politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM phone poll naming Clegg has him holding Sheffield Halla
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Labour have started and closed this campaign with an appeal to values voters. It's very American.
The Conservatives haven't tried to say who they stand for: I'd say that was a serious failing.0 -
Mr. Antifrank, Pirate Party?0
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I think many would argue that they are values no longer represented by any of the mainstream political parties'.Casino_Royale said:
I find it deeply offensive that the plethora of luvvies that Labour are rolling out think that fairness, honesty and decency are the monopoly of the Labour party.Roger said:The best PPB to date. Nothing flash just the most persuasive celebrity endorsement so far.
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/watch-steve-coogan-urges-people-9176553
I'd laugh, if it didn't make me so angry.0 -
The Nats don't look good. Their thuggish behaviour should help get the tactical voters out in the secret of the polling booths.
The Scots have always been the most thoughtful of the four nations but for some reason they think their nationalism is different and more attractive than other forms of nationalism when everyone can see it's just the same just as chauvinistic and just as ugly.0 -
Danny Alexander's perfidy on Thursday is what pushed me out of the Clegg camp.TudorRose said:I wonder what these Tory tactical voters will make of Clegg's obvious inability to keep private conversations private? It plays right into the 'you can't trust the LibDems' narrative...
That said, most Tories in the seat I spoke to view as acceptable given the Lib Dem national polling.0 -
Haha. Beat me to it!!Sean_F said:
The curious thing about Steve Coogan is that Alan Partridge and Gareth Cheeseman are actually nicer than he is.Roger said:The best PPB to date. Nothing flash just the most persuasive celebrity endorsement so far.
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/watch-steve-coogan-urges-people-91765530 -
It's kind of like the Tories laying claim to patriotism.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, quite.
"I'm a decent human being, so I vote X" has the clear implication that political disagreement = being an uncaring swine.
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Aaargh no.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Antifrank, Pirate Party?
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Forget Alexander. Clegg did the right thing for the country at considerable cost to his party. He deserves your vote. Alexander deserves a pint over his head for being a dork.TheScreamingEagles said:
Danny Alexander's perfidy on Thursday is what pushed me out of the Clegg camp.TudorRose said:I wonder what these Tory tactical voters will make of Clegg's obvious inability to keep private conversations private? It plays right into the 'you can't trust the LibDems' narrative...
That said, most Tories in the seat I spoke to view as acceptable given the Lib Dem national polling.0 -
One of the problems of this election is that neither Labour or Conservatives stand for anyone. On that basis the Tories might be best not pretending.antifrank said:Labour have started and closed this campaign with an appeal to values voters. It's very American.
The Conservatives haven't tried to say who they stand for: I'd say that was a serious failing.0 -
Huppert is the only near enough cert in a Lib-Lab marginal to my mind.0
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Dare I mention hard working families? I think Cameron has been reasonably good at articulating that latterly. The people who work, pay their taxes, create jobs, pay their debts, worry about what their children are going to inherit and do the right thing. Believe it or not according to preference but I don't think it is right to say he has not articulated it.antifrank said:Labour have started and closed this campaign with an appeal to values voters. It's very American.
The Conservatives haven't tried to say who they stand for: I'd say that was a serious failing.0 -
“Afraid” is the right word. Ashcroft’s polling suggests a rather better performance for Labour around the country than their own canvassing returns suggest. Campaign data isn’t polling, of course: but remember that Labour’s data was instrumental in deciding where to make a stand and fight against the tide in 2010. For the most part, those calls were validated by either narrow holds against the odds, or defeats by smaller margins than the national swing would have predicted.
But the problem for Labour is if their own data is right, it looks increasingly likely that not only will Clegg survive in Sheffield Hallam, but he will return to government as David Cameron’s deputy once again.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/are-ashcroft-polls-wrong0 -
The Pirates are now the most popular party in Iceland, according to the latest poll there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Antifrank, Pirate Party?
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Psychological troubles? That might explain why so many of them support the Labour party.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, saw an interesting piece on the TV some time ago. It suggested many comedians have difficult histories or psychological troubles and use comedy as a kind of stress relief/therapy. Comediennes, on the other hand, [it was asserted] tend to be confident and more at ease.
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They aren't Nats.Roger said:The Nats don't look good. Their thuggish behaviour should help get the tactical voters out in the secret of the polling booths.
The Scots have always been the most thoughtful of the four nations but for some reason they think their nationalism is different and more attractive than other forms of nationalism when everyone can see it's just the same just as chauvinistic and just as ugly.
Sean Clerkin is a hardcore socialist who campaigns against SLAB not for anyone. He is not associated with the SNP and as far as anyone is aware is not a supporter of Independence.0 -
Can the Tories get any more desperate.Scott_P said:@kiranstacey: This protestor last wk told me he wasn't SNP. This is where I next saw his mask. SNP said someone dropped it round. http://t.co/f18P8wwbLK
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If that were the case, you would see people change their minds in non LD constituencies. They do not.NoEasyDay said:This two stage question is utter nonsense. The second question "and now turning to you own constituency" is the equivalent to saying "right lets see how bright or thick you are, do you know what's going on in your own constituency" of course peeps are going to give a different answer they don't want to appear uninformed. And any one who think naming the MP/candidates is anymore accurate is utterly deluded. Virtually no-one knows the name of their MP and the candidates ROFL.
Look at every single Ashcroft poll: the significant shift between Q1 and Q2 happens only in LibDem constituencies, and only in some of them. So, in Cambridge, you see the Conservative vote almost halve between Q1 and Q2, and to the LibDems benefit.
Now, you can deride it all you like, as somehow persuading people to change their minds. But if it simply was a reprompt that encouraged people to reappraise, and therefore got a false result, then it would happen in a great many seats. And it does not.0 -
Mr. Observer, play fair, old bean. When Miliband claims the French President speaks for Britain it's a slightly open goal
[I have grave doubts about many politicians standing up for the national interest].
