politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2010 LDs are splitting much more to LAB in the CON-held mar
Comments
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Any polls with Lab just behind or ahead is good.Casino_Royale said:
Why can't Labour just stay lying down?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm taking this to mean a better poll for Lab
https://twitter.com/JBeattieMirror/status/594120179283558400
We don't want any nasty surprises like a rebounding Labour lead this late in the game. Grrr.
Ensures the Tory to Kip waverers come back.
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Trouble with reallocating DKs according to GE2010 will underestimate UKIP and Greens. It will overestimate massively LDs.0
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Strap yourself in
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 35s35 seconds ago
A lot of polls coming out in next hour or so0 -
NO! Day 2 of a proof. I am gutted. Talked my clients into offering settlement yesterday and the other side said no. I just don't understand these people.TheScreamingEagles said:
Stay up till 10.15, we should have the exit polls by then.Blue_rog said:Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.
I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
Head off to bed and wake up around 2 am when the decent results start coming in.
I assume all PBers have taken off next Friday off from work?0 -
People misread Ed's "No Deals" with SNP line. There'll be a deal - Labour's Queen speech.Pong said:
I still see EdM as a 4/6 shot.Pulpstar said:
Those prices look about right to me now. (PM)MikeL said:Next PM heading back towards another crossover?
Cameron 2.14
Miliband 1.88
Con Most seats continuing to tighten - now 1.24.
Tories most seats is ludicrous at 1.24 though.
IMO, the only thing that's changed is that tory cash has re-entered the market - blue punters fired up by seeing dave on tv last night.
I might be wrong though
Cue ashcroft polls showing the tories ahead in Doncaster N....
I *think* I'm clovered up well enough on the markets at this point though to not really care tbh though.0 -
Anecdote alert:
There's no doubt on the doorsteps there has been a softening of the labour vote in South West London where I have been all over.
Tories picking up perhaps 3% of Lib vote and Labour picking up maybe 5% Lib.
The real eye opener is that about 3% are moving from Con to Lab but 3% moving the other way.
And of definite Labour voters they don't like Ed and I get the feeling some may not vote.
Add in individual voter registration and I believe that Labour will not increase their vote from 2010 in South West London. (Add 5% Lib, lose 2% IVR, lose 3% soft)
As Tories may lose 5% at most to UKIP, their vote maybe down 2%. (add Lib 3% and take away UKIP 5%)
So I am forecasting 1% swing to reds.
Of course, I've been wrong in the past.
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DavidL said:
NO! Day 2 of a proof. I am gutted. Talked my clients into offering settlement yesterday and the other side said no. I just don't understand these people.TheScreamingEagles said:
Stay up till 10.15, we should have the exit polls by then.Blue_rog said:Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.
I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
Head off to bed and wake up around 2 am when the decent results start coming in.
I assume all PBers have taken off next Friday off from work?0 -
@TheScreamingEagles
Heroes can't lie down
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMpl7eDEeYg&=&feature=youtu.be0 -
Which constituency ?Dixie said:Anecdote alert:
There's no doubt on the doorsteps there has been a softening of the labour vote in South West London where I have been all over.
Tories picking up perhaps 3% of Lib vote and Labour picking up maybe 5% Lib.
The real eye opener is that about 3% are moving from Con to Lab but 3% moving the other way.
And of definite Labour voters they don't like Ed and I get the feeling some may not vote.
Add in individual voter registration and I believe that Labour will not increase their vote from 2010 in South West London. (Add 5% Lib, lose 2% IVR, lose 3% soft)
As Tories may lose 5% at most to UKIP, their vote maybe down 2%. (add Lib 3% and take away UKIP 5%)
So I am forecasting 1% swing to reds.
Of course, I've been wrong in the past.
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I reckon Mrs BJ will be well pissed off with me by Friday teatime when i ruin the Devon farm holiday by wanting to go to bed (to sleep) at 5pmTheScreamingEagles said:
Stay up till 10.15, we should have the exit polls by then.Blue_rog said:Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.
I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
Head off to bed and wake up around 2 am when the decent results start coming in.
I assume all PBers have taken off next Friday off from work?0 -
Great. I am just in a Friday afternoon kind of mood. :-)Casino_Royale said:
Argh, bloody iPhone! He ain't half done a bad job, our Michael.DavidL said:
I may be wrong about this but I think "stirling" was one of the pretend currencies that the SNP were going to keep at the time of the referendum. Sterling was the one we knew they really couldn't continue to use and might have been a more creditable description of Lord A's work.Casino_Royale said:
Terrific and stirling work by Lord A, but I can't deny I will be relieved it's over!SimonStClare said:Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 7 mins7 minutes ago
After a year and nearly a quarter of a million interviews, my final round of constituency polling will be on @ConHome at 4pm.
