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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON 6% lead in latest Ashcroft national poll while in new s

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON 6% lead in latest Ashcroft national poll while in new seat polls UKIP continues to struggle

CON move to 6% lead in @LordAshcroft national poll
CON 36+2
LAB 30=
LD 9-1
UKIP 11-2
GN 7+3

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Kippers better pray I'm right on my Shy Kippers on the phone theory
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    So how does this explain Great Grimsby, Cannock Chase, Great Yarmouth ? Is Labour losing votes where it doesn't need them ? