And it looks like the SNP is about to roll over the opposition.
I have been on this site for about four months. In that time I have noted dozens of outbreaks of wishfull thinking from contributers determined to show that the SNP surge was a temporary spasm, the result of bad pollling by people with Scottish accents, about to be reversed by Salmond's over confidence, the Scots just being silly, Sturgeon's temporary honeymoon etc etc etc.
Will the results have to come in befoire there is a general acceptance of the inevitable, that the SNP move forward is totally logical, that their campaign deserves to ouclass the rest for its organisation and the leadership style of Nicola Sturgeon.
Agree 100%. Had to laugh at Daily Record talking about the LibDems surging to 32.5% in the Highlands based on more than 50% of the Tories there voting tactically, However the fact that the SNP were still polling over 45% just doesnt seem to register with the poor LibDumbs. They are toast!
In about 30 hours I will know whether I have done my dough or not.
Am on Conservatives in 40 constituencies, mostly defences between 50-100 (although 5 are currently Lib Dem seats, I expect to be CON gains).
If all 40 come in, I should make a return of nearly 60% on my money. I can take about 11-13 hits (depending on the odds) before I start to lose money.
With tories at most seats at 1-5, the average of around 4-7 that these bets offer, seemed like a opportunity too good to miss.
With the polls converging late in the day, I did think about a small saver on Labour most seats, however I am a conviction punter and I still believe the polls will slightly understate the tories and overstate Labour as has been convention in most elections.
Will be happy if I show profit to be honest as a fair bit of my capital is tied up in this.
Fair enough, but I'd say it was a no-brainer to take the opportunity to hedge your risk with a saver on labour most seats. Each to his own, eh?
btw, has anyone else really struggled to find conservative value bets outside of the constituency markets? There have been pitiful odds on pretty much every bet where the tories do better than the polls. Con most seats, labour most votes has offered reasonable value - as have the lower labour seat bands - but only tonight have I been able to cover ConMaj at anything approaching fair value (£40 @ 25/1).
A re-run of Major in 1992 is all you require to land a very tidy sum, plus maybe a Tory lead of say 6% in tomorrow morning's final poll from OGH's favourite, Lord Ashcroft.
Putting together list of push/pull factors. (What have I missed?) Quite a few of the pro-Tory factors must be worth 1-3% each, which accounts for why they aren't languishing under 30% and why many people expect them to outperform the polls.
If Labour are above this, assuming Scotland goes as we think, Ed will try and govern.
Anything below 285 i expect Dave to walk pretty much instantly, above that he'll try and put together somethng
Pretty much agree but I think dave needs 285 and a 20 plus gap to Labour. For example 285/275 might be tricky, although it will need the SNP to under perform expectations to get figures like that.
Putting together list of push/pull factors. (What have I missed?) Quite a few of the pro-Tory factors must be worth 1-3% each, which accounts for why they aren't languishing under 30% and why many people expect them to outperform the polls.
economic upturn less apathetic voters David Cameron Ed Miliband newspapers 2008 crash etc incumbency SNP LibDem meltdown
The voter registration thing may still play a part. Various figures were banded about how many registered in the final days, but a full comparison with 2010 has not been published as far as I am aware. If it is an issue, I expect the likely demographics to favour the tories.
Based on the response Miliband got up North,am going for 10 Labour gains in the NW and 10 in London.
10 in London is super confident.
That is bringing the likes of Ilford North into play and I am really not sure Labour have progressed that much.
Expected Labour gains in London according to Evening Standard are Hendon,Ealing Central and Acton,Harrow East,Brentford and Isleworth,Enfield North,Brent Central and Hornsey and Wood Green.
Too close to call are Finchley and Golders Green,Ilford North,Croydon Central and Bermondsey and Southwark.
Will be voting Conservative in tomorrows election as they are likely to be 2nd place in my safe Labour constituency and the nearer it becomes to be a marginal the better for democracy.
Would probably voted Lib Dem if they had a chance here. Wish I lived 2 miles west and could vote for Simon Hughes as he will need every vote he can get.
