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SystemSystem Posts: 12,681
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Friday afternoon/evening pollercoaster – rolling thread

@LordAshcroft marginals polling:
The big picture is that this is still completely wide open

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    I don't like to brag, which is one of many many fine qualities but since I've started canvassing in Pudsey it is has gone from Lab gain to Con Hold.

    CCHQ wishes they could clone me.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,894
    No Greens in Wirral West don't forget (2% in the poll)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I don't like to brag, which is one of many many fine qualities but since I've started canvassing in Pudsey it is has gone from Lab gain to Con Hold.

    CCHQ wishes they could clone me.

    I think you need to congratulate yourself on your margin of error magnificence.

    I spotted and got on Pudsey when it was 9-4 anyway.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Artist said:

    No Greens in Wirral West don't forget (2% in the poll)

    Will they vote for the WWWW ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    EICIPM .
  • trubluetrublue Posts: 103
    I'm disappointed in any scottish tories considering tactical voting lab to help beat the snp. Every seat they hold in scotland makes it that much more difficult to stop red ed getting into number 10. Don't do it.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    About 40 Labour gains from Con?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    North Cornwall LD hold?
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,832
    Artist said:

    No Greens in Wirral West don't forget (2% in the poll)

    Is that not the perfect example of why at this stage you should be naming all listed candidates?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    RodCrosby said:

    About 40 Labour gains from Con?

    275=275 Thai ?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    I know we're all grown up boys & girls.....but AFAICS only Battersea is outwith MOE......

    In other words 'we dont know'......
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pudsey: Con only leads by 1%. Easily within GOTV territory.

    Question is, does this mean 50 Labour gains from the Tories ?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2015
    7/8 Tory holds, 1 gain and Jim Murphy on a knife-edge, imho.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Just posting my "reference position for polls" from the last thread. These are the average result from each polling company since the dissolution of Parliament (with one exception - for YouGov, it's the average since the methodology change). I noticed that all movement since then, when each company was taken in isolation, is completely compatible with no change during the campaign. If any pollster veers away from their baseline, that would be significant.:

    Phone Polls:
    ICM: Con 36; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 10
    Ipsos-MORI: Con 34; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 10
    Lord Ashcroft: Con 34; Lab 31; LD 9; UKIP 12
    ComRes: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 9; UKIP 11
    (Average across phone poll averages:
    Con 35, Lab 32, LD 9, UKIP 11)

    Internet Polls:
    YouGov: Con 34; Lab 35; LD 8; UKIP 13
    Populus: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 9; UKIP 15
    Opinium: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 13
    Survation: Con 32; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 17
    Panelbase: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 17
    TNS: Con 33; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 16
    (Average across Internet poll averages:
    Con 33; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 15)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    edited May 2015
    So, Tories edging up in overall polling, but still not making significant gains as a general trend. Labour doing better in the marginal polling than nationwide thanks to continued LD collapse, but not making a clean sweep there either even if some gains will definitely happen. Only 6 days left. The eventual outcome remains fairly clear, but the exact form it takes, and the balance, very much unclear.

    Personally I'm now hoping for the top two to remain on the same number of seats by offsetting all their losses with gains elsewhere. After 5 years of arguments and efforts, it would be funny to see things remain exactly as they were in terms of seat numbers between them. Though obviously only one of them would be happy about that.

    I will say that I never thought Con would get close to matching their vote share in 2010. If they can manage that it would be quite the achievement. Exceeding it would in many ways remarkable, even if that would not guarantee them a win depending on how Labour manage.

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Tories holding twelve of Labour's top 50, and within six points on another fourteen.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    This is all rather weird... Pearson vs Murphy

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/32543893
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    trublue said:

    I'm disappointed in any scottish tories considering tactical voting lab to help beat the snp. Every seat they hold in scotland makes it that much more difficult to stop red ed getting into number 10. Don't do it.

    I have always had a secret liking for Scottish Tories !
  • enfantenfant Posts: 34
    Unless there has been an overnight sea change,Labour will gain Croydon Central
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    Seriously tempted to follow Ruth and put some monies on the Tories in DCT as well as Berwickshire. Even in this bizarre election the swings in DCT and Berwickshire look very, very high. These were strong no areas.

