Been thinking about the tories FPTP "vote efficiency" problem, and turning it round to potentially being a problem for Labour now.
Here in Herts Labour got reasonably close even in rock-solid tory seats like NE Herts, hertford and Stortford etc in 1997 and 2001, and won several such as Stevenage, Welwyn Hatfield etc. Shapps' majority in WH is now >17K - but he LOST in 2005.
In 2010 Lab were often 3rd behind the LDs, suffering woefully compared to 2005. I looked at 5 now-solid Tory seats and on average labour went from 27% to 16.5% in those constituencies, and the LDs moved up into 2nd or close 3rd in 1 case. In fact Labour in absolute terms lost well over 50% of its voters since 2001 round here. NE Herts as an example - gone from 36.4% to 16.4% from 2001 to 2010.
What if that Labour vote is coming back, but uselessly? If Labour drag themselves up from 29% to ~33% nationally, how much of that is Lab voters in rural/affluent areas coming back to the fold from the LDs or from staying at home? Could this be repeated elsewhere - labour racking up SOME votes in the shires, the SW, East Anglia etc, but not winning many/any more seats there?
There is something odd about the Ashcroft polls, does he use the same company for the national and constituency polls? In this group Cannock Chase has a 6.5% swing con - lab, Gt Grimsby 8% con - lab & Gt Yarmouth 4% con - lab but his national poll about 1% con - lab. That cant be accounted for by a better ground operation.
On any of the swings in the constituency polls the tories cant get enough seats to hang on, even if they hold seats like Gt Yarmouth
Cannock and Grimsby are Vote Nige, Get Ed (and Nicola) seats.
A divided right against a left where some Lib Dems fall in behind Labour.
I don't think there is anything at all odd about the difference between the Ashcroft national and these constituency polls. The four seats he's examined are hugely different to the country as a whole, which is why he chose them - to see what was happening in some UKIP targets.
Cannock Chase shows graphically where the tory problem is. Actually quite worrying for Con. And for UKIP, who could well cop part of the blame for letting in the fragrant Nicola.
Staffs hospital scandal and white flight from Brum/Wolverhampton. Mining was a generation ago now too.
Conservatives are successful in such seats in spite of the Cameroons.
Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very se polls.
None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
onally .
Are the LDs doing better or worse in the SW than nationally ?
Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very difficult to reconcile.
Again this raises the question, is the company doing the national poll the same as the company or companies doing the individual seat polls? Looking at this I would suggest the answer is no. The lack of transparency is quite unsatisfactory when people are betting a lot of money on these polls.
None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
What gaping hole , on the last thread SeanT bigged up the Wales and South West subsample this week with Conservatives at 40% , he conveniently ignored last weeks equivalent sub sample with them at meltdown in Wales and South West at just 23% . Sub samples are no evidence for anything and the likelihood is that the Conservatives are doing no better or worse in the South West than nationally .
Uhm, in my life I have never "bigged up a subsample". Please find this post of mine on the last thread and repost it, otherwise withdraw your silly remark.
My belief that the LDs are going daaaahn in the southwest comes from the fact I am Cornish, and know a few people in Cornish politics, and plenty of Cornish voters.
Their consensus is that the LDs will be reduced to one Cornish seat: North Cornwall. It is fair to say this is likely to be repeated across the SW. Look at the NATIONAL polls!
I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.
Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?
Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.
If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.
I wonder if this is sinking in....
I think you will find Mr. Cameron has so antagonised the Kippers, they would not trust him with a referendum.
Yes let's face it Cameron isn't that bothered about a referendum or he would have had one. If they do form a coalition with the Lib Dems 'no referendum' will no doubt be an early concession again.
..... Cameron would have had one.....". You are either ignorant of political facts of life or are deliberately misleading. In order to have a referendum on anything, the government needs a majority vote in the Commons. Neither Labour or the LibDums would have voted for one on the EU in the recent parliament. That's why a Conservative majority government is needed.
Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.
If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.
I wonder if this is sinking in....
I think you will find Mr. Cameron has so antagonised the Kippers, they would not trust him with a referendum.
Yes let's face it Cameron isn't that bothered about a referendum or he would have had one. If they do form a coalition with the Lib Dems 'no referendum' will no doubt be an early concession again.
You do talk a lot of silly rubbish to each other. There currently is not a majority in parliament for a referendum. If people do not vote for a tory majority there will not be a majority in parliament for a referendum after May 7. UKIP are a bunch if dissembling troughers, they are destroying any chance of a referendum.
Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very se polls.
None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
onally .
Are the LDs doing better or worse in the SW than nationally ?
None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
What gaping hole , on the last thread SeanT bigged up the Wales and South West subsample this week with Conservatives at 40% , he conveniently ignored last weeks equivalent sub sample with them at meltdown in Wales and South West at just 23% . Sub samples are no evidence for anything and the likelihood is that the Conservatives are doing no better or worse in the South West than nationally .