Can't consider Labour at present until they prove themselves on the economy - might consider them next time if Ed does become PM and proves not to be crap (very doubtful!)
Of the smaller parties, I resonate with a few of the policies of UKIP and quite admire Farage, however they seem to be looking to the past more than the future and there still a bit of a nasty far right whiff on their fringes.
The Greens have some interesting policies but apart from a couple, they are mostly insane.
Maidstone doesn't seem inconceivable as a Lib Dem gain. There's a sizeable Labour vote to squeeze and as I think I've said before I expect some anti-Tory tactical voting rewind.
I work in the Maidstone area and it's definitely not safe. I'm going to have go out and vote later today to help the blue team. Grant is unpopular and the Lib Dems have been bombarding the electorate with their typical messaging it's Conservatives vs. Lib Dems here so don't waste your vote on the reds. I believe Clegg was here a week or so ago campaigning with the Lib Dem candidate. So they definitely think this seat is one of their better chances. I haven't received much communication from Labour at all. They aren't interested here.
Grant has moved to running on the national theme of stable government vs. the coalition of chaos featuring Labour and the SNP. It's probably her best chance of winning because she's so unpopular. I don't think I'd be backing Conservatives at the 1/5 on offer at various bookies. I think she'll probably still win but I don't think the odds reflect the probability of her holding on.
In about 30 hours I will know whether I have done my dough or not.
Am on Conservatives in 40 constituencies, mostly defences between 50-100 (although 5 are currently Lib Dem seats, I expect to be CON gains).
If all 40 come in, I should make a return of nearly 60% on my money. I can take about 11-13 hits (depending on the odds) before I start to lose money.
With tories at most seats at 1-5, the average of around 4-7 that these bets offer, seemed like a opportunity too good to miss.
With the polls converging late in the day, I did think about a small saver on Labour most seats, however I am a conviction punter and I still believe the polls will slightly understate the tories and overstate Labour as has been convention in most elections.
Will be happy if I show profit to be honest as a fair bit of my capital is tied up in this.
Fair enough, but I'd say it was a no-brainer to take the opportunity to hedge your risk with a saver on labour most seats. Each to his own, eh?
btw, has anyone else really struggled to find conservative value bets outside of the constituency markets? There have been pitiful odds on pretty much every bet where the tories do better than the polls. Con most seats, labour most votes has offered reasonable value - as have the lower labour seat bands - but only tonight have I been able to cover ConMaj at anything approaching fair value (£40 @ 25/1).
The difference on the "amount matched" on the betfair markets for labour seats vs tory seats tells the betting story of the election.
In about 30 hours I will know whether I have done my dough or not.
Am on Conservatives in 40 constituencies, mostly defences between 50-100 (although 5 are currently Lib Dem seats, I expect to be CON gains).
If all 40 come in, I should make a return of nearly 60% on my money. I can take about 11-13 hits (depending on the odds) before I start to lose money.
With tories at most seats at 1-5, the average of around 4-7 that these bets offer, seemed like a opportunity too good to miss.
With the polls converging late in the day, I did think about a small saver on Labour most seats, however I am a conviction punter and I still believe the polls will slightly understate the tories and overstate Labour as has been convention in most elections.
Will be happy if I show profit to be honest as a fair bit of my capital is tied up in this.
Fair enough, but I'd say it was a no-brainer to take the opportunity to hedge your risk with a saver on labour most seats. Each to his own, eh?
btw, has anyone else really struggled to find conservative value bets outside of the constituency markets? There have been pitiful odds on pretty much every bet where the tories do better than the polls. Con most seats, labour most votes has offered reasonable value - as have the lower labour seat bands - but only tonight have I been able to cover ConMaj at anything approaching fair value (£40 @ 25/1).
The difference on the "amount matched" on the betfair markets for labour seats vs tory seats tells the betting story of the election.
In about 30 hours I will know whether I have done my dough or not.
