politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on this final day
Comments
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Mr. Owls, Labour wins the election, Balls stabs Miliband, Cameron joins Labour and stays PM, leading a Lab-SNP coalition!0
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No I'm sure you don't really . Him and his wife Catriona are actually really nice people if you ever meet get the chance to meet them.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don't hate him.PrinceofTaranto said:
I will be working my nuts off tomorrow for Mark to keep R&S and your hate will drive me on when I am flagging!TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm just obsessed about the pandas bet and if Reckless were to loseMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, adrenaline and tequila will keep you going.
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I must admit I was wrong in the 2011census the population. Was56 mill the estimate now is 64.million. More than ten per cent.0
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Not in Torbay. Most of the buggers have already voted!IOS said:MarqueeMark
What a stupid statement. tomorrow is the main day. God are the Tories that useless0 -
If Cameron hangs on and presents a Queens Speech will that qualify him to win the Betfair PM market - even if he loses the Queens Speech vote?0
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Mr. IOS, that was quite uncalled for. Don't be such a tinker.0
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??? Can that be right? £103? That's about a fiver a gameTykejohnno said:On the brilliant messi -
Christian Guy @ChristianGuy_ ·
Cheapest Barcelona season ticket: £103
Cheapest Shrewsbury Town season ticket: £250
It's £12 to watch Bishops Stortford, and frankly if they paid me £12 to stay until the end it would be overpriced...
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MikeL said:
Cameron now favourite again for next PM.
What on earth is going on?
Perhaps shortly there will be an election where his majority will increase?
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No idea of the result. All I will say is that it is remarkable that ALL the pollsters show pretty much a tie..
I think if anything the pollsters , or most of them are going to end up with egg on their face.
Whatever the outcome, its going to end up the serious mess that the politicians deserve.0 -
And what part of "the campaign is over" is wrong? That you are one of a million Labour workers armed with cattle prods to try and get your reluctant vote out tomorrow for Ed doesn't contradict that.IOS said:MarqueeMark
What a stupid statement. tomorrow is the main day. God are the Tories that useless0 -
They can if Cameron manages to stay PM long enough to unlock the Betfair market, but not actually long enough. I increasingly think the price to look iast is Ed as next PM after Cameron, on the basis that has to happen by Summer or not at all - he's not staying on to fight 2020 in any realistic world, is he, and since Cameron has said he'll go before 2020, Ed wouldn't be 'next'.bigjohnowls said:Cameron being PM tightening on Betfair
Lab most seat tightening.
Clearly both cant be right
If you don't agree with that, there's huge arbitrage - back Ed PM after election at 2.12, Lay Ed next PM after Cameron 1.69.
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Google estimated UK pooulation 2015. Can't be positively proven as our politicians diberatley doubt countasjohnstone said:
No, I just read the law and i know who can vote. The fact that you don't means I should probably leave it here, but I'll continue a little bit more.NoEasyDay said:
One of the founding policies of the EU is the ability to live, work AND vote in the place you reside. Or did you change the EU constitution.asjohnstone said:
The population of the UK hasn't increased 10% in the "last few years" it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011. It's mostly been driven by births rather than immigration. Read the 2011 census for the facts.NoEasyDay said:
The population of the UK has increased by approx 10% in the last few years most of working/ voting age. We know 8 out 10 immigrants vote Labour. And even if they don't vote they can take part in polls. Where are all these folks registered to vote, well I doubt its Kensington and Chelsea. They will buy and rent where the housing is cheapest which is solidly working class areas. Labour constituencies, rock solid Labour constituencies. Labour wasted vote syndrome anybody ?
Most of the immigration that has occurred has taken place from the EU, EU citizens can't vote.
You're pretty much wrong about everything
The 2011 census was four years ago and the work compiling obviously predates that. In fact if it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011 its not hard to see it going up a further 3% over the next four years.
Has population increased by 10% between 2001 and 2015 ? Yeah, perhaps, no one really knows. I don't think you meant that time period though when you said the "last few years" though.
