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  • Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Sturgeon is just so competent. How much would Lab or Con be winning by if they had someone with her touch.

    One of the remarkable things about Nicola is that she was not always the politician you see today. Initially she was not just shy but absolutely awful at people interactions. What you see today is entirely the product of her mentoring by Alex Salmond.

    I'm sure someone must have already posted this brilliantly-put-together montage of news reporting 7-11 days out from 1992.

    Correlation is not causation, of course, but the correlation is astonishing.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVsmEtOH50o&feature=youtu.be

    Lib Dems can only dream of 19% ;D
    I was very optimistic about the LD’s in 1997 and especially so in 2010. I was disappointed.

    I’m very pessimistic about them this time. Am I going to be wrong again?
    In a word - No.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505

    Dair said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nigel Farage talking his usual nonsense about wind farms:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1472432/wind-giving-power-to-thanets-purple-vote

    Wind power NIMBYs are one of the few things that gets me genuinely angry. The utter stupidity from them goes beyond nonsense.
    NIMBY is a loaded expression - it isn't unreasonable for people to care particularly about the environment where they personally live (because if they don't who else is going to?) And wind farms are blighting inter alia the whole of Highland Scotland and the whole of Cornwall, so the concern is not merely parochial.

    Personally I don't think they look too bad; they don't infuriate me like solar panel farms on good agricultural land do.
    Personally I find Wind Farms beautiful. The real blight on the landscape of the Highlands is the enormous acreage of non-native conifers that London governments required to be planted across Scotland.
    Whereas the windfarms came from the Archangel Gabriel.
    My understanding is that Scots Pine is a conifer and as its name implies is native to Scotland, possibly even the Highlands.
    Old turnip head, he would not have complained if they were indeed Scots Pine rather than imported crap to give southerners tax breaks.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Sturgeon is just so competent. How much would Lab or Con be winning by if they had someone with her touch.

    One of the remarkable things about Nicola is that she was not always the politician you see today. Initially she was not just shy but absolutely awful at people interactions. What you see today is entirely the product of her mentoring by Alex Salmond.

    I'm sure someone must have already posted this brilliantly-put-together montage of news reporting 7-11 days out from 1992.

    Correlation is not causation, of course, but the correlation is astonishing.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVsmEtOH50o&feature=youtu.be

    Lib Dems can only dream of 19% ;D
    I was very optimistic about the LD’s in 1997 and especially so in 2010. I was disappointed.

    I’m very pessimistic about them this time. Am I going to be wrong again?
    In a word - No.
    Have you not heard about the buzz in Mid Dorset ?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Pulpstar said:

    Is they any news how the only conservative MP in Scotland David Mundell is doing in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale ?

    Losing his seat most likely.
    Panda's to the dodo then.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:
    Brian Gould in the background in the thumbnail.

    How the world would be different if he had become Labour leader rather than John Smith! Blair would have never had his chance, nor Brown. He seems to have a good career since:

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Gould
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    Nate Silver forecasting the GE result on BBC1 Panorama in 15 mins.

    The collective wisdom here is better. He's using Hanretty anyway.
    Is he still way under on SNP?
  • @TSEofPB: MT @lewis_baston. Stiff electoral competition in the Bristol South constituency, 1979. http://t.co/uU8YF48XAA
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MikeL said:

    Nate Silver forecasting the GE result on BBC1 Panorama in 15 mins.

    The collective wisdom here is better. He's using Hanretty anyway.
    Is he still way under on SNP?
    Yes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    Though he is up to 48. I'm regarding it as a minimum.

    Con gain BRS looks a touch dubious to me. I suspect the SNP will nab it.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nigel Farage talking his usual nonsense about wind farms:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1472432/wind-giving-power-to-thanets-purple-vote

    Wind power NIMBYs are one of the few things that gets me genuinely angry. The utter stupidity from them goes beyond nonsense.
    NIMBY is a loaded expression - it isn't unreasonable for people to care particularly about the environment where they personally live (because if they don't who else is going to?) And wind farms are blighting inter alia the whole of Highland Scotland and the whole of Cornwall, so the concern is not merely parochial.

    Personally I don't think they look too bad; they don't infuriate me like solar panel farms on good agricultural land do.
    Personally I find Wind Farms beautiful. The real blight on the landscape of the Highlands is the enormous acreage of non-native conifers that London governments required to be planted across Scotland.
    Whereas the windfarms came from the Archangel Gabriel.
    My understanding is that Scots Pine is a conifer and as its name implies is native to Scotland, possibly even the Highlands.
    Forestry Commission doesn't grow (much) Scots Pine.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Dair said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nigel Farage talking his usual nonsense about wind farms:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1472432/wind-giving-power-to-thanets-purple-vote

    Wind power NIMBYs are one of the few things that gets me genuinely angry. The utter stupidity from them goes beyond nonsense.
    NIMBY is a loaded expression - it isn't unreasonable for people to care particularly about the environment where they personally live (because if they don't who else is going to?) And wind farms are blighting inter alia the whole of Highland Scotland and the whole of Cornwall, so the concern is not merely parochial.

