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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on this final day

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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Owls, Labour wins the election, Balls stabs Miliband, Cameron joins Labour and stays PM, leading a Lab-SNP coalition!
  • Mr. Eagles, adrenaline and tequila will keep you going.

    I'm just obsessed about the pandas bet and if Reckless were to lose
    I will be working my nuts off tomorrow for Mark to keep R&S and your hate will drive me on when I am flagging!
    I don't hate him.
    No I'm sure you don't really . Him and his wife Catriona are actually really nice people if you ever meet get the chance to meet them.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    I must admit I was wrong in the 2011census the population. Was56 mill the estimate now is 64.million. More than ten per cent.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    IOS said:

    MarqueeMark

    What a stupid statement. tomorrow is the main day. God are the Tories that useless

    Not in Torbay. Most of the buggers have already voted!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    If Cameron hangs on and presents a Queens Speech will that qualify him to win the Betfair PM market - even if he loses the Queens Speech vote?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. IOS, that was quite uncalled for. Don't be such a tinker.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911

    On the brilliant messi -

    Christian Guy ‏@ChristianGuy_ ·
    Cheapest Barcelona season ticket: £103
    Cheapest Shrewsbury Town season ticket: £250

    ??? Can that be right? £103? That's about a fiver a game

    It's £12 to watch Bishops Stortford, and frankly if they paid me £12 to stay until the end it would be overpriced...
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    MikeL said:

    Cameron now favourite again for next PM.

    What on earth is going on?


    Perhaps shortly there will be an election where his majority will increase?

    :sunglasses:
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    No idea of the result. All I will say is that it is remarkable that ALL the pollsters show pretty much a tie..

    I think if anything the pollsters , or most of them are going to end up with egg on their face.

    Whatever the outcome, its going to end up the serious mess that the politicians deserve.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    IOS said:

    MarqueeMark

    What a stupid statement. tomorrow is the main day. God are the Tories that useless

    And what part of "the campaign is over" is wrong? That you are one of a million Labour workers armed with cattle prods to try and get your reluctant vote out tomorrow for Ed doesn't contradict that.
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455

    Cameron being PM tightening on Betfair

    Lab most seat tightening.

    Clearly both cant be right

    They can if Cameron manages to stay PM long enough to unlock the Betfair market, but not actually long enough. I increasingly think the price to look iast is Ed as next PM after Cameron, on the basis that has to happen by Summer or not at all - he's not staying on to fight 2020 in any realistic world, is he, and since Cameron has said he'll go before 2020, Ed wouldn't be 'next'.

    If you don't agree with that, there's huge arbitrage - back Ed PM after election at 2.12, Lay Ed next PM after Cameron 1.69.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454

    NoEasyDay said:

    NoEasyDay said:


    The population of the UK has increased by approx 10% in the last few years most of working/ voting age. We know 8 out 10 immigrants vote Labour. And even if they don't vote they can take part in polls. Where are all these folks registered to vote, well I doubt its Kensington and Chelsea. They will buy and rent where the housing is cheapest which is solidly working class areas. Labour constituencies, rock solid Labour constituencies. Labour wasted vote syndrome anybody ?

    The population of the UK hasn't increased 10% in the "last few years" it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011. It's mostly been driven by births rather than immigration. Read the 2011 census for the facts.

    Most of the immigration that has occurred has taken place from the EU, EU citizens can't vote.

    You're pretty much wrong about everything
    One of the founding policies of the EU is the ability to live, work AND vote in the place you reside. Or did you change the EU constitution.

    The 2011 census was four years ago and the work compiling obviously predates that. In fact if it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011 its not hard to see it going up a further 3% over the next four years.
    No, I just read the law and i know who can vote. The fact that you don't means I should probably leave it here, but I'll continue a little bit more.

    Has population increased by 10% between 2001 and 2015 ? Yeah, perhaps, no one really knows. I don't think you meant that time period though when you said the "last few years" though.

    You painted a picture of a vast flood of working age people, who overwhelmingly vote labour, thus leading to large numbers of wasted votes in safe seats, reducing overall vote efficiency. Nothing you say is supported by the facts.
    Google estimated UK pooulation 2015. Can't be positively proven as our politicians diberatley doubt count
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Mr. Eagles, adrenaline and tequila will keep you going.