You painted a picture of a vast flood of working age people, who overwhelmingly vote labour, thus leading to large numbers of wasted votes in safe seats, reducing overall vote efficiency. Nothing you say is supported by the facts.0 -
UKIP are a party loaded with racists.. .. the news almost daily tells us this...PrinceofTaranto said:
No I'm sure you don't really . Him and his wife Catriona are actually really nice people if you ever meet get the chance to meet them.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don't hate him.PrinceofTaranto said:
I will be working my nuts off tomorrow for Mark to keep R&S and your hate will drive me on when I am flagging!TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm just obsessed about the pandas bet and if Reckless were to loseMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, adrenaline and tequila will keep you going.
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When you lose by what ammounts to less than a couple of thousand votes I will remind you that it didnt matter.0
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MM ..... do you have a final prediction for Torbay, caveated or otherwise?MarqueeMark said:The campaign is over.
Well done to all those workers from each party who are going to bed tonight with aching bodies. You have given the voters a choice. Democracy can ask no more of you.
Whether the ungrateful bastards vote your guy in is out of your hands now.0 -
That's about right from when I was living in Barcelona. They've 90k seats to fill, although most ticket holders only go to the big games and sell their tickets the rest of the time. Note also that the season ticket includes all cup games too, these are always extra at English clubs. I paid 50Euros to watch them play Liverpool in the European cup in 2002.JonCisBack said:
??? Can that be right? £103? That's about a fiver a gameTykejohnno said:On the brilliant messi -
Christian Guy @ChristianGuy_ ·
Cheapest Barcelona season ticket: £103
Cheapest Shrewsbury Town season ticket: £250
It's £12 to watch Bishops Stortford, and frankly if they paid me £12 to stay until the end it would be overpriced...0 -
Final ComRes AND final Survation coming down the runway at 10.0
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Tie now counts as good Conservative result for early YouGov tweetTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Any sense of what's happening in Norwich South (gossip will do)?bunnco said:Extraordinarily well organised and resourced targeted Tory operation in Norwich North for Chloe Smith this evening drawing-in volunteers from miles around.
Over in Great Yarmouth, very compelling "You are in a Marginal Constituency and this is what's at stake and this is what you can do about it" leaflet delivered throughout to focus the Blue-Kippers' minds.
#TheEndGame
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
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Why, has Phil Woolas joined?SquareRoot said:
UKIP are a party loaded with racists.. .. the news almost daily tells us this...PrinceofTaranto said:
No I'm sure you don't really . Him and his wife Catriona are actually really nice people if you ever meet get the chance to meet them.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don't hate him.PrinceofTaranto said:
I will be working my nuts off tomorrow for Mark to keep R&S and your hate will drive me on when I am flagging!TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm just obsessed about the pandas bet and if Reckless were to loseMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, adrenaline and tequila will keep you going.
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Seconded, site working fine for me.Tissue_Price said:This is an absolute magnum opus from Number Cruncher Politics and might explain a lot - the market love for the Tories, the seats the leaders are campaigning in.
It also features the delicious line:
If this historical pattern holds, Dan Hodges is about to be proven right
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/05/shy-tory-factor-2015.html/
Unfortunately I think his site may be struggling under weight of traffic.
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So tell is ComRes and Survation, is it a Labour plurality and EICIPM, or a Con plurality and EICIPM.0
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The population of the UK in 2011 was 63 million you are confusing England and UK figuresNoEasyDay said:I must admit I was wrong in the 2011census the population. Was56 mill the estimate now is 64.million. More than ten per cent.
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His agent has:nigel4england said:
Why, has Phil Woolas joined?SquareRoot said:
UKIP are a party loaded with racists.. .. the news almost daily tells us this...PrinceofTaranto said:
No I'm sure you don't really . Him and his wife Catriona are actually really nice people if you ever meet get the chance to meet them.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don't hate him.PrinceofTaranto said:
I will be working my nuts off tomorrow for Mark to keep R&S and your hate will drive me on when I am flagging!TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm just obsessed about the pandas bet and if Reckless were to loseMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, adrenaline and tequila will keep you going.
