Stig Abell @StigAbell 23m23 minutes ago Tories to lead coalition on weekdays; Labour at weekends and on holidays. Shared custody of Nick Clegg, obviously.
YouGov is definitely looking like a 10,000 sample tie.
The population of the UK has increased by approx 10% in the last few years most of working/ voting age. We know 8 out 10 immigrants vote Labour. And even if they don't vote they can take part in polls. Where are all these folks registered to vote, well I doubt its Kensington and Chelsea. They will buy and rent where the housing is cheapest which is solidly working class areas. Labour constituencies, rock solid Labour constituencies. Labour wasted vote syndrome anybody ?
The population of the UK hasn't increased 10% in the "last few years" it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011. It's mostly been driven by births rather than immigration. Read the 2011 census for the facts.
Most of the immigration that has occurred has taken place from the EU, EU citizens can't vote.
You're pretty much wrong about everything
One of the founding policies of the EU is the ability to live, work AND vote in the place you reside. Or did you change the EU constitution.
The 2011 census was four years ago and the work compiling obviously predates that. In fact if it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011 its not hard to see it going up a further 3% over the next four years.
Should I drink alcohol tomorrow evening? I am sorely tempted.
I think we all will be at this rate.
Quite. This is the election of a lifetime.
Do any of the site's more esteemed contributors have memories of February 1974 and what that was like to live through?
It's a secret that actually every poster on here is 25 years old or younger, hence the excitability combined with certainty of opinion.
In all honesty, I too would be interested to know what it was like.
Whilst disappointed with the result I would rate it way above this one for the quality of the arguments and campaigning. Heath called an Election because he thought he would walk it and see the Miners off unfortunately half way through a report came out backing up the miners wage claim! Nevertheless the result was still a shock to many and we had the undignified sight of Heath clinging on whilst not even being the largest Party. We then all came back for a re run in October with just as inconclusive a result. I think this has been quite the worst GE I can remember for the paucity of arguments in any meaningful sense. Friday morning we will all have been served a right dogs breakfast.
Unfortunately I am a firm believer that we get the politicians that we deserve - our political class would not be what it is or treat us as they treat us if it had not worked on us. It's why they so often take voters for granted - it's very rare that it ever costs them.
After clocking up nearly 25 miles on foot today, I'm feeling positive that Dorset will go entirely blue tomorrow! Far, far fewer orange in Mid Dorset than I've ever seen before.
The population of the UK has increased by approx 10% in the last few years most of working/ voting age. We know 8 out 10 immigrants vote Labour. And even if they don't vote they can take part in polls. Where are all these folks registered to vote, well I doubt its Kensington and Chelsea. They will buy and rent where the housing is cheapest which is solidly working class areas. Labour constituencies, rock solid Labour constituencies. Labour wasted vote syndrome anybody ?
The population of the UK hasn't increased 10% in the "last few years" it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011. It's mostly been driven by births rather than immigration. Read the 2011 census for the facts.
Most of the immigration that has occurred has taken place from the EU, EU citizens can't vote.
You're pretty much wrong about everything
One of the founding policies of the EU is the ability to live, work AND vote in the place you reside. Or did you change the EU constitution.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the eve of poll SUPER ARSE with added SUPER APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 5th May Projection) :
Con 302 (-2) .. Lab 251 (+2) .. LibDem 28 (NC) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 24 seats short of a majority
Turnout Projection .. 68% (+0.5)
All of this seems plausible except SNP 42 looks quite low.
This is probably SLAB's best video of their campaign, simple messaging, a few glimpses of Jim, Brown ranting and no mention of the SNP. All was going fine until the end of the video, when I expected Jim to pop up, instead we get Eddie Izzard in make up and a skirt speaking posh !!
Should I drink alcohol tomorrow evening? I am sorely tempted.
I think we all will be at this rate.
Quite. This is the election of a lifetime.
Do any of the site's more esteemed contributors have memories of February 1974 and what that was like to live through?
We didn't have Twitter or even smart phones
I still had a black and white 14" TV.
However I remember the election of October 1964 much more clearly. I made my first political bet that October. I was certain the Labour would win. A college friend said if I was certain (he was reading philosophy) I would obviously accept a bet at 100/1. I felt obliged to say yes. It was £100 to £1 which was a lot of money at that time. I sweated that election. It taught me a lesson about certainty (and betting).
