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SystemSystem Posts: 12,685
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another 3 polls have it neck and neck on MegaPollingWednesday

Final @ComResPolls poll for @DailyMailUK

Con 35% (NC)
Lab 34% (+2)
Lib Dem 9% (NC)
UKIP 12% (-2)
Green 4% (NC)
Others 6% (NC)

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    First - unlike Ed Milli
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/596059455181185024
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    YouGov Nowcast still has Maidstone comfortably Tory. Would be a massive boost for the Libs if they were to take it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    Can we have a table showing the final poll from each pollster?
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    FPT

    Seems to me that the PastVoteWeighting is boosting the UKIP total in the polls more than is justified. Just because someone voted UKIP in the Euro's doesn;t mean that translates to the GE.

    Fact to remember: In most recent Ashcroft in #GreatYarmouth, for example, the raw data [over 1000 respondents] saw Tory Brandon Lewis was 7pts ahead of Labour. After adjusting for Past Vote Weighting from the Kippers, Lewis was deducted 5pts leaving him just 2 ahead of Labour. But Labour wasn't deducted any points at all.

    That's bonkers!

    Last year in the Council elections, where they elect in thirds, 13 seats were up for grabs. UKIP scooped 10 of them on the back of the EU elections. But the 10 were taken equally from Cons [5] and Labour [5]. So why did the Tories get penalised and not Labour in this Bellwether seat?

    Undoubtedly people have voted UKIP in the [recent] past in relatively inconsequential elections but there's no way the extent of that support is mirrored in the General Election polling. My observable doorstep experience is that UKIP support is evaporating in this seaside borough. Helped by a 48% reduction in local unemployment.

    But the Past Vote Weighting wrt UKIP seems to have several problems
    1 It treats a previous UKIP vote in the council or Euro elections equally with the General Election - a heroic assumption
    2 The experience in the marginal seat polling is that the past-vote-weighting is deducted exclusively from the Tory with none from Labour. Just not credible

    So my instinct from all this is that UKIP has been methodologically overstated based on recent voting in council areas where they elect in thirds. And that over-statement has been disproportionately in favour Labour, not the Tories for reasons I can't understand.

    That's what'll come out of the wash-up when the pollsters work out what went wrong.

    BTW, had a nice chat with fmr senior exec of IpsosMori up here in bandit country last week. Lots of stories. NSFW.


    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Daily Record comes out for, nobody.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Stephen Tall ‏@stephentall 11s11 seconds ago
    Amid inevitable LibDem losses, don't forget to look out for 4 possible gains: Montgomeryshire, Maidstone, Watford, Oxford West & Abingdon.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited May 2015
    Well win or lose, despite valiant efforts from the ground troops, the CCHQ campaign has been surprisingly dire. Shockingly so.

    Expected something devastating, but it simply never happened.
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    Why on earth would Maidstone even be in play?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,894
    acf2310 said:

    Why on earth would Maidstone even be in play?

    The sitting MP isn't great..

  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/596059642532356097/photo/1
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    I would like to give a huge thank you to Lynton Crosby for running the worse Tory Election Campaign in my lifetime, add this to the amount of money he has robbed from Tory coffers and he must be up for some kind of award.

    Lynton I salute you!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Everyone piling into the Lib Dems in Maidstone then? ;)

    Their candidate was such an annoying t*t when he was a columnist.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    acf2310 said:

    Why on earth would Maidstone even be in play?

    Helen Grant, it is said, you'd rather go for a meal with Hannibal Lecter than Helen Grant.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    RobD said:

    Can we have a table showing the final poll from each pollster?

    That's the plan for tomorrow when the last batch of polls come out.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    RobD said:

    Can we have a table showing the final poll from each pollster?

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/596059297450172416
  • LaurusLaurus Posts: 10
    acf2310 said:

    Why on earth would Maidstone even be in play?

    Big Con->UKIP switch plus Lab-Lib tacticals holding up.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,914
    Jonathan said:

    Well win or lose, despite valiant efforts from the ground troops, the CCHQ campaign has been surprisingly dire. Shockingly so.