Anyway, having actually done some work, off to re-read Sean McGlynn's excellent book on torture and war crimes in the medieval period.0 -
Clegg's a good guy generally. The coalition have been outstanding at keeping any bickering to a minimum.TudorRose said:I wonder what these Tory tactical voters will make of Clegg's obvious inability to keep private conversations private? It plays right into the 'you can't trust the LibDems' narrative...
I look forwards to the day when the LDs replace Labour as the opposition. Top men the LDs, although I disagree with their conclusions often.
On that day too perhaps counter-rationalists like Brand will have their ears nailed to planks and be set afloat in the Atlantic.0 -
You are undoubtedly patriotic, SO. Sadly, there are many in the senior ranks of the Labour party who reject the concepts of nation states entirely, and emanate an instinctive distaste of Englishness.SouthamObserver said:
It's kind of like the Tories laying claim to patriotism.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, quite.
"I'm a decent human being, so I vote X" has the clear implication that political disagreement = being an uncaring swine.
I don't understand why Labour can't be like the US Democrats. Their patriotism is never in doubt, and they're unashamedly and proudly American.0 -
Then Clegg on Saturday said he might prop up a Lab/SNP coalition, contradicting himself from a week before.SquareRoot said:
Forget Alexander. Clegg did the right thing for the country at considerable cost to his party. He deserves your vote. Alexander deserves a pint over his head for being a dork.TheScreamingEagles said:
Danny Alexander's perfidy on Thursday is what pushed me out of the Clegg camp.TudorRose said:I wonder what these Tory tactical voters will make of Clegg's obvious inability to keep private conversations private? It plays right into the 'you can't trust the LibDems' narrative...
That said, most Tories in the seat I spoke to view as acceptable given the Lib Dem national polling.0 -
Given the anti Labour nature of the LD leaflets - Remember this - No Money Left with unflattering shots of Balls and Miliband. With Conservatives can't win here, vote LD to stop Labour.
Anyone making a tactical vote after this would be far from impressed if the LDs link up with Labour.
Local BBC news shows Cameron almost egged in Bath.0 -
That's a fair point.The_Apocalypse said:
I think many would argue that they are values no longer represented by any of the mainstream political parties'.Casino_Royale said:
I find it deeply offensive that the plethora of luvvies that Labour are rolling out think that fairness, honesty and decency are the monopoly of the Labour party.Roger said:The best PPB to date. Nothing flash just the most persuasive celebrity endorsement so far.
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/watch-steve-coogan-urges-people-9176553
I'd laugh, if it didn't make me so angry.
@MorrisDancer. Yes, I quite agree.0 -
The Conservatives are running a technocratic "don't let the other lot ruin it" aka 1992.antifrank said:Labour have started and closed this campaign with an appeal to values voters. It's very American.
The Conservatives haven't tried to say who they stand for: I'd say that was a serious failing.
However, I do agree with the thrust of your argument. Absolutely, in fact.0 -
You don;t have to keep trying to justify voting Conservative to us on here . You have made it clear in all your posts on here that you are a life long tribal Conservative and it was always clear to us who would end up voting for .TheScreamingEagles said:
Danny Alexander's perfidy on Thursday is what pushed me out of the Clegg camp.TudorRose said:I wonder what these Tory tactical voters will make of Clegg's obvious inability to keep private conversations private? It plays right into the 'you can't trust the LibDems' narrative...
That said, most Tories in the seat I spoke to view as acceptable given the Lib Dem national polling.
It was equally clear that Casino Royale would do the same despite his dithering and dallying with voting UKIP .0 -
Okay, that really is a guy who is a complete desperado for power. Thankfully, he doesn't represent many LDs at all.TheScreamingEagles said:
Then Clegg on Saturday said he might prop up a Lab/SNP coalition, contradicting himself from a week before.SquareRoot said:
Forget Alexander. Clegg did the right thing for the country at considerable cost to his party. He deserves your vote. Alexander deserves a pint over his head for being a dork.TheScreamingEagles said:
Danny Alexander's perfidy on Thursday is what pushed me out of the Clegg camp.TudorRose said:I wonder what these Tory tactical voters will make of Clegg's obvious inability to keep private conversations private? It plays right into the 'you can't trust the LibDems' narrative...
That said, most Tories in the seat I spoke to view as acceptable given the Lib Dem national polling.0 -
I suppose for me there is an issue around the fact that he told a third party (who told 'the world') and didn't just say it himself. Who else does he share these conversations with?Omnium said:
Clegg's a good guy generally. The coalition have been outstanding at keeping any bickering to a minimum.TudorRose said:I wonder what these Tory tactical voters will make of Clegg's obvious inability to keep private conversations private? It plays right into the 'you can't trust the LibDems' narrative...
I look forwards to the day when the LDs replace Labour as the opposition. Top men the LDs, although I disagree with their conclusions often.
On that day too perhaps counter-rationalists like Brand will have their ears nailed to planks and be set afloat in the Atlantic.0 -
Who where on the labourdoorstep today
Balls: Croydon Central
Umunna: Wirral West
Owen Smith: Carmarthen East and West, Llanelli
Burnham: Loughborough, Sherwood
Benn: Elmet and Rothwell
Kendall: Glasgow Central, Edinburgh South
Dugher: Amber Valley
Watson: Bermondsey, Lewisham Deptford, Battarsea, Islington N&S, Hornsey
Twigg: Yardley, Wolverhampton SW
Kate Green: Warrington South
Sharon Hodgson: Recar
Clive Betts (Sheffield NE): Bedford
Byrne: Gloucester
Blomfield (Sheffield Central): Colne Valley
Kevan Jones: Stockton South
Helen Goodman: Stockton South
Fovargue (Makerfield): Bolton West
Lammy: Hornsey
Thornberry: Hornsey
Neil and Glenys Kinnock: Vale of Glamorgan
Cherie Blair: Reading West
Eddie Izzard: Scotland
Steve Coogan: Bermondsey, Deptford, Battarsea, Islington North and South; Hornsey0 -
If only we had passed AV.