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/former-agent-shamed-labour-mp-81532940 -
Well I'm not one and have never encountered any racism amongst the people I have met in the Party. if someone accused me of that openly and published it I would sue them.SquareRoot said:
UKIP are a party loaded with racists.. .. the news almost daily tells us this...PrinceofTaranto said:
No I'm sure you don't really . Him and his wife Catriona are actually really nice people if you ever meet get the chance to meet them.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don't hate him.PrinceofTaranto said:
I will be working my nuts off tomorrow for Mark to keep R&S and your hate will drive me on when I am flagging!TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm just obsessed about the pandas bet and if Reckless were to loseMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, adrenaline and tequila will keep you going.
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The polls seem to have clustered around the broken YouGov. Safety in numbers.
24 hours until the exit poll - and the start of the biggest ever "what went so wrong?" autopsy in political polling......0 -
That's what perplexes me, the polls are almost too uniform. Shouldn't there be more variation? Is is really possible that all the pollsters have become very good at weighting and adjusting their data to tease out the truth, despite this being a considerably more complex general election than normal?SquareRoot said:No idea of the result. All I will say is that it is remarkable that ALL the pollsters show pretty much a tie..
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Three tied polls, really?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Only SNP downfall could explain both trends.bigjohnowls said:Cameron being PM tightening on Betfair
Lab most seat tightening.
Clearly both cant be right0 -
IOS said:
Ahh didums Republic
We may not always shoe it,TheScreamingEagles said:
I have to be up at 4am tomorrow, to Get out the Vote in various bits of West Yorkshire.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Mortimer, it's good to dabble occasionally in modern history.
Mr. Eagles, hope you get some sleep during the day tomorrow. And the site holds up.
I was thinking I might try and spend the night writing.
Finish around 3, sleep, wake up at 8pm, and then edit PB tomorrow night as well.
But we do appreciate it!
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Things that are going to happen tomorrow:
1) Ed becomes is elected a PM
2) Dan Hodges qualifies for a streak down whitehall0 -
Unless the majority is 2 or less it does not matter whether you voted or notIOS said:When you lose by what ammounts to less than a couple of thousand votes I will remind you that it didnt matter.
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Looks like no EU referendum then - PM Ed won't be having one.0
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David Clegg @davieclegg 3m3 minutes ago
Just finished writing up the details of a mammoth +1600 sample @Survation Scotland poll for tomorrow's Daily Record. Details later.0 -
Final Survation tied Lab 33, Con 33, LD 9, UKIP 16, SNP 5 https://twitter.com/JBeattieMirror0
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Miliband 35% strategy looking good.0
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All polls now showing Ed as PM.0
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Comres Tories just ahead
CON - 35% (-)
LAB - 34% (+2)
UKIP - 12% (-2)
LDEM - 9% (-)
GRN - 4% (-)
https://twitter.com/britainelects0 -
These pollsters have all played a game0
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The trend is clear: it's level pegging.TheScreamingEagles said:
Wonder how Con tactical voters in Sheff Hallam will feel if Cleggy gets into bed with Miliband?!0 -
I'm loving it!FrancisUrquhart said:Miliband 35% strategy looking good.
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Not tomorrow and maybe not later eitherIOS said:Things that are going to happen tomorrow:
1) Ed becomes is elected a PM
2) Dan Hodges qualifies for a streak down whitehall0 -
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 21s22 seconds ago
25% of those likely to vote are undecided or may change their mind before tomorrow: @ComResPolls for @DailyMailUK
Anyone know how this compares to previous elections?0 -
Kelner calls it for Dave
Polls say EICIPM
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Fascinating that each time the Tories have got a lead in the polls Labour have dragged it back.
Can't believe I got on Labour most seats at 5.3 earlier.0 -
Presumably slightly better for the Tories - within MOE - as Survation usually have Labour ahead.HYUFD said:Final Survation tied Lab 33, Con 33, LD 9, UKIP 16, SNP 5 https://twitter.com/JBeattieMirror
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So he's covered either way really. 'I should have trusted my polling' vs 'Clearly I need to adjust my polling as I knew better'.bigjohnowls said:Kelner calls it for Dave
Polls say EICIPM
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Wow, that's be a clustef*ck of a result, Tory+LD exactly equally to Labour+SNP+PC. Greens+SDLP would just about nudge the left ahead. UKIP adding some to the right.TheScreamingEagles said:
Could Clegg work in a administration that relied on Kipper votes ? Maybe, could the bulk of his party? less certain.
