politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON 6% lead in latest Ashcroft national poll while in new s

Been thinking about the tories FPTP "vote efficiency" problem, and turning it round to potentially being a problem for Labour now.

Here in Herts Labour got reasonably close even in rock-solid tory seats like NE Herts, hertford and Stortford etc in 1997 and 2001, and won several such as Stevenage, Welwyn Hatfield etc. Shapps' majority in WH is now >17K - but he LOST in 2005.

In 2010 Lab were often 3rd behind the LDs, suffering woefully compared to 2005. I looked at 5 now-solid Tory seats and on average labour went from 27% to 16.5% in those constituencies, and the LDs moved up into 2nd or close 3rd in 1 case. In fact Labour in absolute terms lost well over 50% of its voters since 2001 round here. NE Herts as an example - gone from 36.4% to 16.4% from 2001 to 2010.

What if that Labour vote is coming back, but uselessly? If Labour drag themselves up from 29% to ~33% nationally, how much of that is Lab voters in rural/affluent areas coming back to the fold from the LDs or from staying at home? Could this be repeated elsewhere - labour racking up SOME votes in the shires, the SW, East Anglia etc, but not winning many/any more seats there?

Any specific polling on this?

Alistair said:

Snow in Edinburgh.

I did predict snow this week.

@May2015NS: 36-30% is a scenario that wld actually give Cam a path to 323—Con + LD = 325. Plus 10 DUP/Ukip http://t.co/rgwnBFkyMi http://t.co/8CuSPRw8dj

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MarkSenior said:

Anorak said:

MarkSenior said:

Pulpstar said:

Garethofthevale said:

Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very se polls.

None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.

There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .

That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.

onally .

Are the LDs doing better or worse in the SW than nationally ?

MarkSenior said:

Anorak said:

MarkSenior said:

Pulpstar said:

Garethofthevale said:

Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very difficult to reconcile.

Again this raises the question, is the company doing the national poll the same as the company or companies doing the individual seat polls? Looking at this I would suggest the answer is no. The lack of transparency is quite unsatisfactory when people are betting a lot of money on these polls.

None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.

There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .

That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.

What gaping hole , on the last thread SeanT bigged up the Wales and South West subsample this week with Conservatives at 40% , he conveniently ignored last weeks equivalent sub sample with them at meltdown in Wales and South West at just 23% . Sub samples are no evidence for anything and the likelihood is that the Conservatives are doing no better or worse in the South West than nationally .

Uhm, in my life I have never "bigged up a subsample". Please find this post of mine on the last thread and repost it, otherwise withdraw your silly remark.

My belief that the LDs are going daaaahn in the southwest comes from the fact I am Cornish, and know a few people in Cornish politics, and plenty of Cornish voters.

Their consensus is that the LDs will be reduced to one Cornish seat: North Cornwall. It is fair to say this is likely to be repeated across the SW. Look at the NATIONAL polls!

http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/ Look at Cornwall on that map, Sean.

If the Conservatives can JUST creep up a touch in G Grimsby to deliver the 10-1 on 2nd I'll be well chuffed.

Sean_F said:

Flightpath1 said:

Its places like Grimsby where the UKIP vote is going to gift the election to the SNP.

The Conservatives haven't won Grimsby since 1935. It would make more sense for Conservatives to switch behind UKIP.

can never quite get my head round the idea that SeanF is no longer a tory - but I would rather see Labour win than have UKIP MPs

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MarkSenior said:

Anorak said:

MarkSenior said:

Pulpstar said:

Garethofthevale said:

Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very se polls.

None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.

There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .

That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.

onally .

Are the LDs doing better or worse in the SW than nationally ?

MarkSenior said:

Anorak said:

MarkSenior said:

Pulpstar said:

Garethofthevale said:

None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.

There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .

That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.

What gaping hole , on the last thread SeanT bigged up the Wales and South West subsample this week with Conservatives at 40% , he conveniently ignored last weeks equivalent sub sample with them at meltdown in Wales and South West at just 23% . Sub samples are no evidence for anything and the likelihood is that the Conservatives are doing no better or worse in the South West than nationally .

Uhm, in my life I have never "bigged up a subsample". Please find this post of mine on the last thread and repost it, otherwise withdraw your silly remark.

