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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Thanet S & Hallam polls fail to move the markets & CON a 75% chance to win most seats
One of the big things to remember as we get close is that the final seat totals are not governed by national vote share in some apparently pure manner but on the specific outcomes in 650 separate constituency battles fought under FPTP.
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Can I recommend chapter 2 of the Cabinet Manual, "Elections and government formation", as a lucid 5 page exposition on what happens when GEs fail to return clear majorities? https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60641/cabinet-manual.pdf0
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In The Times Sam Coates and Michael Savage disclose Clegg will struggle to get the formal authorisation needed from the party's MPs, governing bodies and grassroots members if he wants to do another deal with the Tories.
Senior figures said they would consider voting down a Conservative Queen's Speech to remove David Cameron from office, while one leading Lib Dem demanded a veto over every Tory budget as a price for joining a second coalition.0 -
Danny needs help from Labour voters - too late !TheScreamingEagles said:
Danny Alexander's pretty much said he leaked a three year old document to ensure the PM gets embarrassed on Question Time tonight.kle4 said:
Not prepared to forgive him and his just throwing around a lot of talk in order to save themselves without meaning it? It's like, he and Cameron had to have agreed at the debate that Clegg would attack him to some degree. He could be in trouble if he goes too far it seems though.TheScreamingEagles said:Yeah, I'm not voting Lib Dem now, Clegg can go whistle.
In fact, I might even vote Labour.
Thank you to those with the kind words this morning. And people say you cannot write things worthwhile while angry at midnight on the internet!
The comfort from that I can draw is that the Lib Dems are in real trouble in their seats where the Tories are second. Yeovil nailed on Tory gain.
The Lib Dems should be punished for such perfidy.
Plus today's Times has an excellent article about how the Lib Dems kinda won't go into a coalition with the Tories again.
Cleggie needs help from Tory voters !
It is open season with the Lib Dems. Each to his own.0 -
JackW said:
I do chortle when Conservatives go all unnecessary when the yellow peril have the temerity to challenge the Tories on policy issues only seven days before the general election.TheScreamingEagles said:
My friend is suggesting I draw a phallus on the ballot paper next to Nick Clegg's name.JackW said:
Do you really want to become the "Traitorous Pig Dog" of Hallam ....TheScreamingEagles said:Yeah, I'm not voting Lib Dem now, Clegg can go whistle.
In fact, I might even vote Labour.
Well it is kinda a mark indicating a clear preference for one candidate.
Reminds me of Labour .... who before the Coalition dismissed the LibDems as wearisome allies and now the Tories want the LibDems to play nicely as they hoover up their seats.0 -
I think the most likely outcome is LD S&C of the Conservative Party. I just don't see the appetite for a formal coalition with either Labour or the Conservatives.TheScreamingEagles said:In The Times Sam Coates and Michael Savage disclose Clegg will struggle to get the formal authorisation needed from the party's MPs, governing bodies and grassroots members if he wants to do another deal with the Tories.
Senior figures said they would consider voting down a Conservative Queen's Speech to remove David Cameron from office, while one leading Lib Dem demanded a veto over every Tory budget as a price for joining a second coalition.
I also suspect that these LD leaks can only harm the party as they will be more effective at scaring away potential Conservative tactical voters than at reattracting Red Liberals.0 -
Say good morning to the birthday boy: I'm 81 today.0
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Harry Boota UKIP PPC @Harry_Boota 25m25 minutes ago
BBC rocked by new bias scandal – as TWO-THIRDS of debate audience are left-wing http://shr.gs/KxeydFV0 -
Happy Birthday.MikeK said:Say good morning to the birthday boy: I'm 81 today.
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Tim Montgomerie ن @montie 7m7 minutes ago
Significant moment? @DanHannanMEP backs proportional representation for the Commons http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2015/04/daniel-hannan-mep-why-proportional-representation-is-now-right-for-the-commons.html …0 -
Yup. I'm contemplating voting Labour.rcs1000 said:
I think the most likely outcome is LD S&C of the Conservative Party. I just don't see the appetite for a formal coalition with either Labour or the Conservatives.TheScreamingEagles said:In The Times Sam Coates and Michael Savage disclose Clegg will struggle to get the formal authorisation needed from the party's MPs, governing bodies and grassroots members if he wants to do another deal with the Tories.
