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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM phone poll naming Clegg has him holding Sheffield Halla

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM phone poll naming Clegg has him holding Sheffield Hallam thanks to tactical Tory voters

Nick Clegg is on course to be saved from defeat in his Sheffield Hallam constituency by a tide of tactical Tory votes, according to a special Guardian/ICM poll conducted in the deputy prime minister’s constituency.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If nothing else, Labour should make sure that we see more of Oliver Coppard. Win or lose, he's clearly fought a fantastic campaign.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    I feel sure that on the day Labour's much lauded ground game will tip the scales in their favour.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited May 2015
    Farage, Kennedy and Jim Murphy would be three who I could imagine would receive a boost with named polling. Would this boost extend to standard MPs? I'm not sure..I think it'd only apply to candidates where people are tactical voting solely for the candidate themselves.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Steve Clegg will do well ;)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    TSE told this poll that he was going to vote tactically for Clegg but changed his mind on the back of irritating behaviour on the part of the Lib Dems in the last few days with leaks and breaches of confidence. I would be amazed if he was alone.

    I was going to vote tactically in Dundee West for a while. It is not easy and some of these tories will change their minds. I think this will be very close but with Nick holding on.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    edited May 2015
    The best PPB to date. Nothing flash just the most persuasive celebrity endorsement so far.

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/watch-steve-coogan-urges-people-9176553
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    edited May 2015
    Interesting that Cameron's in the South West today rather than defending his key marginal.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited May 2015
    I'm going to leave my position as it is off the back of this poll, Coppard is still in with a decent shout.

    Note: Backing Clegg.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    FPT: The Tories look like they're really going for Bath. A friend of mine just posted a picture from a rally with Cameron there today. A 15-minute rally speech on soundcloud has also just popped up on my Facebook feed.

    They wouldn't bother if they didn't think it was in play. There's 3/1 still available with 888sport and Unibet. Looks like value to me.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    marginals even.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Roger said:

    The best PPB to date. Nothing flash just the most persuasive celebrity endorsement so far.

    Which is more embarrassing? An endorsement from Russell Brand or Alan Partridge?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Roger, Coogan's a hypocrite. Whined about how stupid Top Gear is, but it didn't stop him being a guest on it. And featuring with [I think] his Ferrari to do a piece with Clarkson.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    DavidL said:

    TSE told this poll that he was going to vote tactically for Clegg but changed his mind on the back of irritating behaviour on the part of the Lib Dems in the last few days with leaks and breaches of confidence. I would be amazed if he was alone.

    I was going to vote tactically in Dundee West for a while. It is not easy and some of these tories will change their minds. I think this will be very close but with Nick holding on.

    I think it was another poll I took part in, I was polled on Wednesday.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Yay an original point from Scott!

    As for the poll - interesting to know whether it will cost the Libs seats the lack of differentiation that Clegg has done presumably to help keep any Tory Tactical voters.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Interesting that Cameron's in the South West today rather than defending his key marginals.

    Breitbart has a rehashed version of the 'labour vote in freefall in marginals' story, FWIW.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Regarding the previous threads list of when to expect polls - is a Tuesday night poll for a Wednesday paper listed as Tuesday or Wednesday?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    FPT: The Tories look like they're really going for Bath. A friend of mine just posted a picture from a rally with Cameron there today. A 15-minute rally speech on soundcloud has also just popped up on my Facebook feed.

    They wouldn't bother if they didn't think it was in play. There's 3/1 still available with 888sport and Unibet. Looks like value to me.

    There are undoubtedly seats to be won in the south west and the Tories seem very focussed on the 23 more policy.

    But there are seats to be lost in the midlands and London and I personally wish the Tories were paying more attention there. Every seat lost to Labour counts double in the largest party game.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Does anyone have the tables. The 18-30 segment and how its weighted is going to be crucial to the validity of this result.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    On topic, great thread TSE.