Uhm, in my life I have never "bigged up a subsample". Please find this post of mine on the last thread and repost it, otherwise withdraw your silly remark.
My belief that the LDs are going daaaahn in the southwest comes from the fact I am Cornish, and know a few people in Cornish politics, and plenty of Cornish voters.
Their consensus is that the LDs will be reduced to one Cornish seat: North Cornwall. It is fair to say this is likely to be repeated across the SW. Look at the NATIONAL polls!
It was your post agreeing with Pulpstar's reference to the Ashcroft sub sample , backed up by your reference to your dear old mum .
I don't think there is anything at all odd about the difference between the Ashcroft national and these constituency polls. The four seats he's examined are hugely different to the country as a whole, which is why he chose them - to see what was happening in some UKIP targets.
However, if you compare with the Lab-Tory marginals Ashcroft polled earlier this month, most of these also saw drops in the Tory vote. So there is a discrepancy unless we are suddenly seeing a Tory surge this week (which is not backed up elsewhere yet)
I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.
Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?
Plenty of snow if the conditions are right. Schools closed etc..
I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.
Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?
You've been lucky! I've seen plenty of snow in Edinburgh, though it's noticeably less likely to fall/lie than the higher ground around it and to its hinterland.
East Lothian is the place with the microclimate really - Dunbar for sunshine and in the days of yore seaside holidays.
I don't think there is anything at all odd about the difference between the Ashcroft national and these constituency polls. The four seats he's examined are hugely different to the country as a whole, which is why he chose them - to see what was happening in some UKIP targets.
The findings are consistent with his previous 23 constituency polls in Tory seats since the beginning of this month. 3% swing in E&W outside London to Labour in Tory held seats.
This week: 3% Last week: 3% Average since April 1st: 3%.
And the way that it is consistent is what is remarkable, and the 3% swing is what national phone pollsters say too on average in E&W.
I did think that the FTB stamp duty thing from Labour indicated that their private polling was not looking good. Its such a tory type policy and goes against what they had been saying about the boosting house prices (as that is what it will do)
Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.
If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.
I wonder if this is sinking in....
I think you will find Mr. Cameron has so antagonised the Kippers, they would not trust him with a referendum.
Yes let's face it Cameron isn't that bothered about a referendum or he would have had one. If they do form a coalition with the Lib Dems 'no referendum' will no doubt be an early concession again.
You do talk a lot of silly rubbish to each other. There currently is not a majority in parliament for a referendum. If people do not vote for a tory majority there will not be a majority in parliament for a referendum after May 7. UKIP are a bunch if dissembling troughers, they are destroying any chance of a referendum.
I'm amazed you think even with a Tory majority there would be a referendum. David Cameron is the Tory leader not Peter Bone. Either way, as has been said many times, it is the fault of the Tory campaign/record and not the UKIP voter as to why they won't be getting a majority.
His father called him Edna, and he killed Richard III.
I heard Ed's voice for the first time a couple of weeks ago. In response to being called a geek he raised his arms and said "Who cares?". He looked and sounded like the ultimate stereotypical adenoidal Jewish male.
"But that's just two polls. All the evidence from recent polling is that there's a fundamental difference in outcome being generated by methodological differences [i.e. one or both of the methods are wrong], so I don't think the basic MOE statistical approach works at all."
Yes - that is another source of error so the MOEs are even larger. It just shows how misleading a single number from a small sample poll is. One needs to look at quite large ranges - even larger than the ones I'm generating using the basic MOE statistical approach to allow for errors in methodology..
Out of interest, the new Ashcroft national poll has a sample size of 558 and an MOE of 4.1% The confidence limits on Con are 31.9% to 40.1%. On Lab the limits are 25.9% to 34.1%. Either could be in the lead.
If I look at all the limits of the three polls, the confidence limits that are consistent with all three are: Con 31.9% to 35.4% Lab 33.6% to 34.1%
Midpoints Con 33.6% Lab 33.8%.
Is anyone the wiser?
Out of interest, the new Ashcroft national poll has a sample size of 558 and an MOE of 4.1% The confidence limits on Con are 31.9% to 40.1%. On Lab the limits are 25.9% to 34.1%. Either could be in the lead. ---------
Thanks, Barnesian. Why does anyone take Ashcroft National polls seriously ? I believe the constituency polls have a sample size of 1000.
But most of the phone pollsters have samples the same size as Ashcroft (~1000). TNS is one of the few online pollsters with samples of that sort of size.
Earlier a poster said Sutton & Cheam 100% lib dem hold. Electoral Calculus has it as easy Tory win. I've been doing a lot of canvassing there. It's hard to say but perhaps 5-10% been saying can't vote for those Libs again as they are Tories in disguise. So, maybe calculus is right.
