead, an amazing turnaround from 2015, for the New New Labour party. However, experts say Labour are still likely to fall short of an overall majority. Labour leader Mary Creagh has ruled out any kind of deal with the SNP. She has even written it in her own blood on the wall of Labour Party HQ in London..."
Voters: "Just show me the box marked Conservative..."0 -
I'm happy with how I look in the mirror. And very happy at friends from Europe coming to Scotland and joining out community. Not so happy about race hate preachers like Farage being married to one of the people he preaches against. I'd rather people coming to Scotland were involved and part of our society. Like the EU immigrant to Scotland who is an SNP MSP.Richard_Tyndall said:
Dair I have seen you spew more bigoted hatred on here than any UKIP poster. You also seem to revel in your own ignorance so I would suggest you take a long hard look at yourself before accusing others of the traits you show in such excess.Dair said:
They are a right wing race hate party. Unsurprisingly that means they get at least half their vote from previous Labour voters. Race Hate trumps left vs right.Richard_Tyndall said:
Even more funny given that people like Dair were saying UKIP were a right wing party before the election and now that they don't like the percentages they are trying to claim they are not right wing after all.AndyJS said:
The problem is left-wingers kept saying the Thatcher government wasn't legitimate because you could add together the Labour and Alliance shares to get more than 50%. The "progressive majority" as it was called.Dair said:
People keep repeating this to give the 37% Government some legitimacy. I don't think it is remotely true. Kippers took as many (if not more) from Labour as from Tory and I don't think there were any significant number of Kippers voting for UKIP to get continued Austerity.AndyJS said:In England the Con + UKIP figure was 55%. Still 51% with Scotland and Wales as I said earlier.
It's a completely bogus argument.0 -
Labour isn't going to get the numbers of seat's they need in one election to be able to form the government.RodCrosby said:Problem for Labour now is how the hell do they win from here?
Back of the envelope says they need something like a 7% swing for a majority, historically unlikely.
But anything less is a hung parliament, with the spectre of the Nats at the table, just like last week. The South and Midlands, as we saw, just won't wear that.
Labour's best hope must be for an independent Scotland, with them taken out of the equation completely...
They must prepare for a ten year recovery with 2020 all about reversing the damage that has been inflicted on them in 2010 and 2015, then the possibility if there of a push towards government in 2025.
Of course if the Lib-Dems hadn't been wiped out there might have been the chance of a Lab/Lib-Dem coalition in 2020, but the Lib-Dems will be in recovery mode next time as well, so that makes a Lab/Lib coalition highly unlikely.
I think we've got another decade of Conservative rule and Labour out of power for 15 years minimum.
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In a proportional system using geographical areas, simply have 34% of the seats left vacant. Then areas with higher turnout would get more say in parliament.Flightpathl said:
I repeat - the SNP would not get any seats as they would not get above the 5% barrier.Sunil_Prasannan said:
In any event how can a proportional system not take into account the 34% who did not vote?0 -
TSE So In's lead already only 9% and less than No won by in Scotland0
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No one knows what 5 years will hold. I remember people saying Labour would never win again in 1992.RodCrosby said:2020
"and all the polls say Labour are 6 points ahead, an amazing turnaround from 2015, for the New New Labour party. However, experts say Labour are still likely to fall short of an overall majority. Labour leader Mary Creagh has ruled out any kind of deal with the SNP. She has even written it in her own blood on the wall of Labour Party HQ in London..."
Voters: "Just show me the box marked Conservative..."0 -
You didn't get my point. The law also says the seats will be averaged. Many of the larger seats are now Labour. East Ham, for example.Life_ina_market_town said:
If the boundaries are based on those registered to vote at the election, the seat distribution will be as follows:surbiton said:Some of the larger constituencies are now Labour.
England: 502 (-31)
Wales: 29 (-11)
Scotland: 53 (-6)
Northern Ireland: 16 (-2)
Given the massive reduction in seats in Wales and Isle of Wight fix (para 6(1) of schedule 2 to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986), the changes are still likely to benefit the Conservatives.