    Expected something devastating, but it simply never happened.

    Agree, they've been dire and Cameron is such a PR fake. With a leavening of entitlement and arrogance.

    But basically, they just haven't spread the spoils of recovery around enough. If they'd thrown a few more crumbs to ordinary folk they could have cruised to a majority.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    compouter2 said:

    I would like to give a huge thank you to Lynton Crosby for running the worse Tory Election Campaign in my lifetime, add this to the amount of money he has robbed from Tory coffers and he must be up for some kind of award.

    Lynton I salute you!

    #Edstone Hell Yes!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    edited May 2015
    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/596059642532356097/photo/1

    Scots trying to boss the English around? A flavour of what is to come, perhaps? :p
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,618
    compouter2 said:

    I would like to give a huge thank you to Lynton Crosby for running the worse Tory Election Campaign in my lifetime, add this to the amount of money he has robbed from Tory coffers and he must be up for some kind of award.

    Lynton I salute you!

    I think all the parties should be asking for their money back from their campaign directors.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    MarkHopkins said:

    RobD said:

    Can we have a table showing the final poll from each pollster?

    twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/596059297450172416
    Thanks and thanks TSE.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    MarkHopkins said:

    RobD said:

    Can we have a table showing the final poll from each pollster?

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/596059297450172416
    UKIP fell on the floor in the Yougov online ;-)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The herding of the polls, mentioned by SeanT yesterday, now complete. LOL it makes one cry.
  • LaurusLaurus Posts: 10
    compouter2 said:

    I would like to give a huge thank you to Lynton Crosby for running the worse Tory Election Campaign in my lifetime, add this to the amount of money he has robbed from Tory coffers and he must be up for some kind of award.

    Lynton I salute you!

    Agreed.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/596059642532356097/photo/1

    Hope it gets shown more down here,good for the tories if so.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Lynton has really screwed this up.

    Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.


    Idiot.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    MikeK said:

    The herding of the polls, mentioned by SeanT yesterday, now complete. LOL it makes one cry.

    Makes one happy!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    edited May 2015
    Laurus said:

    acf2310 said:

    Why on earth would Maidstone even be in play?

    Big Con->UKIP switch plus Lab-Lib tacticals holding up.
    There's going to be a few even traditionally super-safe Tory seats in Kent made slightly less super-safe after May 7.

    UKIP influence, directly or indirectly.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    It's cross-back-over-over-back-over-cross time on betfair's next PM market;

    Dave 2.02
    Edm 2.00

    http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=116758783&ex=1&origin=MRL
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    ITV at 10.40: 60 years of Unforgettable Election Moments....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    FPT:
    peter_from_putney said:

    Many thanks for that and good luck ..... you deserve it!
    Will you be at the count and declaration btw?

    Yes, Peter. But the votes don't start counting until 2.00 am though, so says my notification letter! Yawn.....and that is without recounts!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Do the BBC and Sky poll of polls still have the Tories 1% ahead with the latest polls?
  • LaurusLaurus Posts: 10
    IOS said:

    Lynton has really screwed this up.

    Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.


    Idiot.

    Tories had a good story to tell about their record and the future.

    Instead they went negative and sent their press pack out to "Kinnockise" a fundamentally competent, decent man in Ed Miliband.

    Epic fail.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,894
    KentRising said:

    Laurus said:

    acf2310 said:

    Why on earth would Maidstone even be in play?

    Big Con->UKIP switch plus Lab-Lib tacticals holding up.
    There's going to be a few even traditionally safe Tory seats in Kent made slightly less safe after May 7. UKIP.

