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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2010 LDs are splitting much more to LAB in the CON-held mar

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2010 LDs are splitting much more to LAB in the CON-held marginals than they are in standard national polling

I did some analysis earlier in the week on the way the LD vote was splitting comparing national with marginals polling. This came out before the latest ComRes/Mail poll and the above updates my previous comparisons.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    Guardian backs Labour

    "This newspaper has never been a cheerleader for the Labour party. We are not now."

    Is that a bit like the one that the BBC isn't left leaning and never has been?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    All about the ground game. And for those of you that don't know - the Tories have nothing.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Would appreciate definition of panda, please.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    edited May 2015
    Interesting splits in the monthly "Super-ELBOW" data for phone v. online polls, going back to August. - More later!

    I see Populus' poll today has a spiral of silence factor for an online poll - interesting. Assuming an Ashcroft-like assignment of 2010 "DK/refused/rather not say" as follows: 50% Con/Lab and 30% LD, the figures I get do just about correspond with Populus's table 4 :cold_sweat: :

    **waves to @Tissue_Price**
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Spiral of silence is a very interesting concept for an online poll.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    How many of these LDs from 2010 were disgruntled Lab supporters from 2005 - dismayed by Brown or disgusted by Blair and Iraq?

    Met a Green canvasser last week, who had left LDs because of coalition, but he sounded as if he was an ex Labour voter who had marched against Blair over Iraq. Perhaps he was a perpetual protest voter? He did have a beard, but I forgot to check if he wore sandals.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    IOS said:

    All about the ground game. And for those of you that don't know - the Tories have nothing.

    IOS,what's your seat prediction for tories and labour ?

  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    edited May 2015
    Prodicus said:

    Would appreciate definition of panda, please.

    Panda (n.) example of thing that is, or is expected soon to be present in Scotland in greater numbers than the commodity being derided (origin: forecast of number of Conservative MPs representing Scottish constituencies at Westminster after 2015 General Election)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :smirk:
    IOS said:

    Spiral of silence is a very interesting concept for an online poll.

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Tyke

    Think we will get a few more than them
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Today's Leamington Observer came with a wraparound for our local Tory MP Chris White. Must have cost a fair whack.

    http://www.leamingtonobserver.co.uk/paper/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Polruan said:

    Prodicus said:

    Would appreciate definition of panda, please.

    Panda (n.) example of thing that is, or is expected soon to be present in Scotland in greater numbers than the commodity being derided (origin: forecast of number of Conservative MPs representing Scottish constituencies at Westminster after 2015 General Election)
    Tories elected in Scotland pre-GE 2015:

    1 MP
    1 MEP
    15 MSPs
    115 local councillors

    Just sayin'...
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Surely any surviving members of SLAB will be Red Pandas?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRwiPJkm1WE
    Polruan said:

    Prodicus said:

    Would appreciate definition of panda, please.

    Panda (n.) example of thing that is, or is expected soon to be present in Scotland in greater numbers than the commodity being derided (origin: forecast of number of Conservative MPs representing Scottish constituencies at Westminster after 2015 General Election)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Joke coming up:

    Nicola Sturgeon is touring Perthshire in the First Minister’s chauffeur driven car.
    Suddenly a cow jumps out into the road. They hit it full on and the car comes to a stop.

    Nicola in her usual jaunty manner, says to the chauffeur : ” You get out and check – you were driving.”

    The chauffeur gets out, checks and reports that the animal is dead.
    ” You were driving, go and tell the farmer,” says Nicola, ”I can’t afford to be blamed for anything.”

    The chauffeur walks up the drive to the farmhouse and returns five hours later totally plastered, his hair ruffled and with a big grin on his face.

    ” My God, what happened to you ?” asks Nicola.

    The chauffeur replies : ” When I got there, the farmer opened his best bottle of malt whisky, the wife gave me a slap – up meal and the daughter made love to me.”

    ” What on earth did you say?” asks Nicola.

    ” I knocked on the door and when it was answered, I said to them, I’m Nicola Sturgeon’s chauffeur and I’ve just killed the cow.”
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    IOS said:

    All about the ground game. And for those of you that don't know - the Tories have nothing.

    How's it going in the southwest?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Interesting splits in the monthly "Super-ELBOW" data for phone v. online polls, going back to August. - More later!

    I see Populus' poll today has a spiral of silence factor for an online poll - interesting. Assuming an Ashcroft-like assignment of 2010 "DK/refused/rather not say" as follows: 50% Con/Lab and 30% LD, the figures I get do just about correspond with Populus's table 4 :cold_sweat: :

    **waves to @Tissue_Price**

    **waves back**
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Plato said:

    Surely any surviving members of SLAB will be Red Pandas?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRwiPJkm1WE

    Polruan said:

    Prodicus said:

    Would appreciate definition of panda, please.

    Panda (n.) example of thing that is, or is expected soon to be present in Scotland in greater numbers than the commodity being derided (origin: forecast of number of Conservative MPs representing Scottish constituencies at Westminster after 2015 General Election)
    Yebbut Red Pandas are more closely related to racoons than to bears :)
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Guardian backs Labour

    "This newspaper has never been a cheerleader for the Labour party. We are not now."

    Is that a bit like the one that the BBC isn't left leaning and never has been?

    And the comments section is comedy gold. 'Welcome back to the left' is the general gist. I think they have never been away. I used to read The Guardian is readable for Foreign affairs and sport when Labour in power but when they are not it just gets screechy.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    So this could cock up but

    Ed Miliband set a target of 4 million conversations. Yesterday we hit the mark. More in NW than anywhere else! #BOOM pic.twitter.com/l98dlML0Y1

    — Kevin Peel (@kevpeel) April 30, 2015
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    How do you get it to show the pic rather than just a link
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    IOS said:

    All about the ground game. And for those of you that don't know - the Tories have nothing.

    IOS said:

    All about the ground game. And for those of you that don't know - the Tories have nothing.

    The blues do have soldiers on the ground. It is intermittent but so is Labour's. The red's skill is focus. In South London everything is Battersea and Croydon Central only. Take them, then find more targets. However, I don't believe they will take both and perhaps neither.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    MikeK said:

    Joke coming up:

    Nicola Sturgeon is touring Perthshire in the First Minister’s chauffeur driven car.
    Suddenly a cow jumps out into the road. They hit it full on and the car comes to a stop.

    Nicola in her usual jaunty manner, says to the chauffeur : ” You get out and check – you were driving.”

    The chauffeur gets out, checks and reports that the animal is dead.
    ” You were driving, go and tell the farmer,” says Nicola, ”I can’t afford to be blamed for anything.”

    The chauffeur walks up the drive to the farmhouse and returns five hours later totally plastered, his hair ruffled and with a big grin on his face.

    ” My God, what happened to you ?” asks Nicola.

    The chauffeur replies : ” When I got there, the farmer opened his best bottle of malt whisky, the wife gave me a slap – up meal and the daughter made love to me.”

    ” What on earth did you say?” asks Nicola.

    ” I knocked on the door and when it was answered, I said to them, I’m Nicola Sturgeon’s chauffeur and I’ve just killed the cow.”

    Loses something in the incessant repetition, here and elsewhere.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    IOS said:

    So this could cock up but

    Ed Miliband set a target of 4 million conversations. Yesterday we hit the mark. More in NW than anywhere else! #BOOM pic.twitter.com/l98dlML0Y1

    — Kevin Peel (@kevpeel) April 30, 2015
    How do they define a conversation?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    When you can record information about that person I guess.

    Can someone get the figures posted as a pic?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    We at the Sunil on Sunday are mulling cutting this week's ELBOW short to include all field-work end-dates between the 26th and 30th, given that it's Election Day next Thursday and there's a Bank Holiday on Monday. Yesterday was the end of the month in any case. And we already have 14 polls this week, up to and including YG and Populus, a decent number (cf. 17 for whole of last week).

    What say you? How many polls are there likely to be with fieldwork between today and election day? I take it Wednesday will be the last "legit" day for publication?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2015
    With the shock announcement that the Guardian is backing Labour this time round, are there any papers left to endorse the Lib Dems?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    IOS said:

    So this could cock up but

    Ed Miliband set a target of 4 million conversations. Yesterday we hit the mark. More in NW than anywhere else! #BOOM pic.twitter.com/l98dlML0Y1

    — Kevin Peel (@kevpeel) April 30, 2015
    How do they define a conversation?

    "Give us your vote."

    "No".

    Tick
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    SPIN may be quite close to the final result now, but even I wouldn't be buying Tory seats at 293.

    On topic, I do wonder if Mike's editorials are trying to convince us, or himself. There is nothing new here on 2010 LDs splitting 2:1 in favour of Labour, and, when I did my analysis, it wasn't anywhere near as decisive as I thought it might be.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    @mikek I laughed, 5 years hard labour for that one.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    David

    As much as that is amusing that is good data. Saves wasteing time with them on election day :-)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    With the shock announcement that the Guardian is backing Labour, are there any papers left to endorse the Lib Dems?

    Who?

    Oh yeah, didn't they do something back in 2010?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    edited May 2015
    As it stands, the official ELBOW for the week so far has a 0.0% lead for Con (0.02%!) - but the YouGov-only subset says a 0.7% LAB lead, and the non-YouGov tally says a 0.8% CON lead!

    Take your pick! :lol:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    IOS said:

    David

    As much as that is amusing that is good data. Saves wasteing time with them on election day :-)

    I know but some things are just irresistible.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MikeK said:

    Joke coming up:

    Nicola Sturgeon is touring Perthshire in the First Minister’s chauffeur driven car.
    Suddenly a cow jumps out into the road. They hit it full on and the car comes to a stop.

    Nicola in her usual jaunty manner, says to the chauffeur : ” You get out and check – you were driving.”

    The chauffeur gets out, checks and reports that the animal is dead.
    ” You were driving, go and tell the farmer,” says Nicola, ”I can’t afford to be blamed for anything.”

    The chauffeur walks up the drive to the farmhouse and returns five hours later totally plastered, his hair ruffled and with a big grin on his face.

    ” My God, what happened to you ?” asks Nicola.

    The chauffeur replies : ” When I got there, the farmer opened his best bottle of malt whisky, the wife gave me a slap – up meal and the daughter made love to me.”

    ” What on earth did you say?” asks Nicola.

    ” I knocked on the door and when it was answered, I said to them, I’m Nicola Sturgeon’s chauffeur and I’ve just killed the cow.”

    That's almost funny ;)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The Indy did the LDs once didn't they?
    DavidL said:

    With the shock announcement that the Guardian is backing Labour, are there any papers left to endorse the Lib Dems?

    Who?

    Oh yeah, didn't they do something back in 2010?
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 354

    Guardian backs Labour

    "This newspaper has never been a cheerleader for the Labour party. We are not now."

    Is that a bit like the one that the BBC isn't left leaning and never has been?

    You have to laugh.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    DavidL said:

    IOS said:

    So this could cock up but

    Ed Miliband set a target of 4 million conversations. Yesterday we hit the mark. More in NW than anywhere else! #BOOM pic.twitter.com/l98dlML0Y1

    — Kevin Peel (@kevpeel) April 30, 2015
    How do they define a conversation?
    "Give us your vote."

    "No".

    Tick

    Precisely. Those who they've phoned or knocked-up. Even if they tell them to get lost, that counts.

    Rather than effusing about Labour policy and their manifesto, and being won round to it, which i presume is the message one is intended to get from this.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932

    With the shock announcement that the Guardian is backing Labour this time round, are there any papers left to endorse the Lib Dems?

    The link below is interesting. Is it really true that the Mail backed a Lib/Con coalition in 1974?

    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/may/04/general-election-newspaper-support#img-1
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718

    Plato said:

    Surely any surviving members of SLAB will be Red Pandas?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRwiPJkm1WE

    Polruan said:

    Prodicus said:

    Would appreciate definition of panda, please.

    Panda (n.) example of thing that is, or is expected soon to be present in Scotland in greater numbers than the commodity being derided (origin: forecast of number of Conservative MPs representing Scottish constituencies at Westminster after 2015 General Election)
    Yebbut Red Pandas are more closely related to racoons than to bears :)
    I may be malinging the species, but aren’t raccoons theiving little whatsits?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Isn't that Owen Jones with the champers?
    Pulpstar said:
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited May 2015
    The comments of the former Labour candidate for Wellingborough & Rushden -- now alas suspended from the Labour party because of fraud -- raised a wry smile from me.

    "My financial plan was poor and I was completely irresponsible by choosing to run up that debt, but I don’t accept that there is any evidence that I intentionally tried to keep money from the train company.

    I used the account and intentionally ran up the debt with the bank so that, when the payments to the train company didn’t authorise, the bank would honour them and add it to my own debt.

    I haven’t been dishonest in any way, I was just stupid.”"


  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    edited May 2015
    The comments are telling, particularly the Jolyon person who is rightly described as Stalinist by the sensible ones on there.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    With the shock announcement that the Guardian is backing Labour this time round, are there any papers left to endorse the Lib Dems?

    The link below is interesting. Is it really true that the Mail backed a Lib/Con coalition in 1974?

    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/may/04/general-election-newspaper-support#img-1
    I'm on tenterhooks for the Mirror's declaration..
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Is it really true that the Mail backed a Lib/Con coalition in 1974?

    What's shocking about that?

    They backed Mosley in the 30s
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Plato said:

    Surely any surviving members of SLAB will be Red Pandas?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRwiPJkm1WE

    Polruan said:

    Prodicus said:

    Would appreciate definition of panda, please.

    Panda (n.) example of thing that is, or is expected soon to be present in Scotland in greater numbers than the commodity being derided (origin: forecast of number of Conservative MPs representing Scottish constituencies at Westminster after 2015 General Election)
    Yebbut Red Pandas are more closely related to racoons than to bears :)
    I may be malinging the species, but aren’t raccoons theiving little whatsits?
    Hence Sunil's comment...?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Will populus be underestimating UKIP?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    With the shock announcement that the Guardian is backing Labour this time round, are there any papers left to endorse the Lib Dems?

    The link below is interesting. Is it really true that the Mail backed a Lib/Con coalition in 1974?

    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/may/04/general-election-newspaper-support#img-1
    Very snazzy graphic - cheers for the link Mr Song.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Plato said:

    Isn't that Owen Jones with the champers?

    Pulpstar said:
    Yes lol
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Just had an amusing lunch with our window cleaners - they clean the sea spray from the windows of our Victorian building and we give them a cold lunch (as well as payment) - the business owner and his three employees.

    After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!

    We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).

    You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    WOW just spotted a REAL candidate - wonder if he will knock on the door - not voting for him tho but nice to know they do exist in real life
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    With the shock announcement that the Guardian is backing Labour this time round, are there any papers left to endorse the Lib Dems?

    The link below is interesting. Is it really true that the Mail backed a Lib/Con coalition in 1974?

    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/may/04/general-election-newspaper-support#img-1
    The Times backing Attlee in '45 was the most surprising one to me.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    marke09 said:

    WOW just spotted a REAL candidate - wonder if he will knock on the door - not voting for him tho but nice to know they do exist in real life

    Have met 3 so far, 2 at door, and one in N Wales.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''The comments are telling, particularly the Jolyon person who is rightly described as Stalinist by the sensible ones on there. ''

    Some absolutely world class lefty squealing on there. Thoroughly enjoyable.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    taffys said:

    Is it really true that the Mail backed a Lib/Con coalition in 1974?

    What's shocking about that?

    They backed Mosley in the 30s

    As did the Daily Mirror.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Not seen anything from Labour around here. Perhaps that's why their MP is going to lose the election from having a 23% majority .........
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    It's the endorsement you've been waiting for.

    I'm endorsing a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition.

    5 more years please!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    marke09 said:

    WOW just spotted a REAL candidate - wonder if he will knock on the door - not voting for him tho but nice to know they do exist in real life

    I've had no-one here. Last time around I had Frank Dobson so close I could pour Rioja on his head from my Georgian Grade 2 balcony.

    This time no-one. And there are zero posters. No balloons by the Tube. No sense of an election at all, apart from a few leaflets.

    I guess Hoborn St Panc is a cert for Labour and the LDs are elsewhere, defending their redoubts, nonetheless the lack of action in such a close GE is odd.
    Isn't Natalie Bennett the Green candidate? I would have thought the leader should get a few posters at least.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    No Labour or Kipper leaflets here in Eastbourne. Haven't seen a single poster for either. Maybe I'm not well traveled enough round here!
    Andrew said:

    Not seen anything from Labour around here. Perhaps that's why their MP is going to lose the election from having a 23% majority .........

  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    SeanT said:

    marke09 said:

    WOW just spotted a REAL candidate - wonder if he will knock on the door - not voting for him tho but nice to know they do exist in real life

    I've had no-one here. Last time around I had Frank Dobson so close I could pour Rioja on his head from my Georgian Grade 2 balcony.

    This time no-one. And there are zero posters. No balloons by the Tube. No sense of an election at all, apart from a few leaflets.

    I guess Hoborn St Panc is a cert for Labour and the LDs are elsewhere, defending their redoubts, nonetheless the lack of action in such a close GE is odd.

    It really is the biggest non-election of all. Even in the neighbouring marginals around me it's just the odd Conservative board nailed up in a farmer's field.

    I can only assume the parties are so flat broke they can't afford to even put up a pretence of fighting a campaign in anything other than the core marginals.

    There's no sense of occasion at all, and it's not as if this is a foregone conclusion election like 2001 or 2005.

    It's bizarre, and rather a shame really.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    SeanT said:

    marke09 said:

    WOW just spotted a REAL candidate - wonder if he will knock on the door - not voting for him tho but nice to know they do exist in real life

    I've had no-one here. Last time around I had Frank Dobson so close I could pour Rioja on his head from my Georgian Grade 2 balcony.

    This time no-one. And there are zero posters. No balloons by the Tube. No sense of an election at all, apart from a few leaflets.

    I guess Hoborn St Panc is a cert for Labour and the LDs are elsewhere, defending their redoubts, nonetheless the lack of action in such a close GE is odd.
    I think it is true of a lot of places. I have been driving around a fair bit the past 2-3 weeks and see very very little in the way of what we traditional think of election time stuff like the posters, the window cards, etc.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    one of the hangers on knocked the door so i didnt bother answering and they left a flyer saying the candidate had called!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited May 2015
    Grandiose said:

    It's the endorsement you've been waiting for.

    I'm endorsing a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition.

    5 more years please!

    I'm not convinced Theresa May is right about this, but on the off-chance that she is I'm endorsing a Labour government propped up by the SNP.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3063425/Vote-deadlock-leave-exposed-terror-threat-says-Home-secretary-says-new-legislation-urgently-needed-update-MI5-GCHQ-s-power.html
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067

    As it stands, the official ELBOW for the week so far has a 0.0% lead for Con (0.02%!) - but the YouGov-only subset says a 0.7% LAB lead, and the non-YouGov tally says a 0.8% CON lead!

    Take your pick! :lol:

    I'll take the 0.7% Labour lead - tyvm.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    The comments are telling, particularly the Jolyon person who is rightly described as Stalinist by the sensible ones on there.
    i think labour dont like the fact that the audience wasnt entirely planted by their own...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    SeanT said:

    marke09 said:

    WOW just spotted a REAL candidate - wonder if he will knock on the door - not voting for him tho but nice to know they do exist in real life

    I've had no-one here. Last time around I had Frank Dobson so close I could pour Rioja on his head from my Georgian Grade 2 balcony.

    This time no-one. And there are zero posters. No balloons by the Tube. No sense of an election at all, apart from a few leaflets.

    I guess Hoborn St Panc is a cert for Labour and the LDs are elsewhere, defending their redoubts, nonetheless the lack of action in such a close GE is odd.
    I think it is true of a lot of places. I have been driving around a fair bit the past 2-3 weeks and see very very little in the way of what we traditional think of election time stuff like the posters, the window cards, etc.
    Absolubtely zip in my ward. V strong Labour area.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Is this the first time Populus have had UKIP higher than average?
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    Financier said:

    Just had an amusing lunch with our window cleaners - they clean the sea spray from the windows of our Victorian building and we give them a cold lunch (as well as payment) - the business owner and his three employees.

    After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!

    We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).

    You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"

    Sure, just confirms that many, if not most, voters vote with their pocketbook. Notice the decline in real wage growth since 2010:

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/04/29/1839682/chart-of-the-day-us-vs-uk-median-real-wage-growth-since-1988/

    That is why Camoron will lose the election. There may be GDP growth and unemployment numbers are down but Joe Normal has less money in his pocket.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Keith Vaz is making an effort. His beaming visage can be seen on posters outside the posher bits of Leicester East. Nothing in the backstreets. His picture and name are more prominent than Labour. No surprises there!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    notme said:

    The comments are telling, particularly the Jolyon person who is rightly described as Stalinist by the sensible ones on there.
    i think labour dont like the fact that the audience wasnt entirely planted by their own...
    I watched the whole thing today, I reckon the entire audience selection was done by somebody trying to discredit democracy by making it look like the voters are all shouty ignorant dimwits.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited May 2015
    SPIN not too far from the ARSE. Around 13 more Con gains from Lab and a handful more LDs and we'll be more or less there. SNP a shade toppy.
  • Financier said:

    Just had an amusing lunch with our window cleaners - they clean the sea spray from the windows of our Victorian building and we give them a cold lunch (as well as payment) - the business owner and his three employees.

    After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!

    We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).

    You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"

    Put him down as undecided!
  • DanielDaniel Posts: 160
    Greens resources are in Brighton and Bristol West. Carolina Lucas is on nearly all party materials (public know who she is)
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Tory Scum painted on car belonging to Charlotte Leslie's Dad.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Vandals-wreck-Bristol-MP-candidate-Charlotte/story-26425029-detail/story.html

    Not too long ago there was spray painting of Fracking Whore on her offices.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Chris123 said:

    Financier said:

    Just had an amusing lunch with our window cleaners - they clean the sea spray from the windows of our Victorian building and we give them a cold lunch (as well as payment) - the business owner and his three employees.

    After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!

    We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).

    You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"

    Sure, just confirms that many, if not most, voters vote with their pocketbook. Notice the decline in real wage growth since 2010:

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/04/29/1839682/chart-of-the-day-us-vs-uk-median-real-wage-growth-since-1988/

    That is why Camoron will lose the election. There may be GDP growth and unemployment numbers are down but Joe Normal has less money in his pocket.
    Wages are only part of it. There are 3 million fewer paying income tax because of LD policy.

    Also people vote about future prospects more than past. Which is why the economy matters.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2015
    Templar ‏@Templar42 13 mins13 minutes ago

    @LordAshcroft have the BBC officially endorsed Labour yet?


    (I'll keep you updatet on his Lordships reply) :lol:
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Just been reading an interest couple of snippets in The Times about postal votes.

    Firstly, that enough have been sent out and returned in the key marginals that the election has probably already been decided a week before the rest of us vote (ie, the floating voters out there still left are such a small number as to possibly make little difference).

    Second, that there are murky goings on allegedly in Pendle, Lancashire, a seat I have taken a close interest in having lived only a couple of miles on the wrong side of the boundary of it for much of my life. There has once again been a surge in postal voting requests, mostly in Asian-strong wards, and Labour has picked an Asian candidate this time. The Times reporter allegedly following the postal ballot deliveries spotted some homes with up to 10 (TEN) ballot papers being posted through the letterbox. The Tories locally believe this could cost them the seat, after an unlikely Labour council win last year in a Tory held ward (and it has been Tory all my life as far as I know) that followed a postal ballot surge last year.

    I had my doubts about Stephenson holding on anyway, even though I believe Ashcroft had it down as a hold, but this development makes me think it even less hopeful for the Tories.

    I want postal ballots on demand scrapped. Alongside our duff electoral system, it is robbing us of democracy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711

    notme said:

    The comments are telling, particularly the Jolyon person who is rightly described as Stalinist by the sensible ones on there.
    i think labour dont like the fact that the audience wasnt entirely planted by their own...
    I watched the whole thing today, I reckon the entire audience selection was done by somebody trying to discredit democracy by making it look like the voters are all shouty ignorant dimwits.
    Oh dear. Didn't like precious little Ed getting a good grilling, did we?

    The audience was superb. Put all three party leaders on their toes. I thought it was excellent.
  • trawltrawl Posts: 142
    The UKIP candidate for my (Brum) constituency is still standing at the nearby busy crossroads and just waving. He's done day after day there and long hours too. Always smartly turned out but I notice he has had one arm in a sling the past week or so.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Just been reading an interest couple of snippets in The Times about postal votes.

    Firstly, that enough have been sent out and returned in the key marginals that the election has probably already been decided a week before the rest of us vote (ie, the floating voters out there still left are such a small number as to possibly make little difference).

    Second, that there are murky goings on allegedly in Pendle, Lancashire, a seat I have taken a close interest in having lived only a couple of miles on the wrong side of the boundary of it for much of my life. There has once again been a surge in postal voting requests, mostly in Asian-strong wards, and Labour has picked an Asian candidate this time. The Times reporter allegedly following the postal ballot deliveries spotted some homes with up to 10 (TEN) ballot papers being posted through the letterbox. The Tories locally believe this could cost them the seat, after an unlikely Labour council win last year in a Tory held ward (and it has been Tory all my life as far as I know) that followed a postal ballot surge last year.

    I had my doubts about Stephenson holding on anyway, even though I believe Ashcroft had it down as a hold, but this development makes me think it even less hopeful for the Tories.

    I want postal ballots on demand scrapped. Alongside our duff electoral system, it is robbing us of democracy.

    Dodged betting on Pendle tbh ! In the strong NW area but narrow Tory lead on Ashcroft = Hmmm!
  • Andy_Cooke1Andy_Cooke1 Posts: 21

    I've had a look at the polls from each company over the campaign. Interestingly, despite the impression of a slight Tory uptick, there's no evidence that there's been any changes over the campaign. All companies have stayed well within MoE changes of an average score over the campaign - and any apparent "in-step" shifts have been well within parameters of sheer randomness.

    For what it's worth, here are what each company appears to be measuring as their baseline average (ie the possible "true" value by their methodology, stripped of random variation; all averages rounded to nearest number):

    Phone Polls:
    ICM: Con 36; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 10
    Ipsos-MORI: Con 34; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 10
    Lord Ashcroft: Con 34; Lab 31; LD 9; UKIP 12
    ComRes: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 9; UKIP 11
    (Average across phone poll averages:
    Con 35, Lab 32, LD 9, UKIP 11)

    Internet Polls:
    YouGov: Con 34; Lab 35; LD 8; UKIP 13
    Populus: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 9; UKIP 15
    Opinium: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 13
    Survation: Con 32; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 17
    Panelbase: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 17
    TNS: Con 33; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 16
    (Average across Internet poll averages:
    Con 33; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 15)

    No polls have been outside of the MoE for each companies average. Ergo the "no change" hypothesis cannot be discounted.

    So if you look at any new poll (including today's Populus) and it remains pretty close to those figures above for that particular company, it's not really worth getting excited.

    That said, of course, real changes within the MoE will always be difficult to pick up.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179

    notme said:

    The comments are telling, particularly the Jolyon person who is rightly described as Stalinist by the sensible ones on there.
    i think labour dont like the fact that the audience wasnt entirely planted by their own...
    I watched the whole thing today, I reckon the entire audience selection was done by somebody trying to discredit democracy by making it look like the voters are all shouty ignorant dimwits.
    Oh dear. Didn't like precious little Ed getting a good grilling, did we?

    The audience was superb. Put all three party leaders on their toes. I thought it was excellent.
    The bluff Yorkshireman who challenged Dave on the unsustainability of the NHS - "No, you ARE wrong Prime Minister, I'm right and I should be up there" - was my favourite.

    The chap was indeed right, saying the unsayable. Sadly, I suspect he was a good old Yorkshire Tory too but only managed to nobble his own man...

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Daniel said:

    Greens resources are in Brighton and Bristol West. Carolina Lucas is on nearly all party materials (public know who she is)

    The poll showing them in 2nd gives the Greens a great shot at really going for Bristol West now. I think Labour gain it, but the Greens will be buoyed to be ahead of the yellow peril there. Tories non runners here.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AndyJS said:

    Is this the first time Populus have had UKIP higher than average?

    Shouldn't their share go down if DK's reallocated to 2010?
  • No sign of the UK election whatever here in the Hague.

    At lunch we had me and another Brit being asked by two Dutch colleagues what we were talking about (QT performance) and to explain who was on:
    Cameron is PM and leader of the sensible nasty party.
    Miliband is a cyberman and leader of the communist central planning party.
    Clegg is someone but we're not entirely sure who and leader of the gay vegans in sandals party.

    After some clarifications is was noted that they don't have any centre right parties in the Netherlands and the choice is left or lefter. The EU is in good hands!
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    IOS said:

    So this could cock up but

    Ed Miliband set a target of 4 million conversations. Yesterday we hit the mark. More in NW than anywhere else! #BOOM pic.twitter.com/l98dlML0Y1

    — Kevin Peel (@kevpeel) April 30, 2015
    How do they define a conversation?

    a local candidate claimed, with just two of them out, they had '400 conversations'. They can only do that if they are recording outs as conversations. No other way. You cannot canvass 400 people with two canvassers in one afternoon.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited May 2015

    notme said:

    The comments are telling, particularly the Jolyon person who is rightly described as Stalinist by the sensible ones on there.
    i think labour dont like the fact that the audience wasnt entirely planted by their own...
    I watched the whole thing today, I reckon the entire audience selection was done by somebody trying to discredit democracy by making it look like the voters are all shouty ignorant dimwits.
    Oh dear. Didn't like precious little Ed getting a good grilling, did we?

    The audience was superb. Put all three party leaders on their toes. I thought it was excellent.
    It wasn't just the questions for Ed, the questions for Cameron were as bad or worse. The party leaders weren't on their toes, they were responding to the same tedious recycled bits of political spin they spend the rest of their time fielding, only instead of coming from professionals who understand that they're pushing political spin, they were coming from gullible would-be-politicians who aren't able to tell the difference between reality and the political messages they were reciting.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Pulpstar said:

    Just been reading an interest couple of snippets in The Times about postal votes.

    Firstly, that enough have been sent out and returned in the key marginals that the election has probably already been decided a week before the rest of us vote (ie, the floating voters out there still left are such a small number as to possibly make little difference).

    Second, that there are murky goings on allegedly in Pendle, Lancashire, a seat I have taken a close interest in having lived only a couple of miles on the wrong side of the boundary of it for much of my life. There has once again been a surge in postal voting requests, mostly in Asian-strong wards, and Labour has picked an Asian candidate this time. The Times reporter allegedly following the postal ballot deliveries spotted some homes with up to 10 (TEN) ballot papers being posted through the letterbox. The Tories locally believe this could cost them the seat, after an unlikely Labour council win last year in a Tory held ward (and it has been Tory all my life as far as I know) that followed a postal ballot surge last year.

    I had my doubts about Stephenson holding on anyway, even though I believe Ashcroft had it down as a hold, but this development makes me think it even less hopeful for the Tories.

    I want postal ballots on demand scrapped. Alongside our duff electoral system, it is robbing us of democracy.

    Dodged betting on Pendle tbh ! In the strong NW area but narrow Tory lead on Ashcroft = Hmmm!
    I do agree that postal votes must only go to: Disabled, pensioners 75+ and those who can prove they are out of the constituency on polling day. It's use to fix elections and is appalling.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited May 2015
    Re. Eastleigh - I have zero local knowledge, but is it really such a nailed-on LibDem hold as the betting markets seem to think?

    At the last GE Chris Huhne's majority was 3,864, which wasn't the stuff of which impregnable fortresses are made. He was high-profile, and the LibDems were riding high. If there hadn't been a by-election, surely we'd be thinking it was very much in play on May 7th?

    Of course there was a by-election, but to secure it the LibDems had to throw not only the kitchen sink at it, but the whole kitchen. UKIP also did a fair bit of sink-throwing and nicked a large chunk of the Tory vote. They were helped by the fact that they had a very good candidate, whereas the Tory candidate was rather controversial.

    This time round, UKIP have fallen back (are they even trying here?), and the candidate advantage seems to have gone. The LibDems nationally are, how shall I put this, not expected to have their best ever night on May 7th. The mid-term effect no longer applies. Wouldn't we expect the Conservatives to do better this time round?
  • Andy_Cooke1Andy_Cooke1 Posts: 21


    I've had a look at the polls from each company over the campaign. Interestingly, despite the impression of a slight Tory uptick, there's no evidence that there's been any changes over the campaign. All companies have stayed well within MoE changes of an average score over the campaign - and any apparent "in-step" shifts have been well within parameters of sheer randomness.

    For what it's worth, here are what each company appears to be measuring as their baseline average (ie the possible "true" value by their methodology, stripped of random variation; all averages rounded to nearest number):

    Phone Polls:
    ICM: Con 36; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 10
    Ipsos-MORI: Con 34; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 10
    Lord Ashcroft: Con 34; Lab 31; LD 9; UKIP 12
    ComRes: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 9; UKIP 11
    (Average across phone poll averages:
    Con 35, Lab 32, LD 9, UKIP 11)

    Internet Polls:
    YouGov: Con 34; Lab 35; LD 8; UKIP 13
    Populus: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 9; UKIP 15
    Opinium: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 13
    Survation: Con 32; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 17
    Panelbase: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 17
    TNS: Con 33; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 16
    (Average across Internet poll averages:
    Con 33; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 15)

    No polls have been outside of the MoE for each companies average. Ergo the "no change" hypothesis cannot be discounted.

    So if you look at any new poll (including today's Populus) and it remains pretty close to those figures above for that particular company, it's not really worth getting excited.

    That said, of course, real changes within the MoE will always be difficult to pick up.

    By the way, whilst all other companies were taken from the dissolution of Parliament, YouGov data was taken since the methodology change.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 27 secs28 seconds ago

    Waiting now for the BBC to formally endorse Labour....


    Arf.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Patrick said:

    No sign of the UK election whatever here in the Hague.

    At lunch we had me and another Brit being asked by two Dutch colleagues what we were talking about (QT performance) and to explain who was on:
    Cameron is PM and leader of the sensible nasty party.
    Miliband is a cyberman and leader of the communist central planning party.
    Clegg is someone but we're not entirely sure who and leader of the gay vegans in sandals party.

    After some clarifications is was noted that they don't have any centre right parties in the Netherlands and the choice is left or lefter. The EU is in good hands!

    The lefty dutch person I know paints Rutte as being more Thatcherite than Cameron, which does seem a bit harsh.

    I guess with Wilders, they have a more solidly defined nasty party so the centre-right-ish party doesn't get a fraction of the nastiness (see Charlotte leslie, below).

    Incidentally - "Charlotte Leslie Baywatch" is a google worth doing.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    During there first four months of 2015, there have been 169 online polls, but only 34 phone polls. (field-work end dates 1st Jan to 30th April)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    edited May 2015
    What really counts for the average voter is their bottom line: Am I better off than I was 5 years ago? You're obviously living in some cocoon. You know the old saying by Harry Truman: "It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours." Well, let me add, "there's economic growth according to the Office for National Statistics, it's a recovery when you have more money in your wallet." The average voter has less money in his/her wallet.

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21627665-workers-continue-feel-pinch-what-recovery
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    trawl said:

    The UKIP candidate for my (Brum) constituency is still standing at the nearby busy crossroads and just waving. He's done day after day there and long hours too. Always smartly turned out but I notice he has had one arm in a sling the past week or so.

    Northfield?
This discussion has been closed.