politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM phone poll naming Clegg has him holding Sheffield Halla
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM phone poll naming Clegg has him holding Sheffield Hallam thanks to tactical Tory voters
Nick Clegg is on course to be saved from defeat in his Sheffield Hallam constituency by a tide of tactical Tory votes, according to a special Guardian/ICM poll conducted in the deputy prime minister’s constituency.
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I was going to vote tactically in Dundee West for a while. It is not easy and some of these tories will change their minds. I think this will be very close but with Nick holding on.
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/watch-steve-coogan-urges-people-9176553
Note: Backing Clegg.
They wouldn't bother if they didn't think it was in play. There's 3/1 still available with 888sport and Unibet. Looks like value to me.
As for the poll - interesting to know whether it will cost the Libs seats the lack of differentiation that Clegg has done presumably to help keep any Tory Tactical voters.
Breitbart has a rehashed version of the 'labour vote in freefall in marginals' story, FWIW.
But there are seats to be lost in the midlands and London and I personally wish the Tories were paying more attention there. Every seat lost to Labour counts double in the largest party game.
I wonder if Clegg might be a special case? Very high profile name, with a lot of national attention from both sides, a huge amount of effort going on locally, with a lot of relentless tactical targeting of Tory voters by the LDs. Tory voters who know full well the consequences of letting Labour win instead.
I expect *some* similar effect might be present in most marginals with first-time incumbent MPs. But not to the same extent.
Russell Brand , Delia Smith so much for tax cuts for millionaires !
Ed has the millionaires market sown up.
The tables look decent for Coppard to me, I doubt Clegg will win by 7%. But I think he'll win.
Shame the same can't be said in Twickenham ;-)
I'm the odd one out.
I won't be staying up on election night, so I'd be delighted to wake up to the news he's lost but annoyed I'd missed it.
I can still change my mind.
(But I won't, if he had been slightly ahead or behind, I might have considered it)
I've been saying for ages he's safe. I'm always right
Also this poll points towards Huppert being very safe indeed.
The move is to counter claims a Labour government would lack legitimacy if it won fewer seats than the Conservatives.
Senior Labour sources say such a coalition would have collectively more seats than the Conservatives.
They hope this might give an Ed Miliband-led administration greater legitimacy in the eyes of voters.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32584903
https://www.facebook.com/Steven.Clegg.English.Democrats
(And how could Nick Clegg go for Labour when he made such strong arguments for backing the Tories last time - most seats/ most votes?)
Give him 1% from Clegg for that tbh.
The days Mike has given is when he expects the poll to be first published online.
For example the Guardian ICM poll is going to be in Thursday's edition, but online on Wednesday.
If Labour are 260 (and Conservatives around 290) then it's not easy, because of the SNP.
Edited extra bit: sorry, not paying full attention [doing a spot of work]. I know the first sentence reads as "If two parties can make a viable coalition, they will", which is rather a statement of the obvious.
Con 33.5%
Lab 30.5%
UKIP 14.5%
LD 12.5%
Greens 4%
I still think they are going to accrue a lot more wasted votes from red Liberals and previous tactical voters in seats that do them very little good this time. Conversely, the supposed "swing" to Labour in the South referred to at the end of the last thread is evidence that massive Tory majorities might become smaller majorities with the application of UKIP meaning that their vote becomes more efficient.
There have been some indications that the Tories might be doing better in some of the marginals, although not as much as I would like. If so this would suggest my theory has some substance to it.
I think that there will still be a bias in the system in favour of Labour but it will be significantly less than it was in 2005 or 2010.
I wonder if at some stage we may see the Democrat bit dropped from the name and a return to it just being the Liberal party.
"Which is more embarrassing? An endorsement from Russell Brand or Alan Partridge?"
More embarrassing Russell Brand though probably more influential. His nine million followers are obviously not the brightest so will probably do what he tells them. Whether they have the grey matter to find their way to the polling station is questionable.
Alan Partridge had an honest tale to tell about his humble beginnings and how Labour saw him and his family through. He didn't think the same of the Tories and didn't believe they shared values of community.
For those to whom it struck a chord it was impressive. Like one of those charity ads or red nose appeals. It had instant impact. His final words 'Do you really want another five years of a Tory Government?' will strike a chord
FWIW I think Clegg will win by 10-12 % , anyone who knows the various parts that make up Hallam would see that 30% is around the upper limit for Labour in the constituency
As it is the LDs will speak first to the Tories because of the most seats + most votes point, and Clegg has a natural preference to deal with Cameron anyway.
"I wonder if at some stage we may see the Democrat bit dropped from the name and a return to it just being the Liberal party."
"Blue Liberals" has a ring about it
PS Any more of Nicolas Witchel's grovelling obsequiousness and I think I'm going to be sick
Con 36.5%
Lab 31.5%
UKIP 12.0%
LD 10.5%
Greens 3.5%
Just as interesting might be the possibility tory/kipper tactical, particularly in the North. Labour would have lost H&M if the tory rump had voted tactically.
My prediction on national shares is.
Con 35.5%
Lab 33.5%
Lib Dem 13.5%
UKIP 10%
Greens 4%
Steve Coogan is a deeply conflicted individual.
I'm glad I'm part of the Tory Reform Group (and signed up to the No Turning Back Group)
Hell Yes!!!
Con 34.5%
Lab 33%
UKIP 13.5%
LD 9%
Greens 4%
Labour largest party.
I'd laugh, if it didn't make me so angry.
The other Lib Dem ministers should also be get some increased name recognition from being in office, so any swing against them should be less than for the average Lib Dem MP, which might be enough to save a few seats.
"I'm a decent human being, so I vote X" has the clear implication that political disagreement = being an uncaring swine.