Is the 600 seat Parliament actually law ? I thought the LDs didn't vote for that.0 -
Tbh, I've never been convinced David Miliband was a Blairite true believer, rather than someone closer to Tony than to Gordon. But he'd have faced the same personal abuse from the Tory press about being weird, from north London, and speaking in pseudo-academic policy wonk-ese. They'd probably have said the same things about his father, as well.The_Apocalypse said:
Nonetheless he was an essentially Blairite candidate who would have likely focused on Middle England, something his brother didn't have in mind.HYUFD said:TA David Miliband was born and brought up in London just like his brother
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You can't really blame people when Alex Salmond was going around saying the SNP would be writing Labour's budget. Hopefully they get FFA and can look on as they squirm.Dair said:
Why, he was as guilty as the Tories for the racist lies about Scotland. He repeated anti-Scottish rhetoric on an hourly basis. If I cost him a seat, good. In reality he just didn't get the votes he needed. He was a failure.MP_SE said:Feel quite sorry for Nige if this is true:
https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/597093924243648512
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It is thanks to Harold Wilson I know where the Scilly Isles are.Flightpathl said:
And smoked a pipe in public and a cigar in private. A good definition of socialism for me.Tim_B said:
- and always seemed to wear Gannex coatsFlightpathl said:
Why can't you have another Harold Wilson?surbiton said:
I don't think Labour would win one single extra vote from Ethnic Minorities if Umunna was the leader. A few Liberals , who still voted Liberal, might come over. But that's about it.HYUFD said:Sandpit Complete crap, Labour has its base of ethnic minority and public sector workers which would only increase under an Umunna leadership, post a close EU referendum it is the Tories who will worry about losing voters to UKIP. But as I said the white working class is in relative decline, there is no future in being UKIP lite for Labour, they will not beat the real thing, to win they have to win back the educated, relatively prosperous suburban middle class who backed Blair and Obama in the US
We need a leader from Middle Britain. Why can't we have another Harold Wilson ? Much criticised while leader even by members of the Labour party, yet won 4 elections.
Well first you need to find someone with... wait for it... Brains. he was an Oxford Don at 21.
Wilson studied PPE by the way...0 -
Jonathan And I remember people saying the Tories would never win a majority again in 2001, including even William Hague privately apparently0
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As an ethnic minority, I personally don't know any BMEs running their droves to the Conservatives/UKIP. But there you go.0
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Saying it's too early to write anything off does not imply anything is ignored.SeanT said:
I remember people saying the Tories might not win a majority for a generation, after 1997.Jonathan said:
No one knows what 5 years will hold. I remember people saying Labour would never win again in 1992.RodCrosby said:2020
"and all the polls say Labour are 6 points ahead, an amazing turnaround from 2015, for the New New Labour party. However, experts say Labour are still likely to fall short of an overall majority. Labour leader Mary Creagh has ruled out any kind of deal with the SNP. She has even written it in her own blood on the wall of Labour Party HQ in London..."
Voters: "Just show me the box marked Conservative..."
And, as it turned out, they were completely right.
Nationalist Scotland (and now UKIP and potentially PC) represent an existential threat to Labour, like nothing your party has seen before. Ignoring this truth is utterly stupid.0 -
Better late than never... or then again maybe not0
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I bet they were all drinking Britvic....SeanT said:
I was just in a Wetherspoons in Angel, Islington (not my normal drinking estab, but the GF likes her cheap Sailor Jerrys). What struck me was how casually, automatically, unthinkingly multiracial it was - black, brown, white, and Polish, English, Spanish, with not even a hint of awareness of racial difference. Just everyone drinking, dancing and snogging (such is modern Britain, or at least London).AndyJS said:
IMO focusing so strongly on ethnicity is one of the problems for the left in the UK today. Voters in Middle England don't have a problem voting for people who happen to be from an ethnic minority like Sajid Javid and Nadhim Zahawi but they don't like it being a big issue.HYUFD said:Surbiton As I posted below there are now 5 million ethnic minority voters in Britain, and Umunna is perfectly placed to appeal to suburban middle Britain even if he loses a few votes to UKIP in Barnsley
And yet there was an elephant not in the room. Islam.0 -
Mary Creagh could be a far better candidate than Cooper.RodCrosby said:2020
"and all the polls say Labour are 6 points ahead, an amazing turnaround from 2015, for the New New Labour party. However, experts say Labour are still likely to fall short of an overall majority. Labour leader Mary Creagh has ruled out any kind of deal with the SNP. She has even written it in her own blood on the wall of Labour Party HQ in London..."
Voters: "Just show me the box marked Conservative..."0 -
GIN1138 Labour needs about a 4% swing to be largest party and a Farron led LDs could perfectly well get at least 25-30 seats and win back some marginals lost to the Tories in the South West. The EU referendum will also shift the Tories right and into division vacating the centre, especially if it is a narrow In0
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11594785/Ukips-new-leader-Suzanne-Evans-is-a-failed-Conservative-general-election-candidate.html
I think it is fair to say they have improved in the last few years!!0 -
lol
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-politics/date-of-next-scottish-referendum
Odds on Paddy Power still being around in 2035?0 -
What 5% threshold?Flightpathl said:
I repeat - the SNP would not get any seats as they would not get above the 5% barrier.Sunil_Prasannan said:
In any event how can a proportional system not take into account the 34% who did not vote?
