Seems to me that the PastVoteWeighting is boosting the UKIP total in the polls more than is justified. Just because someone voted UKIP in the Euro's doesn;t mean that translates to the GE.
Fact to remember: In most recent Ashcroft in #GreatYarmouth, for example, the raw data [over 1000 respondents] saw Tory Brandon Lewis was 7pts ahead of Labour. After adjusting for Past Vote Weighting from the Kippers, Lewis was deducted 5pts leaving him just 2 ahead of Labour. But Labour wasn't deducted any points at all.
That's bonkers!
Last year in the Council elections, where they elect in thirds, 13 seats were up for grabs. UKIP scooped 10 of them on the back of the EU elections. But the 10 were taken equally from Cons [5] and Labour [5]. So why did the Tories get penalised and not Labour in this Bellwether seat?
Undoubtedly people have voted UKIP in the [recent] past in relatively inconsequential elections but there's no way the extent of that support is mirrored in the General Election polling. My observable doorstep experience is that UKIP support is evaporating in this seaside borough. Helped by a 48% reduction in local unemployment.
But the Past Vote Weighting wrt UKIP seems to have several problems 1 It treats a previous UKIP vote in the council or Euro elections equally with the General Election - a heroic assumption 2 The experience in the marginal seat polling is that the past-vote-weighting is deducted exclusively from the Tory with none from Labour. Just not credible
So my instinct from all this is that UKIP has been methodologically overstated based on recent voting in council areas where they elect in thirds. And that over-statement has been disproportionately in favour Labour, not the Tories for reasons I can't understand.
That's what'll come out of the wash-up when the pollsters work out what went wrong.
BTW, had a nice chat with fmr senior exec of IpsosMori up here in bandit country last week. Lots of stories. NSFW.
Stephen Tall @stephentall 11s11 seconds ago Amid inevitable LibDem losses, don't forget to look out for 4 possible gains: Montgomeryshire, Maidstone, Watford, Oxford West & Abingdon.
I would like to give a huge thank you to Lynton Crosby for running the worse Tory Election Campaign in my lifetime, add this to the amount of money he has robbed from Tory coffers and he must be up for some kind of award.
Well win or lose, despite valiant efforts from the ground troops, the CCHQ campaign has been surprisingly dire. Shockingly so.
Expected something devastating, but it simply never happened.
Agree, they've been dire and Cameron is such a PR fake. With a leavening of entitlement and arrogance.
But basically, they just haven't spread the spoils of recovery around enough. If they'd thrown a few more crumbs to ordinary folk they could have cruised to a majority.
I would like to give a huge thank you to Lynton Crosby for running the worse Tory Election Campaign in my lifetime, add this to the amount of money he has robbed from Tory coffers and he must be up for some kind of award.
I would like to give a huge thank you to Lynton Crosby for running the worse Tory Election Campaign in my lifetime, add this to the amount of money he has robbed from Tory coffers and he must be up for some kind of award.
Lynton I salute you!
I think all the parties should be asking for their money back from their campaign directors.
I would like to give a huge thank you to Lynton Crosby for running the worse Tory Election Campaign in my lifetime, add this to the amount of money he has robbed from Tory coffers and he must be up for some kind of award.
Maidstone doesn't seem inconceivable as a Lib Dem gain. There's a sizeable Labour vote to squeeze and as I think I've said before I expect some anti-Tory tactical voting rewind.
Seems to me that the PastVoteWeighting is boosting the UKIP total in the polls more than is justified. Just because someone voted UKIP in the Euro's doesn;t mean that translates to the GE.
Fact to remember: In most recent Ashcroft in #GreatYarmouth, for example, the raw data [over 1000 respondents] saw Tory Brandon Lewis was 7pts ahead of Labour. After adjusting for Past Vote Weighting from the Kippers, Lewis was deducted 5pts leaving him just 2 ahead of Labour. But Labour wasn't deducted any points at all.
That's bonkers!
Last year in the Council elections, where they elect in thirds, 13 seats were up for grabs. UKIP scooped 10 of them on the back of the EU elections. But the 10 were taken equally from Cons [5] and Labour [5]. So why did the Tories get penalised and not Labour in this Bellwether seat?
Undoubtedly people have voted UKIP in the [recent] past in relatively inconsequential elections but there's no way the extent of that support is mirrored in the General Election polling. My observable doorstep experience is that UKIP support is evaporating in this seaside borough. Helped by a 48% reduction in local unemployment.