I like that it tells you to turn over the leaflet to find out how to beat Labour in Sheffield Hallam. What mystery action are they recommending can beat them?
A Lib-Lab pact would be great fun if Clegg were somehow still Labour. He'll say, look, I did stop Labour here, and even though I am in government with them now, that's still better than another Labour MP, right?
If he is still leader and DPM 2 months from now I firmly believe he will be leader forever, as he will have proven himself to be politically immortal.
The population of the UK has increased by approx 10% in the last few years most of working/ voting age. We know 8 out 10 immigrants vote Labour. And even if they don't vote they can take part in polls. Where are all these folks registered to vote, well I doubt its Kensington and Chelsea. They will buy and rent where the housing is cheapest which is solidly working class areas. Labour constituencies, rock solid Labour constituencies. Labour wasted vote syndrome anybody ?
The population of the UK hasn't increased 10% in the "last few years" it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011. It's mostly been driven by births rather than immigration. Read the 2011 census for the facts.
Most of the immigration that has occurred has taken place from the EU, EU citizens can't vote.
You're pretty much wrong about everything
The 2011 census was four years ago and the work compiling obviously predates that.
Er, actually it doesn't. It wasn't "compiled", it was filled in by the residents of the UK for a single day in 2011. The work in assembling and reporting the data is post hoc.
After clocking up nearly 25 miles on foot today, I'm feeling positive that Dorset will go entirely blue tomorrow! Far, far fewer orange in Mid Dorset than I've ever seen before.
The population of the UK has increased by approx 10% in the last few years most of working/ voting age. We know 8 out 10 immigrants vote Labour. And even if they don't vote they can take part in polls. Where are all these folks registered to vote, well I doubt its Kensington and Chelsea. They will buy and rent where the housing is cheapest which is solidly working class areas. Labour constituencies, rock solid Labour constituencies. Labour wasted vote syndrome anybody ?
The population of the UK hasn't increased 10% in the "last few years" it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011. It's mostly been driven by births rather than immigration. Read the 2011 census for the facts.
Most of the immigration that has occurred has taken place from the EU, EU citizens can't vote.
You're pretty much wrong about everything
One of the founding policies of the EU is the ability to live, work AND vote in the place you reside. Or did you change the EU constitution.
Logic: (1) Conservative vote will hold up very strongly motivated by fear of Ed; Blue Kippers will head back to Conservatives to stop him. Also LD switch to Conservative (see 3); I haven't factored in possible "shy Tory" factor in London (i.e. people who say they will vote Labour but worry about the Mansion Tax and then vote Tory).
(2) Labour vote will be soft; no real desire to see Ed as PM; old rallying calls of "Save the NHS" no longer work (Wales, mid-Staffs); postal vote advantage eroded since last time by IRV; strong chance polls not picking up a significant body of WWC who will actually vote UKIP even if they say they tell the pollster they will vote Labour;
(3) LD will do weaker as a lot of their Tory-leaning supporters will be fearful by the possibility the LDs could do a deal with Labour. Conservatives will therefore pick up most of the LD-Tory challenges. Most LD-Labour fights probably lost with some exceptions with tactical voting (I actually think Hornsey and Wood Green will be close);
(4) SNP: no-one can accept a revolution until it actually happens. Labour's brand appears to be now trashed up there and there is no downside to voting SNP for many Scots. Suspect there will not be much Conservative tactical help for Labour;
(5) UKIP - Carswell to win, and Farage; Reckless to lose. However, UKIP to pick up a few others (H&M, Dudley North and the Rotherham / Rother Valley seats plus one or two other possibilities).
Should I drink alcohol tomorrow evening? I am sorely tempted.
I think we all will be at this rate.
Quite. This is the election of a lifetime.
Do any of the site's more esteemed contributors have memories of February 1974 and what that was like to live through?
It's a secret that actually every poster on here is 25 years old or younger, hence the excitability combined with certainty of opinion.
In all honesty, I too would be interested to know what it was like.
Whilst disappointed with the result I would rate it way above this one for the quality of the arguments and campaigning. Heath called an Election because he thought he would walk it and see the Miners off unfortunately half way through a report came out backing up the miners wage claim! Nevertheless the result was still a shock to many and we had the undignified sight of Heath clinging on whilst not even being the largest Party. We then all came back for a re run in October with just as inconclusive a result. I think this has been quite the worst GE I can remember for the paucity of arguments in any meaningful sense. Friday morning we will all have been served a right dogs breakfast.
