politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Thanet S & Hallam polls fail to move the markets & CON
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Thanet S & Hallam polls fail to move the markets & CON a 75% chance to win most seats
One of the big things to remember as we get close is that the final seat totals are not governed by national vote share in some apparently pure manner but on the specific outcomes in 650 separate constituency battles fought under FPTP.
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Senior figures said they would consider voting down a Conservative Queen's Speech to remove David Cameron from office, while one leading Lib Dem demanded a veto over every Tory budget as a price for joining a second coalition.
Cleggie needs help from Tory voters !
It is open season with the Lib Dems. Each to his own.
I also suspect that these LD leaks can only harm the party as they will be more effective at scaring away potential Conservative tactical voters than at reattracting Red Liberals.
BBC rocked by new bias scandal – as TWO-THIRDS of debate audience are left-wing http://shr.gs/KxeydFV
Significant moment? @DanHannanMEP backs proportional representation for the Commons http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2015/04/daniel-hannan-mep-why-proportional-representation-is-now-right-for-the-commons.html …
Only Mark Reckless has ever annoyed me this much.
Betting and reality are often at odds, due to sentiment (for or against a given party).
On the audience: wouldn't 30/30/30/10 (Lab/Con/Other or floating/Lib Dem) be a fairer carving of the cake? [Or 20/20 for Lib Dems and Others?]
33% each means you've got a leftwing majority, a Coalition majority, and you've got corresponding representation (for the polls) for the larger parties but are drastically over-estimating the Lib Dems' support.
That said, I don't think, barring some horrendous moment, it'll be a game-changer.
Although the BBC debate was apparently far worse than the ITV one, due to the audience and Dimbleby's ineffectiveness.
Got to say I think Alexander's 'revelation' today is shoddy.
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:
CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 10 (=)
GRN 8 (=)
Matthew Pennycook@mtpennycook·10 mins10 minutes ago
A week to go and the Tories refuse to put a spokesperson on #r4today to discuss their plans for £12 bn cuts to social security. Says it all.
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·19m19 minutes ago
One week before an election and Tories are refusing to put up anyone to talk about welfare cuts. Says all you need to know
Ferrets in a sack thrown off a sinking ship. (that's enough mixed metaphors-ed)
'Splits as Labour councillors refuse cash donation to MPs' campaigns
LABOUR MPs fighting for their political survival in a traditional party heartland have been denied financial backing by colleagues on the council. In a clear sign of party fractures amid the most intense pressure it has ever faced in Scotland, North Lanarkshire councillors voted against donating anything to their four MPs who many predict will be unseated next week. A proposals by some councillors who work for North Lanarkshire's parliamentarians for a smaller donation was also rejected by colleagues...
...Another member of the Labour administration said: "We've just given the party £20,000 for the privilege of being councillors. There's no appetite to give them any more money. In fact I'm detecting little appetite amongst many councillors to do anything except a few canvassing photos for Facebook. Gordon Brown will do Coatbridge in the coming days. Beyond that, nothings happening there. There's real agitation amongst party members over how things are panning out in the campaign."'
http://tinyurl.com/nxdj6op
So the audience will be in the same proportion as the interviewees? Scandalous!
Philip Cowley@philipjcowley·3 mins3 minutes ago View translation
MORI: C 35, L 30, UKIP 10, LD 8, Grn 8.
Happy birthday MikeK.
Van containing 200,000 ballot papers stolen overnight http://dlvr.it/9cBRs6
If the numbers allow it'll be another coalition or back to opposition.
However several of my Tory neighbours are voting Lib Dem.
16-1 may be value.
Happy birthday, Mike K.
............................................
Happy birthday to the youngster MikeK ....
Perhaps why Ed went to visit Brand?
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB·2 mins2 minutes ago
CON moves from 4% behind to 5% lead amongst those certain to vote with Ipsos-MORI
CON 35 +2
LAB 30 -5
LD 8 +1
UKIP 10=
GRN 8 =
Panelbase and YouGov.
Also this poll implies that the Lord A and ICM polls aren't outliers per se.