    I wonder if Clegg might be a special case? Very high profile name, with a lot of national attention from both sides, a huge amount of effort going on locally, with a lot of relentless tactical targeting of Tory voters by the LDs. Tory voters who know full well the consequences of letting Labour win instead.

    I expect *some* similar effect might be present in most marginals with first-time incumbent MPs. But not to the same extent.
  • NickPNickP Posts: 5
    It's not over till the large-boned posh woman yodels, o Cleggy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975

    Regarding the previous threads list of when to expect polls - is a Tuesday night poll for a Wednesday paper listed as Tuesday or Wednesday?

    As you read it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    Cameron fails again.

    Russell Brand , Delia Smith so much for tax cuts for millionaires !

    Ed has the millionaires market sown up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    IOS said:

    Does anyone have the tables. The 18-30 segment and how its weighted is going to be crucial to the validity of this result.

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/264086543/Hallam-BPC-1

    The tables look decent for Coppard to me, I doubt Clegg will win by 7%. But I think he'll win.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    DavidL said:

    FPT: The Tories look like they're really going for Bath. A friend of mine just posted a picture from a rally with Cameron there today. A 15-minute rally speech on soundcloud has also just popped up on my Facebook feed.

    They wouldn't bother if they didn't think it was in play. There's 3/1 still available with 888sport and Unibet. Looks like value to me.

    There are undoubtedly seats to be won in the south west and the Tories seem very focussed on the 23 more policy.

    But there are seats to be lost in the midlands and London and I personally wish the Tories were paying more attention there. Every seat lost to Labour counts double in the largest party game.
    Counting on a late surge and incumbent bonus to save those seats so they can focus on the potential gains? A bold strategy if that is the case, and bold has not been the hallmark of their campaign from the outside at least.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    If I was in Hallam I would vote for Clegg. He's been a good Tory.

    Shame the same can't be said in Twickenham ;-)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    I've spoken to a few Sheffield Hallam Tories today, most of them are voting tactically for Nick Clegg.

    I'm the odd one out.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516

    I've spoken to a few Sheffield Hallam Tories today, most of them are voting tactically for Nick Clegg.

    I'm the odd one out.

    Hang your head in shame Dorothy.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    I'd be disappointed to put it mildly if Clegg held his seat. However I'm a firm advocate of tactical voting so I would hardly begrudge the Tories from doing so. From their perspective it's the smart move. What could Labour do to stop Tory>Lib switching?

    I won't be staying up on election night, so I'd be delighted to wake up to the news he's lost but annoyed I'd missed it.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT: The Tories look like they're really going for Bath. A friend of mine just posted a picture from a rally with Cameron there today. A 15-minute rally speech on soundcloud has also just popped up on my Facebook feed.

    They wouldn't bother if they didn't think it was in play. There's 3/1 still available with 888sport and Unibet. Looks like value to me.

    There are undoubtedly seats to be won in the south west and the Tories seem very focussed on the 23 more policy.

    But there are seats to be lost in the midlands and London and I personally wish the Tories were paying more attention there. Every seat lost to Labour counts double in the largest party game.
    Counting on a late surge and incumbent bonus to save those seats so they can focus on the potential gains? A bold strategy if that is the case, and bold has not been the hallmark of their campaign from the outside at least.
    Yes, very brave Prime Minister.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    edited May 2015

    I've spoken to a few Sheffield Hallam Tories today, most of them are voting tactically for Nick Clegg.

    I'm the odd one out.

    Hang your head in shame Dorothy.
    Well I've filled in my postal vote, but I've not handed it in yet.

    I can still change my mind.

    (But I won't, if he had been slightly ahead or behind, I might have considered it)

    I've been saying for ages he's safe. I'm always right
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @patrickwintour: Labour may look for coalition with LDs if it cannot form a majority government on own, says BBC. BBC set to disclose election date next.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    I've spoken to a few Sheffield Hallam Tories today, most of them are voting tactically for Nick Clegg.

    I'm the odd one out.

