The New Statesman seems to think that Labour think that they're losing.
The Sunday Times reported that Labour privately expects to come "5 to 10 seats" behind the Tories. Obviously that means they also expect to lose the popular vote.
10 seats behind the Tories means that basically they've won, unless the Nats massively underperform and Lib Dems outperform.
Belfast South could get into the mix at the margins too.
If Labour loses both on seats and votes I just don't see a Labour government being viable. And many Labour MPs probably think the same.
The Nats don't look good. Their thuggish behaviour should help get the tactical voters out in the secret of the polling booths.
The Scots have always been the most thoughtful of the four nations but for some reason they think their nationalism is different and more attractive than other forms of nationalism when everyone can see it's just the same just as chauvinistic and just as ugly.
It's the Labour party or elements in it which have been organising the behaviour seen today - see previous thread. Who and why remain to be seen, but at least two newspapers' journos have picked up on the issue at least on Twitter.
Are you saying he has made it up? Presumably the individuals concerned will be demanding apologies, at the very least. The bald bloke is apparently the charming Piers Doughty Brown:
The Bow Group, one of the oldest Tory groups has urged Tories to vote tactically for UKIP in seats where the Tories aren't in contention.
I'm glad I'm part of the Tory Reform Group (and signed up to the No Turning Back Group)
You really can't do sums can you ?
If the kippers take northern seats from Labour where the Tories haven't a hope in hell of winning then Ed is toast.Makes sense
It's not even as if Cameron gives a shit about the Northern cities.
The plans for the Northern Powerhouses say otherwise.
I'm not a fan of the Kippers. They'll be like an STD. Very hard to shift once they get a seat.
It's a plan, they haven't actually done much. Other plans include reducing the deficit, rebalancing the economy and building a high speed rail system. Where once again it's all talk no action.
Make up your mind, is Ed the scariest thing ever or is it you just can't bear to work with people you don't like to keep him out ?
I could never vote for UKIP.
So I'm letting my bias show.
I mean if I wanted to vote tactically for narrow little nationalists I'd move to Scotland or Norn Iron.
The New Statesman seems to think that Labour think that they're losing.
The Sunday Times reported that Labour privately expects to come "5 to 10 seats" behind the Tories. Obviously that means they also expect to lose the popular vote.
P.S Dan Hodges....I think he should wait until Thursday night before there's egg on his face.
The Nats don't look good. Their thuggish behaviour should help get the tactical voters out in the secret of the polling booths.
The Scots have always been the most thoughtful of the four nations but for some reason they think their nationalism is different and more attractive than other forms of nationalism when everyone can see it's just the same just as chauvinistic and just as ugly.
It's the Labour party or elements in it which have been organising the behaviour seen today - see previous thread. Who and why remain to be seen, but at least two newspapers' journos have picked up on the issue at least on Twitter.
Are you saying he has made it up? Presumably the individuals concerned will be demanding apologies, at the very least. The bald bloke is apparently the charming Piers Doughty Brown:
I do love progressive, positive, friendly, inclusive civic nationalism. It's so unlike other nationalisms. .
SNP = DUP
it was the same in Ulster, the DUP would stand back and take an ambiguous approach to street thuggery, egging it on when it suited them and standing off when it didn't.
"It's the Labour party or elements in it which have been organising the behaviour seen today - see previous thread."
We've just seen it on TV. We've just seen the thugs interviewed. Why peddle such nonsense?
Because it is an inconvenient truth. Rather like the price of oil and the huge gaps in Scotland's finances, hidden by the way wealth is redistributed across the UK (just as it should be, of course).
I've put my money on there being another ConDemNation government, but the discussion in this thread is interesting and important. It would seem a bit odd, the LibDems switching horses after May 7th, since they've achieved a seemingly excellent working relationship with the Tories for 5 years, but in theory they are supposed to be politically equidistant between Con and Lab, and many of their supporters have always considered themselves centre-left. Of course the latter are those voters who have deserted them now, and if the LibDems get back into bed with the Tories they'll probably be lost for ever.
So this is a key moment for the LibDems. Do they see themselves now as a centre-right party, and they're going to rebuild on that basis? Is that possible? Is it wise? Is it conceding the centre-left to Labour? (in British terms - Labour obviously isn't really a socialist party anymore)
The second option to rebuild is to somehow go back to the way things were, learn from the mistake, such as it was, of the ConDemNation, and eschew coalitions. WIth an eye to the future and any possible introduction of PR, this would the most sensible choice; it would be a sad irony to turn the party into a narrow libertarian faction (a la FDP?) and thereby forgo the great success that PR always promised.
Switching to supporting Labour is potentially very risky. Their role in government might be quite weak - certainly weaker than it has been with the Tories - and hardly worth the entry fee. They've lost their left-leaning supporters, and if they lose their right-leaning supporters as well, they'll become the party with more MPs than electors. Or is the gamble that people will gradually get used to the coalition idea and become as pragmatic as they are?
The New Statesman seems to think that Labour think that they're losing.
The Sunday Times reported that Labour privately expects to come "5 to 10 seats" behind the Tories. Obviously that means they also expect to lose the popular vote.
P.S Dan Hodges....I think he should wait until Thursday night before there's egg on his face.
A bit late for him to be worrying about that.
I wonder if he'll feel vindicated by Friday morning? While the Tories' will have the most seats, it's unlikely they'll have a majority with LDs even if (and it's quite a big one) if such an arrangement gets LD approval. In that scenario, we are probably going to get a second election sooner or later, and Hodges will have to test his prediction again...
Are you saying he has made it up? Presumably the individuals concerned will be demanding apologies, at the very least. The bald bloke is apparently the charming Piers Doughty Brown:
I do love progressive, positive, friendly, inclusive civic nationalism. It's so unlike other nationalisms. .