Senior figures said they would consider voting down a Conservative Queen's Speech to remove David Cameron from office, while one leading Lib Dem demanded a veto over every Tory budget as a price for joining a second coalition.
I also suspect that these LD leaks can only harm the party as they will be more effective at scaring away potential Conservative tactical voters than at reattracting Red Liberals.
Only Mark Reckless has ever annoyed me this much.0 -
Happy birthday, Mr. K.
Betting and reality are often at odds, due to sentiment (for or against a given party).
On the audience: wouldn't 30/30/30/10 (Lab/Con/Other or floating/Lib Dem) be a fairer carving of the cake? [Or 20/20 for Lib Dems and Others?]
33% each means you've got a leftwing majority, a Coalition majority, and you've got corresponding representation (for the polls) for the larger parties but are drastically over-estimating the Lib Dems' support.
That said, I don't think, barring some horrendous moment, it'll be a game-changer.
Although the BBC debate was apparently far worse than the ITV one, due to the audience and Dimbleby's ineffectiveness.
Got to say I think Alexander's 'revelation' today is shoddy.0 -
Matt Singh @MattSingh_
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:
CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 10 (=)
GRN 8 (=)0 -
Free thinking Lab PPC
Matthew Pennycook@mtpennycook·10 mins10 minutes ago
A week to go and the Tories refuse to put a spokesperson on #r4today to discuss their plans for £12 bn cuts to social security. Says it all.
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·19m19 minutes ago
One week before an election and Tories are refusing to put up anyone to talk about welfare cuts. Says all you need to know0 -
Mr. Price, presumably UK-wide rather than London-specific?0
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Fpt.
Ferrets in a sack thrown off a sinking ship. (that's enough mixed metaphors-ed)
'Splits as Labour councillors refuse cash donation to MPs' campaigns
LABOUR MPs fighting for their political survival in a traditional party heartland have been denied financial backing by colleagues on the council. In a clear sign of party fractures amid the most intense pressure it has ever faced in Scotland, North Lanarkshire councillors voted against donating anything to their four MPs who many predict will be unseated next week. A proposals by some councillors who work for North Lanarkshire's parliamentarians for a smaller donation was also rejected by colleagues...
...Another member of the Labour administration said: "We've just given the party £20,000 for the privilege of being councillors. There's no appetite to give them any more money. In fact I'm detecting little appetite amongst many councillors to do anything except a few canvassing photos for Facebook. Gordon Brown will do Coatbridge in the coming days. Beyond that, nothings happening there. There's real agitation amongst party members over how things are panning out in the campaign."'
http://tinyurl.com/nxdj6op0 -
Happy Birthday MikeK!0
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Labour's Russell Brand bounceTissue_Price said:Matt Singh @MattSingh_
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:
CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 10 (=)
GRN 8 (=)
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Oh My Word
Tissue_Price said:Matt Singh @MattSingh_
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:
CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 10 (=)
GRN 8 (=)0 -
Happy Birthday =MK.0
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"Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters will make up half of the audience, while Tory voters will make up 25 per cent. "MikeK said:Harry Boota UKIP PPC @Harry_Boota 25m25 minutes ago
BBC rocked by new bias scandal – as TWO-THIRDS of debate audience are left-wing http://shr.gs/KxeydFV
So the audience will be in the same proportion as the interviewees? Scandalous!0 -
Corker!!!
Philip Cowley@philipjcowley·3 mins3 minutes ago View translation
MORI: C 35, L 30, UKIP 10, LD 8, Grn 8.0 -
Now that's what I call a poll, where's yer ComRes noo?Tissue_Price said:Matt Singh @MattSingh_
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:
CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 10 (=)
GRN 8 (=)
Happy birthday MikeK.