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:
CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 10 (=)
GRN 8 (=)
Indeed - that's what I call a proper top rated gold standard poll and fits perfectly with the beautiful sunshine this morning in the Weald of Kent!! Dark thoughts of outliers are banished from my mind!
But there's the thing, on a result like that Con+Lib Dem is probably only on 315ish and short anyway.
Still... anything could happen next week... a few points here and there, and it makes all the difference.
Neil might be going to the poor house at this rate.
Eric Joyce seems to be the first Slabber to exit the denial stage
http://ericjoyce.co.uk/2015/04/scotlands-one-party-state/
"Scots are behaving in the way any nation gripped by nationalism does. Artists, poets and writers are gazing skywards and telling us of ‘a new start'; unionist opposition isn’t just disagreed with but routinely vilified. Few folk are listening to reason, because reason is too painful and these are difficult times."
"Perhaps it’s time for people in Scotland to start wondering if they want to live in a place where it can be seriously projected that a single party might take all of the seats at a general election, and where well-educated and intelligent people would actually celebrate such a state of affairs. Or maybe it’ll take a few years of independence before Scots are prepared to face up to reality.
The general historical trend with nationalism, I’m told, is the latter."
Wonder why Eric did not pipe up about it through all the years of labour hegemony , did he miss being part of that one due to the bevvy.
Fraser Nelson@FraserNelson·3 mins3 minutes ago
Here's the @specator's endorsement of the Tories: http://goo.gl/kUnB2F . Our Scottish edition will shortly endorse the Liberal Democrats.
Here's the @spectator's endorsement of the Tories: http://goo.gl/kUnB2F . Our Scottish edition will shortly endorse the Liberal Democrats
Lol, the Sun have started a trend!
There are still remarkable numbers of undecideds. Not just the polite-to-get-you-off-the-doorstep already committed. But genuinely still don't know.
In Torbay they boil down to two big groups of voters:
1. Those who think Sanders has been a good LibDem MP and would be happy to vote for him again - but REALLY HATE the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband. I mean, really vehemently loathe the guy.
2. Those who think Farage talks the sense they want to hear and would be happy to vote for UKIP - but REALLY HATE the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband. I mean, really vehemently loathe the guy.
(There are also subsets of each of the above for whom replace Ed Miliband with the SNP.)
These are people who say they will vote too. If the Tories can capture half of each sub-set, they will be home and dry.
Lord knows how the pollsters are apportioning these people at the moment. What is clear here is that there are no extra voters wavering about Labour. I don't know how that might be different in say the Midlands. But I suspect the greater pool of don't knows have Conservative as one of their options.
We might see a Survation, but don't quote me on that.
When England kept winning rugby due to Wilkinson's boot, some bleated about altering the points system so fewer were given for penalties. Buggering up the system (which is what would happen) for partisan advantage is not something which I would support.
Media blackout on 319 Lib/Lab/Con misbehaving Cllrs since January. Including sex offenders, racists & frauds. http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/04/29/the-319-misbehaving-councillors-you-wont-have-heard-about-on-the-bbc/ … #UKIP
Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles [above], utter tosh.
If UKIP get 15% and 1 seat then it's their own damned fault for buggering up their strategy. They know the rules of the game. You can get 10 penalties and 57 corners but if you fail to score you can't complain if you lose 1-0.
It's going to be an utter farce, that UKIP might get 15% of the vote, and 1 MP (note before some have an aneurysm, that's not a prediction, just highlighting the potential problems of FPTP that might occur next week)
We need Multi Member STV.
The Labour leader's pledge to redefine Islamophobia as an aggravated crime will be cheered by child sex-grooming gangs in Rotherham and election-stealers in Tower Hamlets
Since Feb74 when they've had a fullish slate of candidates their seats have borne little correlation to their vote share.
In particular look at Feb/Oct 74 against 1997 and 1983 against 2001 and 2005.
Tie up to +/-2: "interesting"
+3/+4: "eye-opening"
+4/+5: "corker"
+6/+7: "narrative changer"
+8 or more: "suggests a fundamental realignment"
+10 "the Falklands War/Gordon Brown smiling has occurred."