Am on Conservatives in 40 constituencies, mostly defences between 50-100 (although 5 are currently Lib Dem seats, I expect to be CON gains).
If all 40 come in, I should make a return of nearly 60% on my money. I can take about 11-13 hits (depending on the odds) before I start to lose money.
With tories at most seats at 1-5, the average of around 4-7 that these bets offer, seemed like a opportunity too good to miss.
With the polls converging late in the day, I did think about a small saver on Labour most seats, however I am a conviction punter and I still believe the polls will slightly understate the tories and overstate Labour as has been convention in most elections.
Will be happy if I show profit to be honest as a fair bit of my capital is tied up in this.
Fair enough, but I'd say it was a no-brainer to take the opportunity to hedge your risk with a saver on labour most seats. Each to his own, eh?
btw, has anyone else really struggled to find conservative value bets outside of the constituency markets? There have been pitiful odds on pretty much every bet where the tories do better than the polls. Con most seats, labour most votes has offered reasonable value - as have the lower labour seat bands - but only tonight have I been able to cover ConMaj at anything approaching fair value (£40 @ 25/1).
The difference on the "amount matched" on the betfair markets for labour seats vs tory seats tells the betting story of the election.
Maidstone doesn't seem inconceivable as a Lib Dem gain. There's a sizeable Labour vote to squeeze and as I think I've said before I expect some anti-Tory tactical voting rewind.
I work in the Maidstone area and it's definitely not safe. I'm going to have go out and vote later today to help the blue team. Grant is unpopular and the Lib Dems have been bombarding the electorate with their typical messaging it's Conservatives vs. Lib Dems here so don't waste your vote on the reds. I believe Clegg was here a week or so ago campaigning with the Lib Dem candidate. So they definitely think this seat is one of their better chances. I haven't received much communication from Labour at all. They aren't interested here.
Grant has moved to running on the national theme of stable government vs. the coalition of chaos featuring Labour and the SNP. It's probably her best chance of winning because she's so unpopular. I don't think I'd be backing Conservatives at the 1/5 on offer at various bookies. I think she'll probably still win but I don't think the odds reflect the probability of her holding on.
Much will probably depend on how much UKIP hurt the tories here.
Maidstone doesn't seem inconceivable as a Lib Dem gain. There's a sizeable Labour vote to squeeze and as I think I've said before I expect some anti-Tory tactical voting rewind.
I work in the Maidstone area and it's definitely not safe. I'm going to have go out and vote later today to help the blue team. Grant is unpopular and the Lib Dems have been bombarding the electorate with their typical messaging it's Conservatives vs. Lib Dems here so don't waste your vote on the reds. I believe Clegg was here a week or so ago campaigning with the Lib Dem candidate. So they definitely think this seat is one of their better chances. I haven't received much communication from Labour at all. They aren't interested here.
Grant has moved to running on the national theme of stable government vs. the coalition of chaos featuring Labour and the SNP. It's probably her best chance of winning because she's so unpopular. I don't think I'd be backing Conservatives at the 1/5 on offer at various bookies. I think she'll probably still win but I don't think the odds reflect the probability of her holding on.
I alerted the site to the possibility of a Tory loss here a few days ago and in fact first mentioned it on PB several months ago. Grant has a reputation of enjoying ministerial perks and travel over hard constituency graft and is definitely not popular. With Ukip taking Tory votes and Libs squeezing Lab hard it is possible Isabel Hardman's tweet has foundation. It is worth a bet if that 7/2 is still available although I'd describe Grant survival chances as 50:50 rather than "toast." Certainly though there are Orange posters on houses that have never before displayed any political affiliation,
I spent 16 hours delivering leaflets and letters to the voters of Solihull today on behalf of the Lib Dems. I have no idea how this result will pan out but I can see the current odds! In the part of the constituency I worked there were more house posters for UKIP than others but overall there were so few it didn't feel like people were bothered. The only people who asked me who I was delivering for were Labour supporters and they were going to vote Lib Dem 'to keep the Tory out'. (Don't bet on that anecdote, they may have done similar last time).