    But who knows? It is a tidal wave.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    kle4 said:

    So, Tories edging up in overall polling, but still not making significant gains as a general trend. Labour doing better in the marginal polling than nationwide thanks to continued LD collapse, but not making a clean sweep there either even if some gains will definitely happen. Only 6 days left. The eventual outcome remains fairly clear, but the exact form it takes, and the balance, very much unclear.

    Personally I'm now hoping for the top two to remain on the same number of seats by offsetting all their losses with gains elsewhere. After 5 years of arguments and efforts, it would be funny to see things remain exactly as they were in terms of seat numbers between them. Though obviously only one of them would be happy about that.

    I will say that I never thought Con would get close to matching their vote share in 2010. If they can manage that it would be quite the achievement. Exceeding it would in many ways remarkable, even if that would not guarantee them a win depending on how Labour manage.

    Profit-taking time in SPIN spreads.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Tissue_Price said:

    7/8 Tory holds, 1 gain and Jim Murphy on a knife-edge, imho.

    RodCrosby said:

    About 40 Labour gains from Con?

    Can you both be right ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,908
    Only 11 phone polls during April*, but no less than 55 online polls

    *fieldwork end-dates 1st April to 30th April
  • EICIPMEICIPM Posts: 55
    surbiton said:

    EICIPM .

    #Redtacular
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    DavidL said:

    Seriously tempted to follow Ruth and put some monies on the Tories in DCT as well as Berwickshire. Even in this bizarre election the swings in DCT and Berwickshire look very, very high. These were strong no areas.

    But who knows? It is a tidal wave.

    BRS a far better shot than DCT imo.

    But ZERO SCON looks very likely.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Labour ahead in Peterborough but behind in top London targets?! Bizarre.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    I would, once again, counsel caution in taking the different swings in the Ashcroft polling too literally. There's likely to be a fair amount of statistical noise in the figures for any given seat, so concluding that (say) Pudsey is a Con Hold but Peterborough is a Lab gain is really not statistically sound. Better to conclude simply that both look too close to call.

    Battersea, on the other hand...
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino Remember Ashcroft had the Tories gaining Roxburgh and Berwickshire to make up for any loss in Dumfrieshire, so they would actually retain their 1 Scottish seat

    I suspect DCT effect will hit BRS, no-one expected SNP to be so close so it will attract further support.

    However I am on the Cons at 6/4 so, whatever.
    I initially thought that but then considered it is the Liberals left to be squeezed in BRS whereas in DCT it is Labour. Labour will naturally coalesce as an anti-Tory vote. Liberals are nowhere near as likely and could easily go the other way.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Seriously tempted to follow Ruth and put some monies on the Tories in DCT as well as Berwickshire. Even in this bizarre election the swings in DCT and Berwickshire look very, very high. These were strong no areas.

    But who knows? It is a tidal wave.

    BRS a far better shot than DCT imo.

    But ZERO SCON looks very likely.
    I think the Borders may well all be going SNP.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Norwich North unsurprising given by election unwind
    Peterborough very surprising
    Croydon ought to be an easy hold, the Tories have Pellings 6.5 to squeeze as well as a lead of 4% from last time
    Batter sea no swing and Tories up? Questionable
    North Cornwall, need named polling given the disparity twixt national and constituency figures
    Wirral West easy peaty Lab gain, NW seat. Only 4% swing though.....
    Pudsey minimal swing too - has London jumped ship?
    Looks like ending up about 2.5% swing to Labour to me nationally in E and W giving a Tory election lead of about 4 to 5% and a very messy outcome.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Dave is gone on these and Ed is PM.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    surbiton said:

    Pudsey: Con only leads by 1%. Easily within GOTV territory.

    Question is, does this mean 50 Labour gains from the Tories ?

    you could also say that plenty of current 'lab holds' are within GOTV of being saved by the blues...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I would, once again, counsel caution in taking the different swings in the Ashcroft polling too literally. There's likely to be a fair amount of statistical noise in the figures for any given seat, so concluding that (say) Pudsey is a Con Hold but Peterborough is a Lab gain is really not statistically sound. Better to conclude simply that both look too close to call.

    Battersea, on the other hand...