How's that?0 -
Mr. Dixie, I hope you're right on individual voter registration but the Times story mentioned on this thread make me worry the system might still be wide open to fraud.0
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https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.116758783surbiton said:
Harman.Pulpstar said:Who would become PM if Ed Miliband was hit by a bus shortly after May 7th, and Labour had "won" ?
Damn, not on this list.
Was hoping she'd be 1000.00 -
Good point that!TheScreamingEagles said:
Any polls with Lab just behind or ahead is good.Casino_Royale said:
Why can't Labour just stay lying down?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm taking this to mean a better poll for Lab
https://twitter.com/JBeattieMirror/status/594120179283558400
We don't want any nasty surprises like a rebounding Labour lead this late in the game. Grrr.
Ensures the Tory to Kip waverers come back.
My prediction is Tories 300 seats and us Kippers 5, that would suit me betting wise and a continuation coalition is best for the country.0 -
Nae botha, pal!DavidL said:
Great. I am just in a Friday afternoon kind of mood. :-)Casino_Royale said:
Argh, bloody iPhone! He ain't half done a bad job, our Michael.DavidL said:
I may be wrong about this but I think "stirling" was one of the pretend currencies that the SNP were going to keep at the time of the referendum. Sterling was the one we knew they really couldn't continue to use and might have been a more creditable description of Lord A's work.Casino_Royale said:
Terrific and stirling work by Lord A, but I can't deny I will be relieved it's over!SimonStClare said:Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 7 mins7 minutes ago
After a year and nearly a quarter of a million interviews, my final round of constituency polling will be on @ConHome at 4pm.
How's that?0 -
5 minutes before he met the Queen - HarmanPulpstar said:Who would become PM if Ed Miliband was hit by a bus shortly after May 7th, and Labour had "won" ?
5 minutes after - a member of the Cabinet selected in consultation with the NEC
Alternatively, the bus driver. Arff!!0 -
Yes. I will be shitting bricks all night long.TheScreamingEagles said:
Stay up till 10.15, we should have the exit polls by then.Blue_rog said:Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.
I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
Head off to bed and wake up around 2 am when the decent results start coming in.
I assume all PBers have taken off next Friday off from work?0 -
It would be funny if Labour were inept enough to offer the SNP concessions purely for the Queens Speech. I wonder if Labour are truly that dumb? It's possible.Pulpstar said:
People misread Ed's "No Deals" with SNP line. There'll be a deal - Labour's Queen speech.Pong said:
I still see EdM as a 4/6 shot.Pulpstar said:
Those prices look about right to me now. (PM)MikeL said:Next PM heading back towards another crossover?
Cameron 2.14
Miliband 1.88
Con Most seats continuing to tighten - now 1.24.
Tories most seats is ludicrous at 1.24 though.
IMO, the only thing that's changed is that tory cash has re-entered the market - blue punters fired up by seeing dave on tv last night.
I might be wrong though
Cue ashcroft polls showing the tories ahead in Doncaster N....
I *think* I'm clovered up well enough on the markets at this point though to not really care tbh though.0 -
The rule is, as always, keep awake until you nod off @ 4/5 am unless there is a victory celebration on the South Bank.Blue_rog said:Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.
I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
Then catch a quick nap.
Get up again at about 12:00 since morning counts will begin to come in and coalition talks or worse, "who has won ?" will fill the air.
Sleep early on Friday evening and wake up whenever. Saturday, Sunday.............0 -
For that to be the result Tories would need to lose only 1 more seat to LAB more than they gain from LD.nigel4england said:
Good point that!TheScreamingEagles said:
Any polls with Lab just behind or ahead is good.Casino_Royale said:
Why can't Labour just stay lying down?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm taking this to mean a better poll for Lab
https://twitter.com/JBeattieMirror/status/594120179283558400
We don't want any nasty surprises like a rebounding Labour lead this late in the game. Grrr.
Ensures the Tory to Kip waverers come back.
My prediction is Tories 300 seats and us Kippers 5, that would suit me betting wise and a continuation coalition is best for the country.
Would be some fantastic betting opportunities on that result0 -
Tories back ahead in Croydon Central 44-40%
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft0 -
DCT is now firm SNP.
