If Labour actually make 260 that implies that possibly a handful of Tory marginals stayed unexpectedly Blue - just four such seats, in fact, for Tories to reach 290.
538 will be correct only IF the SNP does much worse than predicted and IF the LD do much worse than predicted against the Tories. 2 very big IF's equals no way.
Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.
If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.
I wonder if this is sinking in....
I think you will find Mr. Cameron has so antagonised the Kippers, they would not trust him with a referendum.
Yes let's face it Cameron isn't that bothered about a referendum or he would have had one. If they do form a coalition with the Lib Dems 'no referendum' will no doubt be an early concession again.
You do talk a lot of silly rubbish to each other. There currently is not a majority in parliament for a referendum. If people do not vote for a tory majority there will not be a majority in parliament for a referendum after May 7. UKIP are a bunch if dissembling troughers, they are destroying any chance of a referendum.
If the Conservative MPs had voted in favour of an EU referendum in 2011 it would have passed. Mr Cameron ordered them to vote against it.
80 tories and a couple of others voted for - the rest of Parliament voted against. If the tories had been whipped to vote the other way then a similar number of tories would have voted against the whip. There was no majority in parliament.
There would be a majority for a referendum in 2017 following negotiations if we get a tory majority.
If the Conservative MPs had voted in favour of an EU referendum in 2011, it would have passed.
You seem to be saying that Conservative MPs are so emphatically opposed to an EU referendum that they would never vote in favour of one.
At the same time you say that voting for Conservative Party candidates is the best way to get a referendum. Clearly that is not the case.
Voters in favour of an EU referendum should vote for candidates who are in favour of an EU referendum. That would only include a minority of Conservative MPs. All UKIP candidates are in favour of an EU referendum.
At any rate, it implies that even if there were a whipped vote in favour of an EU referendum, a substantial minority of Conservative MPs would rebel.
If Labour actually make 260 that implies that possibly a handful of Tory marginals stayed unexpectedly Blue - just four such seats, in fact, for Tories to reach 290.
I seem to remember 538 didn't do very well last time in their predictions.
If Labour actually make 260 that implies that possibly a handful of Tory marginals stayed unexpectedly Blue - just four such seats, in fact, for Tories to reach 290.
I seemed to remember 538 didn't do very well last time in their predictions.
They are just using a slightly out of date Hanretty this time.
If UKIP is fading on the constituency polls by phone then why not on the internet polls? Shy kippers? Even ICM had UKIP back up.
Something I didn't spot till now - the Wikipedia 15-day moving average graph hasn't been updated for 3 weeks.
Looking at the constituent parts of Ashcroft and ICM polls and then Opinium and Populus, it appears that the phone polls reach more full time workers, while internet polls get many more economically inactive (incl. students) respondents.
I know they're weighted, but they're talking to different demographics.
@NCPoliticsUK: ICM tables are out - seems 2010 Lib Dems (overall) have shifted slightly towards CON and away from LAB http://t.co/omb3rqc7Rf #GE2015
It shows a large shift. 25% of 2010 LD voters have switched to Con compared with only 19% switching to Lab! This is 2010 LD voters we are talking about including all the red LDs.
However that is 22 voters to Con compared with 17 to Lab. Massive MOE.
Maybe, but it's a pattern that has been emerging over the last 6-12 months, as I've mentioned on here a few times. In today's Ashcroft National Poll the 2010 Lib Dems split by 24:19 in Labour's favour (though the net swing is smaller), which is still a tiny advantage compared to what you'd have seen earlier in the Parliament.
On Cannock Chase it's interesting that so many Labour 2010 voters say they don't know how they will vote, compared to 2010 Conservative voters. If there was a clear desire to turf Cameron out they would have no doubt. Ashcroft reallocates them to Miliband, but if they vote UKIP or Tory instead then Cannock Chase becomes a Conservative hold.
The UKIP seat polls are quite disappointing for them. I was expecting seats like Cannock Chase and Great Yarmouth to become genuine three-way marginals, but UKIP are 17 and 12 points behind, and they might even end up being third in Grimsby.
YouGov's Nowcast has Great Grimsby as a UKIP/Lab tie "too close to call"
Great Yarmouth a three way tie "leaning conservative"
Cannock Chase 'leaning Labour', with UKIP/Con tied in close 2nd.
Labour source: "bemused by exuberance of my colleagues." Expects Tories to have 800k more in popular vote and Labour to get 260 seats.
800k c. = 3% lead
Labour on 260 implies Tories on about 290?
That means DICIPM
There is no way for Labour to be on 260 and the Tories to be on 290.
If Lab are on 260, that means about 33 Lab gains from Con, putting Con on about 280 seats.
That is quite possible. If it happens, Con can't survive a motion of no confidence, even with LD and UKIP help.
However Lab can survive a motion of no confidence with help from SNP and abstinence from LDs (who won't want a second election and neither will the SNP).
It will be an interesting Parliament because legislation will only pass with the support of SNP and LDs (or Con on Trident). There will be no EU referendum. There will be increased taxes on the wealthy and more spending on the NHS, but the overall amount of legislation will be greatly reduced to relief all round. I think it will be an outstanding Parliament.
If Labour actually make 260 that implies that possibly a handful of Tory marginals stayed unexpectedly Blue - just four such seats, in fact, for Tories to reach 290.
I seem to remember 538 didn't do very well last time in their predictions.
Yes they were embarrassingly crap last time, which is why they've just imported a UK model (Election Forecast) this time.
If UKIP is fading on the constituency polls by phone then why not on the internet polls? Shy kippers? Even ICM had UKIP back up.
Something I didn't spot till now - the Wikipedia 15-day moving average graph hasn't been updated for 3 weeks.
Looking at the constituent parts of Ashcroft and ICM polls and then Opinium and Populus, it appears that the phone polls reach more full time workers, while internet polls get many more economically inactive (incl. students) respondents.
I know they're weighted, but they're talking to different demographics.
There will be increased taxes on the wealthy and more spending on the NHS, but the overall amount of legislation will be greatly reduced to relief all round. I think it will be an outstanding Parliament.
And a dramatic reduction in tax take, interest rate rises and another economic crisis.
@NCPoliticsUK: ICM tables are out - seems 2010 Lib Dems (overall) have shifted slightly towards CON and away from LAB http://t.co/omb3rqc7Rf #GE2015
It shows a large shift. 25% of 2010 LD voters have switched to Con compared with only 19% switching to Lab! This is 2010 LD voters we are talking about including all the red LDs.
However that is 22 voters to Con compared with 17 to Lab. Massive MOE.
Maybe, but it's a pattern that has been emerging over the last 6-12 months, as I've mentioned on here a few times. In today's Ashcroft National Poll the 2010 Lib Dems split by 24:19 in Labour's favour (though the net swing is smaller), which is still a tiny advantage compared to what you'd have seen earlier in the Parliament.
