What a stupid statement. tomorrow is the main day. God are the Tories that useless
And what part of "the campaign is over" is wrong? That you are one of a million Labour workers armed with cattle prods to try and get your reluctant vote out tomorrow for Ed doesn't contradict that.
They can if Cameron manages to stay PM long enough to unlock the Betfair market, but not actually long enough. I increasingly think the price to look iast is Ed as next PM after Cameron, on the basis that has to happen by Summer or not at all - he's not staying on to fight 2020 in any realistic world, is he, and since Cameron has said he'll go before 2020, Ed wouldn't be 'next'.
If you don't agree with that, there's huge arbitrage - back Ed PM after election at 2.12, Lay Ed next PM after Cameron 1.69.
The population of the UK has increased by approx 10% in the last few years most of working/ voting age. We know 8 out 10 immigrants vote Labour. And even if they don't vote they can take part in polls. Where are all these folks registered to vote, well I doubt its Kensington and Chelsea. They will buy and rent where the housing is cheapest which is solidly working class areas. Labour constituencies, rock solid Labour constituencies. Labour wasted vote syndrome anybody ?
The population of the UK hasn't increased 10% in the "last few years" it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011. It's mostly been driven by births rather than immigration. Read the 2011 census for the facts.
Most of the immigration that has occurred has taken place from the EU, EU citizens can't vote.
You're pretty much wrong about everything
One of the founding policies of the EU is the ability to live, work AND vote in the place you reside. Or did you change the EU constitution.
The 2011 census was four years ago and the work compiling obviously predates that. In fact if it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011 its not hard to see it going up a further 3% over the next four years.
No, I just read the law and i know who can vote. The fact that you don't means I should probably leave it here, but I'll continue a little bit more.
Has population increased by 10% between 2001 and 2015 ? Yeah, perhaps, no one really knows. I don't think you meant that time period though when you said the "last few years" though.
You painted a picture of a vast flood of working age people, who overwhelmingly vote labour, thus leading to large numbers of wasted votes in safe seats, reducing overall vote efficiency. Nothing you say is supported by the facts.
Google estimated UK pooulation 2015. Can't be positively proven as our politicians diberatley doubt count
Well done to all those workers from each party who are going to bed tonight with aching bodies. You have given the voters a choice. Democracy can ask no more of you.
Whether the ungrateful bastards vote your guy in is out of your hands now.
MM ..... do you have a final prediction for Torbay, caveated or otherwise?
Christian Guy @ChristianGuy_ · Cheapest Barcelona season ticket: £103 Cheapest Shrewsbury Town season ticket: £250
??? Can that be right? £103? That's about a fiver a game
It's £12 to watch Bishops Stortford, and frankly if they paid me £12 to stay until the end it would be overpriced...
That's about right from when I was living in Barcelona. They've 90k seats to fill, although most ticket holders only go to the big games and sell their tickets the rest of the time. Note also that the season ticket includes all cup games too, these are always extra at English clubs. I paid 50Euros to watch them play Liverpool in the European cup in 2002.
@Kle all the best making your choice. I'm a Conservative so biased here, but I would say that I would vote for who you want to win (locally or nationally) and not base your decision on who you think might win or not overall, especially on a set of opinion polls.
Extraordinarily well organised and resourced targeted Tory operation in Norwich North for Chloe Smith this evening drawing-in volunteers from miles around.
Over in Great Yarmouth, very compelling "You are in a Marginal Constituency and this is what's at stake and this is what you can do about it" leaflet delivered throughout to focus the Blue-Kippers' minds.
#TheEndGame
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Any sense of what's happening in Norwich South (gossip will do)?
This is an absolute magnum opus from Number Cruncher Politics and might explain a lot - the market love for the Tories, the seats the leaders are campaigning in.
It also features the delicious line:
If this historical pattern holds, Dan Hodges is about to be proven right
Mr. Eagles, adrenaline and tequila will keep you going.
I'm just obsessed about the pandas bet and if Reckless were to lose
I will be working my nuts off tomorrow for Mark to keep R&S and your hate will drive me on when I am flagging!
I don't hate him.
No I'm sure you don't really . Him and his wife Catriona are actually really nice people if you ever meet get the chance to meet them.
UKIP are a party loaded with racists.. .. the news almost daily tells us this...
Well I'm not one and have never encountered any racism amongst the people I have met in the Party. if someone accused me of that openly and published it I would sue them.
No idea of the result. All I will say is that it is remarkable that ALL the pollsters show pretty much a tie..