But the Past Vote Weighting wrt UKIP seems to have several problems 1 It treats a previous UKIP vote in the council or Euro elections equally with the General Election - a heroic assumption 2 The experience in the marginal seat polling is that the past-vote-weighting is deducted exclusively from the Tory with none from Labour. Just not credible
So my instinct from all this is that UKIP has been methodologically overstated based on recent voting in council areas where they elect in thirds. And that over-statement has been disproportionately in favour Labour, not the Tories for reasons I can't understand.
That's what'll come out of the wash-up when the pollsters work out what went wrong.
BTW, had a nice chat with fmr senior exec of IpsosMori up here in bandit country last week. Lots of stories. NSFW.
Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.
Idiot.
Nah, Ed was the weakest link. Six weeks of Ed is Crap, Ed cannot eat bacon buttys and Ed ate my hamster would give us a Tory majority nailed on. Did I tell you he would get slaughtered in the debates as well, that much so, that Dave didn't have to do them all.
Media Standards Trust say Daily Mirror is the most partisan paper.
I would have said that was one of the most blindingly obvious facts about newspapers. I can't imagine that they spent more than 30 seconds thinking about the issue.
Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.
Idiot.
Nah, Ed was the weakest link. Six weeks of Ed is Crap, Ed cannot eat bacon buttys and Ed ate my hamster would give us a Tory majority nailed on. Did I tell you he would get slaughtered in the debates as well, that much so, that Dave didn't have to do them all.
Anyway, where is my £500,000 I'm off to Aus.
The little matter of the cost of the Edstone - now that's funny.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the eve of poll SUPER ARSE with added SUPER APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 5th May Projection) :
Con 302 (-2) .. Lab 251 (+2) .. LibDem 28 (NC) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 24 seats short of a majority
Turnout Projection .. 68% (+0.5)
Surely this should be the leader all these other "so called polls" are worthless.
Newsnight seems to be a party election broadcast for the Labour Party. Cockerill doing a Miliband profile.
No surely not...I guess that happens when you have a staff that is 90% former Guardian employees spending 90% of the time interviewing current Guardian employees. And they wonder why their numbers are through the floor, kinda of like the Guardian circulation.
I have been surprised the Tories haven't hammered Labour on NHS Wales vs NHS England.
For 50 years Labour lie about Tory intentions towards the NHS at elections. The Wales vs England comparison would have killed Labours favourite narrative stone dead.
Based on OGH's final chart Tories lead in 3 of final polls, Labour in 1 and 4 are tied. Interestingly the one with the Labour lead has an unusually high UKIP total on 16% which has lowered the Tory total
I don't think you can deny that Labour are better at politics.
It is a pity they are crap at government historically.
The one concern with the polls all coalescing at a tie or there abouts is that while it is very pretty, when something looks too good to be true it usually is too good to be true. could they be in for a roasting?
The Tories have lost the campaign, and will probably be the smaller party tomorrow.
On the upside, Labour are nowhere NEAR a majority and will be forced to eat crow by Sturgeon, possibly killing the Labour party long term.
Lose lose lose lose. Everyone loses. LOSE. The Loser Election.
I am not sure why anybody is bullish about this potential result. If the polls are correct, we are in for period where nobody will be able to govern properly with certainty and solidarity. We would be better with a decisive result one way or another.
Helen Grant, it is said, you'd rather go for a meal with Hannibal Lecter than Helen Grant.
I'm very shocked about Maidstone, if true. That's very unlucky.
What makes her such poor company?
I know she's a CCHQ pushed A-lister. They're doing the same this time too, in safe seats, just under the radar.
The nickname for my local Tory candidate (in ultra-safe Hampshire NE) is Mr. Party Line.
BBC South East reported on the close fight in Maidstone a week or two ago (and I posted on here about that report), so it's not so much a surprise for people down here. However, I thought then as I do (slightly less confidently) now, it will be a Tory hold. Nothing to go on but gut.
I have been surprised the Tories haven't hammered Labour on NHS Wales vs NHS England.
For 50 years Labour lie about Tory intentions towards the NHS at elections. The Wales vs England comparison would have killed Labours favourite narrative stone dead.
Er, you imposed an unwanted reorganisation on it costing £4bn, dying in a ditch in a battle with the Lords to preserve certain clauses that could only be interpreted as opening the service up to colossal privatisation.
Then dropping them just to get the dogs breakfast through as you couldn't be seen to fail at that.
Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.
Idiot.
Tories had a good story to tell about their record and the future.
Instead they went negative and sent their press pack out to "Kinnockise" a fundamentally competent, decent man in Ed Miliband.
Epic fail.
Indeed. The monstering of Ed M has been deeply unpleasant. I'll be delighted if it has indeed failed.
Come on guys, lets put this in perspective, the attacks on Miliband have been nothing like the level of Kinnock or Thatcher got. Miliband has certain got negative treatment, but lets not forget the shit Cameron got in 2009/2010, Mirror through his bins, following him around for weeks upon end waiting for him to do something dodgy etc.