But Murphy is getting some tactical Tories in East Ren.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CD7cbiTUMAAvJxp.jpg:large0 -
Tories just ahead in Pudsey 41-40%
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft0 -
It is With much regret I have to admit to booking Friday as leave. My life is tragic.TheScreamingEagles said:Blue_rog said:Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.
I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
I assume all PBers have taken off next Friday off from work?0 -
Labour still narrowly ahead in Wirral West 46-43%
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft0 -
Generally looks pretty good for the Tories, but Scotland looks a wipe out. David Mundell is toast.0
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Mr. Saddened, not so tragic to be interested in the future of one's country.0
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"Labour were leading by two points in Peterborough, where Stewart Jackson is defending a majority of 4,861"
Must be all the immigrants.0 -
Councils are verifying every application - either by checking NI number or another confirmatory source.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dixie, I hope you're right on individual voter registration but the Times story mentioned on this thread make me worry the system might still be wide open to fraud.
I think IVR should have helped quite a bit - but it may vary from Council to Council how thorough they are.0 -
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Labour just ahead in Norwich N 39-37%
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft0 -
Peterborough a surprise. And I would be very surprised if Stewart Jackson did lose that.
Ashcroft implies the Tories would do relatively worse than 1997 or 2001.0 -
I want a 4% swing to Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm taking this to mean a better poll for Lab
https://twitter.com/JBeattieMirror/status/5941201792835584000 -
Norwich North, tipped by me for months as Lab gain is Lab by 2 points - toss up!0
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Tories comfortably ahead in Battersea 50-38%
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft0 -
Labour ahead in Peterborough though 34-32%
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft0 -
DCT is a shocker, Mundell losing 11% of his vote with the Tories holding at 17 nationally is shocking!0
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An awful lot of too close to calls there....0
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I don't like to brag, which is one of many many fine qualities but since I've started canvassing in Pudsey it is has gone from Lab gain to Con Hold.
CCHQ wishes they could clone me.0 -
The nonpartisan May2015 have homed in on the key finding:
May2015 Election @May2015NS
Our sums hv assumed Tories wld hold Dumfriesshire up to this point. If SNP now 11 ahead, that's in effect a Lab gain.0 -
UKIP vote-splitting?Casino_Royale said:Peterborough a surprise. And I would be very surprised if Stewart Jackson did lose that.
Ashcroft implies the Tories would do relatively worse than 1997 or 2001.0 -
Surely he can't get enough.Dair said:DCT is now firm SNP.
But Murphy is getting some tactical Tories in East Ren.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CD7cbiTUMAAvJxp.jpg:large
If you know any E Renfrewshire voter, I'll gladly vote swap to ANY party here in NE Derbyshire to see the back of him !0 -
It wouldn't surprise me if a "No deal" deal has already been done.Dair said:
It would be funny if Labour were inept enough to offer the SNP concessions purely for the Queens Speech. I wonder if Labour are truly that dumb? It's possible.Pulpstar said:
People misread Ed's "No Deals" with SNP line. There'll be a deal - Labour's Queen speech.Pong said:
I still see EdM as a 4/6 shot.Pulpstar said:
Those prices look about right to me now. (PM)MikeL said:Next PM heading back towards another crossover?
Cameron 2.14
Miliband 1.88
Con Most seats continuing to tighten - now 1.24.
Tories most seats is ludicrous at 1.24 though.
IMO, the only thing that's changed is that tory cash has re-entered the market - blue punters fired up by seeing dave on tv last night.
I might be wrong though
Cue ashcroft polls showing the tories ahead in Doncaster N....
I *think* I'm clovered up well enough on the markets at this point though to not really care tbh though.
But if I am correct, didn't Sturgeon say somewhere that the SNP will vote for the Labour QS ?0 -
Peterborough is major surprise LAB were 3.2 yesterday not even in my thoughts TBH0
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LDs ahead in N Cornwall just by 38-36% on seat poll though Tories ahead on standard voting intention
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft0 -
DCT and D&G must be expected to be SNP now. BRS there's only 9% Labour on previous Ashcroft to move but that could be another couple of points to the SNP. Depends what the Liberals are doing. If they remain solid or break SNP then the Borders are all SNP. If they break Tories, they could still have a seat in Scotland.0
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E Renfrewshire too close to call, SNP lead 39-36% but 20% of Tory votes for Murphy to squeeze
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft0 -
Not going to cheerlead Labour as I hate the party leadership and direction intensely but Jess is going to send Chloe packing which makes me rather happy0
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That's what happens when you poll marginalsSlackbladder said:An awful lot of too close to calls there....