Anyone who seriously thinks the public perception is that Labour have moved to the left should take a look at Ashcroft's Scottish focus groups this week.
Typical comment: “Boris Johnson said Ed Miliband was dangerously left wing, but I see him as being centre-right”
In case anyone missed it before, this is the only resource I'm aware of which has all general election candidates on one page rather than having to click on individual constituencies to get the data:
Out of interest, the new Ashcroft national poll has a sample size of 558 and an MOE of 4.1% The confidence limits on Con are 31.9% to 40.1%. On Lab the limits are 25.9% to 34.1%. Either could be in the lead.
If I look at all the limits of the three polls, the confidence limits that are consistent with all three are: Con 31.9% to 35.4% Lab 33.6% to 34.1%
Midpoints Con 33.6% Lab 33.8%.
Is anyone the wiser?
But MOE ought to be smaller than the basic statistical assumption (of picking x people randomly from a population of y), because of weighting.
Basically MOE is a polite fiction - the statistical MOE should be smaller than mathematically expected but the methodological MOE (which the pollsters don't like to talk about as much) is much larger.
One or other method (or both) is currently, almost certainly, wrong.
Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very se polls.
None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
onally .
Are the LDs doing better or worse in the SW than nationally ?
None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
What gaping hole , on the last thread SeanT bigged up the Wales and South West subsample this week with Conservatives at 40% , he conveniently ignored last weeks equivalent sub sample with them at meltdown in Wales and South West at just 23% . Sub samples are no evidence for anything and the likelihood is that the Conservatives are doing no better or worse in the South West than nationally .
Uhm, in my life I have never "bigged up a subsample". Please find this post of mine on the last thread and repost it, otherwise withdraw your silly remark.
My belief that the LDs are going daaaahn in the southwest comes from the fact I am Cornish, and know a few people in Cornish politics, and plenty of Cornish voters.
Their consensus is that the LDs will be reduced to one Cornish seat: North Cornwall. It is fair to say this is likely to be repeated across the SW. Look at the NATIONAL polls!
It was your post agreeing with Pulpstar's reference to the Ashcroft sub sample , backed up by your reference to your dear old mum .
Repost it. Let's see if I personally big up a subsample. I don't, do I? So you're talking bollocks.
See the 538 prediction for the SW.
LDs to hold Torbay, Yeovil and.... that's about it.
Torbay very unlikely imo. Even Yeovil is in play judging by Cameron visiting there yesterday!
I don't think there is anything at all odd about the difference between the Ashcroft national and these constituency polls. The four seats he's examined are hugely different to the country as a whole, which is why he chose them - to see what was happening in some UKIP targets.
Quite - looking at Lab-Con swing in these isn't meaningless but it's close to it.
''Cameron could be heading for a majority if the 6% lead is correct and he manages to win LD marginals in the south-west.''
To do that Dave has to hold on to all his ultra con/lab marginals really doesn;t he? that Cannock Chase number shows he'll probably lose 10 even at the most optimistic.
Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.
If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.
I wonder if this is sinking in....
I think you will find Mr. Cameron has so antagonised the Kippers, they would not trust him with a referendum.
Yes let's face it Cameron isn't that bothered about a referendum or he would have had one. If they do form a coalition with the Lib Dems 'no referendum' will no doubt be an early concession again.
..... Cameron would have had one.....". You are either ignorant of political facts of life or are deliberately misleading. In order to have a referendum on anything, the government needs a majority vote in the Commons. Neither Labour or the LibDums would have voted for one on the EU in the recent parliament. That's why a Conservative majority government is needed.
Correct - I find it appalling that people can be so deliberately misleading. I cannot believe anyone commenting on a site like this does not know that a referendum act needs to be passed in parliament.
Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.
If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.
I wonder if this is sinking in....
I think you will find Mr. Cameron has so antagonised the Kippers, they would not trust him with a referendum.
Yes let's face it Cameron isn't that bothered about a referendum or he would have had one. If they do form a coalition with the Lib Dems 'no referendum' will no doubt be an early concession again.
You do talk a lot of silly rubbish to each other. There currently is not a majority in parliament for a referendum. If people do not vote for a tory majority there will not be a majority in parliament for a referendum after May 7. UKIP are a bunch if dissembling troughers, they are destroying any chance of a referendum.
If the Conservative MPs had voted in favour of an EU referendum in 2011 it would have passed. Mr Cameron ordered them to vote against it.
Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very se polls.
None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
onally .
Are the LDs doing better or worse in the SW than nationally ?
None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
What gaping hole , on the last thread SeanT bigged up the Wales and South West subsample this week with Conservatives at 40% , he conveniently ignored last weeks equivalent sub sample with them at meltdown in Wales and South West at just 23% . Sub samples are no evidence for anything and the likelihood is that the Conservatives are doing no better or worse in the South West than nationally .