    I think Labour may have a very, very outside chance of a gain in Gravesham.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Tom Newton Dunn ✔ @tnewtondunn

    Media Standards Trust say Daily Mirror is the most partisan paper. Oddly, @campbellclaret isn't moaning about that; http://www.sunnation.co.uk/the-labour-sup

    Best thing you tweeted for a while.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Computer

    Damn right - Hodges clones like Kelner were predicting 6 point Tory leads!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,032
    Maidstone doesn't seem inconceivable as a Lib Dem gain. There's a sizeable Labour vote to squeeze and as I think I've said before I expect some anti-Tory tactical voting rewind.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    bunnco said:

    FPT

    Seems to me that the PastVoteWeighting is boosting the UKIP total in the polls more than is justified. Just because someone voted UKIP in the Euro's doesn;t mean that translates to the GE.

    Fact to remember: In most recent Ashcroft in #GreatYarmouth, for example, the raw data [over 1000 respondents] saw Tory Brandon Lewis was 7pts ahead of Labour. After adjusting for Past Vote Weighting from the Kippers, Lewis was deducted 5pts leaving him just 2 ahead of Labour. But Labour wasn't deducted any points at all.

    That's bonkers!

    Last year in the Council elections, where they elect in thirds, 13 seats were up for grabs. UKIP scooped 10 of them on the back of the EU elections. But the 10 were taken equally from Cons [5] and Labour [5]. So why did the Tories get penalised and not Labour in this Bellwether seat?

    Undoubtedly people have voted UKIP in the [recent] past in relatively inconsequential elections but there's no way the extent of that support is mirrored in the General Election polling. My observable doorstep experience is that UKIP support is evaporating in this seaside borough. Helped by a 48% reduction in local unemployment.

    But the Past Vote Weighting wrt UKIP seems to have several problems
    1 It treats a previous UKIP vote in the council or Euro elections equally with the General Election - a heroic assumption
    2 The experience in the marginal seat polling is that the past-vote-weighting is deducted exclusively from the Tory with none from Labour. Just not credible

    So my instinct from all this is that UKIP has been methodologically overstated based on recent voting in council areas where they elect in thirds. And that over-statement has been disproportionately in favour Labour, not the Tories for reasons I can't understand.

    That's what'll come out of the wash-up when the pollsters work out what went wrong.

    BTW, had a nice chat with fmr senior exec of IpsosMori up here in bandit country last week. Lots of stories. NSFW.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot

    Binnco - a complete twot!
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    IOS said:

    Lynton has really screwed this up.

    Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.


    Idiot.

    Nah, Ed was the weakest link. Six weeks of Ed is Crap, Ed cannot eat bacon buttys and Ed ate my hamster would give us a Tory majority nailed on. Did I tell you he would get slaughtered in the debates as well, that much so, that Dave didn't have to do them all.

    Anyway, where is my £500,000 I'm off to Aus.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Laurus

    Exactly - you think they would have learned their lesson from how they treated Brown.

    Instead of simply arguing he wasn't up to it - they attacked for writing discrete letters to family soldiers. Cretins

  • glwglw Posts: 10,516
    Tykejohnno said:

    Media Standards Trust say Daily Mirror is the most partisan paper.

    I would have said that was one of the most blindingly obvious facts about newspapers. I can't imagine that they spent more than 30 seconds thinking about the issue.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    There seems no evidence that the LibDems will achieve anything like the 14% the Wisdom index has recently been awarding them....

    Breaking double figures tomorrow will be an achievement.

    And that is just seats :-)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    compouter2 said:

    MikeK said:

    The herding of the polls, mentioned by SeanT yesterday, now complete. LOL it makes one cry.

    Makes one happy!
    Why would you be happy with twisted polling?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Compouter

    He has earned over £1.5 Million! from the Tories.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,618
    MarqueeMark said:

    There seems no evidence that the LibDems will achieve anything like the 14% the Wisdom index has recently been awarding them....

    Breaking double figures tomorrow will be an achievement.

    And that is just seats :-)

    When does the Lib Dem campaign start? Have they announced their manifesto yet?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    The Tories didn't really seem to play the economy card very hard. Maybe we'll find they didn't have to, but tonight it feels like an odd oversight.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    It is worrying that Survation were not able to measure the second or third decimal place and confirm that the tie is a universal law of nature.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    compouter2 said:

    IOS said:

    Lynton has really screwed this up.

    Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.


    Idiot.

    Nah, Ed was the weakest link. Six weeks of Ed is Crap, Ed cannot eat bacon buttys and Ed ate my hamster would give us a Tory majority nailed on. Did I tell you he would get slaughtered in the debates as well, that much so, that Dave didn't have to do them all.

    Anyway, where is my £500,000 I'm off to Aus.
    The little matter of the cost of the Edstone - now that's funny.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983
    bigjohnowls Posts: 4,484
    10:28PM
    I reckon Dave next PM on Betfair lasts less than next 60mins.

    LAB most seats at 4.9 will tighten too

    bigjohnowls Posts: 4,485
    10:30PM
    Should have said 6 mins its CROSSOVER already

    BJO main forecast is EICIPM will that be right too!!!
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/596059455181185024

    Genius
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 1,017
    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the eve of poll SUPER ARSE with added SUPER APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 5th May Projection) :

    Con 302 (-2) .. Lab 251 (+2) .. LibDem 28 (NC) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 24 seats short of a majority

    Turnout Projection .. 68% (+0.5)

    Surely this should be the leader all these other "so called polls" are worthless.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    Newsnight seems to be a party election broadcast for the Labour Party. Cockerill doing a Miliband profile.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Jonathan said:

    The Tories didn't really seem to play the economy card very hard. Maybe we'll find they didn't have to, but tonight it feels like an odd oversight.

    I think they had to go with something else because despite the facts of improving economy it is not felt in the type of seats they need to win
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Final Seat Prediction (changes on 3 weeks ago):
    Share

    Lab 34 (+2) Con 34 (-1) LibD 9 (-2) UKIP 13 (+1)

    Seats

    Lab 289 (+23) Con 272 (-15) SNP 48 (-) LibD 20 (-7) UKIP 1 (-) Grn 1 (-) PC 1 (-1)

    Going bullish on Lab after zero swingback.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    "25% of those likely to vote are undecided or may change their mind before tomorrow" does sound the mother of all arse-covering!

    As a Tory majority gets revealed, the pollsters shrug and say "25% of them did change their minds. We got that right! Yay for us..."
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    SeanT said:

    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/596059642532356097/photo/1

    Fuck off Scotland.

    No disrespect.

    But, fuck off.
    Tough times for the union.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,618
    KentRising said:

    Newsnight seems to be a party election broadcast for the Labour Party. Cockerill doing a Miliband profile.

    No surely not...I guess that happens when you have a staff that is 90% former Guardian employees spending 90% of the time interviewing current Guardian employees. And they wonder why their numbers are through the floor, kinda of like the Guardian circulation.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    I have been surprised the Tories haven't hammered Labour on NHS Wales vs NHS England.

    For 50 years Labour lie about Tory intentions towards the NHS at elections. The Wales vs England comparison would have killed Labours favourite narrative stone dead.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SeanT said:

    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/596059642532356097/photo/1

    Fuck off Scotland.

    No disrespect.

    But, fuck off.
    LOL - that's why I love seanT .

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    edited May 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    acf2310 said:

    Why on earth would Maidstone even be in play?

    Helen Grant, it is said, you'd rather go for a meal with Hannibal Lecter than Helen Grant.
    I'm very shocked about Maidstone, if true. That's very unlucky.

    What makes her such poor company?

    I know she's a CCHQ pushed A-lister. They're doing the same this time too, in safe seats, just under the radar.

    The nickname for my local Tory candidate (in ultra-safe Hampshire NE) is Mr. Party Line.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    KentRising said:

    Newsnight seems to be a party election broadcast for the Labour Party. Cockerill doing a Miliband profile.

    Calm down, dear. If you wait a while there might be a profile of Cameron.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    SeanT said:

    The Tories have lost the campaign, and will probably be the smaller party tomorrow.

