If Lab do end up with most seats tomorrow, Tories will have really shot themselves in the foot spending somany of the last few days on the "legitimacy of 2nd place forming government" meme.
Also, pretty amazing that the Telegraph has gone for the headline "Don't do something you'll regret". Is that really their inspiring summation of the case for Cameron?
The Tories have lost the campaign, and will probably be the smaller party tomorrow.
On the upside, Labour are nowhere NEAR a majority and will be forced to eat crow by Sturgeon, possibly killing the Labour party long term.
Lose lose lose lose. Everyone loses. LOSE. The Loser Election.
I am not sure why anybody is bullish about this potential result. If the polls are correct, we are in for period where nobody will be able to govern properly with certainty and solidarity. We would be better with a decisive result one way or another.
There are no crises on the horizon for the UK; this isn't dangerous-deficit time any more. An absence of strong government would have the same beneficial impact on the UK that it has had on the USA in the last five years, where the recovery is continuing successfully, while large majorities have been of little use for France, Spain or Italy.
US is a terrible example, it has been logged jammed for years. You seem to be forgetting on things like those moths of uncertainty of having to pass the laws extending debt ceiling etc. Ask any American, from any side of the political spectrum, are you happy with the way things are working out...and it wont be a positive one.
Nothing is getting done and I think Obama time in office will be remembered in history as first black president and......well first black president..
Back in 2012 you were perhaps the biggest BritNat Englishman.
Have you changed your mind ?
Nope. This is just unionism. Hey Scotland, you don't tell us things, we tell you things. We're bigger, and you should be grateful for all the Tory governments you didn't vote for. Better together.
So here is the question. When will we reach peak over excitement tomorrow. Will it be when there are very bad swings for Labour in the north east or when the rumours of the SNP winning everything start to fly.
Whatever it is - there will be some that just can't believe that ED IS PM.
I am confused at the the joy of those labour fans at the final poll results. Labour are only ahead in one of eleven. A year ago who would have predicted that. In fact Ogh was telling us to pile into labour at 5/4 for an overall majority.
Because 11 of 11 would result in EICIPM if the swing in marginals is same as overall CON to LAB swing.
If nothing else this will do the Tories good as it will remove the myths of the 1992 campaign.
Perhaps there is the small matter of counting the votes to deal with first. I have always though it best to not start the autopsy while the patient is still alive!
I am on Lab most seats as much as I care to be. 4.9 on Betfair is still value though. I will do particularly well if Lab majority as I could not resist a bit of 100 on this outcome. If the LDs go below 20 then I will do particularly well. I will also do well on a sub 65% turnout. The seats markets are a bit more patchy. I have stakes on all 6 parties on different seats on a variety of tips and hunches.
But my own personal desires are rather different. I would like to see the LDs being resilient enough to stay over 40. I would be quite happy with a Lab/SNP government, but we have only a little over 24 hours to find out.
As a point of interest if the winning party, irrespective of which, has about 280 seats how will the green benches be filled on the government side in the absence of a formal coalition agreement
Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.
Idiot.
Tories had a good story to tell about their record and the future.
Instead they went negative and sent their press pack out to "Kinnockise" a fundamentally competent, decent man in Ed Miliband.
Epic fail.
Indeed. The monstering of Ed M has been deeply unpleasant. I'll be delighted if it has indeed failed.
Come on guys, lets put this in perspective, the attacks on Miliband have been nothing like the level of Kinnock or Thatcher got. Miliband has certain got negative treatment, but lets not forget the shit Cameron got in 2009/2010, Mirror through his bins, following him around for weeks upon end waiting for him to do something dodgy etc.
I don't agree with any of it, but just saying, we are no were near the level of dancing on Thatcher grave stuff.
It is rubbish. Miliband has not been monstered. He is a politician and if he walks into controversy its his fault.
As for attacks, we saw on national TV the execrable Coogan say that 'Labour gave the country the NHS' when it was created by a committee in wartime headed by a Liberal. He also said the Tories had cut NHS spending (it has not) and would cut it further (Labour in fact are not pledging as much money for the NHS as the Tories) and would privatise the NHS - a calculated and blatant lie made worse when his own party in its 2010 manifesto said NHS spending was now adequate and that it would be OK to put out areas of the NHS out to private operators. Now thats what I call 'monstering'.
I am confused at the the joy of those labour fans at the final poll results. Labour are only ahead in one of eleven.
I think it's the expectation that being about level in the polls means Labour leading in seats. Given what could happen in Scotland I'm not so sure that follows automatically. Should be exciting tomorrow!
No, a long way from automatic, Neil, but on these polls (which have converged dramatically) you'd put Labour's chances of most seats at around 45%.
That implies their Betfair price should be about 2,25, not 4.9.
Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.
Idiot.
Nah, Ed was the weakest link. Six weeks of Ed is Crap, Ed cannot eat bacon buttys and Ed ate my hamster would give us a Tory majority nailed on. Did I tell you he would get slaughtered in the debates as well, that much so, that Dave didn't have to do them all.
Anyway, where is my £500,000 I'm off to Aus.
The little matter of the cost of the Edstone - now that's funny.
Whatever the idiotic EdStone did cost, I suspect it was a fraction of what RW frothers are bandying about.
Go on,have a guess.