I could have voted Tory first, then given my second vote to the Lib Dems.
AV is so much fairer than FPTP.0 -
He seems to be quite widely reported as having been an SNP candidate in local elections. Where has that common misconception (it must after all be a misconception, if he is not associated with the SNP and not a supporter of independence) come from?Dair said:
They aren't Nats.Roger said:The Nats don't look good. Their thuggish behaviour should help get the tactical voters out in the secret of the polling booths.
The Scots have always been the most thoughtful of the four nations but for some reason they think their nationalism is different and more attractive than other forms of nationalism when everyone can see it's just the same just as chauvinistic and just as ugly.
Sean Clerkin is a hardcore socialist who campaigns against SLAB not for anyone. He is not associated with the SNP and as far as anyone is aware is not a supporter of Independence.0 -
Its all posturing. Ignore it. Vote Lib Dem in S Hallam. Keep the baby earing Labour guy out.TheScreamingEagles said:
Then Clegg on Saturday said he might prop up a Lab/SNP coalition, contradicting himself from a week before.SquareRoot said:
Forget Alexander. Clegg did the right thing for the country at considerable cost to his party. He deserves your vote. Alexander deserves a pint over his head for being a dork.TheScreamingEagles said:
Danny Alexander's perfidy on Thursday is what pushed me out of the Clegg camp.TudorRose said:I wonder what these Tory tactical voters will make of Clegg's obvious inability to keep private conversations private? It plays right into the 'you can't trust the LibDems' narrative...
That said, most Tories in the seat I spoke to view as acceptable given the Lib Dem national polling.0 -
At least he is mixing with the Public - more than can be said for EM - and Jim Murphy is on his soapbox enduring lots of hassle - we saw what happens to EM when he meets ordinary people at the QT debate when he was audibly booed for denying labour borrowed too muchdr_spyn said:Given the anti Labour nature of the LD leaflets - Remember this - No Money Left with unflattering shots of Balls and Miliband. With Conservatives can't win here, vote LD to stop Labour.
Anyone making a tactical vote after this would be far from impressed if the LDs link up with Labour.
Local BBC news shows Cameron almost egged in Bath.0 -
I still haven't submitted my postal vote, just filled it in.SquareRoot said:
Its all posturing. Ignore it. Vote Lib Dem in S Hallam. Keep the baby earing Labour guy out.TheScreamingEagles said:
Then Clegg on Saturday said he might prop up a Lab/SNP coalition, contradicting himself from a week before.SquareRoot said:
Forget Alexander. Clegg did the right thing for the country at considerable cost to his party. He deserves your vote. Alexander deserves a pint over his head for being a dork.TheScreamingEagles said:
Danny Alexander's perfidy on Thursday is what pushed me out of the Clegg camp.TudorRose said:I wonder what these Tory tactical voters will make of Clegg's obvious inability to keep private conversations private? It plays right into the 'you can't trust the LibDems' narrative...
That said, most Tories in the seat I spoke to view as acceptable given the Lib Dem national polling.0 -
How's the campaign going for you, Mark?MarkSenior said:
You don;t have to keep trying to justify voting Conservative to us on here . You have made it clear in all your posts on here that you are a life long tribal Conservative and it was always clear to us who would end up voting for .TheScreamingEagles said:
Danny Alexander's perfidy on Thursday is what pushed me out of the Clegg camp.TudorRose said:I wonder what these Tory tactical voters will make of Clegg's obvious inability to keep private conversations private? It plays right into the 'you can't trust the LibDems' narrative...
That said, most Tories in the seat I spoke to view as acceptable given the Lib Dem national polling.
It was equally clear that Casino Royale would do the same despite his dithering and dallying with voting UKIP .0 -
I would point out that both JackW and I were telling everyone to get on at any price better than evens a year ago.Pulpstar said:Huppert is the only near enough cert in a Lib-Lab marginal to my mind.
I'm now looking for "unlikely libdem holds"... Birmingham Yardley at evens looks very tempting. H&WG at anything better than 2-1 might be interesting. I don't fancy Cardiff Central. And my (admittedly total partisan) source tells me David Ward "is a dead cert". (Although I wouldn't back him at less than 7-2).0 -
OK so firstly I agree there are exceptions well known figures like Clegg and particularly active MPs. On that I concede.rcs1000 said:
If that were the case, you would see people change their minds in non LD constituencies. They do not.NoEasyDay said:This two stage question is utter nonsense. The second question "and now turning to you own constituency" is the equivalent to saying "right lets see how bright or thick you are, do you know what's going on in your own constituency" of course peeps are going to give a different answer they don't want to appear uninformed. And any one who think naming the MP/candidates is anymore accurate is utterly deluded. Virtually no-one knows the name of their MP and the candidates ROFL.
Look at every single Ashcroft poll: the significant shift between Q1 and Q2 happens only in LibDem constituencies, and only in some of them. So, in Cambridge, you see the Conservative vote almost halve between Q1 and Q2, and to the LibDems benefit.
Now, you can deride it all you like, as somehow persuading people to change their minds. But if it simply was a reprompt that encouraged people to reappraise, and therefore got a false result, then it would happen in a great many seats. And it does not.