    On the upside, Labour are nowhere NEAR a majority and will be forced to eat crow by Sturgeon, possibly killing the Labour party long term.

    Lose lose lose lose. Everyone loses. LOSE. The Loser Election.

    I hope we've seen the last of international geniuses like Lynton Crosby and David Axlerod.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    edited May 2015
    Based on OGH's final chart Tories lead in 3 of final polls, Labour in 1 and 4 are tied. Interestingly the one with the Labour lead has an unusually high UKIP total on 16% which has lowered the Tory total
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,742
    Neil said:

    SeanT said:

    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/596059642532356097/photo/1

    Fuck off Scotland.

    No disrespect.

    But, fuck off.
    Tough times for the union.

    This is what unionism looks like. You don't tell us things, we tell you things.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    SeanT said:

    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/596059642532356097/photo/1

    Fuck off Scotland.

    No disrespect.

    But, fuck off.
    Well said
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    SeanT said:

    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/596059642532356097/photo/1

    Fuck off Scotland.

    No disrespect.

    But, fuck off.
    It's only to save you from youselves you know.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    I don't think you can deny that Labour are better at politics.

    It is a pity they are crap at government historically.

    The one concern with the polls all coalescing at a tie or there abouts is that while it is very pretty, when something looks too good to be true it usually is too good to be true. could they be in for a roasting?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Crosby has well and truly screwed this campaign up.

    Why of why of why didn't they just run a boring campaign on the economy.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Neil said:

    KentRising said:

    Newsnight seems to be a party election broadcast for the Labour Party. Cockerill doing a Miliband profile.

    Calm down, dear. If you wait a while there might be a profile of Cameron.

    When's that,friday ;-)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983
    BenM said:

    Final Seat Prediction (changes on 3 weeks ago):
    Share

    Lab 34 (+2) Con 34 (-1) LibD 9 (-2) UKIP 13 (+1)

    Seats

    Lab 289 (+23) Con 272 (-15) SNP 48 (-) LibD 20 (-7) UKIP 1 (-) Grn 1 (-) PC 1 (-1)

    Going bullish on Lab after zero swingback.

    Copy Cat!! Last BJESUS was
    5.5.15 LAB 287 (288) CON 272(272) (Ed is crap is PM)

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,618
    edited May 2015
    SeanT said:

    The Tories have lost the campaign, and will probably be the smaller party tomorrow.

    On the upside, Labour are nowhere NEAR a majority and will be forced to eat crow by Sturgeon, possibly killing the Labour party long term.

    Lose lose lose lose. Everyone loses. LOSE. The Loser Election.

    I am not sure why anybody is bullish about this potential result. If the polls are correct, we are in for period where nobody will be able to govern properly with certainty and solidarity. We would be better with a decisive result one way or another.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SeanT said:

    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/596059642532356097/photo/1

    Fuck off Scotland.

    No disrespect.

    But, fuck off.
    John Snow not happy
    https://www.twitter.com/HaggisEye/status/596066298628546560
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Tykejohnno said:

    Neil said:

    KentRising said:

    Newsnight seems to be a party election broadcast for the Labour Party. Cockerill doing a Miliband profile.

    Calm down, dear. If you wait a while there might be a profile of Cameron.

    When's that,friday ;-)

    very good
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,263
    Does anyone know how many votes were swapped in the manner of OGH ?

    I've read predictions of 13,000.

    Now assuming that these were anti-Conservative votes and spread over say 100 constituencies that would be 130 votes for each one.

    Which would be enough to cost the Conservatives about 3 to 5 MPs.

  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,914
    Laurus said:

    IOS said:

    Lynton has really screwed this up.

    Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.


    Idiot.

    Tories had a good story to tell about their record and the future.

    Instead they went negative and sent their press pack out to "Kinnockise" a fundamentally competent, decent man in Ed Miliband.

