politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on this final day
Comments
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Not only that, but Ukip is exactly half.MarkHopkins said:
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It is remarkable that everyone shows a lead of -2% to 3% for the Tories, despite house effects that have shown much wider variance in the campaign.
If Kellner puts the Tories 21 ahead, it must be down to cross breaks in that mammoth poll.0 -
Bigger samples for the final polls too. But it is all a bit unseemly, I agree.Stereotomy said:
Drop in "undecided but going to vote"s, probably.Philip_Thompson said:Something smells fishy with the polling numbers. A week ago there was a spread from Tory +6 to Labour +2, a range of 9. Now it seems that virtually every poll spreads from Tory +1 to Tie, a range of 2.
Smells fishy.0 -
Kellner's forecast is highly credible IMHO.bigjohnowls said:Kelner calls it for Dave
Polls say EICIPM0 -
Almost all in the middle of 37-31 either way.Philip_Thompson said:Something smells fishy with the polling numbers. A week ago there was a spread from Tory +6 to Labour +2, a range of 9. Now it seems that virtually every poll spreads from Tory +1 to Tie, a range of 2.
Smells fishy.0 -
Re Norwich South. Labour expect a 5000 majority.Tories may be second with Libdems fourth.0
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EU citizens can vote if they are resident in the UK and not registered as resident to vote in their 'home' country. My wife is German and she is voting tomorrow.JohnLilburne said:
EU citizens can only vote in local elections.NoEasyDay said:
One of the founding policies of the EU is the ability to live, work AND vote in the place you reside. Or did you change the EU constitution.asjohnstone said:
The population of the UK hasn't increased 10% in the "last few years" it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011. It's mostly been driven by births rather than immigration. Read the 2011 census for the facts.NoEasyDay said:
The population of the UK has increased by approx 10% in the last few years most of working/ voting age. We know 8 out 10 immigrants vote Labour. And even if they don't vote they can take part in polls. Where are all these folks registered to vote, well I doubt its Kensington and Chelsea. They will buy and rent where the housing is cheapest which is solidly working class areas. Labour constituencies, rock solid Labour constituencies. Labour wasted vote syndrome anybody ?
Most of the immigration that has occurred has taken place from the EU, EU citizens can't vote.
You're pretty much wrong about everything0 -
Last comment.MarkHopkins said:
Several people are, but I think the ones really taking it are the British public, so confused. Although they're also getting the piss.0 -
Finally back home. Time to catch up on seven days of Daily Politics...
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Brave call by Kellner there. Not sure what he's seen tbh (insert comment about labour panicking in the marginals etc)0
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Yep, and what chaos that would bring as a result.Casino_Royale said:
Kellner's forecast is highly credible IMHO.bigjohnowls said:Kelner calls it for Dave
Polls say EICIPM0 -
To be honest if Labour is within a percentage point of the Tories in the popular vote it would be much harder to call them illegitimate even if they are 20 behind in seats.0
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You're doing great work.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Agreed. The Media in this country are a disgrace to a modern democracy.weejonnie said:
The news pretty well only gives UKIP centre billing when the hacks sense a scandal. Hundreds of Labour and Conservative councillors are regularly up in front of the beaks for fraud, viewing child pornography etc etc - but they aren't UKIP.PrinceofTaranto said:
Well I'm not one and have never encountered any racism amongst the people I have met in the Party. if someone accused me of that openly and published it I would sue them.SquareRoot said:
UKIP are a party loaded with racists.. .. the news almost daily tells us this...PrinceofTaranto said:
No I'm sure you don't really . Him and his wife Catriona are actually really nice people if you ever meet get the chance to meet them.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don't hate him.PrinceofTaranto said:
I will be working my nuts off tomorrow for Mark to keep R&S and your hate will drive me on when I am flagging!TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm just obsessed about the pandas bet and if Reckless were to loseMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, adrenaline and tequila will keep you going.
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Casino_Royale said:
Virtually everyone tied in the final 24 hours?
Seems too neat. Too convenient.
Its all down to Ipsos Mori now to be a hero and show something different....
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Well said Mark,MarqueeMark said:The campaign is over.
Well done to all those workers from each party who are going to bed tonight with aching bodies. You have given the voters a choice. Democracy can ask no more of you.
Whether the ungrateful bastards vote your guy in is out of your hands now.
I don't agree with many posters on this site but I have found the debate and passion stimulating !
I have found the information from constituencies especially interesting even if anecdotal and subjective.