Unfortunately I am a firm believer that we get the politicians that we deserve - our political class would not be what it is or treat us as they treat us if it had not worked on us. It's why they so often take voters for granted - it's very rare that it ever costs them.
I think the politicians are about to see what happens when the voters are taken for granted.
Went to pick up my daughter from netball club at the local school. Polling Station signs up already
THIS IS NOT A DRILL PEOPLE!
I am so geekily excited even though I am still quite torn as to what I want to happen. Can;t see the tories winning by loads (pref #1) so I think I might want labour to sneak it if it's basically a draw as the polls suggest, because they will be handed a pig in a poke.
Can't help feeling that my parents will be the main winners though...they are both polling station clerks in lovely Warwickshire villages at £150 for a day reading some books and sitting on their backsides!
As long as you applied before the deadline, surely you should be able to contact Hackney council tomorrow to get put on the register. They should be pulling all the stops out as an emergency measure.
Should I drink alcohol tomorrow evening? I am sorely tempted.
I think we all will be at this rate.
Quite. This is the election of a lifetime.
Do any of the site's more esteemed contributors have memories of February 1974 and what that was like to live through?
It's a secret that actually every poster on here is 25 years old or younger, hence the excitability combined with certainty of opinion.
In all honesty, I too would be interested to know what it was like.
Whilst disappointed with the result I would rate it way above this one for the quality of the arguments and campaigning. Heath called an Election because he thought he would walk it and see the Miners off unfortunately half way through a report came out backing up the miners wage claim! Nevertheless the result was still a shock to many and we had the undignified sight of Heath clinging on whilst not even being the largest Party. We then all came back for a re run in October with just as inconclusive a result. I think this has been quite the worst GE I can remember for the paucity of arguments in any meaningful sense. Friday morning we will all have been served a right dogs breakfast.
Unfortunately I am a firm believer that we get the politicians that we deserve - our political class would not be what it is or treat us as they treat us if it had not worked on us. It's why they so often take voters for granted - it's very rare that it ever costs them.
I think the politicians are about to see what happens when the voters are taken for granted.
Some of them, and at long last, but mostly in Scotland alone. The others are shaken, but they can still rely on us.
Can't help feeling that my parents will be the main winners though...they are both polling station clerks in lovely Warwickshire villages at £150 for a day reading some books and sitting on their backsides!
Logic: (1) Conservative vote will hold up very strongly motivated by fear of Ed; Blue Kippers will head back to Conservatives to stop him. Also LD switch to Conservative (see 3); I haven't factored in possible "shy Tory" factor in London (i.e. people who say they will vote Labour but worry about the Mansion Tax and then vote Tory).
(2) Labour vote will be soft; no real desire to see Ed as PM; old rallying calls of "Save the NHS" no longer work (Wales, mid-Staffs); postal vote advantage eroded since last time by IRV; strong chance polls not picking up a significant body of WWC who will actually vote UKIP even if they say they tell the pollster they will vote Labour;
(3) LD will do weaker as a lot of their Tory-leaning supporters will be fearful by the possibility the LDs could do a deal with Labour. Conservatives will therefore pick up most of the LD-Tory challenges. Most LD-Labour fights probably lost with some exceptions with tactical voting (I actually think Hornsey and Wood Green will be close);
(4) SNP: no-one can accept a revolution until it actually happens. Labour's brand appears to be now trashed up there and there is no downside to voting SNP for many Scots. Suspect there will not be much Conservative tactical help for Labour;
(5) UKIP - Carswell to win, and Farage; Reckless to lose. However, UKIP to pick up a few others (H&M, Dudley North and the Rotherham / Rother Valley seats plus one or two other possibilities).
5 would be a very good night for UKIP. I'm sticking with 3: Clacton, Rochester, and one of Thanet South or Thurrock.
The population of the UK has increased by approx 10% in the last few years most of working/ voting age. We know 8 out 10 immigrants vote Labour. And even if they don't vote they can take part in polls. Where are all these folks registered to vote, well I doubt its Kensington and Chelsea. They will buy and rent where the housing is cheapest which is solidly working class areas. Labour constituencies, rock solid Labour constituencies. Labour wasted vote syndrome anybody ?
The population of the UK hasn't increased 10% in the "last few years" it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011. It's mostly been driven by births rather than immigration. Read the 2011 census for the facts.