    I'm just obsessed about the pandas bet and if Reckless were to lose
    I will be working my nuts off tomorrow for Mark to keep R&S and your hate will drive me on when I am flagging!
    I don't hate him.
    No I'm sure you don't really . Him and his wife Catriona are actually really nice people if you ever meet get the chance to meet them.
    UKIP are a party loaded with racists.. .. the news almost daily tells us this...
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    When you lose by what ammounts to less than a couple of thousand votes I will remind you that it didnt matter.
  • The campaign is over.

    Well done to all those workers from each party who are going to bed tonight with aching bodies. You have given the voters a choice. Democracy can ask no more of you.

    Whether the ungrateful bastards vote your guy in is out of your hands now.

    MM ..... do you have a final prediction for Torbay, caveated or otherwise?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    edited May 2015

    On the brilliant messi -

    Christian Guy ‏@ChristianGuy_ ·
    Cheapest Barcelona season ticket: £103
    Cheapest Shrewsbury Town season ticket: £250

    ??? Can that be right? £103? That's about a fiver a game

    It's £12 to watch Bishops Stortford, and frankly if they paid me £12 to stay until the end it would be overpriced...
    That's about right from when I was living in Barcelona. They've 90k seats to fill, although most ticket holders only go to the big games and sell their tickets the rest of the time. Note also that the season ticket includes all cup games too, these are always extra at English clubs. I paid 50Euros to watch them play Liverpool in the European cup in 2002.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Final ComRes AND final Survation coming down the runway at 10.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    Tie now counts as good Conservative result for early YouGov tweet
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    @Kle all the best making your choice. I'm a Conservative so biased here, but I would say that I would vote for who you want to win (locally or nationally) and not base your decision on who you think might win or not overall, especially on a set of opinion polls.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    bunnco said:

    Extraordinarily well organised and resourced targeted Tory operation in Norwich North for Chloe Smith this evening drawing-in volunteers from miles around.

    Over in Great Yarmouth, very compelling "You are in a Marginal Constituency and this is what's at stake and this is what you can do about it" leaflet delivered throughout to focus the Blue-Kippers' minds.

    #TheEndGame

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot

    Any sense of what's happening in Norwich South (gossip will do)?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Mr. Eagles, adrenaline and tequila will keep you going.

    I'm just obsessed about the pandas bet and if Reckless were to lose
    I will be working my nuts off tomorrow for Mark to keep R&S and your hate will drive me on when I am flagging!
    I don't hate him.
    No I'm sure you don't really . Him and his wife Catriona are actually really nice people if you ever meet get the chance to meet them.
    UKIP are a party loaded with racists.. .. the news almost daily tells us this...
    Why, has Phil Woolas joined?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    This is an absolute magnum opus from Number Cruncher Politics and might explain a lot - the market love for the Tories, the seats the leaders are campaigning in.

    It also features the delicious line:

    If this historical pattern holds, Dan Hodges is about to be proven right

    http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/05/shy-tory-factor-2015.html/

    Unfortunately I think his site may be struggling under weight of traffic.

    Seconded, site working fine for me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    So tell is ComRes and Survation, is it a Labour plurality and EICIPM, or a Con plurality and EICIPM.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    NoEasyDay said:

    I must admit I was wrong in the 2011census the population. Was56 mill the estimate now is 64.million. More than ten per cent.

    The population of the UK in 2011 was 63 million you are confusing England and UK figures
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Mr. Eagles, adrenaline and tequila will keep you going.

    I'm just obsessed about the pandas bet and if Reckless were to lose
    I will be working my nuts off tomorrow for Mark to keep R&S and your hate will drive me on when I am flagging!
    I don't hate him.
    No I'm sure you don't really . Him and his wife Catriona are actually really nice people if you ever meet get the chance to meet them.
    UKIP are a party loaded with racists.. .. the news almost daily tells us this...
    Why, has Phil Woolas joined?
    His agent has:

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/former-agent-shamed-labour-mp-8153294
  • Mr. Eagles, adrenaline and tequila will keep you going.

