Surely there must be someone high up in the BBC who is concerned about the questions surrounding its impartiality. Or am I just being naïve?
Why do they care? Money still rolling in, looks like Labour will get back into power, and with that guaranteed charter renewal with continuation of telly tax, happy days...
There will be champagne bottles popping at a plenty at Broadcasting House if Ed makes it to #10 in a weeks time. And even if Cameron sneaks back via some Coalition with Lib Dems, they wont be doing anything about the BBC.
Re. Eastleigh - I have zero local knowledge, but is it really such a nailed-on LibDem hold as the betting markets seem to think?
At the last GE Chris Huhne's majority was 3,864, which wasn't the stuff of which impregnable fortresses are made. He was high-profile, and the LibDems were riding high. If there hadn't been a by-election, surely we'd be thinking it was very much in play on May 7th?
Of course there was a by-election, but to secure it the LibDems had to throw not only the kitchen sink at it, but the whole kitchen. UKIP also did a fair bit of sink-throwing and nicked a large chunk of the Tory vote. They were helped by the fact that they had a very good candidate, whereas the Tory candidate was rather controversial.
This time round, UKIP have fallen back (are they even trying here?), and the candidate advantage seems to have gone. The LibDems nationally are, how shall I put this, not expected to have their best ever night on May 7th. The mid-term effect no longer applies. Wouldn't we expect the Conservatives to do better this time round?
I live half a mile outside Eastleigh constituency. I've seen LibDem posters and Tory ones (a lady called 'Mims' - and the Tory lady in Portsmouth South is called 'Flick'). I've also seen a UKIP double decker bus, completely empty. Mike Thornton seems to be popular locally and I would expect him to hold it. I'd expect UKIP to finish 3rd or 4th this time, but their presence will probably help the LibDems by depressing the Tory vote a bit.
Just had an amusing lunch with our window cleaners - they clean the sea spray from the windows of our Victorian building and we give them a cold lunch (as well as payment) - the business owner and his three employees.
After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!
We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).
You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"
The UKIP candidate for my (Brum) constituency is still standing at the nearby busy crossroads and just waving. He's done day after day there and long hours too. Always smartly turned out but I notice he has had one arm in a sling the past week or so.
Surely there must be someone high up in the BBC who is concerned about the questions surrounding its impartiality. Or am I just being naïve?
Why do they care? Money still rolling in, looks like Labour will get back into power, and with that guaranteed charter renewal with continuation of telly tax, happy days...
There will be champagne bottles popping at a plenty at Broadcasting House if Ed makes it to #10 in a weeks time. And even if Cameron sneaks back via some Coalition with Lib Dems, they wont be doing anything about the BBC.
I've had a look at the polls from each company over the campaign. Interestingly, despite the impression of a slight Tory uptick, there's no evidence that there's been any changes over the campaign. All companies have stayed well within MoE changes of an average score over the campaign - and any apparent "in-step" shifts have been well within parameters of sheer randomness.
For what it's worth, here are what each company appears to be measuring as their baseline average (ie the possible "true" value by their methodology, stripped of random variation; all averages rounded to nearest number):
Phone Polls: ICM: Con 36; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 10 Ipsos-MORI: Con 34; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 10 Lord Ashcroft: Con 34; Lab 31; LD 9; UKIP 12 ComRes: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 9; UKIP 11 (Average across phone poll averages: Con 35, Lab 32, LD 9, UKIP 11)
Internet Polls: YouGov: Con 34; Lab 35; LD 8; UKIP 13 Populus: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 9; UKIP 15 Opinium: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 13 Survation: Con 32; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 17 Panelbase: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 17 TNS: Con 33; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 16 (Average across Internet poll averages: Con 33; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 15)
No polls have been outside of the MoE for each companies average. Ergo the "no change" hypothesis cannot be discounted.
So if you look at any new poll (including today's Populus) and it remains pretty close to those figures above for that particular company, it's not really worth getting excited.
That said, of course, real changes within the MoE will always be difficult to pick up.
By the way, whilst all other companies were taken from the dissolution of Parliament, YouGov data was taken since the methodology change.
Someday, someone is going to do a talk on 'regression to the mean'.