No, I'm saying its desperate stuff.
Only Clerkin's behaviour is worthy of any criticism.
We live in a democracy where you have a right to protest against people like Murphy and they do not have free reign to spout their lies without challenge. Pictures of three people taken in connection with the SNP just show that the three have had pictures taken in connection with the SNP. It's irrelevant. None of those three have done ANYTHING wrong or unacceptable.
The Bow Group, one of the oldest Tory groups has urged Tories to vote tactically for UKIP in seats where the Tories aren't in contention.
I'm glad I'm part of the Tory Reform Group (and signed up to the No Turning Back Group)
You really can't do sums can you ?
If the kippers take northern seats from Labour where the Tories haven't a hope in hell of winning then Ed is toast.Makes sense
It's not even as if Cameron gives a shit about the Northern cities.
The plans for the Northern Powerhouses say otherwise.
I'm not a fan of the Kippers. They'll be like an STD. Very hard to shift once they get a seat.
It's a plan, they haven't actually done much. Other plans include reducing the deficit, rebalancing the economy and building a high speed rail system. Where once again it's all talk no action.
Make up your mind, is Ed the scariest thing ever or is it you just can't bear to work with people you don't like to keep him out ?
I could never vote for UKIP.
So I'm letting my bias show.
I mean if I wanted to vote tactically for narrow little nationalists I'd move to Scotland or Norn Iron.
Or for a Cameroon like yourself the South East of England
I doubt those voting for Clegg are tactically voting against Labour - it's far more about the overall importance Clegg plays' in terms of the Tories' coalition hopes.
If you look at the Heywood and Middleton vote, the Tory vote dropped 15 points, and UKIP surged. There must be some among them who are voting anti-Labour.
The Nats don't look good. Their thuggish behaviour should help get the tactical voters out in the secret of the polling booths.
The Scots have always been the most thoughtful of the four nations but for some reason they think their nationalism is different and more attractive than other forms of nationalism when everyone can see it's just the same just as chauvinistic and just as ugly.
It's the Labour party or elements in it which have been organising the behaviour seen today - see previous thread. Who and why remain to be seen, but at least two newspapers' journos have picked up on the issue at least on Twitter.
Unlike the pics with Salmond and Sturgeon, that pic is not something completely outside Blair McDougall's control. He's there by choice.
Piers Doughty Brown is an SNP activist. So, clearly, is the bloke with the megaphone. They are both nationalist thugs. The bloke attacking Murphy seems to be rather fond of Alec Salmond. The idea, propagated by you and other nationalists on here, that they are in cahoots with Labour is risible.
The New Statesman seems to think that Labour think that they're losing.
The Sunday Times reported that Labour privately expects to come "5 to 10 seats" behind the Tories. Obviously that means they also expect to lose the popular vote.
10 seats behind the Tories means that basically they've won, unless the Nats massively underperform and Lib Dems outperform.
Belfast South could get into the mix at the margins too.
If Labour loses both on seats and votes I just don't see a Labour government being viable. And many Labour MPs probably think the same.
Part of EICIPM is based on Labour loses both on seats and votes.
If you're ignoring the candidate and just voting for a party, why have candidates at all? This isn't tactical voting, it's just voting for who you want to represent you. Good MPs rightly earn a personal vote.
Tredinnick is someone I would cheerfully vote tactically against. The man is an embarrassment.
and the campaign in Hinckley is going very well. A 14-1 (William Hill last night) surprise is unlikely but......
I'm toying with a small wager at these odds. Probably bonkers, but I'm looking for a couple of outlier bets to liven up the darkest hours of Thursday night/Friday morning.
Are you saying he has made it up? Presumably the individuals concerned will be demanding apologies, at the very least. The bald bloke is apparently the charming Piers Doughty Brown:
I do love progressive, positive, friendly, inclusive civic nationalism. It's so unlike other nationalisms. .
No, I'm saying its desperate stuff.
Only Clerkin's behaviour is worthy of any criticism.
We live in a democracy where you have a right to protest against people like Murphy and they do not have free reign to spout their lies without challenge. Pictures of three people taken in connection with the SNP just show that the three have had pictures taken in connection with the SNP. It's irrelevant. None of those three have done ANYTHING wrong or unacceptable.
Yes, I am sure you truly believe that. It is what nationalism does to people. Only yesterday you were talking about Labour being slime that needed to be wiped out in Scotland. When you see things that way what happened today in Glasgow is perfectly acceptable. I do understand.
The New Statesman seems to think that Labour think that they're losing.
The Sunday Times reported that Labour privately expects to come "5 to 10 seats" behind the Tories. Obviously that means they also expect to lose the popular vote.
10 seats behind the Tories means that basically they've won, unless the Nats massively underperform and Lib Dems outperform.
Belfast South could get into the mix at the margins too.
If Labour loses both on seats and votes I just don't see a Labour government being viable. And many Labour MPs probably think the same.
Part of EICIPM is based on Labour loses both on seats and votes.
I thought that was the whole point of EICIPM. Labour wins seats and votes is EIGIPM and nobodies calling that!
Unlike the pics with Salmond and Sturgeon, that pic is not something completely outside Blair McDougall's control. He's there by choice.
Piers Doughty Brown is an SNP activist. So, clearly, is the bloke with the megaphone. They are both nationalist thugs. The bloke attacking Murphy seems to be rather fond of Alec Salmond. The idea, propagated by you and other nationalists on here, that they are in cahoots with Labour is risible.
Post evidence of : -
1. That Doughty Brown is a member of the SNP. 2. That any thuggish behaviour has been perpetrated by Doughty Brown or the megaphone guy.
Protesting against war criminals is still legal in this country. As is protesting against the dying husk of Scottish Labour. It is not a crime in any way and nothing Doughty Brown or megaphone guy or Scottish Resistance guy have done is wrong.