    Hang your head in shame Dorothy.
    To be fair, he has been royally pissing off natural Tories over the last few days.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT: The Tories look like they're really going for Bath. A friend of mine just posted a picture from a rally with Cameron there today. A 15-minute rally speech on soundcloud has also just popped up on my Facebook feed.

    They wouldn't bother if they didn't think it was in play. There's 3/1 still available with 888sport and Unibet. Looks like value to me.

    There are undoubtedly seats to be won in the south west and the Tories seem very focussed on the 23 more policy.

    But there are seats to be lost in the midlands and London and I personally wish the Tories were paying more attention there. Every seat lost to Labour counts double in the largest party game.
    Counting on a late surge and incumbent bonus to save those seats so they can focus on the potential gains? A bold strategy if that is the case, and bold has not been the hallmark of their campaign from the outside at least.
    Probably just think the Lib Dem vote is so soft that there are easier pickings in the SW and a better return for their efforts. But with near 100 2010 gains in play I am not sure I agree entirely with their priorities at the moment.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Guardianistas going ballistic of course.

    I feel sure that on the day Labour's much lauded ground game will tip the scales in their favour.

    Anti Labour tactical voting may be the theme of this election....

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    DavidL said:

    FPT: The Tories look like they're really going for Bath. A friend of mine just posted a picture from a rally with Cameron there today. A 15-minute rally speech on soundcloud has also just popped up on my Facebook feed.

    They wouldn't bother if they didn't think it was in play. There's 3/1 still available with 888sport and Unibet. Looks like value to me.

    There are undoubtedly seats to be won in the south west and the Tories seem very focussed on the 23 more policy.

    But there are seats to be lost in the midlands and London and I personally wish the Tories were paying more attention there. Every seat lost to Labour counts double in the largest party game.
    Yeah, I do worry about that.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    @IOS - What works for you? I will, of course, pay my debt.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Clegg holding Hallam rules out Lab-Lib Dem I reckon. A pusch on Clegg may still well come methinks though.

    Also this poll points towards Huppert being very safe indeed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    edited May 2015
    Senior Labour figures are considering the option of forming a minority coalition with the Liberal Democrats, the BBC has learned.

    The move is to counter claims a Labour government would lack legitimacy if it won fewer seats than the Conservatives.

    Senior Labour sources say such a coalition would have collectively more seats than the Conservatives.

    They hope this might give an Ed Miliband-led administration greater legitimacy in the eyes of voters.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32584903
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    edited May 2015
    OK, it seemingly makes a difference when naming the candidates. This might also hold true for other seats. But it makes you wonder about an electorate that cannot remember the names of the candidates. Moreover, in Sheffield Hallam there is another gentleman by the name of Clegg on the ballot paper namely Steve Clegg of the English Democrats. If polling results change substantially if one names "Nick Clegg," how many voters will mark their cross next to the name of "Steve Clegg" of the English Democrats who appears right below Nick Clegg? In view of many voters seemingly changing their preferences once names are brought into play, this seems a valid question to ask.

    https://www.facebook.com/Steven.Clegg.English.Democrats
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    DavidL said:

    FPT: The Tories look like they're really going for Bath. A friend of mine just posted a picture from a rally with Cameron there today. A 15-minute rally speech on soundcloud has also just popped up on my Facebook feed.

    They wouldn't bother if they didn't think it was in play. There's 3/1 still available with 888sport and Unibet. Looks like value to me.

    There are undoubtedly seats to be won in the south west and the Tories seem very focussed on the 23 more policy.

    But there are seats to be lost in the midlands and London and I personally wish the Tories were paying more attention there. Every seat lost to Labour counts double in the largest party game.

    I drove home from Devon today. The LibDem/Tory posters and boards turn into Labour/Tory ones around Gloucester, I think. That's about when the UKIP stuff disappears as well.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516

    I've spoken to a few Sheffield Hallam Tories today, most of them are voting tactically for Nick Clegg.

    I'm the odd one out.

    Hang your head in shame Dorothy.
    Well I've filled in my postal vote, but I've not handed it in yet.

    I can still change my mind.