I'm sure many countries have found a way of not taking account of non-voters. Probably they threaten them with having to read some of the nonsense objections to PR on pb.com and such people decide that voting is preferable.0 -
Lets not forget Ed Miliband presuming the Sikh vote will be backing Labour.isam said:
Why are you even bothering boring on about this? I couldn't care less and it is rather narrow minded and old fashioned to assume that ethnic minorities are going to vote for someone just because they share skin colour anywayHYUFD said:ISAM Well even on the figures of voters there are still 1.2 million more ethnic minority voters than UKIP voters, if more of the 8 million can be persuaded to vote for the UK's first ethnic minority PM that figure would rise further
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/588242783317712896
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The public sector and private sector unions are increasingly divergent. One reason that unemployment did not rise much this recession is that private sector unions cooperated with wage restraint, reduced hours and even zero hours contracts. It is much easier to reverse all of these than to retrain someone who has been on the dole six months. The contrast with the countries of continental Europe is marked.Tim_B said:
I think Labour's problem is deeper than that.RodCrosby said:Problem for Labour now is how the hell do they win from here?
Back of the envelope says they need something like a 7% swing for a majority, historically unlikely.
But anything less is a hung parliament, with the spectre of the Nats at the table, just like last week. The South and Midlands, as we saw, just won't wear that.
Labour's best hope must be for an independent Scotland, with them taken out of the equation completely...
The whole left wing 'working people' nonsense and particularly the association with the unions is way past its sell by date. They need to stop the 'Labour Movement' stuff and just be a political party. As long as they are in hock to the unions they can never change.
Labour needs to take a hard look at what it has to offer in today's economy. Everybody seems to have worked out that the best unemployment benifit is a JOB, so they need to come up with pro-business policies that appeal to aspirational middle class folks who want to earn some good money and better themselves.
You can't do that with 'soak the rich', destroying pensions and lefty policies.0 -
Fox MP SE But as Obama showed an ethnic leader does get more ethnic minority voters to vote for him. Had Obama been white then the 2008 coalition he won would not have been the same. Umunna also built relations with business as Shadow Business Sec0
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You heard it here first...surbiton said:
Mary Creagh could be a far better candidate than Cooper.RodCrosby said:2020
"and all the polls say Labour are 6 points ahead, an amazing turnaround from 2015, for the New New Labour party. However, experts say Labour are still likely to fall short of an overall majority. Labour leader Mary Creagh has ruled out any kind of deal with the SNP. She has even written it in her own blood on the wall of Labour Party HQ in London..."
Voters: "Just show me the box marked Conservative..."0 -
Agreed.Jonathan said:
No one knows what 5 years will hold. I remember people saying Labour would never win again in 1992.RodCrosby said:2020
"and all the polls say Labour are 6 points ahead, an amazing turnaround from 2015, for the New New Labour party. However, experts say Labour are still likely to fall short of an overall majority. Labour leader Mary Creagh has ruled out any kind of deal with the SNP. She has even written it in her own blood on the wall of Labour Party HQ in London..."
Voters: "Just show me the box marked Conservative..."0 -
Labour will win again, of course, but it won't be in 2020. They won't be able to gain the numbers of seats they need in one election.Jonathan said:
No one knows what 5 years will hold. I remember people saying Labour would never win again in 1992.RodCrosby said:2020
"and all the polls say Labour are 6 points ahead, an amazing turnaround from 2015, for the New New Labour party. However, experts say Labour are still likely to fall short of an overall majority. Labour leader Mary Creagh has ruled out any kind of deal with the SNP. She has even written it in her own blood on the wall of Labour Party HQ in London..."
Voters: "Just show me the box marked Conservative..."
I think we're now looking at a long run of Con government (15 years) probably followed by a long run of Lab government...
0 -
America is a country far more obsessed with race than this one. In the UK, class is a more defining factor.HYUFD said:Fox But as Obama showed an ethnic leader does get more ethnic minority voters to vote for them
0 -
I understad that Libertarianism isn't what you want but it doesn't preclude respect for the fallen.MP_SE said:
Quite amusing the liberal left behave like fascists and then have the cheek to accuse others of being fascists.
