I'll never vote for the muppets of Labour, I think the Lib Dems are an utterly directionless irrelevance, and am half tempted by UKIP - though I don't think calling the SNP racist is particularly helpful. The Salmond posters of the Conservative campaign are a disgrace and noone else is standing in my constituency.
I agree, Ukip should have described the SNP as xenophobic.
With the SNP even more leftie than the Labour Party; on a par with the Communist Party in many respects. Will the next government fortify our border with Scotland? England will need to stop these ravaging Picts from infesting the North.
The Tories are more leftie than labour nowadays, a centre left SNP government will do well with only London right wing parties as competition.
Yes, there is a massive gap in the market for a right wing Scottish party. Either a renamed Tory breakaway (if the Tories are sensible) or a brand new party. Even a well-disguised UKIP offshoot would work if it was done very well and certain people were kept away from it *cough*David Coburn*cough*.
As NickPalmer said on the previous thread, the result that would come from such a thing makes a mockery of our electoral system. On top of this, you could have Labour win more seats with the Conservatives getting more votes, and UKIP having a fraction of the seats of the Lib Dems despite getting double the vote. Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system.
Suddenly when the London establishment are not winning the cry is "it's not fair". They have abused the system for hundreds of years and resisted change but suddenly it is an issue, they will cling on as long as possible.
I have been active in politics for twenty years, often bitterly arguing with the London establishment. You can not call someone "London establishment" just because they disagree with you.
Lefties..do not worry..Eds interview with Brand will have all those errant Scots flooding back to Labour..Crosby must be pissing himself laughing
The way Labour are trying to ignore Scotland beggars belief. They still have a sense of entitlement to those seats and BJOwls is being delusional about the consequences.
Love her or loathe her, Nicola Sturgeon has shot UKIPs fox, destroyed the Scottish Labour Party and set the tone for the entire election. Astonishing politician, albeit she has taken advantage of the badly bungled devolution and then indyref campaigns from the unionists.
With the SNP even more leftie than the Labour Party; on a par with the Communist Party in many respects. Will the next government fortify our border with Scotland? England will need to stop these ravaging Picts from infesting the North.
The Tories are more leftie than labour nowadays, a centre left SNP government will do well with only London right wing parties as competition.
Yes, there is a massive gap in the market for a right wing Scottish party. Either a renamed Tory breakaway (if the Tories are sensible) or a brand new party. Even a well-disguised UKIP offshoot would work if it was done very well and certain people were kept away from it *cough*David Coburn*cough*.
Tories had a chance but the cronies running the sub regional party made sure Murdo got voted down. He may not have been best leader ever but they should have gone with him and his idea and changed leader later if necessary. A real right wing Scottish party would have done a lot better in this election , given the SNP are sucking up all the left , Lib Dems are getting torched etc , they would have been sitting pretty for any protest voters rather than making around their core vote.
Lefties..do not worry..Eds interview with Brand will have all those errant Scots flooding back to Labour..Crosby must be pissing himself laughing
The way Labour are trying to ignore Scotland beggars belief. They still have a sense of entitlement to those seats and BJOwls is being delusional about the consequences.
Reminds me of the Lab approach to the LDs before 2010..
Mr. Isam, in the 18 years since 1997, we've had 13 years of Scottish Chancellors and 3 years of Scottish Prime Ministers (if we count Blair as English).
Given Scotland has 8% of the population, that's hardly the epitome of anti-democratic oppression.
Token unionist scots in key jobs doesn't alter the fact that scots were are ruled by people they didn't vote for
The Scots voted for a Blair-led New Labour party. They got government from a Blair-led New Labour party. They were ruled by exactly the people they voted for.
Fair enough, though then the choice was that or Major... Now they have rumbled if they want a big voice in the union the vote no and vote SNP... Who can argue it works?
Lefties..do not worry..Eds interview with Brand will have all those errant Scots flooding back to Labour..Crosby must be pissing himself laughing
The way Labour are trying to ignore Scotland beggars belief. They still have a sense of entitlement to those seats and BJOwls is being delusional about the consequences.
I think SeanT was the first on here to mention what the decimation of Scottish Labour would mean for the heart and soul of the UK party. I thought he was right, but it was unlikely to happen. I still think he's right, and now that it probably will happen.
It's not quite an existential crisis for Labour, but it's bad. *If* it happens, and the SNP remains popular, then the Labour party in 2020 will be a different beast. I just cannot tell which way it'll swing.
Someone has backed Farage at 55-1 for PM after the GE on Betfair. If there are any hopeful Kippers out there, please take the cash down to odds of 110.
Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.
They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..
THe swing is proportional to the Yes vote, in straight SNP-Lab shoot outs the Yes vote is high allowing the SNP to overhaul massive majorities. In areas where the YES vote is low there is a lower swing but they are multiway marginals and 35% percent is enough to get over the line.
The SNP vote efficiency basically seems crazy good.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
That would leave the Con/LD coalition with a majority of 25 and that's before any losses for the Conservatives and Lib Dems in England and Wales. The Lib Dems need to do their bit and hold some seats in Scotland for the coalition to continue.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
And there are about 2 million pencil waverers in England and Wales who will be the deciding factor in this - whether they are prepared for that or not. This election has become de facto an extension of indyref into the whole UK
An election is not a referendum. But the warped devolution settlement foisted on us by Labour is certainly coming home to roost. EVEL will become a necessity and really should colour the voting in England - as should the fear of far left hegemony from a Scottish party that need not fear the electoral consequences. What is fascinating (if thats the right word) is that the SNP are rising as the logic for Scottish independence declines. The promise of a free lunch north of the border is obviously very alluring.
Love her or loathe her, Nicola Sturgeon has shot UKIPs fox, destroyed the Scottish Labour Party and set the tone for the entire election. Astonishing politician, albeit she has taken advantage of the badly bungled devolution and then indyref campaigns from the unionists.
I do think the SNP are quite a dangerous and quite a xenephonic party however you can't help admire the way Sturgeon has performed in this campaign and it is rather inspiring to see people in safe establishment party seats changing parties in sufficient numbers to make a difference. From a betting point of view they will no doubt win plenty of money for a lot of us and they've also (more so than UKIP) made this the most interesting election in recent memory. So ignoring the policies they get a thumbs up from me!
I hope Carmichael loses his seat, his obstinence cost PBers money at the back end of last year. still odds against I reckon, but I live in hope.
