Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.
I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
Stay up till 10.15, we should have the exit polls by then.
Head off to bed and wake up around 2 am when the decent results start coming in.
I assume all PBers have taken off next Friday off from work?
NO! Day 2 of a proof. I am gutted. Talked my clients into offering settlement yesterday and the other side said no. I just don't understand these people.
There's no doubt on the doorsteps there has been a softening of the labour vote in South West London where I have been all over.
Tories picking up perhaps 3% of Lib vote and Labour picking up maybe 5% Lib.
The real eye opener is that about 3% are moving from Con to Lab but 3% moving the other way.
And of definite Labour voters they don't like Ed and I get the feeling some may not vote.
Add in individual voter registration and I believe that Labour will not increase their vote from 2010 in South West London. (Add 5% Lib, lose 2% IVR, lose 3% soft)
As Tories may lose 5% at most to UKIP, their vote maybe down 2%. (add Lib 3% and take away UKIP 5%)
Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.
I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
Stay up till 10.15, we should have the exit polls by then.
Head off to bed and wake up around 2 am when the decent results start coming in.
I assume all PBers have taken off next Friday off from work?
NO! Day 2 of a proof. I am gutted. Talked my clients into offering settlement yesterday and the other side said no. I just don't understand these people.
There's no doubt on the doorsteps there has been a softening of the labour vote in South West London where I have been all over.
Tories picking up perhaps 3% of Lib vote and Labour picking up maybe 5% Lib.
The real eye opener is that about 3% are moving from Con to Lab but 3% moving the other way.
And of definite Labour voters they don't like Ed and I get the feeling some may not vote.
Add in individual voter registration and I believe that Labour will not increase their vote from 2010 in South West London. (Add 5% Lib, lose 2% IVR, lose 3% soft)
As Tories may lose 5% at most to UKIP, their vote maybe down 2%. (add Lib 3% and take away UKIP 5%)
Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.
I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
Stay up till 10.15, we should have the exit polls by then.
Head off to bed and wake up around 2 am when the decent results start coming in.
I assume all PBers have taken off next Friday off from work?
I reckon Mrs BJ will be well pissed off with me by Friday teatime when i ruin the Devon farm holiday by wanting to go to bed (to sleep) at 5pm
After a year and nearly a quarter of a million interviews, my final round of constituency polling will be on @ConHome at 4pm.
Terrific and stirling work by Lord A, but I can't deny I will be relieved it's over!
I may be wrong about this but I think "stirling" was one of the pretend currencies that the SNP were going to keep at the time of the referendum. Sterling was the one we knew they really couldn't continue to use and might have been a more creditable description of Lord A's work.
Argh, bloody iPhone! He ain't half done a bad job, our Michael.
How's that?
Great. I am just in a Friday afternoon kind of mood. :-)
Mr. Dixie, I hope you're right on individual voter registration but the Times story mentioned on this thread make me worry the system might still be wide open to fraud.
After a year and nearly a quarter of a million interviews, my final round of constituency polling will be on @ConHome at 4pm.
Terrific and stirling work by Lord A, but I can't deny I will be relieved it's over!
I may be wrong about this but I think "stirling" was one of the pretend currencies that the SNP were going to keep at the time of the referendum. Sterling was the one we knew they really couldn't continue to use and might have been a more creditable description of Lord A's work.
Argh, bloody iPhone! He ain't half done a bad job, our Michael.
How's that?
Great. I am just in a Friday afternoon kind of mood. :-)
Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.
I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
Stay up till 10.15, we should have the exit polls by then.
Head off to bed and wake up around 2 am when the decent results start coming in.
I assume all PBers have taken off next Friday off from work?
IMO, the only thing that's changed is that tory cash has re-entered the market - blue punters fired up by seeing dave on tv last night.
I might be wrong though
Cue ashcroft polls showing the tories ahead in Doncaster N....
People misread Ed's "No Deals" with SNP line. There'll be a deal - Labour's Queen speech.
I *think* I'm clovered up well enough on the markets at this point though to not really care tbh though.
It would be funny if Labour were inept enough to offer the SNP concessions purely for the Queens Speech. I wonder if Labour are truly that dumb? It's possible.
Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.
I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
The rule is, as always, keep awake until you nod off @ 4/5 am unless there is a victory celebration on the South Bank.
Then catch a quick nap.
Get up again at about 12:00 since morning counts will begin to come in and coalition talks or worse, "who has won ?" will fill the air.
Sleep early on Friday evening and wake up whenever. Saturday, Sunday.............
Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.
I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
I assume all PBers have taken off next Friday off from work?
It is With much regret I have to admit to booking Friday as leave. My life is tragic.
Mr. Dixie, I hope you're right on individual voter registration but the Times story mentioned on this thread make me worry the system might still be wide open to fraud.
Councils are verifying every application - either by checking NI number or another confirmatory source.
I think IVR should have helped quite a bit - but it may vary from Council to Council how thorough they are.
IMO, the only thing that's changed is that tory cash has re-entered the market - blue punters fired up by seeing dave on tv last night.
I might be wrong though
Cue ashcroft polls showing the tories ahead in Doncaster N....
People misread Ed's "No Deals" with SNP line. There'll be a deal - Labour's Queen speech.
I *think* I'm clovered up well enough on the markets at this point though to not really care tbh though.
It would be funny if Labour were inept enough to offer the SNP concessions purely for the Queens Speech. I wonder if Labour are truly that dumb? It's possible.
It wouldn't surprise me if a "No deal" deal has already been done.
But if I am correct, didn't Sturgeon say somewhere that the SNP will vote for the Labour QS ?
DCT and D&G must be expected to be SNP now. BRS there's only 9% Labour on previous Ashcroft to move but that could be another couple of points to the SNP. Depends what the Liberals are doing. If they remain solid or break SNP then the Borders are all SNP. If they break Tories, they could still have a seat in Scotland.
Not going to cheerlead Labour as I hate the party leadership and direction intensely but Jess is going to send Chloe packing which makes me rather happy
Casino Remember Ashcroft had the Tories gaining Roxburgh and Berwickshire to make up for any loss in Dumfrieshire, so they would actually retain their 1 Scottish seat
Ruth Davidson MSP @RuthDavidsonMSP 20m20 minutes ago Not much of a gambler, but bunked off the street stall for 5 mins to place a tenner on @John2Win at the bookies... pic.twitter.com/GoCdNTfUMY
Ruth Davidson MSP @RuthDavidsonMSP 20m20 minutes ago Not much of a gambler, but bunked off the street stall for 5 mins to place a tenner on @John2Win at the bookies... pic.twitter.com/GoCdNTfUMY
I would just like to point out that DCT is exactly how I said it would go, once people realised Mundell was actually in trouble the anti-Tory vote would flock in to the SNP candidate
Ruth Davidson MSP @RuthDavidsonMSP 20m20 minutes ago Not much of a gambler, but bunked off the street stall for 5 mins to place a tenner on @John2Win at the bookies... pic.twitter.com/GoCdNTfUMY
If you know any E Renfrewshire voter, I'll gladly vote swap to ANY party here in NE Derbyshire to see the back of him !
A couple of things about East Renfrewshire.
Most Postal Votes have been cast. That means the ability of Murphy to squeeze Tories (assuming older and much more likely to Postal) is reducing.
GOTV has to favour the SNP pretty markedly although, it is likely that East Ren is not a very well canvassed seat for the SNP (prior to this year) so it might not give them much if anything.
There's nothing else to squeeze. A few hundred Liberals and Others left.
Basically Murphy needs about 25% of the remaining Tory vote to switch. I wonder if he is already at the limit of switching. Tory vote is already 33% lower than it was in 2010 and there's no reason for the Tory vote to be reduced other than tactical Murphy votes. That is a hell of a lot and he's still behind.
If you know any E Renfrewshire voter, I'll gladly vote swap to ANY party here in NE Derbyshire to see the back of him !
A couple of things about East Renfrewshire.
Most Postal Votes have been cast. That means the ability of Murphy to squeeze Tories (assuming older and much more likely to Postal) is reducing.
GOTV has to favour the SNP pretty markedly although, it is likely that East Ren is not a very well canvassed seat for the SNP (prior to this year) so it might not give them much if anything.
