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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2010 LDs are splitting much more to LAB in the CON-held mar

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    Is this the first time Populus have had UKIP higher than average?

    Shouldn't their share go down if DK's reallocated to 2010?
    I make it 14.45% - can be 15% if you round up I suppose!
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    O/T I see Ben E King has died. Great shame
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Surely there must be someone high up in the BBC who is concerned about the questions surrounding its impartiality. Or am I just being naïve?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Grandiose said:

    O/T I see Ben E King has died. Great shame

    Sad news. Percy Sledge died only a couple of weeks ago IIRC.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Blimey I feel old.

    People born on the day Tony Blair was first elected Prime Minister, 1 May 1997, today become adults and voters

    — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) May 1, 2015
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015

    Surely there must be someone high up in the BBC who is concerned about the questions surrounding its impartiality. Or am I just being naïve?

    Why do they care? Money still rolling in, looks like Labour will get back into power, and with that guaranteed charter renewal with continuation of telly tax, happy days...

    There will be champagne bottles popping at a plenty at Broadcasting House if Ed makes it to #10 in a weeks time. And even if Cameron sneaks back via some Coalition with Lib Dems, they wont be doing anything about the BBC.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932

    Re. Eastleigh - I have zero local knowledge, but is it really such a nailed-on LibDem hold as the betting markets seem to think?

    At the last GE Chris Huhne's majority was 3,864, which wasn't the stuff of which impregnable fortresses are made. He was high-profile, and the LibDems were riding high. If there hadn't been a by-election, surely we'd be thinking it was very much in play on May 7th?

    Of course there was a by-election, but to secure it the LibDems had to throw not only the kitchen sink at it, but the whole kitchen. UKIP also did a fair bit of sink-throwing and nicked a large chunk of the Tory vote. They were helped by the fact that they had a very good candidate, whereas the Tory candidate was rather controversial.

    This time round, UKIP have fallen back (are they even trying here?), and the candidate advantage seems to have gone. The LibDems nationally are, how shall I put this, not expected to have their best ever night on May 7th. The mid-term effect no longer applies. Wouldn't we expect the Conservatives to do better this time round?

    I live half a mile outside Eastleigh constituency. I've seen LibDem posters and Tory ones (a lady called 'Mims' - and the Tory lady in Portsmouth South is called 'Flick'). I've also seen a UKIP double decker bus, completely empty.
    Mike Thornton seems to be popular locally and I would expect him to hold it. I'd expect UKIP to finish 3rd or 4th this time, but their presence will probably help the LibDems by depressing the Tory vote a bit.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658

    Surely there must be someone high up in the BBC who is concerned about the questions surrounding its impartiality. Or am I just being naïve?

    Rhetorical question, one assumes.
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154
    AndyJS said:
    Thought they already had :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Chris123 Wasn't that Reagan
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Financier said:

    Just had an amusing lunch with our window cleaners - they clean the sea spray from the windows of our Victorian building and we give them a cold lunch (as well as payment) - the business owner and his three employees.

    After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!

    We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).

    You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"

    Cold paninis? Yuk!

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    trawl said:

    The UKIP candidate for my (Brum) constituency is still standing at the nearby busy crossroads and just waving. He's done day after day there and long hours too. Always smartly turned out but I notice he has had one arm in a sling the past week or so.

    I guess he can't afford to charter a plane.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Surely there must be someone high up in the BBC who is concerned about the questions surrounding its impartiality. Or am I just being naïve?

    It's pro-Tory bias or its pro-Labour bias?
  • GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56
    They've already ordered the champagne. Beeboids expect to relive '97, if not in degree then in genera shift.

    Surely there must be someone high up in the BBC who is concerned about the questions surrounding its impartiality. Or am I just being naïve?

    Why do they care? Money still rolling in, looks like Labour will get back into power, and with that guaranteed charter renewal with continuation of telly tax, happy days...