And leaking that memo caused me to close out my SNP spin position.
The tosser
The normally unruffled Nabavi was in a bit of a spin over the cackhanded Ziniov attempt, if Nabavi worries, I worry.
I closed out Coatbridge and reopened the profit onto the SNP once it blew over.
I also blame Antifrank.
He thought about it on that thread.
I think about lots of things. Mostly rubbish, to be honest.
I still have an open buy position on the SNP at 20.5 (and for full disclosure, I have recently sold Labour at 8 on the inflammatorily named Scottish regional market). That price on Scottish Labour is still available, somewhat to my surprise given the recent slew of polls.
I wonder who came up with that name.
I'll not get involved in any more Scottish markets.
FTP. PoliticsHome @politicshome 2h2 hours ago 65% of new households since 1997 were headed by a foreign national, MigrationWatch report says http://polho.me/1QI5jhL
Says it all really. The truth is even more troublesome for the UK than even UKIP darkest's forecasts.
Although the number peaked between 2005 and 2009 at 89% (!). Assuming constant household formation (which is obviously a ridiculous assumption), that means that between 2009 and 2014, just 31% of were headed by a foreign national.
Of course, what does "headed" mean? Does it mean that the "Dad" was a foreign national? Is it a net number - or gross?
You can twist the figures how you like, but it won't invalidate the the truth of those statistics, @rcs1000. 65% left just 35% of new households for the indigenous population since 1997.
Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.
They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..
No, they'll do worse than UNS in Edinburgh. But lower swings are needed there. They'll outperform in Glasgow and the west where the 50+% majorities need to be toppled. They also do worse in LD/Con seats - hence Berwickshire and DCT having lower swings. But lower swings are needed here too.
The one constituency non UNS makes tougher for the SNP is Orkney.
Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.
They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..
THe swing is proportional to the Yes vote, in straight SNP-Lab shoot outs the Yes vote is high allowing the SNP to overhaul massive majorities. In areas where the YES vote is low there is a lower swing but they are multiway marginals and 35% percent is enough to get over the line.
The SNP vote efficiency basically seems crazy good.
So they will get exactly 54% in each seat ? Dearie me..
My final (long) blogpost before GE2015. Rehearsing out my thoughts on GE2010, minor party positions for GE2015, potential seat bands, and potential next government compositions:
As NickPalmer said on the previous thread, the result that would come from such a thing makes a mockery of our electoral system. On top of this, you could have Labour win more seats with the Conservatives getting more votes, and UKIP having a fraction of the seats of the Lib Dems despite getting double the vote. Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system.
Suddenly when the London establishment are not winning the cry is "it's not fair". They have abused the system for hundreds of years and resisted change but suddenly it is an issue, they will cling on as long as possible.
I have been active in politics for twenty years, often bitterly arguing with the London establishment. You can not call someone "London establishment" just because they disagree with you.
When they decide evrything that happens in Scotland and there is no way to change it , of course you can. They rightly have policies for England ( especially the south ) given they are 80%+ of the votes these cretins crave. When policies that are detrimental to Scotland are constantly promoted , at some point people will say enough. Social media now means we see the lies for what they are immediately , they cannot kid people like they have done in past with their tame media etc. Pray tell what you have achieved against them in your 20+ years.
Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.
They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..
No, they'll do worse than UNS in Edinburgh. But lower swings are needed there. They'll outperform in Glasgow and the west where the 50+% majorities need to be toppled. They also do worse in LD/Con seats - hence Berwickshire and DCT having lower swings.
How will they do in the five straight SNP/Con seats? That's an interesting dynamic
Love her or loathe her, Nicola Sturgeon has shot UKIPs fox, destroyed the Scottish Labour Party and set the tone for the entire election. Astonishing politician, albeit she has taken advantage of the badly bungled devolution and then indyref campaigns from the unionists.
I do think the SNP are quite a dangerous and quite a xenephonic party however you can't help admire the way Sturgeon has performed in this campaign and it is rather inspiring to see people in safe establishment party seats changing parties in sufficient numbers to make a difference. From a betting point of view they will no doubt win plenty of money for a lot of us and they've also (more so than UKIP) made this the most interesting election in recent memory. So ignoring the policies they get a thumbs up from me!
Sturgeon has out Faraged Farage. Kippers would do well to take notes - their campaign relative to the Nats has been an abject failure.
Mr. Isam, in the 18 years since 1997, we've had 13 years of Scottish Chancellors and 3 years of Scottish Prime Ministers (if we count Blair as English).
Given Scotland has 8% of the population, that's hardly the epitome of anti-democratic oppression.
Token unionist scots in key jobs doesn't alter the fact that scots were are ruled by people they didn't vote for
The Scots voted for a Blair-led New Labour party. They got government from a Blair-led New Labour party. They were ruled by exactly the people they voted for.
Fair enough, though then the choice was that or Major... Now they have rumbled if they want a big voice in the union the vote no and vote SNP... Who can argue it works?
They can legitimately vote for whoever they want. But it is the responsibility of the other parties not to be blackmailed by a party that wishes to destroy the UK. The other parties should get together to pass English votes for English laws and form a government that can pass bills in England. There is no reason that England should lack a government because the Scots are playing silly buggers.
Mr. Isam, in the 18 years since 1997, we've had 13 years of Scottish Chancellors and 3 years of Scottish Prime Ministers (if we count Blair as English).
Given Scotland has 8% of the population, that's hardly the epitome of anti-democratic oppression.
Token unionist scots in key jobs doesn't alter the fact that scots were are ruled by people they didn't vote for
The Scots voted for a Blair-led New Labour party. They got government from a Blair-led New Labour party. They were ruled by exactly the people they voted for.
Correct. isam's comments are silly. Blair went to a Scottish school more posh than Eton. Labour in 1997 was riddled with Scots they held a mass of Scottish seats and they thrust devolution on us.
Lefties..do not worry..Eds interview with Brand will have all those errant Scots flooding back to Labour..Crosby must be pissing himself laughing
The way Labour are trying to ignore Scotland beggars belief. They still have a sense of entitlement to those seats and BJOwls is being delusional about the consequences.
I think SeanT was the first on here to mention what the decimation of Scottish Labour would mean for the heart and soul of the UK party. I thought he was right, but it was unlikely to happen. I still think he's right, and now that it probably will happen.