There's nothing else to squeeze. A few hundred Liberals and Others left.
Basically Murphy needs about 25% of the remaining Tory vote to switch. I wonder if he is already at the limit of switching. Tory vote is already 33% lower than it was in 2010 and there's no reason for the Tory vote to be reduced other than tactical Murphy votes. That is a hell of a lot and he's still behind.
I don't want to be denied my "Jim Murphy moment !"
IMO, the only thing that's changed is that tory cash has re-entered the market - blue punters fired up by seeing dave on tv last night.
I might be wrong though
Cue ashcroft polls showing the tories ahead in Doncaster N....
People misread Ed's "No Deals" with SNP line. There'll be a deal - Labour's Queen speech.
I *think* I'm clovered up well enough on the markets at this point though to not really care tbh though.
It would be funny if Labour were inept enough to offer the SNP concessions purely for the Queens Speech. I wonder if Labour are truly that dumb? It's possible.
It wouldn't surprise me if a "No deal" deal has already been done.
But if I am correct, didn't Sturgeon say somewhere that the SNP will vote for the Labour QS ?
No, all she's said is the SNP will vote against a Tory QS.
Basically there is no way the SNP will not vote for a Labour QS but Labour don't know this yet. If they offer initial concessions when they don't need to we know that a torrid time for Labour will be utterly, remorselessly miserable as they don't have the game to get anything from the SNP.
The SNP will always put Labour into power because it's once Labour are in office the SNP can use FTPA to really press their thumbs into Labour's windpipe.
Casino Remember Ashcroft had the Tories gaining Roxburgh and Berwickshire to make up for any loss in Dumfrieshire, so they would actually retain their 1 Scottish seat
I suspect DCT effect will hit BRS, no-one expected SNP to be so close so it will attract further support.
IMO, the only thing that's changed is that tory cash has re-entered the market - blue punters fired up by seeing dave on tv last night.
I might be wrong though
Cue ashcroft polls showing the tories ahead in Doncaster N....
People misread Ed's "No Deals" with SNP line. There'll be a deal - Labour's Queen speech.
I *think* I'm clovered up well enough on the markets at this point though to not really care tbh though.
It would be funny if Labour were inept enough to offer the SNP concessions purely for the Queens Speech. I wonder if Labour are truly that dumb? It's possible.
It wouldn't surprise me if a "No deal" deal has already been done.
But if I am correct, didn't Sturgeon say somewhere that the SNP will vote for the Labour QS ?
No, all she's said is the SNP will vote against a Tory QS.
Basically there is no way the SNP will not vote for a Labour QS but Labour don't know this yet. If they offer initial concessions when they don't need to we know that a torrid time for Labour will be utterly, remorselessly miserable as they don't have the game to get anything from the SNP.
The SNP will always put Labour into power because it's once Labour are in office the SNP can use FTPA to really press their thumbs into Labour's windpipe.
There is another reason. In the first election after the "defection" of large numbers of traditional Labour voters to the SNP, the SNP cannot be seen not to be installing a Labour government. In fact, that has been their "successful" campaign. Vote SNP, get Labour. At least, in places like Glasgow.
Comments
Ensures the Tory to Kip waverers come back.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 35s35 seconds ago
A lot of polls coming out in next hour or so
I *think* I'm clovered up well enough on the markets at this point though to not really care tbh though.
There's no doubt on the doorsteps there has been a softening of the labour vote in South West London where I have been all over.
Tories picking up perhaps 3% of Lib vote and Labour picking up maybe 5% Lib.
The real eye opener is that about 3% are moving from Con to Lab but 3% moving the other way.
And of definite Labour voters they don't like Ed and I get the feeling some may not vote.
Add in individual voter registration and I believe that Labour will not increase their vote from 2010 in South West London. (Add 5% Lib, lose 2% IVR, lose 3% soft)
As Tories may lose 5% at most to UKIP, their vote maybe down 2%. (add Lib 3% and take away UKIP 5%)
So I am forecasting 1% swing to reds.
Of course, I've been wrong in the past.
Heroes can't lie down
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMpl7eDEeYg&=&feature=youtu.be
Damn, not on this list.