I never said they were in cahoots with Labour. I said and they have stated, it is East Renfrewshire PLC who is telling them where Murphy will be.
Are you saying he has made it up? Presumably the individuals concerned will be demanding apologies, at the very least. The bald bloke is apparently the charming Piers Doughty Brown:
I do love progressive, positive, friendly, inclusive civic nationalism. It's so unlike other nationalisms. .
No, I'm saying its desperate stuff.
Only Clerkin's behaviour is worthy of any criticism.
We live in a democracy where you have a right to protest against people like Murphy and they do not have free reign to spout their lies without challenge. Pictures of three people taken in connection with the SNP just show that the three have had pictures taken in connection with the SNP. It's irrelevant. None of those three have done ANYTHING wrong or unacceptable.
Good luck to them all in Scotland but I did have to laugh at Eddie Izzard (and not in the way I have done many times when seeing him on stage), when, upon being told that the protesters included anarchists, he countered, winningly, if a bit desperately: but it's democracy.
FB Depends if the Tories are largest party and Tories + LD +DUP + maybe UKIP = 326 or more Cameron almost certainly stays PM
They's surely need 330 MPs to be stable. If Labour plus celtic nationalist = 320 or above I can't see a Tory led government being stable unless a group of Labour MPs get behind Cameron.
I've put my money on there being another ConDemNation government, but the discussion in this thread is interesting and important. It would seem a bit odd, the LibDems switching horses after May 7th, since they've achieved a seemingly excellent working relationship with the Tories for 5 years, but in theory they are supposed to be politically equidistant between Con and Lab, and many of their supporters have always considered themselves centre-left. Of course the latter are those voters who have deserted them now, and if the LibDems get back into bed with the Tories they'll probably be lost for ever.....
I'd question that the remaining LDs are 'right-leaning' - going on that, it seems very odd that both the The Guardian and The Times have reported on series LD reluctance - within all levels of the party - at renewing the coalition for a second time. I'd say their grassroots base, and most of their MPs are still pretty centre-left. The Orange Booker gang, of Clegg, Laws and Alexander are the exception to rule within the LDs, even now. I think the trouble with the LDs, is that there only option is to really try to return to being a centre-left party. They have tried, in these last five years to position themselves towards the centre of British politics, with a differentiation strategy employed to give the LDs some kind of identity to voters, and that has failed. They have lost members, councilors, and popular support in the polls in large numbers - and are set to lose MPs by the same scale, too.
As for the LDs moving to the centre-right - that seems fairly impossible, if they want to be successful. It seems as though UKIP have successfully occupied the ground as a second centre-right party, and it certainly doesn't seem that the LDs could be electorally successful from the centre-right as a pro-EU party, who is fairly liberal on crime and immigration, as well as socially liberal. Much that ground is occupied by other parties - pro-EU by left of centre-parties', social liberalism by other centre-left, and indeed also partly by Cameron's Conservatives. Arguably, if you're looking for a socially liberal but economically centre-right party, that is what Cameron has attempted to morph his party into.
I think the best option for the LDs, is opposition - although a LD-Lab coalition may go someway to restoring their old reputation, and with Farron as LD leader rather than Clegg, I can't see LD influence being too limited. But the LDs desperately need to re-establish themselves as a credible force, because many voters don't know what they exactly stand for these days.
Are you saying he has made it up? Presumably the individuals concerned will be demanding apologies, at the very least. The bald bloke is apparently the charming Piers Doughty Brown:
I do love progressive, positive, friendly, inclusive civic nationalism. It's so unlike other nationalisms. .
No, I'm saying its desperate stuff.
Only Clerkin's behaviour is worthy of any criticism.
We live in a democracy where you have a right to protest against people like Murphy and they do not have free reign to spout their lies without challenge. Pictures of three people taken in connection with the SNP just show that the three have had pictures taken in connection with the SNP. It's irrelevant. None of those three have done ANYTHING wrong or unacceptable.
Yes, I am sure you truly believe that. It is what nationalism does to people. Only yesterday you were talking about Labour being slime that needed to be wiped out in Scotland. When you see things that way what happened today in Glasgow is perfectly acceptable. I do understand.
The only thing was that an angry, failing politician went out in St Enoch's Square to yell at passing members of the public and some of those members of the public protested against him.
I doubt those voting for Clegg are tactically voting against Labour - it's far more about the overall importance Clegg plays' in terms of the Tories' coalition hopes.
If you look at the Heywood and Middleton vote, the Tory vote dropped 15 points, and UKIP surged. There must be some among them who are voting anti-Labour.
I doubt it's that much, though. It's probably a simple Tory-UKIP shift, which has occured (to a degree) in the national polls.
Tredinnick is someone I would cheerfully vote tactically against. The man is an embarrassment.
and the campaign in Hinckley is going very well. A 14-1 (William Hill last night) surprise is unlikely but......
I'm toying with a small wager at these odds. Probably bonkers, but I'm looking for a couple of outlier bets to liven up the darkest hours of Thursday night/Friday morning.
Shadsy has 16/1. I have just had a nibble to keep it interesting.
@patrickwintour: Labour may look for coalition with LDs if it cannot form a majority government on own, says BBC. BBC set to disclose election date next.
You mean the breakaway splinter group ?
Breakway splinter group? You mean the Blairites? I thought they'd all been run to ground now.
This two stage question is utter nonsense. The second question "and now turning to you own constituency" is the equivalent to saying "right lets see how bright or thick you are, do you know what's going on in your own constituency" of course peeps are going to give a different answer they don't want to appear uninformed. And any one who think naming the MP/candidates is anymore accurate is utterly deluded. Virtually no-one knows the name of their MP and the candidates ROFL.
If that were the case, you would see people change their minds in non LD constituencies. They do not.