    There will be champagne bottles popping at a plenty at Broadcasting House if Ed makes it to #10 in a weeks time. And even if Cameron sneaks back via some Coalition with Lib Dems, they wont be doing anything about the BBC.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820


    I've had a look at the polls from each company over the campaign. Interestingly, despite the impression of a slight Tory uptick, there's no evidence that there's been any changes over the campaign. All companies have stayed well within MoE changes of an average score over the campaign - and any apparent "in-step" shifts have been well within parameters of sheer randomness.

    For what it's worth, here are what each company appears to be measuring as their baseline average (ie the possible "true" value by their methodology, stripped of random variation; all averages rounded to nearest number):

    Phone Polls:
    ICM: Con 36; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 10
    Ipsos-MORI: Con 34; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 10
    Lord Ashcroft: Con 34; Lab 31; LD 9; UKIP 12
    ComRes: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 9; UKIP 11
    (Average across phone poll averages:
    Con 35, Lab 32, LD 9, UKIP 11)

    Internet Polls:
    YouGov: Con 34; Lab 35; LD 8; UKIP 13
    Populus: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 9; UKIP 15
    Opinium: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 13
    Survation: Con 32; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 17
    Panelbase: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 17
    TNS: Con 33; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 16
    (Average across Internet poll averages:
    Con 33; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 15)

    No polls have been outside of the MoE for each companies average. Ergo the "no change" hypothesis cannot be discounted.

    So if you look at any new poll (including today's Populus) and it remains pretty close to those figures above for that particular company, it's not really worth getting excited.

    That said, of course, real changes within the MoE will always be difficult to pick up.

    By the way, whilst all other companies were taken from the dissolution of Parliament, YouGov data was taken since the methodology change.
    Someday, someone is going to do a talk on 'regression to the mean'.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    On the campaign, Portillo and Neil last night were saying how dull the campaign was, with no big rallies like Wilson, Thatcher or Major or Kinnock held and not even Soapbox campaigning like Major and Wilson engaged in. Certainly compared to the razmatazz of US or French elections it is about as exciting as an election for the head of the Institute of Chartered Accountants with only Scotland and Sturgeon's helitour adding a bit of interest, in rUK the main party leaders are stagemanaged and scripted to the last minute. Election night though is set to be the most exciting and unpredictable since 1992
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    edited May 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Chris123 Wasn't that Reagan

    He made a joke and and said: “Recession is when your neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose yours. And recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his.”

    For the average voter it is economic growth if the ONS reports a plus in GDP, it is a recovery if they have more disposable income. But they don't.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    trawl said:

    The UKIP candidate for my (Brum) constituency is still standing at the nearby busy crossroads and just waving. He's done day after day there and long hours too. Always smartly turned out but I notice he has had one arm in a sling the past week or so.

    I guess he can't afford to charter a plane.
    It does seem a forlorn quest. I feel some sympathy.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Which party should Non-Doms vote for? :lol:
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Which party should Non-Doms vote for? :lol:

    Probably an increased charge even if Cameron stays in Number 10.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The first interesting seat from Scotland could be Rutherglen, which some people are saying might be one of the few seats Labour could hold onto.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Which party should Non-Doms vote for? :lol:

    Depends whether they've shorted Sterling.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Just to reassure Peter from Putney, I have plenty of odds-against constituency bets on the Conservatives.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721
    On posters in houses, as opposed to advertising hoardings in fields, Witham is a Lab gain. At least if round here is typical! The LD leaflet says almost nothing about who the canidate is and what her background is, apart from suggesting she’s had a “proper job” not one in PR (which was what PP did).
    There’s a UKIP candidate but we’ve seen nothing of him round here, not even in the "usual suspects” windpws. Presume realised he wa up against Patel who might as well be UKIP anyway!.
    Surprisingly, given that he’s a high profile local councillor we’ve seen nothing from the Greens.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,504
    Just seen the best ad of the election.

    Locally we have a skip hire and concrete delivery company called Mick George Skips. On the back of the local paper they have a strip ad:

    "Vote for S-KIP. We deliver what we promise - concrete solutions"
  • trawltrawl Posts: 142
    AndyJS - no, Perry Barr
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    AndyJS said:

    The first interesting seat from Scotland could be Rutherglen, which some people are saying might be one of the few seats Labour could hold onto.