Penny Dreadful sounds more like a Kipper than anything I have read elsewhere.0 -
With boundary changes and English self determination, I wonder jus how wealthy England can become. Answer : extremely. Fabulously.0
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Problem for Labour, as I've outlined, is essentiallyGIN1138 said:
Labour will win again, of course, but it won't be in 2020. They won't be able to gain the numbers of seats they need in one election.Jonathan said:
No one knows what 5 years will hold. I remember people saying Labour would never win again in 1992.RodCrosby said:2020
"and all the polls say Labour are 6 points ahead, an amazing turnaround from 2015, for the New New Labour party. However, experts say Labour are still likely to fall short of an overall majority. Labour leader Mary Creagh has ruled out any kind of deal with the SNP. She has even written it in her own blood on the wall of Labour Party HQ in London..."
Voters: "Just show me the box marked Conservative..."
I think we're now looking at a long run of Con government (15 years) probably followed by a long run of Lab government...
+100 seats, or ... nothing....0 -
In 2005 Cons had 198 seats to Labs 356. Five years later they were in govt. Who knows whats going to happen this time, but to say a return to govt is impossible is just plain wrong. It can be done.GIN1138 said:
Labour will win again, of course, but it won't be in 2020. They won't be able to gain the numbers of seats they need in one election.Jonathan said:
No one knows what 5 years will hold. I remember people saying Labour would never win again in 1992.RodCrosby said:2020
"and all the polls say Labour are 6 points ahead, an amazing turnaround from 2015, for the New New Labour party. However, experts say Labour are still likely to fall short of an overall majority. Labour leader Mary Creagh has ruled out any kind of deal with the SNP. She has even written it in her own blood on the wall of Labour Party HQ in London..."
Voters: "Just show me the box marked Conservative..."
I think we're now looking at a long run of Con government (15 years) probably followed by a long run of Lab government of course.0 -
Oh yes I forgot you speak for everyone that shares a characteristic with you.The_Apocalypse said:As an ethnic minority, I personally don't know any BMEs running their droves to the Conservatives/UKIP. But there you go.
What are people that take your shoe size watching on telly at the moment generally?0 -
And if you win a constituency, you lose a seat on the list.HYUFD said:No Offence Alan Yes there is because the first vote is for a constituency, you then have a second list vote
0 -
'Where do labour go from here?' I fear this is going to become boring.GIN1138 said:
Labour isn't going to get the numbers of seat's they need in one election to be able to form the government.RodCrosby said:Problem for Labour now is how the hell do they win from here?
...
They must prepare for a ten year recovery with 2020 all about reversing the damage that has been inflicted on them in 2010 and 2015, then the possibility if there of a push towards government in 2025.
Of course if the Lib-Dems hadn't been wiped out there might have been the chance of a Lab/Lib-Dem coalition in 2020, but the Lib-Dems will be in recovery mode next time as well, so that makes a Lab/Lib coalition highly unlikely.
I think we've got another decade of Conservative rule and Labour out of power for 15 years minimum.
In 2005 Labour won 355 seats. After 2015 they have 232. They are 100 behind the Tories. Bad enough though not impossible. However we should remember that 'before' the 2005 election Labour were defending 403 seats. In 1997 they won 418 seats leaving the Tories with just 165.
Frankly 232 is a lot better than 165.