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Casino Remember Ashcroft had the Tories gaining Roxburgh and Berwickshire to make up for any loss in Dumfrieshire, so they would actually retain their 1 Scottish seat0
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Peterborough is major surprise LAB were 3.2 yesterday not even in my thoughts TBH
On the other hand Croydon Central, tipped up as labour gain, looks like staying blue. And the tories streets ahead in Battersea!
I'd treat all of these with a big pinch of salt.0 -
Pudsey LAB were 2.14 yesterdayTheScreamingEagles said:I don't like to brag, which is one of many many fine qualities but I've started canvassing in Pudsey it is has gone from Lab gain to Con Hold.
CCHQ wishes they could clone me.0 -
Yes I had thought Stewart Jackson's robust approach would go down well with Kippers - not a lot of squeeze in evidence there...bigjohnowls said:Peterborough is major surprise LAB were 3.2 yesterday not even in my thoughts TBH
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Labour doing badly in London?
Pass me the smelling salts...0 -
Lord A polls trending to my ARSE
And no named candidates .... again. A missed opportunity.0 -
Ruth Davidson MSP @RuthDavidsonMSP 20m20 minutes ago
Not much of a gambler, but bunked off the street stall for 5 mins to place a tenner on @John2Win at the bookies... pic.twitter.com/GoCdNTfUMY
lexmassie @alexmassie 13m13 minutes ago
@RuthDavidsonMSP What odds did you get? @John2Win
Ruth Davidson MSP @RuthDavidsonMSP 13m13 minutes ago
@alexmassie @John2Win 11/8.
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Indeed. Lovely as it would be if Peterborough's Stewart Jackson suddenly had time on his hands to start posting on here again.taffys said:Peterborough is major surprise LAB were 3.2 yesterday not even in my thoughts TBH
I'd treat all of these with a big pinch of salt.0 -
I'm surprised about Croydon Central and Peterborough, but the rest look about right.
I think Jim Murphy could scrape through in the end in a named poll.0 -
It was the shoes what did it?TheScreamingEagles said:I don't like to brag, which is one of many many fine qualities but since I've started canvassing in Pudsey it is has gone from Lab gain to Con Hold.
CCHQ wishes they could clone me.0 -
At what point is "Vote Nige, and get two for the price of one - Miliband and Sturgeon" going to sink in?0
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Are Scottish Conservatives totally mad?
Voting Lab substantially increasing the chances of Miliband becoming PM.0 -
Looks like Murphy may squeeze home.0
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Who is John ?TGOHF said:Ruth Davidson MSP @RuthDavidsonMSP 20m20 minutes ago
Not much of a gambler, but bunked off the street stall for 5 mins to place a tenner on @John2Win at the bookies... pic.twitter.com/GoCdNTfUMY
lexmassie @alexmassie 13m13 minutes ago
@RuthDavidsonMSP What odds did you get? @John2Win
Ruth Davidson MSP @RuthDavidsonMSP 13m13 minutes ago
@alexmassie @John2Win 11/8.0 -
What makes you think they are nonpartisan?Tissue_Price said:The nonpartisan May2015
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Ashcroft - average swing 3.3% Con to Lab in the 7 Con/Lab English marginals.
I think Con would have hoped for a bit better.0 -
They claim to be. I may have had my tongue in my cheek when using the epithet.Scott_P said:
What makes you think they are nonpartisan?Tissue_Price said:The nonpartisan May2015
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***SMUG MODE ACTIVATED***Dair said:DCT is now firm SNP.
But Murphy is getting some tactical Tories in East Ren.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CD7cbiTUMAAvJxp.jpg:large
I would just like to point out that DCT is exactly how I said it would go, once people realised Mundell was actually in trouble the anti-Tory vote would flock in to the SNP candidate
£10 at 2/1 well invested.0 -
Dave will not remain prime minister based on these ashcrofts.
EICIPM @ 1.86 on Betfair.0 -
London consistently shows the lowest 'certainty to vote'.....with Scotland (by a wide margin) at the other end of the spectrum.RodCrosby said:Labour doing badly in London?
Pass me the smelling salts...
Funny, when you consider 48% of Labour members are Londoners.....0 -
There's a good chance I will be partaking of alcoholic refreshments, the amount will dependant upon the outcome of the exit poll.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Saddened, not so tragic to be interested in the future of one's country.
