politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM phone poll naming Clegg has him holding Sheffield Halla

If nothing else, Labour should make sure that we see more of Oliver Coppard. Win or lose, he's clearly fought a fantastic campaign.

Farage, Kennedy and Jim Murphy would be three who I could imagine would receive a boost with named polling. Would this boost extend to standard MPs? I'm not sure..I think it'd only apply to candidates where people are tactical voting solely for the candidate themselves.

TSE told this poll that he was going to vote tactically for Clegg but changed his mind on the back of irritating behaviour on the part of the Lib Dems in the last few days with leaks and breaches of confidence. I would be amazed if he was alone.

I was going to vote tactically in Dundee West for a while. It is not easy and some of these tories will change their minds. I think this will be very close but with Nick holding on.

FPT: The Tories look like they're really going for Bath. A friend of mine just posted a picture from a rally with Cameron there today. A 15-minute rally speech on soundcloud has also just popped up on my Facebook feed.

They wouldn't bother if they didn't think it was in play. There's 3/1 still available with 888sport and Unibet. Looks like value to me.

Roger said:

The best PPB to date. Nothing flash just the most persuasive celebrity endorsement so far.

Which is more embarrassing? An endorsement from Russell Brand or Alan Partridge?

DavidL said:

TSE told this poll that he was going to vote tactically for Clegg but changed his mind on the back of irritating behaviour on the part of the Lib Dems in the last few days with leaks and breaches of confidence. I would be amazed if he was alone.

I was going to vote tactically in Dundee West for a while. It is not easy and some of these tories will change their minds. I think this will be very close but with Nick holding on.

I think it was another poll I took part in, I was polled on Wednesday.

Interesting that Cameron's in the South West today rather than defending his key marginals.

Breitbart has a rehashed version of the 'labour vote in freefall in marginals' story, FWIW.

Casino_Royale said:

FPT: The Tories look like they're really going for Bath. A friend of mine just posted a picture from a rally with Cameron there today. A 15-minute rally speech on soundcloud has also just popped up on my Facebook feed.

They wouldn't bother if they didn't think it was in play. There's 3/1 still available with 888sport and Unibet. Looks like value to me.

There are undoubtedly seats to be won in the south west and the Tories seem very focussed on the 23 more policy.

But there are seats to be lost in the midlands and London and I personally wish the Tories were paying more attention there. Every seat lost to Labour counts double in the largest party game.

On topic, great thread TSE.

I wonder if Clegg might be a special case? Very high profile name, with a lot of national attention from both sides, a huge amount of effort going on locally, with a lot of relentless tactical targeting of Tory voters by the LDs. Tory voters who know full well the consequences of letting Labour win instead.

I expect *some* similar effect might be present in most marginals with first-time incumbent MPs. But not to the same extent.

Philip_Thompson said:

Regarding the previous threads list of when to expect polls - is a Tuesday night poll for a Wednesday paper listed as Tuesday or Wednesday?

As you read it.

IOS said:

Does anyone have the tables. The 18-30 segment and how its weighted is going to be crucial to the validity of this result.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/264086543/Hallam-BPC-1

The tables look decent for Coppard to me, I doubt Clegg will win by 7%. But I think he'll win.

If I was in Hallam I would vote for Clegg. He's been a good Tory.

Shame the same can't be said in Twickenham ;-)

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've spoken to a few Sheffield Hallam Tories today, most of them are voting tactically for Nick Clegg.

I'm the odd one out.

Hang your head in shame Dorothy.

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT: The Tories look like they're really going for Bath. A friend of mine just posted a picture from a rally with Cameron there today. A 15-minute rally speech on soundcloud has also just popped up on my Facebook feed.

They wouldn't bother if they didn't think it was in play. There's 3/1 still available with 888sport and Unibet. Looks like value to me.

There are undoubtedly seats to be won in the south west and the Tories seem very focussed on the 23 more policy.

But there are seats to be lost in the midlands and London and I personally wish the Tories were paying more attention there. Every seat lost to Labour counts double in the largest party game.

Counting on a late surge and incumbent bonus to save those seats so they can focus on the potential gains? A bold strategy if that is the case, and bold has not been the hallmark of their campaign from the outside at least.

Yes, very brave Prime Minister.

@patrickwintour: Labour may look for coalition with LDs if it cannot form a majority government on own, says BBC. BBC set to disclose election date next.

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT: The Tories look like they're really going for Bath. A friend of mine just posted a picture from a rally with Cameron there today. A 15-minute rally speech on soundcloud has also just popped up on my Facebook feed.

They wouldn't bother if they didn't think it was in play. There's 3/1 still available with 888sport and Unibet. Looks like value to me.

There are undoubtedly seats to be won in the south west and the Tories seem very focussed on the 23 more policy.

But there are seats to be lost in the midlands and London and I personally wish the Tories were paying more attention there. Every seat lost to Labour counts double in the largest party game.

Counting on a late surge and incumbent bonus to save those seats so they can focus on the potential gains? A bold strategy if that is the case, and bold has not been the hallmark of their campaign from the outside at least.