    Personally I don't think they look too bad; they don't infuriate me like solar panel farms on good agricultural land do.
    Personally I find Wind Farms beautiful. The real blight on the landscape of the Highlands is the enormous acreage of non-native conifers that London governments required to be planted across Scotland.
    Whereas the windfarms came from the Archangel Gabriel.
    My understanding is that Scots Pine is a conifer and as its name implies is native to Scotland, possibly even the Highlands.
    It's mainly Sitka spruce, from North America. http://tinyurl.com/ptubkah
  • Pulpstar said:
    Brian Gould in the background in the thumbnail.

    How the world woud be different if he had become Labour leader rather than John Smith. Blair would have never had his chance, nor Brown. He seems to have a good career since:

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Gould
    An OK career yes, but nothing like what might have been had he stayed the course in British politics.
    A classic case of what Yorkshire folk refer to as "taking his bat home".
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    weejonnie said:

    surbiton said:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/

    Conservative candidate suspended after Jewish slur against Ed Miliband

    I was half expecting a candidate of another party saying something like this.

    I don't think that the party affiliation of the candidate was a factor - something else was.
    When someone who is anti-semitic wants to go on a rant they usually switch the word Jewish with Zionist or Israeli to avoid accusations of anti-semitism. When you look at speeches given by certain preachers they sometimes slip up and mention Jews thus revealing their true colours.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    DavidL said:

    Yes, undoubtedly. It is not a common law system. It requires the Courts to read the law purposively in a way that makes a common lawyer shudder. It is part of the deal.

    There is nothing whatever in the Treaties that requires them to be interpreted in that way. It was the Court of Justice which decided you had to look first at the spirit of the treaty, then its economic aspect and lastly its terms. Of course, it is reasonable that the court should where possible give effect to the intention of the framers. The problem is that the court claims to do so by reference to superadded purposes which have no basis in the primary or secondary legislation. The only sensible way of discerning the purpose of a provision is by reference to the meaning of the words used.

    I do agree, however, that any referendum will have to be won on the economic arguments.
    Thus speaks the common lawyer.

    Of course EEC law, as it then was, was framed by French and German lawyers who shared the concept of a purposive interpretation of codes and a shocking disregard for precedent. So far as I am aware it was not a leap of jurisprudence on the part of the ECJ which resulted in this purposive interpretation. It never really occurred to them that it should be done any other way. Certainly by the time we joined the supremacy of EEC law and the purposive interpretation of legislation was very well established. That is what we signed up for whether people were told or not.

    I remember going over all of this at University in the late 70s. For lawyers at least it was not news.
  • New thread.
  • wills66wills66 Posts: 103


    The Ascroft polls today do not look good for the kippers. In these seats it looks as if they are getting a large share of their voters from Labour and LD. That could be a real problem for Labour if true in Lab/Con marginal seats. It could be multiple party churn though.

    Bit of anecdotal to support the problem-for-labour thesis. I spent the weekend in my old hometown wandering around what is now Plymouth Moor View, a seat which at first pass seems an easy Lab hold. The area I grew up in (solid labour council estate) looks like the HQ of the UKIP fan club. The local council results also seem to suggest that UKIP is taking a lot of working-class Labour votes, perhaps enough to let the Tory candidate win.

    I'm not sure this is a national trend, Plymouth is a bit "special" when it comes to UKIP at the moment, possibly because the voters are fed up with London types getting the city mixed up with Portsmouth or just forgetting it exists entirely. Good odds on the Tory, 7/1 last time I checked.

    WillS
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2015

    Pulpstar said:
    Brian Gould in the background in the thumbnail.

    How the world woud be different if he had become Labour leader rather than John Smith. Blair would have never had his chance, nor Brown. He seems to have a good career since:

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Gould
    An OK career yes, but nothing like what might have been had he stayed the course in British politics.
    A classic case of what Yorkshire folk refer to as "taking his bat home".
    I quite liked Brian Gould. Imagine 97 and later with him rather than Blair/Brown in control. Probably not the same size majority, but probably no Iraq war either.
  • I see Andrew Marr had to apologise on his show yesterday for misquoting Cameron on his love of fox hunting. Tories getting edgy over DC looking out of touch with Joe Public for wanting to repeal the Hunting Act?...particularly as most hunts are ignoring the law and hunting live quarry regardless.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    The "winner" forecast has SNP 53, Con 2, LD 1 and Lab holding Rutherglen and Glasgow NE by the looks of the map. Also Dumferline West Fife.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    felix said:

    surbiton said:

