politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM phone poll naming Clegg has him holding Sheffield Halla
Comments
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Yeh I'd vote Danny nice haircut,Casino_Royale said:
Nick Clegg, David Laws and Danny Alexander (only) for me.Sean_F said:
I'd vote tactically for Nick Clegg, John Hemming, Lord Thurso, Alistair Carmichael, Danny Alexander, Simon Hughes, and Greg Mulholland.Richard_Nabavi said:I am not too surprised at this poll. Personally, I'd vote tactically for the LibDems only in two cases: Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander.
Edit: unless it was a choice of them or Labour, in which case Simon Hughes might come into play. Maybe.0 -
We have known for some time that you are cleverer than everyone else. Good to see you are braver, too. But best of all would be some actual evidence for either claim.surbiton said:
He thought he could handle 85 mph balls. Of course, he can't. I don't buy that psychological stuff. He was just sc**ed !AndyJS said:
Sad but why did he come back for such a short time?TheScreamingEagles said:Jonathan Trott has retired from international cricket.
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I see stig abell has hinted that tonight's yougov is a) score draw or b) 2% lab or con lead0
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Just seen a face book post by a Lib Dem activist here in Colchester which has been reposted by my local councilor.
Basically he says the tories are throwing the Kitchen sink at Colchester "to punish Sir Bob for his voting habits"
Claims they need extra help and asking for volunteers.
From what I have seen and heard around here they do seem slightly twitchy but looking at the last election, the Ashcroft poll and Electoral Calculus' prediction (erosion of majority from 15% to 4%) it still seems a sure hold.
If they lose this place they really are in for a nation wide kicking.
On the plus side my wife is back in the yellow corner after a personal visit from Sir Bob this morning.
I am torn, but although slightly wavering in recent days I think I am going to have to go blue- the disgusting dog whistle attack by the local councilor on tories being racists plus Sir Bob voting to keep that ****hole as speaker threaten to overwhelm the feeling of owing Sir Bob for his help a couple of years back.
BTW he seemed genuinely touched when my son personally thanked him for his help today.
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I think on balance I'd like a spell of weak government. Both main parties have shown they have either stupid ideas or actively counterproductive ideas for this Parliament. I'd like them not to be able to implement them.
My perfect government would involve one of the two main parties working weakly with the Lib Dems. I don't think that's going to happen, so of the two minority governments I'd prefer the Conservatives simply because a Labour minority government would be drawn unhealthily further left by the SNP. But it will be awful for whoever gets the job. It looks set to be a zugzwang Parliament for both main parties.0 -
Ooooh!
The Sun chappy has just told Mike tonight's YouGov is not Lab lead of 1% nor a Tory lead of 1%.
(So a tie then?)0 -
What's happened in the last 48 hours that's meant it's 'slipped' away from Miliband - the polls are pretty much deadlocked (and look to be more closer than they did in mid-week); and we are looking towards a nightmare situation where no one party is able to govern because they can't get the numbers together. This is an election where there literally are no winners.Ishmael_X said:
Tipping point.TheScreamingEagles said:Eff me the Indy are endorsing the coalition (I think)
A hung parliament is certain this week. For all his talk of no deals with the SNP, Miliband is bound to rely on that party to get his legislative programme through. This would be a disaster for the country, unleashing justified fury in England at the decisive influence of MPs who – unlike this title – do not wish the Union to exist. If that were to be the case while Labour were the second biggest party either in terms of vote share, or seats – or both – how could Labour govern with authority? They could not. Any partnership between Labour and the SNP will harm Britain’s fragile democracy. For all its faults, another Lib-Con Coalition would both prolong recovery and give our kingdom a better chance of continued existence.
This title casts no vote. But we prize strong, effective government, consider nationalism guilty until proven innocent, and say that if the present Coalition is to get another chance, we hope it is much less conservative, and much more liberal.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/in-defence-of-liberal-democracy-10224221.html
Seriously, it feels like this has been the 48 hours where it slipped away from ed.
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Knackered after a day on the doorsteps in sunny Pembs. Should have put the lotion on!
Decent responses, Labour may just have a chance. No sign of UKIP, Lib Dem, Plaid support. Straight fight Tory/Labour.
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I think YG is a 2% Con lead (which will lead this place to explode) or a tie.0
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Labour lead of 2%?TheScreamingEagles said:Ooooh!
The Sun chappy has just told Mike tonight's YouGov is not Lab lead of 1% nor a Tory lead of 1%.
(So a tie then?)
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Guess we'll have to contend ourselves with.... "Were you up for Danny?"
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Labour ahead by 5%Casino_Royale said:
Labour lead of 2%?TheScreamingEagles said:Ooooh!
The Sun chappy has just told Mike tonight's YouGov is not Lab lead of 1% nor a Tory lead of 1%.
(So a tie then?)
EdStone wot won it!0 -
Not taking power would probably be disastrous. I doubt that Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair would have turned down the opportunity of power (quite rightly) if it was the will of the House of Commons, and as far as as I am aware it is up to the House of Commons to choose the government - not the newspapers, most of whom are even more unpopular than the politicians.TheScreamingEagles said:The Indy is making the point I made yesterday, if Labour finish second in terms of seats and votes takes power with the assistance of the SNP would be utterly disastrous for Labour
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I agree it would be tricky but as a left of centre voter I have to say I'd consider tearing my hair out if we have to have 5 more years of Thatcher's children because Labour is wiped out in Scotland by a party to its left. If you take Sean F's numbers as a rough guide though it's not clear if Cameron can get a majority behind him. Perhaps Labour abstain on a Queen's Speech and get a new leader ready for another election. Risky though.TheScreamingEagles said:The Indy is making the point I made yesterday, if Labour finish second in terms of seats and votes takes power with the assistance of the SNP would be utterly disastrous for Labour
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Please, no!TheScreamingEagles said:
Labour ahead by 5%Casino_Royale said:
Labour lead of 2%?TheScreamingEagles said:Ooooh!
The Sun chappy has just told Mike tonight's YouGov is not Lab lead of 1% nor a Tory lead of 1%.
(So a tie then?)