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City A.M. @CityAM 13m13 minutes ago
Van containing 200,000 ballot papers stolen overnight http://dlvr.it/9cBRs60 -
S&C would be a repeat of the calamitous Lib/Lab pact of the late seventies. All the blame and precious little of the power.rcs1000 said:
I think the most likely outcome is LD S&C of the Conservative Party. I just don't see the appetite for a formal coalition with either Labour or the Conservatives.TheScreamingEagles said:In The Times Sam Coates and Michael Savage disclose Clegg will struggle to get the formal authorisation needed from the party's MPs, governing bodies and grassroots members if he wants to do another deal with the Tories.
Senior figures said they would consider voting down a Conservative Queen's Speech to remove David Cameron from office, while one leading Lib Dem demanded a veto over every Tory budget as a price for joining a second coalition.
I also suspect that these LD leaks can only harm the party as they will be more effective at scaring away potential Conservative tactical voters than at reattracting Red Liberals.
If the numbers allow it'll be another coalition or back to opposition.
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In Ashfield unsure where LDs are now close second or not. Zadrozny et al.Pulpstar said:
Ashfield really isn't. It's like a red Truro, Lib Dems in a close 2nd = big price on the incumbent. Who should really be 1-20 or so.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, aye. The seat's likely to stay red, but it is in play.
However several of my Tory neighbours are voting Lib Dem.
16-1 may be value.
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Corking indeed.Tissue_Price said:Matt Singh @MattSingh_
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:
CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 10 (=)
GRN 8 (=)0 -
Outlier alert.Scrapheap_as_was said:Corker!!!
Philip Cowley@philipjcowley·3 mins3 minutes ago View translation
MORI: C 35, L 30, UKIP 10, LD 8, Grn 8.0 -
A corker indeed, for once.Tissue_Price said:Matt Singh @MattSingh_
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:
CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 10 (=)
GRN 8 (=)
Happy birthday, Mike K.
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I think Labour have been screwed by the 10/10 filter that Ipsos Mori use.0
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The Alliance got 14% of the vote in 1979 - that's rather better than the LibDems are likely to do following the coalition.JackW said:
S&C would be a repeat of the calamitous Lib/Lab pact of the late seventies. All the blame and precious little of the power.rcs1000 said:
I think the most likely outcome is LD S&C of the Conservative Party. I just don't see the appetite for a formal coalition with either Labour or the Conservatives.TheScreamingEagles said:In The Times Sam Coates and Michael Savage disclose Clegg will struggle to get the formal authorisation needed from the party's MPs, governing bodies and grassroots members if he wants to do another deal with the Tories.
Senior figures said they would consider voting down a Conservative Queen's Speech to remove David Cameron from office, while one leading Lib Dem demanded a veto over every Tory budget as a price for joining a second coalition.
I also suspect that these LD leaks can only harm the party as they will be more effective at scaring away potential Conservative tactical voters than at reattracting Red Liberals.
If the numbers allow it'll be another coalition or back to opposition.
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IPSOS trending to my ARSE.
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Happy birthday to the youngster MikeK .... 0 -
Nearly a TPD for Labour on my benchmark, creeping in at 30... just missing the wondrous young and virile 20's...
Perhaps why Ed went to visit Brand?0 -
I hear the polling booths use the same filter.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Labour have been screwed by the 10/10 filter that Ipsos Mori use.
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I think you need to vote for Clegg in Sheffield Hallam!TheScreamingEagles said:I think Labour have been screwed by the 10/10 filter that Ipsos Mori use.
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And I think the Ipsos Mori is going to have a very amusing Scottish sub-sample with the Nats even higher than the Scottish specific polls.0
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Apparently they are being given to illegal immigrants so as to skew the election result.MikeK said:City A.M. @CityAM 13m13 minutes ago
Van containing 200,000 ballot papers stolen overnight http://dlvr.it/9cBRs60 -
I can't see the Greens getting 8%.0
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surely. but still lolTheScreamingEagles said:I think Labour have been screwed by the 10/10 filter that Ipsos Mori use.