My belief that the LDs are going daaaahn in the southwest comes from the fact I am Cornish, and know a few people in Cornish politics, and plenty of Cornish voters.

Their consensus is that the LDs will be reduced to one Cornish seat: North Cornwall. It is fair to say this is likely to be repeated across the SW. Look at the NATIONAL polls!

It was your post agreeing with Pulpstar's reference to the Ashcroft sub sample , backed up by your reference to your dear old mum .

JosiasJessop said:

Alistair said:

Snow in Edinburgh.

I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.

Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?

You've been lucky! I've seen plenty of snow in Edinburgh, though it's noticeably less likely to fall/lie than the higher ground around it and to its hinterland.

East Lothian is the place with the microclimate really - Dunbar for sunshine and in the days of yore seaside holidays.

Cameron could be heading for a majority if the 6% lead is correct and he manages to win LD marginals in the south-west.

I did think that the FTB stamp duty thing from Labour indicated that their private polling was not looking good. Its such a tory type policy and goes against what they had been saying about the boosting house prices (as that is what it will do)

Scott_P said:

Anorak said:

Mr Bean, I assume, not Blackadder.

Blackadder the 1st

His father called him Edna, and he killed Richard III.

I heard Ed's voice for the first time a couple of weeks ago. In response to being called a geek he raised his arms and said "Who cares?". He looked and sounded like the ultimate stereotypical adenoidal Jewish male.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Don't do itttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt...too late.

https://freehdwallpaper.in/walls/squirrel-jump-normal.jpg

That is Basil celebrating the Tory lead. A few hours of jittery PB Hodgery basking in The Lord A lead before we get the Yougov.

Anyone who seriously thinks the public perception is that Labour have moved to the left should take a look at Ashcroft's Scottish focus groups this week.

Typical comment: “Boris Johnson said Ed Miliband was dangerously left wing, but I see him as being centre-right”

In case anyone missed it before, this is the only resource I'm aware of which has all general election candidates on one page rather than having to click on individual constituencies to get the data:

http://www.bitly.com/Xb3122

SeanT said:

MarkSenior said:

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MarkSenior said:

Anorak said:

MarkSenior said:

Pulpstar said:

Garethofthevale said:

Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very se polls.

None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.

There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .

That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.

onally .

Are the LDs doing better or worse in the SW than nationally ?

MarkSenior said:

Anorak said:

MarkSenior said:

Pulpstar said:

Garethofthevale said:

None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.

There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .

That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.

What gaping hole , on the last thread SeanT bigged up the Wales and South West subsample this week with Conservatives at 40% , he conveniently ignored last weeks equivalent sub sample with them at meltdown in Wales and South West at just 23% . Sub samples are no evidence for anything and the likelihood is that the Conservatives are doing no better or worse in the South West than nationally .

Uhm, in my life I have never "bigged up a subsample". Please find this post of mine on the last thread and repost it, otherwise withdraw your silly remark.

My belief that the LDs are going daaaahn in the southwest comes from the fact I am Cornish, and know a few people in Cornish politics, and plenty of Cornish voters.

Their consensus is that the LDs will be reduced to one Cornish seat: North Cornwall. It is fair to say this is likely to be repeated across the SW. Look at the NATIONAL polls!

It was your post agreeing with Pulpstar's reference to the Ashcroft sub sample , backed up by your reference to your dear old mum .

Repost it. Let's see if I personally big up a subsample. I don't, do I? So you're talking bollocks.

See the 538 prediction for the SW.

LDs to hold Torbay, Yeovil and.... that's about it.

Torbay very unlikely imo. Even Yeovil is in play judging by Cameron visiting there yesterday!

Richard_Nabavi said:

I don't think there is anything at all odd about the difference between the Ashcroft national and these constituency polls. The four seats he's examined are hugely different to the country as a whole, which is why he chose them - to see what was happening in some UKIP targets.

Quite - looking at Lab-Con swing in these isn't meaningless but it's close to it.

perdix said:

Brom said:

Toffeenose said:

taffys said:

Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.

If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.

I wonder if this is sinking in....

I think you will find Mr. Cameron has so antagonised the Kippers, they would not trust him with a referendum.

Yes let's face it Cameron isn't that bothered about a referendum or he would have had one. If they do form a coalition with the Lib Dems 'no referendum' will no doubt be an early concession again.