    SMukesh said:

    Encouraging signs for Labour from the marginal polling and terrifying signs from the two phone polls

    The Ashcroft poll has a sample of 558 and a MoE of 4.1%. So, either could be leading. Thanks to Barnesian for spotting that.
    That's about the third time you've tried to rubbish a poll you scared s*****ss about. Just a teensy bit desperate. And you've still got 2 hours before the next YG. :)
    If you spend a little time on UKPR (a somewhat more academic polling site than this) you will find a lot of questions being raised about Lord A's polls, which he steadfastly still refuses to tell us who conducted them as far as I am aware.
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    malcolmg said:

    Dair said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nigel Farage talking his usual nonsense about wind farms:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1472432/wind-giving-power-to-thanets-purple-vote

    Wind power NIMBYs are one of the few things that gets me genuinely angry. The utter stupidity from them goes beyond nonsense.
    NIMBY is a loaded expression - it isn't unreasonable for people to care particularly about the environment where they personally live (because if they don't who else is going to?) And wind farms are blighting inter alia the whole of Highland Scotland and the whole of Cornwall, so the concern is not merely parochial.

    Personally I don't think they look too bad; they don't infuriate me like solar panel farms on good agricultural land do.
    Personally I find Wind Farms beautiful. The real blight on the landscape of the Highlands is the enormous acreage of non-native conifers that London governments required to be planted across Scotland.
    Whereas the windfarms came from the Archangel Gabriel.
    My understanding is that Scots Pine is a conifer and as its name implies is native to Scotland, possibly even the Highlands.
    Old turnip head, he would not have complained if they were indeed Scots Pine rather than imported crap to give southerners tax breaks.
    Like the Spruce introduced to the UK by well know Scotsman David Douglas? So popular they named it after him - that's the Scotsman who imported the crap in case you were wondering.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Pulpstar said:

    Is they any news how the only conservative MP in Scotland David Mundell is doing in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale ?

    Losing his seat most likely.
    Panda's to the dodo then.

    Dodo's are a better bet than Tory MPs.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coelacanth

    Dodo's might still exist.
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154
    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nigel Farage talking his usual nonsense about wind farms:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1472432/wind-giving-power-to-thanets-purple-vote

    Wind power NIMBYs are one of the few things that gets me genuinely angry. The utter stupidity from them goes beyond nonsense.
    NIMBY is a loaded expression - it isn't unreasonable for people to care particularly about the environment where they personally live (because if they don't who else is going to?) And wind farms are blighting inter alia the whole of Highland Scotland and the whole of Cornwall, so the concern is not merely parochial.

    Personally I don't think they look too bad; they don't infuriate me like solar panel farms on good agricultural land do.
    Personally I find Wind Farms beautiful. The real blight on the landscape of the Highlands is the enormous acreage of non-native conifers that London governments required to be planted across Scotland.
    Whereas the windfarms came from the Archangel Gabriel.
    My understanding is that Scots Pine is a conifer and as its name implies is native to Scotland, possibly even the Highlands.
    It's mainly Sitka spruce, from North America. http://tinyurl.com/ptubkah
    I used to work for the Forestry Commission in younger days, it was not just Sitka Spruce they were planting by the million but Lodge Pole Pines by the million as well from NA. We spent lot of time spraying insecticide against the Pine Beauty Moth as well much to the annoyance of several other land owners who grumbled about pollution of their Salmon and Trout Rivers etc.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Though he is up to 48. I'm regarding it as a minimum.

    Con gain BRS looks a touch dubious to me. I suspect the SNP will nab it.

    The SNP are creating the (for the UK) new phenomenon of Inverse Swingback (if Reverse Swingback is Swingback followed by a reversal, Inverse Swingback is going the opposite way from the get go).
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    new thread
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nigel Farage talking his usual nonsense about wind farms:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1472432/wind-giving-power-to-thanets-purple-vote

    Wind power NIMBYs are one of the few things that gets me genuinely angry. The utter stupidity from them goes beyond nonsense.
    NIMBY is a loaded expression - it isn't unreasonable for people to care particularly about the environment where they personally live (because if they don't who else is going to?) And wind farms are blighting inter alia the whole of Highland Scotland and the whole of Cornwall, so the concern is not merely parochial.

    Personally I don't think they look too bad; they don't infuriate me like solar panel farms on good agricultural land do.
    Personally I find Wind Farms beautiful. The real blight on the landscape of the Highlands is the enormous acreage of non-native conifers that London governments required to be planted across Scotland.
    Whereas the windfarms came from the Archangel Gabriel.
    My understanding is that Scots Pine is a conifer and as its name implies is native to Scotland, possibly even the Highlands.
    It's mainly Sitka spruce, from North America. http://tinyurl.com/ptubkah
    Interesting numbers, shows how Scotland has been viewed as the area which can be destroyed for "national requirements" while England remains untouched by the (outdated) Forestry Commission needs for WW1 (which it is still based on).