EdStone wot won it!0 -
Miliband has created problems for himself on his left flank in England with that refusing to work with SNP stuff by the way. Seen fairly strong anecdotal evidence of that.Dair said:
Labour can't do any deals with the SDLP any more.RobbieBox said:
The SDLP MPs would normally vote with Labour, the Alliance and the independent could be persuaded to back a Con/Lib-Dem coalition on most issues.NoEasyDay said:
WELL there are the 5 Sinn Fein Mps, The 3 SDLP MPs, an independent and an alliance type.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Which 10 Seats are Sinn Fein going to win?NoEasyDay said:
Your maths is a bit awry old bean. if the anti tories get 320 the then by definition the pro tories get 320 the difference of course being made up of Sinn Fein 10 mps whom I assume would abstain.= a drawFrankBooth said:Polls still suggesting the anti-Tory parties will get about 320 MPs. Hard to see Cameron surviving on those numbers.
Will the Blairite 5th column come to his rescue?
Now that would be funny.
I concede
They have ruled out working with any party that wants to see the UK broken up.0 -
That would entail nearly unheard of (in recent times) movement of +3. I'm sure I can take such drastic shifts.Casino_Royale said:
Labour lead of 2%?TheScreamingEagles said:Ooooh!
The Sun chappy has just told Mike tonight's YouGov is not Lab lead of 1% nor a Tory lead of 1%.
(So a tie then?)
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Sharp move out in Con majority on BF
14
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A kipper tie ....TheScreamingEagles said:Ooooh!
The Sun chappy has just told Mike tonight's YouGov is not Lab lead of 1% nor a Tory lead of 1%.
(So a tie then?)
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The Ed Stone, and the NS revelation that lab think their position is worse than Ashcroft, are making me think that ed will get a really bad second place, rather than just a second place, in seats and votes, and that his hope of not doing a deal with the SNP but doing a series of deals with them is actually untenable.The_Apocalypse said:
What's happened in the last 48 hours that's meant it's 'slipped' away from Miliband - the polls are pretty much deadlocked (and look to be more closer than they did in mid-week); and we are looking towards a nightmare situation where no one party is able to govern because they can't get the numbers together. This is an election where there literally are no winners.Ishmael_X said:
Tipping point.TheScreamingEagles said:Eff me the Indy are endorsing the coalition (I think)
A hung parliament is certain this week. For all his talk of no deals with the SNP, Miliband is bound to rely on that party to get his legislative programme through. This would be a disaster for the country, unleashing justified fury in England at the decisive influence of MPs who – unlike this title – do not wish the Union to exist. If that were to be the case while Labour were the second biggest party either in terms of vote share, or seats – or both – how could Labour govern with authority? They could not. Any partnership between Labour and the SNP will harm Britain’s fragile democracy. For all its faults, another Lib-Con Coalition would both prolong recovery and give our kingdom a better chance of continued existence.
This title casts no vote. But we prize strong, effective government, consider nationalism guilty until proven innocent, and say that if the present Coalition is to get another chance, we hope it is much less conservative, and much more liberal.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/in-defence-of-liberal-democracy-10224221.html
Seriously, it feels like this has been the 48 hours where it slipped away from ed.0 -
Wow. The indie surprises me, perhaps they could be the house paper for tse and my new tory party?0
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Ismael
Now here is your problem. You believe that NS article.
Anyone else who believes that - who wants to give me odds of Hornsey and Wood Green.0 -
A UKIP lead?0
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Splendid! Though back at work tommorow I do need to have a peek at your ARSE before the Broxtowe pub night.JackW said:
JackW's ARSE never sits on the fence.foxinsoxuk said:
I hope that you will call each of the JackW dozen currently listed as TCTC. I would not want to see your ARSE uncomfortably sitting on the fence.JackW said:Final ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
777 minutes
............................................................
The SUPER ARSE eve of poll has been advanced one hour to 9:00pm on Wednesday.
TCTC seats will be called :
TCTC Party - Indicating which party is ahead but by fewer than 500 votes.0 -
Maybe not officially, but a minority Labour government could present bills and dare the SNP and SDLP not to back them, plus I'm sure unofficial contacts would be maintained on the quiet.Dair said:
Labour can't do any deals with the SDLP any more.RobbieBox said:
The SDLP MPs would normally vote with Labour, the Alliance and the independent could be persuaded to back a Con/Lib-Dem coalition on most issues.NoEasyDay said:
WELL there are the 5 Sinn Fein Mps, The 3 SDLP MPs, an independent and an alliance type.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Which 10 Seats are Sinn Fein going to win?NoEasyDay said:
Your maths is a bit awry old bean. if the anti tories get 320 the then by definition the pro tories get 320 the difference of course being made up of Sinn Fein 10 mps whom I assume would abstain.= a drawFrankBooth said:Polls still suggesting the anti-Tory parties will get about 320 MPs. Hard to see Cameron surviving on those numbers.
Will the Blairite 5th column come to his rescue?
Now that would be funny.
I concede
They have ruled out working with any party that wants to see the UK broken up.
Likewise if there is a Con/Lib-Dem coalition minority government, they could receive support from Ulster Unionist and UKIP MPs on enough issues to get them by.0 -
Bank Holiday + You Gov = Lab lead surely ?0
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I agree 2% con lead, and reserve the right to claim that because of YouGov's over-damping methodology that's a 5 point lead in real money.The_Apocalypse said:I think YG is a 2% Con lead (which will lead this place to explode) or a tie.
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Thats not Glamorgan or Aberconwy is it, need those two seats to stay bluevalleyboy said:Knackered after a day on the doorsteps in sunny Pembs. Should have put the lotion on!
Decent responses, Labour may just have a chance. No sign of UKIP, Lib Dem, Plaid support. Straight fight Tory/Labour.
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I know. But long term politically it could be very damaging for Labour.ukelect said:
Not taking power would probably be disastrous. I doubt that Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair would have turned down the opportunity of power (quite rightly) if it was the will of the House of Commons, and as far as as I am aware it is up to the House of Commons to choose the government - not the newspapers, most of whom are even more unpopular than the politicians.TheScreamingEagles said:The Indy is making the point I made yesterday, if Labour finish second in terms of seats and votes takes power with the assistance of the SNP would be utterly disastrous for Labour
The political equivalent of playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun for Ed.0 -
Anecdote alert. Having spent a fantastic day at Arlington Stadium with the hard working people of Sussex it seems most of them want to be left the hell alone to eat cheesy chips and watch the Demolition Derby. However, we did chat politics and our Brighton buddies were saying that Green Party B. Pavillion is shipping in London canvassers to shore up a very rocky situation. The council there is dire (and I know from first hand experience). The story being told on door is to reelect Caroline because she can be the Green conscience of Parliament. Nothing to do with local representation as people know the Green council has been so bad. The window poster say "Relect Caroline Lucas" as opposed to "Vote Green" (cos they all know what happened last time they did that).0
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Yup. I officially take back all those criticisms of the Indy and the jokes about their circulation only being three Fabians and a chip shop in Blackpool.Scrapheap_as_was said:Wow. The indie surprises me, perhaps they could be the house paper for tse and my new tory party?
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Drove along the A25 yesterday. Two posters in the fields for Fallon, but that was it.0
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I really don't understand ScreamingEagles and his 'The Sky Is Falling In' post. Scotland had their referendum on Independence and (more narrowly than we would have liked) there was a vote to retain the Union. As an Englishman, I could only look North last year and be slightly jealous by the hyper-engaged electorate and the energy that engagement brought to politics in Scotland.The_Apocalypse said:
What's happened in the last 48 hours that's meant it's 'slipped' away from Miliband - the polls are pretty much deadlocked (and look to be more closer than they did in mid-week); and we are looking towards a nightmare situation where no one party is able to govern because they can't get the numbers together. This is an election where there literally are no winners.Ishmael_X said:
Tipping point.TheScreamingEagles said:Eff me the Indy are endorsing the coalition (I think)
A hung parliament is certain this week. For all his talk of no deals with the SNP, Miliband is bound to rely on that party to get his legislative programme through. This would be a disaster for the country, unleashing justified fury in England at the decisive influence of MPs who – unlike this title – do not wish the Union to exist. If that were to be the case while Labour were the second biggest party either in terms of vote share, or seats – or both – how could Labour govern with authority? They could not. Any partnership between Labour and the SNP will harm Britain’s fragile democracy. For all its faults, another Lib-Con Coalition would both prolong recovery and give our kingdom a better chance of continued existence.
This title casts no vote. But we prize strong, effective government, consider nationalism guilty until proven innocent, and say that if the present Coalition is to get another chance, we hope it is much less conservative, and much more liberal.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/in-defence-of-liberal-democracy-10224221.html
Seriously, it feels like this has been the 48 hours where it slipped away from ed.
I'm looking forward to a hoarde of SNP politicians coming to Westminster and bringing this energy with them. Yes, they are going to press for as many benefits from the Union to Scotland as they can get - of course they are - but this will force the E&W politicians to up their game.
The SNP will have one parliament to show that they have faith in Westminster and the Union, or else Labour will simply retake seats at the next GE. I think many of the electorate 'get' this - hence a sneaking admiration for Nicola Sturgeon. As for everyone else, apparently we were desperate to keep the Union alive - so why aren't we making the SNP feel very welcome when they come down south? Talk about having your cake and eating it...0 -
The fear from me is that I don't think the E&W gang are able to up their game. I hope they prove me wrong.bookseller said:
I really don't understand ScreamingEagles and his 'The Sky Is Falling In' post. Scotland had their referendum on Independence and (more narrowly than we would have liked) there was a vote to retain the Union. As an Englishman, I could only look North last year and be slightly jealous by the hyper-engaged electorate and the energy that engagement brought to politics in Scotland.The_Apocalypse said:
What's happened in the last 48 hours that's meant it's 'slipped' away from Miliband - the polls are pretty much deadlocked (and look to be more closer than they did in mid-week); and we are looking towards a nightmare situation where no one party is able to govern because they can't get the numbers together. This is an election where there literally are no winners.Ishmael_X said:
Tipping point.TheScreamingEagles said:Eff me the Indy are endorsing the coalition (I think)
A hung parliament is certain this week. For all his talk of no deals with the SNP, Miliband is bound to rely on that party to get his legislative programme through. This would be a disaster for the country, unleashing justified fury in England at the decisive influence of MPs who – unlike this title – do not wish the Union to exist. If that were to be the case while Labour were the second biggest party either in terms of vote share, or seats – or both – how could Labour govern with authority? They could not. Any partnership between Labour and the SNP will harm Britain’s fragile democracy. For all its faults, another Lib-Con Coalition would both prolong recovery and give our kingdom a better chance of continued existence.
This title casts no vote. But we prize strong, effective government, consider nationalism guilty until proven innocent, and say that if the present Coalition is to get another chance, we hope it is much less conservative, and much more liberal.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/in-defence-of-liberal-democracy-10224221.html
Seriously, it feels like this has been the 48 hours where it slipped away from ed.
I'm looking forward to a hoarde of SNP politicians coming to Westminster and bringing this energy with them. Yes, they are going to press for as many benefits from the Union to Scotland as they can get - of course they are - but this will force the E&W politicians to up their game.
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Lucas will hose up easily - she has the "name" factor. The 4-9 or w/e on her is great value.Creidekki said:Anecdote alert. Having spent a fantastic day at Arlington Stadium with the hard working people of Sussex it seems most of them want to be left the hell alone to eat cheesy chips and watch the Demolition Derby. However, we did chat politics and our Brighton buddies were saying that Green Party B. Pavillion is shipping in London canvassers to shore up a very rocky situation. The council there is dire (and I know from first hand experience). The story being told on door is to reelect Caroline because she can be the Green conscience of Parliament. Nothing to do with local representation as people know the Green council has been so bad. The window poster say "Relect Caroline Lucas" as opposed to "Vote Green" (cos they all know what happened last time they did that).
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Tories by more than 2.TheScreamingEagles said:Ooooh!
The Sun chappy has just told Mike tonight's YouGov is not Lab lead of 1% nor a Tory lead of 1%.
(So a tie then?)
Last night's 2010:2015 ratio was a 4 point Tory lead0 -
"Exhibit 1: Ukelect forecast yesterday Lab Short By 53 - Hung Parliament
Ukelect forecast 1 Oct 2014 Labour Majority 44 - Gain from NOC"
Interesting that they show Labour with a majority of seats. Most of the experts seem to think Les Bleus have the edge0 -
I put 50 quid in lab maj today to complete portfolio. Now in the money provided there isn't a tie between lab and Tory for most seats...0
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JackW Ashcroft stated the candidate should be an in-built consideration in voter's decision anyway, his response here
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/the-liberal-democrat-battleground/0 -
Er...the Tories went into coalition with LibDems and the LibDems will likely halve their MPs. Why wouldn't the SNP be in a similar situation if they went into coalition with Labour?TheScreamingEagles said:
I know. But long term politically it could be very damaging for Labour.ukelect said:
Not taking power would probably be disastrous. I doubt that Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair would have turned down the opportunity of power (quite rightly) if it was the will of the House of Commons, and as far as as I am aware it is up to the House of Commons to choose the government - not the newspapers, most of whom are even more unpopular than the politicians.TheScreamingEagles said:The Indy is making the point I made yesterday, if Labour finish second in terms of seats and votes takes power with the assistance of the SNP would be utterly disastrous for Labour
The political equivalent of playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun for Ed.0 -
FPT;
This meme of "the tories have borrowed more than Labour"
Well the comparison is ridiculously unfair and absurd of course given the relative starting points of the regimes. (Like Labour would have eliminated the £156bn deficit so much more quickly...)
But the point is it has just become a he-said she-said argument now, and most voters don't care, don't understand, and discount it massively. Labour have been allowed to get away with the deficit issue almost completely.
Quite simply this is failure by the tories. Mike has repeatedly posted polls showing that whilst for much of the parliament Labour got the main blame for the cuts, as time has gone on this has been much less clear cut. A much bigger effort on the economic message was required, much more to scare people against voting Labour.
Hasn't happened. Tory campaign a massive failure, their ace of trumps frittered away.0 -
I doubt that Ed Stone has made that much of an impact - it's quite funny, but it's not enough to shift votes. As for the NS - they're rather vague with their inferences, and much of it appears to be based on canvassing returns rather than internal polling. The article, also in some ways rather contradicts itself; on the one hand it infers that Ashcroft polling is matching up to negative expectations, sighting Battersea and on the other hand is being over-optimistic. Personally, I see Labour being around 20 seats behind the Tories, at worse. I doubt they would have informed The Times they'll be 5-10 seats behind if they thought they were going to do that badly - after all, going into these final days much of what Labour will be doing is expectation management, as will the Conservatives.Ishmael_X said:The Ed Stone, and the NS revelation that lab think their position is worse than Ashcroft, are making me think that ed will get a really bad second place, rather than just a second place, in seats and votes, and that his hope of not doing a deal with the SNP but doing a series of deals with them is actually untenable.
The series of SNP-deals is untenable, but then again so is any of the possible governing arrangements. Cameron will need the LDs in any case to be able to govern, and it looking that it will be far harder for Clegg to convince three lots of groups - his parliamentary party, his federal executive, and his special conference of grassroots' to accept another coalition, let alone what is realistically needed - UKIP and DUP support. I simply don't see a much politically diminished Nick Clegg, whose existing red-lines are reported to not have the complete support of senior colleagues convincing LDs to sign up to that. Which gives Labour an ideal situation of either watching a Conservative minority government fail, or a Con-LD coalition (if it happens) failing. Labour can then regroup, and go into what is likely to be a second election, and by that point I'd be shocked if Clegg wasn't gone.0 -
Half of them will be incoherent numptys, lobby McFodder and the occasional bigot.bookseller said:
I really don't understand ScreamingEagles and his 'The Sky Is Falling In' post. Scotland had their referendum on Independence and (more narrowly than we would have liked) there was a vote to retain the Union. As an Englishman, I could only look North last year and be slightly jealous by the hyper-engaged electorate and the energy that engagement brought to politics in Scotland.The_Apocalypse said:
What's happened in the last 48 hours that's meant it's 'slipped' away from Miliband - the polls are pretty much deadlocked (and look to be more closer than they did in mid-week); and we are looking towards a nightmare situation where no one party is able to govern because they can't get the numbers together. This is an election where there literally are no winners.Ishmael_X said:
Tipping point.TheScreamingEagles said:Eff me the Indy are endorsing the coalition (I think)
A hung parliament is certain this week. For all his talk of no deals with the SNP, Miliband is bound to rely on that party to get his legislative programme through. This would be a disaster for the country, unleashing justified fury in England at the decisive influence of MPs who – unlike this title – do not wish the Union to exist. If thatot. Any partnership between Labour and the SNP will harm Britain’s fragile democracy. For all its faults, another Lib-Con Coalition would both prolong recovery and give our kingdom a better chance
This title casts no vote. But we prize strong, effective government, consider nationalism guilty until proven innocent, and say that if the present Coalition is to get another chance, we hope it is much less conservative, and much more liberal.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/in-defence-of-liberal-democracy-10224221.html
Seriously, it feels like this has been the 48 hours where it slipped away from ed.
I'm looking forward to a hoarde of SNP politicians coming to Westminster and bringing this energy with them. Yes, they are going to press for as many benefits from the Union to Scotland as they can get - of course they are - but this will force the E&W politicians to up their game.
The SNP will have one parliament to show that they have faith in Westminster and the Union, or else Labour will simply retake seats at the next GE. I think many of the electorate 'get' this - hence a sneaking admiration for Nicola Sturgeon. As for everyone else, apparently we were desperate to keep the Union alive - so why aren't we making the SNP feel very welcome when they come down south? Talk about having your cake and eating it...
They will do nothing for Britain and Ed will be relying on them to prop up his already clueless gang.
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Scotland is a very different place.bookseller said:
Er...the Tories went into coalition with LibDems and the LibDems will likely halve their MPs. Why wouldn't the SNP be in a similar situation if they went into coalition with Labour?TheScreamingEagles said:
I know. But long term politically it could be very damaging for Labour.ukelect said:
Not taking power would probably be disastrous. I doubt that Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair would have turned down the opportunity of power (quite rightly) if it was the will of the House of Commons, and as far as as I am aware it is up to the House of Commons to choose the government - not the newspapers, most of whom are even more unpopular than the politicians.TheScreamingEagles said:The Indy is making the point I made yesterday, if Labour finish second in terms of seats and votes takes power with the assistance of the SNP would be utterly disastrous for Labour
The political equivalent of playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun for Ed.
Plus the Lib Dems don't want to end the Union.
Plus history has shown that Lab can't trust the SNP.
1979 vote of no confidence.0 -
@MrHarryCole: Economist, FT and now Indy say no thanks to Miliband. Wounder.0
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James Forsyth @JGForsyth
1st media endorsement surprise of this election, The Independent backs the continuation of the Tory Lib Dem coalition http://ind.pn/1E1qVgt
Let's hope they have better front pages for the coalition parties,the front pages I've seen lately have been against the coalition.0 -
Scotts back with his pasteing and its good old objective Harry Cole.
You gonna be posting here Scott when Ed is PM.0 -
I see we've moved on from over-analysing polls to over-analysing polls that haven't yet come out.0
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Three days to go and I had the first candidate arrived on my doorstep today. No surprise that in North Dorset we are not in a marginal. Lib Dem chap pushing local links as opposed to the Tory who was a Oxfordshire councillor up to February and before that, a candidate in Cardiff five years ago. Hasn't gone down too well with the local bumpkins. Spent the day in Mid Dorset & North Poole and dozens of Lib Dem boards up there. Wouldn't be surprised if they hold on if Tory votes slip to UKIP.0
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No, because you and the Indy are forgetting Holyrood is up for grabs in the Scottish general election a year from now. Keep that forthcoming SLAB/SNP showdown at the back of your mind, and it becomes clear that Labour does not need to do a deal with the SNP at Westminster, because it would be disastrous for the SNP if they bring Labour down or even are seen as instrumental in returning a Conservative-led government to power. After May 2016, perhaps the gloves can come off but until then, Sturgeon's 50-odd MPs are stuck with tacitly supporting, or at least not opposing, EICIPM.TheScreamingEagles said:The Indy is making the point I made yesterday, if Labour finish second in terms of seats and votes takes power with the assistance of the SNP would be utterly disastrous for Labour
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Yes a tie for me is going to get rather awkward too.Scrapheap_as_was said:I put 50 quid in lab maj today to complete portfolio. Now in the money provided there isn't a tie between lab and Tory for most seats...
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We once over analysed a poll that didn't exist.antifrank said:I see we've moved on from over-analysing polls to over-analysing polls that haven't yet come out.
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I agree that the Indy not backing Miliband is bad, but the Economist? They were always going to back the Tories. It's a bit like being shocked the Speccie backs the Tories. The FT endorsement wasn't that surprising, either.Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: Economist, FT and now Indy say no thanks to Miliband. Wounder.
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No! But both those seats you mention are in Labour's sights. Activists being shipped in from all over.Pulpstar said:
Thats not Glamorgan or Aberconwy is it, need those two seats to stay bluevalleyboy said:Knackered after a day on the doorsteps in sunny Pembs. Should have put the lotion on!
Decent responses, Labour may just have a chance. No sign of UKIP, Lib Dem, Plaid support. Straight fight Tory/Labour.
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Nothing on its own is enough to shift votes: you get myriad causes, but only one tipping point. To me the Ed Stone marks and symbolises the tipping point; it doesn't of itself cause it. And I wouldn't expect it to shift votes from Lab to another party, I'd expect it to be a drag on the Lab vote turning out at all.The_Apocalypse said:
I doubt that Ed Stone has made that much of an impact - it's quite funny, but it's not enough to shift votes. As for the NS - they're rather vague with their inferences, and much of it appears to be based on canvassing returns rather than internal polling. The article, also in some ways rather contradicts itself; on the one hand it infers that Ashcroft polling is matching up to negative expectations, sighting Battersea and on the other hand is being over-optimistic. Personally, I see Labour being around 20 seats behind the Tories, at worse. I doubt they would have informed The Times they'll be 5-10 seats behind if they thought they were going to do that badly - after all, going into these final days much of what Labour will be doing is expectation management, as will the Conservatives.Ishmael_X said:The Ed Stone, and the NS revelation that lab think their position is worse than Ashcroft, are making me think that ed will get a really bad second place, rather than just a second place, in seats and votes, and that his hope of not doing a deal with the SNP but doing a series of deals with them is actually untenable.
The series of SNP-deals is untenable, but then again so is any of the possible governing arrangements. Cameron will need the LDs in any case to be able to govern, and it looking that it will be far harder for Clegg to convince three lots of groups - his parliamentary party, his federal executive, and his special conference of grassroots' to accept another coalition, let alone what is realistically needed - UKIP and DUP support. I simply don't see a much politically diminished Nick Clegg, whose existing red-lines are reported to not have the complete support of senior colleagues convincing LDs to sign up to that. Which gives Labour an ideal situation of either watching a Conservative minority government fail, or a Con-LD coalition (if it happens) failing. Labour can then regroup, and go into what is likely to be a second election, and by that point I'd be shocked if Clegg wasn't gone.0 -
A Con/Lab tie in Scotland will be fun and profitable.Pulpstar said:
Yes a tie for me is going to get rather awkward too.Scrapheap_as_was said:I put 50 quid in lab maj today to complete portfolio. Now in the money provided there isn't a tie between lab and Tory for most seats...
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Never bought the Bank Holiday=odd polls theory. The weighting to past voting means that the people who haven't gone on holiday but had the same 2010 political views will represent the holidaymakers. The theory only makes sense if the people who go on holiday are in some subtle way different from like-minded people who stay at home.TGOHF said:Bank Holiday + You Gov = Lab lead surely ?
I'd guess a Con+2 lead, as the Sun doesn't usually put out nudges about Labour leads.
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Hardly surprising with the first two. As for the Indy I wonder if the owner has intervened? Although the FT editorial has been pro-coalition I'm not sure any of it's leading commentators having anything good to say about the it. Janan Ganesh being the exception.Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: Economist, FT and now Indy say no thanks to Miliband. Wounder.
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Oh yes that tie would be rather good.TheScreamingEagles said:
A Con/Lab tie in Scotland will be fun and profitable.Pulpstar said:
Yes a tie for me is going to get rather awkward too.Scrapheap_as_was said:I put 50 quid in lab maj today to complete portfolio. Now in the money provided there isn't a tie between lab and Tory for most seats...
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Labour want to be in government for entirely negative policy reasons, to stop certain policies but they can't get agreement, even internally, about what to replace them with. Lib Dems want to be in government for no real reason at all. The Tories have no clue why they would like to be in government and don't seem pushed about it. The SNP, Ukip, Greens and all the rest espouse policies they'd like a government to have, but don't want to be in government. So no wonder the election is a mess.0
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I had never even considered a tie, given that I have got out of the Most Seats Market I am fully on-board a tie - that would be the greatest thing ever,Pulpstar said:
Yes a tie for me is going to get rather awkward too.Scrapheap_as_was said:I put 50 quid in lab maj today to complete portfolio. Now in the money provided there isn't a tie between lab and Tory for most seats...
Tie. Tie. Tie. Tie. Tie. Tie. Tie. Tie. Tie. Tie.0 -
*** UPDATE FOR MY FANS ***
Thankyou, thankyou, thankyou to all my fans, old a new.
Without you, I would just be another bloke posting crap on the Internet.
Thanks to you;
- commenting on every one of my posts
- commenting on every comment on every one of my posts
- commenting on every comment commenting on every comment on every one of my posts
- incessantly typing "retweet" despite not knowing what it means, or ever using it accurately in context
I make it 763 weeks consecutively as most retweeted commented on poster on the site
Some people might say what you do amounts to stalking, but compared to the original creepy stalker you guys are just pathetic, wannabe tribute acts, which is nice.
So thanks, and keep up the good work.
Ok, I need to get back to work. It's not like I can just leave a Twitter feed running waiting for interesting, apposite and amusing tweets to magically appear in my timeline...
Oh, wait...
-1 -
You are really scaring me now.TheScreamingEagles said:
We once over analysed a poll that didn't exist.antifrank said:I see we've moved on from over-analysing polls to over-analysing polls that haven't yet come out.
0 -
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Quiet! All of you!
The Dark Knight is on ITV2 0 -
Eagle
"We once over analysed a poll that didn't exist."
That's very funny!!!!!0 -
We thought we were expecting a poll and noted the delay In its publication.Prodicus said:
You are really scaring me now.TheScreamingEagles said:
We once over analysed a poll that didn't exist.antifrank said:I see we've moved on from over-analysing polls to over-analysing polls that haven't yet come out.
0 -
What about the Charlie Kennedy, Vince Cable, and Ed Davey polls that don't exist hmm :PTheScreamingEagles said:
We thought we were expecting a poll and noted the delay In its publication.Prodicus said:
You are really scaring me now.TheScreamingEagles said:
We once over analysed a poll that didn't exist.antifrank said:I see we've moved on from over-analysing polls to over-analysing polls that haven't yet come out.
0 -
...
Half of them will be incoherent numptys, lobby McFodder and the occasional bigot.
They will do nothing for Britain and Ed will be relying on them to prop up his already clueless gang.
Sounds like they should fit in just nicely with the current mainstream parties. Give it a few years and they may even have some expenses scandals and a few court appearances for a reasonable range of offences. At least the SNP MPs will be loyal to their leader, just like the other 3 parties !!0 -
Stephen Fisher has come off the fence and is in favour of a grand coalition.
"If the Tories are really worried about SNP influence, they could offer to join Labour in a grand coalition if necessary. This could diffuse economic, if not nationalist, divisions, and also lead to policy closer to the average voter. That may not benefit the Conservative election campaign, but it would arguably be the best outcome for Britain."0 -
LOLScott_P said:*** UPDATE FOR MY FANS ***
Thankyou, thankyou, thankyou to all my fans, old a new.
Without you, I would just be another bloke posting crap on the Internet.
Thanks to you;
- commenting on every one of my posts
- commenting on every comment on every one of my posts
- commenting on every comment commenting on every comment on every one of my posts
- incessantly typing "retweet" despite not knowing what it means, or ever using it accurately in context
I make it 763 weeks consecutively as most retweeted commented on poster on the site
Some people might say what you do amounts to stalking, but compared to the original creepy stalker you guys are just pathetic, wannabe tribute acts, which is nice.
So thanks, and keep up the good work.
Ok, I need to get back to work. It's not like I can just leave a Twitter feed running waiting for interesting, apposite and amusing tweets to magically appear in my timeline...
Oh, wait...0 -
most original thing you have ever said Scott0
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I was musing about this the other date. I don't think the pollsters usually weight for sociodemographic stuff, as they would only be a proxy for voting intention and/or past voting, and they can use the real thing.NickPalmer said:
Never bought the Bank Holiday=odd polls theory. The weighting to past voting means that the people who haven't gone on holiday but had the same 2010 political views will represent the holidaymakers. The theory only makes sense if the people who go on holiday are in some subtle way different from like-minded people who stay at home.TGOHF said:Bank Holiday + You Gov = Lab lead surely ?
So a theory... people who go away at bank holidays are the people with the most money to spend, in terms of disposable income. They can afford a weekend away. They might not actually be the best off in terms of income but they are the ones who can afford to spend. And maybe they are the ones most likely to vote for the Government and/or Tory, even if they voted otherwise last time - life is being good to them. Just a thought. Someone will come along in a moment and blow it out of the water,
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"Earlier today, it was revealed that Kirsten Oswald, the SNP candidate standing against Jim Murphy in East Renfrewshire, has sent out a letter to Tory voters asking them to lend their support to the SNP instead – because the SNP “understands” Conservative party values, concerns and priorities."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/may/04/election-2015-live-result-knife-edge-ken-clarke-warns-chaos-second-vote0 -
Surely you are undercooking that? A 2% Yougov lead is a 10% Tory lead in real money and a Tory landslide will ensue.Ishmael_X said:
I agree 2% con lead, and reserve the right to claim that because of YouGov's over-damping methodology that's a 5 point lead in real money.The_Apocalypse said:I think YG is a 2% Con lead (which will lead this place to explode) or a tie.