I don't agree with any of it, but just saying, we are no were near the level of dancing on Thatcher grave stuff.
I am confused at the the joy of those labour fans at the final poll results. Labour are only ahead in one of eleven. A year ago who would have predicted that. In fact Ogh was telling us to pile into labour at 5/4 for an overall majority.
Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.
Idiot.
Nah, Ed was the weakest link. Six weeks of Ed is Crap, Ed cannot eat bacon buttys and Ed ate my hamster would give us a Tory majority nailed on. Did I tell you he would get slaughtered in the debates as well, that much so, that Dave didn't have to do them all.
Anyway, where is my £500,000 I'm off to Aus.
The little matter of the cost of the Edstone - now that's funny.
Whatever the idiotic EdStone did cost, I suspect it was a fraction of what RW frothers are bandying about.
The Tories have lost the campaign, and will probably be the smaller party tomorrow.
On the upside, Labour are nowhere NEAR a majority and will be forced to eat crow by Sturgeon, possibly killing the Labour party long term.
Lose lose lose lose. Everyone loses. LOSE. The Loser Election.
I am not sure why anybody is bullish about this potential result. If the polls are correct, we are in for period where nobody will be able to govern properly with certainty and solidarity. We would be better with a decisive result one way or another.
Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.
Idiot.
Nah, Ed was the weakest link. Six weeks of Ed is Crap, Ed cannot eat bacon buttys and Ed ate my hamster would give us a Tory majority nailed on. Did I tell you he would get slaughtered in the debates as well, that much so, that Dave didn't have to do them all.
Anyway, where is my £500,000 I'm off to Aus.
The little matter of the cost of the Edstone - now that's funny.
Whatever the idiotic EdStone did cost, I suspect it was a fraction of what RW frothers are bandying about.
I am confused at the the joy of those labour fans at the final poll results. Labour are only ahead in one of eleven.
I think it's the expectation that being about level in the polls means Labour leading in seats. Given what could happen in Scotland I'm not so sure that follows automatically. Should be exciting tomorrow!
Seems some on here have decided the GE is now won by labour so really no need for anyone to vote tomorrow then. Just elect the Government by opinion polls and save a lot of money
The Tories have lost the campaign, and will probably be the smaller party tomorrow.
On the upside, Labour are nowhere NEAR a majority and will be forced to eat crow by Sturgeon, possibly killing the Labour party long term.
Lose lose lose lose. Everyone loses. LOSE. The Loser Election.
I am not sure why anybody is bullish about this potential result. If the polls are correct, we are in for period where nobody will be able to govern properly with certainty and solidarity. We would be better with a decisive result one way or another.
There are no crises on the horizon for the UK; this isn't dangerous-deficit time any more. An absence of strong government would have the same beneficial impact on the UK that it has had on the USA in the last five years, where the recovery is continuing successfully, while large majorities have been of little use for France, Spain or Italy.
The Tories have lost the campaign, and will probably be the smaller party tomorrow.
On the upside, Labour are nowhere NEAR a majority and will be forced to eat crow by Sturgeon, possibly killing the Labour party long term.
Lose lose lose lose. Everyone loses. LOSE. The Loser Election.
I am not sure why anybody is bullish about this potential result. If the polls are correct, we are in for period where nobody will be able to govern properly with certainty and solidarity. We would be better with a decisive result one way or another.
the big question is how will the markets respond and what will happen to our debt interest payments???
Comments
Seems to me that the PastVoteWeighting is boosting the UKIP total in the polls more than is justified. Just because someone voted UKIP in the Euro's doesn;t mean that translates to the GE.
Fact to remember: In most recent Ashcroft in #GreatYarmouth, for example, the raw data [over 1000 respondents] saw Tory Brandon Lewis was 7pts ahead of Labour. After adjusting for Past Vote Weighting from the Kippers, Lewis was deducted 5pts leaving him just 2 ahead of Labour. But Labour wasn't deducted any points at all.
That's bonkers!
Last year in the Council elections, where they elect in thirds, 13 seats were up for grabs. UKIP scooped 10 of them on the back of the EU elections. But the 10 were taken equally from Cons [5] and Labour [5]. So why did the Tories get penalised and not Labour in this Bellwether seat?
Undoubtedly people have voted UKIP in the [recent] past in relatively inconsequential elections but there's no way the extent of that support is mirrored in the General Election polling. My observable doorstep experience is that UKIP support is evaporating in this seaside borough. Helped by a 48% reduction in local unemployment.