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*claps*TGOHF said:
I hear the polling booths use the same filter.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Labour have been screwed by the 10/10 filter that Ipsos Mori use.
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Following OGH's principle of looking at the numbers before turnout filtering, do we know what those were in Sheffield Hallam?0
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There was no Alliance in 1979.rcs1000 said:
The Alliance got 14% of the vote in 1979 - that's rather better than the LibDems are likely to do following the coalition.JackW said:
S&C would be a repeat of the calamitous Lib/Lab pact of the late seventies. All the blame and precious little of the power.rcs1000 said:
I think the most likely outcome is LD S&C of the Conservative Party. I just don't see the appetite for a formal coalition with either Labour or the Conservatives.TheScreamingEagles said:In The Times Sam Coates and Michael Savage disclose Clegg will struggle to get the formal authorisation needed from the party's MPs, governing bodies and grassroots members if he wants to do another deal with the Tories.
Senior figures said they would consider voting down a Conservative Queen's Speech to remove David Cameron from office, while one leading Lib Dem demanded a veto over every Tory budget as a price for joining a second coalition.
I also suspect that these LD leaks can only harm the party as they will be more effective at scaring away potential Conservative tactical voters than at reattracting Red Liberals.
If the numbers allow it'll be another coalition or back to opposition.
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EWNBPM0
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Yeah, I just realised that...JackW said:
There was no Alliance in 1979.rcs1000 said:
The Alliance got 14% of the vote in 1979 - that's rather better than the LibDems are likely to do following the coalition.JackW said:
S&C would be a repeat of the calamitous Lib/Lab pact of the late seventies. All the blame and precious little of the power.rcs1000 said:
I think the most likely outcome is LD S&C of the Conservative Party. I just don't see the appetite for a formal coalition with either Labour or the Conservatives.TheScreamingEagles said:In The Times Sam Coates and Michael Savage disclose Clegg will struggle to get the formal authorisation needed from the party's MPs, governing bodies and grassroots members if he wants to do another deal with the Tories.
Senior figures said they would consider voting down a Conservative Queen's Speech to remove David Cameron from office, while one leading Lib Dem demanded a veto over every Tory budget as a price for joining a second coalition.
I also suspect that these LD leaks can only harm the party as they will be more effective at scaring away potential Conservative tactical voters than at reattracting Red Liberals.
If the numbers allow it'll be another coalition or back to opposition.0 -
Unfortunately, yes.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Price, presumably UK-wide rather than London-specific?
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That's what I'm hoping for.TGOHF said:
I hear the polling booths use the same filter.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Labour have been screwed by the 10/10 filter that Ipsos Mori use.
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Call that a swing?
Mike Smithson@MSmithsonPB·2 mins2 minutes ago
CON moves from 4% behind to 5% lead amongst those certain to vote with Ipsos-MORI
CON 35 +2
LAB 30 -5
LD 8 +1
UKIP 10=
GRN 8 =0 -
There should be at least two more polls today.
Panelbase and YouGov.
Also this poll implies that the Lord A and ICM polls aren't outliers per se.0 -
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:
CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 10 (=)
GRN 8 (=)
Indeed - that's what I call a proper top rated gold standard poll and fits perfectly with the beautiful sunshine this morning in the Weald of Kent!! Dark thoughts of outliers are banished from my mind!
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I wonder if the interest in PR by hannan could be something to do with the SNP not being under-represented proportionally for Westminster for the first time in many generations-including ever?0
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Oh, and happy birthday MikeK! 81's not a bad effort, though I thought you were hoping for 102?0
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I struggle to take a poll with the Greens at 8% seriously. I'd be stunned if they poll over 2.5% nationally.Tissue_Price said:Matt Singh @MattSingh_
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:
CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 10 (=)
GRN 8 (=)
But there's the thing, on a result like that Con+Lib Dem is probably only on 315ish and short anyway.0 -
Now thats what I call a poll!!