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I can't see Ed Stone having been a 'tipping point at all', nor that Labour voters will seriously consider not going out and voting because the 'stone' was the final point. Weather is much likely to be something off-putting, than that!Ishmael_X said:
Nothing on its own is enough to shift votes: you get myriad causes, but only one tipping point. To me the Ed Stone marks and symbolises the tipping point; it doesn't of itself cause it. And I wouldn't expect it to shift votes from Lab to another party, I'd expect it to be a drag on the Lab vote turning out at all.The_Apocalypse said:
I doubt that Ed Stone has made that much of an impact - it's quite funny, but it's not enough to shift votes. As for the NS - they're rather vague with their inferences, and much of it appears to be based on canvassing returns rather than internal polling. The article, also in some ways rather contradicts itself; on the one hand it infers that Ashcroft polling is matching up to negative expectations, sighting Battersea and on the other hand is being over-optimistic. Personally, I see Labour being around 20 seats behind the Tories, at worse. I doubt they would have informed The Times they'll be 5-10 seats behind if they thought they were going to do that badly - after all, going into these final days much of what Labour will be doing is expectation management, as will the Conservatives.Ishmael_X said:The Ed Stone, and the NS revelation that lab think their position is worse than Ashcroft, are making me think that ed will get a really bad second place, rather than just a second place, in seats and votes, and that his hope of not doing a deal with the SNP but doing a series of deals with them is actually untenable.
The series of SNP-deals is untenable, but then again so is any of the possible governing arrangements. Cameron will need the LDs in any case to be able to govern, and it looking that it will be far harder for Clegg to convince three lots of groups - his parliamentary party, his federal executive, and his special conference of grassroots' to accept another coalition, let alone what is realistically needed - UKIP and DUP support. I simply don't see a much politically diminished Nick Clegg, whose existing red-lines are reported to not have the complete support of senior colleagues convincing LDs to sign up to that. Which gives Labour an ideal situation of either watching a Conservative minority government fail, or a Con-LD coalition (if it happens) failing. Labour can then regroup, and go into what is likely to be a second election, and by that point I'd be shocked if Clegg wasn't gone.0 -
From your keyboard to God's inbox.compouter2 said:
Surely you are undercooking that? A 2% Yougov lead is a 10% Tory lead in real money and a Tory landslide will ensue.Ishmael_X said:
I agree 2% con lead, and reserve the right to claim that because of YouGov's over-damping methodology that's a 5 point lead in real money.The_Apocalypse said:I think YG is a 2% Con lead (which will lead this place to explode) or a tie.
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ROFLSmarmeron said:"Earlier today, it was revealed that Kirsten Oswald, the SNP candidate standing against Jim Murphy in East Renfrewshire, has sent out a letter to Tory voters asking them to lend their support to the SNP instead – because the SNP “understands” Conservative party values, concerns and priorities."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/may/04/election-2015-live-result-knife-edge-ken-clarke-warns-chaos-second-vote
I can see that for Conservative breaking up the Union and far left politics are just what they want.0 -
A Lab / Con coalition might just provide enough white, privately educated male millionaires to fill the government places without bothering about the rest.0
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Only millionaires can afford to vote Labour.Alanbrooke said:Cameron fails again.
Russell Brand , Delia Smith so much for tax cuts for millionaires !
Ed has the millionaires market sown up.
Quite. The party that brought us the lies over the Iraq war, that hounded Dr David Kelly to his death, that thought it acceptable to smear the wives of opposition politicians and that imposed a 100% tax increase on the very poorest in society when it abolished the 10p starting rate of tax is in no position to claim purely for itself (or, some might think, at all) the mantle of honesty and decency and fairness.Casino_Royale said:
I find it deeply offensive that the plethora of luvvies that Labour are rolling out think that fairness, honesty and decency are the monopoly of the Labour party.Roger said:The best PPB to date. Nothing flash just the most persuasive celebrity endorsement so far.
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/watch-steve-coogan-urges-people-9176553
I'd laugh, if it didn't make me so angry.
All these qualities are found amongst people in all parties and it is offensive and wrong for one party to claim a monopoly over these attributes.
For example, SO and DavidL on here strike me as two very decent individuals (judging from their posts) and yet they support different parties.
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My private thoughts entirely, but there's only so much the rattled lefties can take at this stage of the game.compouter2 said:
Surely you are undercooking that? A 2% Yougov lead is a 10% Tory lead in real money and a Tory landslide will ensue.Ishmael_X said:
I agree 2% con lead, and reserve the right to claim that because of YouGov's over-damping methodology that's a 5 point lead in real money.The_Apocalypse said:I think YG is a 2% Con lead (which will lead this place to explode) or a tie.
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Smarmeron Not only is that letter likely to be as effective with Renfrewshire Tories as the Guardian's 2004 letters were with Ohio swing voters, so it is also likely to infuriate the left to see any SNP links being made with the Tories0
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Stop press. Hold the front page, etc. HuffPo announce that Twitter is 'turning against the Tories'. Bless.0
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I like how your whole rant is broken up into tweet lengths give or take.Scott_P said:*** UPDATE FOR MY FANS ***
Thankyou, thankyou, thankyou to all my fans, old a new.
Without you, I would just be another bloke posting crap on the Internet.
Thanks to you;
- commenting on every one of my posts
- commenting on every comment on every one of my posts
- commenting on every comment commenting on every comment on every one of my posts
- incessantly typing "retweet" despite not knowing what it means, or ever using it accurately in context
I make it 763 weeks consecutively as most retweeted commented on poster on the site
Some people might say what you do amounts to stalking, but compared to the original creepy stalker you guys are just pathetic, wannabe tribute acts, which is nice.
So thanks, and keep up the good work.
Ok, I need to get back to work. It's not like I can just leave a Twitter feed running waiting for interesting, apposite and amusing tweets to magically appear in my timeline...
Oh, wait...