I already guessed. It cost whatever the Mail/Sun/Scott P say it cost, which probably bears little relation to reality. To be honest, what it cost is really irrelevant compared to the meaningless words carved on it. And if the Tories had spent more time focusing on the latter rather than the former it might benefit them more. But as usual they went for cheap laughs rather than serious critique.
Win or lose, (and it is very probably LOSE), the Tories need a culling of the poshos.
NO. MORE. ETONIANS.
Ever. The main reason they are likely to lose (despite being modestly competent) is because they are seen as the party of the privileged. So bad is this perception, they are likely to lose to to the Worst Labour Leader since Michael Foot.
The next Tory leader has to be 1, working or lower middle class, and/or 2. a woman/ethnic minority. Better still, three out of four.
And they need to repeat this for a generation. No more Etonians. EVAH.
Win or lose, (and it is very probably LOSE), the Tories need a culling of the poshos.
NO. MORE. ETONIANS.
Ever. The main reason they are likely to lose (despite being modestly competent) is because they are seen as the party of the privileged. So bad is this perception, they are likely to lose to to the Worst Labour Leader since Michael Foot.
The next Tory leader has to be 1, working or lower middle class, and/or 2. a woman/ethnic minority. Better still, three out of four.
And they need to repeat this for a generation. No more Etonians. EVAH.
What about a working class etonian? (there must be some of them, surely??)
So here is the question. When will we reach peak over excitement tomorrow. Will it be when there are very bad swings for Labour in the north east or when the rumours of the SNP winning everything start to fly.
Whatever it is - there will be some that just can't believe that ED IS PM.
Should be clear by about 3am, unless it's terribly close, or the polls are seriously wrong.
Win or lose, (and it is very probably LOSE), the Tories need a culling of the poshos.
NO. MORE. ETONIANS.
Ever. The main reason they are likely to lose (despite being modestly competent) is because they are seen as the party of the privileged. So bad is this perception, they are likely to lose to to the Worst Labour Leader since Michael Foot.
The next Tory leader has to be 1, working or lower middle class, and/or 2. a woman/ethnic minority. Better still, three out of four.
And they need to repeat this for a generation. No more Etonians. EVAH.
So here is the question. When will we reach peak over excitement tomorrow. Will it be when there are very bad swings for Labour in the north east or when the rumours of the SNP winning everything start to fly.
Whatever it is - there will be some that just can't believe that ED IS PM.
Should be clear by about 3am, unless it's terribly close, or the polls are seriously wrong.
As a point of interest if the winning party, irrespective of which, has about 280 seats how will the green benches be filled on the government side in the absence of a formal coalition agreement
Win or lose, (and it is very probably LOSE), the Tories need a culling of the poshos.
NO. MORE. ETONIANS.
Ever. The main reason they are likely to lose (despite being modestly competent) is because they are seen as the party of the privileged. So bad is this perception, they are likely to lose to to the Worst Labour Leader since Michael Foot.
The next Tory leader has to be 1, working or lower middle class, and/or 2. a woman/ethnic minority. Better still, three out of four.
And they need to repeat this for a generation. No more Etonians. EVAH.
What about a working class etonian? (there must be some of them, surely??)
The Tories have lost the campaign, and will probably be the smaller party tomorrow.
On the upside, Labour are nowhere NEAR a majority and will be forced to eat crow by Sturgeon, possibly killing the Labour party long term.
Lose lose lose lose. Everyone loses. LOSE. The Loser Election.
I am not sure why anybody is bullish about this potential result. If the polls are correct, we are in for period where nobody will be able to govern properly with certainty and solidarity. We would be better with a decisive result one way or another.
There are no crises on the horizon for the UK; this isn't dangerous-deficit time any more. An absence of strong government would have the same beneficial impact on the UK that it has had on the USA in the last five years, where the recovery is continuing successfully, while large majorities have been of little use for France, Spain or Italy.
US is a terrible example, it has been logged jammed for years. You seem to be forgetting on things like those moths of uncertainty of having to pass the laws extending debt ceiling etc. Ask any American, from any side of the political spectrum, are you happy with the way things are working out...and it wont be a positive one.
Nothing is getting done and I think Obama time in office will be remembered in history as first black president and......well first black president..
They are wrong. It is a golden age for them and will be recognised to have been so. Despite all international economics and geopolitics working against them, and their doubts being traitors, they are enjoying strong growth, improving employment, they have seen off the bluffer rating agencies which messed up before the Great Recession and had to overcompensate, their soldiers are at home rather than dying overseas, American corporations are thriving abroad, the European effort to displace the exorbitant privilege of American hegemony has failed, they are binding Europe and East Asia ex-China closer to them through trade, and it even looks like their minorities are getting closer to a fairer hearing about their huge grievances against the poisonous legacy of racism. The ordinary person wants strong united government, but when they can't agree on what that strong united government ought to do, better to have healthily balanced government.
I am confused at the the joy of those labour fans at the final poll results. Labour are only ahead in one of eleven. A year ago who would have predicted that. In fact Ogh was telling us to pile into labour at 5/4 for an overall majority.
Because 11 of 11 would result in EICIPM if the swing in marginals is same as overall CON to LAB swing.
If its lower should be close on seats
Is that what you thought you would be celebrating a year ago?
Win or lose, (and it is very probably LOSE), the Tories need a culling of the poshos.
