Casino Remember Ashcroft had the Tories gaining Roxburgh and Berwickshire to make up for any loss in Dumfrieshire, so they would actually retain their 1 Scottish seat
I suspect DCT effect will hit BRS, no-one expected SNP to be so close so it will attract further support.
However I am on the Cons at 6/4 so, whatever.
I initially thought that but then considered it is the Liberals left to be squeezed in BRS whereas in DCT it is Labour. Labour will naturally coalesce as an anti-Tory vote. Liberals are nowhere near as likely and could easily go the other way.
There's no doubt on the doorsteps there has been a softening of the labour vote in South West London where I have been all over.
Tories picking up perhaps 3% of Lib vote and Labour picking up maybe 5% Lib.
The real eye opener is that about 3% are moving from Con to Lab but 3% moving the other way.
And of definite Labour voters they don't like Ed and I get the feeling some may not vote.
Add in individual voter registration and I believe that Labour will not increase their vote from 2010 in South West London. (Add 5% Lib, lose 2% IVR, lose 3% soft)
As Tories may lose 5% at most to UKIP, their vote maybe down 2%. (add Lib 3% and take away UKIP 5%)
So I am forecasting 1% swing to reds.
Of course, I've been wrong in the past.
Which constituency ?
Croydon Central, Battersea, Wimbledon, Mitcham & Morden, Carshalton and Wallington, Sutton and Cheam. I did say, Anecdote alert.
Mr. Dixie, I hope you're right on individual voter registration but the Times story mentioned on this thread make me worry the system might still be wide open to fraud.
Certainly 400 people in Merton who wanted to register didn't make the cut as they were still being verified on last day.
If Murphy sneaks in, and heads up say half a dozen scottish Labour mps, does his presence make it easier or harder for Milliband to do a "deal" with the snp? ie is it easier for Milliband if scottish Labour is wiped out, and he just negotiates a "deal" from an english Labour perspective?
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What's the downside to extending Ed's torment?
More than 4% swing in just 6 days - 3 of them holidays !
That said, yes, people will still cheat.
ie is it easier for Milliband if scottish Labour is wiped out, and he just negotiates a "deal" from an english Labour perspective?
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Place needs shutting down.