On Cannock Chase it's interesting that so many Labour 2010 voters say they don't know how they will vote, compared to 2010 Conservative voters. If there was a clear desire to turf Cameron out they would have no doubt. Ashcroft reallocates them to Miliband, but if they vote UKIP or Tory instead then Cannock Chase becomes a Conservative hold.
The UKIP seat polls are quite disappointing for them. I was expecting seats like Cannock Chase and Great Yarmouth to become genuine three-way marginals, but UKIP are 17 and 12 points behind, and they might even end up being third in Grimsby.
YouGov's Nowcast has Great Grimsby as a UKIP/Lab tie "too close to call"
Great Yarmouth a three way tie "leaning conservative"
Cannock Chase 'leaning Labour', with UKIP/Con tied in close 2nd.
Castle Point 'too close to call'. Con/UKIP tie.
That's based on their national polls, so for them to fall short of that in constituency specific polling is disappointing, as I said.
Perhaps the Ashcroft constituency polls will prove to be inaccurate. Not long to find out.
Tories still not getting their money out of having two very big name election consultants. I think Tory 2015 campaign is worse than Tory 2010 campaign.
And Lab's is infinitely better than 2010 - no Elvis! No Gillian Duffy
I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.
Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?
Scotland is an eternal battle between the Arctic winds of the North Sea sweeping in over Edinburgh meeting the tropical warmth of the Gulf Stream that sweeps in over Glasgow.
Basically the east coast of Edinburgh is dry, it's the gulf stream that brings the moisture. Glasgow has almost twice the number of rain days than Edinburgh.
I pure love the Gulf Stream - if you don't love the gulf stream then take a peek at cities at a similar latitude to Glasgow or Manchester and look at what their temperature profiles look like and then you'll love the Gulf Stream too.
I remember my geography teacher in school saying that the warmest place in Britain in winter was the northwest coast of Scotland, thanks to the Gulf Stream. I would have guessed the Scilly Isles, but there we are. He also went on about warm wet winter westerlies - wind.
It's also bollocks. Warmest place in winter in UK (excluding the Channel Isles) would be a protected, riverside village in southern Cornwall or, as you say, the Scillies.
Somewhere like Flushing or Mylor would be a good bet, as they get less wind than the Scillies.
Gardener's Question Time were in Dartmouth recently and identified it as being particularly favoured for mild winters.
There's the famous satellite picture of the UK blanketed in snow in December 2010 which has one green spot - Weymouth, saved by the Fohn effect.
Its places like Grimsby where the UKIP vote is going to gift the election to the SNP.
Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.
If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.
Tories now begging kippers to vote for them , how desperate
Indeed. I couldn't care less if Labour get into government. Long term it could be quite useful to win over Red Kippers.
Plus once they destroy the economy there will be lots of cheap assets to buy.
My view is vote Conservative where UKIP is clearly out of the running, and it's a close contest between Con/Lab or Con/Lib Dem. Vote UKIP everywhere else.
I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.
Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?
Scotland is an eternal battle between the Arctic winds of the North Sea sweeping in over Edinburgh meeting the tropical warmth of the Gulf Stream that sweeps in over Glasgow.
Basically the east coast of Edinburgh is dry, it's the gulf stream that brings the moisture. Glasgow has almost twice the number of rain days than Edinburgh.
I pure love the Gulf Stream - if you don't love the gulf stream then take a peek at cities at a similar latitude to Glasgow or Manchester and look at what their temperature profiles look like and then you'll love the Gulf Stream too.
I remember my geography teacher in school saying that the warmest place in Britain in winter was the northwest coast of Scotland, thanks to the Gulf Stream. I would have guessed the Scilly Isles, but there we are. He also went on about warm wet winter westerlies - wind.
It's also bollocks. Warmest place in winter in UK (excluding the Channel Isles) would be a protected, riverside village in southern Cornwall or, as you say, the Scillies.
Somewhere like Flushing or Mylor would be a good bet, as they get less wind than the Scillies.
Its places like Grimsby where the UKIP vote is going to gift the election to the SNP.
Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.
If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.
Tories now begging kippers to vote for them , how desperate
Indeed. I couldn't care less if Labour get into government. Long term it could be quite useful to win over Red Kippers.
Plus once they destroy the economy there will be lots of cheap assets to buy.
My view is vote Conservative where UKIP is clearly out of the running, and it's a close contest between Con/Lab or Con/Lib Dem. Vote UKIP everywhere else.
The problem with Farage saying vote Conservative where UKIP can't win is that the average bod in Great Grimsby will have zero perception of an Ashcroft poll and will just hear "Vote Conservative to stop Labour". The media have twisted his words and so forth on this, but I fear he's overestimated the intelligence of the average voter.
Today's conclusion is that ukip are set to get 3 max.,Clacton nailed on,Thanet South where 7-1 on Lab looks big and Thurrock which looks vulnerable to Lab at 11-4.1-3 ukip seats has been my long-term spread and I see no reason to lay off.
Today's conclusion is that ukip are set to get 3 max.,Clacton nailed on,Thanet South where 7-1 on Lab looks big and Thurrock which looks vulnerable to Lab at 11-4.1-3 ukip seats has been my long-term spread and I see no reason to lay off.
Mine is a hill, starting at 1 - peaking at 3-4 and on a slope down to 7.
I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.
Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?
Scotland is an eternal battle between the Arctic winds of the North Sea sweeping in over Edinburgh meeting the tropical warmth of the Gulf Stream that sweeps in over Glasgow.
Basically the east coast of Edinburgh is dry, it's the gulf stream that brings the moisture. Glasgow has almost twice the number of rain days than Edinburgh.
I pure love the Gulf Stream - if you don't love the gulf stream then take a peek at cities at a similar latitude to Glasgow or Manchester and look at what their temperature profiles look like and then you'll love the Gulf Stream too.
I remember my geography teacher in school saying that the warmest place in Britain in winter was the northwest coast of Scotland, thanks to the Gulf Stream. I would have guessed the Scilly Isles, but there we are. He also went on about warm wet winter westerlies - wind.
It's also bollocks. Warmest place in winter in UK (excluding the Channel Isles) would be a protected, riverside village in southern Cornwall or, as you say, the Scillies.
Somewhere like Flushing or Mylor would be a good bet, as they get less wind than the Scillies.
Gardener's Question Time were in Dartmouth recently and identified it as being particularly favoured for mild winters.
There's the famous satellite picture of the UK blanketed in snow in December 2010 which has one green spot - Weymouth, saved by the Fohn effect.
A story for you on that topic. My grandparents moved to Dartmouth in 1970 because they'd heard about the supposedly mild winters; they bought a house on the top of the hill overlooking the valley. Unfortunately they found that the mild temperatures in winter were mostly cancelled out by the strong winds so it actually felt just as cold as anywhere else. They hadn't bargained on the fact that of course the official temperature figures don't usually include wind-chill.