Was hoping she'd be 1000.0
My prediction is Tories 300 seats and us Kippers 5, that would suit me betting wise and a continuation coalition is best for the country.
5 minutes after - a member of the Cabinet selected in consultation with the NEC
Alternatively, the bus driver. Arff!!
Then catch a quick nap.
Get up again at about 12:00 since morning counts will begin to come in and coalition talks or worse, "who has won ?" will fill the air.
Sleep early on Friday evening and wake up whenever. Saturday, Sunday.............
Would be some fantastic betting opportunities on that result
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft
But Murphy is getting some tactical Tories in East Ren.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CD7cbiTUMAAvJxp.jpg:large
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft
Must be all the immigrants.
I think IVR should have helped quite a bit - but it may vary from Council to Council how thorough they are.
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft
Ashcroft implies the Tories would do relatively worse than 1997 or 2001.
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft
CCHQ wishes they could clone me.
May2015 Election @May2015NS
Our sums hv assumed Tories wld hold Dumfriesshire up to this point. If SNP now 11 ahead, that's in effect a Lab gain.
If you know any E Renfrewshire voter, I'll gladly vote swap to ANY party here in NE Derbyshire to see the back of him !
But if I am correct, didn't Sturgeon say somewhere that the SNP will vote for the Labour QS ?
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft
On the other hand Croydon Central, tipped up as labour gain, looks like staying blue. And the tories streets ahead in Battersea!
I'd treat all of these with a big pinch of salt.
Pass me the smelling salts...
And no named candidates .... again. A missed opportunity.
Not much of a gambler, but bunked off the street stall for 5 mins to place a tenner on @John2Win at the bookies... pic.twitter.com/GoCdNTfUMY
lexmassie @alexmassie 13m13 minutes ago
@RuthDavidsonMSP What odds did you get? @John2Win
Ruth Davidson MSP @RuthDavidsonMSP 13m13 minutes ago
@alexmassie @John2Win 11/8.
I think Jim Murphy could scrape through in the end in a named poll.
Voting Lab substantially increasing the chances of Miliband becoming PM.
I think Con would have hoped for a bit better.
I would just like to point out that DCT is exactly how I said it would go, once people realised Mundell was actually in trouble the anti-Tory vote would flock in to the SNP candidate
£10 at 2/1 well invested.
EICIPM @ 1.86 on Betfair.
Funny, when you consider 48% of Labour members are Londoners.....
@LordAshcroft marginals polling:
Wirral W is LAB target number 40 from CON,
Poll has LAB gain
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB·6 mins6 minutes ago
@LordAshcroft marginals polling:
Norwich N is LAB target from CON number 52 & polling makes it LAB gain
Or
Pudsey is Lab target from Con number 22 and polling has CON hold
I'm on at better odds than what Ruth got.
What evidence is there that they are?
Murphy was always going to win. Even Fitalass , Carlotta are part of his fan club.
Most Postal Votes have been cast. That means the ability of Murphy to squeeze Tories (assuming older and much more likely to Postal) is reducing.
GOTV has to favour the SNP pretty markedly although, it is likely that East Ren is not a very well canvassed seat for the SNP (prior to this year) so it might not give them much if anything.
There's nothing else to squeeze. A few hundred Liberals and Others left.
Basically Murphy needs about 25% of the remaining Tory vote to switch. I wonder if he is already at the limit of switching. Tory vote is already 33% lower than it was in 2010 and there's no reason for the Tory vote to be reduced other than tactical Murphy votes. That is a hell of a lot and he's still behind.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.hu/2015/01/reality-check-testing-betting-markets.html
Re-final Ashcroft poll. Any Labour candidate not ahead by 7%-8% at this stage should be very, very worried.
Dan finger on the Pulse Hodges
Yep, disappointing for Con, is my take.
Basically there is no way the SNP will not vote for a Labour QS but Labour don't know this yet. If they offer initial concessions when they don't need to we know that a torrid time for Labour will be utterly, remorselessly miserable as they don't have the game to get anything from the SNP.
The SNP will always put Labour into power because it's once Labour are in office the SNP can use FTPA to really press their thumbs into Labour's windpipe.
However I am on the Cons at 6/4 so, whatever.