That's what perplexes me, the polls are almost too uniform. Shouldn't there be more variation? Is is really possible that all the pollsters have become very good at weighting and adjusting their data to tease out the truth, despite this being a considerably more complex general election than normal?
David Clegg @davieclegg 3m3 minutes ago Just finished writing up the details of a mammoth +1600 sample @Survation Scotland poll for tomorrow's Daily Record. Details later.
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 21s22 seconds ago 25% of those likely to vote are undecided or may change their mind before tomorrow: @ComResPolls for @DailyMailUK
Anyone know how this compares to previous elections?
Wow, that's be a clustef*ck of a result, Tory+LD exactly equally to Labour+SNP+PC. Greens+SDLP would just about nudge the left ahead. UKIP adding some to the right.
Could Clegg work in a administration that relied on Kipper votes ? Maybe, could the bulk of his party? less certain.
If that result came to pass, I'd expect to see a Labour + LD government in power and daring the SNP to vote them out of office.
Seems to me that the PastVoteWeighting is boosting the UKIP total in the polls more than is justified. Just because someone voted UKIP in the Euro's doesn;t mean that translates to the GE.
Fact to remember: In most recent Ashcroft in #GreatYarmouth, for example, the raw data [over 1000 respondents] saw Tory Brandon Lewis was 7pts ahead of Labour. After adjusting for Past Vote Weighting from the Kippers, Lewis was deducted 5pts leaving him just 2 ahead of Labour. But Labour wasn't deducted any points at all.
That's bonkers!
Last year in the Council elections, where they elect in thirds, 13 seats were up for grabs. UKIP scooped 10 of them on the back of the EU elections. But the 10 were taken equally from Cons [5] and Labour [5]. So why did the Tories get penalised and not Labour in this Bellwether seat?
Undoubtedly people have voted UKIP in the [recent] past in relatively inconsequential elections but there's no way the extent of that support is mirrored in the General Election polling. My observable doorstep experience is that UKIP support is evaporating in this seaside borough. Helped by a 48% reduction in local unemployment.
But the Past Vote Weighting wrt UKIP seems to have several problems 1 It treats a previous UKIP vote in the council or Euro elections equally with the General Election - a heroic assumption 2 The experience in the marginal seat polling is that the past-vote-weighting is deducted exclusively from the Tory with none from Labour. Just not credible
So my instinct from all this is that UKIP has been methodologically overstated based on recent voting in council areas where they elect in thirds. And that over-statement has been disproportionately in favour Labour, not the Tories for reasons I can't understand.
That's what'll come out of the wash-up when the pollsters work out what went wrong.
BTW, had a nice chat with fmr senior exec of IpsosMori up here in bandit country last week. Lots of stories. NSFW.
The population of the UK has increased by approx 10% in the last few years most of working/ voting age. We know 8 out 10 immigrants vote Labour. And even if they don't vote they can take part in polls. Where are all these folks registered to vote, well I doubt its Kensington and Chelsea. They will buy and rent where the housing is cheapest which is solidly working class areas. Labour constituencies, rock solid Labour constituencies. Labour wasted vote syndrome anybody ?
The population of the UK hasn't increased 10% in the "last few years" it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011. It's mostly been driven by births rather than immigration. Read the 2011 census for the facts.
Most of the immigration that has occurred has taken place from the EU, EU citizens can't vote.
You're pretty much wrong about everything
One of the founding policies of the EU is the ability to live, work AND vote in the place you reside. Or did you change the EU constitution.
The 2011 census was four years ago and the work compiling obviously predates that. In fact if it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011 its not hard to see it going up a further 3% over the next four years.
Unfortunately you are desperately wrong about everything even after your wrongness has been pointed out plainly to you. You cannot vote in national elections as a EU citizen. Tomorrow is a national election and I find it shocking that you can be so casual in your ignorance and in your generalities about population. You seem to think that the census relates to a collection of years before 2011 and that '2011' merely relates to its publication. In fact it refers to one day in 2011 and data is published over a period 'after' that! Sadly I am increasingly drawn to the view that your opinions are just another example of the virtual reality world that people live in these days.
It is too uniform as polling goes, either they are all correct or there has been a mighty fuck up. I think its the latter but we shall see.. my cheque to Mr Palmer is as yet unsigned and I hope it remains so. A Labour Govt would be a disaster , but the voters get what they deserve.
Have we got a final prediction from those polling models that were showing 98% Tory most seats, 80% Tory majority? It's just that Tory swingback is feeling all lonely in Room 101.