Their response to this setback was to move to the Isle of Man a couple of years later, where exactly the same thing happened again. Mild temperatures but with a strong wind-chill factor. (They had to stay on the island because unfortunately they'd exhausted their funds by then).
I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.
Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?
Scotland is an eternal battle between the Arctic winds of the North Sea sweeping in over Edinburgh meeting the tropical warmth of the Gulf Stream that sweeps in over Glasgow.
Basically the east coast of Edinburgh is dry, it's the gulf stream that brings the moisture. Glasgow has almost twice the number of rain days than Edinburgh.
I pure love the Gulf Stream - if you don't love the gulf stream then take a peek at cities at a similar latitude to Glasgow or Manchester and look at what their temperature profiles look like and then you'll love the Gulf Stream too.
I remember my geography teacher in school saying that the warmest place in Britain in winter was the northwest coast of Scotland, thanks to the Gulf Stream. I would have guessed the Scilly Isles, but there we are. He also went on about warm wet winter westerlies - wind.
It's also bollocks. Warmest place in winter in UK (excluding the Channel Isles) would be a protected, riverside village in southern Cornwall or, as you say, the Scillies.
Somewhere like Flushing or Mylor would be a good bet, as they get less wind than the Scillies.
Gardener's Question Time were in Dartmouth recently and identified it as being particularly favoured for mild winters.
There's the famous satellite picture of the UK blanketed in snow in December 2010 which has one green spot - Weymouth, saved by the Fohn effect.
That southwest coast of Devon is exquisite. I went to Salcombe for the first time a few weeks ago. The sun shone, the seafood was great, it was like a friendlier version of the nicest part of Britttany.
My grandmother owned a three bedroom cottage overlooking Salcombe Estuary, where we had some wonderful holidays. She sold it in 1980 for £39,000. Its value now, particularly after the demolition of a gasometer which partly spoiled the view? About £2m.
The Coast Road from Salcombe to Dartmouth must be one of the most beautiful in the world.
Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.
If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.
I wonder if this is sinking in....
I think you will find Mr. Cameron has so antagonised the Kippers, they would not trust him with a referendum.
Yes let's face it Cameron isn't that bothered about a referendum or he would have had one. If they do form a coalition with the Lib Dems 'no referendum' will no doubt be an early concession again.
You do talk a lot of silly rubbish to each other. There currently is not a majority in parliament for a referendum. If people do not vote for a tory majority there will not be a majority in parliament for a referendum after May 7. UKIP are a bunch if dissembling troughers, they are destroying any chance of a referendum.
If the Conservative MPs had voted in favour of an EU referendum in 2011 it would have passed. Mr Cameron ordered them to vote against it.
80 tories and a couple of others voted for - the rest of Parliament voted against. If the tories had been whipped to vote the other way then a similar number of tories would have voted against the whip. There was no majority in parliament.
There would be a majority for a referendum in 2017 following negotiations if we get a tory majority.
If the Conservative MPs had voted in favour of an EU referendum in 2011, it would have passed.
You seem to be saying that Conservative MPs are so emphatically opposed to an EU referendum that they would never vote in favour of one.
At the same time you say that voting for Conservative Party candidates is the best way to get a referendum. Clearly that is not the case.
Voters in favour of an EU referendum should vote for candidates who are in favour of an EU referendum. That would only include a minority of Conservative MPs. All UKIP candidates are in favour of an EU referendum.
It is important that an attempt at renegotiation is made. Brussels has to be made to take notice and it would give the basis for an informed decision for many non-frothers. Also, the vote in the HoC should be based on a government motion, not a private members' bill.
I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.
Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?
Scotland is an eternal battle between the Arctic winds of the North Sea sweeping in over Edinburgh meeting the tropical warmth of the Gulf Stream that sweeps in over Glasgow.
Basically the east coast of Edinburgh is dry, it's the gulf stream that brings the moisture. Glasgow has almost twice the number of rain days than Edinburgh.
in Britain in winter was the northwest coast of Scotland, thanks to the Gulf Stream. I would have guessed the Scilly Isles, but there we are. He also went on about warm wet winter westerlies - wind.
It's also bollocks. Warmest place in winter in UK (excluding the Channel Isles) would be a protected, riverside village in southern Cornwall or, as you say, the Scillies.
Somewhere like Flushing or Mylor would be a good bet, as they get less wind than the Scillies.
Gardener's Question Time were in Dartmouth recently and identified it as being particularly favoured for mild winters.
There's the famous satellite picture of the UK blanketed in snow in December 2010 which has one green spot - Weymouth, saved by the Fohn effect.
A story for you on that topic. My grandparents moved to Dartmouth in 1970 because they'd heard about the supposedly mild winters; they bought a house on the top of the hill overlooking the valley. Unfortunately they found that the mild temperatures were mostly cancelled out by the strong winds so it actually felt just as cold as anywhere else. They hadn't bargained on the fact that of course the official temperature figures don't usually include wind-chill.
Their response to this setback was to move to the Isle of Man a couple of years later, where exactly the same thing happened again. Mild temperatures but with a strong wind-chill factor. (They had to stay on the island because unfortunately they'd exhausted their funds by then).
The area has its own microclimate which enables all kinds of tropical plants to flourish. The gardens at Sharpitor and Compton Fishacre are well worth visiting.
When it was corrected for Won't Vote, Don't Know etc it reduced to 558. The % shares are based on 558 people. See Table 3.
But Ashcroft sampled 1,003 people in total (that's the number we use on Wikipedia).
Actually 558 excludes the correction for 2010 DK/Refused.
But the main point is - the MOE is huge. Partly small sample size, partly use of corrections and other unknown biases of the methods being used.
That's why one shouldn't get over-excited at individual polls. (I know you don't Sunil). And it's why individual polls rarely move markets much (though I know one did in Scotland).