    This is one of the seats which I would earnestly entreat the undecided to vote SNP in.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    antifrank said:

    AndyJS said:

    The first interesting seat from Scotland could be Rutherglen, which some people are saying might be one of the few seats Labour could hold onto.

    This is one of the seats which I would earnestly entreat the undecided to vote SNP in.
    Are there any Scottish seats where you wouldn't?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313

    Financier said:

    Just had an amusing lunch with our window cleaners - they clean the sea spray from the windows of our Victorian building and we give them a cold lunch (as well as payment) - the business owner and his three employees.

    After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!

    We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).

    You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"

    Cold paninis? Yuk!

    Panini. No s. It's already a plural.

  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174

    Which party should Non-Doms vote for? :lol:

    Depends whether they've shorted Sterling.
    None. The high tide will recede after May 7 when non-Dom bashing season will come to an abrupt end.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Investors have pulled a record £1 billion UK stock markets ahead of the general election, according to The Investment Association.

    With a huge amount of uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the general election, experts believe investors are securing their funds. Figures suggest that European equity funds are seeing their biggest inflow for 18 months at £663 million.


    link


  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721
    Just seen this, on the Beeb site
    "Richard Garvie, 30, who is standing for Wellingborough and Rushden, was found guilty of buying about £900 worth of train tickets using a bank account he knew contained insufficient funds.”
    "His name will stay on ballot papers as it is too late for it to be removed.”

    He’s the Labour candidate
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,150
    Oh, you'll either love or hate* the upcoming ELBOW graph of monthly phone and online polling going back to August.

    * depending on your politics, of course :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533

    Just seen this, on the Beeb site
    "Richard Garvie, 30, who is standing for Wellingborough and Rushden, was found guilty of buying about £900 worth of train tickets using a bank account he knew contained insufficient funds.”
    "His name will stay on ballot papers as it is too late for it to be removed.”

    He’s the Labour candidate

    Now former candidate...sort of....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2015
    Chris123 said:

    Which party should Non-Doms vote for? :lol:

    Depends whether they've shorted Sterling.
    None. The high tide will recede after May 7 when non-Dom bashing season will come to an abrupt end.
    I wouldn't count on it. There's a distinct risk that Ed Miliband is sincere in the tosh he comes up with, and of course the chances of fiscal self-harm increase dramatically if he's running a minority government propped up by various anti-prosperity parties.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    AndyJS said:

    The first interesting seat from Scotland could be Rutherglen, which some people are saying might be one of the few seats Labour could hold onto.

    This is one of the seats which I would earnestly entreat the undecided to vote SNP in.
    Are there any Scottish seats where you wouldn't?
    They should vote Conservative in Ayr Carrick & Cumnock or Dumfries & Galloway. Green in Edinburgh East please. I'd encourage them to vote Labour in Glenrothes, because it would suit me for Labour to take one seat and I have no money against them there. But generally you're right.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Betting on marginal constituencies

    I totted up yesterday on Betfair how many gains Lab would make if they won those where they are 8/11 or better (48) (40 from Con 8 from LD)

    There are a further 19 where they are priced GT 8/11 and LT 11/8.(18 from CON 1 LD)

    So for Lab to have most seats assuming a total Scottish wipeout looks like they may need

    1 To win all first category and retain 10 Scottish seats LAB 256 + 48- 31=273 CON 306-40 +12 from LD - 5 TO UKIP/SNP = 273

    OR

    2. Win all first category seats and half of second category seats and total wipeout in Scotland
    LAB 256 +48+10-41 =273

    I reckon this means if constituency betting is right LAB most seats hard to achieve.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721
    Bloody hell, Trott gets another duck!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    Presumably we have just see all of Trott's second last innings for England in the last 5 minutes or so. Why was Lyth not given a go?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    That must be the end of Trott
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721
    DavidL said:

    Presumably we have just see all of Trott's second last innings for England in the last 5 minutes or so. Why was Lyth not given a go?

    What about Boycott’s granny!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    I might try and produce a detailed tactical voting map shortly.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    AndyJS said:

    The first interesting seat from Scotland could be Rutherglen, which some people are saying might be one of the few seats Labour could hold onto.