Still... anything could happen next week... a few points here and there, and it makes all the difference.0 -
where's isam - what do the spuds look like after this baby?0
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Bloody hell, just seen the Greens and the Lib Dems are tied on 8%.
Neil might be going to the poor house at this rate.0 -
What other polls are we expecting today ?0
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Isn't that the second or third incident in the past 24 hours?MikeK said:City A.M. @CityAM 13m13 minutes ago
Van containing 200,000 ballot papers stolen overnight http://dlvr.it/9cBRs6
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Averaging the telephone polls gives Con 35.3%, Lab 31.8%, UKIP 11.2%, Lib Dems 8.5%. With these polls crossover has well and truly taken place.0
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Happy birthday Mike!MikeK said:Say good morning to the birthday boy: I'm 81 today.
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TGOHF said:
Eric Joyce seems to be the first Slabber to exit the denial stage
http://ericjoyce.co.uk/2015/04/scotlands-one-party-state/
"Scots are behaving in the way any nation gripped by nationalism does. Artists, poets and writers are gazing skywards and telling us of ‘a new start'; unionist opposition isn’t just disagreed with but routinely vilified. Few folk are listening to reason, because reason is too painful and these are difficult times."
"Perhaps it’s time for people in Scotland to start wondering if they want to live in a place where it can be seriously projected that a single party might take all of the seats at a general election, and where well-educated and intelligent people would actually celebrate such a state of affairs. Or maybe it’ll take a few years of independence before Scots are prepared to face up to reality.
The general historical trend with nationalism, I’m told, is the latter."
Wonder why Eric did not pipe up about it through all the years of labour hegemony , did he miss being part of that one due to the bevvy.0 -
Mr. Eagles, be interesting to see the PanelBase, given it usually gives nicer results for Labour [as other pollsters do for the Conservatives]. Any ETA?0
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9pc others in IPSOS seems high when it doesn't include Greens does it not?0
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Irony or genuine 'catching'
Fraser Nelson@FraserNelson·3 mins3 minutes ago
Here's the @specator's endorsement of the Tories: http://goo.gl/kUnB2F . Our Scottish edition will shortly endorse the Liberal Democrats.0 -
I think Dan Hannan takes the same view as me, for the third election in a look, it looks like the winning party is going to win with circa 35% of the vote, that makes our current electoral system unsustainable.JPJ2 said:I wonder if the interest in PR by hannan could be something to do with the SNP not being under-represented proportionally for Westminster for the first time in many generations-including ever?
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Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson
Here's the @spectator's endorsement of the Tories: http://goo.gl/kUnB2F . Our Scottish edition will shortly endorse the Liberal Democrats
Lol, the Sun have started a trend!0 -
IIRC, an outlier happens about 1:20 polls. There's a lot of them accordingly to some here.
Indeed - that's what I call a proper top rated gold standard poll and fits perfectly with the beautiful sunshine this morning in the Weald of Kent!! Dark thoughts of outliers are banished from my mind!peterbuss said:
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:
CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 10 (=)
GRN 8 (=)
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Scotland has about 9% of the population. Just saying.Bob__Sykes said:9pc others in IPSOS seems high when it doesn't include Greens does it not?
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Poor poll for Labour. Agreed about the 8% Green share - most of that will unwind but where will it go?asjohnstone said:
I struggle to take a poll with the Greens at 8% seriously. I'd be stunned if they poll over 2.5% nationally.Tissue_Price said:Matt Singh @MattSingh_
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:
CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 10 (=)
GRN 8 (=)
But there's the thing, on a result like that Con+Lib Dem is probably only on 315ish and short anyway.0 -
Big effort in Torbay yesterday. A battle-bus of 50 sturdy folks who had previously been to Yeovil (close, but probably just short of dismissing Laws - although his expenses is a big issue on the doorstep) and Cheltenham (VERY much in play). Also heard that Gloucester is safe blue.
There are still remarkable numbers of undecideds. Not just the polite-to-get-you-off-the-doorstep already committed. But genuinely still don't know.