Uhm, in my life I have never "bigged up a subsample". Please find this post of mine on the last thread and repost it, otherwise withdraw your silly remark.
My belief that the LDs are going daaaahn in the southwest comes from the fact I am Cornish, and know a few people in Cornish politics, and plenty of Cornish voters.
Their consensus is that the LDs will be reduced to one Cornish seat: North Cornwall. It is fair to say this is likely to be repeated across the SW. Look at the NATIONAL polls!
It was your post agreeing with Pulpstar's reference to the Ashcroft sub sample , backed up by your reference to your dear old mum .
Repost it. Let's see if I personally big up a subsample. I don't, do I? So you're talking bollocks.
See the 538 prediction for the SW.
LDs to hold Torbay, Yeovil and.... that's about it.
"But that's just two polls. All the evidence from recent polling is that there's a fundamental difference in outcome being generated by methodological differences [i.e. one or both of the methods are wrong], so I don't think the basic MOE statistical approach works at all."
Yes - that is another source of error so the MOEs are even larger. It just shows how misleading a single number from a small sample poll is. One needs to look at quite large ranges - even larger than the ones I'm generating using the basic MOE statistical approach to allow for errors in methodology..
Out of interest, the new Ashcroft national poll has a sample size of 558 and an MOE of 4.1% The confidence limits on Con are 31.9% to 40.1%. On Lab the limits are 25.9% to 34.1%. Either could be in the lead.
If I look at all the limits of the three polls, the confidence limits that are consistent with all three are: Con 31.9% to 35.4% Lab 33.6% to 34.1%
Problems for Labour in the West Midlands don't revolve around Cannock Chase, they concern seats like Dudley South, Halesowen, Stourbridge, Worcester, Tamworth, Stafford, Burton, Warwick&Leamington, Rugby, Redditch,
@NCPoliticsUK: ICM tables are out - seems 2010 Lib Dems (overall) have shifted slightly towards CON and away from LAB http://t.co/omb3rqc7Rf #GE2015
There isn't a consistent trend across pollsters that have Labour well down. ICM have Labour losing red liberals, Survation has Labour losing voters to UKIP and Ashcroft has Labour losing voters to the Greens.
Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very se polls.
None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
onally .
Are the LDs doing better or worse in the SW than nationally ?
None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
Uhm, in my life I have never "bigged up a subsample". Please find this post of mine on the last thread and repost it, otherwise withdraw your silly remark.
My belief that the LDs are going daaaahn in the southwest comes from the fact I am Cornish, and know a few people in Cornish politics, and plenty of Cornish voters.
Their consensus is that the LDs will be reduced to one Cornish seat: North Cornwall. It is fair to say this is likely to be repeated across the SW. Look at the NATIONAL polls!
It was your post agreeing with Pulpstar's reference to the Ashcroft sub sample , backed up by your reference to your dear old mum .
Repost it. Let's see if I personally big up a subsample. I don't, do I? So you're talking bollocks.
See the 538 prediction for the SW.
LDs to hold Torbay, Yeovil and.... that's about it.
You bigged up a sub sample of 1 , your dear old mum .
Horribly messy. No one with the right number of seats, unless the LDs agree to join Labour and the Nats (an unholy alliance which would last about two weeks)
2nd election immediately? A non government for years? Are we turning into Belgium, or Italy?
According to this, I'm registered in a tight marginal... shame my bloody ballot paper hasn't arrived yet! If it hasn't arrived today, may just have to come back to vote in person!
Horribly messy. No one with the right number of seats, unless the LDs agree to join Labour and the Nats (an unholy alliance which would last about two weeks)
2nd election immediately? A non government for years? Are we turning into Belgium, or Italy?
According to this, I'm registered in a tight marginal... shame my bloody ballot paper hasn't arrived yet! If it hasn't arrived today, may just have to come back to vote in person!
''Cameron could be heading for a majority if the 6% lead is correct and he manages to win LD marginals in the south-west.''
To do that Dave has to hold on to all his ultra con/lab marginals really doesn;t he? that Cannock Chase number shows he'll probably lose 10 even at the most optimistic.
Cannock Chase isn't the be-all and end-all of of West Midlands marginals. Seats like Stourbridge, Halesowen and Worcester are more important since there's more of them.
To engage smug mode yet again I notice the focus groups say the Jim Murphy is unpopular for being a Blairite Westminster politician with zero Scottish presence until the referendum where upon he embodied the worst of the No campaign with his shouty hectoring.
Or exactly what I and every othe Nat said back when other people were anointing him as the second coming.
@NCPoliticsUK: ICM tables are out - seems 2010 Lib Dems (overall) have shifted slightly towards CON and away from LAB http://t.co/omb3rqc7Rf #GE2015
It shows a large shift. 25% of 2010 LD voters have switched to Con compared with only 19% switching to Lab! This is 2010 LD voters we are talking about including all the red LDs.