    This is one of the seats which I would earnestly entreat the undecided to vote SNP in.
    Are there any Scottish seats where you wouldn't?
    They should vote Conservative in Ayr Carrick & Cumnock or Dumfries & Galloway. Green in Edinburgh East please. I'd encourage them to vote Labour in Glenrothes, because it would suit me for Labour to take one seat and I have no money against them there. But generally you're right.
    I question your impartiality in all this, I really do.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721
    edited May 2015

    Just seen this, on the Beeb site
    "Richard Garvie, 30, who is standing for Wellingborough and Rushden, was found guilty of buying about £900 worth of train tickets using a bank account he knew contained insufficient funds.”
    "His name will stay on ballot papers as it is too late for it to be removed.”

    He’s the Labour candidate

    Now former candidate...sort of....
    What happens if he wins, though. Doesn’t look like a disqualification offence; more a typical vindictive train company. Who didn’t even lose anything!
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    DavidL said:

    Presumably we have just see all of Trott's second last innings for England in the last 5 minutes or so. Why was Lyth not given a go?

    Maybe it was deliberate to see how good Ballance was against the opening bowlers, without the pressure of being an opener...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Just seen this, on the Beeb site
    "Richard Garvie, 30, who is standing for Wellingborough and Rushden, was found guilty of buying about £900 worth of train tickets using a bank account he knew contained insufficient funds.”
    "His name will stay on ballot papers as it is too late for it to be removed.”

    He’s the Labour candidate

    Surely spending money he hasn't got makes him eminently suitable to be a Labour candidate?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Sykes, I must agree. Postal votes should be granted sparingly. I hope journalists can do good work bringing abuses to light and allowing such things to be punished by the courts and elections, where necessary, to be run a second time.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Betting on marginal constituencies

    I totted up yesterday on Betfair how many gains Lab would make if they won those where they are 8/11 or better (48) (40 from Con 8 from LD)

    There are a further 19 where they are priced GT 8/11 and LT 11/8.(18 from CON 1 LD)

    So for Lab to have most seats assuming a total Scottish wipeout looks like they may need

    1 To win all first category and retain 10 Scottish seats LAB 256 + 48- 31=273 CON 306-40 +12 from LD - 5 TO UKIP/SNP = 273

    OR

    2. Win all first category seats and half of second category seats and total wipeout in Scotland
    LAB 256 +48+10-41 =273

    I reckon this means if constituency betting is right LAB most seats hard to achieve.

    http://www.firstpastthepost.net/ is your friend and better news for you too...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    Just seen this, on the Beeb site
    "Richard Garvie, 30, who is standing for Wellingborough and Rushden, was found guilty of buying about £900 worth of train tickets using a bank account he knew contained insufficient funds.”
    "His name will stay on ballot papers as it is too late for it to be removed.”

    He’s the Labour candidate

    Surely spending money he hasn't got makes him eminently suitable to be a Labour candidate?
    I couldn't work out whether he was giving an explanation or making a statement about Labour economic policy.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    edited May 2015
    Financier said:

    Just had an amusing lunch with our window cleaners - they clean the sea spray from the windows of our Victorian building and we give them a cold lunch (as well as payment) - the business owner and his three employees.

    After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!

    We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).

    You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"

    So your window cleaner is a Tory.

    Mine is Lab

    No wonder GE 2015 is on a knife edge!!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    SeanT said:

    marke09 said:

    WOW just spotted a REAL candidate - wonder if he will knock on the door - not voting for him tho but nice to know they do exist in real life

    I've had no-one here. Last time around I had Frank Dobson so close I could pour Rioja on his head from my Georgian Grade 2 balcony.

    This time no-one. And there are zero posters. No balloons by the Tube. No sense of an election at all, apart from a few leaflets.

    I guess Hoborn St Panc is a cert for Labour and the LDs are elsewhere, defending their redoubts, nonetheless the lack of action in such a close GE is odd.
    The lack of posters, public and private - you know, the ones in the living room window - and the great silence generally about this election is really weird. I put it down to the shy UKIPers in their millions waiting to plant their X on the voting slip. A revolution, done the British way is on the way.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Arf

    Just seen this, on the Beeb site
    "Richard Garvie, 30, who is standing for Wellingborough and Rushden, was found guilty of buying about £900 worth of train tickets using a bank account he knew contained insufficient funds.”
    "His name will stay on ballot papers as it is too late for it to be removed.”