Most of the immigration that has occurred has taken place from the EU, EU citizens can't vote.
You're pretty much wrong about everything
The 2011 census was four years ago and the work compiling obviously predates that.
Er, actually it doesn't. It wasn't "compiled", it was filled in by the residents of the UK for a single day in 2011. The work in assembling and reporting the data is post hoc.
Can't help feeling that my parents will be the main winners though...they are both polling station clerks in lovely Warwickshire villages at £150 for a day reading some books and sitting on their backsides!
£150! Where do you sign up for that?
Not sure, they don't always get the gig. It's £200 if you are "senior" (the one who has to drive the boxes to the leisure centre/town hall)
The population of the UK has increased by approx 10% in the last few years most of working/ voting age. We know 8 out 10 immigrants vote Labour. And even if they don't vote they can take part in polls. Where are all these folks registered to vote, well I doubt its Kensington and Chelsea. They will buy and rent where the housing is cheapest which is solidly working class areas. Labour constituencies, rock solid Labour constituencies. Labour wasted vote syndrome anybody ?
The population of the UK hasn't increased 10% in the "last few years" it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011. It's mostly been driven by births rather than immigration. Read the 2011 census for the facts.
Most of the immigration that has occurred has taken place from the EU, EU citizens can't vote.
You're pretty much wrong about everything
One of the founding policies of the EU is the ability to live, work AND vote in the place you reside. Or did you change the EU constitution.
EU citizens can only vote in local elections.
And European elections.
But Australians can vote in the UK elections.
All Commonwealth citizens can. My Canadian friend is voting.
Can't help feeling that my parents will be the main winners though...they are both polling station clerks in lovely Warwickshire villages at £150 for a day reading some books and sitting on their backsides!
£150! Where do you sign up for that?
Not sure, they don't always get the gig. It's £200 if you are "senior" (the one who has to drive the boxes to the leisure centre/town hall)
I always thought local authorities just used current and former staff by and large for electoral duties, and that once on the list they'll keep using you.
Can't help feeling that my parents will be the main winners though...they are both polling station clerks in lovely Warwickshire villages at £150 for a day reading some books and sitting on their backsides!
£150! Where do you sign up for that?
Not sure, they don't always get the gig. It's £200 if you are "senior" (the one who has to drive the boxes to the leisure centre/town hall)
I always thought local authorities just used current and former staff by and large for electoral duties, and that once on the list they'll keep using you.
Well they have never worked for a local authority that much I do know. I will ask them
I am so geekily excited even though I am still quite torn as to what I want to happen. Can;t see the tories winning by loads (pref #1) so I think I might want labour to sneak it if it's basically a draw as the polls suggest, because they will be handed a pig in a poke.
My feeling too - if it's a dead heat then let Ed deal with the mess. But then I'm gonna be out of the country for most of the next 6 months and not have to deal with him being in power!
Mr. kle4, I did counting once (locals). I did get invited back, but didn't go. [Tip for those attending: don't stand right by the ****ing table. The counter's job isn't too difficult, but is made easier by not having a youthful moron unwittingly presenting their crotch at eye level two feet away].
I certainly did get even £100, but it was a little while ago.
I like that it tells you to turn over the leaflet to find out how to beat Labour in Sheffield Hallam. What mystery action are they recommending can beat them?
A Lib-Lab pact would be great fun if Clegg were somehow still Labour. He'll say, look, I did stop Labour here, and even though I am in government with them now, that's still better than another Labour MP, right?
If he is still leader and DPM 2 months from now I firmly believe he will be leader forever, as he will have proven himself to be politically immortal.
Wonder what the tactical Tories of Hallam would make of that ?
I'm sorry to say I have ruled out a comedy vote for the Greens, as they didn't even put anything through the door, so I'm not rewarding that lack of effort.
That leaves Con/LD/UKIP/Lab
Con - I do have a lot of time for Cameron, but he's on the way out, and who knows what the Tories will look like a week from now. LD - I've voted for them in the past, and I think the coalition has done alright, but I don't know, I'm just feeling reluctant for some reason. UKIP - I would like UKIP to do well, on the basis that I think more parties should get more representation, though I don't find that that appealing Lab - They haven't wowed me, and due to geographic specific culture I'm generally a bit more wary of them, but I think Ed will be more competent even in the face of some difficult challenges than many think, and maybe I should back the winning team(nationally at any rate)
Should I drink alcohol tomorrow evening? I am sorely tempted.