NO. MORE. ETONIANS.
Ever. The main reason they are likely to lose (despite being modestly competent) is because they are seen as the party of the privileged. So bad is this perception, they are likely to lose to to the Worst Labour Leader since Michael Foot.
The next Tory leader has to be 1, working or lower middle class, and/or 2. a woman/ethnic minority. Better still, three out of four.
And they need to repeat this for a generation. No more Etonians. EVAH.
Win or lose, (and it is very probably LOSE), the Tories need a culling of the poshos.
NO. MORE. ETONIANS.
Ever. The main reason they are likely to lose (despite being modestly competent) is because they are seen as the party of the privileged. So bad is this perception, they are likely to lose to to the Worst Labour Leader since Michael Foot.
The next Tory leader has to be 1, working or lower middle class, and/or 2. a woman/ethnic minority. Better still, three out of four.
And they need to repeat this for a generation. No more Etonians. EVAH.
Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.
Idiot.
Nah, Ed was the weakest link. Six weeks of Ed is Crap, Ed cannot eat bacon buttys and Ed ate my hamster would give us a Tory majority nailed on. Did I tell you he would get slaughtered in the debates as well, that much so, that Dave didn't have to do them all.
Anyway, where is my £500,000 I'm off to Aus.
The little matter of the cost of the Edstone - now that's funny.
Whatever the idiotic EdStone did cost, I suspect it was a fraction of what RW frothers are bandying about.
Go on,have a guess.
I already guessed. It cost whatever the Mail/Sun/Scott P say it cost, which probably bears little relation to reality. To be honest, what it cost is really irrelevant compared to the meaningless words carved on it. And if the Tories had spent more time focusing on the latter rather than the former it might benefit them more. But as usual they went for cheap laughs rather than serious critique.
That's what I thought too, Monksfield, though few said it.
It was never a good idea but if you are going to do something like that, do it properly. It was the incongruity between the grandiose presentation and the waffly motherhood statements that really jarred.
SeanT Of post war elections the Tories have won most seats under 1 Harrovian, Churchill and 3 Etonians, Eden, Macmillan and Cameron and 3 state grammar educated leaders, Heath, Thatcher and Major. Their one comprehensive educated leader, Hague, suffered one of the worst defeats in the history of the party. I don't think it makes much difference one way or the other, people vote on policy, the economy and personality, not on the school and university leaders went to. Old Etonian Boris is equally popular with Taxi drivers in Essex and Birmingham as he is with financiers in the City
David Clegg @davieclegg · 7m 7 minutes ago BREAKING: New Scottish Survation poll. SNP - 45.9% LAB - 25.8% CON - 15.0% LD - 7.1% GRE - 2.6% UKIP - 2.4% OTHER - 1.3%
Win or lose, (and it is very probably LOSE), the Tories need a culling of the poshos.
NO. MORE. ETONIANS.
Ever. The main reason they are likely to lose (despite being modestly competent) is because they are seen as the party of the privileged. So bad is this perception, they are likely to lose to to the Worst Labour Leader since Michael Foot.
The next Tory leader has to be 1, working or lower middle class, and/or 2. a woman/ethnic minority. Better still, three out of four.
And they need to repeat this for a generation. No more Etonians. EVAH.
Hits the nail on the head but need to be widened to all public schools.
Back in 2012 you were perhaps the biggest BritNat Englishman.
Have you changed your mind ?
Nope. This is just unionism. Hey Scotland, you don't tell us things, we tell you things. We're bigger, and you should be grateful for all the Tory governments you didn't vote for. Better together.
Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.
Idiot.
Tories had a good story to tell about their record and the future.
Instead they went negative and sent their press pack out to "Kinnockise" a fundamentally competent, decent man in Ed Miliband.
Epic fail.
Indeed. The monstering of Ed M has been deeply unpleasant. I'll be delighted if it has indeed failed.
Come on guys, lets put this in perspective, the attacks on Miliband have been nothing like the level of Kinnock or Thatcher got. Miliband has certain got negative treatment, but lets not forget the shit Cameron got in 2009/2010, Mirror through his bins, following him around for weeks upon end waiting for him to do something dodgy etc.
I don't agree with any of it, but just saying, we are no were near the level of dancing on Thatcher grave stuff.
It is rubbish. Miliband has not been monstered. He is a politician and if he walks into controversy its his fault.
As for attacks, we saw on national TV the execrable Coogan say that 'Labour gave the country the NHS' when it was created by a committee in wartime headed by a Liberal. He also said the Tories had cut NHS spending (it has not) and would cut it further (Labour in fact are not pledging as much money for the NHS as the Tories) and would privatise the NHS - a calculated and blatant lie made worse when his own party in its 2010 manifesto said NHS spending was now adequate and that it would be OK to put out areas of the NHS out to private operators. Now thats what I call 'monstering'.
Both the Save the NHS lie and Ed suggesting he would not need to borrow more when IFS say 90bn are mega lies. They should be called out at every turn but the press seem useless. Sean is right though the Tories need to get rid of the poshos because people don't want to believe them, and I really believed Ed would get found out during campaign but he has just followed Cameron lead from set piece event to set piece event. Cameron can't meet the public because he doesn't get them so Ed is let of the hook.