It's not quite an existential crisis for Labour, but it's bad. *If* it happens, and the SNP remains popular, then the Labour party in 2020 will be a different beast. I just cannot tell which way it'll swing.
Decimation is losing a tenth , it does not begin to describe what is happening.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
That would leave the Con/LD coalition with a majority of 25 and that's before any losses for the Conservatives and Lib Dems in England and Wales. The Lib Dems need to do their bit and hold some seats in Scotland for the coalition to continue.
It's possible (albeit unlikely) that they hold three: BR&S (60% chance of it having a coalition MP), East Dunbartonshire (15% chance of tactical unionist voting getting Jo Swinson over the line), and Orkney & Shetland (60% chance of Mr Carmichael hanging on given v. low 'Out' vote).
Mr. Royale, in the prediction games so far my guesses have been close to your prediction. I am wondering if the SNP and Conservatives might do a little better.
Mr. JEO, indeed.
Edited extra bit: although the real answer is an English Parliament.
My final (long) blogpost before GE2015. Rehearsing out my thoughts on GE2010, minor party positions for GE2015, potential seat bands, and potential next government compositions:
An excellent piece. Scan reading it I think UKIP coalition can be ruled out. Labour abstaining the QS motion is a possibility though, which perhaps means there can be a Conservative Gov't on 285 seats or so - not necessarily lead by Dave...
UKIP are on 11-14% ish yet the Tories are within MOE of their 2010 figures.
The Lib Dems in the UK are in single figures ish having "mislaid" two thirds of their 2010 vote.
The SNP are challenging Pyongyang for voting intention stats (I exaggerate but you know what I mean). Yet Plaid are nowhere.
Labour are probably on for their third worst UK vote share since about 1918 and today SLAB are looking over their shoulders to keep ahead of SCONS (ffs!)
Yet:
Cameron remains favourite to be ejected from No 10 (just).
UKIP may conceivably end up with one seat only.
The Libs may still hold the balance of power, just like now.
Ed remains favourite (just) to be PM (even if the weakest since 1923), even though his vote share is possibly worse than Kinnock in 87 AND he'll have somewhat absentmindedly lost Scotland - possibly totally.
Odds on that lot in 2010? Funny old world.
I think electoral reform will be on the agenda next Friday.
Love her or loathe her, Nicola Sturgeon has shot UKIPs fox, destroyed the Scottish Labour Party and set the tone for the entire election. Astonishing politician, albeit she has taken advantage of the badly bungled devolution and then indyref campaigns from the unionists.
I do think the SNP are quite a dangerous and quite a xenephonic party however you can't help admire the way Sturgeon has performed in this campaign and it is rather inspiring to see people in safe establishment party seats changing parties in sufficient numbers to make a difference. From a betting point of view they will no doubt win plenty of money for a lot of us and they've also (more so than UKIP) made this the most interesting election in recent memory. So ignoring the policies they get a thumbs up from me!
Sturgeon has out Faraged Farage. Kippers would do well to take notes - their campaign relative to the Nats has been an abject failure.
Surely every campaign relative to the Nats has been a failure? UKIP have done well not to be squeezed in the campaign, problem was the months before the campaign started when they were getting zero publicity. I suppose a bad campaign would have been sub 10% polling and just Carswell rather than the expected 13% and a handful of seats. Expectations without doubt were too high from some party supporters though.
Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.
They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..
THe swing is proportional to the Yes vote, in straight SNP-Lab shoot outs the Yes vote is high allowing the SNP to overhaul massive majorities. In areas where the YES vote is low there is a lower swing but they are multiway marginals and 35% percent is enough to get over the line.
The SNP vote efficiency basically seems crazy good.
So they will get exactly 54% in each seat ? Dearie me..
Noooooo?
I'm finding it hard to work out why people are having a problem with the concept. The SNP vote is highly correlated with the Yes vote. Areas that got a higher Yes vote will have a higher SNP score than areas with a low Yes vote.
I'm not saying they will all get the same vote percentage - how could you get that from what I said? I explicitly said they will get over the line with 35% in some constituencies in my previous post.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
Bold. The 'Death and Glory' option. 5 years in office, followed by Termination in 2020.
Maybe.
Labour potentially reaching the end as the dominant left of centre party. I would vote SNP in Scotland, PC in Wales and for an English Socialist party under PR
The Tories likely to move to the right in opposition too so
Maybe not.
Priority number one (for next week) is getting the keys to Downing Steet back from the right.
Should result in Chaos in the Tory party and the removal of Clegg.
Not a bad weeks work if the Crap one pulls that off
Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.
They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..
No, they'll do worse than UNS in Edinburgh. But lower swings are needed there. They'll outperform in Glasgow and the west where the 50+% majorities need to be toppled. They also do worse in LD/Con seats - hence Berwickshire and DCT having lower swings.
How will they do in the five straight SNP/Con seats? That's an interesting dynamic
The SNP seats are easy holds. Perth North Perthshire is not a 1-1000 shot though.
It is quite possible for Tories to do much better than 17% of the vote in Scotland. Surely we have all learned that there are no more "certainties" in Scottish politics.
They just need to have a good leader (tick), distance themselves from London (tbc), and Hoover up the unionist, centrist, or rightwing vote - e.g. lib Dems fleeing their dead party.
20% 25%? Why not. Scotland is now entirely imponderable.
More to the point Tories simply will not vote tactically for Labour, whereas I suspect a committed unionist who wasn't an out-and-out commie might well hold his nose and vote Tory. The polls show Labour narrowly ahead of the Tories in Scotland - me might, sensationally, see the Tories getting more votes and MPs than SLAB!
Love her or loathe her, Nicola Sturgeon has shot UKIPs fox, destroyed the Scottish Labour Party and set the tone for the entire election. Astonishing politician, albeit she has taken advantage of the badly bungled devolution and then indyref campaigns from the unionists.
I do think the SNP are quite a dangerous and quite a xenephonic party however you can't help admire the way Sturgeon has performed in this campaign and it is rather inspiring to see people in safe establishment party seats changing parties in sufficient numbers to make a difference. From a betting point of view they will no doubt win plenty of money for a lot of us and they've also (more so than UKIP) made this the most interesting election in recent memory. So ignoring the policies they get a thumbs up from me!