    Thanks for the 5-6 tip ages back, should have got more on though.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Would not take too much of a swing to blue in the last week and all the Con marginals in this poll would stay blue.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    By the way, the North Cornwall polling adds to my suspicions about how reliable Ashcroft's Q2 method is. There's STILL a huge disconnect between how people say they generally intend to vote, and how they would vote when "thinking specifically about your constituency". Surely at this stage, with everyone in an election mindset, all those people would be answering Lib Dem for any voting intention question if they were actually going to do it?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    It will make an excellent theme for a thread just after the GE: check these results against the actual outcome.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Don't think we can quite say EICIPM if Labour are lagging in London. That's their banker. If the Tories outperform in London then maybe DIPM.

    Tulip Siddiq must be bricking it in H&K....
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Danny565 said:

    By the way, the North Cornwall polling adds to my suspicions about how reliable Ashcroft's Q2 method is. There's STILL a huge disconnect between how people say they generally intend to vote, and how they would vote when "thinking specifically about your constituency". Surely at this stage, with everyone in an election mindset, all those people would be answering Lib Dem for any voting intention question if they were actually going to do it?

    Q2 might as well be "Do you want to reconsider?" ;)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The idea of a 0% or 1% swing to Labour from Con in London, even Battersea, is unthinkable.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Danny565 said:

    By the way, the North Cornwall polling adds to my suspicions about how reliable Ashcroft's Q2 method is. There's STILL a huge disconnect between how people say they generally intend to vote, and how they would vote when "thinking specifically about your constituency". Surely at this stage, with everyone in an election mindset, all those people would be answering Lib Dem for any voting intention question if they were actually going to do it?

    I was about to make the same point.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Individual polls should be treated with great caution. This is especially true of constituency polls.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Can we all agree the idea that the Tories are going to be knocking in gains of Labour is a joke.
  • DevonExileDevonExile Posts: 12
    Stunned by Peterborough, which I had down as a pretty safe Conservative hold.

    Seems to me that UKIP, being squeezed in many places, are staying strong there and may cost the Tories the seat. More UKIP voters rule out Cons than any other of the English seats polled today. If the squeeze doesn't happen, an unlikely Labour gain.

    Also think Tories will take North Cornwall (sadly). 51% of UKIP voters there ready to consider Tories, and the SW Tories seem to be (with some limited evidence) very optimistic.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    surbiton said:

    The idea of a 0% or 1% swing to Labour from Con in London, even Battersea, is unthinkable.

    Gentrification there. And first-time incumbency.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    Seriously tempted to follow Ruth and put some monies on the Tories in DCT as well as Berwickshire. Even in this bizarre election the swings in DCT and Berwickshire look very, very high. These were strong no areas.

    But who knows? It is a tidal wave.

    The first poll in DCT put SNP=Yes vote with a sizeable Other (mostly I imagine Green votes)

    What this meant was that SNP-Con was tied, that pulled in a lot of the Other vote and squeezed the LAbour anti-Tory vote. I am pretty confident that Mundell is gone.

    BRS is wide open and along with D&G two of the most interesting seats this election, quite possibly 1st to 3rd covered by less than a thousand votes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Danny565 said:

    Labour ahead in Peterborough but behind in top London targets?! Bizarre.

    Home counties urban effect.

    I think either Reading could be a big surprise !
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Seriously tempted to follow Ruth and put some monies on the Tories in DCT as well as Berwickshire. Even in this bizarre election the swings in DCT and Berwickshire look very, very high. These were strong no areas.

    But who knows? It is a tidal wave.

    BRS a far better shot than DCT imo.

    But ZERO SCON looks very likely.
    I think the Borders may well all be going SNP.
    I will certainly be tempering my pro-Tory postion in the Borders this evening.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    IOS said:

    Can we all agree the idea that the Tories are going to be knocking in gains of Labour is a joke.

    Nope. Think it's unlikely but not a joke.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    as Lord Ashcroft likes reminding us these polls are snapshots and not predictions
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    dyedwoolie said:

    Norwich North unsurprising given by election unwind
    Peterborough very surprising
    Croydon ought to be an easy hold, the Tories have Pellings 6.5 to squeeze as well as a lead of 4% from last time
    Batter sea no swing and Tories up? Questionable
    North Cornwall, need named polling given the disparity twixt national and constituency figures
    Wirral West easy peaty Lab gain, NW seat. Only 4% swing though.....
    Pudsey minimal swing too - has London jumped ship?
    Looks like ending up about 2.5% swing to Labour to me nationally in E and W giving a Tory election lead of about 4 to 5% and a very messy outcome.