However the most important thing is I ache all over, I can hardly move. I must have walked 10k, posted nearly 1,000 leaflets into letterboxes that are no longer designed to have letters pushed into them, had the obligatory attack on my hands by a dog (but as a goalkeeper in an earlier life my reactions are still very good!) It was cold, often wet and very windy. On several occasions I thought why am I doing this but then carried on. So to anyone who has actively campaigned in this election for any party may I wish you all the best because this is not a fun job!
Will be voting Conservative in tomorrows election as they are likely to be 2nd place in my safe Labour constituency and the nearer it becomes to be a marginal the better for democracy.
Would probably voted Lib Dem if they had a chance here. Wish I lived 2 miles west and could vote for Simon Hughes as he will need every vote he can get.
Can't consider Labour at present until they prove themselves on the economy - might consider them next time if Ed does become PM and proves not to be crap (very doubtful!)
Of the smaller parties, I resonate with a few of the policies of UKIP and quite admire Farage, however they seem to be looking to the past more than the future and there still a bit of a nasty far right whiff on their fringes.
The Greens have some interesting policies but apart from a couple, they are mostly insane.
Wow ..... you really ARE a floater aren't you?
Very much so. All of the parties have some policies I like and all have some that I don't.
I probably associate myself most with the Lib Dems these days (Clegg side of the party rather than Kennedy) - I didn't really see things that way in 2010 and didn't vote for them, so don't really feel any let down as a result of coalition.
If Lib Dems move to the left post-Clegg and the tories get a lower middle class leader, I could easily switch to the tories.
As of today, I am furthest away from the Labour party, but that hasnt always been the case, as my votes for Blair in 1997 and 2001 prove.
Sgt. Sunil: All right, sweethearts, you're a team and there's nothin' to worry about. We come here, and we're gonna conquer, and we're gonna kick some, is that understood? That's what we're gonna do, sweethearts, we are going to go and get some. All right, people, on the ready line! Are ya lean?
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sgt. Sunil: Are ya mean?
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU?
PB Tories: LEAN AND MEAN!
Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU? RobD! Get on the ready line, PB Tories, get some today! Get on the ready line! Move it out! Move it out, goddammit! Get hot! One, two, three, four! Get out, get out, get out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! One, two, three, four, five, six, seven! Aaarrrrr, absolutely badasses! Let's pack 'em in! Get in there!
I spent 16 hours delivering leaflets and letters to the voters of Solihull today on behalf of the Lib Dems. I have no idea how this result will pan out but I can see the current odds! In the part of the constituency I worked there were more house posters for UKIP than others but overall there were so few it didn't feel like people were bothered. The only people who asked me who I was delivering for were Labour supporters and they were going to vote Lib Dem 'to keep the Tory out'. (Don't bet on that anecdote, they may have done similar last time).
However the most important thing is I ache all over, I can hardly move. I must have walked 10k, posted nearly 1,000 leaflets into letterboxes that are no longer designed to have letters pushed into them, had the obligatory attack on my hands by a dog (but as a goalkeeper in an earlier life my reactions are still very good!) It was cold, often wet and very windy. On several occasions I thought why am I doing this but then carried on. So to anyone who has actively campaigned in this election for any party may I wish you all the best because this is not a fun job!
Good job - hope your efforts haven't been in vain.
Con 294 Lab 247 SNP 49 LD 34 PC 3 UKIP 2 Grn 1 Res 1 Spk 1
NI 18
NPXPM chance of becoming NPMP - 64%
Signs of a slight fade in the SNP, to the benefit of Lab and LD.
First election where the 3 main parties all go backwards...
Well nobody can accuse you of following the herd...as if there was any doubt :-)
Not that it is the most important factor and things are much more complicated, but on what national vote share % are you getting to go along with your seat prediction?
Con 294 Lab 247 SNP 49 LD 34 PC 3 UKIP 2 Grn 1 Res 1 Spk 1
NI 18
NPXPM chance of becoming NPMP - 64%
Signs of a slight fade in the SNP, to the benefit of Lab and LD.