But they do change their mind in non Lib Dem constituencies, that is the whole theme of this stupid "it's different in the marginals" stuff.0 -
drspyn Getting egged did Major no harm. Looks like both Murphy and Clegg could be helped by Tory tactical event
Also, did some phoning in Vale of Clwyd today, reasonably positive, some staunch Tories and Labour voters and the odd Plaid, but also several still undecided, so still much to play for0 -
Anyone got any bets or info on Bosworth? LibDem is 2nd and there was a big swing to him last time (from Labour).0
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And people wonder why Cameron has been in the SW!Scott_P said:@patrickwintour: Labour may look for coalition with LDs if it cannot form a majority government on own, says BBC. BBC set to disclose election date next.
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I'm on Labour at a frankly awful 1-8 there (Got carried away when looking at Brent Central data) so I'm hoping your source is wrong. It'd require a staggering personal vote for him to hang on.rcs1000 said:
I would point out that both JackW and I were telling everyone to get on at any price better than evens a year ago.Pulpstar said:Huppert is the only near enough cert in a Lib-Lab marginal to my mind.
I'm now looking for "unlikely libdem holds"... Birmingham Yardley at evens looks very tempting. H&WG at anything better than 2-1 might be interesting. I don't fancy Cardiff Central. And my (admittedly total partisan) source tells me David Ward "is a dead cert". (Although I wouldn't back him at less than 7-2).0 -
Medical problems and a recent minor op have kept me indoors .Casino_Royale said:
How's the campaign going for you, Mark?MarkSenior said:
You don;t have to keep trying to justify voting Conservative to us on here . You have made it clear in all your posts on here that you are a life long tribal Conservative and it was always clear to us who would end up voting for .TheScreamingEagles said:
Danny Alexander's perfidy on Thursday is what pushed me out of the Clegg camp.TudorRose said:I wonder what these Tory tactical voters will make of Clegg's obvious inability to keep private conversations private? It plays right into the 'you can't trust the LibDems' narrative...
That said, most Tories in the seat I spoke to view as acceptable given the Lib Dem national polling.
It was equally clear that Casino Royale would do the same despite his dithering and dallying with voting UKIP .0 -
Go on then: give me the URL of the Ashcroft poll which proves your pointNoEasyDay said:
OK so firstly I agree there are exceptions well known figures like Clegg and particularly active MPs. On that I concede.rcs1000 said:
If that were the case, you would see people change their minds in non LD constituencies. They do not.NoEasyDay said:This two stage question is utter nonsense. The second question "and now turning to you own constituency" is the equivalent to saying "right lets see how bright or thick you are, do you know what's going on in your own constituency" of course peeps are going to give a different answer they don't want to appear uninformed. And any one who think naming the MP/candidates is anymore accurate is utterly deluded. Virtually no-one knows the name of their MP and the candidates ROFL.
Look at every single Ashcroft poll: the significant shift between Q1 and Q2 happens only in LibDem constituencies, and only in some of them. So, in Cambridge, you see the Conservative vote almost halve between Q1 and Q2, and to the LibDems benefit.
Now, you can deride it all you like, as somehow persuading people to change their minds. But if it simply was a reprompt that encouraged people to reappraise, and therefore got a false result, then it would happen in a great many seats. And it does not.
But they do change their mind in non Lib Dem constituencies, that is the whole theme of this stupid "it's different in the marginals" stuff.0 -
I'm sorry to hear that.MarkSenior said:
Medical problems and a recent minor op have kept me indoors .Casino_Royale said:
How's the campaign going for you, Mark?MarkSenior said:
You don;t have to keep trying to justify voting Conservative to us on here . You have made it clear in all your posts on here that you are a life long tribal Conservative and it was always clear to us who would end up voting for .TheScreamingEagles said:
Danny Alexander's perfidy on Thursday is what pushed me out of the Clegg camp.TudorRose said:I wonder what these Tory tactical voters will make of Clegg's obvious inability to keep private conversations private? It plays right into the 'you can't trust the LibDems' narrative...
That said, most Tories in the seat I spoke to view as acceptable given the Lib Dem national polling.
It was equally clear that Casino Royale would do the same despite his dithering and dallying with voting UKIP .0 -
Unlikely Lib Dem holds.
Gordon 16/1 which Shadsy has been taking and Viscount Thurso's seat might be another one.0 -
12% Tories in Sheffield Hallam say otherwise.surbiton said:
Anti Labour group couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery !weejonnie said:Guardianistas going ballistic of course.
Anti Labour tactical voting may be the theme of this election....steve_garner said:I feel sure that on the day Labour's much lauded ground game will tip the scales in their favour.
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As a still undecided voter I know one thing: You can't trust the Lib Dems !Tissue_Price said:
And people wonder why Cameron has been in the SW!Scott_P said:@patrickwintour: Labour may look for coalition with LDs if it cannot form a majority government on own, says BBC. BBC set to disclose election date next.
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It's the Labour party or elements in it which have been organising the behaviour seen today - see previous thread. Who and why remain to be seen, but at least two newspapers' journos have picked up on the issue at least on Twitter.Roger said:The Nats don't look good. Their thuggish behaviour should help get the tactical voters out in the secret of the polling booths.
The Scots have always been the most thoughtful of the four nations but for some reason they think their nationalism is different and more attractive than other forms of nationalism when everyone can see it's just the same just as chauvinistic and just as ugly.
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Thanks , nothing life threatening but inconvenient .Casino_Royale said:
I'm sorry to hear that.MarkSenior said:
Medical problems and a recent minor op have kept me indoors .Casino_Royale said:
How's the campaign going for you, Mark?MarkSenior said:
You don;t have to keep trying to justify voting Conservative to us on here . You have made it clear in all your posts on here that you are a life long tribal Conservative and it was always clear to us who would end up voting for .TheScreamingEagles said:
Danny Alexander's perfidy on Thursday is what pushed me out of the Clegg camp.TudorRose said:I wonder what these Tory tactical voters will make of Clegg's obvious inability to keep private conversations private? It plays right into the 'you can't trust the LibDems' narrative...