Look at every single Ashcroft poll: the significant shift between Q1 and Q2 happens only in LibDem constituencies, and only in some of them. So, in Cambridge, you see the Conservative vote almost halve between Q1 and Q2, and to the LibDems benefit.
Now, you can deride it all you like, as somehow persuading people to change their minds. But if it simply was a reprompt that encouraged people to reappraise, and therefore got a false result, then it would happen in a great many seats. And it does not.
OK so firstly I agree there are exceptions well known figures like Clegg and particularly active MPs. On that I concede.
But they do change their mind in non Lib Dem constituencies, that is the whole theme of this stupid "it's different in the marginals" stuff.
Go on then: give me the URL of the Ashcroft poll which proves your point
give me half an hour I need to take the dog for a walk....
Dear Mr RCS 1000
This URL proves my point and not surprisingly I didn't have to look hard it was the first one I came across. Con - Lab marginals
Should this ICM Hallam named poll prove to be accurate, as indeed I believe it will be, it will indicate what a missed opportunity the Ashcroft constituency polls have been.
PBers would do well to assess which constituencies would also likely provide a bounce for notable named candidates and seek some value in those seats.
Are you saying he has made it up? Presumably the individuals concerned will be demanding apologies, at the very least. The bald bloke is apparently the charming Piers Doughty Brown:
I do love progressive, positive, friendly, inclusive civic nationalism. It's so unlike other nationalisms. .
No, I'm saying its desperate stuff.
Only Clerkin's behaviour is worthy of any criticism.
We live in a democracy where you have a right to protest against people like Murphy and they do not have free reign to spout their lies without challenge. Pictures of three people taken in connection with the SNP just show that the three have had pictures taken in connection with the SNP. It's irrelevant. None of those three have done ANYTHING wrong or unacceptable.
Good luck to them all in Scotland but I did have to laugh at Eddie Izzard (and not in the way I have done many times when seeing him on stage), when, upon being told that the protesters included anarchists, he countered, winningly, if a bit desperately: but it's democracy.
Um no, they are anarchists.
Some of the SNP campaigning for Yes was a bit er strong. I can see why No voters kept quiet. I will not be surprised if there are a few SLABers "nursing their wrath to keep it warm" and getting their revenge in the polling booth.
Are you saying he has made it up? Presumably the individuals concerned will be demanding apologies, at the very least. The bald bloke is apparently the charming Piers Doughty Brown:
I do love progressive, positive, friendly, inclusive civic nationalism. It's so unlike other nationalisms. .
No, I'm saying its desperate stuff.
Only Clerkin's behaviour is worthy of any criticism.
We live in a democracy where you have a right to protest against people like Murphy and they do not have free reign to spout their lies without challenge. Pictures of three people taken in connection with the SNP just show that the three have had pictures taken in connection with the SNP. It's irrelevant. None of those three have done ANYTHING wrong or unacceptable.
Yes, I am sure you truly believe that. It is what nationalism does to people. Only yesterday you were talking about Labour being slime that needed to be wiped out in Scotland. When you see things that way what happened today in Glasgow is perfectly acceptable. I do understand.
The only thing was that an angry, failing politician went out in St Enoch's Square to yell at passing members of the public and some of those members of the public protested against him.
Nothing bad happened.
I accept you genuinely believe that. I understand that for a fundamentalist such as yourself nothing bad can ever be done in the name of Scottish nationalism.
Just checked with USPS, looks like my postal ballot won't make it in time for polling day, which is a bummer. I should have flown back and cast it in person, or nominated a proxy. Oh well, live and learn.
Why would the lib Dems go into coalition with labour, they lost half or more of their support by goiing with the tories so to get into bed with labour will risk the rest, opposition or join up with the Tories are the only options
Polls still suggesting the anti-Tory parties will get about 320 MPs. Hard to see Cameron surviving on those numbers.
Will the Blairite 5th column come to his rescue?
Your maths is a bit awry old bean. if the anti tories get 320 the then by definition the pro tories get 320 the difference of course being made up of Sinn Fein 10 mps whom I assume would abstain.= a draw Now that would be funny.
Polls still suggesting the anti-Tory parties will get about 320 MPs. Hard to see Cameron surviving on those numbers.
Will the Blairite 5th column come to his rescue?
Your maths is a bit awry old bean. if the anti tories get 320 the then by definition the pro tories get 320 the difference of course being made up of Sinn Fein 10 mps whom I assume would abstain.= a draw Now that would be funny.
Just checked with USPS, looks like my postal ballot won't make it in time for polling day, which is a bummer. I should have flown back and cast it in person, or nominated a proxy. Oh well, live and learn.
My brother in Boston, MA didn't receive his postal vote until a few days ago which was a lot later than he was expecting. Had to send it back by the fastest available service to ensure it gets there in time.
Just checked with USPS, looks like my postal ballot won't make it in time for polling day, which is a bummer. I should have flown back and cast it in person, or nominated a proxy. Oh well, live and learn.
My brother in Boston, MA didn't receive his postal vote until a few days ago which was a lot later than he was expecting. Had to send it back by the fastest available service to ensure it gets there in time.
Yeah, I didn't use a priority service since I sent it just under a fortnight prior to polling day. Still not enough time apparently.
I've been up to Nottingham and Rushcliffe today. After a couple of hours I turned the radio on and they were talking about the election and I realised I hadn't seen a single election poster or anything. After several hours, still almost nothing. One of the reasons that the need for PR is so urgent is that the country has polarised alarmingly between The Marginals and The Rest. Twenty years ago the whole country showed strong evidence that an election was going on; these days the voters in non-marginals still have The Vote, but that's the limit of their democratic offer.
Polls still suggesting the anti-Tory parties will get about 320 MPs. Hard to see Cameron surviving on those numbers.
Will the Blairite 5th column come to his rescue?