    (But I won't, if he had been slightly ahead or behind, I might have considered it)

    I've been saying for ages he's safe. I'm always right
    I think he'll hold on and if he does you'll piss off one half of the LDs.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited May 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @patrickwintour: Labour may look for coalition with LDs if it cannot form a majority government on own, says BBC. BBC set to disclose election date next.

    Very likely that Labour + lib dems < conservatives.

    (And how could Nick Clegg go for Labour when he made such strong arguments for backing the Tories last time - most seats/ most votes?)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    weejonnie said:

    Guardianistas going ballistic of course.

    I feel sure that on the day Labour's much lauded ground game will tip the scales in their favour.

    Anti Labour tactical voting may be the theme of this election....

    Anti Labour group couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery !
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516

    I've spoken to a few Sheffield Hallam Tories today, most of them are voting tactically for Nick Clegg.

    I'm the odd one out.

    Hang your head in shame Dorothy.
    To be fair, he has been royally pissing off natural Tories over the last few days.
    As much as Cameron ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Chris123 said:

    OK, it seemingly makes a difference when naming the candidates. This might also hold true for other seats. But it makes you wonder about an electorate that cannot remember the names of the candidates. Moreover, in Sheffield Hallam is that there is another gentleman by the name of Clegg on the ballot paper namely Steve Clegg of the English Democrats. If the result of the poll changes substantially only if name "Nick Clegg," how many voters will mark their cross next to the name of "Steve Clegg" of the English Democrats who appears right below Nick Clegg?

    Oh how'd we'd laugh...

    Give him 1% from Clegg for that tbh.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Regarding the previous threads list of when to expect polls - is a Tuesday night poll for a Wednesday paper listed as Tuesday or Wednesday?

    As you read it.
    Is that sarcastic? I read it as confusing which is why I'm asking lol.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Senior Labour figures are considering the option of forming a minority coalition with the Liberal Democrats, the BBC has learned.

    The move is to counter claims a Labour government would lack legitimacy if it won fewer seats than the Conservatives.

    Senior Labour sources say such a coalition would have collectively more seats than the Conservatives.

    They hope this might give an Ed Miliband-led administration greater legitimacy in the eyes of voters.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32584903

    I can't see the Lib Dems going for that if Labour are behind on seats. It'd be the death of the party. Clegg will try and block it anyway.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scott_P said:

    @patrickwintour: Labour may look for coalition with LDs if it cannot form a majority government on own, says BBC. BBC set to disclose election date next.

    You mean the breakaway splinter group ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975

    Regarding the previous threads list of when to expect polls - is a Tuesday night poll for a Wednesday paper listed as Tuesday or Wednesday?

    As you read it.
    Is that sarcastic? I read it as confusing which is why I'm asking lol.
    Wasn't meant to be.

    The days Mike has given is when he expects the poll to be first published online.

    For example the Guardian ICM poll is going to be in Thursday's edition, but online on Wednesday.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    edited May 2015
    Mr. Pulpstar, if Labour have something like 290 and the Lib Dems around 30, it works.

    If Labour are 260 (and Conservatives around 290) then it's not easy, because of the SNP.

    Edited extra bit: sorry, not paying full attention [doing a spot of work]. I know the first sentence reads as "If two parties can make a viable coalition, they will", which is rather a statement of the obvious.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    My current forecast for national shares:

    Con 33.5%
    Lab 30.5%
    UKIP 14.5%
    LD 12.5%
    Greens 4%
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Roger said:

    The best PPB to date. Nothing flash just the most persuasive celebrity endorsement so far.

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/watch-steve-coogan-urges-people-9176553

    Wow. He shows how it should be done.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    If Nick does hang on by the proverbial hair from a lower part of his anatomy this would be another example (just) of where the Labour vote becomes less efficient. In 2010 they scored really appallingly where they did not win or were at least in contention.