As a new poster, I’d like to gloss over my own biases and just give my day 1 opinion on the current state of the whole election. To start GE2010 delivered an outcome that mirrored public opinion in almost too precise way in terms of what was granted and denied to each party for FPTP. To me a big enough pool of jaded swing voters in enough marginals had a good gut feeling on who they needed to thwart or advance in their own seats. What side to take in a battle is perhaps where most people's sense of risk is most reliable. GE2015 also now looks to need a precise outcome. For a good time the polls have reflected simply the desire to deny every single party what they want: Lab/Con well short of a majority, LD denied the balance. Pools of Lab/Con voters have moved back and forth from other parties, meaning if one party looked to pull ahead, a counter move would quickly rebalance things. No issue could cut this bungee cord, only a catastrophic blunder or another ball. Thus the Tories throwing the SNP into the mix - this has changed the narrative: deny SNP balance IS the higher priority for jaded swing, deny LD less so. But this first requires one the main two parties to get much closer to majority. The Tories have tried to own that narrative, ignoring that Labour could also get closer. It might just be working, but it now needs to do so in a convincing enough way the electorate, looking for a winner, can see Con are ahead and make the lead stick. If Con can't do that, the danger increases of a Labour counter-swing over the BH weekend. Basically, next goal wins, with the Tories needing to capitalise soon. If a 0-0 draw by next Thursday, the possibility of a very late LD surge. I 've no idea which might happen, just when they might. So, the paradox of the SNP effect could be that a stable coalition is more up for grabs than in a while. GE prediction - one side winning by 4% or a near dead heat in which LD surprise is more likely than a 2 % win. The polls themselves are key to signalling a likely winner but they still aren’t settling down. Ironic that the Sun’s pollster maintains a Labour lead! Is it fanciful that we are already seeing in the polls a desire to get a clear seats winner, but that the pools of responders aligned to each pollster follow their own polls more closely and solidify whatever party they see lead, resulting in two opposing sets of polls? Are the house effects reinforcing themselves?
@NCPoliticsUK: ICM tables are out - seems 2010 Lib Dems (overall) have shifted slightly towards CON and away from LAB http://t.co/omb3rqc7Rf #GE2015
It shows a large shift. 25% of 2010 LD voters have switched to Con compared with only 19% switching to Lab! This is 2010 LD voters we are talking about including all the red LDs.
However that is 22 voters to Con compared with 17 to Lab. Massive MOE.
Maybe, but it's a pattern that has been emerging over the last 6-12 months, as I've mentioned on here a few times. In today's Ashcroft National Poll the 2010 Lib Dems split by 24:19 in Labour's favour (though the net swing is smaller), which is still a tiny advantage compared to what you'd have seen earlier in the Parliament.
On Cannock Chase it's interesting that so many Labour 2010 voters say they don't know how they will vote, compared to 2010 Conservative voters. If there was a clear desire to turf Cameron out they would have no doubt. Ashcroft reallocates them to Miliband, but if they vote UKIP or Tory instead then Cannock Chase becomes a Conservative hold.
The UKIP seat polls are quite disappointing for them. I was expecting seats like Cannock Chase and Great Yarmouth to become genuine three-way marginals, but UKIP are 17 and 12 points behind, and they might even end up being third in Grimsby.
YouGov's Nowcast has Great Grimsby as a UKIP/Lab tie "too close to call"
Great Yarmouth a three way tie "leaning conservative"
Cannock Chase 'leaning Labour', with UKIP/Con tied in close 2nd.
Castle Point 'too close to call'. Con/UKIP tie.
That's based on their national polls
Apparently not.
"[YouGov Nowcast] ... It makes use of over 150,000 interviews that have never before been published, using a special two-stage voting intention question that tends to be better at teasing out local tactical voting patterns. It will be supplemented by around 5,000 new interviews every day until election day.
Using the latest statistical techniques, our data team led by Stanford Professor Doug Rivers (YouGov's Chief Scientist) has developed a model that combines the not insignificant number of panelists we have in each constituency (typically between 200 and 500 involved in this study) with imputed results from regional patterns based on detailed demographics, income, ethnicity, work type and of course past voting intention. With this uniquely large dataset, we believe this represents the best available estimate of the current state of the race."
I don't think even todays polls have told me anything different from the outset. That the Tories will probably win on about 34%-32% (Lab) of the popular vote, and maybe 10-15 marginals will dictate whether the Tories win 275-290 seats. Plus there will be some surprises, but which will cancel each other out- an unexpected Tory gain, UKIP gain and Labour gain.
Out of all the pollsters, I hope Ashcroft falls on his arse, and sods off back to Belize with his dosh. I find the way he has made himself a central figure in this campaign grating to say the least.
The Locus adjusted poll of polls today is 35-30-10-14. This gives Con 302 Lab 259, i.e. virtually a standstill from 2010, except of course that there'll only be around 16 LD MPs. Still, unless Ed does something soon, I think Dave's back in.
When it was corrected for Won't Vote, Don't Know etc it reduced to 558. The % shares are based on 558 people. See Table 3.
But Ashcroft sampled 1,003 people in total (that's the number we use on Wikipedia).
Actually 558 excludes the correction for 2010 DK/Refused.
But the main point is - the MOE is huge. Partly small sample size, partly use of corrections and other unknown biases of the methods being used.
That's why one shouldn't get over-excited at individual polls. (I know you don't Sunil). And it's why individual polls rarely move markets much (though I know one did in Scotland).
But it is indeed the case that most pollsters use sample size of ~1000-1200.
Ashcroft ComRes (phone) Survation ICM Ipsos MORI TNS Panelbase
Only Opinium, Populus and YouGov (and ComRes, online) have really hefty samples above 1500 or so.
How much bigger than Ashcroft was ICM's total sample size today? 1 respondent!
Its places like Grimsby where the UKIP vote is going to gift the election to the SNP.
Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.
If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.
Tories now begging kippers to vote for them , how desperate
Surely they've been begging Kippers to vote for them for 5 years, I don't think it's that new a thing in response to desperation. Oh, they're desperate alright, but this isn't a new sign of it.
I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.
Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?
Scotland is an eternal battle between the Arctic winds of the North Sea sweeping in over Edinburgh meeting the tropical warmth of the Gulf Stream that sweeps in over Glasgow.
Basically the east coast of Edinburgh is dry, it's the gulf stream that brings the moisture. Glasgow has almost twice the number of rain days than Edinburgh.
I pure love the Gulf Stream - if you don't love the gulf stream then take a peek at cities at a similar latitude to Glasgow or Manchester and look at what their temperature profiles look like and then you'll love the Gulf Stream too.
I remember my geography teacher in school saying that the warmest place in Britain in winter was the northwest coast of Scotland, thanks to the Gulf Stream. I would have guessed the Scilly Isles, but there we are. He also went on about warm wet winter westerlies - wind.
It's also bollocks. Warmest place in winter in UK (excluding the Channel Isles) would be a protected, riverside village in southern Cornwall or, as you say, the Scillies.
Somewhere like Flushing or Mylor would be a good bet, as they get less wind than the Scillies.
Gardener's Question Time were in Dartmouth recently and identified it as being particularly favoured for mild winters.
There's the famous satellite picture of the UK blanketed in snow in December 2010 which has one green spot - Weymouth, saved by the Fohn effect.
That southwest coast of Devon is exquisite. I went to Salcombe for the first time a few weeks ago. The sun shone, the seafood was great, it was like a friendlier version of the nicest part of Britttany.
The Coast Road from Salcombe to Dartmouth must be one of the most beautiful in the world.
Yeah. I can believe it. I was so taken with Salcombe and environs I checked some of the local property prices.