Speaking from a knowledgeable point of view no doubt , or out of your erse more like. Explain your xenophobic if you can, or did you really mean they were musical.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
That would leave the Con/LD coalition with a majority of 25 and that's before any losses for the Conservatives and Lib Dems in England and Wales. The Lib Dems need to do their bit and hold some seats in Scotland for the coalition to continue.
It's possible (albeit unlikely) that they hold three: BR&S (60% chance of it having a coalition MP), East Dunbartonshire (15% chance of tactical unionist voting getting Jo Swinson over the line), and Orkney & Shetland (60% chance of Mr Carmichael hanging on given v. low 'Out' vote).
DCT and Dumfries and Galloway are respectively 50 and about 15% Tory shots also for coalition hang ons - there are enough unionists in both to get them over the line if they can galvanise the anti-SNP voters
As NickPalmer said on the previous thread, the result that would come from such a thing makes a mockery of our electoral system. On top of this, you could have Labour win more seats with the Conservatives getting more votes, and UKIP having a fraction of the seats of the Lib Dems despite getting double the vote. Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system.
In 1983 the Alliance got 25% of the vote against 27% for Labour, and got fewer than one tenth the number of seats. The voting system did not change. There were no riots.
In 1951, the Labour Party got more votes than the Conservatives, yet they won the election.
I don't buy the masses rising up in disgust at the election result.
I agree. But my post was more parochial and related to internal Labour party attitudes. I think that Labour opposition to PR (which I think was marked among some Scottish MPs) will soften if there's a Scottish wipeout. The SNP aren't actually getting much more than the independence vote of 45%, but FPTP looks likely to kill pretty much everyone else.
I've supported PR all my life (Danish upbringing and all that). Ideally, people would support whatever they think is the best system, regardless of party interest. But in the real world, it's sometimes perceived as relevant.
Love her or loathe her, Nicola Sturgeon has shot UKIPs fox, destroyed the Scottish Labour Party and set the tone for the entire election. Astonishing politician, albeit she has taken advantage of the badly bungled devolution and then indyref campaigns from the unionists.
I do think the SNP are quite a dangerous and quite a xenephonic party however you can't help admire the way Sturgeon has performed in this campaign and it is rather inspiring to see people in safe establishment party seats changing parties in sufficient numbers to make a difference. From a betting point of view they will no doubt win plenty of money for a lot of us and they've also (more so than UKIP) made this the most interesting election in recent memory. So ignoring the policies they get a thumbs up from me!
Sturgeon has out Faraged Farage. Kippers would do well to take notes - their campaign relative to the Nats has been an abject failure.
The SNP had a three month PPB last autumn which energised many scots to vote for them knowing they could stay Im the union with unprecedented pro Scottish representation in Westminster, hardly comparable
Would be comparable to a eu ref six months before a GE.. You reckon anti EU parties would fare better or worse after a narrow defeat?
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
And there are about 2 million pencil waverers in England and Wales who will be the deciding factor in this - whether they are prepared for that or not. This election has become de facto an extension of indyref into the whole UK
An election is not a referendum. But the warped devolution settlement foisted on us by Labour is certainly coming home to roost. EVEL will become a necessity and really should colour the voting in England - as should the fear of far left hegemony from a Scottish party that need not fear the electoral consequences. What is fascinating (if thats the right word) is that the SNP are rising as the logic for Scottish independence declines. The promise of a free lunch north of the border is obviously very alluring.
You really are stupid , EVEL will sign the fate of the union.
A resurgent Tory Party would be good for democracy IMHO - the choice of Left, Very Left And Really Very Left isn't a choice.
I hope you support more choice in Sussex.
Well in West Sussex the Tories got 100% of the MPs with less than 50% of the vote. Doesn't feel like we should be patting ourselves on the pack about our diversity of choice quite yet.
Not quite sure why you keep going on about Ed, but clearly touched that I left such an impression on you.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
And there are about 2 million pencil waverers in England and Wales who will be the deciding factor in this - whether they are prepared for that or not. This election has become de facto an extension of indyref into the whole UK
An election is not a referendum. But the warped devolution settlement foisted on us by Labour is certainly coming home to roost. EVEL will become a necessity and really should colour the voting in England - as should the fear of far left hegemony from a Scottish party that need not fear the electoral consequences. What is fascinating (if thats the right word) is that the SNP are rising as the logic for Scottish independence declines. The promise of a free lunch north of the border is obviously very alluring.
You really are stupid , EVEL will sign the fate of the union.
Good.
I'm all for another Independence Vote, but next time the English, Welsh and N Irish get a vote too, and have their say on any settlement. Seems only fair.
My final (long) blogpost before GE2015. Rehearsing out my thoughts on GE2010, minor party positions for GE2015, potential seat bands, and potential next government compositions:
An excellent piece. Scan reading it I think UKIP coalition can be ruled out. Labour abstaining the QS motion is a possibility though, which perhaps means there can be a Conservative Gov't on 285 seats or so - not necessarily lead by Dave...
Many thanks for your kind words, Pulpstar.
Yes, you could be right. A Conservative seat tally of 285+ is interesting.
If the Lib Dems did, by some miracle, walk away with 30 seats, and the DUP could be squared, a temporary arrangement on Con - 286, LD - 30, DUP - 9 could perhaps be reached to govern for a year or so.
I think the Lib Dems under Clegg might go for that if LD+Lab was < Conservatives, and the alternative was a shaky Lab-SNP deal.
Mr. Isam, in the 18 years since 1997, we've had 13 years of Scottish Chancellors and 3 years of Scottish Prime Ministers (if we count Blair as English).
Given Scotland has 8% of the population, that's hardly the epitome of anti-democratic oppression.
Token unionist scots in key jobs doesn't alter the fact that scots were are ruled by people they didn't vote for
The Scots voted for a Blair-led New Labour party. They got government from a Blair-led New Labour party. They were ruled by exactly the people they voted for.
Fair enough, though then the choice was that or Major... Now they have rumbled if they want a big voice in the union the vote no and vote SNP... Who can argue it works?
They can legitimately vote for whoever they want. But it is the responsibility of the other parties not to be blackmailed by a party that wishes to destroy the UK. The other parties should get together to pass English votes for English laws and form a government that can pass bills in England. There is no reason that England should lack a government because the Scots are playing silly buggers.
Another one that does not like democracy, the sooner they get EVEL through and start winding up the UK the better.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
That would leave the Con/LD coalition with a majority of 25 and that's before any losses for the Conservatives and Lib Dems in England and Wales. The Lib Dems need to do their bit and hold some seats in Scotland for the coalition to continue.