On the campaign, Portillo and Neil last night were saying how dull the campaign was, with no big rallies like Wilson, Thatcher or Major or Kinnock held and not even Soapbox campaigning like Major and Wilson engaged in. Certainly compared to the razmatazz of US or French elections it is about as exciting as an election for the head of the Institute of Chartered Accountants with only Scotland and Sturgeon's helitour adding a bit of interest, in rUK the main party leaders are stagemanaged and scripted to the last minute. Election night though is set to be the most exciting and unpredictable since 1992
He made a joke and and said: “Recession is when your neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose yours. And recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his.”
For the average voter it is economic growth if the ONS reports a plus in GDP, it is a recovery if they have more disposable income. But they don't.
The UKIP candidate for my (Brum) constituency is still standing at the nearby busy crossroads and just waving. He's done day after day there and long hours too. Always smartly turned out but I notice he has had one arm in a sling the past week or so.
I guess he can't afford to charter a plane.
It does seem a forlorn quest. I feel some sympathy.
On posters in houses, as opposed to advertising hoardings in fields, Witham is a Lab gain. At least if round here is typical! The LD leaflet says almost nothing about who the canidate is and what her background is, apart from suggesting she’s had a “proper job” not one in PR (which was what PP did). There’s a UKIP candidate but we’ve seen nothing of him round here, not even in the "usual suspects” windpws. Presume realised he wa up against Patel who might as well be UKIP anyway!. Surprisingly, given that he’s a high profile local councillor we’ve seen nothing from the Greens.
Just had an amusing lunch with our window cleaners - they clean the sea spray from the windows of our Victorian building and we give them a cold lunch (as well as payment) - the business owner and his three employees.
After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!
We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).
You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"
Investors have pulled a record £1 billion UK stock markets ahead of the general election, according to The Investment Association.
With a huge amount of uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the general election, experts believe investors are securing their funds. Figures suggest that European equity funds are seeing their biggest inflow for 18 months at £663 million.
Just seen this, on the Beeb site "Richard Garvie, 30, who is standing for Wellingborough and Rushden, was found guilty of buying about £900 worth of train tickets using a bank account he knew contained insufficient funds.” "His name will stay on ballot papers as it is too late for it to be removed.”
Just seen this, on the Beeb site "Richard Garvie, 30, who is standing for Wellingborough and Rushden, was found guilty of buying about £900 worth of train tickets using a bank account he knew contained insufficient funds.” "His name will stay on ballot papers as it is too late for it to be removed.”
None. The high tide will recede after May 7 when non-Dom bashing season will come to an abrupt end.
I wouldn't count on it. There's a distinct risk that Ed Miliband is sincere in the tosh he comes up with, and of course the chances of fiscal self-harm increase dramatically if he's running a minority government propped up by various anti-prosperity parties.
The first interesting seat from Scotland could be Rutherglen, which some people are saying might be one of the few seats Labour could hold onto.
This is one of the seats which I would earnestly entreat the undecided to vote SNP in.
Are there any Scottish seats where you wouldn't?
They should vote Conservative in Ayr Carrick & Cumnock or Dumfries & Galloway. Green in Edinburgh East please. I'd encourage them to vote Labour in Glenrothes, because it would suit me for Labour to take one seat and I have no money against them there. But generally you're right.
The first interesting seat from Scotland could be Rutherglen, which some people are saying might be one of the few seats Labour could hold onto.
This is one of the seats which I would earnestly entreat the undecided to vote SNP in.
Are there any Scottish seats where you wouldn't?
They should vote Conservative in Ayr Carrick & Cumnock or Dumfries & Galloway. Green in Edinburgh East please. I'd encourage them to vote Labour in Glenrothes, because it would suit me for Labour to take one seat and I have no money against them there. But generally you're right.
I question your impartiality in all this, I really do.
Just seen this, on the Beeb site "Richard Garvie, 30, who is standing for Wellingborough and Rushden, was found guilty of buying about £900 worth of train tickets using a bank account he knew contained insufficient funds.” "His name will stay on ballot papers as it is too late for it to be removed.”
He’s the Labour candidate
Now former candidate...sort of....
What happens if he wins, though. Doesn’t look like a disqualification offence; more a typical vindictive train company. Who didn’t even lose anything!