    I'm just obsessed about the pandas bet and if Reckless were to lose
    I will be working my nuts off tomorrow for Mark to keep R&S and your hate will drive me on when I am flagging!
    I don't hate him.
    No I'm sure you don't really . Him and his wife Catriona are actually really nice people if you ever meet get the chance to meet them.
    UKIP are a party loaded with racists.. .. the news almost daily tells us this...
    Well I'm not one and have never encountered any racism amongst the people I have met in the Party. if someone accused me of that openly and published it I would sue them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    The polls seem to have clustered around the broken YouGov. Safety in numbers.

    24 hours until the exit poll - and the start of the biggest ever "what went so wrong?" autopsy in political polling......
  • glwglw Posts: 9,956

    No idea of the result. All I will say is that it is remarkable that ALL the pollsters show pretty much a tie..

    That's what perplexes me, the polls are almost too uniform. Shouldn't there be more variation? Is is really possible that all the pollsters have become very good at weighting and adjusting their data to tease out the truth, despite this being a considerably more complex general election than normal?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653

    Cameron being PM tightening on Betfair

    Lab most seat tightening.

    Clearly both cant be right

    Only SNP downfall could explain both trends.
  • IOS said:

    Ahh didums Republic

    Mr. Mortimer, it's good to dabble occasionally in modern history.

    Mr. Eagles, hope you get some sleep during the day tomorrow. And the site holds up.

    I was thinking I might try and spend the night writing.

    I have to be up at 4am tomorrow, to Get out the Vote in various bits of West Yorkshire.

    Finish around 3, sleep, wake up at 8pm, and then edit PB tomorrow night as well.
    We may not always shoe it,

    But we do appreciate it!


  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Things that are going to happen tomorrow:

    1) Ed becomes is elected a PM

    2) Dan Hodges qualifies for a streak down whitehall
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    IOS said:

    When you lose by what ammounts to less than a couple of thousand votes I will remind you that it didnt matter.

    Unless the majority is 2 or less it does not matter whether you voted or not
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Looks like no EU referendum then - PM Ed won't be having one.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 3m3 minutes ago
    Just finished writing up the details of a mammoth +1600 sample @Survation Scotland poll for tomorrow's Daily Record. Details later.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Final Survation tied Lab 33, Con 33, LD 9, UKIP 16, SNP 5 https://twitter.com/JBeattieMirror
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB ·
    Survation for Mirror has
    Lab 33, Con 33, LD 9, UKIP 16, SNP 5

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Miliband 35% strategy looking good.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    All polls now showing Ed as PM.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    Comres Tories just ahead
    CON - 35% (-)
    LAB - 34% (+2)
    UKIP - 12% (-2)
    LDEM - 9% (-)
    GRN - 4% (-)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    These pollsters have all played a game
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    The trend is clear: it's level pegging.

    Wonder how Con tactical voters in Sheff Hallam will feel if Cleggy gets into bed with Miliband?!
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Miliband 35% strategy looking good.

    I'm loving it!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    IOS said:

    Things that are going to happen tomorrow:

    1) Ed becomes is elected a PM

    2) Dan Hodges qualifies for a streak down whitehall

    Not tomorrow and maybe not later either
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 21s22 seconds ago
    25% of those likely to vote are undecided or may change their mind before tomorrow: @ComResPolls for @DailyMailUK


    Anyone know how this compares to previous elections?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Kelner calls it for Dave

    Polls say EICIPM



  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    Fascinating that each time the Tories have got a lead in the polls Labour have dragged it back.

    Can't believe I got on Labour most seats at 5.3 earlier.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    HYUFD said:

    Final Survation tied Lab 33, Con 33, LD 9, UKIP 16, SNP 5 https://twitter.com/JBeattieMirror

    Presumably slightly better for the Tories - within MOE - as Survation usually have Labour ahead.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Kelner calls it for Dave

    Polls say EICIPM

    So he's covered either way really. 'I should have trusted my polling' vs 'Clearly I need to adjust my polling as I knew better'.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    edited May 2015
    Wow, that's be a clustef*ck of a result, Tory+LD exactly equally to Labour+SNP+PC. Greens+SDLP would just about nudge the left ahead. UKIP adding some to the right.