It's possible (albeit unlikely) that they hold three: BR&S (60% chance of it having a coalition MP), East Dunbartonshire (15% chance of tactical unionist voting getting Jo Swinson over the line), and Orkney & Shetland (60% chance of Mr Carmichael hanging on given v. low 'Out' vote).
DCT and Dumfries and Galloway are respectively 50 and about 15% Tory shots also for coalition hang ons - there are enough unionists in both to get them over the line if they can galvanise the anti-SNP voters
D&G is a SNP-LAB swing a thon. The Cons can only win if the LAb/SNP vote splits perfectly, something like a 400 vote margin for the Conservatives to win in.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
That's a very optimistic way of looking at it.
I'm pretty sure Labour would rather have 35-40 Scottish seats, even if the Lib Dems retained a few, than see everything lost to the SNP.
Lab might but for me the more Socialists the better.
John, what do you think the lowest number of Labour seats on which EM could plausibly become PM is? (My take is that it's possible up to a Tory lead of about 15, so say 284-269, but very difficult to imagine beyond that.)
Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.
They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..
No, they'll do worse than UNS in Edinburgh. But lower swings are needed there. They'll outperform in Glasgow and the west where the 50+% majorities need to be toppled. They also do worse in LD/Con seats - hence Berwickshire and DCT having lower swings.
How will they do in the five straight SNP/Con seats? That's an interesting dynamic
The SNP seats are easy holds. Perth North Perthshire is not a 1-1000 shot though.
Oh yes, I wasn't suggesting they would not take them! More I think the swing may be rather small in Perth, Angus, Moray, Banff etc - their opposition is holding on as opposed to collapsing there.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
And there are about 2 million pencil waverers in England and Wales who will be the deciding factor in this - whether they are prepared for that or not. This election has become de facto an extension of indyref into the whole UK
An election is not a referendum. But the warped devolution settlement foisted on us by Labour is certainly coming home to roost. EVEL will become a necessity and really should colour the voting in England - as should the fear of far left hegemony from a Scottish party that need not fear the electoral consequences. What is fascinating (if thats the right word) is that the SNP are rising as the logic for Scottish independence declines. The promise of a free lunch north of the border is obviously very alluring.
You really are stupid , EVEL will sign the fate of the union.
I think you're right it will, now we are where we are (having not had a sensible federal settlement in 1999). Question is do the English overall care that much?
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
That's a very optimistic way of looking at it.
I'm pretty sure Labour would rather have 35-40 Scottish seats, even if the Lib Dems retained a few, than see everything lost to the SNP.
Quite. Although the effect is marginal, I think the SNP surge marginally helps David Cameron stay as PM.
If the SNP really are as set on voting against a Tory queen speech as they claim, it's hard to see how lib seats falling to SNP could be anything but bad for Dave.
As NickPalmer said on the previous thread, the result that would come from such a thing makes a mockery of our electoral system. On top of this, you could have Labour win more seats with the Conservatives getting more votes, and UKIP having a fraction of the seats of the Lib Dems despite getting double the vote. Electoral form is severely needed. I can not see how anyone will be able to support the current system.
In 1983 the Alliance got 25% of the vote against 27% for Labour, and got fewer than one tenth the number of seats. The voting system did not change. There were no riots.
In 1951, the Labour Party got more votes than the Conservatives, yet they won the election.
I don't buy the masses rising up in disgust at the election result.
The only people who can change the system are those who do well out of the system. Therefore the system doesn't change.
However...
We have been through something like this before, 1910-1931.
A series of hung parliaments and coalitions, party splits, and part of the union delivering a wipeout election result, and seceding, thereby altering the balance of forces at Westminster.
The political landscape at the end looked nothing like it did at the beginning, and one of the great governing parties had imploded, never to fully recover.
Someone said on Sky that the example of the SNP may galvanise other voters around the UK to see the powerful attraction of gaining leverage in a hung parliament.
The big parties should be worried, and perhaps ought to bite the PR bullet, while they have the chance.
Love her or loathe her, Nicola Sturgeon has shot UKIPs fox, destroyed the Scottish Labour Party and set the tone for the entire election. Astonishing politician, albeit she has taken advantage of the badly bungled devolution and then indyref campaigns from the unionists.
I do think the SNP are quite a dangerous and quite a xenephonic party however you can't help admire the way Sturgeon has performed in this campaign and it is rather inspiring to see people in safe establishment party seats changing parties in sufficient numbers to make a difference. From a betting point of view they will no doubt win plenty of money for a lot of us and they've also (more so than UKIP) made this the most interesting election in recent memory. So ignoring the policies they get a thumbs up from me!
Speaking from a knowledgeable point of view no doubt , or out of your erse more like. Explain your xenophobic if you can, or did you really mean they were musical.
I think the newspaper reports, social media activity in Scotland and experiences of a couple of English people I know living in Edinburgh form my judgement of how some SNP supporters and activists feel about outsiders, but of course that is only my opinion. I'm sure your political affiliation and outlook might lead to a different belief. Either way I would compliment them on an excellent campaign.
Love her or loathe her, Nicola Sturgeon has shot UKIPs fox, destroyed the Scottish Labour Party and set the tone for the entire election. Astonishing politician, albeit she has taken advantage of the badly bungled devolution and then indyref campaigns from the unionists.
I do think the SNP are quite a dangerous and quite a xenephonic party however you can't help admire the way Sturgeon has performed in this campaign and it is rather inspiring to see people in safe establishment party seats changing parties in sufficient numbers to make a difference. From a betting point of view they will no doubt win plenty of money for a lot of us and they've also (more so than UKIP) made this the most interesting election in recent memory. So ignoring the policies they get a thumbs up from me!
Sturgeon has out Faraged Farage. Kippers would do well to take notes - their campaign relative to the Nats has been an abject failure.
The SNP had a three month PPB last autumn which energised many scots to vote for them knowing they could stay Im the union with unprecedented pro Scottish representation in Westminster, hardly comparable
Would be comparable to a eu ref six months before a GE.. You reckon anti EU parties would fare better or worse after a narrow defeat?
Ukip had Euro elections last year - and won ! The SNP lost the referendum.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
That's a very optimistic way of looking at it.
I'm pretty sure Labour would rather have 35-40 Scottish seats, even if the Lib Dems retained a few, than see everything lost to the SNP.