However that is 22 voters to Con compared with 17 to Lab. Massive MOE.
Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very se polls.
None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
onally .
Are the LDs doing better or worse in the SW than nationally ?
None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
Uhm, in my life I have never "bigged up a subsample". Please find this post of mine on the last thread and repost it, otherwise withdraw your silly remark.
My belief that the LDs are going daaaahn in the southwest comes from the fact I am Cornish, and know a few people in Cornish politics, and plenty of Cornish voters.
Their consensus is that the LDs will be reduced to one Cornish seat: North Cornwall. It is fair to say this is likely to be repeated across the SW. Look at the NATIONAL polls!
It was your post agreeing with Pulpstar's reference to the Ashcroft sub sample , backed up by your reference to your dear old mum .
Repost it. Let's see if I personally big up a subsample. I don't, do I? So you're talking bollocks.
See the 538 prediction for the SW.
LDs to hold Torbay, Yeovil and.... that's about it.
Torbay very unlikely imo. Even Yeovil is in play judging by Cameron visiting there yesterday!
Cameron visited Torbay in 2010 , Marcus Wood had his photo taken with him . That went well didn't it ?
The problems for Labour in the West Midlands don't revolve around Cannock Chase, they concern seats like Dudley South, Halesowen, Stourbridge, Worcester, Tamworth, Stafford, Burton, Warwick&Leamington, Rugby, Redditch,
I'd be very surprised if Labour gain any of those. Have backed the blues in Warwick and Worcester. Ed doesn't need any of them mind.
Actually Halesowen could go. But I reckon Con hold.
Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.
If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.
I wonder if this is sinking in....
I think you will find Mr. Cameron has so antagonised the Kippers, they would not trust him with a referendum.
Yes let's face it Cameron isn't that bothered about a referendum or he would have had one. If they do form a coalition with the Lib Dems 'no referendum' will no doubt be an early concession again.
You do talk a lot of silly rubbish to each other. There currently is not a majority in parliament for a referendum. If people do not vote for a tory majority there will not be a majority in parliament for a referendum after May 7. UKIP are a bunch if dissembling troughers, they are destroying any chance of a referendum.
If the Conservative MPs had voted in favour of an EU referendum in 2011 it would have passed. Mr Cameron ordered them to vote against it.
Exactly. You can have all the Tory MPs in the world in the Commons but if your leader isn't interested in a referendum then chances are most of your MPs will follow suit.
''Cameron could be heading for a majority if the 6% lead is correct and he manages to win LD marginals in the south-west.''
To do that Dave has to hold on to all his ultra con/lab marginals really doesn;t he? that Cannock Chase number shows he'll probably lose 10 even at the most optimistic.
12 Tory seats need a swing of 1% to LAB to be red. 27 need a swing of 2%. 38 need a swing of 3%.
LordA's constituency polls and the phone polls say 3% outside of London.
In case anyone missed it before, this is the only resource I'm aware of which has all general election candidates on one page rather than having to click on individual constituencies to get the data:
If UKIP is fading on the constituency polls by phone then why not on the internet polls? Shy kippers? Even ICM had UKIP back up.
Online silver surfers who have time to do the long surveys. Doesn't necessarily mean they're wrong though to have ukip higher cos they're more likely to vote too.
Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very se polls.
None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
onally .
Are the LDs doing better or worse in the SW than nationally ?
None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
Uhm, in my life I have never "bigged up a subsample". Please find this post of mine on the last thread and repost it, otherwise withdraw your silly remark.
My belief that the LDs are going daaaahn in the southwest comes from the fact I am Cornish, and know a few people in Cornish politics, and plenty of Cornish voters.
Their consensus is that the LDs will be reduced to one Cornish seat: North Cornwall. It is fair to say this is likely to be repeated across the SW. Look at the NATIONAL polls!
It was your post agreeing with Pulpstar's reference to the Ashcroft sub sample , backed up by your reference to your dear old mum .
Repost it. Let's see if I personally big up a subsample. I don't, do I? So you're talking bollocks.
See the 538 prediction for the SW.
LDs to hold Torbay, Yeovil and.... that's about it.
Torbay very unlikely imo. Even Yeovil is in play judging by Cameron visiting there yesterday!
Cameron visited Torbay in 2010 , Marcus Wood had his photo taken with him . That went well didn't it ?
That was a year when the Lib Dems' national vote was going up, not more than halving.
''Cameron could be heading for a majority if the 6% lead is correct and he manages to win LD marginals in the south-west.''
To do that Dave has to hold on to all his ultra con/lab marginals really doesn;t he? that Cannock Chase number shows he'll probably lose 10 even at the most optimistic.
''Cameron could be heading for a majority if the 6% lead is correct and he manages to win LD marginals in the south-west.''