    Could Clegg work in a administration that relied on Kipper votes ? Maybe, could the bulk of his party? less certain.

    If that result came to pass, I'd expect to see a Labour + LD government in power and daring the SNP to vote them out of office.

    There's no way we don't get a train wreck
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141

    Kelner calls it for Dave

    Polls say EICIPM



    If Kelner actually thinks it's tied, he's saying that there's a good chance of Lab most votes, Con most seats.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    Fascinating that each time the Tories have got a lead in the polls Labour have dragged it back.

    Can't believe I got on Labour most seats at 5.3 earlier.

    You can get 4/1 in the bookies
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Kelner calls it for Dave

    Polls say EICIPM



    Isn't Kelner another PB Hodge Lefty bogeyman as well?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    If that was the real result that would be hugely embarrassing for both Tories and Labour.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2015



    If you don't agree with that, there's huge arbitrage - back Ed PM after election at 2.12, Lay Ed next PM after Cameron 1.69.

    The problem being you could have to wait 5 years to get paid out.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Tie to the first decimal place?

    Someone is taking the p*** here.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Well Survation and Panelbase are out on a limb with their UKIP figures compared to other pollsters
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    edited May 2015
    Seems to me that the PastVoteWeighting is boosting the UKIP total in the polls more than is justified. Just because someone voted UKIP in the Euro's doesn;t mean that translates to the GE.

    Fact to remember: In most recent Ashcroft in #GreatYarmouth, for example, the raw data [over 1000 respondents] saw Tory Brandon Lewis was 7pts ahead of Labour. After adjusting for Past Vote Weighting from the Kippers, Lewis was deducted 5pts leaving him just 2 ahead of Labour. But Labour wasn't deducted any points at all.

    That's bonkers!

    Last year in the Council elections, where they elect in thirds, 13 seats were up for grabs. UKIP scooped 10 of them on the back of the EU elections. But the 10 were taken equally from Cons [5] and Labour [5]. So why did the Tories get penalised and not Labour in this Bellwether seat?

    Undoubtedly people have voted UKIP in the [recent] past in relatively inconsequential elections but there's no way the extent of that support is mirrored in the General Election polling. My observable doorstep experience is that UKIP support is evaporating in this seaside borough. Helped by a 48% reduction in local unemployment.

    But the Past Vote Weighting wrt UKIP seems to have several problems
    1 It treats a previous UKIP vote in the council or Euro elections equally with the General Election - a heroic assumption
    2 The experience in the marginal seat polling is that the past-vote-weighting is deducted exclusively from the Tory with none from Labour. Just not credible

    So my instinct from all this is that UKIP has been methodologically overstated based on recent voting in council areas where they elect in thirds. And that over-statement has been disproportionately in favour Labour, not the Tories for reasons I can't understand.

    That's what'll come out of the wash-up when the pollsters work out what went wrong.

    BTW, had a nice chat with fmr senior exec of IpsosMori up here in bandit country last week. Lots of stories. NSFW.


    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    I suppose the autopsy begins here whatever the result, and I still hope for a Tory maj.

    One failure I can point to in the Tory campaign is failing to draw attention to:

    1) Mid-staffs
    2) PFI contracts

    Both fit into the 'competence' theme whilst totally undermining the 'we're good at the NHS stuff' that Labour carp on about.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,247
    Hmm. While the Lab and Con scores are congregating, there is still quite a bit of variance on UKIP. 11% for ICM, 16% for Survation
  • LaurusLaurus Posts: 10
    currystar said:

    These pollsters have all played a game

    Woah.

    I agree they have struggled with the new landscape (and might be facing a mid 90s style reckoning, one way or another). But "played a game"?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917


    Tie to the first decimal place?

    Someone is taking the p*** here.

    Farcical isn't it?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    The trend is clear: it's level pegging.

    Wonder how Con tactical voters in Sheff Hallam will feel if Cleggy gets into bed with Miliband?!
    There are two options in Sheff Hallam

    1) Labour win - definitely opposes Tories
    2) Clegg Wins - might support Tories.