Something smells fishy with the polling numbers. A week ago there was a spread from Tory +6 to Labour +2, a range of 9. Now it seems that virtually every poll spreads from Tory +1 to Tie, a range of 2.
Not really. People forget now but the '35% strategy' was about winning a majority. Incidentally has any party strategy ever been more discussed without ever being confirmed as real? I'm not sure I've seen a single sympathetic person to Miliband mention it.
The real poll starts in nine hours and will say what it says. It will be fascinating and I think that we are all (and the Pollsters too) in uncharted waters.
To everyone on PB who is taking an active part in these elections, good luck to you all and remember that while there is much that divides us, there is more that unites us and at least we all care enough to get involved!
We shall see who has egg on their faces very soon now!
Its clear UNS will be unreliable tomorrow. This comes down the the ground war in the marginals it could go either way. Peter kellner say tories largest party. Hes sticking his neck out there .i hope jack W is right and EMWNBPM
Something smells fishy with the polling numbers. A week ago there was a spread from Tory +6 to Labour +2, a range of 9. Now it seems that virtually every poll spreads from Tory +1 to Tie, a range of 2.
Evening all, I've received an email from Labour asking me to help the GOTV operation in my nearest marginal. A legacy from when I joined for £1 to help elect Ed as leader. According to the email, this happens to be Stevenage. Enfield North is only about 0.7 of a mile away. Is Enfield North not considered a marginal anymore?
Mr. Eagles, adrenaline and tequila will keep you going.
I'm just obsessed about the pandas bet and if Reckless were to lose
I will be working my nuts off tomorrow for Mark to keep R&S and your hate will drive me on when I am flagging!
I don't hate him.
No I'm sure you don't really . Him and his wife Catriona are actually really nice people if you ever meet get the chance to meet them.
UKIP are a party loaded with racists.. .. the news almost daily tells us this...
Well I'm not one and have never encountered any racism amongst the people I have met in the Party. if someone accused me of that openly and published it I would sue them.
The news pretty well only gives UKIP centre billing when the hacks sense a scandal. Hundreds of Labour and Conservative councillors are regularly up in front of the beaks for fraud, viewing child pornography etc etc - but they aren't UKIP.
No polls are showing a situation where Cameron can be PM, so Tories have to rely on them all being wrong, and by quite a bit as well. If that is the case, that is simply remarkable - that not some, but all of them would be so wrong.
But the pollsters are aware of the danger of calling it so wrong, much more so than 1992 surely, so I think they will have prepared well enough to err on the side of caution without going too far and ignoring/missing what is really happening.
But now I must get an early night in preparation for the being awake for 36+hours, barring power naps if possible, so a good night.
Tories, do not worry - Ed will not be a total disaster, and there will be opportunities to prepare well for the next chance.
Labour - It'll be a tough government to be in charge of, but I hope you rise to the challenge.
LDs - Hang in there I guess.
UKIP - The fight for 2020 begins now, you can build on this.
Something smells fishy with the polling numbers. A week ago there was a spread from Tory +6 to Labour +2, a range of 9. Now it seems that virtually every poll spreads from Tory +1 to Tie, a range of 2.
Comments
It's £12 to watch Bishops Stortford, and frankly if they paid me £12 to stay until the end it would be overpriced...
Perhaps shortly there will be an election where his majority will increase?
I think if anything the pollsters , or most of them are going to end up with egg on their face.
Whatever the outcome, its going to end up the serious mess that the politicians deserve.
If you don't agree with that, there's huge arbitrage - back Ed PM after election at 2.12, Lay Ed next PM after Cameron 1.69.
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/former-agent-shamed-labour-mp-8153294
24 hours until the exit poll - and the start of the biggest ever "what went so wrong?" autopsy in political polling......
But we do appreciate it!
1) Ed becomes is elected a PM
2) Dan Hodges qualifies for a streak down whitehall
Just finished writing up the details of a mammoth +1600 sample @Survation Scotland poll for tomorrow's Daily Record. Details later.
Survation for Mirror has
Lab 33, Con 33, LD 9, UKIP 16, SNP 5
CON - 35% (-)
LAB - 34% (+2)
UKIP - 12% (-2)
LDEM - 9% (-)
GRN - 4% (-)
https://twitter.com/britainelects
Wonder how Con tactical voters in Sheff Hallam will feel if Cleggy gets into bed with Miliband?!
25% of those likely to vote are undecided or may change their mind before tomorrow: @ComResPolls for @DailyMailUK
Anyone know how this compares to previous elections?