    He’s the Labour candidate

    Surely spending money he hasn't got makes him eminently suitable to be a Labour candidate?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395

    Financier said:

    Just had an amusing lunch with our window cleaners - they clean the sea spray from the windows of our Victorian building and we give them a cold lunch (as well as payment) - the business owner and his three employees.

    After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!

    We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).

    You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"

    Cold paninis? Yuk!

    Panini. No s. It's already a plural.

    In Scrabble raviolis is an accepted plural - I once got a double triple and seven letter bonus with it, at the price of a huge row with my opponent who wouldn't accept it despite it being in the book ...

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 7 mins7 minutes ago

    After a year and nearly a quarter of a million interviews, my final round of constituency polling will be on @ConHome at 4pm.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721

    Chris123 said:

    Which party should Non-Doms vote for? :lol:

    Depends whether they've shorted Sterling.
    None. The high tide will recede after May 7 when non-Dom bashing season will come to an abrupt end.
    I wouldn't count on it. There's a distinct risk that Ed Miliband is sincere in the tosh he comes up with, and of course the chances of fiscal self-harm increase dramatically if he's running a minority government propped up by various anti-prosperity parties.
    He sounded last night as though he meant it. Didn’t entirely sound thought through, though. Wasn’t the original reason for non-dommery to encourage development of the W Indian sugar plantations, or something like that?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Mine is Lab

    LOL.

    He told you he's lab.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    Financier said:

    Just had an amusing lunch with our window cleaners - they clean the sea spray from the windows of our Victorian building and we give them a cold lunch (as well as payment) - the business owner and his three employees.

    After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!

    We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).

    You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"

    So your window cleaner is a Tory.

    Mine is Lab

    No wonder GE 2015 is on a knife edge!!
    Surely a window ledge?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    trawl said:

    The UKIP candidate for my (Brum) constituency is still standing at the nearby busy crossroads and just waving. He's done day after day there and long hours too. Always smartly turned out but I notice he has had one arm in a sling the past week or so.

    I guess he can't afford to charter a plane.
    Thats hilarious #logical_song ;)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Just seen this, on the Beeb site
    "Richard Garvie, 30, who is standing for Wellingborough and Rushden, was found guilty of buying about £900 worth of train tickets using a bank account he knew contained insufficient funds.”
    "His name will stay on ballot papers as it is too late for it to be removed.”

    He’s the Labour candidate

    Surely spending money he hasn't got makes him eminently suitable to be a Labour candidate?
    IFS say Tories biggest black hole though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 7 mins7 minutes ago

    After a year and nearly a quarter of a million interviews, my final round of constituency polling will be on @ConHome at 4pm.

    Oh thank goodness. Its been hours since the last poll. I would never have lasted till 10.30.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 7 mins7 minutes ago

    After a year and nearly a quarter of a million interviews, my final round of constituency polling will be on @ConHome at 4pm.

    Terrific and stirling work by Lord A, but I can't deny I will be relieved it's over!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    DavidL said:

    Financier said:

    Just had an amusing lunch with our window cleaners - they clean the sea spray from the windows of our Victorian building and we give them a cold lunch (as well as payment) - the business owner and his three employees.

    After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!

    We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).

    You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"

    So your window cleaner is a Tory.

    Mine is Lab

    No wonder GE 2015 is on a knife edge!!
    Surely a window ledge?
    Very good
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/tables/Con_seat_losses.html

    The best guide to Ed and Dave's chances.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr Owls, I'm not sure the IFS entirely desire their vaunted reputation. Sturgeon was right to point out they appeared to entirely miss out tax rises in their recent fisking of party policies, and several years ago they criticised the Coalition plans for not being progressive, due to plans to reduce welfare spending. The reduction being due to increased employment...
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    DavidL said:

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 7 mins7 minutes ago

    After a year and nearly a quarter of a million interviews, my final round of constituency polling will be on @ConHome at 4pm.

