politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And before the big Question Time event here’s Marf

LAB at 2% lead with Panelbase. LAB 34% (NC), CON 32% (+1%), UKIP 17% (NC), LD 8% (+1), GRN 4% (NC)
0
This discussion has been closed.
LAB at 2% lead with Panelbase. LAB 34% (NC), CON 32% (+1%), UKIP 17% (NC), LD 8% (+1), GRN 4% (NC)
Comments
Anyway I'm in the market to sell, as while I think 25-1 was value, I don't think it's particularly likely. I'm curious what people who are bullish on the Greens generally would call a fair price.
I'm offering 6.6 at Betfair. I could go a bit higher if anyone's game given the lack of liquidity, but Labour matched at 1.25 suggests someone else is in with a shout, and I can't really see who that is if it isn't the Greens. Surely no way it's a LD hold?!
I'm not going to bother watching it.
If UKIP's chances are 33% in each seat then UKIP getting 3 seats is the most probable outcome, if it's 50% then it's 4 seats, also there is a small chance that UKIP might produce a surprise in a seat that LordA hasn't polled.
Almost all polls show good retention of 2010 Lab voters.
If you voted for them in 2010,you are likely to vote for them now unless you are in Scotland.
Since our quick chat about the Garden Bridge I haven't been on at the same time as you. I can't get to London that evening so will have to pass on the kind offer, even if it would have cost a donation!
Thanks for thinking of me.
Paul Hutcheon @paulhutcheon 26 Apr 2015
Jim Murphy told the Sunday Times today there are around 15,000 members of @scottishlabour – he said 19,000 a few months back
Reporting Scotland, 30 Apr 2015:
Jim Murphy: “The Scottish Labour Party figures are about 20,000 and growing.”
Sally Magnusson: “7,000 of these are social club members, of course.”
Jim: *says stuff about how proud all these imaginary Labour members are*
Sally: “I take it from that that you’re not at a 15-year high.”
Jim: “We are actually. Over 20,000.”
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB ·
Given that both Daves', Cameron and Dimbleby are Bullingdon Club members should one or both declare an interest?
Instead of nit-picking just rejoice, and congratulate our pollsters.
He was also the local branch sec for his union. The Conservative Club had the best facilities and within walking distance of his house. Social clubs are no yardstick for anything.
"Watching C4 news on immigration, you cannot help but feel that there is a large slice of poor, alienated whites that are angry, and for good reason."
Read what happened to them during the Lady Porter/Mrs Thatcher era. They were shipped out of Westminster wholesale to secure a Tory majority. Ask anyone living in Westminster as I was what was going on. From Old Compton St to the Savoy every shop doorway had someone living in a cardboard box.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/sleaze-scandal-strips-dame-shirley-porter-of-her-title-94961.html
PS I did think the expose on Cameron senior was below the belt
Camgasm or Miligasm or a Cleggasm
I'm that sort of chap ....
There is so much more to attack Cameron on, not his family inheritance.
I think Porter's social cleansing marked a low point for the Tories, and that is saying alot
A rather-be-watching-the-other-channelism?
A they're-as-bad-as-each-otherism?
I think you missed my predictions this morning, the Jessop Integrated Summing Mechanism (JISM), which will overtake your ARSE to become the outstanding electorate prediction benchmark.
?
Shocked, I tell you.
But £30bn is more than £1 in £100!
They are there to be tested to within an inch of their majorities.
Absolutely incredible
We don't want 90 minutes of puff and an easy time for the three leaders.
Blair used to be good at this.