If the Tories were really bold they would have sajid navid as their next leader.
would Ed want to engineer a second election rather than be seen do deal with SNP and destroy his credibility after making such an effort to assure the public no deals with SNP at all???
Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.
Idiot.
Nah, Ed was the weakest link. Six weeks of Ed is Crap, Ed cannot eat bacon buttys and Ed ate my hamster would give us a Tory majority nailed on. Did I tell you he would get slaughtered in the debates as well, that much so, that Dave didn't have to do them all.
Anyway, where is my £500,000 I'm off to Aus.
The little matter of the cost of the Edstone - now that's funny.
Whatever the idiotic EdStone did cost, I suspect it was a fraction of what RW frothers are bandying about.
Go on,have a guess.
I already guessed. It cost whatever the Mail/Sun/Scott P say it cost, which probably bears little relation to reality. To be honest, what it cost is really irrelevant compared to the meaningless words carved on it. And if the Tories had spent more time focusing on the latter rather than the former it might benefit them more. But as usual they went for cheap laughs rather than serious critique.
Bloody hell I agree,I agree on the pledges carved in stone,all of them were just vague.
The immigration pledge,we will control immigration,what the hell does that really mean ? a few more border guards could be said to control immigration and not the numbers.
So here is the question. When will we reach peak over excitement tomorrow. Will it be when there are very bad swings for Labour in the north east or when the rumours of the SNP winning everything start to fly.
Whatever it is - there will be some that just can't believe that ED IS PM.
I can believe he will be PM. Its always been on the cards. The seat boundaries are the same as 2010 thanks to the dimness of tory backbenchers and Farage seems determined to see a Labour government take us closer into the EU.
I just finished updating my database with the new polls. This is my final picture using the latest and last national polls: CON 33% 268 seats LAB 33% 285 seats UKIP 13% 3 seats LD 9% 19 seats GRN 5% 1 seat SNP 5% 52 seats
Using the latest constituency polls: CON 34% 270 seats LAB 33,5% 270 seats UKIP 13% 3 seats LD 11% 27 seats GRN 4% 1 seat SNP 5% 56 seats
Win or lose, (and it is very probably LOSE), the Tories need a culling of the poshos.
NO. MORE. ETONIANS.
Ever. The main reason they are likely to lose (despite being modestly competent) is because they are seen as the party of the privileged. So bad is this perception, they are likely to lose to to the Worst Labour Leader since Michael Foot.
The next Tory leader has to be 1, working or lower middle class, and/or 2. a woman/ethnic minority. Better still, three out of four.
And they need to repeat this for a generation. No more Etonians. EVAH.
Don't let's too carried away just yet. Here and now the Tories are 1/5 or even shorter to win the most seats. Labour on the other hand are 4/1. The betting markets very evidently believe the Blue team are set to win this election comfortably. We'll find out soon enough.
Win or lose, (and it is very probably LOSE), the Tories need a culling of the poshos.
NO. MORE. ETONIANS.
Ever. The main reason they are likely to lose (despite being modestly competent) is because they are seen as the party of the privileged. So bad is this perception, they are likely to lose to to the Worst Labour Leader since Michael Foot.
The next Tory leader has to be 1, working or lower middle class, and/or 2. a woman/ethnic minority. Better still, three out of four.
And they need to repeat this for a generation. No more Etonians. EVAH.
I agree, the Tories would have done much better if they had elected David Davis in 2005 instead of posh Dave.
Some say that Labour suckered the Tories by promoting Dave in the media on purpose (just like the Tories did later with Jim Murphy) because Dave isn't liked by common people.
This has been a JCR election, fought by people who have never stopped being students. There's been no engagement with voters, no discussion of big issues, just negativity and point scoring, with all emphasis on trying to prove the other side are hypocrites, liars and fools. Just like university. It's pathetic really.
Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.
Idiot.
Tories had a good story to tell about their record and the future.
Instead they went negative and sent their press pack out to "Kinnockise" a fundamentally competent, decent man in Ed Miliband.
Epic fail.
Indeed. The monstering of Ed M has been deeply unpleasant. I'll be delighted if it has indeed failed.
Come on guys, lets put this in perspective, the attacks on Miliband have been nothing like the level of Kinnock or Thatcher got. Miliband has certain got negative treatment, but lets not forget the shit Cameron got in 2009/2010, Mirror through his bins, following him around for weeks upon end waiting for him to do something dodgy etc.
I don't agree with any of it, but just saying, we are no were near the level of dancing on Thatcher grave stuff.
It is rubbish. Miliband has not been monstered. He is a politician and if he walks into controversy its his fault.
As for attacks, we saw on national TV the execrable Coogan say that 'Labour gave the country the NHS' when it was created by a committee in wartime headed by a Liberal. He also said the Tories had cut NHS spending (it has not) and would cut it further (Labour in fact are not pledging as much money for the NHS as the Tories) and would privatise the NHS - a calculated and blatant lie made worse when his own party in its 2010 manifesto said NHS spending was now adequate and that it would be OK to put out areas of the NHS out to private operators. Now thats what I call 'monstering'.
Both the Save the NHS lie and Ed suggesting he would not need to borrow more when IFS say 90bn are mega lies. They should be called out at every turn but the press seem useless. Sean is right though the Tories need to get rid of the poshos because people don't want to believe them, and I really believed Ed would get found out during campaign but he has just followed Cameron lead from set piece event to set piece event. Cameron can't meet the public because he doesn't get them so Ed is let of the hook.