Quite. Although the effect is marginal, I think the SNP surge marginally helps David Cameron stay as PM.
If the SNP really are as set on voting against a Tory queen speech as they claim, it's hard to see how lib seats falling to SNP could be anything but bad for Dave.
Lefties..do not worry..Eds interview with Brand will have all those errant Scots flooding back to Labour..Crosby must be pissing himself laughing
The way Labour are trying to ignore Scotland beggars belief. They still have a sense of entitlement to those seats and BJOwls is being delusional about the consequences.
I think SeanT was the first on here to mention what the decimation of Scottish Labour would mean for the heart and soul of the UK party. I thought he was right, but it was unlikely to happen. I still think he's right, and now that it probably will happen.
It's not quite an existential crisis for Labour, but it's bad. *If* it happens, and the SNP remains popular, then the Labour party in 2020 will be a different beast. I just cannot tell which way it'll swing.
Decimation is losing a tenth , it does not begin to describe what is happening.
Pedant mode on (and I think this has been commented on before): in its traditional sense, and its origins, it means removal of one out of ten. But that is rather archaic now, and most definitions are more general: e.g. to cause great destruction to.
Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.
They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..
No, they'll do worse than UNS in Edinburgh. But lower swings are needed there. They'll outperform in Glasgow and the west where the 50+% majorities need to be toppled. They also do worse in LD/Con seats - hence Berwickshire and DCT having lower swings.
How will they do in the five straight SNP/Con seats? That's an interesting dynamic
The SNP seats are easy holds. Perth North Perthshire is not a 1-1000 shot though.
Oh yes, I wasn't suggesting they would not take them! More I think the swing may be rather small in Perth, Angus, Moray, Banff etc - their opposition is holding on as opposed to collapsing there.
In the current SNP seats you might see only tiny increases (if at all) in the SNP vote.
The L/Dems will also be wiped off the map in Scotland if STV are right. If that is so, then I see less than 10 seats for the L/Dems in the rest of the UK.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
That would leave the Con/LD coalition with a majority of 25 and that's before any losses for the Conservatives and Lib Dems in England and Wales. The Lib Dems need to do their bit and hold some seats in Scotland for the coalition to continue.
It's possible (albeit unlikely) that they hold three: BR&S (60% chance of it having a coalition MP), East Dunbartonshire (15% chance of tactical unionist voting getting Jo Swinson over the line), and Orkney & Shetland (60% chance of Mr Carmichael hanging on given v. low 'Out' vote).
DCT and Dumfries and Galloway are respectively 50 and about 15% Tory shots also for coalition hang ons - there are enough unionists in both to get them over the line if they can galvanise the anti-SNP voters
D&G is a SNP-LAB swing a thon. The Cons can only win if the LAb/SNP vote splits perfectly, something like a 400 vote margin for the Conservatives to win in.
Yep. It's the one seat they are trying to poke through the middle. If it was the old Galloway and Upper Nithsdale seat they'd take it this time IMO.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
That's a very optimistic way of looking at it.
I'm pretty sure Labour would rather have 35-40 Scottish seats, even if the Lib Dems retained a few, than see everything lost to the SNP.
Quite. Although the effect is marginal, I think the SNP surge marginally helps David Cameron stay as PM.
If the SNP really are as set on voting against a Tory queen speech as they claim, it's hard to see how lib seats falling to SNP could be anything but bad for Dave.
The SNP vote down the Con Queen Speech.
The question is, DO LABOUR.
It's not difficult to imagine Kate Hoey, Frank Field, Gisela Stuart, Simon Danzcuk, and maybe a few others abstaining...
Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.
They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..
No, they'll do worse than UNS in Edinburgh. But lower swings are needed there. They'll outperform in Glasgow and the west where the 50+% majorities need to be toppled. They also do worse in LD/Con seats - hence Berwickshire and DCT having lower swings.
How will they do in the five straight SNP/Con seats? That's an interesting dynamic
The SNP seats are easy holds. Perth North Perthshire is not a 1-1000 shot though.
Oh yes, I wasn't suggesting they would not take them! More I think the swing may be rather small in Perth, Angus, Moray, Banff etc - their opposition is holding on as opposed to collapsing there.
I'd expect Dundee East and Western Isles to have comfortably the largest majorities in Scotland.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
And there are about 2 million pencil waverers in England and Wales who will be the deciding factor in this - whether they are prepared for that or not. This election has become de facto an extension of indyref into the whole UK
An election is not a referendum. But the warped devolution settlement foisted on us by Labour is certainly coming home to roost. EVEL will become a necessity and really should colour the voting in England - as should the fear of far left hegemony from a Scottish party that need not fear the electoral consequences. What is fascinating (if thats the right word) is that the SNP are rising as the logic for Scottish independence declines. The promise of a free lunch north of the border is obviously very alluring.
You really are stupid , EVEL will sign the fate of the union.
I think you're right it will, now we are where we are (having not had a sensible federal settlement in 1999). Question is do the English overall care that much?
No, England do not care. Only unionist politicians care.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
That's one way of looking at it.
The other one is that Labour MPs will be strung up if they are perceived to be short changing England and Wales in any way whatsoever.
That's right. I think Labour would sit it out in opposition and abstain on the Queen's speech. Cameron would be left running a government that would not have the power to legislate. Both parties would be left staring into space and hoping that something would just turn up.
A resurgent Tory Party would be good for democracy IMHO - the choice of Left, Very Left And Really Very Left isn't a choice.
I hope you support more choice in Sussex.
Well in West Sussex the Tories got 100% of the MPs with less than 50% of the vote. Doesn't feel like we should be patting ourselves on the pack about our diversity of choice quite yet.
Not quite sure why you keep going on about Ed, but clearly touched that I left such an impression on you.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
That's a very optimistic way of looking at it.
I'm pretty sure Labour would rather have 35-40 Scottish seats, even if the Lib Dems retained a few, than see everything lost to the SNP.
Quite. Although the effect is marginal, I think the SNP surge marginally helps David Cameron stay as PM.
If the SNP really are as set on voting against a Tory queen speech as they claim, it's hard to see how lib seats falling to SNP could be anything but bad for Dave.
The SNP vote down the Con Queen Speech.
The question is, DO LABOUR.
It's not difficult to imagine Kate Hoey, Frank Field, Gisela Stuart, Simon Danzcuk, and maybe a few others abstaining...