What Labour are lacking is not numbers but leaders.0 -
NOA Which is why it makes sense to vote Labour on the constituency vote and Tory on the list to maximise the unionist vote0
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Hmmm - I think David Miliband came across far less - 'weird' and more at ease with himself than Ed Miliband. He probably wouldn't have pursued a 35% strategy, and most likely would have accepted the consensus on where he centre ground is, rather than thinking it shifted leftwards. I also don't think David Miliband would have as outspoken against Murdoch, and been so keen to implement the Leverson recommendations, or adopted Miliband's tax polices - which would have meant a large part of the press wouldn't have been so against him as they were Ed Miliband. And on his father, I think it's clear that while Ed was considered centre-left (which is practically a Marxist to the Daily Mail) David was more to the right of the party.DecrepitJohnL said:
Tbh, I've never been convinced David Miliband was a Blairite true believer, rather than someone closer to Tony than to Gordon. But he'd have faced the same personal abuse from the Tory press about being weird, from north London, and speaking in pseudo-academic policy wonk-ese. They'd probably have said the same things about his father, as well.The_Apocalypse said:
Nonetheless he was an essentially Blairite candidate who would have likely focused on Middle England, something his brother didn't have in mind.HYUFD said:TA David Miliband was born and brought up in London just like his brother
0 -
Jonathan Indeed, Cameron had to gain more seats in 2010 to become PM than the next Labour leader will in 2020, noone can predict the future0
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Sorry if already posted but what do people think about Dan Jarvis MP as Labour's next leader? A former Parachute Regiment Commander,single father for a time after his wife died of cancer, Barnsley MP, not associated with divisions of Blair-left etc
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labours-next-leader-steely-eyed-56709530 -
The Apocalypse Class has declined as a voting factor, last week Labour won more votes in prosperous the Wirral, Chester and Hove than it did in working class Rugby, Romford and Chatham. BME do, on average, tend to vote more Labour than Tory0
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In America, yes. But British BME groups are more diverse than Afro-Americans and Hispanics. British asians rightly often do not identify with Black Africans. Indeed many Leicester Asians fled here as refugees from persecution by Black Africans and feel closer afinity with British values than those of their persecutors.HYUFD said:Fox But as Obama showed an ethnic leader does get more ethnic minority voters to vote for them
Chasing votes with identity politics is the way to splinter the country rather than unite it. It is far better to engage with these communities on the same issues as ethnic Britons: Jobs, schools, housing, university fees, health care etc.
0 -
BIB: I didn't mean that I constituted all BMEs in the UK, merely that I was one of them - but nevermind.SeanT said:
Wow. Are you personally "an ethnic minority"? All by yourself? Impressive.The_Apocalypse said:As an ethnic minority, I personally don't know any BMEs running their droves to the Conservatives/UKIP. But there you go.
I guess I might be the only thriller writing Cornish sex memoirist with a prison record and a recent movie deal, but I don't put it on the census form.
0 -
You forget the SNP, and the nightmare for Labour I have outlined.Flightpathl said:
'Where do labour go from here?' I fear this is going to become boring.GIN1138 said:
Labour isn't going to get the numbers of seat's they need in one election to be able to form the government.RodCrosby said:Problem for Labour now is how the hell do they win from here?
...
They must prepare for a ten year recovery with 2020 all about reversing the damage that has been inflicted on them in 2010 and 2015, then the possibility if there of a push towards government in 2025.
Of course if the Lib-Dems hadn't been wiped out there might have been the chance of a Lab/Lib-Dem coalition in 2020, but the Lib-Dems will be in recovery mode next time as well, so that makes a Lab/Lib coalition highly unlikely.
I think we've got another decade of Conservative rule and Labour out of power for 15 years minimum.
In 2005 Labour won 355 seats. After 2015 they have 232. They are 100 behind the Tories. Bad enough though not impossible. However we should remember that 'before' the 2005 election Labour were defending 403 seats. In 1997 they won 418 seats leaving the Tories with just 165.
Frankly 232 is a lot better than 165.
What Labour are lacking is not numbers but leaders.
Labour 1,2,3,4,5,6,7? points ahead in the polls.
SNP are in the mix.
JoeVoter: "F*** that, where's my Tory candidate?"0 -
I'm very reluctant, past and current examples being borne in mind, to suggest that a party can never again achieve something under a FPTP electoral system. Hurdles and obstacles can be created, but given the right set of circumstances, I don't think its possible to ever rule out large parties gaining pluralities and majorities in future.
Look at what was said about Labour in 1992 and the Tories post 1997, as has been mentioned here. Further afield, look at Canada where for ages it looked very, very difficult for the Tories to win a majority government, which they did at the last election. Even India, which has a party system and regional politics that frankly makes ours look exceptionally simple and straightforward, just elected its first majority government in 30 years. Sure, the circumstances need to be there to allow parties to succeed, but to absolutely rule things out occuring under FPTP now looks fairly shortsighted as far as Im concerned.0 -
I never said I did - I was simply providing a different anecdotal evidence to one PBers were.isam said:
Oh yes I forgot you speak for everyone that shares a characteristic with you.The_Apocalypse said:As an ethnic minority, I personally don't know any BMEs running their droves to the Conservatives/UKIP. But there you go.
What are people that take your shoe size watching on telly at the moment generally?0 -
I never said I did - I was simply providing a different anecdotal evidence to one PBers were.isam said:
Oh yes I forgot you speak for everyone that shares a characteristic with you.The_Apocalypse said:As an ethnic minority, I personally don't know any BMEs running their droves to the Conservatives/UKIP. But there you go.