If the Tories were really bold they would have sajid navid as their next leader.
Cameron has been going round meeting the public. Miliband has been having the closed stage managed events.
Don't let's too carried away just yet. Here and now the Tories are 1/5 or even shorter to win the most seats. Labour on the other hand are 4/1. The betting markets very evidently believe the Blue team are set to win this election comfortably. We'll find out soon enough.
This has been a JCR election, fought by people who have never stopped being students. There's been no engagement with voters, no discussion of big issues, just negativity and point scoring, with all emphasis on trying to prove the other side are hypocrites, liars and fools. Just like university. It's pathetic really.
Agree entirely. I know they say we get the politicians we deserve but I really don't know what we have done to deserve such a bunch of third rate self centred nobodies as we have leading all the parties today. I am not talking just about the leaders but those around them as well.
I have a very low opinion of politicians anyway but this lot really scrape the barrel.
Win or lose, (and it is very probably LOSE), the Tories need a culling of the poshos.
NO. MORE. ETONIANS.
Ever. The main reason they are likely to lose (despite being modestly competent) is because they are seen as the party of the privileged. So bad is this perception, they are likely to lose to to the Worst Labour Leader since Michael Foot.
The next Tory leader has to be 1, working or lower middle class, and/or 2. a woman/ethnic minority. Better still, three out of four.
And they need to repeat this for a generation. No more Etonians. EVAH.
NO! It's NOT probably LOSE. It's actually probably WIN.
David Clegg @davieclegg · 7m 7 minutes ago BREAKING: New Scottish Survation poll. SNP - 45.9% LAB - 25.8% CON - 15.0% LD - 7.1% GRE - 2.6% UKIP - 2.4% OTHER - 1.3%
The Scottish polls say a 21% swing from Lab to SNP.
Labour are getting obliterated.
SNP were 46% at Holyrood in 2011 and Yes was 45% last year.
Win or lose, (and it is very probably LOSE), the Tories need a culling of the poshos.
NO. MORE. ETONIANS.
Ever. The main reason they are likely to lose (despite being modestly competent) is because they are seen as the party of the privileged. So bad is this perception, they are likely to lose to to the Worst Labour Leader since Michael Foot.
The next Tory leader has to be 1, working or lower middle class, and/or 2. a woman/ethnic minority. Better still, three out of four.
And they need to repeat this for a generation. No more Etonians. EVAH.
Hits the nail on the head but need to be widened to all public schools.
Which school did Harriet Harman go to? Farage? Blair? Foot? Balls? Benn? (Tristram) Hunt?
You do not seem to realise it is not posh tories you should worry about - its hypocritical posh socialists.
As I have said before - people need to switch off and lift their heads and leave their cosy virtual universe where prejudices and excuses come easy.
This has been a JCR election, fought by people who have never stopped being students. There's been no engagement with voters, no discussion of big issues, just negativity and point scoring, with all emphasis on trying to prove the other side are hypocrites, liars and fools. Just like university. It's pathetic really.
I think that is being hard on JCR elections...at least those candidates normally meet real people.
Speedy Davis may well have led a minority government in 2010, but Brown could equally have done a deal with the LDs, there certainly would have been no Davis-Clegg coalition. Davis would have lost fewer votes to UKIP, however some nore ormer Blair voters may have gone to Clegg rather than Cameron
The Tories have lost the campaign, and will probably be the smaller party tomorrow.
On the upside, Labour are nowhere NEAR a majority and will be forced to eat crow by Sturgeon, possibly killing the Labour party long term.
Lose lose lose lose. Everyone loses. LOSE. The Loser Election.
I hope we've seen the last of international geniuses like Lynton Crosby and David Axlerod.
I hope so too, they are terrible campaigners.
But forecasters are equally terrible, I remember in 2010 that all polling experts and polling publishers predicted a Tory Majority on election day, even if all the polls disagreed. They are repeating the same mistake today too, Kellner and Fisher are still predicting a coalition majority, I prefer the Polling Observatory as the one closest to the reality of opinion polls.
If nothing else this will do the Tories good as it will remove the myths of the 1992 campaign.
Perhaps there is the small matter of counting the votes to deal with first. I have always though it best to not start the autopsy while the patient is still alive!
I'm surprised about how much premature celebrating Labour supporters are indulging in.
There's still a great deal of uncertainty as to the votes and a great deal of uncertainty as to what happens after.
Speedy Davis may well have led a minority government in 2010, but Brown could equally have done a deal with the LDs, there certainly would have been no Davis-Clegg coalition. Davis would have lost fewer votes to UKIP, however some nore ormer Blair voters may have gone to Clegg rather than Cameron
I don't think that Brown would have had enough seats for a coalition with Clegg under any circumstances in 2010. As for the Blairites, they stayed with Labour in 2010 due to Mandelson and David Miliband and they would never have gone to the anti-war left LD of the time.
And I have to say that for the Tories to lose the services of Dan Hodges and his Blairite entourage is an electoral plus.
I'm a simple chap, so I wonder why Lab Most Seats is available at 5.0 when the Con/Lab contests which Labour are very unlikely to win if they don't get most seats are available at 1.4 to 1.67 (or even more) or the Tories - we are talking about seats 50 or 60 down the list of Con-held Labour targets.