    Epic fail.
    Indeed. The monstering of Ed M has been deeply unpleasant. I'll be delighted if it has indeed failed.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    If nothing else this will do the Tories good as it will remove the myths of the 1992 campaign.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    edited May 2015
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    acf2310 said:

    Why on earth would Maidstone even be in play?

    Helen Grant, it is said, you'd rather go for a meal with Hannibal Lecter than Helen Grant.
    I'm very shocked about Maidstone, if true. That's very unlucky.

    What makes her such poor company?

    I know she's a CCHQ pushed A-lister. They're doing the same this time too, in safe seats, just under the radar.

    The nickname for my local Tory candidate (in ultra-safe Hampshire NE) is Mr. Party Line.
    BBC South East reported on the close fight in Maidstone a week or two ago (and I posted on here about that report), so it's not so much a surprise for people down here. However, I thought then as I do (slightly less confidently) now, it will be a Tory hold. Nothing to go on but gut.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    My Labour chums on PB are having a collective Sheffield this evening. I hope they do not regret it. I fear they will.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    saddo said:

    I have been surprised the Tories haven't hammered Labour on NHS Wales vs NHS England.

    For 50 years Labour lie about Tory intentions towards the NHS at elections. The Wales vs England comparison would have killed Labours favourite narrative stone dead.

    Er, you imposed an unwanted reorganisation on it costing £4bn, dying in a ditch in a battle with the Lords to preserve certain clauses that could only be interpreted as opening the service up to colossal privatisation.

    Then dropping them just to get the dogs breakfast through as you couldn't be seen to fail at that.

    It was a massive political folly.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Southam

    When you paying me that meal you owe me. Ed is still leader. And its voting time.

    You lost!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    IOS said:

    If nothing else this will do the Tories good as it will remove the myths of the 1992 campaign.

    Shouldn't this comment wait until after the votes are counted? :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,618
    edited May 2015
    Monksfield said:

    Laurus said:

    IOS said:

    Lynton has really screwed this up.

    Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.


    Idiot.

    Tories had a good story to tell about their record and the future.

    Instead they went negative and sent their press pack out to "Kinnockise" a fundamentally competent, decent man in Ed Miliband.

    Epic fail.
    Indeed. The monstering of Ed M has been deeply unpleasant. I'll be delighted if it has indeed failed.
    Come on guys, lets put this in perspective, the attacks on Miliband have been nothing like the level of Kinnock or Thatcher got. Miliband has certain got negative treatment, but lets not forget the shit Cameron got in 2009/2010, Mirror through his bins, following him around for weeks upon end waiting for him to do something dodgy etc.

    I don't agree with any of it, but just saying, we are no were near the level of dancing on Thatcher grave stuff.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    Casino_Royale said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories have lost the campaign, and will probably be the smaller party tomorrow.

    On the upside, Labour are nowhere NEAR a majority and will be forced to eat crow by Sturgeon, possibly killing the Labour party long term.

    Lose lose lose lose. Everyone loses. LOSE. The Loser Election.

    I hope we've seen the last of international geniuses like Lynton Crosby and David Axlerod.
    Here f*cking here !
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    I am confused at the the joy of those labour fans at the final poll results. Labour are only ahead in one of eleven. A year ago who would have predicted that. In fact Ogh was telling us to pile into labour at 5/4 for an overall majority.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    SouthamObserver said:

    My Labour chums on PB are having a collective Sheffield this evening. I hope they do not regret it. I fear they will.

    They're alllllllrrrrrriiiiiiigggghhhhhtttt!!!!!! meanwhile back in the marginals............
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    OMG my ELBOW is getting a little strained!

  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,914
    Tykejohnno said:

    compouter2 said:

    IOS said:

    Lynton has really screwed this up.

    Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.


    Idiot.

    Nah, Ed was the weakest link. Six weeks of Ed is Crap, Ed cannot eat bacon buttys and Ed ate my hamster would give us a Tory majority nailed on. Did I tell you he would get slaughtered in the debates as well, that much so, that Dave didn't have to do them all.