That said, most Tories in the seat I spoke to view as acceptable given the Lib Dem national polling.
It was equally clear that Casino Royale would do the same despite his dithering and dallying with voting UKIP .
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I make more money if the Lib Dems hold onto those 2 than if they lose them. Labour will be off a cliff in both now.TheScreamingEagles said:Unlikely Lib Dem holds.
Gordon 16/1 which Shadsy has been taking and Viscount Thurso's seat might be another one.0 -
give me half an hour I need to take the dog for a walk....rcs1000 said:
Go on then: give me the URL of the Ashcroft poll which proves your pointNoEasyDay said:
OK so firstly I agree there are exceptions well known figures like Clegg and particularly active MPs. On that I concede.rcs1000 said:
If that were the case, you would see people change their minds in non LD constituencies. They do not.NoEasyDay said:This two stage question is utter nonsense. The second question "and now turning to you own constituency" is the equivalent to saying "right lets see how bright or thick you are, do you know what's going on in your own constituency" of course peeps are going to give a different answer they don't want to appear uninformed. And any one who think naming the MP/candidates is anymore accurate is utterly deluded. Virtually no-one knows the name of their MP and the candidates ROFL.
Look at every single Ashcroft poll: the significant shift between Q1 and Q2 happens only in LibDem constituencies, and only in some of them. So, in Cambridge, you see the Conservative vote almost halve between Q1 and Q2, and to the LibDems benefit.
Now, you can deride it all you like, as somehow persuading people to change their minds. But if it simply was a reprompt that encouraged people to reappraise, and therefore got a false result, then it would happen in a great many seats. And it does not.
But they do change their mind in non Lib Dem constituencies, that is the whole theme of this stupid "it's different in the marginals" stuff.0 -
NSFW - Labour voters like it dirty, and are most likely to bonk with someone else's partner:
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/434926/General-Election-How-vote-shows-like-bed
Lib Dems are the most passive, and would prefer to watch others have sex than do it themselves. However, they are also most likely to romp with a transvestite or someone of a different race.0 -
The "Out" vote in Gordon is just too high. Sure, there'll be tactical voting, but I don't think it'll be anywhere near enough.TheScreamingEagles said:Unlikely Lib Dem holds.
Gordon 16/1 which Shadsy has been taking and Viscount Thurso's seat might be another one.
CS&E is a good one, I may have a play...0 -
Not enough Tories in Inverness to save Danny.0
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Get well soon Mark Senior. Us chaps often neglect health indications until its too late.0
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Some things are less clear than they may appear of course. People are mistaken as tribal supporters of another persuasion not uncommonly.MarkSenior said:
You don;t have to keep trying to justify voting Conservative to us on here . You have made it clear in all your posts on here that you are a life long tribal Conservative and it was always clear to us who would end up voting for .TheScreamingEagles said:
Danny Alexander's perfidy on Thursday is what pushed me out of the Clegg camp.TudorRose said:I wonder what these Tory tactical voters will make of Clegg's obvious inability to keep private conversations private? It plays right into the 'you can't trust the LibDems' narrative...
That said, most Tories in the seat I spoke to view as acceptable given the Lib Dem national polling.
It was equally clear that Casino Royale would do the same despite his dithering and dallying with voting UKIP .0 -
9/2 with William Hillrcs1000 said:
The "Out" vote in Gordon is just too high. Sure, there'll be tactical voting, but I don't think it'll be anywhere near enough.TheScreamingEagles said:Unlikely Lib Dem holds.
Gordon 16/1 which Shadsy has been taking and Viscount Thurso's seat might be another one.
CS&E is a good one, I may have a play...0 -
Exhibit 1: Ukelect forecast yesterday Lab Short By 53 - Hung Parliamentweejonnie said:
12% Tories in Sheffield Hallam say otherwise.surbiton said:
Anti Labour group couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery !weejonnie said:Guardianistas going ballistic of course.
Anti Labour tactical voting may be the theme of this election....steve_garner said:I feel sure that on the day Labour's much lauded ground game will tip the scales in their favour.
Ukelect forecast 1 Oct 2014 Labour Majority 44 - Gain from NOC
That astonishing transformation takes place in less time than it takes Princess Charlotte to get conceived and born.
Exhibit 2: #EdStone
The most epic piece of unforced political wankerdom since - I don't know when; it certainly puts Sheffield comfortably in the shade.
It is therefore interesting at this juncture to hear from Surby about lab's electoral competence.0 -
Does the poll confirm that Kippers like a finger up the fundament?Casino_Royale said:NSFW - Labour voters like it dirty, and are most likely to bonk with someone else's partner:
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/434926/General-Election-How-vote-shows-like-bed
Lib Dems are the most passive, and would prefer to watch others have sex than do it themselves. However, they are also most likely to romp with a transvestite or someone of a different race.0 -
That's simply untrue:Carnyx said:
It's the Labour party or elements in it which have been organising the behaviour seen today - see previous thread. Who and why remain to be seen, but at least two newspapers' journos have picked up on the issue at least on Twitter.Roger said:The Nats don't look good. Their thuggish behaviour should help get the tactical voters out in the secret of the polling booths.
The Scots have always been the most thoughtful of the four nations but for some reason they think their nationalism is different and more attractive than other forms of nationalism when everyone can see it's just the same just as chauvinistic and just as ugly.
https://twitter.com/blairmcdougall/status/595285375372890113
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Wasn't only yesterday that a UKipper from Barnsley was a friend of Mrs Palm and her five lovely daughters.watford30 said:
Does the poll confirm that Kippers like a finger up the fundament?Casino_Royale said:NSFW - Labour voters like it dirty, and are most likely to bonk with someone else's partner:
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/434926/General-Election-How-vote-shows-like-bed
Lib Dems are the most passive, and would prefer to watch others have sex than do it themselves. However, they are also most likely to romp with a transvestite or someone of a different race.