    Oh thank goodness. Its been hours since the last poll. I would never have lasted till 10.30.
    :lol:
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Royale, over? Over? Hahaha. Hahahahaha. MWahahahahaha!

    There's the post-election negotiation, in all likelihood. Chaos of unstable coalition or weak minority government and potential for a second election.

    In the words of Khan Noonien Singh: It's not over...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    taffys said:

    Mine is Lab

    LOL.

    He told you he's lab.

    Indeed

    Update on my stolen LAB poster.

    Its been returned by a man whose son took it home with him

    Whilst very drunk!

    Would have to have been i hear you say
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Survation poll being ramped by the Mirror.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 7 mins7 minutes ago

    After a year and nearly a quarter of a million interviews, my final round of constituency polling will be on @ConHome at 4pm.

    Terrific and stirling work by Lord A, but I can't deny I will be relieved it's over!
    I may be wrong about this but I think "stirling" was one of the pretend currencies that the SNP were going to keep at the time of the referendum. Sterling was the one we knew they really couldn't continue to use and might have been a more creditable description of Lord A's work.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    I'm taking this to mean a better poll for Lab

    https://twitter.com/JBeattieMirror/status/594120179283558400
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 7 mins7 minutes ago

    After a year and nearly a quarter of a million interviews, my final round of constituency polling will be on @ConHome at 4pm.

    Terrific and stirling work by Lord A, but I can't deny I will be relieved it's over!
    I'll second that. - His Lordship has certainly added a considerable amount of knowledge and betting oppotunities to PB over the past couple of years - An honourary PB POTY award is in order me thinks.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    I'm taking this to mean a better poll for Lab

    https://twitter.com/JBeattieMirror/status/594120179283558400

    I find it enormously surprising whenever the Tories are leading with Survation, but it's been three on the spin. 33-30 in the Mail after that one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Chris 123 Yes, that was it
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Next PM heading back towards another crossover?

    Cameron 2.14
    Miliband 1.88

    Con Most seats continuing to tighten - now 1.24.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,033
    Seems we're in for a treat this afternoon. I'll go Survation - Lab and Tories tied at 33% each
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    chestnut said:

    I'm taking this to mean a better poll for Lab

    https://twitter.com/JBeattieMirror/status/594120179283558400

    I find it enormously surprising whenever the Tories are leading with Survation, but it's been three on the spin. 33-30 in the Mail after that one.
    Fair to say it was unlikely to be better for the Cons.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Been out, nice to see PB continues to have such 'familiar' threads with their own distinctive agenda....
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    Financier said:

    Just had an amusing lunch with our window cleaners - they clean the sea spray from the windows of our Victorian building and we give them a cold lunch (as well as payment) - the business owner and his three employees.

    After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!

    We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).

    You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"

    So your window cleaner is a Tory.

    Mine is Lab

    No wonder GE 2015 is on a knife edge!!
    Shouldn't that be a window ledge? :grin:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    edited May 2015
    MikeL said:

    Next PM heading back towards another crossover?

    Cameron 2.14
    Miliband 1.88

    Con Most seats continuing to tighten - now 1.24.

    Those prices look about right to me now. (PM)

    Tories most seats is ludicrous at 1.24 though.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited May 2015
    ''Would have to have been i hear you say''

    Cheer up Mr Owls, looks like Survation might be better for lab. Spin may have gone too far by the looks of it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    At the risk of trying to pick a trend out of noise there does seem to have been a softening of the Labour vote in the last few days. Such better leads as the Tories have had seem to be coming from a fall in Labour support rather than a particularly strong rise in the tory vote.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.

    I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    Blue_rog said:

    Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.

    I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.

    Do you have a loud alarm clock?

  • CreidekkiCreidekki Posts: 18
    MikeK said:

    SeanT said:

    marke09 said:

    WOW just spotted a REAL candidate - wonder if he will knock on the door - not voting for him tho but nice to know they do exist in real life

    I've had no-one here. Last time around I had Frank Dobson so close I could pour Rioja on his head from my Georgian Grade 2 balcony.