    Once you postulate that the Tories can't win it is clear that 2 is better - even if it turns out that the LDs do go over to the dark side.
  • FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    NoEasyDay said:

    NoEasyDay said:


    The population of the UK has increased by approx 10% in the last few years most of working/ voting age. We know 8 out 10 immigrants vote Labour. And even if they don't vote they can take part in polls. Where are all these folks registered to vote, well I doubt its Kensington and Chelsea. They will buy and rent where the housing is cheapest which is solidly working class areas. Labour constituencies, rock solid Labour constituencies. Labour wasted vote syndrome anybody ?

    The population of the UK hasn't increased 10% in the "last few years" it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011. It's mostly been driven by births rather than immigration. Read the 2011 census for the facts.

    Most of the immigration that has occurred has taken place from the EU, EU citizens can't vote.

    You're pretty much wrong about everything
    One of the founding policies of the EU is the ability to live, work AND vote in the place you reside. Or did you change the EU constitution.

    The 2011 census was four years ago and the work compiling obviously predates that. In fact if it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011 its not hard to see it going up a further 3% over the next four years.
    Unfortunately you are desperately wrong about everything even after your wrongness has been pointed out plainly to you. You cannot vote in national elections as a EU citizen. Tomorrow is a national election and I find it shocking that you can be so casual in your ignorance and in your generalities about population.
    You seem to think that the census relates to a collection of years before 2011 and that '2011' merely relates to its publication. In fact it refers to one day in 2011 and data is published over a period 'after' that!
    Sadly I am increasingly drawn to the view that your opinions are just another example of the virtual reality world that people live in these days.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    weejonnie Indeed a better poll for Tories there
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Latest Scottish Westminster poll (YouGov):
    SNP - 48% (-1)
    LAB - 27% (+1)
    CON - 14% (-1)
    LDEM - 7% (-)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    FU Ed has not reached 35% in any of these final polls, the Tories have with Comres
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    currystar said:

    These pollsters have all played a game

    It is too uniform as polling goes, either they are all correct or there has been a mighty fuck up. I think its the latter but we shall see.. my cheque to Mr Palmer is as yet unsigned and I hope it remains so.
    A Labour Govt would be a disaster , but the voters get what they deserve.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    Kelner calls it for Dave

    Polls say EICIPM



    Does he call it for Dave ?

    Cons+LD+DUP = 324 in his numbers.

    If that's not TCTC then I don't know what is.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn ·
    EXCL: Final YouGov/Sun poll for #GE2015 - Tories have 18 point lead on managing the economy, 40% to 22% http://www.sunnation.co.uk/every-vote-counts-as-major-sun-poll-shows-labour-and-tories-tied/

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Have we got a final prediction from those polling models that were showing 98% Tory most seats, 80% Tory majority? It's just that Tory swingback is feeling all lonely in Room 101.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    chestnut said:

    Latest Scottish Westminster poll (YouGov):
    SNP - 48% (-1)
    LAB - 27% (+1)
    CON - 14% (-1)
    LDEM - 7% (-)

    The day the polls turned
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Laurus said:

    currystar said:

    These pollsters have all played a game

    Woah.

    I agree they have struggled with the new landscape (and might be facing a mid 90s style reckoning, one way or another). But "played a game"?
    They have all produced a final poll which is middle of the road. With polling moe it's highly unlikely
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2015
    Something smells fishy with the polling numbers. A week ago there was a spread from Tory +6 to Labour +2, a range of 9. Now it seems that virtually every poll spreads from Tory +1 to Tie, a range of 2.

    Smells fishy.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929

    Miliband 35% strategy looking good.

    Not really. People forget now but the '35% strategy' was about winning a majority. Incidentally has any party strategy ever been more discussed without ever being confirmed as real? I'm not sure I've seen a single sympathetic person to Miliband mention it.
  • The real poll starts in nine hours and will say what it says. It will be fascinating and I think that we are all (and the Pollsters too) in uncharted waters.

    To everyone on PB who is taking an active part in these elections, good luck to you all and remember that while there is much that divides us, there is more that unites us and at least we all care enough to get involved!