If that result came to pass, I'd expect to see a Labour + LD government in power and daring the SNP to vote them out of office.
There's no way we don't get a train wreck
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If Kelner actually thinks it's tied, he's saying that there's a good chance of Lab most votes, Con most seats.bigjohnowls said:Kelner calls it for Dave
Polls say EICIPM
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You can get 4/1 in the bookiesFrankBooth said:Fascinating that each time the Tories have got a lead in the polls Labour have dragged it back.
Can't believe I got on Labour most seats at 5.3 earlier.0 -
Isn't Kelner another PB Hodge Lefty bogeyman as well?bigjohnowls said:Kelner calls it for Dave
Polls say EICIPM0 -
If that was the real result that would be hugely embarrassing for both Tories and Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The problem being you could have to wait 5 years to get paid out.oldpolitics said:
If you don't agree with that, there's huge arbitrage - back Ed PM after election at 2.12, Lay Ed next PM after Cameron 1.69.0 -
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Well Survation and Panelbase are out on a limb with their UKIP figures compared to other pollsters0
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Seems to me that the PastVoteWeighting is boosting the UKIP total in the polls more than is justified. Just because someone voted UKIP in the Euro's doesn;t mean that translates to the GE.
Fact to remember: In most recent Ashcroft in #GreatYarmouth, for example, the raw data [over 1000 respondents] saw Tory Brandon Lewis was 7pts ahead of Labour. After adjusting for Past Vote Weighting from the Kippers, Lewis was deducted 5pts leaving him just 2 ahead of Labour. But Labour wasn't deducted any points at all.
That's bonkers!
Last year in the Council elections, where they elect in thirds, 13 seats were up for grabs. UKIP scooped 10 of them on the back of the EU elections. But the 10 were taken equally from Cons [5] and Labour [5]. So why did the Tories get penalised and not Labour in this Bellwether seat?
Undoubtedly people have voted UKIP in the [recent] past in relatively inconsequential elections but there's no way the extent of that support is mirrored in the General Election polling. My observable doorstep experience is that UKIP support is evaporating in this seaside borough. Helped by a 48% reduction in local unemployment.
But the Past Vote Weighting wrt UKIP seems to have several problems
1 It treats a previous UKIP vote in the council or Euro elections equally with the General Election - a heroic assumption
2 The experience in the marginal seat polling is that the past-vote-weighting is deducted exclusively from the Tory with none from Labour. Just not credible
So my instinct from all this is that UKIP has been methodologically overstated based on recent voting in council areas where they elect in thirds. And that over-statement has been disproportionately in favour Labour, not the Tories for reasons I can't understand.
That's what'll come out of the wash-up when the pollsters work out what went wrong.
BTW, had a nice chat with fmr senior exec of IpsosMori up here in bandit country last week. Lots of stories. NSFW.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot0 -
I suppose the autopsy begins here whatever the result, and I still hope for a Tory maj.
One failure I can point to in the Tory campaign is failing to draw attention to:
1) Mid-staffs
2) PFI contracts
Both fit into the 'competence' theme whilst totally undermining the 'we're good at the NHS stuff' that Labour carp on about.0 -
Hmm. While the Lab and Con scores are congregating, there is still quite a bit of variance on UKIP. 11% for ICM, 16% for Survation0
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Farcical isn't it?MarkHopkins said:0 -
There are two options in Sheff HallamKentRising said:
The trend is clear: it's level pegging.TheScreamingEagles said:
Wonder how Con tactical voters in Sheff Hallam will feel if Cleggy gets into bed with Miliband?!
1) Labour win - definitely opposes Tories
2) Clegg Wins - might support Tories.