Top of the list is John Mann. Trident is of the UTMOST importance to him in Barrow.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
And there are about 2 million pencil waverers in England and Wales who will be the deciding factor in this - whether they are prepared for that or not. This election has become de facto an extension of indyref into the whole UK
An election is not a referendum. But the warped devolution settlement foisted on us by Labour is certainly coming home to roost. EVEL will become a necessity and really should colour the voting in England - as should the fear of far left hegemony from a Scottish party that need not fear the electoral consequences. What is fascinating (if thats the right word) is that the SNP are rising as the logic for Scottish independence declines. The promise of a free lunch north of the border is obviously very alluring.
You really are stupid , EVEL will sign the fate of the union.
Good.
I'm all for another Independence Vote, but next time the English, Welsh and N Irish get a vote too, and have their say on any settlement. Seems only fair.
They would vote to keep gouging us, they will try and hang on to us as long as we are producing cash
Love her or loathe her, Nicola Sturgeon has shot UKIPs fox, destroyed the Scottish Labour Party and set the tone for the entire election. Astonishing politician, albeit she has taken advantage of the badly bungled devolution and then indyref campaigns from the unionists.
I do think the SNP are quite a dangerous and quite a xenephonic party however you can't help admire the way Sturgeon has performed in this campaign and it is rather inspiring to see people in safe establishment party seats changing parties in sufficient numbers to make a difference. From a betting point of view they will no doubt win plenty of money for a lot of us and they've also (more so than UKIP) made this the most interesting election in recent memory. So ignoring the policies they get a thumbs up from me!
Sturgeon has out Faraged Farage. Kippers would do well to take notes - their campaign relative to the Nats has been an abject failure.
The SNP had a three month PPB last autumn which energised many scots to vote for them knowing they could stay Im the union with unprecedented pro Scottish representation in Westminster, hardly comparable
Would be comparable to a eu ref six months before a GE.. You reckon anti EU parties would fare better or worse after a narrow defeat?
Ukip had Euro elections last year - and won ! The SNP lost the referendum.
Not comparable to anyone serious but good attempt at partisan point
Lefties..do not worry..Eds interview with Brand will have all those errant Scots flooding back to Labour..Crosby must be pissing himself laughing
The way Labour are trying to ignore Scotland beggars belief. They still have a sense of entitlement to those seats and BJOwls is being delusional about the consequences.
I think SeanT was the first on here to mention what the decimation of Scottish Labour would mean for the heart and soul of the UK party. I thought he was right, but it was unlikely to happen. I still think he's right, and now that it probably will happen.
It's not quite an existential crisis for Labour, but it's bad. *If* it happens, and the SNP remains popular, then the Labour party in 2020 will be a different beast. I just cannot tell which way it'll swing.
Decimation is losing a tenth , it does not begin to describe what is happening.
Pedant mode on (and I think this has been commented on before): in its traditional sense, and its origins, it means removal of one out of ten. But that is rather archaic now, and most definitions are more general: e.g. to cause great destruction to.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
And there are about 2 million pencil waverers in England and Wales who will be the deciding factor in this - whether they are prepared for that or not. This election has become de facto an extension of indyref into the whole UK
An election is not a referendum. But the warped devolution settlement foisted on us by Labour is certainly coming home to roost. EVEL will become a necessity and really should colour the voting in England - as should the fear of far left hegemony from a Scottish party that need not fear the electoral consequences. What is fascinating (if thats the right word) is that the SNP are rising as the logic for Scottish independence declines. The promise of a free lunch north of the border is obviously very alluring.
You really are stupid , EVEL will sign the fate of the union.
Good.
I'm all for another Independence Vote, but next time the English, Welsh and N Irish get a vote too, and have their say on any settlement. Seems only fair.
They would vote to keep gouging us, they will try and hang on to us as long as we are producing cash
I suspect a sizeable number will vote to say 'Bye Bye'. That's what you want isn't it?
Mildly amusing that just as UNS is being discarded at Uk level that it is assumed it will come to pass in Scotland.
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
Swing in Sotland isn't Universal, Ashcroft polls suggest SNP do better than Universal Swing.
They do better than UNS in every constituency ? Only "Natlogic" could come up with that..
No, they'll do worse than UNS in Edinburgh. But lower swings are needed there. They'll outperform in Glasgow and the west where the 50+% majorities need to be toppled. They also do worse in LD/Con seats - hence Berwickshire and DCT having lower swings.
How will they do in the five straight SNP/Con seats? That's an interesting dynamic
The SNP seats are easy holds. Perth North Perthshire is not a 1-1000 shot though.
Oh yes, I wasn't suggesting they would not take them! More I think the swing may be rather small in Perth, Angus, Moray, Banff etc - their opposition is holding on as opposed to collapsing there.
I'd expect Dundee East and Western Isles to have comfortably the largest majorities in Scotland.
Mr. Isam, in the 18 years since 1997, we've had 13 years of Scottish Chancellors and 3 years of Scottish Prime Ministers (if we count Blair as English).
Given Scotland has 8% of the population, that's hardly the epitome of anti-democratic oppression.
Token unionist scots in key jobs doesn't alter the fact that scots were are ruled by people they didn't vote for
The Scots voted for a Blair-led New Labour party. They got government from a Blair-led New Labour party. They were ruled by exactly the people they voted for.
Correct. isam's comments are silly. Blair went to a Scottish school more posh than Eton. Labour in 1997 was riddled with Scots they held a mass of Scottish seats and they thrust devolution on us.
Its not about the politicians nationality ting tong, but what they want for Scotland
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
That's one way of looking at it.
The other one is that Labour MPs will be strung up if they are perceived to be short changing England and Wales in any way whatsoever.
That's right. I think Labour would sit it out in opposition and abstain on the Queen's speech. Cameron would be left running a government that would not have the power to legislate. Both parties would be left staring into space and hoping that something would just turn up.
Could the electorate be playing a huge blinder here by leaving the politicians locked in a room for five years courtesy of FTPA yet unable to do anything at all?
Love her or loathe her, Nicola Sturgeon has shot UKIPs fox, destroyed the Scottish Labour Party and set the tone for the entire election. Astonishing politician, albeit she has taken advantage of the badly bungled devolution and then indyref campaigns from the unionists.