Thank you to all of you-PB will be an essential companion tomorrow night.0 -
Whats your model predicting now?RodCrosby said:9 out of 10 of the final polls overestimated Labour at the Euros.
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All the anecdotal stuff of people I have spoken to this past few days has been going right - LibDems to Tory, UKIP to Tory, LibDem to Labour. Throughout, found not one Tory to LibDem.peter_from_putney said:
MM ..... do you have a final prediction for Torbay, caveated or otherwise?MarqueeMark said:The campaign is over.
Well done to all those workers from each party who are going to bed tonight with aching bodies. You have given the voters a choice. Democracy can ask no more of you.
Whether the ungrateful bastards vote your guy in is out of your hands now.
For the first time in recent history, Torbay Tories have beaten the LibDems in the leaflet war - and by a large margin. We are about to find out if Lynton Crosby's faith in mass leafleting works. There are several wards that in the past have been leafletted hardly at all - they've been carpet-bombed this time. UKIP's effort seems to have been heaviest in the better LibDem areas. Plus plenty of Green posters in those areas this time.
LibDems still massively ahead in poster wars, but then the Tories don't play that game - and people who have worked the seat before say many less LibDem poster sites than last time. Plus the final LibDem leaflet seems to suggest they are rattled - playing the man, not the ball.
I am emotionally just too damned close to it though. My best guess is Kevin Foster by 1,000 - 2,000. But maybe the wish is father to the thought. Sanders has proved to be stickier than a barnacle.
But I am told there has been some significant money going on Kevin in the past 48 hours.0 -
Kellner:
“If the Conservatives win ten seats more than my central prediction [284], then Cameron is sure to remain PM.
“But if he wins ten seats fewer, his career will be over."
Talk about brown trousers job....
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The one concern I would have is what were the fieldwork dates for the final polls? ICM was Sunday to Wednesday so should be ignored. What about the others?0
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I'm really not sure the public are going to see it that way. I fear that they'll say whoever comes first, however close the finish is, has the right to take all, no different to a marathon winner.FrankBooth said:To be honest if Labour is within a percentage point of the Tories in the popular vote it would be much harder to call them illegitimate even if they are 20 behind in seats.
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Rallings says COMRES means LAB 288 CON 269
"Its all over for Dave" according to ITN
Betfair thinks Dave is PM and has LAB most seats at 4/10 -
Nigel Farage?Sigmund said:
EU citizens can vote if they are resident in the UK and not registered as resident to vote in their 'home' country. My wife is German and she is voting tomorrow.JohnLilburne said:
EU citizens can only vote in local elections.NoEasyDay said:
One of the founding policies of the EU is the ability to live, work AND vote in the place you reside. Or did you change the EU constitution.asjohnstone said:
The population of the UK hasn't increased 10% in the "last few years" it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011. It's mostly been driven by births rather than immigration. Read the 2011 census for the facts.NoEasyDay said:
The population of the UK has increased by approx 10% in the last few years most of working/ voting age. We know 8 out 10 immigrants vote Labour. And even if they don't vote they can take part in polls. Where are all these folks registered to vote, well I doubt its Kensington and Chelsea. They will buy and rent where the housing is cheapest which is solidly working class areas. Labour constituencies, rock solid Labour constituencies. Labour wasted vote syndrome anybody ?
Most of the immigration that has occurred has taken place from the EU, EU citizens can't vote.
You're pretty much wrong about everything0 -
Sorry, Tory Newton Dunn won the competition earlier. Latecomers don't count.chestnut said:Have I got this right?
11 pollsters - and Panelbase are the only ones with a Labour lead?0 -
Isabel Hardman @IsabelHardman ·
Plus gossip from the ground is Helen Grant is toast in Maidstone and The Weald http://specc.ie/1dO3vVp
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When does that come out?JonathanD said:Casino_Royale said:Virtually everyone tied in the final 24 hours?
Seems too neat. Too convenient.
Its all down to Ipsos Mori now to be a hero and show something different....0 -
?!?!?!!?!?Tykejohnno said:Isabel Hardman @IsabelHardman ·
Plus gossip from the ground is Helen Grant is toast in Maidstone and The Weald http://specc.ie/1dO3vVp0 -
Could be the other way round,bigjohnowls said:Rallings says COMRES means LAB 288 CON 269
"Its all over for Dave" according to ITN
Betfair thinks Dave is PM and has LAB most seats at 4/10 -
The Tories appear to have slipped the odd 1% or so over the last 24 hrs, or Labour has gained to the same extent.