Just seen this, on the Beeb site "Richard Garvie, 30, who is standing for Wellingborough and Rushden, was found guilty of buying about £900 worth of train tickets using a bank account he knew contained insufficient funds.” "His name will stay on ballot papers as it is too late for it to be removed.”
He’s the Labour candidate
Surely spending money he hasn't got makes him eminently suitable to be a Labour candidate?
Mr. Sykes, I must agree. Postal votes should be granted sparingly. I hope journalists can do good work bringing abuses to light and allowing such things to be punished by the courts and elections, where necessary, to be run a second time.
Just seen this, on the Beeb site "Richard Garvie, 30, who is standing for Wellingborough and Rushden, was found guilty of buying about £900 worth of train tickets using a bank account he knew contained insufficient funds.” "His name will stay on ballot papers as it is too late for it to be removed.”
He’s the Labour candidate
Surely spending money he hasn't got makes him eminently suitable to be a Labour candidate?
I couldn't work out whether he was giving an explanation or making a statement about Labour economic policy.
Just had an amusing lunch with our window cleaners - they clean the sea spray from the windows of our Victorian building and we give them a cold lunch (as well as payment) - the business owner and his three employees.
After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!
We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).
You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"
WOW just spotted a REAL candidate - wonder if he will knock on the door - not voting for him tho but nice to know they do exist in real life
I've had no-one here. Last time around I had Frank Dobson so close I could pour Rioja on his head from my Georgian Grade 2 balcony.
This time no-one. And there are zero posters. No balloons by the Tube. No sense of an election at all, apart from a few leaflets.
I guess Hoborn St Panc is a cert for Labour and the LDs are elsewhere, defending their redoubts, nonetheless the lack of action in such a close GE is odd.
The lack of posters, public and private - you know, the ones in the living room window - and the great silence generally about this election is really weird. I put it down to the shy UKIPers in their millions waiting to plant their X on the voting slip. A revolution, done the British way is on the way.
Just seen this, on the Beeb site "Richard Garvie, 30, who is standing for Wellingborough and Rushden, was found guilty of buying about £900 worth of train tickets using a bank account he knew contained insufficient funds.” "His name will stay on ballot papers as it is too late for it to be removed.”
He’s the Labour candidate
Surely spending money he hasn't got makes him eminently suitable to be a Labour candidate?
Just had an amusing lunch with our window cleaners - they clean the sea spray from the windows of our Victorian building and we give them a cold lunch (as well as payment) - the business owner and his three employees.
After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!
We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).
You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"
Cold paninis? Yuk!
Panini. No s. It's already a plural.
In Scrabble raviolis is an accepted plural - I once got a double triple and seven letter bonus with it, at the price of a huge row with my opponent who wouldn't accept it despite it being in the book ...
None. The high tide will recede after May 7 when non-Dom bashing season will come to an abrupt end.
I wouldn't count on it. There's a distinct risk that Ed Miliband is sincere in the tosh he comes up with, and of course the chances of fiscal self-harm increase dramatically if he's running a minority government propped up by various anti-prosperity parties.
He sounded last night as though he meant it. Didn’t entirely sound thought through, though. Wasn’t the original reason for non-dommery to encourage development of the W Indian sugar plantations, or something like that?
Just had an amusing lunch with our window cleaners - they clean the sea spray from the windows of our Victorian building and we give them a cold lunch (as well as payment) - the business owner and his three employees.
After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!
We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).
You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"
The UKIP candidate for my (Brum) constituency is still standing at the nearby busy crossroads and just waving. He's done day after day there and long hours too. Always smartly turned out but I notice he has had one arm in a sling the past week or so.
Just seen this, on the Beeb site "Richard Garvie, 30, who is standing for Wellingborough and Rushden, was found guilty of buying about £900 worth of train tickets using a bank account he knew contained insufficient funds.” "His name will stay on ballot papers as it is too late for it to be removed.”
He’s the Labour candidate
Surely spending money he hasn't got makes him eminently suitable to be a Labour candidate?
Just had an amusing lunch with our window cleaners - they clean the sea spray from the windows of our Victorian building and we give them a cold lunch (as well as payment) - the business owner and his three employees.
After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!
We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).
You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"
Mr Owls, I'm not sure the IFS entirely desire their vaunted reputation. Sturgeon was right to point out they appeared to entirely miss out tax rises in their recent fisking of party policies, and several years ago they criticised the Coalition plans for not being progressive, due to plans to reduce welfare spending. The reduction being due to increased employment...
After a year and nearly a quarter of a million interviews, my final round of constituency polling will be on @ConHome at 4pm.
Terrific and stirling work by Lord A, but I can't deny I will be relieved it's over!
I may be wrong about this but I think "stirling" was one of the pretend currencies that the SNP were going to keep at the time of the referendum. Sterling was the one we knew they really couldn't continue to use and might have been a more creditable description of Lord A's work.
After a year and nearly a quarter of a million interviews, my final round of constituency polling will be on @ConHome at 4pm.
Terrific and stirling work by Lord A, but I can't deny I will be relieved it's over!
I'll second that. - His Lordship has certainly added a considerable amount of knowledge and betting oppotunities to PB over the past couple of years - An honourary PB POTY award is in order me thinks.
Just had an amusing lunch with our window cleaners - they clean the sea spray from the windows of our Victorian building and we give them a cold lunch (as well as payment) - the business owner and his three employees.
After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!
We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).
You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"
At the risk of trying to pick a trend out of noise there does seem to have been a softening of the Labour vote in the last few days. Such better leads as the Tories have had seem to be coming from a fall in Labour support rather than a particularly strong rise in the tory vote.
Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.
I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.
I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
WOW just spotted a REAL candidate - wonder if he will knock on the door - not voting for him tho but nice to know they do exist in real life
I've had no-one here. Last time around I had Frank Dobson so close I could pour Rioja on his head from my Georgian Grade 2 balcony.
This time no-one. And there are zero posters. No balloons by the Tube. No sense of an election at all, apart from a few leaflets.
I guess Hoborn St Panc is a cert for Labour and the LDs are elsewhere, defending their redoubts, nonetheless the lack of action in such a close GE is odd.
The lack of posters, public and private - you know, the ones in the living room window - and the great silence generally about this election is really weird. I put it down to the shy UKIPers in their millions waiting to plant their X on the voting slip. A revolution, done the British way is on the way.
The villages around Lewes are awash with posters and signs. Although once you cross the boundary there are no orange diamonds anymore
Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.
I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
Mr. Rog, reportedly, the way to go is a siesta during the day and having food and drink (non-sugary) ready to go during the night.
Personally, I plan on doing that, but with sugary food [granted, my metabolic rate is like a hummingbird on speed].
I once copied Napoleon's sleep pattern (from midnight to 2am, then up for a few hours of light work and food, then two more hours of sleep). It not only ruined my sleep pattern, it also wrecked my appetite. I only did it for one night, so maybe it'd work if done every night, but it's quite impressive to ruin two circadian rhythms.
Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.
I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
I'm planning to be in London at the err event, but no idea if anyone else is !
After a year and nearly a quarter of a million interviews, my final round of constituency polling will be on @ConHome at 4pm.
Terrific and stirling work by Lord A, but I can't deny I will be relieved it's over!
I may be wrong about this but I think "stirling" was one of the pretend currencies that the SNP were going to keep at the time of the referendum. Sterling was the one we knew they really couldn't continue to use and might have been a more creditable description of Lord A's work.
Argh, bloody iPhone! He ain't half done a bad job, our Michael.
Slightly O/T but I'm trying to decide my strategy for next Thursday night. I'm normally in bed by 10.00pm so need to figure out how I can last until at least 3.00am.
I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
Stay up till 10.15, we should have the exit polls by then.
Head off to bed and wake up around 2 am when the decent results start coming in.
I assume all PBers have taken off next Friday off from work?
Comments
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21650113-despite-risk-europe-coalition-led-david-cameron-should-have-second-term-who
There will be champagne bottles popping at a plenty at Broadcasting House if Ed makes it to #10 in a weeks time. And even if Cameron sneaks back via some Coalition with Lib Dems, they wont be doing anything about the BBC.