    I still think they are going to accrue a lot more wasted votes from red Liberals and previous tactical voters in seats that do them very little good this time. Conversely, the supposed "swing" to Labour in the South referred to at the end of the last thread is evidence that massive Tory majorities might become smaller majorities with the application of UKIP meaning that their vote becomes more efficient.

    There have been some indications that the Tories might be doing better in some of the marginals, although not as much as I would like. If so this would suggest my theory has some substance to it.

    I think that there will still be a bias in the system in favour of Labour but it will be significantly less than it was in 2005 or 2010.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. JS, I think the two major parties will be a little higher, and UKIP lower. Not sure about the Lib Dems.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    I reckon we will se a fair bit of Tory tactical voting for LDs on Thursday. It may well save a few of them. Lynn Featherstone in Hornsey could well be a beneficiary. I expect Labour to win less than ten LD seats.

    I wonder if at some stage we may see the Democrat bit dropped from the name and a return to it just being the Liberal party.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    Scott n'

    "Which is more embarrassing? An endorsement from Russell Brand or Alan Partridge?"

    More embarrassing Russell Brand though probably more influential. His nine million followers are obviously not the brightest so will probably do what he tells them. Whether they have the grey matter to find their way to the polling station is questionable.

    Alan Partridge had an honest tale to tell about his humble beginnings and how Labour saw him and his family through. He didn't think the same of the Tories and didn't believe they shared values of community.

    For those to whom it struck a chord it was impressive. Like one of those charity ads or red nose appeals. It had instant impact. His final words 'Do you really want another five years of a Tory Government?' will strike a chord
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    TSE despite all his humming and arrhing was never going to vote anything other than Conservative .
    FWIW I think Clegg will win by 10-12 % , anyone who knows the various parts that make up Hallam would see that 30% is around the upper limit for Labour in the constituency
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Interesting that Labour are starting to talk about a possible coalition with the LD's. On some projections the Tories will have more seats than Lab/LD combined.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Regarding the previous threads list of when to expect polls - is a Tuesday night poll for a Wednesday paper listed as Tuesday or Wednesday?

    As you read it.
    Is that sarcastic? I read it as confusing which is why I'm asking lol.
    Wasn't meant to be.

    The days Mike has given is when he expects the poll to be first published online.

    For example the Guardian ICM poll is going to be in Thursday's edition, but online on Wednesday.
    Thanks.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Any odds available on the break up of the Liberal Democrats by the end of the year ?
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    The BBC piece is worded as though the LDs would be privileged to even be asked by Labour and would obviously support the proposal.

    As it is the LDs will speak first to the Tories because of the most seats + most votes point, and Clegg has a natural preference to deal with Cameron anyway.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    surbiton said:

    Any odds available on the break up of the Liberal Democrats by the end of the year ?

    Dream on !!!!!!!!!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    SO

    "I wonder if at some stage we may see the Democrat bit dropped from the name and a return to it just being the Liberal party."

    "Blue Liberals" has a ring about it

    PS Any more of Nicolas Witchel's grovelling obsequiousness and I think I'm going to be sick
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    edited May 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Senior Labour figures are considering the option of forming a minority coalition with the Liberal Democrats, the BBC has learned.

    The move is to counter claims a Labour government would lack legitimacy if it won fewer seats than the Conservatives.

    Senior Labour sources say such a coalition would have collectively more seats than the Conservatives.

    They hope this might give an Ed Miliband-led administration greater legitimacy in the eyes of voters.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32584903

    I can't see the Lib Dems going for that if Labour are behind on seats. It'd be the death of the party. Clegg will try and block it anyway.
    I think the numbers won't add up for a coalition of Conservatives with Liberal Democrats. The other question is whether the Liberal Democrats will be in the mood for another coalition after the beating they are about to receive at the polls. The Conservatives got much more from this coalition election-wise. I think the Liberal Democrats will end up preferring some other type of arrangement.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    acf2310 said:

    The BBC piece is worded as though the LDs would be privileged to even be asked by Labour and would obviously support the proposal.

    As it is the LDs will speak first to the Tories because of the most seats + most votes point, and Clegg has a natural preference to deal with Cameron anyway.