If nothing else this will do the Tories good as it will remove the myths of the 1992 campaign.
Perhaps there is the small matter of counting the votes to deal with first. I have always though it best to not start the autopsy while the patient is still alive!
I'm surprised about how much premature celebrating Labour supporters are indulging in.
There's still a great deal of uncertainty as to the votes and a great deal of uncertainty as to what happens after.
What makes it all the more surprising is the fact that the betting markets are suggesting a clear Tory win, albeit not a majority. The celebrations to which you refer are all the more curious on this, a supposed political BETTING site, where you'd imagine folk would be better informed and streewise as regards the state of play.
Don't let's too carried away just yet. Here and now the Tories are 1/5 or even shorter to win the most seats. Labour on the other hand are 4/1. The betting markets very evidently believe the Blue team are set to win this election comfortably. We'll find out soon enough.
If nothing else this will do the Tories good as it will remove the myths of the 1992 campaign.
Perhaps there is the small matter of counting the votes to deal with first. I have always though it best to not start the autopsy while the patient is still alive!
I'm surprised about how much premature celebrating Labour supporters are indulging in.
There's still a great deal of uncertainty as to the votes and a great deal of uncertainty as to what happens after.
What's more, there's one certainty which makes Labour hubris look even stranger: Ed in a minority government propped up by the SNP would be cruel and unusual punishment.
The position of the posh boys around the monarch, or "Buckingham Palace" in the parlance, is that she ain't going to be making an opening speech unless someone tells her he's confident he can "form a government". Which would rule out a "Dare you LABbers to vote against a CON queen's speech" play by Cameron. Not that that was likely anyway, but still.
The problem is that both ways of forcing a second election (two-third of the Commons voting in favour, or the government losing a vote of confidence in the Commons and no government winning one within a fortnight) are premised upon Parliament actually having been opened and the Commons actually sitting.
So given that neither of these can happen when there's a caretaker government and no opening of Parliament, we get...Belgium?
Some strange and unexpected ideas are likely to appear if that's how it goes.
Speedy The Tories rose from 33% in 2005 to 37% in 2010, Labour fell from 35% to 29%, the LDs were on 23% close to what they got in 2005, there was a clear shift of some Labour voters from 2005 to 2010 from Labour to the Tories, Clegg was also more moderate and centrist than Kennedy was. A Davis minority government would have been most likely, but I think Clegg would have done even better and could well have done a deal with Labour under a new leader
If nothing else this will do the Tories good as it will remove the myths of the 1992 campaign.
Perhaps there is the small matter of counting the votes to deal with first. I have always though it best to not start the autopsy while the patient is still alive!
I'm surprised about how much premature celebrating Labour supporters are indulging in.
There's still a great deal of uncertainty as to the votes and a great deal of uncertainty as to what happens after.
What's more, there's one certainty: Ed in a minority government propped up by the SNP would be cruel and unusual punishment.
I'm a simple chap, so I wonder why Lab Most Seats is available at 5.0 when the Con/Lab contests which Labour are very unlikely to win if they don't get most seats are available at 1.4 to 1.67 (or even more) or the Tories - we are talking about seats 50 or 60 down the list of Con-held Labour targets.
As observed in the 538 article, there is an unstoppable wave of money for Con Most Seats on the one hand, and on the other hand constituency markets don't have much liquidity and eagle-eyed bookies limit or close accounts with funny constituency betting patterns.
Win or lose, (and it is very probably LOSE), the Tories need a culling of the poshos.
NO. MORE. ETONIANS.
Ever. The main reason they are likely to lose (despite being modestly competent) is because they are seen as the party of the privileged. So bad is this perception, they are likely to lose to to the Worst Labour Leader since Michael Foot.
The next Tory leader has to be 1, working or lower middle class, and/or 2. a woman/ethnic minority. Better still, three out of four.
And they need to repeat this for a generation. No more Etonians. EVAH.
NO! It's NOT probably LOSE. It's actually probably WIN.
Well it's 50/50 for the popular vote, as for seats well Labour seem to have the upper hand a bit. But Cameron is very far away from the seats needed to remain in place with Clegg, about 25 away, with 22 hours to go.
It will certainly have its darkly humorous side. I'm particularly looking forward to the wall of silence from Labour MPs about food banks if, God forbid, Ed does become PM.
Don't let's too carried away just yet. Here and now the Tories are 1/5 or even shorter to win the most seats. Labour on the other hand are 4/1. The betting markets very evidently believe the Blue team are set to win this election comfortably. We'll find out soon enough.
Depends what you mean by win. They are very unlikely to win a majority. Most seats, probably. But enough to form a stable government? We'll see. The only real winners tomorrow look like being the SNP.
Didn't the betting markets have the Tories storming home in 2010 too?
This has been a JCR election, fought by people who have never stopped being students. There's been no engagement with voters, no discussion of big issues, just negativity and point scoring, with all emphasis on trying to prove the other side are hypocrites, liars and fools. Just like university. It's pathetic really.
It will certainly have its darkly humorous side. I'm particularly looking forward to the wall of silence from Labour MPs about food banks if, God forbid, Ed does become PM.
No,the waiting times on the NHS will be a good one ;-)
The Tories have lost the campaign, and will probably be the smaller party tomorrow.