But the Past Vote Weighting wrt UKIP seems to have several problems
1 It treats a previous UKIP vote in the council or Euro elections equally with the General Election - a heroic assumption
2 The experience in the marginal seat polling is that the past-vote-weighting is deducted exclusively from the Tory with none from Labour. Just not credible
So my instinct from all this is that UKIP has been methodologically overstated based on recent voting in council areas where they elect in thirds. And that over-statement has been disproportionately in favour Labour, not the Tories for reasons I can't understand.
That's what'll come out of the wash-up when the pollsters work out what went wrong.
BTW, had a nice chat with fmr senior exec of IpsosMori up here in bandit country last week. Lots of stories. NSFW.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Amid inevitable LibDem losses, don't forget to look out for 4 possible gains: Montgomeryshire, Maidstone, Watford, Oxford West & Abingdon.
Expected something devastating, but it simply never happened.
Lynton I salute you!
Their candidate was such an annoying t*t when he was a columnist.
But basically, they just haven't spread the spoils of recovery around enough. If they'd thrown a few more crumbs to ordinary folk they could have cruised to a majority.
Should have been talking about the economy. Instead went for Ed as a person.
Idiot.
UKIP influence, directly or indirectly.
Dave 2.02
Edm 2.00
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=116758783&ex=1&origin=MRL
peter_from_putney said:
Many thanks for that and good luck ..... you deserve it!
Will you be at the count and declaration btw?
Yes, Peter. But the votes don't start counting until 2.00 am though, so says my notification letter! Yawn.....and that is without recounts!
Instead they went negative and sent their press pack out to "Kinnockise" a fundamentally competent, decent man in Ed Miliband.
Epic fail.
I think Labour may have a very, very outside chance of a gain in Gravesham.
Tom Newton Dunn ✔ @tnewtondunn
Media Standards Trust say Daily Mirror is the most partisan paper. Oddly, @campbellclaret isn't moaning about that; http://www.sunnation.co.uk/the-labour-sup
Best thing you tweeted for a while.
Damn right - Hodges clones like Kelner were predicting 6 point Tory leads!
Anyway, where is my £500,000 I'm off to Aus.
Exactly - you think they would have learned their lesson from how they treated Brown.
Instead of simply arguing he wasn't up to it - they attacked for writing discrete letters to family soldiers. Cretins
Breaking double figures tomorrow will be an achievement.
And that is just seats :-)
He has earned over £1.5 Million! from the Tories.
10:28PM
I reckon Dave next PM on Betfair lasts less than next 60mins.
LAB most seats at 4.9 will tighten too
bigjohnowls Posts: 4,485
10:30PM
Should have said 6 mins its CROSSOVER already
BJO main forecast is EICIPM will that be right too!!!
Con 302 (-2) .. Lab 251 (+2) .. LibDem 28 (NC) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 24 seats short of a majority
Turnout Projection .. 68% (+0.5)
Surely this should be the leader all these other "so called polls" are worthless.
Share
Lab 34 (+2) Con 34 (-1) LibD 9 (-2) UKIP 13 (+1)
Seats
Lab 289 (+23) Con 272 (-15) SNP 48 (-) LibD 20 (-7) UKIP 1 (-) Grn 1 (-) PC 1 (-1)
Going bullish on Lab after zero swingback.
As a Tory majority gets revealed, the pollsters shrug and say "25% of them did change their minds. We got that right! Yay for us..."
For 50 years Labour lie about Tory intentions towards the NHS at elections. The Wales vs England comparison would have killed Labours favourite narrative stone dead.
What makes her such poor company?
I know she's a CCHQ pushed A-lister. They're doing the same this time too, in safe seats, just under the radar.
The nickname for my local Tory candidate (in ultra-safe Hampshire NE) is Mr. Party Line.
Why of why of why didn't they just run a boring campaign on the economy.
It is a pity they are crap at government historically.
The one concern with the polls all coalescing at a tie or there abouts is that while it is very pretty, when something looks too good to be true it usually is too good to be true. could they be in for a roasting?
5.5.15 LAB 287 (288) CON 272(272) (Ed is crap is PM)
https://www.twitter.com/HaggisEye/status/596066298628546560
very good
I've read predictions of 13,000.
Now assuming that these were anti-Conservative votes and spread over say 100 constituencies that would be 130 votes for each one.
Which would be enough to cost the Conservatives about 3 to 5 MPs.
Then dropping them just to get the dogs breakfast through as you couldn't be seen to fail at that.
It was a massive political folly.
When you paying me that meal you owe me. Ed is still leader. And its voting time.
You lost!
I don't agree with any of it, but just saying, we are no were near the level of dancing on Thatcher grave stuff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ogt6njXU9Cg