    Battersea is Tory hold in my book. Some libs are going red but not enough. Blue vote def holding up. Lab are throwing everything at it and that is panicking Blues but it should be fine.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,795
    Danny565 said:

    Labour ahead in Peterborough but behind in top London targets?! Bizarre.

    Peterborough may be a rare example of a reverse incumbency bonus.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @NCPoliticsUK: Of the four CON-held seats that #Ashcroft had polled previously (in Feb/March), the CON-LAB swing is down from 4.4% to 3.1% #GE2015

    @pppolitics: Latest batch of marginal polls from @LordAshcroft seem to show things picking up for the Conservatives overall. Cameron now 11/10 to be PM
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    IOS said:

    Can we all agree the idea that the Tories are going to be knocking in gains of Labour is a joke.

    Wishful thinking on your part.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,313
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Danny565 said:

    Labour ahead in Peterborough but behind in top London targets?! Bizarre.

    Peterborough may be a rare example of a reverse incumbency bonus.
    That's no way to talk about a pb alumnus.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Kudos for the term "Pollercoaster"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    antifrank said:

    Individual polls should be treated with great caution. This is especially true of constituency polls.

    Well I hope Lab ain't holding Cumbernauld :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    Pulpstar Tissue No Dair is right, Berwickshire will be a Tory gain as the last Ashcroft poll said, 3rd place Liberals are more likely to vote tactically for the Tories v SNP there, 3rd place Labour more likely to vote tactically for SNP v Tories in Dumfriesshire. Tory John Lamont is already the MSP for the Berwickshire constituency, winning the seat even in the SNP landslide of 2011
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    All this polling would be banned in America as a cruel and unusual punishment.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Either the betting markets are being driven by people who have carefully analysed that momentum is all and everything or it is awash with Con mug punters.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    frpenkridge said:

    All this polling would be banned in America as a cruel and unusual punishment.

    Are you joking? There's far more polling here!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,983
    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 31m31 minutes ago
    Avg Con to Lab swing in Ashcroft Con/Lab marginals is 3.3%
    6 retweets 2 favorites
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    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 31m31 minutes ago
    @roadto326 And that's with a week still to go...
    0 retweets 0 favorites
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    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 28m28 minutes ago
    @DPJHodges needs to be a Lab to Con swing for your prediction though Dan
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    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 27m27 minutes ago
    @roadto326 For a majority...
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    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 23m23 minutes ago
    @DPJHodges wasn't that your prediction?

    No reply in last 23mins
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Danny565 said:

    Labour ahead in Peterborough but behind in top London targets?! Bizarre.

    Peterborough may be a rare example of a reverse incumbency bonus.
    Chortle .... :smile:

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    For those here at PB.com who looked at my LinkedIn account recently, it has been inactive for years (as you may have noticed) so I have taken this opportunity to close it. I joined it years ago when it was a business networking site rather than a recruitment jamboree and CV exchange.

    Just my small contribution to removing clutter from the net. :smile:
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,795
    edited May 2015
    JohnO said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Danny565 said:

    Labour ahead in Peterborough but behind in top London targets?! Bizarre.

    Peterborough may be a rare example of a reverse incumbency bonus.
    That's no way to talk about a pb alumnus.
    Lol!

    Can you imagine what I might have said if he wasn't?!

    [Our newer readers may wish to know that Stewart Jackson was once a regular poster here, though I think it fair to say he was never in danger of winning the Poster of the Year contest.]
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    surbiton said:

    The idea of a 0% or 1% swing to Labour from Con in London, even Battersea, is unthinkable.

    "unthinkable"

    I don't think you know what that word means.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Croydon - Pelling. 6.5 Tory vote to squeeze for the blues. Safe as Battersea.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar Tissue No Dair is right, Berwickshire will be a Tory gain as the last Ashcroft poll said, 3rd place Liberals are more likely to vote tactically for the Tories v SNP there, 3rd place Labour more likely to vote tactically for SNP v Tories in Dumfriesshire. Tory John Lamont is already the MSP for the Berwickshire constituency, winning the seat even in the SNP landslide of 2011

    But the Liberals aren't "in 3rd place" as far as most normal people are concerned - they're the incumbents. Red Libs ---> SNP and it all looks far too close to call.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    trublue Rubbish, every SNP MP will vote down a Cameron government and Murphy is a staunch unionist. I would agree that Tory tactical voting will be even more likely next year when the contest is Labour v SNP for power at Holyrood and stopping an SNP majority, than Tory v Labour at Westminster as next week
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,180
    Squeaky bum time at CCHQ.