Once you postulate that the Tories can't win it is clear that 2 is better - even if it turns out that the LDs do go over to the dark side.0 -
Unfortunately you are desperately wrong about everything even after your wrongness has been pointed out plainly to you. You cannot vote in national elections as a EU citizen. Tomorrow is a national election and I find it shocking that you can be so casual in your ignorance and in your generalities about population.NoEasyDay said:
One of the founding policies of the EU is the ability to live, work AND vote in the place you reside. Or did you change the EU constitution.asjohnstone said:
The population of the UK hasn't increased 10% in the "last few years" it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011. It's mostly been driven by births rather than immigration. Read the 2011 census for the facts.NoEasyDay said:
The population of the UK has increased by approx 10% in the last few years most of working/ voting age. We know 8 out 10 immigrants vote Labour. And even if they don't vote they can take part in polls. Where are all these folks registered to vote, well I doubt its Kensington and Chelsea. They will buy and rent where the housing is cheapest which is solidly working class areas. Labour constituencies, rock solid Labour constituencies. Labour wasted vote syndrome anybody ?
Most of the immigration that has occurred has taken place from the EU, EU citizens can't vote.
You're pretty much wrong about everything
The 2011 census was four years ago and the work compiling obviously predates that. In fact if it went up 7% between 2001 and 2011 its not hard to see it going up a further 3% over the next four years.
You seem to think that the census relates to a collection of years before 2011 and that '2011' merely relates to its publication. In fact it refers to one day in 2011 and data is published over a period 'after' that!
Sadly I am increasingly drawn to the view that your opinions are just another example of the virtual reality world that people live in these days.
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weejonnie Indeed a better poll for Tories there0
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Latest Scottish Westminster poll (YouGov):
SNP - 48% (-1)
LAB - 27% (+1)
CON - 14% (-1)
LDEM - 7% (-)0 -
FU Ed has not reached 35% in any of these final polls, the Tories have with Comres0
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It is too uniform as polling goes, either they are all correct or there has been a mighty fuck up. I think its the latter but we shall see.. my cheque to Mr Palmer is as yet unsigned and I hope it remains so.currystar said:These pollsters have all played a game
A Labour Govt would be a disaster , but the voters get what they deserve.0 -
Does he call it for Dave ?bigjohnowls said:Kelner calls it for Dave
Polls say EICIPM
Cons+LD+DUP = 324 in his numbers.
If that's not TCTC then I don't know what is.0 -
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn ·
EXCL: Final YouGov/Sun poll for #GE2015 - Tories have 18 point lead on managing the economy, 40% to 22% http://www.sunnation.co.uk/every-vote-counts-as-major-sun-poll-shows-labour-and-tories-tied/ …
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Have we got a final prediction from those polling models that were showing 98% Tory most seats, 80% Tory majority? It's just that Tory swingback is feeling all lonely in Room 101.0
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The day the polls turnedchestnut said:Latest Scottish Westminster poll (YouGov):
SNP - 48% (-1)
LAB - 27% (+1)
CON - 14% (-1)
LDEM - 7% (-)0 -
They have all produced a final poll which is middle of the road. With polling moe it's highly unlikelyLaurus said:
Woah.currystar said:These pollsters have all played a game
I agree they have struggled with the new landscape (and might be facing a mid 90s style reckoning, one way or another). But "played a game"?0 -
Something smells fishy with the polling numbers. A week ago there was a spread from Tory +6 to Labour +2, a range of 9. Now it seems that virtually every poll spreads from Tory +1 to Tie, a range of 2.
Smells fishy.0 -
Not really. People forget now but the '35% strategy' was about winning a majority. Incidentally has any party strategy ever been more discussed without ever being confirmed as real? I'm not sure I've seen a single sympathetic person to Miliband mention it.FrancisUrquhart said:Miliband 35% strategy looking good.
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Reposted from previous threadDavidBrackenbury said:The real poll starts in nine hours and will say what it says. It will be fascinating and I think that we are all (and the Pollsters too) in uncharted waters.
To everyone on PB who is taking an active part in these elections, good luck to you all and remember that while there is much that divides us, there is more that unites us and at least we all care enough to get involved!