Probably just think the Lib Dem vote is so soft that there are easier pickings in the SW and a better return for their efforts. But with near 100 2010 gains in play I am not sure I agree entirely with their priorities at the moment.

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT: The Tories look like they're really going for Bath. A friend of mine just posted a picture from a rally with Cameron there today. A 15-minute rally speech on soundcloud has also just popped up on my Facebook feed.

They wouldn't bother if they didn't think it was in play. There's 3/1 still available with 888sport and Unibet. Looks like value to me.

There are undoubtedly seats to be won in the south west and the Tories seem very focussed on the 23 more policy.

But there are seats to be lost in the midlands and London and I personally wish the Tories were paying more attention there. Every seat lost to Labour counts double in the largest party game.

Yeah, I do worry about that.

Clegg holding Hallam rules out Lab-Lib Dem I reckon. A pusch on Clegg may still well come methinks though.

Also this poll points towards Huppert being very safe indeed.

OK, it seemingly makes a difference when naming the candidates. This might also hold true for other seats. But it makes you wonder about an electorate that cannot remember the names of the candidates. Moreover, in Sheffield Hallam there is another gentleman by the name of Clegg on the ballot paper namely Steve Clegg of the English Democrats. If polling results change substantially if one names "Nick Clegg," how many voters will mark their cross next to the name of "Steve Clegg" of the English Democrats who appears right below Nick Clegg? In view of many voters seemingly changing their preferences once names are brought into play, this seems a valid question to ask.

https://www.facebook.com/Steven.Clegg.English.Democrats

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've spoken to a few Sheffield Hallam Tories today, most of them are voting tactically for Nick Clegg.

I'm the odd one out.

Hang your head in shame Dorothy.

Well I've filled in my postal vote, but I've not handed it in yet.

I can still change my mind.

(But I won't, if he had been slightly ahead or behind, I might have considered it)

I've been saying for ages he's safe. I'm always right

I think he'll hold on and if he does you'll piss off one half of the LDs.

Chris123 said:

OK, it seemingly makes a difference when naming the candidates. This might also hold true for other seats. But it makes you wonder about an electorate that cannot remember the names of the candidates. Moreover, in Sheffield Hallam is that there is another gentleman by the name of Clegg on the ballot paper namely Steve Clegg of the English Democrats. If the result of the poll changes substantially only if name "Nick Clegg," how many voters will mark their cross next to the name of "Steve Clegg" of the English Democrats who appears right below Nick Clegg?

Oh how'd we'd laugh...

Give him 1% from Clegg for that tbh.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Senior Labour figures are considering the option of forming a minority coalition with the Liberal Democrats, the BBC has learned.

The move is to counter claims a Labour government would lack legitimacy if it won fewer seats than the Conservatives.

Senior Labour sources say such a coalition would have collectively more seats than the Conservatives.

They hope this might give an Ed Miliband-led administration greater legitimacy in the eyes of voters.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32584903

I can't see the Lib Dems going for that if Labour are behind on seats. It'd be the death of the party. Clegg will try and block it anyway.

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Regarding the previous threads list of when to expect polls - is a Tuesday night poll for a Wednesday paper listed as Tuesday or Wednesday?

As you read it.

Is that sarcastic? I read it as confusing which is why I'm asking lol.

Wasn't meant to be.

The days Mike has given is when he expects the poll to be first published online.

For example the Guardian ICM poll is going to be in Thursday's edition, but online on Wednesday.

My current forecast for national shares:

Con 33.5%
Lab 30.5%
UKIP 14.5%
LD 12.5%
Greens 4%

If Nick does hang on by the proverbial hair from a lower part of his anatomy this would be another example (just) of where the Labour vote becomes less efficient. In 2010 they scored really appallingly where they did not win or were at least in contention.

I still think they are going to accrue a lot more wasted votes from red Liberals and previous tactical voters in seats that do them very little good this time. Conversely, the supposed "swing" to Labour in the South referred to at the end of the last thread is evidence that massive Tory majorities might become smaller majorities with the application of UKIP meaning that their vote becomes more efficient.

There have been some indications that the Tories might be doing better in some of the marginals, although not as much as I would like. If so this would suggest my theory has some substance to it.

I think that there will still be a bias in the system in favour of Labour but it will be significantly less than it was in 2005 or 2010.

I reckon we will se a fair bit of Tory tactical voting for LDs on Thursday. It may well save a few of them. Lynn Featherstone in Hornsey could well be a beneficiary. I expect Labour to win less than ten LD seats.

I wonder if at some stage we may see the Democrat bit dropped from the name and a return to it just being the Liberal party.

TSE despite all his humming and arrhing was never going to vote anything other than Conservative .
FWIW I think Clegg will win by 10-12 % , anyone who knows the various parts that make up Hallam would see that 30% is around the upper limit for Labour in the constituency

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Regarding the previous threads list of when to expect polls - is a Tuesday night poll for a Wednesday paper listed as Tuesday or Wednesday?

As you read it.