What are people that take your shoe size watching on telly at the moment generally?0 -
Repeat there would not be a Union if you gerrymandered the voting system in such a way.Flightpathl said:
I repeat - the SNP would not get any seats as they would not get above the 5% barrier.Sunil_Prasannan said:
In any event how can a proportional system not take into account the 34% who did not vote?0 -
Yeah, I doubt such a system would ever happen given the regional differences.Dair said:
Repeat there would not be a Union if you gerrymandered the voting system in such a way.Flightpathl said:
I repeat - the SNP would not get any seats as they would not get above the 5% barrier.Sunil_Prasannan said:
In any event how can a proportional system not take into account the 34% who did not vote?0 -
Sorry if already posted but what do people think about Dan Jarvis MP as Labour's next leader? A former Parachute Regiment Commander,single father for a time after his wife died of cancer, Barnsley MP, not associated with divisions of Blair-left etc
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labours-next-leader-steely-eyed-56709530 -
He'd be a good choice for Labour - but christ don't ask PB.com if you want to know the right answer. Head to a pub in Nuneaton !pinkrose said:Sorry if already posted but what do people think about Dan Jarvis MP as Labour's next leader? A former Parachute Regiment Commander,single father for a time after his wife died of cancer, Barnsley MP, not associated with divisions of Blair-left etc
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labours-next-leader-steely-eyed-56709530 -
Totally different situationsHYUFD said:Fox MP SE But as Obama showed an ethnic leader does get more ethnic minority voters to vote for him. Had Obama been white then the 2008 coalition he won would not have been the same. Umunna also built relations with business as Shadow Business Sec
The USA is only 77.7% white and 13% specifically are black.
The UK is 87% white and 3% specifically are black
U.S. Turnout is only 60% and much lower in the minorities. The UK turnout is higher at 67%0 -
To give you your dues I doubt there are many 20 yr old female BAME lefty warriors that spend their Saturday nights talking politics online with men two or three times her age so you are quite uniqueThe_Apocalypse said:
I never said I did - I was simply providing a different anecdotal evidence to one PBers were.isam said:
Oh yes I forgot you speak for everyone that shares a characteristic with you.The_Apocalypse said:As an ethnic minority, I personally don't know any BMEs running their droves to the Conservatives/UKIP. But there you go.
What are people that take your shoe size watching on telly at the moment generally?0 -
Do you think even very very strong (Sturgeonesque in Scotland) leadership ratings can't win the next Election for Labour with the SNP about ?RodCrosby said:
You forget the SNP, and the nightmare for Labour I have outlined.Flightpathl said:
'Where do labour go from here?' I fear this is going to become boring.GIN1138 said:
Labour isn't going to get the numbers of seat's they need in one election to be able to form the government.RodCrosby said:Problem for Labour now is how the hell do they win from here?
...
They must prepare for a ten year recovery with 2020 all about reversing the damage that has been inflicted on them in 2010 and 2015, then the possibility if there of a push towards government in 2025.
Of course if the Lib-Dems hadn't been wiped out there might have been the chance of a Lab/Lib-Dem coalition in 2020, but the Lib-Dems will be in recovery mode next time as well, so that makes a Lab/Lib coalition highly unlikely.
I think we've got another decade of Conservative rule and Labour out of power for 15 years minimum.
In 2005 Labour won 355 seats. After 2015 they have 232. They are 100 behind the Tories. Bad enough though not impossible. However we should remember that 'before' the 2005 election Labour were defending 403 seats. In 1997 they won 418 seats leaving the Tories with just 165.
Frankly 232 is a lot better than 165.
What Labour are lacking is not numbers but leaders.
Labour 1,2,3,4,5,6,7? points ahead in the polls.
SNP are in the mix.
JoeVoter: "F*** that, where's my Tory candidate?"0 -
Race has never been (or at least today is not) the problem. Cultural differences are. Multiculturalism which is supported by Labour, the Tories, the Liberals and UKIP is the problem. It won't stop. Without a strong domestic culture I really don;t see what England can do., it won't create any civic society.SeanT said:
I was just in a Wetherspoons in Angel, Islington (not my normal drinking estab, but the GF likes her cheap Sailor Jerrys). What struck me was how casually, automatically, unthinkingly multiracial it was - black, brown, white, and Polish, English, Spanish, with not even a hint of awareness of racial difference. Just everyone drinking, dancing and snogging (such is modern Britain, or at least London).AndyJS said:
IMO focusing so strongly on ethnicity is one of the problems for the left in the UK today. Voters in Middle England don't have a problem voting for people who happen to be from an ethnic minority like Sajid Javid and Nadhim Zahawi but they don't like it being a big issue.HYUFD said:Surbiton As I posted below there are now 5 million ethnic minority voters in Britain, and Umunna is perfectly placed to appeal to suburban middle Britain even if he loses a few votes to UKIP in Barnsley
And yet there was an elephant not in the room. Islam.0 -
Fantastic back story, sounds like a wonderful bloke, etc, etc.pinkrose said:Sorry if already posted but what do people think about Dan Jarvis MP as Labour's next leader? A former Parachute Regiment Commander,single father for a time after his wife died of cancer, Barnsley MP, not associated with divisions of Blair-left etc
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labours-next-leader-steely-eyed-5670953
But on the youtube clips I watched, he didn't seem to come across that well at all. Perhaps he can find a way to loosen up a bit or something?