To do that Dave has to hold on to all his ultra con/lab marginals really doesn;t he? that Cannock Chase number shows he'll probably lose 10 even at the most optimistic.
Cannock Chase isn't the be-all and end-all of of West Midlands marginals. Seats like Stourbridge, Halesowen and Worcester are more important since there's more of them.
Won because of Staffs hospital so really an outlier then and now.
''Cameron could be heading for a majority if the 6% lead is correct and he manages to win LD marginals in the south-west.''
To do that Dave has to hold on to all his ultra con/lab marginals really doesn;t he? that Cannock Chase number shows he'll probably lose 10 even at the most optimistic.
I think Con take Morley may well please Ed M. A rival neatly disposed of. Possibly Ed B may be happy to be out of the Lab min govt too, provided he can re enter shortly.
If Labour get 260, it'll be hard for them to form the government.
But there could be an upside, for the reds. If the Conservatives are on 280 or so a second election becomes far likelier. If that happens, who gets squeezed? The key squeeze could be the SNP. And that's likely to benefit Labour.
I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.
Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?
Scotland is an eternal battle between the Arctic winds of the North Sea sweeping in over Edinburgh meeting the tropical warmth of the Gulf Stream that sweeps in over Glasgow.
Basically the east coast of Edinburgh is dry, it's the gulf stream that brings the moisture. Glasgow has almost twice the number of rain days than Edinburgh.
I pure love the Gulf Stream - if you don't love the gulf stream then take a peek at cities at a similar latitude to Glasgow or Manchester and look at what their temperature profiles look like and then you'll love the Gulf Stream too.
I don't know whether Rod and others agree but I think we're getting close to the stage where the popular vote can be called for the Tories. There are just too many polls putting them 4 or 6 points ahead for that not to happen IMO.
Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.
If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.
I wonder if this is sinking in....
I think you will find Mr. Cameron has so antagonised the Kippers, they would not trust him with a referendum.
Yes let's face it Cameron isn't that bothered about a referendum or he would have had one. If they do form a coalition with the Lib Dems 'no referendum' will no doubt be an early concession again.
You do talk a lot of silly rubbish to each other. There currently is not a majority in parliament for a referendum. If people do not vote for a tory majority there will not be a majority in parliament for a referendum after May 7. UKIP are a bunch if dissembling troughers, they are destroying any chance of a referendum.
If the Conservative MPs had voted in favour of an EU referendum in 2011 it would have passed. Mr Cameron ordered them to vote against it.
80 tories and a couple of others voted for - the rest of Parliament voted against. If the tories had been whipped to vote the other way then a similar number of tories would have voted against the whip. There was no majority in parliament.
There would be a majority for a referendum in 2017 following negotiations if we get a tory majority.
Tories still not getting their money out of having two very big name election consultants. I think Tory 2015 campaign is worse than Tory 2010 campaign.
Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very se polls.
None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
onally .
Are the LDs doing better or worse in the SW than nationally ?
None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
Repost it. Let's see if I personally big up a subsample. I don't, do I? So you're talking bollocks.
See the 538 prediction for the SW.
LDs to hold Torbay, Yeovil and.... that's about it.
Torbay very unlikely imo. Even Yeovil is in play judging by Cameron visiting there yesterday!
Cameron visited Torbay in 2010 , Marcus Wood had his photo taken with him . That went well didn't it ?
Clegg visited Rochdale a few years earlier, and had his photo taken with a notorious local 'celebrity'. That didn't turn out well either, though for very different reasons.
If UKIP is fading on the constituency polls by phone then why not on the internet polls? Shy kippers? Even ICM had UKIP back up.
Something I didn't spot till now - the Wikipedia 15-day moving average graph hasn't been updated for 3 weeks.
UKIP are on 13-14% nationally. That's consistent with, on the one hand, polling 2% in Bristol West, or Hampstead and Kilburn, or the large majority of Scottish seats, and on the other, polling 33% or above in Castle Point, Rochester, Thanet South, Thurrock, Boston, and a couple of others.
I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.
Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?
Scotland is an eternal battle between the Arctic winds of the North Sea sweeping in over Edinburgh meeting the tropical warmth of the Gulf Stream that sweeps in over Glasgow.
Basically the east coast of Edinburgh is dry, it's the gulf stream that brings the moisture. Glasgow has almost twice the number of rain days than Edinburgh.
I pure love the Gulf Stream - if you don't love the gulf stream then take a peek at cities at a similar latitude to Glasgow or Manchester and look at what their temperature profiles look like and then you'll love the Gulf Stream too.
I remember my geography teacher in school saying that the warmest place in Britain in winter was the northwest coast of Scotland, thanks to the Gulf Stream. I would have guessed the Scilly Isles, but there we are. He also went on about warm wet winter westerlies - wind.