On the upside, Labour are nowhere NEAR a majority and will be forced to eat crow by Sturgeon, possibly killing the Labour party long term.
Lose lose lose lose. Everyone loses. LOSE. The Loser Election.
Normally would bow to your wisdom, but wouldn't be so sure, as long as Labour are the largest party. If they are, then Clegg or no, the Lib Dems basically have to support some form of Labour government - the Tory numbers wouldn't work, and any 'legitimacy questions' work against Cameron. They both agree a Lab-Lib deal which is basically steady as she goes on the economy, with the most totemic cuts scrapped (bedroom tax etc) using the flexibility given by not needing to reach a surplus so soon, but continuing the squeeze on departmental spending in the short term while it can be blamed on inherited plans. The centrepiece though would be electoral and constitutional reform - Clegg gets another chance to change FPTP, the house of Lords is replaced and, the clever bit would be to offer the Nats far more powers, but in a way which also devolves power away from Westminster to the English to make a more federal UK, selling it as giving more powers to everyone not just the Scots. You tie this into the same program as part of sorting out our constitutional mess. The Nats are offered it on a take-it-or leave it basis and would have to vote for it, or at least abstain - as they're being offered what they supposedly want and the alternative is a) a Tory government, or b) no government at all. The Tories would be left arguing for a system which apparently created their nightmare outcome, and Ed's a 'reforming PM' on the cheap, getting a few manifesto pledges through before going to the country having fallen out with the SNP providing the economy hasn't hit another iceberg. Optimistic, yes - but doable with a fair wind, as long as you're the largest party.
The real problems for Labour occur if it's just behind the Tories but can block them forming a government - then the Lib Dems become more reticent about any deal, and the SNP put Labour into the impossible position of choosing between this 'lock the Tories out of power' stuff and the realisation that doing so upon a shaky SNP mandate would be suicide in England, and that the SNP would be free to pull the rug out and blame Labour for being too Tory.
If Lab get most seats, it's possible to see a strategic way out of things, if not things get deeply problematic.
Speedy The Tories rose from 33% in 2005 to 37% in 2010, Labour fell from 35% to 29%, the LDs were on 23% close to what they got in 2005, there was a clear shift of some Labour voters from 2005 to 2010 from Labour to the Tories, Clegg was also more moderate and centrist than Kennedy was. A Davis minority government would have been most likely, but I think Clegg would have done even better and could well have done a deal with Labour under a new leader
Unlikely, people wanted change in 2010 not another Blair clone, that was one issue that hampered Cameron back then and now too. If Davis had gone for a Tory minority government he would have been in a much better position to do what many here advised Cameron in 2010 too, he would have gone for a second election in the autumn and won a majority.
Just think, if Davis was leader: no coalition, no UKIP, no LD suicide.
As I probably won't be on much during the day tomorrow, can I wish all PBers standing for election tomorrow, Westminster/council etc, the best of luck, and may the best Tory win
If nothing else this will do the Tories good as it will remove the myths of the 1992 campaign.
Perhaps there is the small matter of counting the votes to deal with first. I have always though it best to not start the autopsy while the patient is still alive!
I'm surprised about how much premature celebrating Labour supporters are indulging in.
There's still a great deal of uncertainty as to the votes and a great deal of uncertainty as to what happens after.
What makes it all the more surprising is the fact that the betting markets are suggesting a clear Tory win, albeit not a majority. The celebrations to which you refer are all the more curious on this, a supposed political BETTING site, where you'd imagine folk would be better informed and streewise as regards the state of play.
The betting markets aren't suggesting anything of the sort; they are projecting a 55% probability of Labour led government.
Comments
I guess when the first one Nuneaton declares at 1am we will be closer to knowing if CON can hold on to most seats.
I think they have to be 20 seats ahead to stop Ed being PM
Also, pretty amazing that the Telegraph has gone for the headline "Don't do something you'll regret". Is that really their inspiring summation of the case for Cameron?
Back in 2012 you were perhaps the biggest BritNat Englishman.
Have you changed your mind ?
Nothing is getting done and I think Obama time in office will be remembered in history as first black president and......well first black president..
Lol
Whatever it is - there will be some that just can't believe that ED IS PM.
If its lower should be close on seats
I am on Lab most seats as much as I care to be. 4.9 on Betfair is still value though. I will do particularly well if Lab majority as I could not resist a bit of 100 on this outcome. If the LDs go below 20 then I will do particularly well. I will also do well on a sub 65% turnout. The seats markets are a bit more patchy. I have stakes on all 6 parties on different seats on a variety of tips and hunches.
But my own personal desires are rather different. I would like to see the LDs being resilient enough to stay over 40. I would be quite happy with a Lab/SNP government, but we have only a little over 24 hours to find out.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/think-you-know-who-will-the-uk-election-want-to-bet/#fn-1
Con 281
Lab 266
SNP 51
LD 27
Hanretty: LD to poll higher than UKIP
Only two-thirds sure Cons will be biggest party
As for attacks, we saw on national TV the execrable Coogan say that 'Labour gave the country the NHS' when it was created by a committee in wartime headed by a Liberal.
He also said the Tories had cut NHS spending (it has not) and would cut it further (Labour in fact are not pledging as much money for the NHS as the Tories) and would privatise the NHS - a calculated and blatant lie made worse when his own party in its 2010 manifesto said NHS spending was now adequate and that it would be OK to put out areas of the NHS out to private operators.