First election where the 3 main parties all go backwards...
This is a big change from what you've been predicting for years; weren't you 98% on a tory majority ?
What's changed, just the polling numbers or other factors ?
It's not a big change at all, not that I've made a specific prediction previously! L&N were (briefly) 98% or something on a Tory majority, tail end of last year. I merely said it remained a distinct possibility. It still is, although I've now come down on the other side of the fence.
Con 294 Lab 247 SNP 49 LD 34 PC 3 UKIP 2 Grn 1 Res 1 Spk 1
NI 18
NPXPM chance of becoming NPMP - 64%
Signs of a slight fade in the SNP, to the benefit of Lab and LD.
First election where the 3 main parties all go backwards...
Well nobody can accuse you of following the herd...as if there was any doubt :-)
Not that it is the most important factor and things are much more complicated, but on what national vote share % are you getting to go along with your seat prediction?
Con 294 Lab 247 SNP 49 LD 34 PC 3 UKIP 2 Grn 1 Res 1 Spk 1
NI 18
NPXPM chance of becoming NPMP - 64%
Signs of a slight fade in the SNP, to the benefit of Lab and LD.
First election where the 3 main parties all go backwards...
Interesting Rod - what are your reasons for thinking Lab will perform significantly worse relative to Con than is indicated by the latest polls?
A hunch. Miliband's disastrous personal ratings, Cameron's good ratings. Labour overestimated in 9 out of 10 final polls in the Euros 2014, Tories vice versa.
Labour vote softening in the polls over the past month.
Are you planning to do something similar tomorrow night? - or are you aware of anyone else doing a live spreadsheet?
I have running totals spreadsheets for every election from 1979 onwards.
It'll be a bit difficult to do one on the night because of the speed of results. Actually Rod tried to organise one in 2010. I think I might just sit back and enjoy watching the results with a glass of something this time for a change. Last time I was trying to fill in my target lists all night long.
Con 294 Lab 247 SNP 49 LD 34 PC 3 UKIP 2 Grn 1 Res 1 Spk 1
NI 18
NPXPM chance of becoming NPMP - 64%
Signs of a slight fade in the SNP, to the benefit of Lab and LD.
First election where the 3 main parties all go backwards...
Interesting Rod - what are your reasons for thinking Lab will perform significantly worse relative to Con than is indicated by the latest polls?
A hunch. Miliband's disastrous personal ratings, Cameron's good ratings. Labour overestimated in 9 out of 10 final polls in the Euros 2014, Tories vice versa.
Labour vote softening in the polls over the past month.
OK - thanks as always - hope you're right - but must confess I would be surprised if the polls were out as far as that.
However worth noting that, as far as I can see, we only have two polls done entirely after the Bank Holiday - ie on Tue / Wed only - namely ComRes and YouGov.
So the final polls in the morning will be interesting to see.
I was predicting a Labour minority government but I've changed my mind in the last few days and think the election will result in a Conservative minority government. My reasoning is that opinion polls indicate the voters trust them more with the economy and prefer Cameron to Miliband. Another factor is that UKIP voters overwhelmingly indicate that they'd prefer to see a Conservative government and I expect many of them to vote tactically in the marginals. (They will still have the chance of voting for UKIP in the local elections.)
Seats are more difficult to predict. I think Labour will be completely wiped out in Scotland and will struggle to get beyond 260 seats.
The SNP will take all seats in Scotland save Shetland and Orkney which will go down to the wire.
The Liberal Democrats will be down to less than 20 seats and in no mood to join another coalition.
I registered online on the 19th April - and never got a polling card or any other communication from my council.
Called them up today and they confirmed I was registered & could vote - I had to ask them which polling station to go to.
Pretty messed up really.
Glasgow City council sent me a letter around 3 weeks ago saying I'm successfully registered and a polling card will be sent for a postal vote. The card arrived on the 5th May. not enough time to send it back.
I registered online on the 19th April - and never got a polling card or any other communication from my council.