Your maths is a bit awry old bean. if the anti tories get 320 the then by definition the pro tories get 320 the difference of course being made up of Sinn Fein 10 mps whom I assume would abstain.= a draw Now that would be funny.
Which 10 Seats are Sinn Fein going to win?
WELL there are the 5 Sinn Fein Mps, The 3 SDLP MPs, an independent and an alliance type.....
Eff me the Indy are endorsing the coalition (I think)
A hung parliament is certain this week. For all his talk of no deals with the SNP, Miliband is bound to rely on that party to get his legislative programme through. This would be a disaster for the country, unleashing justified fury in England at the decisive influence of MPs who – unlike this title – do not wish the Union to exist. If that were to be the case while Labour were the second biggest party either in terms of vote share, or seats – or both – how could Labour govern with authority? They could not. Any partnership between Labour and the SNP will harm Britain’s fragile democracy. For all its faults, another Lib-Con Coalition would both prolong recovery and give our kingdom a better chance of continued existence.
This title casts no vote. But we prize strong, effective government, consider nationalism guilty until proven innocent, and say that if the present Coalition is to get another chance, we hope it is much less conservative, and much more liberal.
If turnout in Scotland rises by say 10 points from 64 to 74% it would mean the Labour vote won't seem as if it's collapsing in terms of raw numbers because most of the new voters will be voting SNP. Could be a bit confusing on election night if so.
I've put my money on there being another ConDemNation government, but the discussion in this thread is interesting and important. It would seem a bit odd, the LibDems switching horses after May 7th, since they've achieved a seemingly excellent working relationship with the Tories for 5 years, but in theory they are supposed to be politically equidistant between Con and Lab, and many of their supporters have always considered themselves centre-left. Of course the latter are those voters who have deserted them now, and if the LibDems get back into bed with the Tories they'll probably be lost for ever.....
I'd question that the remaining LDs are 'right-leaning' - going on that, it seems very odd that both the The Guardian and The Times have reported on series LD reluctance - within all levels of the party - at renewing the coalition for a second time. I'd say their grassroots base, and most of their MPs are still pretty centre-left. The Orange Booker gang, of Clegg, Laws and Alexander are the exception to rule within the LDs, even now. I think the trouble with the LDs, is that there only option is to really try to return to being a centre-left party. They have tried, in these last five years to position themselves towards the centre of British politics, with a differentiation strategy employed to give the LDs some kind of identity to voters, and that has failed. They have lost members, councilors, and popular support in the polls in large numbers - and are set to lose MPs by the same scale, too.
As for the LDs moving to the centre-right - that seems fairly impossible, if they want to be successful. It seems as though UKIP have successfully occupied the ground as a second centre-right party, and it certainly doesn't seem that the LDs could be electorally successful from the centre-right as a pro-EU party, who is fairly liberal on crime and immigration, as well as socially liberal. Much that ground is occupied by other parties - pro-EU by left of centre-parties', social liberalism by other centre-left, and indeed also partly by Cameron's Conservatives. Arguably, if you're looking for a socially liberal but economically centre-right party, that is what Cameron has attempted to morph his party into.
Of course I agree but as far as voters are concerned it's a matter of perception and how they're seen in practice. The Coalition Agreement was very one-sided (understandably given the balance of the parties) and has given the simple and factual impression that LibDems support Tories.
JackW Ashcroft also asked those polled to consider their own constituencies, I would expect the majority of his results to be pretty accurate
Certainly more accurate than a basic voting intention poll but it's a neither fish nor fowl option.
Not naming constituency candidates weeks before an election is second best and IMO a significant and avoidable weakness in such a considerable operation.
if the present Coalition is to get another chance, we hope it is much less conservative, and much more liberal
That was kind of what I was hoping for last time. I cannot see a repeat being more liberal given even fewer numbers from the LDs (not that I think they'll get the chance), although paradoxically, given the Tories will have fewer seats and will need every one of the LD ones to pass anything (at present small rebellions could be tolerated on both sides), perhaps they would actually have more influence with less of the seats.
Eff me the Indy are endorsing the coalition (I think)
A hung parliament is certain this week. For all his talk of no deals with the SNP, Miliband is bound to rely on that party to get his legislative programme through. This would be a disaster for the country, unleashing justified fury in England at the decisive influence of MPs who – unlike this title – do not wish the Union to exist. If that were to be the case while Labour were the second biggest party either in terms of vote share, or seats – or both – how could Labour govern with authority? They could not. Any partnership between Labour and the SNP will harm Britain’s fragile democracy. For all its faults, another Lib-Con Coalition would both prolong recovery and give our kingdom a better chance of continued existence.
This title casts no vote. But we prize strong, effective government, consider nationalism guilty until proven innocent, and say that if the present Coalition is to get another chance, we hope it is much less conservative, and much more liberal.
That looks like a LibDem endorsement to me. Good on The Independent for not letting its preferences get in the way of its news coverage. It's probably the only newspaper to have managed that.
Staggers (not my usual reading matter), attacking the SNP as anti-progressive:
'With the creation of a single national police force, the routine use of armed response units, a stop and search rate four times higher than the rest of the UK and plans to create an integrated ID database, the SNP has strayed into areas that even Tony Blair’s Home Secretaries backed away from. A new ‘named person’ law will create an army of state employed snoopers with a right to pry into the affairs of every family. The party has also taken a lurch towards democratic centralism with a new gagging rule that obliges its MPs to "accept that no member shall within or outwith the parliament publicly criticise a group decision, policy or another member of the group".'