..... Cameron would have had one.....". You are either ignorant of political facts of life or are deliberately misleading. In order to have a referendum on anything, the government needs a majority vote in the Commons. Neither Labour or the LibDums would have voted for one on the EU in the recent parliament. That's why a Conservative majority government is needed.

Correct - I find it appalling that people can be so deliberately misleading. I cannot believe anyone commenting on a site like this does not know that a referendum act needs to be passed in parliament.

SeanT said:

MarkSenior said:

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MarkSenior said:

Anorak said:

MarkSenior said:

Pulpstar said:

Garethofthevale said:

Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very se polls.

None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.

There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .

That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.

onally .

Are the LDs doing better or worse in the SW than nationally ?

MarkSenior said:

Anorak said:

MarkSenior said:

Pulpstar said:

Garethofthevale said:

None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.

There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .

That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.

What gaping hole , on the last thread SeanT bigged up the Wales and South West subsample this week with Conservatives at 40% , he conveniently ignored last weeks equivalent sub sample with them at meltdown in Wales and South West at just 23% . Sub samples are no evidence for anything and the likelihood is that the Conservatives are doing no better or worse in the South West than nationally .

Uhm, in my life I have never "bigged up a subsample". Please find this post of mine on the last thread and repost it, otherwise withdraw your silly remark.

My belief that the LDs are going daaaahn in the southwest comes from the fact I am Cornish, and know a few people in Cornish politics, and plenty of Cornish voters.

Their consensus is that the LDs will be reduced to one Cornish seat: North Cornwall. It is fair to say this is likely to be repeated across the SW. Look at the NATIONAL polls!

It was your post agreeing with Pulpstar's reference to the Ashcroft sub sample , backed up by your reference to your dear old mum .

Repost it. Let's see if I personally big up a subsample. I don't, do I? So you're talking bollocks.

See the 538 prediction for the SW.

LDs to hold Torbay, Yeovil and.... that's about it.

Labour even get in on the party in Bristol West

Problems for Labour in the West Midlands don't revolve around Cannock Chase, they concern seats like Dudley South, Halesowen, Stourbridge, Worcester, Tamworth, Stafford, Burton, Warwick&Leamington, Rugby, Redditch,

SeanT said:

538 has a new prediction.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/

Horribly messy. No one with the right number of seats, unless the LDs agree to join Labour and the Nats (an unholy alliance which would last about two weeks)

2nd election immediately? A non government for years? Are we turning into Belgium, or Italy?

According to this, I'm registered in a tight marginal... shame my bloody ballot paper hasn't arrived yet! If it hasn't arrived today, may just have to come back to vote in person!

taffys said:

''Cameron could be heading for a majority if the 6% lead is correct and he manages to win LD marginals in the south-west.''

To do that Dave has to hold on to all his ultra con/lab marginals really doesn;t he? that Cannock Chase number shows he'll probably lose 10 even at the most optimistic.

Cannock Chase isn't the be-all and end-all of of West Midlands marginals. Seats like Stourbridge, Halesowen and Worcester are more important since there's more of them.

Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes

Labour source: "bemused by exuberance of my colleagues." Expects Tories to have 800k more in popular vote and Labour to get 260 seats.

800k c. = 3% lead

Danny565 said:

SeanT said:

MarkSenior said:

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MarkSenior said:

Anorak said:

MarkSenior said:

Pulpstar said:

Garethofthevale said:

Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very se polls.

None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.

There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .

That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.

onally .

Are the LDs doing better or worse in the SW than nationally ?

MarkSenior said:

Anorak said:

MarkSenior said:

Pulpstar said:

Garethofthevale said:

None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.

There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .

That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.

Uhm, in my life I have never "bigged up a subsample". Please find this post of mine on the last thread and repost it, otherwise withdraw your silly remark.

My belief that the LDs are going daaaahn in the southwest comes from the fact I am Cornish, and know a few people in Cornish politics, and plenty of Cornish voters.

Their consensus is that the LDs will be reduced to one Cornish seat: North Cornwall. It is fair to say this is likely to be repeated across the SW. Look at the NATIONAL polls!

It was your post agreeing with Pulpstar's reference to the Ashcroft sub sample , backed up by your reference to your dear old mum .

Repost it. Let's see if I personally big up a subsample. I don't, do I? So you're talking bollocks.