    We shall see who has egg on their faces very soon now!

    Reposted from previous thread
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    IOS said:

    All polls now showing Ed as PM.

    I've just laid davePM @ 1.9

    insaaane

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn ·
    EXCL: Final YouGov/Sun poll for #GE2015 - Tories have 18 point lead on managing the economy, 40% to 22% http://www.sunnation.co.uk/every-vote-counts-as-major-sun-poll-shows-labour-and-tories-tied/

    Tory Newton Dunn wins todays Straw Clutching Award, and he has beaten off some fierce competition on here.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Its clear UNS will be unreliable tomorrow. This comes down the the ground war in the marginals it could go either way. Peter kellner say tories largest party. Hes sticking his neck out there
    .i hope jack W is right and EMWNBPM
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    acf2310 said:

    Kelner calls it for Dave

    Polls say EICIPM



    If Kelner actually thinks it's tied, he's saying that there's a good chance of Lab most votes, Con most seats.
    DONT TELL DAVID HERDSON
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Something smells fishy with the polling numbers. A week ago there was a spread from Tory +6 to Labour +2, a range of 9. Now it seems that virtually every poll spreads from Tory +1 to Tie, a range of 2.

    Smells fishy.

    Drop in "undecided but going to vote"s, probably.
  • Evening all,
    I've received an email from Labour asking me to help the GOTV operation in my nearest marginal. A legacy from when I joined for £1 to help elect Ed as leader.
    According to the email, this happens to be Stevenage.
    Enfield North is only about 0.7 of a mile away. Is Enfield North not considered a marginal anymore?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Mr. Eagles, adrenaline and tequila will keep you going.

    I'm just obsessed about the pandas bet and if Reckless were to lose
    I will be working my nuts off tomorrow for Mark to keep R&S and your hate will drive me on when I am flagging!
    I don't hate him.
    No I'm sure you don't really . Him and his wife Catriona are actually really nice people if you ever meet get the chance to meet them.
    UKIP are a party loaded with racists.. .. the news almost daily tells us this...
    Well I'm not one and have never encountered any racism amongst the people I have met in the Party. if someone accused me of that openly and published it I would sue them.
    The news pretty well only gives UKIP centre billing when the hacks sense a scandal. Hundreds of Labour and Conservative councillors are regularly up in front of the beaks for fraud, viewing child pornography etc etc - but they aren't UKIP.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    No polls are showing a situation where Cameron can be PM, so Tories have to rely on them all being wrong, and by quite a bit as well. If that is the case, that is simply remarkable - that not some, but all of them would be so wrong.

    But the pollsters are aware of the danger of calling it so wrong, much more so than 1992 surely, so I think they will have prepared well enough to err on the side of caution without going too far and ignoring/missing what is really happening.

    But now I must get an early night in preparation for the being awake for 36+hours, barring power naps if possible, so a good night.

    Tories, do not worry - Ed will not be a total disaster, and there will be opportunities to prepare well for the next chance.

    Labour - It'll be a tough government to be in charge of, but I hope you rise to the challenge.

    LDs - Hang in there I guess.

    UKIP - The fight for 2020 begins now, you can build on this.

    Greens - Nice try

    SNP - Don't get cocky

    PC - No one cares

    NI - We care, but I'm staying out of it.

    Let the bloodbath commence.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    And I thought yesterdays was crap.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Have I got this right?

    11 pollsters - and Panelbase are the only ones with a Labour lead?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Virtually everyone tied in the final 24 hours?

    Seems too neat. Too convenient.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Not a very good Sun front page. Yesterdays was better.

    The election the press jumped the shark.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    IOS said:

    Not a very good Sun front page. Yesterdays was better.

    The election the press jumped the shark.

    Murdoch will be stringing them up by their bollocks for those crappy front pages.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    9 out of 10 of the final polls overestimated Labour at the Euros.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552

    Something smells fishy with the polling numbers. A week ago there was a spread from Tory +6 to Labour +2, a range of 9. Now it seems that virtually every poll spreads from Tory +1 to Tie, a range of 2.

    Smells fishy.

    That'll be the Kippers.

This discussion has been closed.