In Torbay they boil down to two big groups of voters:
1. Those who think Sanders has been a good LibDem MP and would be happy to vote for him again - but REALLY HATE the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband. I mean, really vehemently loathe the guy.
2. Those who think Farage talks the sense they want to hear and would be happy to vote for UKIP - but REALLY HATE the idea of Prime Minister Ed Miliband. I mean, really vehemently loathe the guy.
(There are also subsets of each of the above for whom replace Ed Miliband with the SNP.)
These are people who say they will vote too. If the Tories can capture half of each sub-set, they will be home and dry.
Lord knows how the pollsters are apportioning these people at the moment. What is clear here is that there are no extra voters wavering about Labour. I don't know how that might be different in say the Midlands. But I suspect the greater pool of don't knows have Conservative as one of their options.
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Panelbase at 2.30pm ish and YouGov at 10.30pm are the two polls we're getting for certain.asjohnstone said:What other polls are we expecting today ?
We might see a Survation, but don't quote me on that.0 -
Good ol' Ipsos Mori coming into line0
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I expect a lot of them will just be non-voters.murali_s said:
Poor poll for Labour. Agreed about the 8% Green share - most of that will unwind but where will it go?asjohnstone said:
I struggle to take a poll with the Greens at 8% seriously. I'd be stunned if they poll over 2.5% nationally.Tissue_Price said:Matt Singh @MattSingh_
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:
CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 10 (=)
GRN 8 (=)
But there's the thing, on a result like that Con+Lib Dem is probably only on 315ish and short anyway.
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Mr. Eagles, why?
When England kept winning rugby due to Wilkinson's boot, some bleated about altering the points system so fewer were given for penalties. Buggering up the system (which is what would happen) for partisan advantage is not something which I would support.0 -
The Lib Dems? What the...?Tissue_Price said:Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson
Here's the @spectator's endorsement of the Tories: http://goo.gl/kUnB2F . Our Scottish edition will shortly endorse the Liberal Democrats
Lol, the Sun have started a trend!0 -
Worth noting that four polls over the past 7 days put Labour at or below their 2010 vote share.0
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Possible. But you have to imho read a bit between the lines in his article. What he really loves about PR and STV in particular is that he feels it would keep MPs on their toes and more accountable to their local voters.JPJ2 said:I wonder if the interest in PR by hannan could be something to do with the SNP not being under-represented proportionally for Westminster for the first time in many generations-including ever?
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Lee Waters @LeeWatersUKIP · 2h 2 hours ago
Media blackout on 319 Lib/Lab/Con misbehaving Cllrs since January. Including sex offenders, racists & frauds. http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/04/29/the-319-misbehaving-councillors-you-wont-have-heard-about-on-the-bbc/ … #UKIP0 -
Given that lab are down 5 and others are only up 3 I can't see beyond SNP 89% in the subsam.TheScreamingEagles said:And I think the Ipsos Mori is going to have a very amusing Scottish sub-sample with the Nats even higher than the Scottish specific polls.
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Half of it will probably stay at home and eat a fantastic organic yoghurt, about a quarter will actually vote Green, last quarter will tactically support whoever can beat the tories locally.murali_s said:
Poor poll for Labour. Agreed about the 8% Green share - most of that will unwind but where will it go?asjohnstone said:
I struggle to take a poll with the Greens at 8% seriously. I'd be stunned if they poll over 2.5% nationally.Tissue_Price said:Matt Singh @MattSingh_
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:
CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 10 (=)
GRN 8 (=)
But there's the thing, on a result like that Con+Lib Dem is probably only on 315ish and short anyway.0 -
Mr. Millsy, post-modern satire by the Spectator?
Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles [above], utter tosh.
If UKIP get 15% and 1 seat then it's their own damned fault for buggering up their strategy. They know the rules of the game. You can get 10 penalties and 57 corners but if you fail to score you can't complain if you lose 1-0.0 -
First Past the Post has had its day.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, why?