See the 538 prediction for the SW.

LDs to hold Torbay, Yeovil and.... that's about it.

Torbay very unlikely imo. Even Yeovil is in play judging by Cameron visiting there yesterday!

Cameron visited Torbay in 2010 , Marcus Wood had his photo taken with him . That went well didn't it ?

If UKIP is fading on the constituency polls by phone then why not on the internet polls? Shy kippers? Even ICM had UKIP back up.

Something I didn't spot till now - the Wikipedia 15-day moving average graph hasn't been updated for 3 weeks.

anotherDave said:

Flightpath1 said:

Brom said:

Toffeenose said:

taffys said:

Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.

If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.

I wonder if this is sinking in....

I think you will find Mr. Cameron has so antagonised the Kippers, they would not trust him with a referendum.

Yes let's face it Cameron isn't that bothered about a referendum or he would have had one. If they do form a coalition with the Lib Dems 'no referendum' will no doubt be an early concession again.

You do talk a lot of silly rubbish to each other.
There currently is not a majority in parliament for a referendum. If people do not vote for a tory majority there will not be a majority in parliament for a referendum after May 7.
UKIP are a bunch if dissembling troughers, they are destroying any chance of a referendum.

If the Conservative MPs had voted in favour of an EU referendum in 2011 it would have passed. Mr Cameron ordered them to vote against it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8847123/EU-referendum-how-the-MPs-voted.html

Exactly. You can have all the Tory MPs in the world in the Commons but if your leader isn't interested in a referendum then chances are most of your MPs will follow suit.

AndyJS said:

In case anyone missed it before, this is the only resource I'm aware of which has all general election candidates on one page rather than having to click on individual constituencies to get the data:

http://www.bitly.com/Xb3122

Again, superb work on this.

MarkSenior said:

Danny565 said:

SeanT said:

MarkSenior said:

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MarkSenior said:

Anorak said:

MarkSenior said:

Pulpstar said:

Garethofthevale said:

Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very se polls.

None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.

There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .

That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.

onally .

Are the LDs doing better or worse in the SW than nationally ?

MarkSenior said:

Anorak said:

MarkSenior said:

Pulpstar said:

Garethofthevale said:

None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.

There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .

That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.

Uhm, in my life I have never "bigged up a subsample". Please find this post of mine on the last thread and repost it, otherwise withdraw your silly remark.

My belief that the LDs are going daaaahn in the southwest comes from the fact I am Cornish, and know a few people in Cornish politics, and plenty of Cornish voters.

Their consensus is that the LDs will be reduced to one Cornish seat: North Cornwall. It is fair to say this is likely to be repeated across the SW. Look at the NATIONAL polls!

It was your post agreeing with Pulpstar's reference to the Ashcroft sub sample , backed up by your reference to your dear old mum .

Repost it. Let's see if I personally big up a subsample. I don't, do I? So you're talking bollocks.

See the 538 prediction for the SW.

LDs to hold Torbay, Yeovil and.... that's about it.

Torbay very unlikely imo. Even Yeovil is in play judging by Cameron visiting there yesterday!

Cameron visited Torbay in 2010 , Marcus Wood had his photo taken with him . That went well didn't it ?

That was a year when the Lib Dems' national vote was going up, not more than halving.

AndyJS said:

taffys said:

''Cameron could be heading for a majority if the 6% lead is correct and he manages to win LD marginals in the south-west.''

To do that Dave has to hold on to all his ultra con/lab marginals really doesn;t he? that Cannock Chase number shows he'll probably lose 10 even at the most optimistic.

Cannock Chase isn't the be-all and end-all of of West Midlands marginals. Seats like Stourbridge, Halesowen and Worcester are more important since there's more of them.

Won because of Staffs hospital so really an outlier then and now.

Purseybear said:

in case you missed the correction Ashcrofts national sample size was standard 1003 people

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ANP-150427MONX-Full-data-tables.pdf

When it was corrected for Won't Vote, Don't Know etc it reduced to 558. The % shares are based on 558 people. See Table 3.

JosiasJessop said:

Alistair said:

Snow in Edinburgh.

I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.

Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?

Scotland is an eternal battle between the Arctic winds of the North Sea sweeping in over Edinburgh meeting the tropical warmth of the Gulf Stream that sweeps in over Glasgow.

