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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2010 LDs are splitting much more to LAB in the CON-held mar

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Are Scottish Conservatives totally mad?

    Voting Lab substantially increasing the chances of Miliband becoming PM.

    No.

    What evidence is there that they are?
    Con share down 10 points vs flat in national Scottish polls.
    In JIm Murphy's constituency

    What's the downside to extending Ed's torment?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 7m7 minutes ago
    Re-final Ashcroft poll. Any Labour candidate not ahead by 7%-8% at this stage should be very, very worried.

    Dan finger on the Pulse Hodges

    So, we should be more worried about the Hodges' swingback than Crosby's swingback ?

    More than 4% swing in just 6 days - 3 of them holidays !
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Still can't believe he didn't do Orkeny & Shetland
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    taffys said:

    Peterborough is major surprise LAB were 3.2 yesterday not even in my thoughts TBH

    On the other hand Croydon Central, tipped up as labour gain, looks like staying blue. And the tories streets ahead in Battersea!

    I'd treat all of these with a big pinch of salt.

    Croydon Central was 1.37 LAB Gain yesterday Battersea and Peterborough both 3.2 on Betfair yesterday
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino Remember Ashcroft had the Tories gaining Roxburgh and Berwickshire to make up for any loss in Dumfrieshire, so they would actually retain their 1 Scottish seat

    I suspect DCT effect will hit BRS, no-one expected SNP to be so close so it will attract further support.

    However I am on the Cons at 6/4 so, whatever.
    I initially thought that but then considered it is the Liberals left to be squeezed in BRS whereas in DCT it is Labour. Labour will naturally coalesce as an anti-Tory vote. Liberals are nowhere near as likely and could easily go the other way.
  • enfantenfant Posts: 34
    Unless there has been an overnight sea change
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Pulpstar said:

    Dixie said:

    Anecdote alert:

    There's no doubt on the doorsteps there has been a softening of the labour vote in South West London where I have been all over.

    Tories picking up perhaps 3% of Lib vote and Labour picking up maybe 5% Lib.

    The real eye opener is that about 3% are moving from Con to Lab but 3% moving the other way.

    And of definite Labour voters they don't like Ed and I get the feeling some may not vote.

    Add in individual voter registration and I believe that Labour will not increase their vote from 2010 in South West London. (Add 5% Lib, lose 2% IVR, lose 3% soft)

    As Tories may lose 5% at most to UKIP, their vote maybe down 2%. (add Lib 3% and take away UKIP 5%)

    So I am forecasting 1% swing to reds.

    Of course, I've been wrong in the past.

    Which constituency ?
    Croydon Central, Battersea, Wimbledon, Mitcham & Morden, Carshalton and Wallington, Sutton and Cheam. I did say, Anecdote alert.

  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Mr. Dixie, I hope you're right on individual voter registration but the Times story mentioned on this thread make me worry the system might still be wide open to fraud.

    Certainly 400 people in Merton who wanted to register didn't make the cut as they were still being verified on last day.

    That said, yes, people will still cheat.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    SPIN at 28 seats... must have missed that...
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    If Murphy sneaks in, and heads up say half a dozen scottish Labour mps, does his presence make it easier or harder for Milliband to do a "deal" with the snp?
    ie is it easier for Milliband if scottish Labour is wiped out, and he just negotiates a "deal" from an english Labour perspective?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    BBC Election 2015 Website

    Headline Story - Labour

    6 Emboldened stories - 5 Labour

    6 Video Stories - 2 Labour

    Place needs shutting down.
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