I think we all will be at this rate.
Quite. This is the election of a lifetime.
Do any of the site's more esteemed contributors have memories of February 1974 and what that was like to live through?
We didn't have Twitter or even smart phones
Ha, very good Mike, I did think of adding that we didn't have PB in 1974!
BTW, will we be getting a donate button, as I'm hoping to win some money in the next couple of days and would like to contribute to your hosting bill? I'm sure I'm not the only one either!
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers · Our final pre-election poll from @ComResPolls due at 10pm: interesting stuff on voting intention, preferred PM and undecideds #GE2015
Random, completely unsubstantiated guess? The fact now practically all the polls, not just most of them, are pointing to EICIPM has finally convinced some people the polls are simply wrong, so Cameron must therefore be doing better and they can get good odds on that now before people realise the 'truth'.
Sometimes elections people think are too close to call are not actually too close to call - this one might be in terms of the vote share, and even most seats, but the outcome really is not seeming that close, it's just that many people cannot believe that it is not that close, so predict and bet accordingly.
Or I'm an idiot - we'll see tomorrow (or more likely Friday or even Saturday, as I'm at a count then to work on Friday.)
Not sure, they don't always get the gig. It's £200 if you are "senior" (the one who has to drive the boxes to the leisure centre/town hall)
With no DL, I'm clearly not management material! Seems like when I applied for loads of library jobs in the past. They'd remark what a high mark I scored on the test while looking at me with distaste. Just didn't look enough like a respectable 50 year old lady. Eddie I zzard would have been a shoo-in.
ComRes retweeted James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 5m5 minutes ago Our final pre-election poll from @ComResPolls due at 10pm: interesting stuff on voting intention, preferred PM and undecideds #GE2015
I'm sorry to say I have ruled out a comedy vote for the Greens, as they didn't even put anything through the door, so I'm not rewarding that lack of effort.
That leaves Con/LD/UKIP/Lab
Con - I do have a lot of time for Cameron, but he's on the way out, and who knows what the Tories will look like a week from now. LD - I've voted for them in the past, and I think the coalition has done alright, but I don't know, I'm just feeling reluctant for some reason. UKIP - I would like UKIP to do well, on the basis that I think more parties should get more representation, though I don't find that that appealing Lab - They haven't wowed me, and due to geographic specific culture I'm generally a bit more wary of them, but I think Ed will be more competent even in the face of some difficult challenges than many think, and maybe I should back the winning team(nationally at any rate)
why the desire to back the winning team? i'd rather back a loser. then it isn't my fault!
Extraordinarily well organised and resourced targeted Tory operation in Norwich North for Chloe Smith this evening drawing-in volunteers from miles around.
Over in Great Yarmouth, very compelling "You are in a Marginal Constituency and this is what's at stake and this is what you can do about it" leaflet delivered throughout to focus the Blue-Kippers' minds.
The population of the UK has increased by approx 10% in the last few years most of working/ voting age. We know 8 out 10 immigrants vote Labour. And even if they don't vote they can take part in polls. Where are all these folks registered to vote, well I doubt its Kensington and Chelsea. They will buy and rent where the housing is cheapest which is solidly working class areas. Labour constituencies, rock solid Labour constituencies. Labour wasted vote syndrome anybody ?
The population of the UK hasn't increased 10% in the "last few years" it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011. It's mostly been driven by births rather than immigration. Read the 2011 census for the facts.
Most of the immigration that has occurred has taken place from the EU, EU citizens can't vote.
You're pretty much wrong about everything
One of the founding policies of the EU is the ability to live, work AND vote in the place you reside. Or did you change the EU constitution.
The 2011 census was four years ago and the work compiling obviously predates that. In fact if it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011 its not hard to see it going up a further 3% over the next four years.
No, I just read the law and i know who can vote. The fact that you don't means I should probably leave it here, but I'll continue a little bit more.
Has population increased by 10% between 2001 and 2015 ? Yeah, perhaps, no one really knows. I don't think you meant that time period though when you said the "last few years" though.
You painted a picture of a vast flood of working age people, who overwhelmingly vote labour, thus leading to large numbers of wasted votes in safe seats, reducing overall vote efficiency. Nothing you say is supported by the facts.