Is that sarcastic? I read it as confusing which is why I'm asking lol.

Wasn't meant to be.

The days Mike has given is when he expects the poll to be first published online.

For example the Guardian ICM poll is going to be in Thursday's edition, but online on Wednesday.

Thanks.

The BBC piece is worded as though the LDs would be privileged to even be asked by Labour and would obviously support the proposal.

As it is the LDs will speak first to the Tories because of the most seats + most votes point, and Clegg has a natural preference to deal with Cameron anyway.

SO

"I wonder if at some stage we may see the Democrat bit dropped from the name and a return to it just being the Liberal party."

"Blue Liberals" has a ring about it

PS Any more of Nicolas Witchel's grovelling obsequiousness and I think I'm going to be sick

AndyJS said:

My current forecast for national shares:

Con 33.5%
Lab 30.5%
UKIP 14.5%
LD 12.5%
Greens 4%

Mine are:

Con 36.5%
Lab 31.5%
UKIP 12.0%
LD 10.5%
Greens 3.5%

Roger said:

The best PPB to date. Nothing flash just the most persuasive celebrity endorsement so far.

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/watch-steve-coogan-urges-people-9176553

The curious thing about Steve Coogan is that Alan Partridge and Gareth Cheeseman are actually nicer than he is.

MarkSenior said:

TSE despite all his humming and arrhing was never going to vote anything other than Conservative .
FWIW I think Clegg will win by 10-12 % , anyone who knows the various parts that make up Hallam would see that 30% is around the upper limit for Labour in the constituency

It really should be. It is not a seat where they have ever been in contention. But there will also be an anti-Clegg vote, possibly amongst some disillusioned Lib Dems for a start. Tactical voting works both ways.

I reckon we will se a fair bit of Tory tactical voting for LDs on Thursday.

Just as interesting might be the possibility tory/kipper tactical, particularly in the North. Labour would have lost H&M if the tory rump had voted tactically.

AndyJS said:

My current forecast for national shares:

Con 33.5%
Lab 30.5%
UKIP 14.5%
LD 12.5%
Greens 4%

So you reckon that Labour will only get 1% more than in 2010, when Labour recorded their second worst result. Labour voters did not go out to vote and this time around they will also get tactical votes from a good portion of the 2010 Lib Dem voters.

My prediction on national shares is.

Con 35.5%
Lab 33.5%
Lib Dem 13.5%
UKIP 10%
Greens 4%

taffys said:

I reckon we will se a fair bit of Tory tactical voting for LDs on Thursday.

Just as interesting might be the possibility tory/kipper tactical, particularly in the North. Labour would have lost H&M if the tory rump had voted tactically.

A GE turnout will see Labour win by around 7,000 in H & M

Roger said:

Scott n'

"Which is more embarrassing? An endorsement from Russell Brand or Alan Partridge?"

More embarrassing Russell Brand though probably more influential. His nine million followers are obviously not the brightest so will probably do what he tells them. Whether they have the grey matter to find their way to the polling station is questionable.

Alan Partridge had an honest tale to tell about his humble beginnings and how Labour saw him and his family through. He didn't think the same of the Tories and didn't believe they shared values of community.

For those to whom it struck a chord it was impressive. Like one of those charity ads or red nose appeals. It had instant impact. His final words 'Do you really want another five years of a Tory Government?' will strike a chord

They strike a chord with you as someone who doesn't like the Tories but then he's not swinging your vote is he. Does it strike a chord with either swing voters or apathetic voters who might not turnout is the question.

Roger said:

'Do you really want another five years of a Tory Government?'

If the alternative is the Ed'n'Nicola show?

Hell Yes!!!

surbiton said:

AndyJS said:

My current forecast for national shares:

Con 33.5%
Lab 30.5%
UKIP 14.5%
LD 12.5%
Greens 4%

I was taking it seriously until I read LD 12.5%. Good 4% too high !

Lib Dems will get tactical votes from Labour supporters where Labour cannot win, so their vote share will be higher than stated in polling.

hucks67 said:

Do Tories really like Clegg ?

I do.

@kiranstacey: This protestor last wk told me he wasn't SNP. This is where I next saw his mask. SNP said someone dropped it round. http://t.co/f18P8wwbLK

Roger said:

The best PPB to date. Nothing flash just the most persuasive celebrity endorsement so far.

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/watch-steve-coogan-urges-people-9176553

I find it deeply offensive that the plethora of luvvies that Labour are rolling out think that fairness, honesty and decency are the monopoly of the Labour party.

I'd laugh, if it didn't make me so angry.

Clegg will be getting some benefit from being deputy PM, and the increased name recognition that brings, though being party leader would have made him fairly high profile anyway.

The other Lib Dem ministers should also be get some increased name recognition from being in office, so any swing against them should be less than for the average Lib Dem MP, which might be enough to save a few seats.

I suppose I need to decide who to vote for soon.

I wonder what these Tory tactical voters will make of Clegg's obvious inability to keep private conversations private? It plays right into the 'you can't trust the LibDems' narrative...