Given a more or less dead heat in the polls across the board, the really odd thing is that Con seats mid-spread on Sporting is at its pre-election high of 290 seats. By any normal reckoning this looks around 15-20 seats too high.
Are punters gambling on a repeat of Major in 1992?0 -
To 1 decimal place? This is starting to take the piss.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Someone mentioned it as a possible LD gain here during the week. Odds must have been quite generous!Tykejohnno said:Isabel Hardman @IsabelHardman ·
Plus gossip from the ground is Helen Grant is toast in Maidstone and The Weald http://specc.ie/1dO3vVp
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Well win or lose, despite valiant efforts from the ground troops the CCHQ campaign has been surprisingly dire. Shockingly so. Expected something devastating, but it simply never happened.
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I'm sticking with jackW,I'm sure he won't let me down ;-)compouter2 said:
Whats your model predicting now?RodCrosby said:9 out of 10 of the final polls overestimated Labour at the Euros.
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Greens will certainly be second and much closer than 5k.justin124 said:Re Norwich South. Labour expect a 5000 majority.Tories may be second with Libdems fourth.
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Who will be doing the toasting, UKIP?Danny565 said:
?!?!?!!?!?Tykejohnno said:Isabel Hardman @IsabelHardman ·
Plus gossip from the ground is Helen Grant is toast in Maidstone and The Weald http://specc.ie/1dO3vVp0 -
UKPollingReport down...0
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Tory maj nailed on.RodCrosby said:9 out of 10 of the final polls overestimated Labour at the Euros.
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People on the UK Polling Report page for that seat have been going on for ages about how it's a potential LD gain, but I assumed that was a delusion.Neil said:
Someone mentioned it as a possible LD gain here during the week. Odds must have been quite generous!Tykejohnno said:Isabel Hardman @IsabelHardman ·
Plus gossip from the ground is Helen Grant is toast in Maidstone and The Weald http://specc.ie/1dO3vVp0 -
There was a constituency poll by the Lib Dems that had them 5% behind. What a result that would be for them.Tykejohnno said:Isabel Hardman @IsabelHardman ·
Plus gossip from the ground is Helen Grant is toast in Maidstone and The Weald http://specc.ie/1dO3vVp0 -
New Thread0
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If you believe in the #Jockalypse (as I do) then I don't see how Lab can get most seats, if you think the #Jockalyspe is all smoke and no fire then Lab Most seats 4/1 is insane.0
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I would like to give a huge thank you to Lynton Crosby for running the worse Tory Election Campaign in my lifetime, add this to the amount of money he has robbed from Tory coffers and he must be up for some kind of award.
Lynton I salute you!0 -
Many thanks for that and good luck ..... you deserve it!MarqueeMark said:
All the anecdotal stuff of people I have spoken to this past few days has been going right - LibDems to Tory, UKIP to Tory, LibDem to Labour. Throughout, found not one Tory to LibDem.peter_from_putney said:
MM ..... do you have a final prediction for Torbay, caveated or otherwise?MarqueeMark said:The campaign is over.
Well done to all those workers from each party who are going to bed tonight with aching bodies. You have given the voters a choice. Democracy can ask no more of you.
Whether the ungrateful bastards vote your guy in is out of your hands now.
For the first time in recent history, Torbay Tories have beaten the LibDems in the leaflet war - and by a large margin. We are about to find out if Lynton Crosby's faith in mass leafleting works. There are several wards that in the past have been leafletted hardly at all - they've been carpet-bombed this time. UKIP's effort seems to have been heaviest in the better LibDem areas. Plus plenty of Green posters in those areas this time.
LibDems still massively ahead in poster wars, but then the Tories don't play that game - and people who have worked the seat before say many less LibDem poster sites than last time. Plus the final LibDem leaflet seems to suggest they are rattled - playing the man, not the ball.
I am emotionally just too damned close to it though. My best guess is Kevin Foster by 1,000 - 2,000. But maybe the wish is father to the thought. Sanders has proved to be stickier than a barnacle.
But I am told there has been some significant money going on Kevin in the past 48 hours.
Will you be at the count and declaration btw?0 -
Yes and it was a nightmare. They ditched Children's BBC that day, in favour of unwatchable programmes about the election. Then the bastards did it again the following October.Sandpit said:
Quite. This is the election of a lifetime.Casino_Royale said:
I think we all will be at this rate.SouthamObserver said:Should I drink alcohol tomorrow evening? I am sorely tempted.
Do any of the site's more esteemed contributors have memories of February 1974 and what that was like to live through?