    This time no-one. And there are zero posters. No balloons by the Tube. No sense of an election at all, apart from a few leaflets.

    I guess Hoborn St Panc is a cert for Labour and the LDs are elsewhere, defending their redoubts, nonetheless the lack of action in such a close GE is odd.
    The lack of posters, public and private - you know, the ones in the living room window - and the great silence generally about this election is really weird. I put it down to the shy UKIPers in their millions waiting to plant their X on the voting slip. A revolution, done the British way is on the way.
    The villages around Lewes are awash with posters and signs. Although once you cross the boundary there are no orange diamonds anymore
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm planning on early evening kip and alarm set for midnight. Then Red Bull and snacks to keep me up until it's all over :smiley:
    Blue_rog said:

    Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.

    I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Rog, reportedly, the way to go is a siesta during the day and having food and drink (non-sugary) ready to go during the night.

    Personally, I plan on doing that, but with sugary food [granted, my metabolic rate is like a hummingbird on speed].

    I once copied Napoleon's sleep pattern (from midnight to 2am, then up for a few hours of light work and food, then two more hours of sleep). It not only ruined my sleep pattern, it also wrecked my appetite. I only did it for one night, so maybe it'd work if done every night, but it's quite impressive to ruin two circadian rhythms.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Blue_rog said:

    Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.

    I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.

    I'm planning to be in London at the err event, but no idea if anyone else is !
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pulpstar said:
    37 at 50% or more.

    Its on a ledge of some kind
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    Mr. Royale, over? Over? Hahaha. Hahahahaha. MWahahahahaha!

    There's the post-election negotiation, in all likelihood. Chaos of unstable coalition or weak minority government and potential for a second election.

    In the words of Khan Noonien Singh: It's not over...

    Don't. My heart can't take anymore!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Who would become PM if Ed Miliband was hit by a bus shortly after May 7th, and Labour had "won" ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    I'm taking this to mean a better poll for Lab

    https://twitter.com/JBeattieMirror/status/594120179283558400

    It would be very bad news for Labour if they were on 29% again.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    Next PM heading back towards another crossover?

    Cameron 2.14
    Miliband 1.88

    Con Most seats continuing to tighten - now 1.24.

    Those prices look about right to me now. (PM)

    Tories most seats is ludicrous at 1.24 though.
    I still see EdM as a 4/6 shot.

    IMO, the only thing that's changed is that tory cash has re-entered the market - blue punters fired up by seeing dave on tv last night.

    I might be wrong though :)

    Cue ashcroft polls showing the tories ahead in Doncaster N....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    DavidL said:

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 7 mins7 minutes ago

    After a year and nearly a quarter of a million interviews, my final round of constituency polling will be on @ConHome at 4pm.

    Terrific and stirling work by Lord A, but I can't deny I will be relieved it's over!
    I may be wrong about this but I think "stirling" was one of the pretend currencies that the SNP were going to keep at the time of the referendum. Sterling was the one we knew they really couldn't continue to use and might have been a more creditable description of Lord A's work.
    Argh, bloody iPhone! He ain't half done a bad job, our Michael.

    How's that?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''I'm planning on early evening kip and alarm set for midnight. Then Red Bull and snacks to keep me up until it's all over.''

    I'll be in Barbados. 5am here about midnight there. I'm hoping they keep the pool bar open, I may need a few if its Ed/SNP.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    I'm taking this to mean a better poll for Lab

    https://twitter.com/JBeattieMirror/status/594120179283558400

    Why can't Labour just stay lying down?

    We don't want any nasty surprises like a rebounding Labour lead this late in the game. Grrr.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Royale, mwahahaha!

    It's not going to be as terribly prolonged and tragic as the final downfall of Byzantium.

    Probably.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Blue_rog said:

    Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.

    I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.

    Stay up till 10.15, we should have the exit polls by then.

    Head off to bed and wake up around 2 am when the decent results start coming in.

    I assume all PBers have taken off next Friday off from work?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Huckabee announcement video 'nailed shut'

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCueO9fSDXs
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Why can't Labour just stay lying down?

    Doesn't suit the media agenda?
This discussion has been closed.