Mike Thornton seems to be popular locally and I would expect him to hold it. I'd expect UKIP to finish 3rd or 4th this time, but their presence will probably help the LibDems by depressing the Tory vote a bit.
For the average voter it is economic growth if the ONS reports a plus in GDP, it is a recovery if they have more disposable income. But they don't.
There’s a UKIP candidate but we’ve seen nothing of him round here, not even in the "usual suspects” windpws. Presume realised he wa up against Patel who might as well be UKIP anyway!.
Surprisingly, given that he’s a high profile local councillor we’ve seen nothing from the Greens.
Locally we have a skip hire and concrete delivery company called Mick George Skips. On the back of the local paper they have a strip ad:
"Vote for S-KIP. We deliver what we promise - concrete solutions"
With a huge amount of uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the general election, experts believe investors are securing their funds. Figures suggest that European equity funds are seeing their biggest inflow for 18 months at £663 million.
link
"Richard Garvie, 30, who is standing for Wellingborough and Rushden, was found guilty of buying about £900 worth of train tickets using a bank account he knew contained insufficient funds.”
"His name will stay on ballot papers as it is too late for it to be removed.”
He’s the Labour candidate
* depending on your politics, of course
I totted up yesterday on Betfair how many gains Lab would make if they won those where they are 8/11 or better (48) (40 from Con 8 from LD)
There are a further 19 where they are priced GT 8/11 and LT 11/8.(18 from CON 1 LD)
So for Lab to have most seats assuming a total Scottish wipeout looks like they may need
1 To win all first category and retain 10 Scottish seats LAB 256 + 48- 31=273 CON 306-40 +12 from LD - 5 TO UKIP/SNP = 273
OR
2. Win all first category seats and half of second category seats and total wipeout in Scotland
LAB 256 +48+10-41 =273
I reckon this means if constituency betting is right LAB most seats hard to achieve.
Mr. Sykes, I must agree. Postal votes should be granted sparingly. I hope journalists can do good work bringing abuses to light and allowing such things to be punished by the courts and elections, where necessary, to be run a second time.
Mine is Lab
No wonder GE 2015 is on a knife edge!!
After a year and nearly a quarter of a million interviews, my final round of constituency polling will be on @ConHome at 4pm.
LOL.
He told you he's lab.
The best guide to Ed and Dave's chances.
There's the post-election negotiation, in all likelihood. Chaos of unstable coalition or weak minority government and potential for a second election.
In the words of Khan Noonien Singh: It's not over...
Update on my stolen LAB poster.
Its been returned by a man whose son took it home with him
Whilst very drunk!
Would have to have been i hear you say
https://twitter.com/JBeattieMirror/status/594120179283558400
Cameron 2.14
Miliband 1.88
Con Most seats continuing to tighten - now 1.24.
Tories most seats is ludicrous at 1.24 though.
Cheer up Mr Owls, looks like Survation might be better for lab. Spin may have gone too far by the looks of it.
I'm travelling back from Kent on the train during the afternoon so may be able to grab some shuteye then but what about early evening! Should I try and grab some kip early evening, with the risk I just sleep straight through or do the whole marathon bit. Decisions decisions.
Personally, I plan on doing that, but with sugary food [granted, my metabolic rate is like a hummingbird on speed].
I once copied Napoleon's sleep pattern (from midnight to 2am, then up for a few hours of light work and food, then two more hours of sleep). It not only ruined my sleep pattern, it also wrecked my appetite. I only did it for one night, so maybe it'd work if done every night, but it's quite impressive to ruin two circadian rhythms.
Its on a ledge of some kind
IMO, the only thing that's changed is that tory cash has re-entered the market - blue punters fired up by seeing dave on tv last night.
I might be wrong though
Cue ashcroft polls showing the tories ahead in Doncaster N....
How's that?
I'll be in Barbados. 5am here about midnight there. I'm hoping they keep the pool bar open, I may need a few if its Ed/SNP.
We don't want any nasty surprises like a rebounding Labour lead this late in the game. Grrr.
It's not going to be as terribly prolonged and tragic as the final downfall of Byzantium.
Probably.
Head off to bed and wake up around 2 am when the decent results start coming in.
I assume all PBers have taken off next Friday off from work?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCueO9fSDXs
Doesn't suit the media agenda?