    Only think England grows more of is Christmas Trees.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Nate Silver show playing the incredible "Son I just Wrote This" by Stanley Odd.

    Great song.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2015

    I see Andrew Marr had to apologise on his show yesterday for misquoting Cameron on his love of fox hunting. Tories getting edgy over DC looking out of touch with Joe Public for wanting to repeal the Hunting Act?...particularly as most hunts are ignoring the law and hunting live quarry regardless.

    The Countryside Alliance weren't exactly over the moon about Marrs 'misquote' of an article they published.

    That's the more likely reason for his apology, and rightly so.
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    Danny565 said:

    Creidekki said:

    I'm sure it's been talked about a lot on here but I just wanted to pitch in with my absolute itching irritation at the subversion of the word progressive by Sturgeon et al. Are they afraid to call themselves socialists? It surprises me that Evan Davies didn't call her out on it and get some kind of explanation. Hey ho.

    That's because Sturgeon is not a socialist. Socialism is wholesale nationalisation of industries.

    Despite some of the PBTories' distorted views of mainstream thinking, increasing government spending, prioritising strong public services over needless deficit reduction, increased taxes and responsibilites for the super-rich, and increased regulation of markets is only moderate social democracy, not socialism.
    If running massive deficits is only moderate social democracy I suggest Scotland beware of the total social democracy offered by Sturgeon.
    Not worrying about where the money comes from is the hallmark of socialism, and there is nothing social or democratic about that.

    We can all pick away - but tell me is she still a member of CND?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Sturgeon is just so competent. How much would Lab or Con be winning by if they had someone with her touch.

    People said the same thing about Gordon Brown once upon a time
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Dair said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nigel Farage talking his usual nonsense about wind farms:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1472432/wind-giving-power-to-thanets-purple-vote

    Wind power NIMBYs are one of the few things that gets me genuinely angry. The utter stupidity from them goes beyond nonsense.
    NIMBY is a loaded expression - it isn't unreasonable for people to care particularly about the environment where they personally live (because if they don't who else is going to?) And wind farms are blighting inter alia the whole of Highland Scotland and the whole of Cornwall, so the concern is not merely parochial.

    Personally I don't think they look too bad; they don't infuriate me like solar panel farms on good agricultural land do.
    Personally I find Wind Farms beautiful. The real blight on the landscape of the Highlands is the enormous acreage of non-native conifers that London governments required to be planted across Scotland.
    Industrial forests are one of the ugliest things around. It was absolutely hilarious when some numpties tries to use the necessity of felling some industrial woodland as a reason to object t to a wind farm development. I would have liked to have seen their faces as it was explained to them that it was the whole purpose of it being there in the first place.
  • Who said anything about enforcing in the ECJ? It'll be a deal agreed after a gruelling late night session with the other member states. Like any other deal.

    By voting to stay in we would lose any bargaining power or ability to see that the agreement to agree was implemented.

    Cameron hasn't suggested that. However UKIP seem to be claiming that they can negotiate a trade treaty which would not involve any concessions on that point, which is rather optimistic, to put it mildly.

    Yes, he is proposing that. At pp. 29-30 on the Conservative Manifesto:
    We will negotiate new rules with the EU, so that people will have to be earning here for a number of years
    before they can claim benefits, including the tax credits that top up low wages.
    That would require renegotiation of articles 18 and 45 of TFEU. I could go on, but I fear the technicalities would be of limited interest. From a quick scan of pp. 29-30, there are at least four promises which are inconsistent with fundamental provisions of TFEU as interpreted by the Court of Justice.
  • Who said anything about enforcing in the ECJ? It'll be a deal agreed after a gruelling late night session with the other member states. Like any other deal.

    By voting to stay in we would lose any bargaining power or ability to see that the agreement to agree was implemented.

    Cameron hasn't suggested that. However UKIP seem to be claiming that they can negotiate a trade treaty which would not involve any concessions on that point, which is rather optimistic, to put it mildly.

    Yes, he is proposing that. At pp. 29-30 on the Conservative Manifesto:
    We will negotiate new rules with the EU, so that people will have to be earning here for a number of years
    before they can claim benefits, including the tax credits that top up low wages.
    That would require renegotiation of articles 18 and 45 of TFEU. I could go on, but I fear the technicalities would be of limited interest. From a quick scan of pp. 29-30, there are at least four promises which are inconsistent with fundamental provisions of TFEU as interpreted by the Court of Justice.
This discussion has been closed.