Called them up today and they confirmed I was registered & could vote - I had to ask them which polling station to go to.
Pretty messed up really.
Glasgow City council sent me a letter around 3 weeks ago saying I'm successfully registered and a polling card will be sent for a postal vote. The card arrived on the 5th May. not enough time to send it back.
I registered online on the 19th April - and never got a polling card or any other communication from my council.
Called them up today and they confirmed I was registered & could vote - I had to ask them which polling station to go to.
Pretty messed up really.
Glasgow City council sent me a letter around 3 weeks ago saying I'm successfully registered and a polling card will be sent for a postal vote. The card arrived on the 5th May. not enough time to send it back.
Our family didn't get polling cards (3 of us). I am in Bishop Auckland and the voting in the family is expected to go:-
Man : UKIP - best chance to defeat Labour Wife : Conservative (runs own company) Son : Liberal Democrat (believes in freedom to take drugs although to the best of my knowledge hasn't) Cat : Labour - gets free food courtesy of the work of others.
(I have already voted - - the names of the humans are on the list of eligible voters - the cat, fortunately, wasn't.)
Just bumped into one of my neighbours at the local Morrisons on Sheppey. Matt is an elderly Labour activist. He told me he'd been telling at one of the local polling stations.
I enquired as to activity and he said voting had been brisk (I was told the same at the station I voted in). I enquired as to how it was going for his bloke and he just shrugged and said "ok". He then added they thought they may trail in 3rd behind the Tories and UKIP. Must admit I was surprised to hear that.
As an aside I told him I dreaded the thought of a Miliband led government. His response; "he's just an ordinary, comprehensive schooled bloke, just like us". I clearly looked shocked, as he asked why I'd pulled the face. I explained I didn't think living in a £2M house was particularly ordinary. His respone; "you're talking rubbish, son".
They clearly don't like facts in the Labour party....
Con 294 Lab 247 SNP 49 LD 34 PC 3 UKIP 2 Grn 1 Res 1 Spk 1
NI 18
NPXPM chance of becoming NPMP - 64%
Signs of a slight fade in the SNP, to the benefit of Lab and LD.
First election where the 3 main parties all go backwards...
Interesting Rod - what are your reasons for thinking Lab will perform significantly worse relative to Con than is indicated by the latest polls?
A hunch. Miliband's disastrous personal ratings, Cameron's good ratings. Labour overestimated in 9 out of 10 final polls in the Euros 2014, Tories vice versa.
Labour vote softening in the polls over the past month.
Comments
That is bringing the likes of Ilford North into play and I am really not sure Labour have progressed that much.
Favour Labour
boundaries
differential turnout
GOTV
austerity
uncaring Tories
NHS
Lib Dem meltdown
Ukip
Favour Tories
economic upturn
less apathetic voters
David Cameron
Ed Miliband
newspapers
2008 crash etc
incumbency
SNP
LibDem meltdown
'Based on the response Miliband got up North,am going for 10 Labour gains in the NW and 10 in London.'
But the response from up North was from his own party members and activist !
Too close to call are Finchley and Golders Green,Ilford North,Croydon Central and Bermondsey and Southwark.
Grant has moved to running on the national theme of stable government vs. the coalition of chaos featuring Labour and the SNP. It's probably her best chance of winning because she's so unpopular. I don't think I'd be backing Conservatives at the 1/5 on offer at various bookies. I think she'll probably still win but I don't think the odds reflect the probability of her holding on.
Gosh it's exciting isn't it.
However the most important thing is I ache all over, I can hardly move. I must have walked 10k, posted nearly 1,000 leaflets into letterboxes that are no longer designed to have letters pushed into them, had the obligatory attack on my hands by a dog (but as a goalkeeper in an earlier life my reactions are still very good!) It was cold, often wet and very windy. On several occasions I thought why am I doing this but then carried on. So to anyone who has actively campaigned in this election for any party may I wish you all the best because this is not a fun job!