I do think the SNP are quite a dangerous and quite a xenephonic party however you can't help admire the way Sturgeon has performed in this campaign and it is rather inspiring to see people in safe establishment party seats changing parties in sufficient numbers to make a difference. From a betting point of view they will no doubt win plenty of money for a lot of us and they've also (more so than UKIP) made this the most interesting election in recent memory. So ignoring the policies they get a thumbs up from me!
Sturgeon has out Faraged Farage. Kippers would do well to take notes - their campaign relative to the Nats has been an abject failure.
The SNP had a three month PPB last autumn which energised many scots to vote for them knowing they could stay Im the union with unprecedented pro Scottish representation in Westminster, hardly comparable
Would be comparable to a eu ref six months before a GE.. You reckon anti EU parties would fare better or worse after a narrow defeat?
Ukip had Euro elections last year - and won ! The SNP lost the referendum.
Yes but the referendum was more recent and SNP (well the Yes vote) won over 35% of the electorate in a referendum with an 85% turnout, compared to the Europeans where the Kippers scored around 10% of the potential electorate's votes. One is clearly going to give you more momentum than the other.
So if true we will have a 59 seat start for EICIPM from Scotland and the Tory led Coalition support from Scotland down from 12 to zero.
The left of centre Ed led coalition up to 59 seats from 47
That's a very optimistic way of looking at it.
I'm pretty sure Labour would rather have 35-40 Scottish seats, even if the Lib Dems retained a few, than see everything lost to the SNP.
Quite. Although the effect is marginal, I think the SNP surge marginally helps David Cameron stay as PM.
If the SNP really are as set on voting against a Tory queen speech as they claim, it's hard to see how lib seats falling to SNP could be anything but bad for Dave.
The SNP vote down the Con Queen Speech.
The question is, DO LABOUR.
Have the SNP said they will vote down a Con QS rather than abstain ?
If they have all 57 MPs why gamble on another election ?
Comments
Also - if this % were to be repeated at Holyrood in 2016, what would the likely line up of MSPs be ?
You what......That can't be right....
A resurgent Tory Party would be good for democracy IMHO - the choice of Left, Very Left And Really Very Left isn't a choice.
The other one is that Labour MPs will be strung up if they are perceived to be short changing England and Wales in any way whatsoever.
It's not quite an existential crisis for Labour, but it's bad. *If* it happens, and the SNP remains popular, then the Labour party in 2020 will be a different beast. I just cannot tell which way it'll swing.
The SNP vote efficiency basically seems crazy good.
What is fascinating (if thats the right word) is that the SNP are rising as the logic for Scottish independence declines. The promise of a free lunch north of the border is obviously very alluring.
I'll not get involved in any more Scottish markets.
Unless I see a Rick
The one constituency non UNS makes tougher for the SNP is Orkney.
https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2015/04/26/picking-the-players-our-next-government/
A daft comment from you. Still you told me "Ed Milliband - Ten More Years." Even in jest that was hilarious.
Mr. JEO, indeed.
Edited extra bit: although the real answer is an English Parliament.
UKIP are on 11-14% ish yet the Tories are within MOE of their 2010 figures.
The Lib Dems in the UK are in single figures ish having "mislaid" two thirds of their 2010 vote.
The SNP are challenging Pyongyang for voting intention stats (I exaggerate but you know what I mean). Yet Plaid are nowhere.
Labour are probably on for their third worst UK vote share since about 1918 and today SLAB are looking over their shoulders to keep ahead of SCONS (ffs!)
Yet:
Cameron remains favourite to be ejected from No 10 (just).
UKIP may conceivably end up with one seat only.
The Libs may still hold the balance of power, just like now.
Ed remains favourite (just) to be PM (even if the weakest since 1923), even though his vote share is possibly worse than Kinnock in 87 AND he'll have somewhat absentmindedly lost Scotland - possibly totally.
Odds on that lot in 2010? Funny old world.
I think electoral reform will be on the agenda next Friday.
I'm finding it hard to work out why people are having a problem with the concept. The SNP vote is highly correlated with the Yes vote. Areas that got a higher Yes vote will have a higher SNP score than areas with a low Yes vote.
I'm not saying they will all get the same vote percentage - how could you get that from what I said? I explicitly said they will get over the line with 35% in some constituencies in my previous post.
Labour potentially reaching the end as the dominant left of centre party. I would vote SNP in Scotland, PC in Wales and for an English Socialist party under PR
The Tories likely to move to the right in opposition too so
Maybe not.
Priority number one (for next week) is getting the keys to Downing Steet back from the right.
Should result in Chaos in the Tory party and the removal of Clegg.
Not a bad weeks work if the Crap one pulls that off
I've supported PR all my life (Danish upbringing and all that). Ideally, people would support whatever they think is the best system, regardless of party interest. But in the real world, it's sometimes perceived as relevant.
Would be comparable to a eu ref six months before a GE.. You reckon anti EU parties would fare better or worse after a narrow defeat?
Not quite sure why you keep going on about Ed, but clearly touched that I left such an impression on you.
I'm all for another Independence Vote, but next time the English, Welsh and N Irish get a vote too, and have their say on any settlement. Seems only fair.
Yes, you could be right. A Conservative seat tally of 285+ is interesting.
If the Lib Dems did, by some miracle, walk away with 30 seats, and the DUP could be squared, a temporary arrangement on Con - 286, LD - 30, DUP - 9 could perhaps be reached to govern for a year or so.
I think the Lib Dems under Clegg might go for that if LD+Lab was < Conservatives, and the alternative was a shaky Lab-SNP deal.
We have been through something like this before, 1910-1931.
A series of hung parliaments and coalitions, party splits, and part of the union delivering a wipeout election result, and seceding, thereby altering the balance of forces at Westminster.
The political landscape at the end looked nothing like it did at the beginning, and one of the great governing parties had imploded, never to fully recover.
Someone said on Sky that the example of the SNP may galvanise other voters around the UK to see the powerful attraction of gaining leverage in a hung parliament.
The big parties should be worried, and perhaps ought to bite the PR bullet, while they have the chance.
I'm sure your political affiliation and outlook might lead to a different belief. Either way I would compliment them on an excellent campaign.
The question is, DO LABOUR.
II usually avoid it for that reason. Sorry. ;-)
It's the correct usage. Mr. G is quite right to point that out.
And yes - your remark was hilarious enough to make a lasting impression on me.
If they have all 57 MPs why gamble on another election ?