I dunno. Voters want humans for politicians.0 -
You're right I'm pretty rare (although I'm studying for exams at the mo, which is why I'm having less nights out than usual). You usually don't meet 21, BAME, feminist, arsenal-loving, Charlie-Brooker-loving girls on political blogs. Still, I do know many young people of all different kinds of backgrounds, including young BMEs.isam said:
To give you your dues I doubt there are many 20 yr old female BAME lefty warriors that spend their Saturday nights talking politics online with men two or three times her age so you are quite uniqueThe_Apocalypse said:
I never said I did - I was simply providing a different anecdotal evidence to one PBers were.isam said:
Oh yes I forgot you speak for everyone that shares a characteristic with you.The_Apocalypse said:As an ethnic minority, I personally don't know any BMEs running their droves to the Conservatives/UKIP. But there you go.
What are people that take your shoe size watching on telly at the moment generally?
0 -
I don't catch your drift. Elaborate!Pulpstar said:
Do you think even very very strong (Sturgeonesque in Scotland) leadership ratings can't win the next Election for Labour with the SNP about ?RodCrosby said:
You forget the SNP, and the nightmare for Labour I have outlined.Flightpathl said:
'Where do labour go from here?' I fear this is going to become boring.GIN1138 said:
Labour isn't going to get the numbers of seat's they need in one election to be able to form the government.RodCrosby said:Problem for Labour now is how the hell do they win from here?
...
They must prepare for a ten year recovery with 2020 all about reversing the damage that has been inflicted on them in 2010 and 2015, then the possibility if there of a push towards government in 2025.
Of course if the Lib-Dems hadn't been wiped out there might have been the chance of a Lab/Lib-Dem coalition in 2020, but the Lib-Dems will be in recovery mode next time as well, so that makes a Lab/Lib coalition highly unlikely.
I think we've got another decade of Conservative rule and Labour out of power for 15 years minimum.
In 2005 Labour won 355 seats. After 2015 they have 232. They are 100 behind the Tories. Bad enough though not impossible. However we should remember that 'before' the 2005 election Labour were defending 403 seats. In 1997 they won 418 seats leaving the Tories with just 165.
Frankly 232 is a lot better than 165.
What Labour are lacking is not numbers but leaders.
Labour 1,2,3,4,5,6,7? points ahead in the polls.
SNP are in the mix.
JoeVoter: "F*** that, where's my Tory candidate?"0 -
There are a lot of pro-Jarvis posts on the previous thread iirc but most seemed to come from the right. The consensus was that he has an impressive biography. Whether he has the necessary political experience to lead the party, or the popularity within it to be elected, are other questions.pinkrose said:Sorry if already posted but what do people think about Dan Jarvis MP as Labour's next leader? A former Parachute Regiment Commander,single father for a time after his wife died of cancer, Barnsley MP, not associated with divisions of Blair-left etc
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labours-next-leader-steely-eyed-56709530 -
I can't blame people for not understanding a joke? The Tories were putting up billboards with Ed Miliband in Alex and then Nicola's pocket. Then posters about Nicola puppeteering miliband.MP_SE said:
You can't really blame people when Alex Salmond was going around saying the SNP would be writing Labour's budget. Hopefully they get FFA and can look on as they squirm.Dair said:
Why, he was as guilty as the Tories for the racist lies about Scotland. He repeated anti-Scottish rhetoric on an hourly basis. If I cost him a seat, good. In reality he just didn't get the votes he needed. He was a failure.MP_SE said:Feel quite sorry for Nige if this is true:
https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/597093924243648512
The only people to blame for Labour's defeat are Labour. The only people to blame for the end of the Union are the Tories and their UKIP friends.0 -
Popularity is an issue, but given he commanded men in the army, I think he can command a political partyDecrepitJohnL said:
There are a lot of pro-Jarvis posts on the previous thread iirc but most seemed to come from the right. The consensus was that he has an impressive biography. Whether he has the necessary political experience to lead the party, or the popularity within it to be elected, are other questions.pinkrose said:Sorry if already posted but what do people think about Dan Jarvis MP as Labour's next leader? A former Parachute Regiment Commander,single father for a time after his wife died of cancer, Barnsley MP, not associated with divisions of Blair-left etc
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labours-next-leader-steely-eyed-5670953
0 -
I have met her. She is quite level headed. But the Daily Mail's of this world will find something.RodCrosby said:
You heard it here first...surbiton said:
Mary Creagh could be a far better candidate than Cooper.RodCrosby said:2020
"and all the polls say Labour are 6 points ahead, an amazing turnaround from 2015, for the New New Labour party. However, experts say Labour are still likely to fall short of an overall majority. Labour leader Mary Creagh has ruled out any kind of deal with the SNP. She has even written it in her own blood on the wall of Labour Party HQ in London..."