This is an absolute magnum opus from Number Cruncher Politics and might explain a lot - the market love for the Tories, the seats the leaders are campaigning in.
It also features the delicious line:
If this historical pattern holds, Dan Hodges is about to be proven right
Well done to all those workers from each party who are going to bed tonight with aching bodies. You have given the voters a choice. Democracy can ask no more of you.
Whether the ungrateful bastards vote your guy in is out of your hands now.
I'm sorry to say I have ruled out a comedy vote for the Greens, as they didn't even put anything through the door, so I'm not rewarding that lack of effort.
That leaves Con/LD/UKIP/Lab
Con - I do have a lot of time for Cameron, but he's on the way out, and who knows what the Tories will look like a week from now. LD - I've voted for them in the past, and I think the coalition has done alright, but I don't know, I'm just feeling reluctant for some reason. UKIP - I would like UKIP to do well, on the basis that I think more parties should get more representation, though I don't find that that appealing Lab - They haven't wowed me, and due to geographic specific culture I'm generally a bit more wary of them, but I think Ed will be more competent even in the face of some difficult challenges than many think, and maybe I should back the winning team(nationally at any rate)
why the desire to back the winning team?
I meant to put 'for a change' at the end of that sentence. Although technically I had hoped for Lib-Con coalition last time when I voted LD, Con were still the real 'winners'. This is a safe Tory seat, so I suppose I could vote for anyone but them and no matter who wins nationally it's not my fault in any case.
Comments
The 2011 census was four years ago and the work compiling obviously predates that. In fact if it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011 its not hard to see it going up a further 3% over the next four years.
https://twitter.com/JimForScotland/status/596028926675144704
However I remember the election of October 1964 much more clearly. I made my first political bet that October. I was certain the Labour would win. A college friend said if I was certain (he was reading philosophy) I would obviously accept a bet at 100/1. I felt obliged to say yes. It was £100 to £1 which was a lot of money at that time. I sweated that election. It taught me a lesson about certainty (and betting).
A Lib-Lab pact would be great fun if Clegg were somehow still Labour. He'll say, look, I did stop Labour here, and even though I am in government with them now, that's still better than another Labour MP, right?
If he is still leader and DPM 2 months from now I firmly believe he will be leader forever, as he will have proven himself to be politically immortal.
Conservative - 304
Labour - 250
Lib Dem - 24
SNP - 46
Green - 1
UKIP - 3
Plaid Cymru - 3
Others - 19 (NI + Galloway)
I was the most optimistic for the Conservatives but everyone except one placed the Conservatives as the largest party.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceefax
But Australians can vote in the UK elections.
Conservative: 312
Labour: 245
Lib Dems: 20
SNP: 45
UKIP: 5
NI: 18
PC: 3
Green: 1
Speaker: 1
Logic:
(1) Conservative vote will hold up very strongly motivated by fear of Ed; Blue Kippers will head back to Conservatives to stop him. Also LD switch to Conservative (see 3); I haven't factored in possible "shy Tory" factor in London (i.e. people who say they will vote Labour but worry about the Mansion Tax and then vote Tory).
(2) Labour vote will be soft; no real desire to see Ed as PM; old rallying calls of "Save the NHS" no longer work (Wales, mid-Staffs); postal vote advantage eroded since last time by IRV; strong chance polls not picking up a significant body of WWC who will actually vote UKIP even if they say they tell the pollster they will vote Labour;
(3) LD will do weaker as a lot of their Tory-leaning supporters will be fearful by the possibility the LDs could do a deal with Labour. Conservatives will therefore pick up most of the LD-Tory challenges. Most LD-Labour fights probably lost with some exceptions with tactical voting (I actually think Hornsey and Wood Green will be close);
(4) SNP: no-one can accept a revolution until it actually happens. Labour's brand appears to be now trashed up there and there is no downside to voting SNP for many Scots. Suspect there will not be much Conservative tactical help for Labour;
(5) UKIP - Carswell to win, and Farage; Reckless to lose. However, UKIP to pick up a few others (H&M, Dudley North and the Rotherham / Rother Valley seats plus one or two other possibilities).
Good work, Mr. Mortimer. Your first name isn't Roger, perchance?
THIS IS NOT A DRILL PEOPLE!
I am so geekily excited even though I am still quite torn as to what I want to happen. Can;t see the tories winning by loads (pref #1) so I think I might want labour to sneak it if it's basically a draw as the polls suggest, because they will be handed a pig in a poke.