    So near but so far. But it's all over - Labour largest party comfortably and Ed PM.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks for the 5-6 tip ages back, should have got more on though.

    Story of this election!
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar Tissue No Dair is right, Berwickshire will be a Tory gain as the last Ashcroft poll said, 3rd place Liberals are more likely to vote tactically for the Tories v SNP there, 3rd place Labour more likely to vote tactically for SNP v Tories in Dumfriesshire. Tory John Lamont is already the MSP for the Berwickshire constituency, winning the seat even in the SNP landslide of 2011

    I'm not saying BRS will be Tory, I'm saying it's not as clear cut as DCT.

    Going by DCT, the early Liberal breaks went to the SNP in larger numbers than any other party when their vote dissolves. This can just as easily be read that the Liberals in BRS will break SNP as a "keep out the Tory" vote. Which gives the SNP a solid gain.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    DevonExile said:

    Stunned by Peterborough, which I had down as a pretty safe Conservative hold.

    Seems to me that UKIP, being squeezed in many places, are staying strong there and may cost the Tories the seat. More UKIP voters rule out Cons than any other of the English seats polled today. If the squeeze doesn't happen, an unlikely Labour gain.

    Also think Tories will take North Cornwall (sadly). 51% of UKIP voters there ready to consider Tories, and the SW Tories seem to be (with some limited evidence) very optimistic.

    Why should the Conservatives take North Cornwall ?
    2009 UA elections in the North Cornwall divisions LD 10 seats Con 8 seats Ind 3 seata
    2013 UA elections in the North Cornwall divisions LD 15 seats Con 2 seats Ind 4 seats
    Since then LDs have gained 1 seat from Ind in a by election .


  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Mr. Sykes, it's one poll, and there's always statistical noise.

    Not long to wait to find out how things will play out.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I would, once again, counsel caution in taking the different swings in the Ashcroft polling too literally. There's likely to be a fair amount of statistical noise in the figures for any given seat, so concluding that (say) Pudsey is a Con Hold but Peterborough is a Lab gain is really not statistically sound. Better to conclude simply that both look too close to call.

    Battersea, on the other hand...

    Completely agree.
    I've got my own model using the Ashcroft polls (I adjust older ones by using the average swing since they were taken. Flawed, but it's the best we've got). Any that are less than +/-5 I put down as 50:50. Any between 5-9 are 75:25 in favour of the leader. Any that are 10+ I assign to the leader.

    It's crude, but I think any more precision would be artificial.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Danny565 said:

    Labour ahead in Peterborough but behind in top London targets?! Bizarre.

    Peterborough may be a rare example of a reverse incumbency bonus.
    He's not exactly my cup of tea, Peter, but I struggle to see how the Tories will do worse in Peterborough than 2005, 2001 and even 1997.

    Even Ashcroft polls have an MoE. I expect him to hold.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Joyce guilty of assault....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    Danny565 said:

    By the way, the North Cornwall polling adds to my suspicions about how reliable Ashcroft's Q2 method is. There's STILL a huge disconnect between how people say they generally intend to vote, and how they would vote when "thinking specifically about your constituency". Surely at this stage, with everyone in an election mindset, all those people would be answering Lib Dem for any voting intention question if they were actually going to do it?

    That has been the suspicion of every partisan Labour, Conservative, SNP and UKIP voter on this site!

    To test this, I thought I'd run through other marginal polls from Ashcroft, particularly those in areas where the LibDems have meaningful local presence. If the LibDems jump between Q1 and Q2 in those seats, then the answer to Q2 is clearly suspect. If they do not, it suggests that people are prompted to think about their local constituency. (If people are being prompted to change their mind, then the effect would be evident everywhere, and not just in LibDem seats.)