Eff me the Indy are endorsing the coalition (I think)
A hung parliament is certain this week. For all his talk of no deals with the SNP, Miliband is bound to rely on that party to get his legislative programme through. This would be a disaster for the country, unleashing justified fury in England at the decisive influence of MPs who – unlike this title – do not wish the Union to exist. If that were to be the case while Labour were the second biggest party either in terms of vote share, or seats – or both – how could Labour govern with authority? They could not. Any partnership between Labour and the SNP will harm Britain’s fragile democracy. For all its faults, another Lib-Con Coalition would both prolong recovery and give our kingdom a better chance of continued existence.
This title casts no vote. But we prize strong, effective government, consider nationalism guilty until proven innocent, and say that if the present Coalition is to get another chance, we hope it is much less conservative, and much more liberal.
Eff me the Indy are endorsing the coalition (I think)
A hung parliament is certain this week. For all his talk of no deals with the SNP, Miliband is bound to rely on that party to get his legislative programme through. This would be a disaster for the country, unleashing justified fury in England at the decisive influence of MPs who – unlike this title – do not wish the Union to exist. If that were to be the case while Labour were the second biggest party either in terms of vote share, or seats – or both – how could Labour govern with authority? They could not. Any partnership between Labour and the SNP will harm Britain’s fragile democracy. For all its faults, another Lib-Con Coalition would both prolong recovery and give our kingdom a better chance of continued existence.
This title casts no vote. But we prize strong, effective government, consider nationalism guilty until proven innocent, and say that if the present Coalition is to get another chance, we hope it is much less conservative, and much more liberal.
If turnout in Scotland rises by say 10 points from 64 to 74% it would mean the Labour vote won't seem as if it's collapsing in terms of raw numbers because most of the new voters will be voting SNP. Could be a bit confusing on election night if so.
Scottish turnout is definitely a bit confusing at to what it means - for instance if it is ~ 80% it could mean a decent night for SLAB somewhat counterintuitively.
I've been up to Nottingham and Rushcliffe today. After a couple of hours I turned the radio on and they were talking about the election and I realised I hadn't seen a single election poster or anything. After several hours, still almost nothing. One of the reasons that the need for PR is so urgent is that the country has polarised alarmingly between The Marginals and The Rest. Twenty years ago the whole country showed strong evidence that an election was going on; these days the voters in non-marginals still have The Vote, but that's the limit of their democratic offer.
The number of marginals has halved in 60 years, leading to
i) an increased chance of a hung parliament ii) fewer and fewer voters having an influence over the result iii) regional polarisation
I've put my money on there being another ConDemNation government, but the discussion in this thread is interesting and important. It would seem a bit odd, the LibDems switching horses after May 7th, since they've achieved a seemingly excellent working relationship with the Tories for 5 years, but in theory they are supposed to be politically equidistant between Con and Lab, and many of their supporters have always considered themselves centre-left. Of course the latter are those voters who have deserted them now, and if the LibDems get back into bed with the Tories they'll probably be lost for ever.....
I'd say their grassroots base, and most of their MPs are still pretty centre-left. The Orange Booker gang, of Clegg, Laws and Alexander are the exception to rule within the LDs, even now. I think the trouble with the LDs, is that there only option is to really try to return to being a centre-left party. They have tried, in these last five years to position themselves towards the centre of British politics, with a differentiation strategy employed to give the LDs some kind of identity to voters, and that has failed. They have lost members, councilors, and popular support in the polls in large numbers - and are set to lose MPs by the same scale, too.
As for the LDs moving to the centre-right - that seems fairly impossible, if they want to be successful. It seems as though UKIP have successfully occupied the ground as a second centre-right party, and it certainly doesn't seem that the LDs could be electorally successful from the centre-right as a pro-EU party, who is fairly liberal on crime and immigration, as well as socially liberal. Much that ground is occupied by other parties - pro-EU by left of centre-parties', social liberalism by other centre-left, and indeed also partly by Cameron's Conservatives. Arguably, if you're looking for a socially liberal but economically centre-right party, that is what Cameron has attempted to morph his party into.
Of course I agree but as far as voters are concerned it's a matter of perception and how they're seen in practice. The Coalition Agreement was very one-sided (understandably given the balance of the parties) and has given the simple and factual impression that LibDems support Tories.
Not sure that's true - they got a fair deal, it's just most of their political reform initiatives failed which they'd clearly traded heavily for with the Conservatives:
Eff me the Indy are endorsing the coalition (I think)
But we prize strong, effective government, consider nationalism guilty until proven innocent, and say that if the present Coalition is to get another chance, we hope it is much less conservative, and much more liberal.
The Nats don't look good. Their thuggish behaviour should help get the tactical voters out in the secret of the polling booths.
The Scots have always been the most thoughtful of the four nations but for some reason they think their nationalism is different and more attractive than other forms of nationalism when everyone can see it's just the same just as chauvinistic and just as ugly.
It's the Labour party or elements in it which have been organising the behaviour seen today - see previous thread. Who and why remain to be seen, but at least two newspapers' journos have picked up on the issue at least on Twitter.
"It's the Labour party or elements in it which have been organising the behaviour seen today - see previous thread."
We've just seen it on TV. We've just seen the thugs interviewed. Why peddle such nonsense?
Because journalists on pro-union newspapers are saying on Twitter it is elements of Mr Murphy's branch who are organising this behaviour by feeding the dates and times of events to the (very few) people involved. Which is very interesting. I'll be interested to see how this story develops.
Eff me the Indy are endorsing the coalition (I think)
A hung parliament is certain this week. For all his talk of no deals with the SNP, Miliband is bound to rely on that party to get his legislative programme through. This would be a disaster for the country, unleashing justified fury in England at the decisive influence of MPs who – unlike this title – do not wish the Union to exist. If that were to be the case while Labour were the second biggest party either in terms of vote share, or seats – or both – how could Labour govern with authority? They could not. Any partnership between Labour and the SNP will harm Britain’s fragile democracy. For all its faults, another Lib-Con Coalition would both prolong recovery and give our kingdom a better chance of continued existence.