@NCPoliticsUK: ICM tables are out - seems 2010 Lib Dems (overall) have shifted slightly towards CON and away from LAB http://t.co/omb3rqc7Rf #GE2015
It shows a large shift. 25% of 2010 LD voters have switched to Con compared with only 19% switching to Lab! This is 2010 LD voters we are talking about including all the red LDs.
However that is 22 voters to Con compared with 17 to Lab. Massive MOE.
Maybe, but it's a pattern that has been emerging over the last 6-12 months, as I've mentioned on here a few times. In today's Ashcroft National Poll the 2010 Lib Dems split by 24:19 in Labour's favour (though the net swing is smaller), which is still a tiny advantage compared to what you'd have seen earlier in the Parliament.
On Cannock Chase it's interesting that so many Labour 2010 voters say they don't know how they will vote, compared to 2010 Conservative voters. If there was a clear desire to turf Cameron out they would have no doubt. Ashcroft reallocates them to Miliband, but if they vote UKIP or Tory instead then Cannock Chase becomes a Conservative hold.
The UKIP seat polls are quite disappointing for them. I was expecting seats like Cannock Chase and Great Yarmouth to become genuine three-way marginals, but UKIP are 17 and 12 points behind, and they might even end up being third in Grimsby.
Labour source: "bemused by exuberance of my colleagues." Expects Tories to have 800k more in popular vote and Labour to get 260 seats.
800k c. = 3% lead
Labour on 260 implies Tories on about 290?
That means DICIPM
Unlikely though 260 is pretty much the minimum lab need to stop the tories. 260 + 55 scotland (doesnt matter if snp or lab) = 315 add in 4 sdlp, 1 green and 3 pc = 323 which is enough to defeat any tory block in a confidence motion. Could be less unless all LDs & DUP agree to actively support tories.
Reliabilty of anything on guido is dubious at best
Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.
If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.
I wonder if this is sinking in....
I think you will find Mr. Cameron has so antagonised the Kippers, they would not trust him with a referendum.
Yes let's face it Cameron isn't that bothered about a referendum or he would have had one. If they do form a coalition with the Lib Dems 'no referendum' will no doubt be an early concession again.
You do talk a lot of silly rubbish to each other. There currently is not a majority in parliament for a referendum. If people do not vote for a tory majority there will not be a majority in parliament for a referendum after May 7. UKIP are a bunch if dissembling troughers, they are destroying any chance of a referendum.
If the Conservative MPs had voted in favour of an EU referendum in 2011 it would have passed. Mr Cameron ordered them to vote against it.
80 tories and a couple of others voted for - the rest of Parliament voted against. If the tories had been whipped to vote the other way then a similar number of tories would have voted against the whip. There was no majority in parliament.
There would be a majority for a referendum in 2017 following negotiations if we get a tory majority.
If the Conservative MPs had voted in favour of an EU referendum in 2011, it would have passed.
You seem to be saying that Conservative MPs are so emphatically opposed to an EU referendum that they would never vote in favour of one.
At the same time you say that voting for Conservative Party candidates is the best way to get a referendum. Clearly that is not the case.
Voters in favour of an EU referendum should vote for candidates who are in favour of an EU referendum. That would only include a minority of Conservative MPs. All UKIP candidates are in favour of an EU referendum.
Comments
Here in Herts Labour got reasonably close even in rock-solid tory seats like NE Herts, hertford and Stortford etc in 1997 and 2001, and won several such as Stevenage, Welwyn Hatfield etc. Shapps' majority in WH is now >17K - but he LOST in 2005.
In 2010 Lab were often 3rd behind the LDs, suffering woefully compared to 2005. I looked at 5 now-solid Tory seats and on average labour went from 27% to 16.5% in those constituencies, and the LDs moved up into 2nd or close 3rd in 1 case. In fact Labour in absolute terms lost well over 50% of its voters since 2001 round here. NE Herts as an example - gone from 36.4% to 16.4% from 2001 to 2010.
What if that Labour vote is coming back, but uselessly? If Labour drag themselves up from 29% to ~33% nationally, how much of that is Lab voters in rural/affluent areas coming back to the fold from the LDs or from staying at home? Could this be repeated elsewhere - labour racking up SOME votes in the shires, the SW, East Anglia etc, but not winning many/any more seats there?
Any specific polling on this?
A divided right against a left where some Lib Dems fall in behind Labour.
Conservatives are successful in such seats in spite of the Cameroons.
Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?
Good national Ashcroft for tories on back of ICM but then theres Populus. Whats the story? Probably continues to be small tory lead.
There currently is not a majority in parliament for a referendum. If people do not vote for a tory majority there will not be a majority in parliament for a referendum after May 7.
UKIP are a bunch if dissembling troughers, they are destroying any chance of a referendum.
"Winter is coming..."