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Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB·4 mins4 minutes ago
@LordAshcroft marginals polling:
Wirral W is LAB target number 40 from CON,
Poll has LAB gain
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB·6 mins6 minutes ago
@LordAshcroft marginals polling:
Norwich N is LAB target from CON number 52 & polling makes it LAB gain
Or
Pudsey is Lab target from Con number 22 and polling has CON hold0 -
John Lamont, Tory candidate Berwichshire Roxburghshire & Selkirksurbiton said:
Who is John ?TGOHF said:Ruth Davidson MSP @RuthDavidsonMSP 20m20 minutes ago
Not much of a gambler, but bunked off the street stall for 5 mins to place a tenner on @John2Win at the bookies... pic.twitter.com/GoCdNTfUMY
lexmassie @alexmassie 13m13 minutes ago
@RuthDavidsonMSP What odds did you get? @John2Win
Ruth Davidson MSP @RuthDavidsonMSP 13m13 minutes ago
@alexmassie @John2Win 11/8.
I'm on at better odds than what Ruth got.
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No.MikeL said:Are Scottish Conservatives totally mad?
Voting Lab substantially increasing the chances of Miliband becoming PM.
What evidence is there that they are?0 -
I have difficulty believing Croydon Central.
Murphy was always going to win. Even Fitalass , Carlotta are part of his fan club.0 -
38-2 Ballance gone.0
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I suspect the man-bag......in the owner-occupier areas, at least....SimonStClare said:
It was the shoes what did it?TheScreamingEagles said:I don't like to brag, which is one of many many fine qualities but since I've started canvassing in Pudsey it is has gone from Lab gain to Con Hold.
CCHQ wishes they could clone me.
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A couple of things about East Renfrewshire.Pulpstar said:
Surely he can't get enough.Dair said:DCT is now firm SNP.
But Murphy is getting some tactical Tories in East Ren.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CD7cbiTUMAAvJxp.jpg:large
If you know any E Renfrewshire voter, I'll gladly vote swap to ANY party here in NE Derbyshire to see the back of him !
Most Postal Votes have been cast. That means the ability of Murphy to squeeze Tories (assuming older and much more likely to Postal) is reducing.
GOTV has to favour the SNP pretty markedly although, it is likely that East Ren is not a very well canvassed seat for the SNP (prior to this year) so it might not give them much if anything.
There's nothing else to squeeze. A few hundred Liberals and Others left.
Basically Murphy needs about 25% of the remaining Tory vote to switch. I wonder if he is already at the limit of switching. Tory vote is already 33% lower than it was in 2010 and there's no reason for the Tory vote to be reduced other than tactical Murphy votes. That is a hell of a lot and he's still behind.0 -
Con share down 10 points vs flat in national Scottish polls.CarlottaVance said:
No.MikeL said:Are Scottish Conservatives totally mad?
Voting Lab substantially increasing the chances of Miliband becoming PM.
What evidence is there that they are?0 -
Labour seem to be doing well in East Anglia. I wondered about that in January:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.hu/2015/01/reality-check-testing-betting-markets.html0 -
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 7m7 minutes ago
Re-final Ashcroft poll. Any Labour candidate not ahead by 7%-8% at this stage should be very, very worried.
Dan finger on the Pulse Hodges0 -
I think Con would have hoped for a bit better.
Yep, disappointing for Con, is my take.0 -
I don't want to be denied my "Jim Murphy moment !"Dair said:
A couple of things about East Renfrewshire.Pulpstar said:
Surely he can't get enough.Dair said:DCT is now firm SNP.
But Murphy is getting some tactical Tories in East Ren.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CD7cbiTUMAAvJxp.jpg:large
If you know any E Renfrewshire voter, I'll gladly vote swap to ANY party here in NE Derbyshire to see the back of him !
Most Postal Votes have been cast. That means the ability of Murphy to squeeze Tories (assuming older and much more likely to Postal) is reducing.
GOTV has to favour the SNP pretty markedly although, it is likely that East Ren is not a very well canvassed seat for the SNP (prior to this year) so it might not give them much if anything.
There's nothing else to squeeze. A few hundred Liberals and Others left.