This title casts no vote. But we prize strong, effective government, consider nationalism guilty until proven innocent, and say that if the present Coalition is to get another chance, we hope it is much less conservative, and much more liberal.
Polls still suggesting the anti-Tory parties will get about 320 MPs. Hard to see Cameron surviving on those numbers.
Will the Blairite 5th column come to his rescue?
Your maths is a bit awry old bean. if the anti tories get 320 the then by definition the pro tories get 320 the difference of course being made up of Sinn Fein 10 mps whom I assume would abstain.= a draw Now that would be funny.
Which 10 Seats are Sinn Fein going to win?
WELL there are the 5 Sinn Fein Mps, The 3 SDLP MPs, an independent and an alliance type.....
I concede
The SDLP MPs would normally vote with Labour, the Alliance and the independent could be persuaded to back a Con/Lib-Dem coalition on most issues. There is a Unionist pact to a) Stop Sinn Fein winning Belfast North - The DUP is the only Unionist candidate there and b) Try to deprive them of Fermanagh and South Tyrone where the UPP is the only Unionist candidate. These are two of only three seats where there is no Conservative candidate, the other is Buckingham the seat of the Speaker, who does not vote in Common's divisions did you account for him?
Con 289 Lab 259 LD 24 DUP 9 SNP 51 UKIP 3 Others 15
Basically the same, except I gift a further 7 x Con/Lab marginals into the Con column. I'm also slightly more pessimistic about the chances for the LDs.
Eff me the Indy are endorsing the coalition (I think)
A hung parliament is certain this week. For all his talk of no deals with the SNP, Miliband is bound to rely on that party to get his legislative programme through. This would be a disaster for the country, unleashing justified fury in England at the decisive influence of MPs who – unlike this title – do not wish the Union to exist. If that were to be the case while Labour were the second biggest party either in terms of vote share, or seats – or both – how could Labour govern with authority? They could not. Any partnership between Labour and the SNP will harm Britain’s fragile democracy. For all its faults, another Lib-Con Coalition would both prolong recovery and give our kingdom a better chance of continued existence.
This title casts no vote. But we prize strong, effective government, consider nationalism guilty until proven innocent, and say that if the present Coalition is to get another chance, we hope it is much less conservative, and much more liberal.
Seriously, it feels like this has been the 48 hours where it slipped away from ed.
There is zero chance of the coalition becoming much less conservative and much more liberal. The ratio of MPs would be more like 10:1 rather than 5:1. I think that change in ratio is the most under-discussed thing about the post-election shenanigans.
Eff me the Indy are endorsing the coalition (I think)
A hung parliament is certain this week. For all his talk of no deals with the SNP, Miliband is bound to rely on that party to get his legislative programme through. This would be a disaster for the country, unleashing justified fury in England at the decisive influence of MPs who – unlike this title – do not wish the Union to exist. If that were to be the case while Labour were the second biggest party either in terms of vote share, or seats – or both – how could Labour govern with authority? They could not. Any partnership between Labour and the SNP will harm Britain’s fragile democracy. For all its faults, another Lib-Con Coalition would both prolong recovery and give our kingdom a better chance of continued existence.
This title casts no vote. But we prize strong, effective government, consider nationalism guilty until proven innocent, and say that if the present Coalition is to get another chance, we hope it is much less conservative, and much more liberal.
Polls still suggesting the anti-Tory parties will get about 320 MPs. Hard to see Cameron surviving on those numbers.
Will the Blairite 5th column come to his rescue?
Your maths is a bit awry old bean. if the anti tories get 320 the then by definition the pro tories get 320 the difference of course being made up of Sinn Fein 10 mps whom I assume would abstain.= a draw Now that would be funny.
Which 10 Seats are Sinn Fein going to win?
WELL there are the 5 Sinn Fein Mps, The 3 SDLP MPs, an independent and an alliance type.....
I concede
The SDLP MPs would normally vote with Labour, the Alliance and the independent could be persuaded to back a Con/Lib-Dem coalition on most issues.
Labour can't do any deals with the SDLP any more.
They have ruled out working with any party that wants to see the UK broken up.
The Indy is making the point I made yesterday, if Labour finish second in terms of seats and votes takes power with the assistance of the SNP would be utterly disastrous for Labour
Comments
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11529177/The-bullying-behind-the-SNPs-smiles.html
I do love progressive, positive, friendly, inclusive civic nationalism. It's so unlike other nationalisms. .
So I'm letting my bias show.
I mean if I wanted to vote tactically for narrow little nationalists I'd move to Scotland or Norn Iron.
it was the same in Ulster, the DUP would stand back and take an ambiguous approach to street thuggery, egging it on when it suited them and standing off when it didn't.
She's droning on again on a debate on London Live - a channel I didn't even know I had until just now. Clobbered by Mark Reckless is never good.
So this is a key moment for the LibDems. Do they see themselves now as a centre-right party, and they're going to rebuild on that basis? Is that possible? Is it wise? Is it conceding the centre-left to Labour? (in British terms - Labour obviously isn't really a socialist party anymore)
The second option to rebuild is to somehow go back to the way things were, learn from the mistake, such as it was, of the ConDemNation, and eschew coalitions. WIth an eye to the future and any possible introduction of PR, this would the most sensible choice; it would be a sad irony to turn the party into a narrow libertarian faction (a la FDP?) and thereby forgo the great success that PR always promised.
Switching to supporting Labour is potentially very risky. Their role in government might be quite weak - certainly weaker than it has been with the Tories - and hardly worth the entry fee. They've lost their left-leaning supporters, and if they lose their right-leaning supporters as well, they'll become the party with more MPs than electors. Or is the gamble that people will gradually get used to the coalition idea and become as pragmatic as they are?
Only Clerkin's behaviour is worthy of any criticism.