0 -
I prefer the retweetsAlanbrooke said:
LOLScott_P said:*** UPDATE FOR MY FANS ***
Thankyou, thankyou, thankyou to all my fans, old a new.
Without you, I would just be another bloke posting crap on the Internet.
Thanks to you;
- commenting on every one of my posts
- commenting on every comment on every one of my posts
- commenting on every comment commenting on every comment on every one of my posts
- incessantly typing "retweet" despite not knowing what it means, or ever using it accurately in context
I make it 763 weeks consecutively as most retweeted commented on poster on the site
Some people might say what you do amounts to stalking, but compared to the original creepy stalker you guys are just pathetic, wannabe tribute acts, which is nice.
So thanks, and keep up the good work.
Ok, I need to get back to work. It's not like I can just leave a Twitter feed running waiting for interesting, apposite and amusing tweets to magically appear in my timeline...
Oh, wait...0 -
My betting float still feels the effect of that ComRes 7% Yes lead poll that was clearly going to cataclysmically shift the market.TheScreamingEagles said:
We thought we were expecting a poll and noted the delay In its publication.Prodicus said:
You are really scaring me now.TheScreamingEagles said:
We once over analysed a poll that didn't exist.antifrank said:I see we've moved on from over-analysing polls to over-analysing polls that haven't yet come out.
0 -
On election night BBC Parliament will be showing the BBC Scotland election programme:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05vlhvc0 -
Martin Boon @martinboon 2h2 hours ago
Let's stop with the anti @LordAshcroft stuff. His techniques same as @ICMResearch +/-, & right not to name candidates until last minute.0 -
Just face it. IoS pushed some leaflets through a letter box. It's over.Ishmael_X said:
My private thoughts entirely, but there's only so much the rattled lefties can take at this stage of the game.compouter2 said:
Surely you are undercooking that? A 2% Yougov lead is a 10% Tory lead in real money and a Tory landslide will ensue.Ishmael_X said:
I agree 2% con lead, and reserve the right to claim that because of YouGov's over-damping methodology that's a 5 point lead in real money.The_Apocalypse said:I think YG is a 2% Con lead (which will lead this place to explode) or a tie.
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We haven't heard from Easteross for a while; would value his latest insights0
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36 years ago? Not just Scotland, the UK (and the world) is a very different place too...TheScreamingEagles said:
Scotland is a very different place.bookseller said:
Er...the Tories went into coalition with LibDems and the LibDems will likely halve their MPs. Why wouldn't the SNP be in a similar situation if they went into coalition with Labour?TheScreamingEagles said:
I know. But long term politically it could be very damaging for Labour.ukelect said:
Not taking power would probably be disastrous. I doubt that Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair would have turned down the opportunity of power (quite rightly) if it was the will of the House of Commons, and as far as as I am aware it is up to the House of Commons to choose the government - not the newspapers, most of whom are even more unpopular than the politicians.TheScreamingEagles said:The Indy is making the point I made yesterday, if Labour finish second in terms of seats and votes takes power with the assistance of the SNP would be utterly disastrous for Labour
The political equivalent of playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun for Ed.
Plus the Lib Dems don't want to end the Union.
Plus history has shown that Lab can't trust the SNP.
1979 vote of no confidence.
It's not so much that the SNP want to end the Union. They *can't* end the Union, or at least - they had their once-per-generation chance last year. Realpolitik does funny things to parties, and I think it's a case of "Keep your enemies closer". I'm eager to see what happens and how everyone else responds...0 -
Quite agree, it's a fuck up.HYUFD said:Smarmeron Not only is that letter likely to be as effective with Renfrewshire Tories as the Guardian's 2004 letters were with Ohio swing voters, so it is also likely to infuriate the left to see any SNP links being made with the Tories
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You are completely correct.JohnLilburne said:
I was musing about this the other date. I don't think the pollsters usually weight for sociodemographic stuff, as they would only be a proxy for voting intention and/or past voting, and they can use the real thing.NickPalmer said:
Never bought the Bank Holiday=odd polls theory. The weighting to past voting means that the people who haven't gone on holiday but had the same 2010 political views will represent the holidaymakers. The theory only makes sense if the people who go on holiday are in some subtle way different from like-minded people who stay at home.TGOHF said:Bank Holiday + You Gov = Lab lead surely ?
So a theory... people who go away at bank holidays are the people with the most money to spend, in terms of disposable income. They can afford a weekend away. They might not actually be the best off in terms of income but they are the ones who can afford to spend. And maybe they are the ones most likely to vote for the Government and/or Tory, even if they voted otherwise last time - life is being good to them. Just a thought. Someone will come along in a moment and blow it out of the water,
Contact with different demographics varies according to day of the week, time of day and holiday periods.
Working people (private sector) are the hardest to catch, while working parents are the hardest to pin down for time.
It's easy to catch pensioners, the unemployed and the economically inactive. Wealth = more holidays, more nights out etc.0 -
I'm not sure Stephen Fisher is actually stating that he is in favour of a Grand Coalition, but he is suggesting that it might prove the least worst option (rather than having to deal with the SNP) for both the major parties.Pulpstar said:Stephen Fisher has come off the fence and is in favour of a grand coalition.
"If the Tories are really worried about SNP influence, they could offer to join Labour in a grand coalition if necessary. This could diffuse economic, if not nationalist, divisions, and also lead to policy closer to the average voter. That may not benefit the Conservative election campaign, but it would arguably be the best outcome for Britain."
Personally, I only see it working over a pre-agreed short fixed period, with another GE to follow in say a year's time.
Hmm ..... that might just work and is possibly worth a fiver at 40/1 with those nice people at bet265.
DYOR0 -
The chances of a grand coalition in peacetime are slightly less than zero, something Stephen Fisher must know in his heart of hearts.0
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The Bow Group old guard (Heseltine et al) are gunning for the BG young Turks for saying 'vote UKIP in a can't-win poll'. Old'uns insist: 'Always vote Tory regardless.'0
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PfP - I have just put £10 on Clegg to be next PM at 1000-1. I am betting that there will be a grand coalition and that Ed and Dave will not agree to the other being PM - so who do they go to?0