We shall see who has egg on their faces very soon now!0 -
Tory Newton Dunn wins todays Straw Clutching Award, and he has beaten off some fierce competition on here.Tykejohnno said:Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn ·
EXCL: Final YouGov/Sun poll for #GE2015 - Tories have 18 point lead on managing the economy, 40% to 22% http://www.sunnation.co.uk/every-vote-counts-as-major-sun-poll-shows-labour-and-tories-tied/ …0 -
Its clear UNS will be unreliable tomorrow. This comes down the the ground war in the marginals it could go either way. Peter kellner say tories largest party. Hes sticking his neck out there
.i hope jack W is right and EMWNBPM
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DONT TELL DAVID HERDSONacf2310 said:
If Kelner actually thinks it's tied, he's saying that there's a good chance of Lab most votes, Con most seats.bigjohnowls said:Kelner calls it for Dave
Polls say EICIPM0 -
Drop in "undecided but going to vote"s, probably.Philip_Thompson said:Something smells fishy with the polling numbers. A week ago there was a spread from Tory +6 to Labour +2, a range of 9. Now it seems that virtually every poll spreads from Tory +1 to Tie, a range of 2.
Smells fishy.0 -
Evening all,
I've received an email from Labour asking me to help the GOTV operation in my nearest marginal. A legacy from when I joined for £1 to help elect Ed as leader.
According to the email, this happens to be Stevenage.
Enfield North is only about 0.7 of a mile away. Is Enfield North not considered a marginal anymore?0 -
The news pretty well only gives UKIP centre billing when the hacks sense a scandal. Hundreds of Labour and Conservative councillors are regularly up in front of the beaks for fraud, viewing child pornography etc etc - but they aren't UKIP.PrinceofTaranto said:
Well I'm not one and have never encountered any racism amongst the people I have met in the Party. if someone accused me of that openly and published it I would sue them.SquareRoot said:
UKIP are a party loaded with racists.. .. the news almost daily tells us this...PrinceofTaranto said:
No I'm sure you don't really . Him and his wife Catriona are actually really nice people if you ever meet get the chance to meet them.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don't hate him.PrinceofTaranto said:
I will be working my nuts off tomorrow for Mark to keep R&S and your hate will drive me on when I am flagging!TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm just obsessed about the pandas bet and if Reckless were to loseMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, adrenaline and tequila will keep you going.
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No polls are showing a situation where Cameron can be PM, so Tories have to rely on them all being wrong, and by quite a bit as well. If that is the case, that is simply remarkable - that not some, but all of them would be so wrong.
But the pollsters are aware of the danger of calling it so wrong, much more so than 1992 surely, so I think they will have prepared well enough to err on the side of caution without going too far and ignoring/missing what is really happening.
But now I must get an early night in preparation for the being awake for 36+hours, barring power naps if possible, so a good night.
Tories, do not worry - Ed will not be a total disaster, and there will be opportunities to prepare well for the next chance.
Labour - It'll be a tough government to be in charge of, but I hope you rise to the challenge.
LDs - Hang in there I guess.
UKIP - The fight for 2020 begins now, you can build on this.
Greens - Nice try
SNP - Don't get cocky
PC - No one cares
NI - We care, but I'm staying out of it.
Let the bloodbath commence.0 -
And I thought yesterdays was crap.FrancisUrquhart said:I think even the Sun are bored...
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/5960590967905402880 -
Have I got this right?
11 pollsters - and Panelbase are the only ones with a Labour lead?0 -
Virtually everyone tied in the final 24 hours?
Seems too neat. Too convenient.0 -
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Not a very good Sun front page. Yesterdays was better.
The election the press jumped the shark.0 -
Murdoch will be stringing them up by their bollocks for those crappy front pages.IOS said:Not a very good Sun front page. Yesterdays was better.
The election the press jumped the shark.0 -
9 out of 10 of the final polls overestimated Labour at the Euros.0
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That'll be the Kippers.Philip_Thompson said:Something smells fishy with the polling numbers. A week ago there was a spread from Tory +6 to Labour +2, a range of 9. Now it seems that virtually every poll spreads from Tory +1 to Tie, a range of 2.
Smells fishy.
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