    What makes you so sure that the Tories will have the highest number of seats ?
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455
    surbiton said:

    Any odds available on the break up of the Liberal Democrats by the end of the year ?

    I'm quite surprised we haven't seen defections on any scale to the Liberal Party, who are essentially the Social Liberal Forum but with added Euroscepticism. It may be the Euroscepticism that's stopped it, given how Euroenthusiastic most Lib Dem activists seem to be for some reason.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    AndyJS said:

    My current forecast for national shares:

    Con 33.5%
    Lab 30.5%
    UKIP 14.5%
    LD 12.5%
    Greens 4%

    Mine are:

    Con 36.5%
    Lab 31.5%
    UKIP 12.0%
    LD 10.5%
    Greens 3.5%
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    surbiton said:

    acf2310 said:

    The BBC piece is worded as though the LDs would be privileged to even be asked by Labour and would obviously support the proposal.

    As it is the LDs will speak first to the Tories because of the most seats + most votes point, and Clegg has a natural preference to deal with Cameron anyway.

    What makes you so sure that the Tories will have the highest number of seats ?
    If you bothered to read it, you would see that it is the premise of the article, a premise floated by a Labour source.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    Roger said:

    The best PPB to date. Nothing flash just the most persuasive celebrity endorsement so far.

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/watch-steve-coogan-urges-people-9176553

    The curious thing about Steve Coogan is that Alan Partridge and Gareth Cheeseman are actually nicer than he is.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I reckon we will se a fair bit of Tory tactical voting for LDs on Thursday. It may well save a few of them. Lynn Featherstone in Hornsey could well be a beneficiary. I expect Labour to win less than ten LD seats.

    I wonder if at some stage we may see the Democrat bit dropped from the name and a return to it just being the Liberal party.

    More hassle than its worth I suspect. What reason is there to overcome just simple inertia in order to do that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    TSE despite all his humming and arrhing was never going to vote anything other than Conservative .
    FWIW I think Clegg will win by 10-12 % , anyone who knows the various parts that make up Hallam would see that 30% is around the upper limit for Labour in the constituency

    It really should be. It is not a seat where they have ever been in contention. But there will also be an anti-Clegg vote, possibly amongst some disillusioned Lib Dems for a start. Tactical voting works both ways.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Pulpstar said:

    Senior Labour figures are considering the option of forming a minority coalition with the Liberal Democrats, the BBC has learned.

    The move is to counter claims a Labour government would lack legitimacy if it won fewer seats than the Conservatives.

    Senior Labour sources say such a coalition would have collectively more seats than the Conservatives.

    They hope this might give an Ed Miliband-led administration greater legitimacy in the eyes of voters.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32584903

    I can't see the Lib Dems going for that if Labour are behind on seats. It'd be the death of the party. Clegg will try and block it anyway.
    Would he necessarily have a choice in the matter? As has been pointed out before Cameron will have the first chance to try and form a government that can pass a Queen's Speech. If he can't command a majority then Ed Miliband will be called upon to have a go. Clegg can then decide whether he wants to back Miliband (though abstaining may be enough).
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    My current forecast for national shares:

    Con 33.5%
    Lab 30.5%
    UKIP 14.5%
    LD 12.5%
    Greens 4%

    I was taking it seriously until I read LD 12.5%. Good 4% too high !
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    It would be interesting to know what Harriet and Co make of the Brand endorsement. He's not exactly PC is he?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I reckon we will se a fair bit of Tory tactical voting for LDs on Thursday.

    Just as interesting might be the possibility tory/kipper tactical, particularly in the North. Labour would have lost H&M if the tory rump had voted tactically.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    DavidL said:

    If Nick does hang on by the proverbial hair from a lower part of his anatomy this would be another example (just) of where the Labour vote becomes less efficient. In 2010 they scored really appallingly where they did not win or were at least in contention.