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'Labour's new floating voters'?Omnium said:TudorRose said:I wonder what these Tory tactical voters will make of Clegg's obvious inability to keep private conversations private? It plays right into the 'you can't trust the LibDems' narrative...
On that day too perhaps counter-rationalists like Brand will have their ears nailed to planks and be set afloat in the Atlantic.0 -
Looks like Bermondsey in play. Glasgow Central and Edinburgh South - slightly off the bottom in Scotland for Labour.AndreaParma_82 said:Who where on the labourdoorstep today
Balls: Croydon Central
Umunna: Wirral West
Owen Smith: Carmarthen East and West, Llanelli
Burnham: Loughborough, Sherwood
Benn: Elmet and Rothwell
Kendall: Glasgow Central, Edinburgh South
Dugher: Amber Valley
Watson: Bermondsey, Lewisham Deptford, Battarsea, Islington N&S, Hornsey
Twigg: Yardley, Wolverhampton SW
Kate Green: Warrington South
Sharon Hodgson: Recar
Clive Betts (Sheffield NE): Bedford
Byrne: Gloucester
Blomfield (Sheffield Central): Colne Valley
Kevan Jones: Stockton South
Helen Goodman: Stockton South
Fovargue (Makerfield): Bolton West
Lammy: Hornsey
Thornberry: Hornsey
Neil and Glenys Kinnock: Vale of Glamorgan
Cherie Blair: Reading West
Eddie Izzard: Scotland
Steve Coogan: Bermondsey, Deptford, Battarsea, Islington North and South; Hornsey0 -
You really can't do sums can you ?TheScreamingEagles said:The Bow Group, one of the oldest Tory groups has urged Tories to vote tactically for UKIP in seats where the Tories aren't in contention.
I'm glad I'm part of the Tory Reform Group (and signed up to the No Turning Back Group)
If the kippers take northern seats from Labour where the Tories haven't a hope in hell of winning then Ed is toast.Makes sense
It's not even as if Cameron gives a shit about the Northern cities.0 -
Which just about worked for them when they went in with 376 seats and came out with 336, just enough to last a Parliament. Today's Tories have no such luxury.Casino_Royale said:
The Conservatives are running a technocratic "don't let the other lot ruin it" aka 1992.antifrank said:Labour have started and closed this campaign with an appeal to values voters. It's very American.
The Conservatives haven't tried to say who they stand for: I'd say that was a serious failing.
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The New Statesman seems to think that Labour think that they're losing.0
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Does anyone have any ideas on what the turnout in Scotland might be?
In 2010 the figure was 63.8% according to the BBC. I was thinking it might rise by more than the UK average.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/region/7.stm0 -
I wonder if there are consequences for other Lib Dem MPs who are relying on Labour votes to prop them up. Will they lose trust in the Lib Dems as a potential anti-Tory ally when Tory support for Clegg is plastered all over the Guardian?
It's also worth noting that the Tories are set to pick up around one million 2010 Lib Dem voters according to the polls.
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I'm unaware of him ever standing for the SNP and as he's not (and again as far as I know) never has been a member he couldn't have. He is associated with the Scottish Socialist Alliance.oldpolitics said:
He seems to be quite widely reported as having been an SNP candidate in local elections. Where has that common misconception (it must after all be a misconception, if he is not associated with the SNP and not a supporter of independence) come from?Dair said:
They aren't Nats.Roger said:The Nats don't look good. Their thuggish behaviour should help get the tactical voters out in the secret of the polling booths.
The Scots have always been the most thoughtful of the four nations but for some reason they think their nationalism is different and more attractive than other forms of nationalism when everyone can see it's just the same just as chauvinistic and just as ugly.
Sean Clerkin is a hardcore socialist who campaigns against SLAB not for anyone. He is not associated with the SNP and as far as anyone is aware is not a supporter of Independence.
It's not up to me to prove a negative. You need to provide evidence of your unsubstantiated claim.0 -
The Con incumbent there (Tredinnick) is possibly the most deluded person in the Commons, he thinks astrology is the answer to the NHS problems:rottenborough said:Anyone got any bets or info on Bosworth? LibDem is 2nd and there was a big swing to him last time (from Labour).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/nhs/11432344/Astrology-could-solve-crisis-in-the-NHS-says-Tory-MP.html
There is a reasonable kipper vote and the LDs run the Hinckley council well. Even so I cannot see it as a LD gain. There is active canvassing there.
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''If the kippers take northern seats from Labour where the Tories haven't a hope in hell of winning then Ed is toast. Makes sense''
Didn't you know that this is one of those events that the bubble has decreed 'Simply Can't Happen?'
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Yes. And they are. But what puzzles me is why share this? What purpose does it serve except to demotivate? I can understand a newspaper doing it, but Labour's house journal? That makes no sense.antifrank said:The New Statesman seems to think that Labour think that they're losing.
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Carnyx
"It's the Labour party or elements in it which have been organising the behaviour seen today - see previous thread."
We've just seen it on TV. We've just seen the thugs interviewed. Why peddle such nonsense?0 -
Yeah I posted that downthread.antifrank said:The New Statesman seems to think that Labour think that they're losing.