Wow. Up there with London.
My grandmother sold it on the transparently selfish ground that she was getting old and could no longer tolerate the winters down there (it was much more isolated then than it is now). At no point did she consider the wishes of her heirs.
It is important that an attempt at renegotiation is made. Brussels has to be made to take notice and it would give the basis for an informed decision for many non-frothers. Also, the vote in the HoC should be based on a government motion, not a private members' bill.
A substantial renegotiation by 2017 is impossible, so any purported renegotiation would be an exercise in dishonesty, not a genuine means of informing public opinion. Private members' bills and government bills have the same legal effect once passed.
The Locus adjusted poll of polls today is 35-30-10-14. This gives Con 302 Lab 259, i.e. virtually a standstill from 2010, except of course that there'll only be around 16 LD MPs. Still, unless Ed does something soon, I think Dave's back in.
Yep, it's Dave again. Pity his heart isn't in it, would rather be mooching around Witney / Tuscany / Cornwall.
A substantial renegotiation by 2017 is impossible, so any purported renegotiation would be an exercise in dishonesty, not a genuine means of informing public opinion.
By the same reasoning so would any claims by the Out camp as to what we would negotiate if we left the EU (a negotiation which wouldn't even have started).
Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells · 53m53 minutes ago @tnewtondunn@Sunil_P2@YouGov there's no partisan effect from the change [in YouGov methodology], it's just to reduce volatility.
We are in for a very rocky period if Labour are a clear second in the seat count and Labour + SNP > Conservatives. Whatever government we get afterwards, a large section of the public will consider it a fix.
The Locus adjusted poll of polls today is 35-30-10-14. This gives Con 302 Lab 259, i.e. virtually a standstill from 2010, except of course that there'll only be around 16 LD MPs. Still, unless Ed does something soon, I think Dave's back in.
Yep, it's Dave again. Pity his heart isn't in it, would rather be mooching around Witney / Tuscany / Cornwall.
I presume you didn't see him yesterday in Yeovil on Sky. He may or may not win but the meme that he is really not that bothered is absurd.
Been thinking about the tories FPTP "vote efficiency" problem, and turning it round to potentially being a problem for Labour now.
Here in Herts Labour got reasonably close even in rock-solid tory seats like NE Herts, hertford and Stortford etc in 1997 and 2001, and won several such as Stevenage, Welwyn Hatfield etc. Shapps' majority in WH is now >17K - but he LOST in 2005.
In 2010 Lab were often 3rd behind the LDs, suffering woefully compared to 2005. I looked at 5 now-solid Tory seats and on average labour went from 27% to 16.5% in those constituencies, and the LDs moved up into 2nd or close 3rd in 1 case. In fact Labour in absolute terms lost well over 50% of its voters since 2001 round here. NE Herts as an example - gone from 36.4% to 16.4% from 2001 to 2010.
What if that Labour vote is coming back, but uselessly? If Labour drag themselves up from 29% to ~33% nationally, how much of that is Lab voters in rural/affluent areas coming back to the fold from the LDs or from staying at home? Could this be repeated elsewhere - labour racking up SOME votes in the shires, the SW, East Anglia etc, but not winning many/any more seats there?
Any specific polling on this?
Ed doesn't really need much Labour vote to come back - the Tory vote being cut to ribbons by UKIP will hand him handfuls of seats on a plate, as today's Ashcroft polls confirm - the Tories would be romping home in 2010 marginals like Cannock without UKIP but they are on a knife edge and Labour will get many of these back by default of Tory "ultras" deciding to vote UKIP regardless of the costs.
55% of Brits expect the government should be led by the party with the most seats, only 34% accept that a larger Coalition of smaller parties should lead.
THIS is why it would be crazy for Miliband to gang up with the Nats and outvote a larger Tory party. Just because it is doable does not mean it is acceptable to the voters.
It will be interesting to see how people react to it, given those views. I do think the word legitimate is a bit wrong on the reliance on SNP MPs - it's not a question of whether it is legitimate for me, because it is legitimate, just whether an avowed nationalist party would be able to act in the best interests of the entire UK;hopefully they will surprise us(and hopefully that comment will stop someone jumping down my throat for voicing the concern; please also see my compliment to the SNP below) - but there's a lot that is allowable and is even likely that significant numbers may have concerns with yet won't vote to prevent happening.
I think it depends on how bold the SNP go in any agreement - heard some interesting views from some people today who think Miliband should play hard ball and dare them to vote him out, which would be fascinating to see - and if they are smart, and they have proven themselves to be so, then that high proportion of people who think the largest party should form the government may not get as riled up as some might fear.
I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.
Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?
m too.
I remember my geography teacher in school saying that the warmest place in Britain in winter was the northwest coast of Scotland, thanks to the Gulf Stream. I would have guessed the Scilly Isles, but there we are. He also went on about warm wet winter westerlies - wind.
It's also bollocks. Warmest place in winter in UK (excluding the Channel Isles) would be a protected, riverside village in southern Cornwall or, as you say, the Scillies.
Somewhere like Flushing or Mylor would be a good bet, as they get less wind than the Scillies.
Gardener's Question Time were in Dartmouth recently and identified it as being particularly favoured for mild winters.
There's the famous satellite picture of the UK blanketed in snow in December 2010 which has one green spot - Weymouth, saved by the Fohn effect.
A story for you on that topic. My grandparents moved to Dartmouth in 1970 because they'd heard about the supposedly mild winters; they bought a house on the top of the hill overlooking the valley. Unfortunately they found that the mild temperatures were mostly cancelled out by the strong winds so it actually felt just as cold as anywhere else. Their response to this was to move to the Isle of Man a couple of years later, where exactly the same thing happened again. Mild temperatures but with a strong wind-chill factor. (They had to stay on the island because unfortunately they'd exhausted their funds by then).
That's why I suspect a sheltered riverside village in Cornwall will probably be warmer than the Scillies. The Scillies are exposed, the southern creeks of Cornwall are protected.
It also helps that places like Restronguet or Mawnan or Helford are stunningly lovely.
A substantial renegotiation by 2017 is impossible, so any purported renegotiation would be an exercise in dishonesty, not a genuine means of informing public opinion.
By the same reasoning so would any claims by the Out camp as to what we would negotiate if we left the EU (a negotiation which wouldn't even have started).
Life is full of uncertainties. Get used to it.
False equivalence. Why am I not surprised?
Cameron is claiming he will have a settled renegotiation by 2017. This is an outright lie. No Outer is making a claim that everything would be settled in our favour until - or even after - we had left.
Cameron is the one who has set an unachievable deadline. Anyone supporting that deadline is either stupid or dishonest.
Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells · 53m53 minutes ago @tnewtondunn@Sunil_P2@YouGov there's no partisan effect from the change [in YouGov methodology], it's just to reduce volatility.