East Lothian is the place with the microclimate really - Dunbar for sunshine and in the days of yore seaside holidays.
Ed Miliband is just unintentionally funny, but will still probably make a fortune from it.
3% swing in E&W outside London to Labour in Tory held seats.
This week: 3%
Last week: 3%
Average since April 1st: 3%.
And the way that it is consistent is what is remarkable, and the 3% swing is what national phone pollsters say too on average in E&W.
I heard Ed's voice for the first time a couple of weeks ago. In response to being called a geek he raised his arms and said "Who cares?". He looked and sounded like the ultimate stereotypical adenoidal Jewish male.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ANP-150427MONX-Full-data-tables.pdf
The Barnett formula does not allow the Scots to fleece us of our sunshine!
Indeed I expect a lot of the SNP MPs will find London very congenial and go native fairly quickly.
Typical comment: “Boris Johnson said Ed Miliband was dangerously left wing, but I see him as being centre-right”
@NCPoliticsUK: ICM tables are out - seems 2010 Lib Dems (overall) have shifted slightly towards CON and away from LAB http://t.co/omb3rqc7Rf #GE2015
http://www.bitly.com/Xb3122
Basically MOE is a polite fiction - the statistical MOE should be smaller than mathematically expected but the methodological MOE (which the pollsters don't like to talk about as much) is much larger.
One or other method (or both) is currently, almost certainly, wrong.
It's more of a warning light to ICM methods.
To do that Dave has to hold on to all his ultra con/lab marginals really doesn;t he? that Cannock Chase number shows he'll probably lose 10 even at the most optimistic.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8847123/EU-referendum-how-the-MPs-voted.html
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ANP-150427MONX-Full-data-tables.pdf
Or exactly what I and every othe Nat said back when other people were anointing him as the second coming.
Labour source: "bemused by exuberance of my colleagues." Expects Tories to have 800k more in popular vote and Labour to get 260 seats.
800k c. = 3% lead
However that is 22 voters to Con compared with 17 to Lab. Massive MOE.
Actually Halesowen could go. But I reckon Con hold.
Something I didn't spot till now - the Wikipedia 15-day moving average graph hasn't been updated for 3 weeks.
27 need a swing of 2%.
38 need a swing of 3%.
LordA's constituency polls and the phone polls say 3% outside of London.
Halifax, Bolton W, Itchen, Northfield, Gower, and on a dream day for the Tories, Morley - neither especially likely, but 1/5 isn't impossible.
I'm surprised, living nearby in Bury N, to see that there's so little Con activity in Bolton NE - though lots in Bolton W.
But there could be an upside, for the reds. If the Conservatives are on 280 or so a second election becomes far likelier. If that happens, who gets squeezed? The key squeeze could be the SNP. And that's likely to benefit Labour.
Basically the east coast of Edinburgh is dry, it's the gulf stream that brings the moisture. Glasgow has almost twice the number of rain days than Edinburgh.
I pure love the Gulf Stream - if you don't love the gulf stream then take a peek at cities at a similar latitude to Glasgow or Manchester and look at what their temperature profiles look like and then you'll love the Gulf Stream too.
Interesting.
I've seen articles tipping up Hampstead and Kilburn (mansion tax) and South Stoke (big lab to kipper swing).
For what its worth.
There would be a majority for a referendum in 2017 following negotiations if we get a tory majority.
But is it a case of "May Day! May Day!" for Labour or the Tories?
306-1=305 Tory seats without scotland.
260-217= 43 Lab gains: 10 from LD, 33 from CON.
305-33=272
272+10 LD gains= 282 without any small UKIP loses.
Tories either need to gain 20 seats from the LD (impossible).
Or the SNP has to gain 6 seats less from Labour (very unlikely).
On Cannock Chase it's interesting that so many Labour 2010 voters say they don't know how they will vote, compared to 2010 Conservative voters. If there was a clear desire to turf Cameron out they would have no doubt. Ashcroft reallocates them to Miliband, but if they vote UKIP or Tory instead then Cannock Chase becomes a Conservative hold.
The UKIP seat polls are quite disappointing for them. I was expecting seats like Cannock Chase and Great Yarmouth to become genuine three-way marginals, but UKIP are 17 and 12 points behind, and they might even end up being third in Grimsby.
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-04-27/brown-miliband-emerging-with-great-stature-as-a-leader/
Brown gives Miliband the vote of confidence.
Reliabilty of anything on guido is dubious at best
You seem to be saying that Conservative MPs are so emphatically opposed to an EU referendum that they would never vote in favour of one.
At the same time you say that voting for Conservative Party candidates is the best way to get a referendum. Clearly that is not the case.
Voters in favour of an EU referendum should vote for candidates who are in favour of an EU referendum. That would only include a minority of Conservative MPs. All UKIP candidates are in favour of an EU referendum.