The most interesting things to happen this weekend were the Tories and Labour telling the media that the Tories we're going to be ahead on seats and that Ed would be safe if he didn't become PM0 -
I used to like Nick Witchell on the Six O'clock News with Sue Lawley in the 80s and 90s but these days he gets on my nerves a bit. (I was a big fan of the Six O'clock News as a primary school pupil, which shows how odd I was/am).0
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Shall i post a pic of Dame Anne Begg with the Sottish National Front leader ?SouthamObserver said:
That's simply untrue:Carnyx said:
It's the Labour party or elements in it which have been organising the behaviour seen today - see previous thread. Who and why remain to be seen, but at least two newspapers' journos have picked up on the issue at least on Twitter.Roger said:The Nats don't look good. Their thuggish behaviour should help get the tactical voters out in the secret of the polling booths.
The Scots have always been the most thoughtful of the four nations but for some reason they think their nationalism is different and more attractive than other forms of nationalism when everyone can see it's just the same just as chauvinistic and just as ugly.
https://twitter.com/blairmcdougall/status/595285375372890113
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Let's hope so, would have no problem voting for some Lib Dem and almost all UKIP, or indeed the Nats, if they are best placed to stop Labour.weejonnie said:Guardianistas going ballistic of course.
Anti Labour tactical voting may be the theme of this election....steve_garner said:I feel sure that on the day Labour's much lauded ground game will tip the scales in their favour.
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Lol desperate stuff from McDougall.SouthamObserver said:
That's simply untrue:Carnyx said:
It's the Labour party or elements in it which have been organising the behaviour seen today - see previous thread. Who and why remain to be seen, but at least two newspapers' journos have picked up on the issue at least on Twitter.Roger said:The Nats don't look good. Their thuggish behaviour should help get the tactical voters out in the secret of the polling booths.
The Scots have always been the most thoughtful of the four nations but for some reason they think their nationalism is different and more attractive than other forms of nationalism when everyone can see it's just the same just as chauvinistic and just as ugly.
https://twitter.com/blairmcdougall/status/5952853753728901130 -
New Statesman has seemed quite maudlin for Labour for years.SouthamObserver said:
Yes. And they are. But what puzzles me is why share this? What purpose does it serve except to demotivate? I can understand a newspaper doing it, but Labour's house journal? That makes no sense.antifrank said:The New Statesman seems to think that Labour think that they're losing.
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taffys said:
''If the kippers take northern seats from Labour where the Tories haven't a hope in hell of winning then Ed is toast. Makes sense''
Didn't you know that this is one of those events that the bubble has decreed 'Simply Can't Happen?'
It might well be, but in a tight election the Tory leadership isn't half thick. Pressurise Labour in more of their back yards and there are fewer people to bus in to contesting marginals.taffys said:''If the kippers take northern seats from Labour where the Tories haven't a hope in hell of winning then Ed is toast. Makes sense''
Didn't you know that this is one of those events that the bubble has decreed 'Simply Can't Happen?'0 -
Really? It looks persuasive to me?Dair said:
Lol desperate stuff from McDougall.SouthamObserver said:
That's simply untrue:Carnyx said:
It's the Labour party or elements in it which have been organising the behaviour seen today - see previous thread. Who and why remain to be seen, but at least two newspapers' journos have picked up on the issue at least on Twitter.Roger said:The Nats don't look good. Their thuggish behaviour should help get the tactical voters out in the secret of the polling booths.
The Scots have always been the most thoughtful of the four nations but for some reason they think their nationalism is different and more attractive than other forms of nationalism when everyone can see it's just the same just as chauvinistic and just as ugly.
https://twitter.com/blairmcdougall/status/5952853753728901130 -
The plans for the Northern Powerhouses say otherwise.Alanbrooke said:
You really can't do sums can you ?TheScreamingEagles said:The Bow Group, one of the oldest Tory groups has urged Tories to vote tactically for UKIP in seats where the Tories aren't in contention.
I'm glad I'm part of the Tory Reform Group (and signed up to the No Turning Back Group)
If the kippers take northern seats from Labour where the Tories haven't a hope in hell of winning then Ed is toast.Makes sense
It's not even as if Cameron gives a shit about the Northern cities.
I'm not a fan of the Kippers. They'll be like an STD. Very hard to shift once they get a seat.0 -
Three beauties.SouthamObserver said:
That's simply untrue:Carnyx said:
It's the Labour party or elements in it which have been organising the behaviour seen today - see previous thread. Who and why remain to be seen, but at least two newspapers' journos have picked up on the issue at least on Twitter.Roger said:The Nats don't look good. Their thuggish behaviour should help get the tactical voters out in the secret of the polling booths.
The Scots have always been the most thoughtful of the four nations but for some reason they think their nationalism is different and more attractive than other forms of nationalism when everyone can see it's just the same just as chauvinistic and just as ugly.
https://twitter.com/blairmcdougall/status/595285375372890113
Genuinely frightening.0 -
I doubt those voting for Clegg are tactically voting against Labour - it's far more about the overall importance Clegg plays' in terms of the Tories' coalition hopes.0
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I think Tredinnick will have another poor result relative to other Tory MPs in the area, but he'll hold on as usual, with the opposition vote divided three ways between LD, Lab and UKIP.foxinsoxuk said:
The Con incumbent there (Tredinnick) is possibly the most deluded person in the Commons, he thinks astrology is the answer to the NHS problems:rottenborough said:Anyone got any bets or info on Bosworth? LibDem is 2nd and there was a big swing to him last time (from Labour).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/nhs/11432344/Astrology-could-solve-crisis-in-the-NHS-says-Tory-MP.html
There is a reasonable kipper vote and the LDs run the Hinckley council well. Even so I cannot see it as a LD gain. There is active canvassing there.0 -
My prediction:-
Con 282
Lab 266,
Lib Dem 28,
SNP 50,
NI 18,
UKIP 4,
Squeaker 1,
Green 10 -
10 seats behind the Tories means that basically they've won, unless the Nats massively underperform and Lib Dems outperform.AndyJS said:
The Sunday Times reported that Labour privately expects to come "5 to 10 seats" behind the Tories. Obviously that means they also expect to lose the popular vote.antifrank said:The New Statesman seems to think that Labour think that they're losing.