But Mr Wells, intentions and outcomes are two separate things.
Some here do think a reasonably likely result is Con-Lib Coalition part 2.
I think that Mr (Ms?) Rata is saying that despite all its flaws and inadequacies, FPTP does tend to actually reflect the will of the public fairly well, and I agree.
In 2010 the country wanted rid of Labour but did not want the Tories completely off the lead. This time they are unconvinced by either party, and want both sides on a lead, and to finally settle a few constitutional issues relating to devolution. It looks as if it is on the cards too.
Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells · 53m53 minutes ago @tnewtondunn@Sunil_P2@YouGov there's no partisan effect from the change [in YouGov methodology], it's just to reduce volatility.
Well it has certainly done that. Makes the average pancake look like a mountain range. I wonder when Yougov might start to panic.
Some here do think a reasonably likely result is Con-Lib Coalition part 2.
I think that Mr (Ms?) Rata is saying that despite all its flaws and inadequacies, FPTP does tend to actually reflect the will of the public fairly well, and I agree.
In 2010 the country wanted rid of Labour but did not want the Tories completely off the lead. This time they are unconvinced by either party, and want both sides on a lead, and to finally settle a few constitutional issues relating to devolution. It looks as if it is on the cards too.
I find the anthropomorphising of the electorate as a whole extremely dubious. I think we just got lucky the last time and this time we seem to be heading for chaos.
A substantial renegotiation by 2017 is impossible, so any purported renegotiation would be an exercise in dishonesty, not a genuine means of informing public opinion.
By the same reasoning so would any claims by the Out camp as to what we would negotiate if we left the EU (a negotiation which wouldn't even have started).
Life is full of uncertainties. Get used to it.
False equivalence. Why am I not surprised?
Cameron is claiming he will have a settled renegotiation by 2017. This is an outright lie. No Outer is making a claim that everything would be settled in our favour until - or even after - we had left.
Cameron is the one who has set an unachievable deadline. Anyone supporting that deadline is either stupid or dishonest.
Our relationship with the rest of the EU is constantly evolving. An in/out vote at any point in time will never allow for discussing these nuances.
Which is why we have government by Westminster rather than endless referenda.
Mr. G, we had that here a few years ago. Hailstones the size of radishes. Surprisingly, the windows were entirely unscratched. Glad I wasn't out in it, though.
There may not be enough of them left to count but the Lib Dems have been perfectly clear that the largest party gets first dibs. So if the Tories do squeeze a plurality then they can add the Lib Dems to their score.
I have been saying for a couple of weeks now that the key equation in this election is whether Con + Lib Dem + 19 (or whatever their plurality is)> Lab + SNP. This still looks unlikely to me but the Monday effect has been restored today and the Tories have had a good day.
Con 1.33/1.34 (Shortest ever) Lab 4.0/4.1 (Longest ever - not surprisingly)
A bit surprised there's been moves today. Ashcroft's polls are widely considered to be at "junk" status, and ICM's poll is not really out of step with their previous ones.
Some here do think a reasonably likely result is Con-Lib Coalition part 2.
I think that Mr (Ms?) Rata is saying that despite all its flaws and inadequacies, FPTP does tend to actually reflect the will of the public fairly well, and I agree.
In 2010 the country wanted rid of Labour but did not want the Tories completely off the lead. This time they are unconvinced by either party, and want both sides on a lead, and to finally settle a few constitutional issues relating to devolution. It looks as if it is on the cards too.
I find the anthropomorphising of the electorate as a whole extremely dubious. I think we just got lucky the last time and this time we seem to be heading for chaos.
There is an element of desire to see a large ginger tomcat lobbed at the Westminster pigeons. I do not think that the electorate always think through the consequences very well.
I LOATHE this new 'pumped up' Dave. It reminds me of Rugby matches at school but there the person giving the Henry V speech was at least build like a brick shithouse not someone who's trickled out of Compton's
The Locus adjusted poll of polls today is 35-30-10-14. This gives Con 302 Lab 259, i.e. virtually a standstill from 2010, except of course that there'll only be around 16 LD MPs. Still, unless Ed does something soon, I think Dave's back in.
The LD plan was to possibly throw their lot in with Labour this time to counterbalance supporting the Tories over the last five years. The SNP surge means that isn't viable, so the chances of them getting into bed with the Tories are much higher now IMO. Lab + LD won't be higher than about 290.
I LOATHE this new 'pumped up' Dave. It reminds me of Rugby matches at school but there the person giving the Henry V speech was build like a brick shithouse not someone who's trickled out of Balhams
55% of Brits expect the government should be led by the party with the most seats, only 34% accept that a larger Coalition of smaller parties should lead.
THIS is why it would be crazy for Miliband to gang up with the Nats and outvote a larger Tory party. Just because it is doable does not mean it is acceptable to the voters.
It will be interesting to see how people react to it, given those views. I do think the word legitimate is a bit wrong on the reliance on SNP MPs - it's not a question of whether it is legitimate for me, because it is legitimate, just whether an avowed nationalist party would be able to act in the best interests of the entire UK;hopefully they will surprise us(and hopefully that comment will stop someone jumping down my throat for voicing the concern; please also see my compliment to the SNP below) - but there's a lot that is allowable and is even likely that significant numbers may have concerns with yet won't vote to prevent happening.
I think it depends on how bold the SNP go in any agreement - heard some interesting views from some people today who think Miliband should play hard ball and dare them to vote him out, which would be fascinating to see - and if they are smart, and they have proven themselves to be so, then that high proportion of people who think the largest party should form the government may not get as riled up as some might fear.
I agree with all that.
Clearly a government based on the second largest party will be legitimate if it has the confidence of the House. Just as it is legitimate for UKIP to get 13% of the vote and only 3 seats, and SNP to get 4% of the vote and 50 seats. Those are the rules until they are changed.
Many people will be unhappy but there is nothing they can do about it except froth.
Been delivering in a 'swinging' part of Great Yarmouth today.
There's a history of Scottish settlers in this Constituency, a relic of the fishing industry when fishermen came down from Peterhead each year following the herring shoals and more recently for the offshore gas industry when Oilmen have come down from Aberdeen and, errr, Peterhead.
For all the auld links north of the border, the prospect of Salmond/Surgeon is producing palpable fear with Tory-Kippers reverting to type and supporting the highly visible Brandon Lewis. It's helped that Eric Pickles is his son's Godfather and the amount of Pork barrelled around the borough over the last 5 years has been extraordinary. It's helped to ensure that the number of Kippers is evaporating before our eyes in the Tory wards & swing areas at the Parliamentary level.
I bumped into the Labour Council Leader and he was saying that the blizzard of leaflets from all sides was now counter-productive. We agreed that their candidate Lara Norris has poor name recognition with none of the eye-catching "Jess Asato" posters that are plastering the central bits of Norwich North 20 miles away.