We live in a democracy where you have a right to protest against people like Murphy and they do not have free reign to spout their lies without challenge. Pictures of three people taken in connection with the SNP just show that the three have had pictures taken in connection with the SNP. It's irrelevant. None of those three have done ANYTHING wrong or unacceptable.
Will the Blairite 5th column come to his rescue?
Some fool is going through the Scottish pages on UKPR predicting that Labour will hold most of their seats:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/motherwellandwishaw/#comments
1. That Doughty Brown is a member of the SNP.
2. That any thuggish behaviour has been perpetrated by Doughty Brown or the megaphone guy.
Protesting against war criminals is still legal in this country. As is protesting against the dying husk of Scottish Labour. It is not a crime in any way and nothing Doughty Brown or megaphone guy or Scottish Resistance guy have done is wrong.
I never said they were in cahoots with Labour. I said and they have stated, it is East Renfrewshire PLC who is telling them where Murphy will be.
Um no, they are anarchists.
As for the LDs moving to the centre-right - that seems fairly impossible, if they want to be successful. It seems as though UKIP have successfully occupied the ground as a second centre-right party, and it certainly doesn't seem that the LDs could be electorally successful from the centre-right as a pro-EU party, who is fairly liberal on crime and immigration, as well as socially liberal. Much that ground is occupied by other parties - pro-EU by left of centre-parties', social liberalism by other centre-left, and indeed also partly by Cameron's Conservatives. Arguably, if you're looking for a socially liberal but economically centre-right party, that is what Cameron has attempted to morph his party into.
I think the best option for the LDs, is opposition - although a LD-Lab coalition may go someway to restoring their old reputation, and with Farron as LD leader rather than Clegg, I can't see LD influence being too limited. But the LDs desperately need to re-establish themselves as a credible force, because many voters don't know what they exactly stand for these days.
Nothing bad happened.
France's Front National suspends founder Jean-Marie Le Pen over inflammatory remarks
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32585531
http://m.adelaidenow.com.au/news/gillard-and-abbott-run-protest-gauntlet/story-e6frea6u-1226254435221
Step forward, Murphy campaign manager John McTernan.
This URL proves my point and not surprisingly I didn't have to look hard it was the first one I came across. Con - Lab marginals
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/more-conservative-labour-marginals/
Two stage question is Boll@cks and sadly reflects the sad little world many on this site live in.
PBers would do well to assess which constituencies would also likely provide a bounce for notable named candidates and seek some value in those seats.
Now that would be funny.
777 minutes
............................................................
The SUPER ARSE eve of poll has been advanced one hour to 9:00pm on Wednesday.
Take the prisoner down ....
https://twitter.com/Gux7McGuckin/status/595304177737273344
I concede
A hung parliament is certain this week. For all his talk of no deals with the SNP, Miliband is bound to rely on that party to get his legislative programme through. This would be a disaster for the country, unleashing justified fury in England at the decisive influence of MPs who – unlike this title – do not wish the Union to exist. If that were to be the case while Labour were the second biggest party either in terms of vote share, or seats – or both – how could Labour govern with authority? They could not. Any partnership between Labour and the SNP will harm Britain’s fragile democracy. For all its faults, another Lib-Con Coalition would both prolong recovery and give our kingdom a better chance of continued existence.
This title casts no vote. But we prize strong, effective government, consider nationalism guilty until proven innocent, and say that if the present Coalition is to get another chance, we hope it is much less conservative, and much more liberal.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/in-defence-of-liberal-democracy-10224221.html
Not naming constituency candidates weeks before an election is second best and IMO a significant and avoidable weakness in such a considerable operation.
Edit: unless it was a choice of them or Labour, in which case Simon Hughes might come into play. Maybe.
No chance.
That was kind of what I was hoping for last time. I cannot see a repeat being more liberal given even fewer numbers from the LDs (not that I think they'll get the chance), although paradoxically, given the Tories will have fewer seats and will need every one of the LD ones to pass anything (at present small rebellions could be tolerated on both sides), perhaps they would actually have more influence with less of the seats.
How many seats are you expecting Labour to gain from the Tories?
'With the creation of a single national police force, the routine use of armed response units, a stop and search rate four times higher than the rest of the UK and plans to create an integrated ID database, the SNP has strayed into areas that even Tony Blair’s Home Secretaries backed away from. A new ‘named person’ law will create an army of state employed snoopers with a right to pry into the affairs of every family. The party has also taken a lurch towards democratic centralism with a new gagging rule that obliges its MPs to "accept that no member shall within or outwith the parliament publicly criticise a group decision, policy or another member of the group".'
Well, stap me, as Anthony Aloysius would say.
Seriously, it feels like this has been the 48 hours where it slipped away from ed.
TCTC seats will be called :
TCTC Party - Indicating which party is ahead but by fewer than 500 votes.
i) an increased chance of a hung parliament
ii) fewer and fewer voters having an influence over the result
iii) regional polarisation
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8619630.stm
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/78977/coalition_programme_for_government.pdf
The difference is that 1.5 million Kippers will have been replaced by 1.5 million 2010 Lib Dem and Labour voters.
There is a Unionist pact to a) Stop Sinn Fein winning Belfast North - The DUP is the only Unionist candidate there and b) Try to deprive them of Fermanagh and South Tyrone where the UPP is the only Unionist candidate.
These are two of only three seats where there is no Conservative candidate, the other is Buckingham the seat of the Speaker, who does not vote in Common's divisions did you account for him?
https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2015/04/26/picking-the-players-our-next-government/
Con 289
Lab 259
LD 24
DUP 9
SNP 51
UKIP 3
Others 15
Basically the same, except I gift a further 7 x Con/Lab marginals into the Con column. I'm also slightly more pessimistic about the chances for the LDs.
They have ruled out working with any party that wants to see the UK broken up.