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Peter No, Comres Yougov show Tories unchanged, Survation slightly up0
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Betfair suggests enfield north is a nailed on Lab winHertsmere_Pubgoer said:Evening all,
I've received an email from Labour asking me to help the GOTV operation in my nearest marginal. A legacy from when I joined for £1 to help elect Ed as leader.
According to the email, this happens to be Stevenage.
Enfield North is only about 0.7 of a mile away. Is Enfield North not considered a marginal anymore?0 -
As I keep saying the illogic and consequences of it all is doing people's heads in.kle4 said:
Last comment.MarkHopkins said:
Several people are, but I think the ones really taking it are the British public, so confused. Although they're also getting the piss.
If by any chance Kellner is right, then British opinion polling is pants.0 -
Nice cartoon, Marf!0
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JonCisBack said:
??? Can that be right? £103? That's about a fiver a gameTykejohnno said:On the brilliant messi -
Christian Guy @ChristianGuy_ ·
Cheapest Barcelona season ticket: £103
Cheapest Shrewsbury Town season ticket: £250
It's £12 to watch Bishops Stortford, and frankly if they paid me £12 to stay until the end it would be overpriced...
WTF ??TheScreamingEagles said:
How can YOUGOV be tied and so stable but Kellner say 20+ more Conservative seats??0 -
I reckon Dave next PM on Betfair lasts less than next 60mins.
LAB most seats at 4.9 will tighten too0 -
Remarkable unanimity. If the outcome isn't pretty much a tie in votes, the polling industry will need to emigrate to Azerbaijan.
Yes, I remember Feb 1984 pretty well. I was really surprised when Labour won as the print media were much stronger then, and pushing the apparently powerful "Who governs Britain?" line. Retrospectively, I think it was the British urge to compromise that did it - there was a sense that the Government was hell-bent on winning outright over the miners, and people weren't ready for that.
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Yes. The votes don't start counting until 2.00 am though, so says my letter! Yawn.....peter_from_putney said:
Many thanks for that and good luck ..... you deserve it!MarqueeMark said:
All the anecdotal stuff of people I have spoken to this past few days has been going right - LibDems to Tory, UKIP to Tory, LibDem to Labour. Throughout, found not one Tory to LibDem.peter_from_putney said:
MM ..... do you have a final prediction for Torbay, caveated or otherwise?MarqueeMark said:The campaign is over.
Well done to all those workers from each party who are going to bed tonight with aching bodies. You have given the voters a choice. Democracy can ask no more of you.
Whether the ungrateful bastards vote your guy in is out of your hands now.
For the first time in recent history, Torbay Tories have beaten the LibDems in the leaflet war - and by a large margin. We are about to find out if Lynton Crosby's faith in mass leafleting works. There are several wards that in the past have been leafletted hardly at all - they've been carpet-bombed this time. UKIP's effort seems to have been heaviest in the better LibDem areas. Plus plenty of Green posters in those areas this time.
LibDems still massively ahead in poster wars, but then the Tories don't play that game - and people who have worked the seat before say many less LibDem poster sites than last time. Plus the final LibDem leaflet seems to suggest they are rattled - playing the man, not the ball.
I am emotionally just too damned close to it though. My best guess is Kevin Foster by 1,000 - 2,000. But maybe the wish is father to the thought. Sanders has proved to be stickier than a barnacle.
But I am told there has been some significant money going on Kevin in the past 48 hours.
Will you be at the count and declaration btw?0 -
Should have said 6 mins its CROSSOVER already0
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Tyke A Maidstone poll gave the Tories a small lead in Maidstone, so they wheeled out Ann Widdecombe which should see them home0
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Interesting: Peter Kellner predicts another Con/LD coalition with DUP support.0
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Are you tough enough? Hell, yes, you're tough enoughTheScreamingEagles said:So I have to edit PB tonight, nice quiet night I hope, with not much happening.
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Your wife. This could have some bearing on why she is resident in the UK.Sigmund said:
EU citizens can vote if they are resident in the UK and not registered as resident to vote in their 'home' country. My wife is German and she is voting tomorrow.JohnLilburne said:
EU citizens can only vote in local elections.NoEasyDay said:
One of the founding policies of the EU is the ability to live, work AND vote in the place you reside. Or did you change the EU constitution.asjohnstone said:
The population of the UK hasn't increased 10% in the "last few years" it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011. It's mostly been driven by births rather than immigration. Read the 2011 census for the facts.NoEasyDay said:
The population of the UK has increased by approx 10% in the last few years most of working/ voting age. We know 8 out 10 immigrants vote Labour. And even if they don't vote they can take part in polls. Where are all these folks registered to vote, well I doubt its Kensington and Chelsea. They will buy and rent where the housing is cheapest which is solidly working class areas. Labour constituencies, rock solid Labour constituencies. Labour wasted vote syndrome anybody ?