Belfast South could get into the mix at the margins too.0 -
Because it's true.Roger said:Carnyx
"It's the Labour party or elements in it which have been organising the behaviour seen today - see previous thread."
We've just seen it on TV. We've just seen the thugs interviewed. Why peddle such nonsense?
East Renfrewshire CLP are co-ordinating with Clerkin and Doughty so they turn up when Labour want them to. At least they aren't facing court like the Labour PPC for St Helens South facing an alleged assault at a Polling Place during the Referendum.0 -
Con, LD, UKIP and Orangemen coalition ?Sean_F said:My prediction:-
Con 282
Lab 266,
Lib Dem 28,
SNP 50,
NI 18,
UKIP 4,
Squeaker 1,
Green 1
A true Rainbow coalition.0 -
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It's a plan, they haven't actually done much. Other plans include reducing the deficit, rebalancing the economy and building a high speed rail system. Where once again it's all talk no action.TheScreamingEagles said:
The plans for the Northern Powerhouses say otherwise.Alanbrooke said:
You really can't do sums can you ?TheScreamingEagles said:The Bow Group, one of the oldest Tory groups has urged Tories to vote tactically for UKIP in seats where the Tories aren't in contention.
I'm glad I'm part of the Tory Reform Group (and signed up to the No Turning Back Group)
If the kippers take northern seats from Labour where the Tories haven't a hope in hell of winning then Ed is toast.Makes sense
It's not even as if Cameron gives a shit about the Northern cities.
I'm not a fan of the Kippers. They'll be like an STD. Very hard to shift once they get a seat.
Make up your mind, is Ed the scariest thing ever or is it you just can't bear to work with people you don't like to keep him out ?0 -
The Lib Dems are going to have great fun with that result.TheScreamingEagles said:
Con, LD, UKIP and Orangemen coalition ?Sean_F said:My prediction:-
Con 282
Lab 266,
Lib Dem 28,
SNP 50,
NI 18,
UKIP 4,
Squeaker 1,
Green 1
A true Rainbow coalition.0 -
Tredinnick is someone I would cheerfully vote tactically against. The man is an embarrassment.0
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Only that? Looking at some projections, they are 20-30 seats behind Con.AndyJS said:
The Sunday Times reported that Labour privately expects to come "5 to 10 seats" behind the Tories. Obviously that means they also expect to lose the popular vote.antifrank said:The New Statesman seems to think that Labour think that they're losing.
P.S Dan Hodges....I think he should wait until Thursday night before there's egg on his face.0 -
1993 was the breakthrough election for the Reform Party of Canada. They did a reverse takeover of the Canadian Conservatives ten years later.TheScreamingEagles said:
The plans for the Northern Powerhouses say otherwise.Alanbrooke said:
You really can't do sums can you ?TheScreamingEagles said:The Bow Group, one of the oldest Tory groups has urged Tories to vote tactically for UKIP in seats where the Tories aren't in contention.
I'm glad I'm part of the Tory Reform Group (and signed up to the No Turning Back Group)
If the kippers take northern seats from Labour where the Tories haven't a hope in hell of winning then Ed is toast.Makes sense
It's not even as if Cameron gives a shit about the Northern cities.
I'm not a fan of the Kippers. They'll be like an STD. Very hard to shift once they get a seat.
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It equally looks like they're really worried about gaining h&WGsurbiton said:
Looks like Bermondsey in play. Glasgow Central and Edinburgh South - slightly off the bottom in Scotland for Labour.AndreaParma_82 said:Who where on the labourdoorstep today
Balls: Croydon Central
Umunna: Wirral West
Owen Smith: Carmarthen East and West, Llanelli
Burnham: Loughborough, Sherwood
Benn: Elmet and Rothwell
Kendall: Glasgow Central, Edinburgh South
Dugher: Amber Valley
Watson: Bermondsey, Lewisham Deptford, Battarsea, Islington N&S, Hornsey
Twigg: Yardley, Wolverhampton SW
Kate Green: Warrington South
Sharon Hodgson: Recar
Clive Betts (Sheffield NE): Bedford
Byrne: Gloucester
Blomfield (Sheffield Central): Colne Valley
Kevan Jones: Stockton South
Helen Goodman: Stockton South
Fovargue (Makerfield): Bolton West
Lammy: Hornsey
Thornberry: Hornsey
Neil and Glenys Kinnock: Vale of Glamorgan
Cherie Blair: Reading West
Eddie Izzard: Scotland
Steve Coogan: Bermondsey, Deptford, Battarsea, Islington North and South; Hornsey
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How hard do you think it is to get your photograph taken with Alex Salmond or Nicola Sturgeon.ThomasNashe said:
Really? It looks persuasive to me?Dair said:
Lol desperate stuff from McDougall.SouthamObserver said:
That's simply untrue:Carnyx said:
It's the Labour party or elements in it which have been organising the behaviour seen today - see previous thread. Who and why remain to be seen, but at least two newspapers' journos have picked up on the issue at least on Twitter.Roger said:The Nats don't look good. Their thuggish behaviour should help get the tactical voters out in the secret of the polling booths.
The Scots have always been the most thoughtful of the four nations but for some reason they think their nationalism is different and more attractive than other forms of nationalism when everyone can see it's just the same just as chauvinistic and just as ugly.
https://twitter.com/blairmcdougall/status/595285375372890113
Here's Blair McDougall, Jim Murphy's campaign chief.
https://twitter.com/NeilHHDiamond/status/595285947320786944
Unlike the pics with Salmond and Sturgeon, that pic is not something completely outside Blair McDougall's control. He's there by choice.
0