    I still think they are going to accrue a lot more wasted votes from red Liberals and previous tactical voters in seats that do them very little good this time. Conversely, the supposed "swing" to Labour in the South referred to at the end of the last thread is evidence that massive Tory majorities might become smaller majorities with the application of UKIP meaning that their vote becomes more efficient.

    There have been some indications that the Tories might be doing better in some of the marginals, although not as much as I would like. If so this would suggest my theory has some substance to it.

    I think that there will still be a bias in the system in favour of Labour but it will be significantly less than it was in 2005 or 2010.

    I completely agree. I expect the Labour vote to go up pretty significantly in English seats that are already Labour held. I think Labour is really going to struggle taking Tory seats with majorities of 2,000 plus.

  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    AndyJS said:

    My current forecast for national shares:

    Con 33.5%
    Lab 30.5%
    UKIP 14.5%
    LD 12.5%
    Greens 4%

    So you reckon that Labour will only get 1% more than in 2010, when Labour recorded their second worst result. Labour voters did not go out to vote and this time around they will also get tactical votes from a good portion of the 2010 Lib Dem voters.

    My prediction on national shares is.

    Con 35.5%
    Lab 33.5%
    Lib Dem 13.5%
    UKIP 10%
    Greens 4%
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    Mr. Roger, Coogan's a hypocrite. Whined about how stupid Top Gear is, but it didn't stop him being a guest on it. And featuring with [I think] his Ferrari to do a piece with Clarkson.

    I love Coogan's characters and comedy. Sadly for him, I find them far more interesting, real and human than the man himself.

    Steve Coogan is a deeply conflicted individual.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    taffys said:

    I reckon we will se a fair bit of Tory tactical voting for LDs on Thursday.

    Just as interesting might be the possibility tory/kipper tactical, particularly in the North. Labour would have lost H&M if the tory rump had voted tactically.

    A GE turnout will see Labour win by around 7,000 in H & M
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Do Tories really like Clegg ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Roger said:

    Scott n'

    "Which is more embarrassing? An endorsement from Russell Brand or Alan Partridge?"

    More embarrassing Russell Brand though probably more influential. His nine million followers are obviously not the brightest so will probably do what he tells them. Whether they have the grey matter to find their way to the polling station is questionable.

    Alan Partridge had an honest tale to tell about his humble beginnings and how Labour saw him and his family through. He didn't think the same of the Tories and didn't believe they shared values of community.

    For those to whom it struck a chord it was impressive. Like one of those charity ads or red nose appeals. It had instant impact. His final words 'Do you really want another five years of a Tory Government?' will strike a chord

    They strike a chord with you as someone who doesn't like the Tories but then he's not swinging your vote is he. Does it strike a chord with either swing voters or apathetic voters who might not turnout is the question.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    The Bow Group, one of the oldest Tory groups has urged Tories to vote tactically for UKIP in seats where the Tories aren't in contention.

    I'm glad I'm part of the Tory Reform Group (and signed up to the No Turning Back Group)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Roger said:

    'Do you really want another five years of a Tory Government?'

    If the alternative is the Ed'n'Nicola show?

    Hell Yes!!!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Pulpstar said:

    Senior Labour figures are considering the option of forming a minority coalition with the Liberal Democrats, the BBC has learned.

    The move is to counter claims a Labour government would lack legitimacy if it won fewer seats than the Conservatives.

    Senior Labour sources say such a coalition would have collectively more seats than the Conservatives.

    They hope this might give an Ed Miliband-led administration greater legitimacy in the eyes of voters.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32584903

    I can't see the Lib Dems going for that if Labour are behind on seats. It'd be the death of the party. Clegg will try and block it anyway.
    How on earth would it be the death of the LDs? I personally don't think it will happen, but still?
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    My current forecast for national shares:

    Con 33.5%
    Lab 30.5%
    UKIP 14.5%
    LD 12.5%
    Greens 4%

    I was taking it seriously until I read LD 12.5%. Good 4% too high !
    Lib Dems will get tactical votes from Labour supporters where Labour cannot win, so their vote share will be higher than stated in polling.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    This two stage question is utter nonsense. The second question "and now turning to you own constituency" is the equivalent to saying "right lets see how bright or thick you are, do you know what's going on in your own constituency" of course peeps are going to give a different answer they don't want to appear uninformed. And any one who think naming the MP/candidates is anymore accurate is utterly deluded. Virtually no-one knows the name of their MP and the candidates ROFL.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    hucks67 said:

    Do Tories really like Clegg ?