It hasn't helped that the Labour Council has decided to close all the public loos in this holiday town or hired a Council Chief Executive at £1000 per day. This has damaged them and Labour are pinned down in their own council wards [they vote in thirds with 13 seats up for grabs] defending against UKIP council candidates rather than taking the fight to the blues.
It's possible that UKIP might take 3 seats from Labour in the estates and become the largest party in a NOC although the near fight in the Council Chamber last week where UKIP Councillors squared up to Labour and then a septuagenarian UKIP Tory-defector was cautioned for assault, having barged-in on a Hope-Not-Hate Drill Hall meeting. That said, the Tories are too far behind to take control this time, although they'd hope that they'd a few to get closer next year.
The LibDems haven't got a single candidate in the Council elections and there's no evidence of the Greens at all.
Tory Hold in Parliament for Lewis. 50% chance of being the first UKIP-controlled District Council.
I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh, but I've never seen snow in the city centre. Plenty of ice, but never snow. Perhaps I've just been lucky, but an ex spent the entire winter of 1999 there and claims she never saw any either.
Is there some sort of coastal microclimate that makes it less likely?
m too.
I remember my geography teacher in school saying that the warmest place in Britain in winter was the northwest coast of Scotland, thanks to the Gulf Stream. I would have guessed the Scilly Isles, but there we are. He also went on about warm wet winter westerlies - wind.
It's also bollocks. Warmest place in winter in UK (excluding the Channel Isles) would be a protected, riverside village in southern Cornwall or, as you say, the Scillies.
Somewhere like Flushing or Mylor would be a good bet, as they get less wind than the Scillies.
Gardener's Question Time were in Dartmouth recently and identified it as being particularly favoured for mild winters.
There's the famous satellite picture of the UK blanketed in snow in December 2010 which has one green spot - Weymouth, saved by the Fohn effect.
(They had to stay on the island because unfortunately they'd exhausted their funds by then).
That's why I suspect a sheltered riverside village in Cornwall will probably be warmer than the Scillies. The Scillies are exposed, the southern creeks of Cornwall are protected.
It also helps that places like Restronguet or Mawnan or Helford are stunningly lovely.
So where should I go for my first visit to Cornwall then
I'd base yourself somewhere around Falmouth. Then you are just a few minutes from the beautiful creeks and gardens of the south coast (and a ferry ride from the gorgeous Roseland), but you;re only 20 minutes drive from the wildness of the north coast: magnificent Cape Cornwall (it's in the Poldark titles), spooky Zennor, winsome St Ives. And Falmouth itself is a very pleasant, lively town.
Con 1.33/1.34 (Shortest ever) Lab 4.0/4.1 (Longest ever - not surprisingly)
A bit surprised there's been moves today. Ashcroft's polls are widely considered to be at "junk" status, and ICM's poll is not really out of step with their previous ones.
The Ascroft polls today do not look good for the kippers. In these seats it looks as if they are getting a large share of their voters from Labour and LD. That could be a real problem for Labour if true in Lab/Con marginal seats. It could be multiple party churn though.
I LOATHE this new 'pumped up' Dave. It reminds me of Rugby matches at school but there the person giving the Henry V speech was at least build like a brick shithouse not someone who's trickled out of Compton's
Comptons, the gay pub? What's wrong with the drinkers in there Roger?
Comments
2 very big IF's equals no way.
If the LDs abstain, and the Nats and other Leftists vote down a Tory Queen's Speech, Her Madge will have to send for Miliband.
Exactly like in 1924 with MacDonald.
Both of them.
I know they're weighted, but they're talking to different demographics.
And don't mention snow today.
Great Yarmouth a three way tie "leaning conservative"
Cannock Chase 'leaning Labour', with UKIP/Con tied in close 2nd.
Castle Point 'too close to call'. Con/UKIP tie.
I assume you have Panda coverage too
That is quite possible. If it happens, Con can't survive a motion of no confidence, even with LD and UKIP help.
However Lab can survive a motion of no confidence with help from SNP and abstinence from LDs (who won't want a second election and neither will the SNP).
It will be an interesting Parliament because legislation will only pass with the support of SNP and LDs (or Con on Trident). There will be no EU referendum. There will be increased taxes on the wealthy and more spending on the NHS, but the overall amount of legislation will be greatly reduced to relief all round. I think it will be an outstanding Parliament.
Don't dispute that YG are credible and established, but I do feel that I'm reading polls of YG's panel, rather than national randomised VI polls.
The best way of telling how the political wind is blowing
Today/All time
3 polls/20 polls from 11 pollsters
CON +4/-4
LAB +1/-12
UKIP NC/+8
LD-2/-1
Green +3/+4
Outstanding indeed.
Perhaps the Ashcroft constituency polls will prove to be inaccurate. Not long to find out.
Plus once they destroy the economy there will be lots of cheap assets to buy.
edit: also, once I get you the figures, instead of 'all time', you could just have 'short campaign', for instance?
There's the famous satellite picture of the UK blanketed in snow in December 2010 which has one green spot - Weymouth, saved by the Fohn effect.
Con 286
Lab 267
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/
The evidence in favour of 290 / 260 is mounting rather quickly and heavily.
270 raw Con voters. There is the swingback at any rate.
Like you said: Cornwall.
LibDem -> Labour
Certain:
Bristol West
Brent Central
Burnley
Manchester Withington
Norwich South
Redcar
Probable:
Birmingham Yardley
Likely:
Bradford East
Hornsey & Wood Green
Cardiff Central
Possible:
Sheffield Hallam
Unlikely:
Cambridge
Leeds NW
I suspect that the Libs will hold at least one of my "likely" list, and possibly two. Birmingham Yardley is also by no means certain.
But I can see the Conservatives sweeping the board in the SW from the LibDems.
We shall see.
ICM allocate 50% each of 2010 LD/Con/Lab Don't knows and Refusers to account for the so-called "spiral of silence".
Ashcrofts allocates 50% of Con and Lab, but only 30% of LD 2010 DK/ref.
Their response to this setback was to move to the Isle of Man a couple of years later, where exactly the same thing happened again. Mild temperatures but with a strong wind-chill factor. (They had to stay on the island because unfortunately they'd exhausted their funds by then).
The Coast Road from Salcombe to Dartmouth must be one of the most beautiful in the world.
That's why one shouldn't get over-excited at individual polls. (I know you don't Sunil). And it's why individual polls rarely move markets much (though I know one did in Scotland).
To start GE2010 delivered an outcome that mirrored public opinion in almost too precise way in terms of what was granted and denied to each party for FPTP. To me a big enough pool of jaded swing voters in enough marginals had a good gut feeling on who they needed to thwart or advance in their own seats. What side to take in a battle is perhaps where most people's sense of risk is most reliable.