Basically Murphy needs about 25% of the remaining Tory vote to switch. I wonder if he is already at the limit of switching. Tory vote is already 33% lower than it was in 2010 and there's no reason for the Tory vote to be reduced other than tactical Murphy votes. That is a hell of a lot and he's still behind.0 -
No, all she's said is the SNP will vote against a Tory QS.surbiton said:
It wouldn't surprise me if a "No deal" deal has already been done.Dair said:
It would be funny if Labour were inept enough to offer the SNP concessions purely for the Queens Speech. I wonder if Labour are truly that dumb? It's possible.Pulpstar said:
People misread Ed's "No Deals" with SNP line. There'll be a deal - Labour's Queen speech.Pong said:
I still see EdM as a 4/6 shot.Pulpstar said:
Those prices look about right to me now. (PM)MikeL said:Next PM heading back towards another crossover?
Cameron 2.14
Miliband 1.88
Con Most seats continuing to tighten - now 1.24.
Tories most seats is ludicrous at 1.24 though.
IMO, the only thing that's changed is that tory cash has re-entered the market - blue punters fired up by seeing dave on tv last night.
I might be wrong though
Cue ashcroft polls showing the tories ahead in Doncaster N....
I *think* I'm clovered up well enough on the markets at this point though to not really care tbh though.
But if I am correct, didn't Sturgeon say somewhere that the SNP will vote for the Labour QS ?
Basically there is no way the SNP will not vote for a Labour QS but Labour don't know this yet. If they offer initial concessions when they don't need to we know that a torrid time for Labour will be utterly, remorselessly miserable as they don't have the game to get anything from the SNP.
The SNP will always put Labour into power because it's once Labour are in office the SNP can use FTPA to really press their thumbs into Labour's windpipe.0 -
@politicsmarkets: Ladbrokes cut Conservatives from 7/1 to 11/2 to form a majority government, Cameron cut to 6/5 (from 11/8) to be next PM.0
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I suspect DCT effect will hit BRS, no-one expected SNP to be so close so it will attract further support.HYUFD said:Casino Remember Ashcroft had the Tories gaining Roxburgh and Berwickshire to make up for any loss in Dumfrieshire, so they would actually retain their 1 Scottish seat
However I am on the Cons at 6/4 so, whatever.0 -
Con majority is an awful price.Scott_P said:@politicsmarkets: Ladbrokes cut Conservatives from 7/1 to 11/2 to form a majority government, Cameron cut to 6/5 (from 11/8) to be next PM.
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There is another reason. In the first election after the "defection" of large numbers of traditional Labour voters to the SNP, the SNP cannot be seen not to be installing a Labour government. In fact, that has been their "successful" campaign. Vote SNP, get Labour. At least, in places like Glasgow.Dair said:
No, all she's said is the SNP will vote against a Tory QS.surbiton said:
It wouldn't surprise me if a "No deal" deal has already been done.Dair said:
It would be funny if Labour were inept enough to offer the SNP concessions purely for the Queens Speech. I wonder if Labour are truly that dumb? It's possible.Pulpstar said:
People misread Ed's "No Deals" with SNP line. There'll be a deal - Labour's Queen speech.Pong said:
I still see EdM as a 4/6 shot.Pulpstar said:
Those prices look about right to me now. (PM)MikeL said:Next PM heading back towards another crossover?
Cameron 2.14
Miliband 1.88
Con Most seats continuing to tighten - now 1.24.
Tories most seats is ludicrous at 1.24 though.
IMO, the only thing that's changed is that tory cash has re-entered the market - blue punters fired up by seeing dave on tv last night.
I might be wrong though
Cue ashcroft polls showing the tories ahead in Doncaster N....
I *think* I'm clovered up well enough on the markets at this point though to not really care tbh though.
But if I am correct, didn't Sturgeon say somewhere that the SNP will vote for the Labour QS ?
Basically there is no way the SNP will not vote for a Labour QS but Labour don't know this yet. If they offer initial concessions when they don't need to we know that a torrid time for Labour will be utterly, remorselessly miserable as they don't have the game to get anything from the SNP.
The SNP will always put Labour into power because it's once Labour are in office the SNP can use FTPA to really press their thumbs into Labour's windpipe.0 -
There are only a handful of seats a good Labour performance would win them. Ipswich, Waveney, Cambridge...antifrank said:Labour seem to be doing well in East Anglia. I wondered about that in January:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.hu/2015/01/reality-check-testing-betting-markets.html0 -
About 40 Labour gains from Con?0
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The one Labour bod who may well survive based off Murphy is Edi South.0
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38-3. I’m stopping watching for while. Although it could be preparing me, as a LD sympathizse, for Friday morning!0
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New thread.0
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#BellEnd Sigh.0