    It turns out that in seats without LibDem MPs the average jump between questions 1 and 2 is 0.3%. And in many seats - such as Battersea, Croydon Central and Stourbridge - the LibDems actually go backwards between Q1 and Q2.

    For this reason, I think we have to accept that the difference between Q1 and Q2 is not picking up some kind of "council" election effect, as posited by PaulMidBeds, for example.

    This does not make it accurate, of course. But I suspect punters ignore it at their peril.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Alistair said:

    Either the betting markets are being driven by people who have carefully analysed that momentum is all and everything or it is awash with Con mug punters.

    It's mug punters

    There are PLENTY of cracking Tory bets out there still.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    TP Liberals in the Scottish Borders are certainly not red liberals, but basically one nation Tories, who are highly educated and loathe the SNP. The Tories already hold the seat in the Scottish Parliament and they can read the polls, they will back Lamont
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    edited May 2015
    marke09 said:

    as Lord Ashcroft likes reminding us these polls are snapshots and not predictions

    That's a copout from the good lord. He knows and everyone knows people use polls are predictors, and they can even help drive events in some instances. Snapshot may be technically correct, but trivializes the impact.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Personally I think Lab 40-50 gains of Con sounds about right. Add in another 10 of the Libs and we could be looking at squeaking a majority ..... if it wasn't for the bloody SNP.

    Key hope: If there is a swing happening for Jim its happening for other Labour MPs. Holding on to 15 as opposed to 0 could be pretty handy!
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Danny565 said:

    By the way, the North Cornwall polling adds to my suspicions about how reliable Ashcroft's Q2 method is. There's STILL a huge disconnect between how people say they generally intend to vote, and how they would vote when "thinking specifically about your constituency". Surely at this stage, with everyone in an election mindset, all those people would be answering Lib Dem for any voting intention question if they were actually going to do it?

    I was about to make the same point.
    Thought experiment: if you were shown the Ashcroft Q1 and Q2 and told they were from polling in an unspecified country, not the UK, and you were asked to reconstruct the electoral system in that country based on the premise that Q1 and Q2 were sensible questions to ask, would your answer remotely resemble the UK system? I think people who answer Q2 differently from Q1 do so because they do not understand it.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MarkSenior said:

    DevonExile said:

    Stunned by Peterborough, which I had down as a pretty safe Conservative hold.

    Seems to me that UKIP, being squeezed in many places, are staying strong there and may cost the Tories the seat. More UKIP voters rule out Cons than any other of the English seats polled today. If the squeeze doesn't happen, an unlikely Labour gain.

    Also think Tories will take North Cornwall (sadly). 51% of UKIP voters there ready to consider Tories, and the SW Tories seem to be (with some limited evidence) very optimistic.

    Why should the Conservatives take North Cornwall ?
    2009 UA elections in the North Cornwall divisions LD 10 seats Con 8 seats Ind 3 seata
    2013 UA elections in the North Cornwall divisions LD 15 seats Con 2 seats Ind 4 seats
    Since then LDs have gained 1 seat from Ind in a by election .


    Because you won it by 6.4% when you were polling 23% and now you're polling 9%? It's impressive that it's close, I'll give you that.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar Tissue No Dair is right, Berwickshire will be a Tory gain as the last Ashcroft poll said, 3rd place Liberals are more likely to vote tactically for the Tories v SNP there, 3rd place Labour more likely to vote tactically for SNP v Tories in Dumfriesshire. Tory John Lamont is already the MSP for the Berwickshire constituency, winning the seat even in the SNP landslide of 2011

    It's hard to compare 2007 to 2011 due to boundary changes but although Con won in 2011 the LD lost 16.5 percentage points of their vote, 2 points went to LAbour, 6 points went to Con and 9 points went to the SNP. According to the Ashcroft poll the massive slew of Lib Dems who have abandoned the party have gone to the SNP.

    So it looks like LD defectors favour the SNP.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar Tissue No Dair is right, Berwickshire will be a Tory gain as the last Ashcroft poll said, 3rd place Liberals are more likely to vote tactically for the Tories v SNP there, 3rd place Labour more likely to vote tactically for SNP v Tories in Dumfriesshire. Tory John Lamont is already the MSP for the Berwickshire constituency, winning the seat even in the SNP landslide of 2011

    What a load of drivel . The LDems are in 1st place not 3rd that is why they are defending the seat . No more than a handful of local voters will be even aware of Lord Ashcroft and his poll but are aware that Michael Moore is the MP .
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    IOS said:

    Personally I think Lab 40-50 gains of Con sounds about right. Add in another 10 of the Libs and we could be looking at squeaking a majority ..... if it wasn't for the bloody SNP.