GE2015 also now looks to need a precise outcome. For a good time the polls have reflected simply the desire to deny every single party what they want: Lab/Con well short of a majority, LD denied the balance. Pools of Lab/Con voters have moved back and forth from other parties, meaning if one party looked to pull ahead, a counter move would quickly rebalance things. No issue could cut this bungee cord, only a catastrophic blunder or another ball.
Thus the Tories throwing the SNP into the mix - this has changed the narrative: deny SNP balance IS the higher priority for jaded swing, deny LD less so. But this first requires one the main two parties to get much closer to majority.
The Tories have tried to own that narrative, ignoring that Labour could also get closer. It might just be working, but it now needs to do so in a convincing enough way the electorate, looking for a winner, can see Con are ahead and make the lead stick. If Con can't do that, the danger increases of a Labour counter-swing over the BH weekend. Basically, next goal wins, with the Tories needing to capitalise soon. If a 0-0 draw by next Thursday, the possibility of a very late LD surge. I 've no idea which might happen, just when they might.
So, the paradox of the SNP effect could be that a stable coalition is more up for grabs than in a while. GE prediction - one side winning by 4% or a near dead heat in which LD surprise is more likely than a 2 % win.
The polls themselves are key to signalling a likely winner but they still aren’t settling down. Ironic that the Sun’s pollster maintains a Labour lead! Is it fanciful that we are already seeing in the polls a desire to get a clear seats winner, but that the pools of responders aligned to each pollster follow their own polls more closely and solidify whatever party they see lead, resulting in two opposing sets of polls? Are the house effects reinforcing themselves?
"[YouGov Nowcast] ... It makes use of over 150,000 interviews that have never before been published, using a special two-stage voting intention question that tends to be better at teasing out local tactical voting patterns. It will be supplemented by around 5,000 new interviews every day until election day.
Using the latest statistical techniques, our data team led by Stanford Professor Doug Rivers (YouGov's Chief Scientist) has developed a model that combines the not insignificant number of panelists we have in each constituency (typically between 200 and 500 involved in this study) with imputed results from regional patterns based on detailed demographics, income, ethnicity, work type and of course past voting intention. With this uniquely large dataset, we believe this represents the best available estimate of the current state of the race."
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/01/what-does-yougov-nowcast-mean-parties/
Out of all the pollsters, I hope Ashcroft falls on his arse, and sods off back to Belize with his dosh. I find the way he has made himself a central figure in this campaign grating to say the least.
Some here do think a reasonably likely result is Con-Lib Coalition part 2.
Ashcroft
ComRes (phone)
Survation
ICM
Ipsos MORI
TNS
Panelbase
Only Opinium, Populus and YouGov (and ComRes, online) have really hefty samples above 1500 or so.
How much bigger than Ashcroft was ICM's total sample size today? 1 respondent!
1,004 vs. 1,003 for Ashcroft
Life is full of uncertainties. Get used to it.
Last 15 non YG + Populus Mean 33.9 CON / 32.1LAB
@tnewtondunn @Sunil_P2 @YouGov there's no partisan effect from the change [in YouGov methodology], it's just to reduce volatility.
Its acceptable to the voters of Scotland!
I think it depends on how bold the SNP go in any agreement - heard some interesting views from some people today who think Miliband should play hard ball and dare them to vote him out, which would be fascinating to see - and if they are smart, and they have proven themselves to be so, then that high proportion of people who think the largest party should form the government may not get as riled up as some might fear.
Cameron is claiming he will have a settled renegotiation by 2017. This is an outright lie. No Outer is making a claim that everything would be settled in our favour until - or even after - we had left.
Cameron is the one who has set an unachievable deadline. Anyone supporting that deadline is either stupid or dishonest.
In 2010 the country wanted rid of Labour but did not want the Tories completely off the lead. This time they are unconvinced by either party, and want both sides on a lead, and to finally settle a few constitutional issues relating to devolution. It looks as if it is on the cards too.
Con 1.33/1.34 (Shortest ever)
Lab 4.0/4.1 (Longest ever - not surprisingly)
Which is why we have government by Westminster rather than endless referenda.
What, precisely, could the voters do about it? F8ck all.
Last 15 Non You gov + Populus + Portillo's Granny CON 51 LAB 27
I have been saying for a couple of weeks now that the key equation in this election is whether Con + Lib Dem + 19 (or whatever their plurality is)> Lab + SNP. This still looks unlikely to me but the Monday effect has been restored today and the Tories have had a good day.
Con 32 (3)
Con 33 (7)
Con 34 (4)
Con 35 (1)
Lab 34 (8)
Lab 35 (5)
Lab 36 (2)
Almost unbelievably narrow ranges
But...
but...
excluding YG gives a TORY lead of 0.6%!
Clearly a government based on the second largest party will be legitimate if it has the confidence of the House. Just as it is legitimate for UKIP to get 13% of the vote and only 3 seats, and SNP to get 4% of the vote and 50 seats. Those are the rules until they are changed.
Many people will be unhappy but there is nothing they can do about it except froth.
There's a history of Scottish settlers in this Constituency, a relic of the fishing industry when fishermen came down from Peterhead each year following the herring shoals and more recently for the offshore gas industry when Oilmen have come down from Aberdeen and, errr, Peterhead.
For all the auld links north of the border, the prospect of Salmond/Surgeon is producing palpable fear with Tory-Kippers reverting to type and supporting the highly visible Brandon Lewis. It's helped that Eric Pickles is his son's Godfather and the amount of Pork barrelled around the borough over the last 5 years has been extraordinary. It's helped to ensure that the number of Kippers is evaporating before our eyes in the Tory wards & swing areas at the Parliamentary level.
I bumped into the Labour Council Leader and he was saying that the blizzard of leaflets from all sides was now counter-productive. We agreed that their candidate Lara Norris has poor name recognition with none of the eye-catching "Jess Asato" posters that are plastering the central bits of Norwich North 20 miles away.
It hasn't helped that the Labour Council has decided to close all the public loos in this holiday town or hired a Council Chief Executive at £1000 per day. This has damaged them and Labour are pinned down in their own council wards [they vote in thirds with 13 seats up for grabs] defending against UKIP council candidates rather than taking the fight to the blues.
It's possible that UKIP might take 3 seats from Labour in the estates and become the largest party in a NOC although the near fight in the Council Chamber last week where UKIP Councillors squared up to Labour and then a septuagenarian UKIP Tory-defector was cautioned for assault, having barged-in on a Hope-Not-Hate Drill Hall meeting. That said, the Tories are too far behind to take control this time, although they'd hope that they'd a few to get closer next year.
The LibDems haven't got a single candidate in the Council elections and there's no evidence of the Greens at all.
Tory Hold in Parliament for Lewis. 50% chance of being the first UKIP-controlled District Council.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot