politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2010 LDs are splitting much more to LAB in the CON-held mar
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2010 LDs are splitting much more to LAB in the CON-held marginals than they are in standard national polling
I did some analysis earlier in the week on the way the LD vote was splitting comparing national with marginals polling. This came out before the latest ComRes/Mail poll and the above updates my previous comparisons.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
"This newspaper has never been a cheerleader for the Labour party. We are not now."
Is that a bit like the one that the BBC isn't left leaning and never has been?
I see Populus' poll today has a spiral of silence factor for an online poll - interesting. Assuming an Ashcroft-like assignment of 2010 "DK/refused/rather not say" as follows: 50% Con/Lab and 30% LD, the figures I get do just about correspond with Populus's table 4
**waves to @Tissue_Price**
Met a Green canvasser last week, who had left LDs because of coalition, but he sounded as if he was an ex Labour voter who had marched against Blair over Iraq. Perhaps he was a perpetual protest voter? He did have a beard, but I forgot to check if he wore sandals.
Think we will get a few more than them
http://www.leamingtonobserver.co.uk/paper/
1 MP
1 MEP
15 MSPs
115 local councillors
Just sayin'...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRwiPJkm1WE
Nicola Sturgeon is touring Perthshire in the First Minister’s chauffeur driven car.
Suddenly a cow jumps out into the road. They hit it full on and the car comes to a stop.
Nicola in her usual jaunty manner, says to the chauffeur : ” You get out and check – you were driving.”
The chauffeur gets out, checks and reports that the animal is dead.
” You were driving, go and tell the farmer,” says Nicola, ”I can’t afford to be blamed for anything.”
The chauffeur walks up the drive to the farmhouse and returns five hours later totally plastered, his hair ruffled and with a big grin on his face.
” My God, what happened to you ?” asks Nicola.
The chauffeur replies : ” When I got there, the farmer opened his best bottle of malt whisky, the wife gave me a slap – up meal and the daughter made love to me.”
” What on earth did you say?” asks Nicola.
” I knocked on the door and when it was answered, I said to them, I’m Nicola Sturgeon’s chauffeur and I’ve just killed the cow.”
http://www.edinburghzoo.org.uk/news/2015/03/giant-panda-breeding-season-update/
http://labourlist.org/2015/05/about-that-question-time-audience/
Can someone get the figures posted as a pic?
What say you? How many polls are there likely to be with fieldwork between today and election day? I take it Wednesday will be the last "legit" day for publication?
"Give us your vote."
"No".
Tick
On topic, I do wonder if Mike's editorials are trying to convince us, or himself. There is nothing new here on 2010 LDs splitting 2:1 in favour of Labour, and, when I did my analysis, it wasn't anywhere near as decisive as I thought it might be.
As much as that is amusing that is good data. Saves wasteing time with them on election day :-)
Oh yeah, didn't they do something back in 2010?
Take your pick!
"No".
Tick
Precisely. Those who they've phoned or knocked-up. Even if they tell them to get lost, that counts.
Rather than effusing about Labour policy and their manifesto, and being won round to it, which i presume is the message one is intended to get from this.
Poster of the Election imo.
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/may/04/general-election-newspaper-support#img-1
"My financial plan was poor and I was completely irresponsible by choosing to run up that debt, but I don’t accept that there is any evidence that I intentionally tried to keep money from the train company.
I used the account and intentionally ran up the debt with the bank so that, when the payments to the train company didn’t authorise, the bank would honour them and add it to my own debt.
I haven’t been dishonest in any way, I was just stupid.”"
What's shocking about that?
They backed Mosley in the 30s
After munching of paninis and slurps of tea, the owner asked if I watched the debate last night and replied not as was out. He said, "that plonker Miliband may have taught economics - looked him up - but obvious he has never used them; didn't even know the difference between a small business and Tesco!!
We're having a better year, things are looking up, will be able to take the wife and kids away for a holiday this summer and the lads (his employees) will be able to afford a week in a van (static caravan).
You know the big house down the road overlooking the sea (about 3 miles away), well its been bought by one of those non-doms - Russian I think - - not there very often but we get to clean all the windows every two weeks and the whole inside before they come to stay - good work for us. And that tw*t Miliband wants to tax them out of the country - plain he's never run and struggled with a small business. If we don't get enough work, have to spend less - bank wont give us a loan. Obvious he's never been used to a budget - what a p***k and bet he's no use with that either!"
Some absolutely world class lefty squealing on there. Thoroughly enjoyable.
I'm endorsing a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition.
5 more years please!
It really is the biggest non-election of all. Even in the neighbouring marginals around me it's just the odd Conservative board nailed up in a farmer's field.
I can only assume the parties are so flat broke they can't afford to even put up a pretence of fighting a campaign in anything other than the core marginals.
There's no sense of occasion at all, and it's not as if this is a foregone conclusion election like 2001 or 2005.