    Key hope: If there is a swing happening for Jim its happening for other Labour MPs. Holding on to 15 as opposed to 0 could be pretty handy!

    Most of the other Labour MPs don't have a handy 25% Tory vote to squeeze!
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,795
    Casino_Royale said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Danny565 said:

    Labour ahead in Peterborough but behind in top London targets?! Bizarre.

    Peterborough may be a rare example of a reverse incumbency bonus.
    He's not exactly my cup of tea, Peter, but I struggle to see how the Tories will do worse in Peterborough than 2005, 2001 and even 1997.

    Even Ashcroft polls have an MoE. I expect him to hold.
    Probably, regrettably.....

    There are some politicians I would vote for whatever their Party, and others I would not vote for under any circumstances.

    Guess where Stewart Jackson falls?
  • DevonExileDevonExile Posts: 12
    MarkSenior said:

    DevonExile said:

    Stunned by Peterborough, which I had down as a pretty safe Conservative hold.

    Seems to me that UKIP, being squeezed in many places, are staying strong there and may cost the Tories the seat. More UKIP voters rule out Cons than any other of the English seats polled today. If the squeeze doesn't happen, an unlikely Labour gain.

    Also think Tories will take North Cornwall (sadly). 51% of UKIP voters there ready to consider Tories, and the SW Tories seem to be (with some limited evidence) very optimistic.

    Why should the Conservatives take North Cornwall ?
    2009 UA elections in the North Cornwall divisions LD 10 seats Con 8 seats Ind 3 seata
    2013 UA elections in the North Cornwall divisions LD 15 seats Con 2 seats Ind 4 seats
    Since then LDs have gained 1 seat from Ind in a by election .



    Not disputing it is close (maybe you are!) and sincerely hope you are correct. But the Ashcroft poll is fairly clear that remaining UKIP voters are still willing to consider the Tories and are there to be squeezed. I'm not predicting anything there with certainty, will be mightily close I suspect.

    Wasn't there genera SW polling last week that was pro-blue as well?
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 357
    From here in Norwich, my view is that Chloe will hold on without a recount. You'd hardly know there was an election in Norwich N.

    By contrast Norwich South is awash with posters and Greens think they can win. Initially I expected a comfortable Labour win by 5k but this is now looking much closer.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Survation Lab 34 plus 5. Con 33 no change.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Andy_Cooke said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I would, once again, counsel caution in taking the different swings in the Ashcroft polling too literally. There's likely to be a fair amount of statistical noise in the figures for any given seat, so concluding that (say) Pudsey is a Con Hold but Peterborough is a Lab gain is really not statistically sound. Better to conclude simply that both look too close to call.

    Battersea, on the other hand...

    Completely agree.
    I've got my own model using the Ashcroft polls (I adjust older ones by using the average swing since they were taken. Flawed, but it's the best we've got). Any that are less than +/-5 I put down as 50:50. Any between 5-9 are 75:25 in favour of the leader. Any that are 10+ I assign to the leader.

    It's crude, but I think any more precision would be artificial.
    I do something similar.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    Andy_Cooke said:

    Just posting my "reference position for polls" from the last thread. These are the average result from each polling company since the dissolution of Parliament (with one exception - for YouGov, it's the average since the methodology change). I noticed that all movement since then, when each company was taken in isolation, is completely compatible with no change during the campaign. If any pollster veers away from their baseline, that would be significant.:

    Phone Polls:
    ICM: Con 36; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 10
    Ipsos-MORI: Con 34; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 10
    Lord Ashcroft: Con 34; Lab 31; LD 9; UKIP 12
    ComRes: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 9; UKIP 11
    (Average across phone poll averages:
    Con 35, Lab 32, LD 9, UKIP 11)

    Internet Polls:
    YouGov: Con 34; Lab 35; LD 8; UKIP 13
    Populus: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 9; UKIP 15
    Opinium: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 13
    Survation: Con 32; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 17
    Panelbase: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 17
    TNS: Con 33; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 16
    (Average across Internet poll averages:
    Con 33; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 15)

    Interestingly, this is a trend we've seen across Europe.