Polls say EICIPM
Can't believe I got on Labour most seats at 5.3 earlier.
Could Clegg work in a administration that relied on Kipper votes ? Maybe, could the bulk of his party? less certain.
If that result came to pass, I'd expect to see a Labour + LD government in power and daring the SNP to vote them out of office.
There's no way we don't get a train wreck
Tie to the first decimal place?
Someone is taking the p*** here.
Fact to remember: In most recent Ashcroft in #GreatYarmouth, for example, the raw data [over 1000 respondents] saw Tory Brandon Lewis was 7pts ahead of Labour. After adjusting for Past Vote Weighting from the Kippers, Lewis was deducted 5pts leaving him just 2 ahead of Labour. But Labour wasn't deducted any points at all.
That's bonkers!
Last year in the Council elections, where they elect in thirds, 13 seats were up for grabs. UKIP scooped 10 of them on the back of the EU elections. But the 10 were taken equally from Cons [5] and Labour [5]. So why did the Tories get penalised and not Labour in this Bellwether seat?
Undoubtedly people have voted UKIP in the [recent] past in relatively inconsequential elections but there's no way the extent of that support is mirrored in the General Election polling. My observable doorstep experience is that UKIP support is evaporating in this seaside borough. Helped by a 48% reduction in local unemployment.
But the Past Vote Weighting wrt UKIP seems to have several problems
1 It treats a previous UKIP vote in the council or Euro elections equally with the General Election - a heroic assumption
2 The experience in the marginal seat polling is that the past-vote-weighting is deducted exclusively from the Tory with none from Labour. Just not credible
So my instinct from all this is that UKIP has been methodologically overstated based on recent voting in council areas where they elect in thirds. And that over-statement has been disproportionately in favour Labour, not the Tories for reasons I can't understand.
That's what'll come out of the wash-up when the pollsters work out what went wrong.
BTW, had a nice chat with fmr senior exec of IpsosMori up here in bandit country last week. Lots of stories. NSFW.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
One failure I can point to in the Tory campaign is failing to draw attention to:
1) Mid-staffs
2) PFI contracts
Both fit into the 'competence' theme whilst totally undermining the 'we're good at the NHS stuff' that Labour carp on about.
I agree they have struggled with the new landscape (and might be facing a mid 90s style reckoning, one way or another). But "played a game"?
1) Labour win - definitely opposes Tories
2) Clegg Wins - might support Tories.
Once you postulate that the Tories can't win it is clear that 2 is better - even if it turns out that the LDs do go over to the dark side.
You seem to think that the census relates to a collection of years before 2011 and that '2011' merely relates to its publication. In fact it refers to one day in 2011 and data is published over a period 'after' that!
Sadly I am increasingly drawn to the view that your opinions are just another example of the virtual reality world that people live in these days.
SNP - 48% (-1)
LAB - 27% (+1)
CON - 14% (-1)
LDEM - 7% (-)
A Labour Govt would be a disaster , but the voters get what they deserve.
Cons+LD+DUP = 324 in his numbers.
If that's not TCTC then I don't know what is.
EXCL: Final YouGov/Sun poll for #GE2015 - Tories have 18 point lead on managing the economy, 40% to 22% http://www.sunnation.co.uk/every-vote-counts-as-major-sun-poll-shows-labour-and-tories-tied/ …
Smells fishy.
insaaane
.i hope jack W is right and EMWNBPM
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/596059096790540288
I've received an email from Labour asking me to help the GOTV operation in my nearest marginal. A legacy from when I joined for £1 to help elect Ed as leader.
According to the email, this happens to be Stevenage.
Enfield North is only about 0.7 of a mile away. Is Enfield North not considered a marginal anymore?
But the pollsters are aware of the danger of calling it so wrong, much more so than 1992 surely, so I think they will have prepared well enough to err on the side of caution without going too far and ignoring/missing what is really happening.
But now I must get an early night in preparation for the being awake for 36+hours, barring power naps if possible, so a good night.
Tories, do not worry - Ed will not be a total disaster, and there will be opportunities to prepare well for the next chance.
Labour - It'll be a tough government to be in charge of, but I hope you rise to the challenge.
LDs - Hang in there I guess.
UKIP - The fight for 2020 begins now, you can build on this.
Greens - Nice try
SNP - Don't get cocky
PC - No one cares
NI - We care, but I'm staying out of it.
Let the bloodbath commence.
11 pollsters - and Panelbase are the only ones with a Labour lead?
Seems too neat. Too convenient.
The election the press jumped the shark.