When England kept winning rugby due to Wilkinson's boot, some bleated about altering the points system so fewer were given for penalties. Buggering up the system (which is what would happen) for partisan advantage is not something which I would support.
It's going to be an utter farce, that UKIP might get 15% of the vote, and 1 MP (note before some have an aneurysm, that's not a prediction, just highlighting the potential problems of FPTP that might occur next week)
We need Multi Member STV.0 -
But saying Certain To Vote? I'd go with changing to home party as more likely.Slackbladder said:
I expect a lot of them will just be non-voters.murali_s said:
Poor poll for Labour. Agreed about the 8% Green share - most of that will unwind but where will it go?asjohnstone said:
I struggle to take a poll with the Greens at 8% seriously. I'd be stunned if they poll over 2.5% nationally.Tissue_Price said:Matt Singh @MattSingh_
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:
CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 10 (=)
GRN 8 (=)
But there's the thing, on a result like that Con+Lib Dem is probably only on 315ish and short anyway.0 -
This is a joke surely? They don't do a Scottish edition do they?Millsy said:
The Lib Dems? What the...?Tissue_Price said:Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson
Here's the @spectator's endorsement of the Tories: http://goo.gl/kUnB2F . Our Scottish edition will shortly endorse the Liberal Democrats
Lol, the Sun have started a trend!0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11570745/The-price-that-Ed-Miliband-is-prepared-to-pay-to-win-the-Muslim-vote.html
The Labour leader's pledge to redefine Islamophobia as an aggravated crime will be cheered by child sex-grooming gangs in Rotherham and election-stealers in Tower Hamlets0 -
For the Libs/LibDems you need delve deeper than simple vote share and UNS.rcs1000 said:
Yeah, I just realised that...JackW said:
There was no Alliance in 1979.rcs1000 said:
The Alliance got 14% of the vote in 1979 - that's rather better than the LibDems are likely to do following the coalition.JackW said:
S&C would be a repeat of the calamitous Lib/Lab pact of the late seventies. All the blame and precious little of the power.rcs1000 said:
I think the most likely outcome is LD S&C of the Conservative Party. I just don't see the appetite for a formal coalition with either Labour or the Conservatives.TheScreamingEagles said:In The Times Sam Coates and Michael Savage disclose Clegg will struggle to get the formal authorisation needed from the party's MPs, governing bodies and grassroots members if he wants to do another deal with the Tories.
Senior figures said they would consider voting down a Conservative Queen's Speech to remove David Cameron from office, while one leading Lib Dem demanded a veto over every Tory budget as a price for joining a second coalition.
I also suspect that these LD leaks can only harm the party as they will be more effective at scaring away potential Conservative tactical voters than at reattracting Red Liberals.
If the numbers allow it'll be another coalition or back to opposition.
Since Feb74 when they've had a fullish slate of candidates their seats have borne little correlation to their vote share.
In particular look at Feb/Oct 74 against 1997 and 1983 against 2001 and 2005.
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The official poll trailer classification is as per below. Tom Newton-Dunn please take note.
Tie up to +/-2: "interesting"
+3/+4: "eye-opening"
+4/+5: "corker"
+6/+7: "narrative changer"
+8 or more: "suggests a fundamental realignment"0 -
I think you're being pessimistic on the SNP share of the vote in the sub sample.Alistair said:
Given that lab are down 5 and others are only up 3 I can't see beyond SNP 89% in the subsam.TheScreamingEagles said:And I think the Ipsos Mori is going to have a very amusing Scottish sub-sample with the Nats even higher than the Scottish specific polls.
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Mr. Price, also:
+10 "the Falklands War/Gordon Brown smiling has occurred."0 -
He's joking, I think. Might be wrong but I don't think there is a separate Scottish edition of the Spectator.Millsy said:
The Lib Dems? What the...?Tissue_Price said:Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson
Here's the @spectator's endorsement of the Tories: http://goo.gl/kUnB2F . Our Scottish edition will shortly endorse the Liberal Democrats
Lol, the Sun have started a trend!