    I do.
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    surbiton said:

    acf2310 said:

    The BBC piece is worded as though the LDs would be privileged to even be asked by Labour and would obviously support the proposal.

    As it is the LDs will speak first to the Tories because of the most seats + most votes point, and Clegg has a natural preference to deal with Cameron anyway.

    What makes you so sure that the Tories will have the highest number of seats ?
    Obviously they might not have, but I sense that the starting point after gains from the LDs / SNP losses is roughly 320 (302+18)/230 (256-35+9). I can see 30 Lab gains and 290-260, but I'm struggling to see the 46 that would bring it to 274-276.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @kiranstacey: This protestor last wk told me he wasn't SNP. This is where I next saw his mask. SNP said someone dropped it round. http://t.co/f18P8wwbLK
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Royale, saw an interesting piece on the TV some time ago. It suggested many comedians have difficult histories or psychological troubles and use comedy as a kind of stress relief/therapy. Comediennes, on the other hand, [it was asserted] tend to be confident and more at ease.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    My current forecast for national shares:

    Con 33.5%
    Lab 30.5%
    UKIP 14.5%
    LD 12.5%
    Greens 4%

    Mine are:

    Con 36.5%
    Lab 31.5%
    UKIP 12.0%
    LD 10.5%
    Greens 3.5%
    My take:

    Con 34.5%
    Lab 33%
    UKIP 13.5%
    LD 9%
    Greens 4%

    Labour largest party.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    It would be interesting to know what Harriet and Co make of the Brand endorsement. He's not exactly PC is he?

    More WC.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Roger said:

    The best PPB to date. Nothing flash just the most persuasive celebrity endorsement so far.

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/watch-steve-coogan-urges-people-9176553

    I find it deeply offensive that the plethora of luvvies that Labour are rolling out think that fairness, honesty and decency are the monopoly of the Labour party.

    I'd laugh, if it didn't make me so angry.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    surbiton said:

    Any odds available on the break up of the Liberal Democrats by the end of the year ?

    The break up of the LDs happened five years ago and is being made official on Thursday.
  • Clegg will be getting some benefit from being deputy PM, and the increased name recognition that brings, though being party leader would have made him fairly high profile anyway.

    The other Lib Dem ministers should also be get some increased name recognition from being in office, so any swing against them should be less than for the average Lib Dem MP, which might be enough to save a few seats.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Royale, quite.

    "I'm a decent human being, so I vote X" has the clear implication that political disagreement = being an uncaring swine.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I suppose I need to decide who to vote for soon.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Roger said:

    The best PPB to date. Nothing flash just the most persuasive celebrity endorsement so far.

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/watch-steve-coogan-urges-people-9176553

    I find it deeply offensive that the plethora of luvvies that Labour are rolling out think that fairness, honesty and decency are the monopoly of the Labour party.

    I'd laugh, if it didn't make me so angry.
    P!ss off !
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    I wonder what these Tory tactical voters will make of Clegg's obvious inability to keep private conversations private? It plays right into the 'you can't trust the LibDems' narrative...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    I reckon we will se a fair bit of Tory tactical voting for LDs on Thursday. It may well save a few of them. Lynn Featherstone in Hornsey could well be a beneficiary. I expect Labour to win less than ten LD seats.

    I wonder if at some stage we may see the Democrat bit dropped from the name and a return to it just being the Liberal party.

    More hassle than its worth I suspect. What reason is there to overcome just simple inertia in order to do that.

    I imagine the Democrat bit will really struggle with another coalition with the Tories.

This discussion has been closed.