    In France, the internet pollsters were more generous towards the FN.
    In Finland, towards The Finns.
    In Spain, towards Podemos.
    In the Netherlands, towards the PVV.

    Looking through the results in each of these countries, we saw that insurgent (or anti-establishment, take your pick) came in at the top of the phone poll range, and at the bottom of the internet one. This would suggest UKIP 11-13% in the UK, which happens to be my prediction too.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Survation Lab 34 plus 5. Con 33 no change.

    That's certainly a change.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Tissue_Price said:

    MarkSenior said:

    DevonExile said:

    Stunned by Peterborough, which I had down as a pretty safe Conservative hold.

    Seems to me that UKIP, being squeezed in many places, are staying strong there and may cost the Tories the seat. More UKIP voters rule out Cons than any other of the English seats polled today. If the squeeze doesn't happen, an unlikely Labour gain.

    Also think Tories will take North Cornwall (sadly). 51% of UKIP voters there ready to consider Tories, and the SW Tories seem to be (with some limited evidence) very optimistic.

    Why should the Conservatives take North Cornwall ?
    2009 UA elections in the North Cornwall divisions LD 10 seats Con 8 seats Ind 3 seata
    2013 UA elections in the North Cornwall divisions LD 15 seats Con 2 seats Ind 4 seats
    Since then LDs have gained 1 seat from Ind in a by election .


    Because you won it by 6.4% when you were polling 23% and now you're polling 9%? It's impressive that it's close, I'll give you that.
    We won it by 6.4% when the Conservatives held 8 of the UA divisions to LD 10 . The Conservatives are so locally unpopular that they now only hold 2 .
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Survation Lab 34 plus 5. Con 33 no change.

    Brand Bounce !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    BRS could honestly go any way. Aside from the wonderful value 66-1 Nabavi is on, it's a real mud pit right now for the punter.

    Stay out is my best advice.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    MarkSenior said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar Tissue No Dair is right, Berwickshire will be a Tory gain as the last Ashcroft poll said, 3rd place Liberals are more likely to vote tactically for the Tories v SNP there, 3rd place Labour more likely to vote tactically for SNP v Tories in Dumfriesshire. Tory John Lamont is already the MSP for the Berwickshire constituency, winning the seat even in the SNP landslide of 2011

    What a load of drivel . The LDems are in 1st place not 3rd that is why they are defending the seat . No more than a handful of local voters will be even aware of Lord Ashcroft and his poll but are aware that Michael Moore is the MP .
    Normally I'd think that would be more significant, but these are strange times. Even the blind, deaf and dumb cannot have missed the general perceptions of how the LDs will do north of the border. Indeed, the failure to break above 10% nationally has really hurt them I think as in areas where with a little national recovery people might be inclined to vote LD, they might think it futile, even when coming from first place. No guarantee of that, you could be proven right, but I don't think it can be entirely dismissed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    @JBeattieMirror: @DailyMirror @Survation poll Lab 34% (+5 on last week), Cons 33% (NC), UKIP 16% (-2), Lib Dems 9% (-1), SNP 4% (NC) Greens 3% (-1) #GE2015
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Survation Lab 34 plus 5. Con 33 no change.

    That's certainly a change.
    the other one was just an outlier on the labour low side..
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    HYUFD said:

    TP Liberals in the Scottish Borders are certainly not red liberals, but basically one nation Tories, who are highly educated and loathe the SNP. The Tories already hold the seat in the Scottish Parliament and they can read the polls, they will back Lamont

    Look at the Ashcroft polling for DCT. Where do you think all those Liberal voters went?

    It doesn't matter the party. Every single non-Tory option in Scotland is made up of "party supporters" and "anti-Tories". The Anti-Tories exist in the Borders and they're the ones switching to the SNP in DCT. Now the Liberals appear to be third in BRS there is a significant chance of the SNP squeezing them more than the Tories do.

    By no means is it guaranteed, we can't establish the exact share of "genuine Liberals" and "anti-Tories". But it is up in the air. Putting money on the Tories in BRS is a far longer shot than the odds being offered.
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