Voters: "Just show me the box marked Conservative..."
People tend to forget that Labour's win in 1997 was a direct result of September 1992 - the ERM debacle. So, when Blair took over after John Smith's death, Labour was 20% ahead and Blair was far more difficult to attack. The Tory credibility was practically zero. Brown was also a capable shadow Chancellor.
The Right wing gutter press still attacked Cherie about her CND past but times were different. They could not land a blow.
Iraq changed all that, particularly with Labour supporters.0 -
Dair And the only people to blame for voting to keep Scotland in the Union are the Scots themselves, only 35% of Scots voted SNP on Thursday, about 50% of Scots voted No last September0
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'permission to speak, sir!'The_Apocalypse said:
Popularity is an issue, but given he commanded men in the army, I think he can command a political partyDecrepitJohnL said:
There are a lot of pro-Jarvis posts on the previous thread iirc but most seemed to come from the right. The consensus was that he has an impressive biography. Whether he has the necessary political experience to lead the party, or the popularity within it to be elected, are other questions.pinkrose said:Sorry if already posted but what do people think about Dan Jarvis MP as Labour's next leader? A former Parachute Regiment Commander,single father for a time after his wife died of cancer, Barnsley MP, not associated with divisions of Blair-left etc
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labours-next-leader-steely-eyed-5670953
?0 -
On topic with the poll showing 40% Tory support I'm not remotely surprised. People like to back a winner.
I said before the election that after an SNP landslide we'll see polls showing at least 55% support for independence. These things have a habit of gathering momentum. I'll repeat that now, expect to see a 55% plus level of independence support soon.0 -
How do you feel the budgetary pressures this coalition will be working under impact that? 2010 to 2015 will be a picnic compared to this parliament. Outside of specific areas, we have had more consolidation rather than real reductions. But real departmental reductions are part of the budget now. How are they going to find these £12 billion welfare cuts without seriously pissing off a load of people?SeanT said:
PS Congratulations on your prescient observation that 2015 would be another 1992. You nailed it, unlike me (and others).Jonathan said:
Saying it's too early to write anything off does not imply anything is ignored.SeanT said:
I remember people saying the Tories might not win a majority for a generation, after 1997.Jonathan said:
No one knows what 5 years will hold. I remember people saying Labour would never win again in 1992.RodCrosby said:2020
"and all the polls say Labour are 6 points ahead, an amazing turnaround from 2015, for the New New Labour party. However, experts say Labour are still likely to fall short of an overall majority. Labour leader Mary Creagh has ruled out any kind of deal with the SNP. She has even written it in her own blood on the wall of Labour Party HQ in London..."
Voters: "Just show me the box marked Conservative..."
And, as it turned out, they were completely right.
Nationalist Scotland (and now UKIP and potentially PC) represent an existential threat to Labour, like nothing your party has seen before. Ignoring this truth is utterly stupid.
I shall regard your predictions with the requisite respect, in future.
And in return I will offer sincere advice: I really do think this is not another average defeat for Labour, it is possibly epochal, unless the party learns. Scotland changes everything, and the exciting habit of Not Voting Labour might easily spread southwards.0 -
PT No, Obama also won big margins with the Hispanic and Asian vote, more than Kerry won and got more ethnic minority voters to the polls, not just with Black voters. Of course if Labour got almost all those 3% of black voters to the polls and increased black turnout as Obama did that also is not to be sniffed at. In 2012 ethnic minority turnout in the US actually rose higher than white turnout0