Now thats what I call 'monstering'.
That implies their Betfair price should be about 2,25, not 4.9.
OR
May 7th = VE Day: Victory over Ed Day?
It was never a good idea but if you are going to do something like that, do it properly. It was the incongruity between the grandiose presentation and the waffly motherhood statements that really jarred.
But nobody really made that point.
BREAKING: New Scottish Survation poll.
SNP - 45.9%
LAB - 25.8%
CON - 15.0%
LD - 7.1%
GRE - 2.6%
UKIP - 2.4%
OTHER - 1.3%
Great clip.
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2015_by_time.php
If the Tories were really bold they would have sajid navid as their next leader.
The immigration pledge,we will control immigration,what the hell does that really mean ? a few more border guards could be said to control immigration and not the numbers.
This is my final picture using the latest and last national polls:
CON 33% 268 seats
LAB 33% 285 seats
UKIP 13% 3 seats
LD 9% 19 seats
GRN 5% 1 seat
SNP 5% 52 seats
Using the latest constituency polls:
CON 34% 270 seats
LAB 33,5% 270 seats
UKIP 13% 3 seats
LD 11% 27 seats
GRN 4% 1 seat
SNP 5% 56 seats
In addition PC has 3 seats and Respect 1 seat.
I'm a old lefty at heart ;-)
Here and now the Tories are 1/5 or even shorter to win the most seats. Labour on the other hand are 4/1.
The betting markets very evidently believe the Blue team are set to win this election comfortably.
We'll find out soon enough.
Some say that Labour suckered the Tories by promoting Dave in the media on purpose (just like the Tories did later with Jim Murphy) because Dave isn't liked by common people.
-Does this make him a Downing Street spokesman - at least until tomorrow?
I have a very low opinion of politicians anyway but this lot really scrape the barrel.
Labour are getting obliterated.
SNP were 46% at Holyrood in 2011 and Yes was 45% last year.
In fact the actual story was mostly about the similar but much less publicised Sheffield abuse:
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/exclusive-south-yorkshire-police-warned-of-sheffield-s-very-entrenched-sexual-exploitation-problem-in-2006-but-failed-to-act-1-7243223
What ties the two things together is the malign influence of the SYP.
It is significant that the Sheffield Star had to use the FoI law to get the information.
Makes you wonder what other information the SYP is keeping hidden.
Which is why we need an independent outside investigation into the SYP.
Instead the establishment prefers to pretend 'things are different now' and 'lessons have been learnt'.
You do not seem to realise it is not posh tories you should worry about - its hypocritical posh socialists.
As I have said before - people need to switch off and lift their heads and leave their cosy virtual universe where prejudices and excuses come easy.
People don't seem to realise this could happen the length and breadth of the land. Safe Tory seats could be lost as well as marginals.
But forecasters are equally terrible, I remember in 2010 that all polling experts and polling publishers predicted a Tory Majority on election day, even if all the polls disagreed.
They are repeating the same mistake today too, Kellner and Fisher are still predicting a coalition majority, I prefer the Polling Observatory as the one closest to the reality of opinion polls.
First tweet says 33/33
Then ballot paper is 31.4/31.4
What do the 33/33 numbers relate to?
There's still a great deal of uncertainty as to the votes and a great deal of uncertainty as to what happens after.
As for the Blairites, they stayed with Labour in 2010 due to Mandelson and David Miliband and they would never have gone to the anti-war left LD of the time.
And I have to say that for the Tories to lose the services of Dan Hodges and his Blairite entourage is an electoral plus.
So instead of 34-34, 38-29.5. Keep unspinning the polls.
https://xkcd.com/1122/
'This has been a JCR election, fought by people who have never stopped being students.'
Like any other job there should be some basic qualification required to be an MP,10 years working in the real world should be a minimum requirement.
The problem is that both ways of forcing a second election (two-third of the Commons voting in favour, or the government losing a vote of confidence in the Commons and no government winning one within a fortnight) are premised upon Parliament actually having been opened and the Commons actually sitting.
So given that neither of these can happen when there's a caretaker government and no opening of Parliament, we get...Belgium?
Some strange and unexpected ideas are likely to appear if that's how it goes.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
"Error establishing a database connection"
Anthony, any chance you could turn it off & back on again?
Ta.
But Cameron is very far away from the seats needed to remain in place with Clegg, about 25 away, with 22 hours to go.
So lets be realistic.
Didn't the betting markets have the Tories storming home in 2010 too?
*Innocent Face*
The real problems for Labour occur if it's just behind the Tories but can block them forming a government - then the Lib Dems become more reticent about any deal, and the SNP put Labour into the impossible position of choosing between this 'lock the Tories out of power' stuff and the realisation that doing so upon a shaky SNP mandate would be suicide in England, and that the SNP would be free to pull the rug out and blame Labour for being too Tory.
If Lab get most seats, it's possible to see a strategic way out of things, if not things get deeply problematic.
If Davis had gone for a Tory minority government he would have been in a much better position to do what many here advised Cameron in 2010 too, he would have gone for a second election in the autumn and won a majority.
Just think, if Davis was leader: no coalition, no UKIP, no LD suicide.