    Anyway, where is my £500,000 I'm off to Aus.
    The little matter of the cost of the Edstone - now that's funny.
    Whatever the idiotic EdStone did cost, I suspect it was a fraction of what RW frothers are bandying about.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories have lost the campaign, and will probably be the smaller party tomorrow.

    On the upside, Labour are nowhere NEAR a majority and will be forced to eat crow by Sturgeon, possibly killing the Labour party long term.

    Lose lose lose lose. Everyone loses. LOSE. The Loser Election.

    I am not sure why anybody is bullish about this potential result. If the polls are correct, we are in for period where nobody will be able to govern properly with certainty and solidarity. We would be better with a decisive result one way or another.
    100% agree
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    SouthamObserver said:

    My Labour chums on PB are having a collective Sheffield this evening. I hope they do not regret it. I fear they will.

    Not all of us. Do think the CCHQ campaign sucked though. Expected a storm that never came.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Biased BBC. Newsnight is practically a PEB for the Tories, they're doing a profile of Cameron.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    SouthamObserver said:

    My Labour chums on PB are having a collective Sheffield this evening. I hope they do not regret it. I fear they will.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROKXlvYMKQc

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ogt6njXU9Cg
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    A lot of counting unhatched chickens being counted tonight.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/596059642532356097/photo/1

    Fuck off Scotland.

    No disrespect.

    But, fuck off.
    John Snow not happy
    https://www.twitter.com/HaggisEye/status/596066298628546560
    Labour losing Scotland must hurt for the old lefty.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Monksfield said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    compouter2 said:

    IOS said:

    Lynton has really screwed this up.

    Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.


    Idiot.

    Nah, Ed was the weakest link. Six weeks of Ed is Crap, Ed cannot eat bacon buttys and Ed ate my hamster would give us a Tory majority nailed on. Did I tell you he would get slaughtered in the debates as well, that much so, that Dave didn't have to do them all.

    Anyway, where is my £500,000 I'm off to Aus.
    The little matter of the cost of the Edstone - now that's funny.
    Whatever the idiotic EdStone did cost, I suspect it was a fraction of what RW frothers are bandying about.
    Go on,have a guess.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    currystar said:

    I am confused at the the joy of those labour fans at the final poll results. Labour are only ahead in one of eleven.

    I think it's the expectation that being about level in the polls means Labour leading in seats. Given what could happen in Scotland I'm not so sure that follows automatically. Should be exciting tomorrow!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    Seems some on here have decided the GE is now won by labour so really no need for anyone to vote tomorrow then. Just elect the Government by opinion polls and save a lot of money
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,742
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories have lost the campaign, and will probably be the smaller party tomorrow.

    On the upside, Labour are nowhere NEAR a majority and will be forced to eat crow by Sturgeon, possibly killing the Labour party long term.

    Lose lose lose lose. Everyone loses. LOSE. The Loser Election.

    I am not sure why anybody is bullish about this potential result. If the polls are correct, we are in for period where nobody will be able to govern properly with certainty and solidarity. We would be better with a decisive result one way or another.
    There are no crises on the horizon for the UK; this isn't dangerous-deficit time any more. An absence of strong government would have the same beneficial impact on the UK that it has had on the USA in the last five years, where the recovery is continuing successfully, while large majorities have been of little use for France, Spain or Italy.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SeanT said:

    The Tories have lost the campaign, and will probably be the smaller party tomorrow.

    On the upside, Labour are nowhere NEAR a majority and will be forced to eat crow by Sturgeon, possibly killing the Labour party long term.

    Lose lose lose lose. Everyone loses. LOSE. The Loser Election.

    I am not sure why anybody is bullish about this potential result. If the polls are correct, we are in for period where nobody will be able to govern properly with certainty and solidarity. We would be better with a decisive result one way or another.
    the big question is how will the markets respond and what will happen to our debt interest payments???
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Neil said:

    Biased BBC. Newsnight is practically a PEB for the Tories, they're doing a profile of Cameron.

    They've just done a profile of Ed.
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