Can't help feeling that my parents will be the main winners though...they are both polling station clerks in lovely Warwickshire villages at £150 for a day reading some books and sitting on their backsides!
Amazing how quickly it adds up - and how hard it is to find some addresses!
My sympathies on addresses. Sometimes they can seem very odd, with street names changing for no apparent reason and numbers getting missed out.
Hoping for the biggest ever political win tmrw!
My own fault really, re addresses: I offered to go on foot to find the addresses that the first tranche of activists couldn't find....
But then I'm gonna be out of the country for most of the next 6 months and not have to deal with him being in power!
I certainly did get even £100, but it was a little while ago.
Com Res still to cluster (i mean be released)
Mr. Eagles, hope you get some sleep during the day tomorrow. And the site holds up.
I was thinking I might try and spend the night writing.
I'm sorry to say I have ruled out a comedy vote for the Greens, as they didn't even put anything through the door, so I'm not rewarding that lack of effort.
That leaves Con/LD/UKIP/Lab
Con - I do have a lot of time for Cameron, but he's on the way out, and who knows what the Tories will look like a week from now.
LD - I've voted for them in the past, and I think the coalition has done alright, but I don't know, I'm just feeling reluctant for some reason.
UKIP - I would like UKIP to do well, on the basis that I think more parties should get more representation, though I don't find that that appealing
Lab - They haven't wowed me, and due to geographic specific culture I'm generally a bit more wary of them, but I think Ed will be more competent even in the face of some difficult challenges than many think, and maybe I should back the winning team(nationally at any rate)
Will OGH be topping up his SELL bet?
Seems likely they'll head back towards a tie.
Pretty much the messiest possible outcome :-)
Finish around 3, sleep, wake up at 8pm, and then edit PB tomorrow night as well.
What on earth is going on?
Con 35% 285 seats
Lab 32% 258 seats
LD 9% 25 seats
SNP 48% (of Scotland) 55 seats
UKIP 11% 3 seats
Greens 4% 1 seat
Plaid Cymru <1% 3 seats
Speaker 1 seat
Respect 1 seat
DUP 9
SDLP 3
Sinn Fein 5 (not taken)
Independent (Lady Sylvia Hermon) 1
Our final pre-election poll from @ComResPolls due at 10pm: interesting stuff on voting intention, preferred PM and undecideds #GE2015
Sometimes elections people think are too close to call are not actually too close to call - this one might be in terms of the vote share, and even most seats, but the outcome really is not seeming that close, it's just that many people cannot believe that it is not that close, so predict and bet accordingly.
Or I'm an idiot - we'll see tomorrow (or more likely Friday or even Saturday, as I'm at a count then to work on Friday.)
It was the moment of realisation that The Sun had overplayed its hand.
Bye bye Dave
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 5m5 minutes ago
Our final pre-election poll from @ComResPolls due at 10pm: interesting stuff on voting intention, preferred PM and undecideds #GE2015
For a time you could even download BBCBasic programmes. (1980 onwards)
Over in Great Yarmouth, very compelling "You are in a Marginal Constituency and this is what's at stake and this is what you can do about it" leaflet delivered throughout to focus the Blue-Kippers' minds.
#TheEndGame
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Has population increased by 10% between 2001 and 2015 ? Yeah, perhaps, no one really knows. I don't think you meant that time period though when you said the "last few years" though.
You painted a picture of a vast flood of working age people, who overwhelmingly vote labour, thus leading to large numbers of wasted votes in safe seats, reducing overall vote efficiency. Nothing you say is supported by the facts.
You got 1,600 people there?
It also features the delicious line:
If this historical pattern holds, Dan Hodges is about to be proven right
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/05/shy-tory-factor-2015.html/
Unfortunately I think his site may be struggling under weight of traffic.
Well done to all those workers from each party who are going to bed tonight with aching bodies. You have given the voters a choice. Democracy can ask no more of you.
Whether the ungrateful bastards vote your guy in is out of your hands now.
https://www.facebook.com/Channel4News/videos/10152910536041939/
Lab most seat tightening.
Clearly both cant be right
Christian Guy @ChristianGuy_ ·
Cheapest Barcelona season ticket: £103
Cheapest Shrewsbury Town season ticket: £250
What a stupid statement. tomorrow is the main day. God are the Tories that useless