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What's "Day the polls turned" ?
Tissue_Price said:The official poll trailer classification is as per below. Tom Newton-Dunn please take note.
Tie up to +/-2: "interesting"
+3/+4: "eye-opening"
+4/+5: "corker"
+6/+7: "narrative changer"
+8 or more: "suggests a fundamental realignment"0 -
That's just Lab +1.Plato said:What's "Day the polls turned" ?
Tissue_Price said:The official poll trailer classification is as per below. Tom Newton-Dunn please take note.
Tie up to +/-2: "interesting"
+3/+4: "eye-opening"
+4/+5: "corker"
+6/+7: "narrative changer"
+8 or more: "suggests a fundamental realignment"0 -
acf2310 said:
That's just Lab +1.Plato said:What's "Day the polls turned" ?
Tissue_Price said:The official poll trailer classification is as per below. Tom Newton-Dunn please take note.
Tie up to +/-2: "interesting"
+3/+4: "eye-opening"
+4/+5: "corker"
+6/+7: "narrative changer"
+8 or more: "suggests a fundamental realignment"0 -
The green vote will be fascinating to watch on the night. A goodly chunk is young - they polled 50% in 18-24 age group in one of the polls yesterday. Will they vote? Are they really fired up and registered? The huge vote reg surge suggests they might be. Another reason to stay up all night on ThursdaySlackbladder said:
I expect a lot of them will just be non-voters.murali_s said:
Poor poll for Labour. Agreed about the 8% Green share - most of that will unwind but where will it go?asjohnstone said:
I struggle to take a poll with the Greens at 8% seriously. I'd be stunned if they poll over 2.5% nationally.Tissue_Price said:Matt Singh @MattSingh_
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:
CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 10 (=)
GRN 8 (=)
But there's the thing, on a result like that Con+Lib Dem is probably only on 315ish and short anyway.0 -
I haven't managed to stay awake the WHOLE night since 1997 - this time I've stocked up with Red Bull to make sure I don't nod off between 2am-5am and miss all the initial fun.rottenborough said:
The green vote will be fascinating to watch on the night. A goodly chunk is young - they polled 50% in 18-24 age group in one of the polls yesterday. Will they vote? Are they really fired up and registered? The huge vote reg surge suggests they might be. Another reason to stay up all night on ThursdaySlackbladder said:
I expect a lot of them will just be non-voters.murali_s said:
Poor poll for Labour. Agreed about the 8% Green share - most of that will unwind but where will it go?asjohnstone said:
I struggle to take a poll with the Greens at 8% seriously. I'd be stunned if they poll over 2.5% nationally.Tissue_Price said:Matt Singh @MattSingh_
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:
CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
LIB 8 (+1)
UKIP 10 (=)
GRN 8 (=)
But there's the thing, on a result like that Con+Lib Dem is probably only on 315ish and short anyway.0 -
I'd love to see a Wales only poll from ICM.0
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That was clever of them, given that they didn't exist before 1982rcs1000 said:
The Alliance got 14% of the vote in 1979 - that's rather better than the LibDems are likely to do following the coalition.JackW said:
S&C would be a repeat of the calamitous Lib/Lab pact of the late seventies. All the blame and precious little of the power.rcs1000 said:
I think the most likely outcome is LD S&C of the Conservative Party. I just don't see the appetite for a formal coalition with either Labour or the Conservatives.TheScreamingEagles said:In The Times Sam Coates and Michael Savage disclose Clegg will struggle to get the formal authorisation needed from the party's MPs, governing bodies and grassroots members if he wants to do another deal with the Tories.
Senior figures said they would consider voting down a Conservative Queen's Speech to remove David Cameron from office, while one leading Lib Dem demanded a veto over every Tory budget as a price for joining a second coalition.
I also suspect that these LD leaks can only harm the party as they will be more effective at scaring away potential Conservative tactical voters than at reattracting Red Liberals.
If the numbers allow it'll be another coalition or back to opposition.
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