I probably associate myself most with the Lib Dems these days (Clegg side of the party rather than Kennedy) - I didn't really see things that way in 2010 and didn't vote for them, so don't really feel any let down as a result of coalition.
If Lib Dems move to the left post-Clegg and the tories get a lower middle class leader, I could easily switch to the tories.
As of today, I am furthest away from the Labour party, but that hasnt always been the case, as my votes for Blair in 1997 and 2001 prove.
That's what we're gonna do, sweethearts, we are going to go and get some. All right, people, on the ready line! Are ya lean?
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sgt. Sunil: Are ya mean?
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU?
PB Tories: LEAN AND MEAN!
Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU? RobD! Get on the ready line, PB Tories, get some today! Get on the ready line! Move it out! Move it out, goddammit! Get hot! One, two, three, four! Get out, get out, get out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! One, two, three, four, five, six, seven! Aaarrrrr, absolutely badasses! Let's pack 'em in! Get in there!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1f6PlK5ig7p1I9aqfMzV6AMBKKX8TPvEuqoPakoX2W_M/edit#gid=0
Are you planning to do something similar tomorrow night? - or are you aware of anyone else doing a live spreadsheet?
http://www.ilfordrecorder.co.uk/home/election-2015/parking_ticket_style_stickers_warning_muslims_not_to_vote_appear_on_cars_in_ilford_1_4062915
Con 294
Lab 247
SNP 49
LD 34
PC 3
UKIP 2
Grn 1
Res 1
Spk 1
NI 18
NPXPM chance of becoming NPMP - 64%
Signs of a slight fade in the SNP, to the benefit of Lab and LD.
First election where the 3 main parties all go backwards...
Not that it is the most important factor and things are much more complicated, but on what national vote share % are you getting to go along with your seat prediction?
What's changed, just the polling numbers or other factors ?
It still is, although I've now come down on the other side of the fence.
Labour vote softening in the polls over the past month.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-thousands-left-without-polling-cards-despite-being-registered-10230311.html
I registered online on the 19th April - and never got a polling card or any other communication from my council.
Called them up today and they confirmed I was registered & could vote - I had to ask them which polling station to go to.
Pretty messed up really.
It'll be a bit difficult to do one on the night because of the speed of results. Actually Rod tried to organise one in 2010. I think I might just sit back and enjoy watching the results with a glass of something this time for a change. Last time I was trying to fill in my target lists all night long.
So presumably you are predicting a second Conservative-Liberal Democrat Coalition?
However worth noting that, as far as I can see, we only have two polls done entirely after the Bank Holiday - ie on Tue / Wed only - namely ComRes and YouGov.
So the final polls in the morning will be interesting to see.
Seats are more difficult to predict. I think Labour will be completely wiped out in Scotland and will struggle to get beyond 260 seats.
The SNP will take all seats in Scotland save Shetland and Orkney which will go down to the wire.
The Liberal Democrats will be down to less than 20 seats and in no mood to join another coalition.
Most people are not - many will just assume their registration didn't go through properly and assume they can't vote.
Are we all excited? ;-)
Hmm.
Man : UKIP - best chance to defeat Labour
Wife : Conservative (runs own company)
Son : Liberal Democrat (believes in freedom to take drugs although to the best of my knowledge hasn't)
Cat : Labour - gets free food courtesy of the work of others.
(I have already voted - - the names of the humans are on the list of eligible voters - the cat, fortunately, wasn't.)
I enquired as to activity and he said voting had been brisk (I was told the same at the station I voted in). I enquired as to how it was going for his bloke and he just shrugged and said "ok". He then added they thought they may trail in 3rd behind the Tories and UKIP. Must admit I was surprised to hear that.
As an aside I told him I dreaded the thought of a Miliband led government. His response; "he's just an ordinary, comprehensive schooled bloke, just like us". I clearly looked shocked, as he asked why I'd pulled the face. I explained I didn't think living in a £2M house was particularly ordinary. His respone; "you're talking rubbish, son".
They clearly don't like facts in the Labour party....