Basically the east coast of Edinburgh is dry, it's the gulf stream that brings the moisture. Glasgow has almost twice the number of rain days than Edinburgh.

I pure love the Gulf Stream - if you don't love the gulf stream then take a peek at cities at a similar latitude to Glasgow or Manchester and look at what their temperature profiles look like and then you'll love the Gulf Stream too.

Mr. T, that's also possible.

anotherDave said:

Flightpath1 said:

Brom said:

Toffeenose said:

taffys said:

Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.

If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.

I wonder if this is sinking in....

I think you will find Mr. Cameron has so antagonised the Kippers, they would not trust him with a referendum.

Yes let's face it Cameron isn't that bothered about a referendum or he would have had one. If they do form a coalition with the Lib Dems 'no referendum' will no doubt be an early concession again.

You do talk a lot of silly rubbish to each other.
There currently is not a majority in parliament for a referendum. If people do not vote for a tory majority there will not be a majority in parliament for a referendum after May 7.
UKIP are a bunch if dissembling troughers, they are destroying any chance of a referendum.

If the Conservative MPs had voted in favour of an EU referendum in 2011 it would have passed. Mr Cameron ordered them to vote against it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8847123/EU-referendum-how-the-MPs-voted.html

80 tories and a couple of others voted for - the rest of Parliament voted against. If the tories had been whipped to vote the other way then a similar number of tories would have voted against the whip. There was no majority in parliament.

There would be a majority for a referendum in 2017 following negotiations if we get a tory majority.

SeanT said:

Tissue_Price said:

Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes

Labour source: "bemused by exuberance of my colleagues." Expects Tories to have 800k more in popular vote and Labour to get 260 seats.

800k c. = 3% lead

Labour on 260 implies Tories on about 290?

That means DICIPM

There is no way for Labour to be on 260 and the Tories to be on 290.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Was this the last Lord A poll before the election?

Next week is May Day Bank Holiday!

But is it a case of "May Day! May Day!" for Labour or the Tories?

Speedy said:

Alistair said:

Snow in Edinburgh.

I did predict snow this week.

We had some on west coast but mainly sleet , sun shining now and pretty cold.

Alistair said:

JosiasJessop said:

Alistair said:

Snow in Edinburgh.

I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.

Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?

Scotland is an eternal battle between the Arctic winds of the North Sea sweeping in over Edinburgh meeting the tropical warmth of the Gulf Stream that sweeps in over Glasgow.

Basically the east coast of Edinburgh is dry, it's the gulf stream that brings the moisture. Glasgow has almost twice the number of rain days than Edinburgh.

I pure love the Gulf Stream - if you don't love the gulf stream then take a peek at cities at a similar latitude to Glasgow or Manchester and look at what their temperature profiles look like and then you'll love the Gulf Stream too.

I remember my geography teacher in school saying that the warmest place in Britain in winter was the northwest coast of Scotland, thanks to the Gulf Stream. I would have guessed the Scilly Isles, but there we are. He also went on about warm wet winter westerlies - wind.

Pulpstar said:

Speedy said:

SeanT said:

Tissue_Price said:

Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes

Labour source: "bemused by exuberance of my colleagues." Expects Tories to have 800k more in popular vote and Labour to get 260 seats.

800k c. = 3% lead

Labour on 260 implies Tories on about 290?

That means DICIPM

There is no way for Labour to be on 260 and the Tories to be on 290.

Yes there is !

Indeed so - SNP 45, LD 30, UKIP 3 does it

LARGER = EMWNBPM

TGOHF said:

Flightpath1 said:

Its places like Grimsby where the UKIP vote is going to gift the election to the SNP.

Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.

If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.

Tories now begging kippers to vote for them , how desperate

SeanT said:

Tissue_Price said:

Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes

Labour source: "bemused by exuberance of my colleagues." Expects Tories to have 800k more in popular vote and Labour to get 260 seats.

800k c. = 3% lead

Labour on 260 implies Tories on about 290?

That means DICIPM

Unlikely though 260 is pretty much the minimum lab need to stop the tories. 260 + 55 scotland (doesnt matter if snp or lab) = 315 add in 4 sdlp, 1 green and 3 pc = 323 which is enough to defeat any tory block in a confidence motion. Could be less unless all LDs & DUP agree to actively support tories.

Reliabilty of anything on guido is dubious at best