It's bizarre, and rather a shame really.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3063425/Vote-deadlock-leave-exposed-terror-threat-says-Home-secretary-says-new-legislation-urgently-needed-update-MI5-GCHQ-s-power.html
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/04/29/1839682/chart-of-the-day-us-vs-uk-median-real-wage-growth-since-1988/
That is why Camoron will lose the election. There may be GDP growth and unemployment numbers are down but Joe Normal has less money in his pocket.
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Vandals-wreck-Bristol-MP-candidate-Charlotte/story-26425029-detail/story.html
Not too long ago there was spray painting of Fracking Whore on her offices.
Also people vote about future prospects more than past. Which is why the economy matters.
@LordAshcroft have the BBC officially endorsed Labour yet?
(I'll keep you updatet on his Lordships reply)
Firstly, that enough have been sent out and returned in the key marginals that the election has probably already been decided a week before the rest of us vote (ie, the floating voters out there still left are such a small number as to possibly make little difference).
Second, that there are murky goings on allegedly in Pendle, Lancashire, a seat I have taken a close interest in having lived only a couple of miles on the wrong side of the boundary of it for much of my life. There has once again been a surge in postal voting requests, mostly in Asian-strong wards, and Labour has picked an Asian candidate this time. The Times reporter allegedly following the postal ballot deliveries spotted some homes with up to 10 (TEN) ballot papers being posted through the letterbox. The Tories locally believe this could cost them the seat, after an unlikely Labour council win last year in a Tory held ward (and it has been Tory all my life as far as I know) that followed a postal ballot surge last year.
I had my doubts about Stephenson holding on anyway, even though I believe Ashcroft had it down as a hold, but this development makes me think it even less hopeful for the Tories.
I want postal ballots on demand scrapped. Alongside our duff electoral system, it is robbing us of democracy.
The audience was superb. Put all three party leaders on their toes. I thought it was excellent.
I've had a look at the polls from each company over the campaign. Interestingly, despite the impression of a slight Tory uptick, there's no evidence that there's been any changes over the campaign. All companies have stayed well within MoE changes of an average score over the campaign - and any apparent "in-step" shifts have been well within parameters of sheer randomness.
For what it's worth, here are what each company appears to be measuring as their baseline average (ie the possible "true" value by their methodology, stripped of random variation; all averages rounded to nearest number):
Phone Polls:
ICM: Con 36; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 10
Ipsos-MORI: Con 34; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 10
Lord Ashcroft: Con 34; Lab 31; LD 9; UKIP 12
ComRes: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 9; UKIP 11
(Average across phone poll averages:
Con 35, Lab 32, LD 9, UKIP 11)
Internet Polls:
YouGov: Con 34; Lab 35; LD 8; UKIP 13
Populus: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 9; UKIP 15
Opinium: Con 35; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 13
Survation: Con 32; Lab 32; LD 9; UKIP 17
Panelbase: Con 32; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 17
TNS: Con 33; Lab 33; LD 8; UKIP 16
(Average across Internet poll averages:
Con 33; Lab 34; LD 8; UKIP 15)
No polls have been outside of the MoE for each companies average. Ergo the "no change" hypothesis cannot be discounted.
So if you look at any new poll (including today's Populus) and it remains pretty close to those figures above for that particular company, it's not really worth getting excited.
That said, of course, real changes within the MoE will always be difficult to pick up.
The chap was indeed right, saying the unsayable. Sadly, I suspect he was a good old Yorkshire Tory too but only managed to nobble his own man...
At lunch we had me and another Brit being asked by two Dutch colleagues what we were talking about (QT performance) and to explain who was on:
Cameron is PM and leader of the sensible nasty party.
Miliband is a cyberman and leader of the communist central planning party.
Clegg is someone but we're not entirely sure who and leader of the gay vegans in sandals party.
After some clarifications is was noted that they don't have any centre right parties in the Netherlands and the choice is left or lefter. The EU is in good hands!
a local candidate claimed, with just two of them out, they had '400 conversations'. They can only do that if they are recording outs as conversations. No other way. You cannot canvass 400 people with two canvassers in one afternoon.
At the last GE Chris Huhne's majority was 3,864, which wasn't the stuff of which impregnable fortresses are made. He was high-profile, and the LibDems were riding high. If there hadn't been a by-election, surely we'd be thinking it was very much in play on May 7th?
Of course there was a by-election, but to secure it the LibDems had to throw not only the kitchen sink at it, but the whole kitchen. UKIP also did a fair bit of sink-throwing and nicked a large chunk of the Tory vote. They were helped by the fact that they had a very good candidate, whereas the Tory candidate was rather controversial.
This time round, UKIP have fallen back (are they even trying here?), and the candidate advantage seems to have gone. The LibDems nationally are, how shall I put this, not expected to have their best ever night on May 7th. The mid-term effect no longer applies. Wouldn't we expect the Conservatives to do better this time round?
Waiting now for the BBC to formally endorse Labour....
Arf.
I guess with Wilders, they have a more solidly defined nasty party so the centre-right-ish party doesn't get a fraction of the nastiness (see Charlotte leslie, below).
Incidentally - "Charlotte Leslie Baywatch" is a google worth doing.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21627665-workers-continue-feel-pinch-what-recovery