Most of the immigration that has occurred has taken place from the EU, EU citizens can't vote.
You're pretty much wrong about everything
Your spouse who could well decide to take British citizenship should she choose.0 -
Wouldn't be surprised if Lord A comes out with a 10% Tory lead on the morning of the election given the way his polls have jumped around - I'm sure one of the anonymous polling companies he uses will come up with something to give the Tories a boost at the 11th hour! .JonathanD said:Casino_Royale said:Virtually everyone tied in the final 24 hours?
Seems too neat. Too convenient.
Its all down to Ipsos Mori now to be a hero and show something different....0 -
That would be extremely unlucky.Tykejohnno said:Isabel Hardman @IsabelHardman ·
Plus gossip from the ground is Helen Grant is toast in Maidstone and The Weald http://specc.ie/1dO3vVp0 -
RT Some UKIP swingback to Tories and Labour losses in Scotland I believe0
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NEW THREAD0
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NOM still inexplicably available at 1.06
Who are these people?0 -
You mean 1974, right? Thatcher was being pretty firm on the miners in 1984, IIRC.NickPalmer said:Remarkable unanimity. If the outcome isn't pretty much a tie in votes, the polling industry will need to emigrate to Azerbaijan.
Yes, I remember Feb 1984 pretty well. I was really surprised when Labour won as the print media were much stronger then, and pushing the apparently powerful "Who governs Britain?" line. Retrospectively, I think it was the British urge to compromise that did it - there was a sense that the Government was hell-bent on winning outright over the miners, and people weren't ready for that.0 -
Mid-Staffs probably has a causal link to pfi contracts and the conservatives are no doubt fully in favour of those. That's the country we live in alas.Mortimer said:I suppose the autopsy begins here whatever the result, and I still hope for a Tory maj.
One failure I can point to in the Tory campaign is failing to draw attention to:
1) Mid-staffs
2) PFI contracts
Both fit into the 'competence' theme whilst totally undermining the 'we're good at the NHS stuff' that Labour carp on about.0 -
SurrealCasino_Royale said:
That would be extremely unlucky.Tykejohnno said:Isabel Hardman @IsabelHardman ·
Plus gossip from the ground is Helen Grant is toast in Maidstone and The Weald http://specc.ie/1dO3vVp
'Helen Grant is toast in Maidstone' would presumably mean that a collapse of LDs votes to Labour and a the rise in UKIP votes has given the seat to a Labour candidate called Dr. Rav Seeruthun - someone who helped campaign for Barack Obama.
Pretty soon all Labour's candidates will work for the NHS and they will win 650 seats even in Scotland.
The Speccy comment from an article bigging up their own coverage also says ''One fighting off a strong Labour challenge said he thought he was safe, while another trying to gain a seat said it looked as though their constituency would be blue by Friday''
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Over the last few weeks I have not met a Yes voter who will not vote SNP or a No voter who will vote SNP. This leads me to think the polls maybe right with the SNP heading for 45% of the vote give or take a few based on turnout. The seats where the SNP will not do as well are not the big Labour seats in Glasgow but areas like the borders.0
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Because:RepublicanTory said:JonCisBack said:
??? Can that be right? £103? That's about a fiver a gameTykejohnno said:On the brilliant messi -
Christian Guy @ChristianGuy_ ·
Cheapest Barcelona season ticket: £103
Cheapest Shrewsbury Town season ticket: £250
It's £12 to watch Bishops Stortford, and frankly if they paid me £12 to stay until the end it would be overpriced...
WTF ??TheScreamingEagles said:
How can YOUGOV be tied and so stable but Kellner say 20+ more Conservative seats??
a) last minute voter shift - a significant percentage may change their minds. OR
b) He's CYA against a re-run of 1992. OR
c) he thinks yougov methodology is actually incorrect.
d) He thinks there won't be a UNS and Tories/Lib dems may be more willing to scratch their partner's backs in the red-blue and red-yellow marginals
Most likely a or b
very difficult to work out what the 'soft' voters are going to do.
A HAPPY GENERAL ELECTION DAY TO EVERYONE. MAY YOUR BET ALL COME IN.0
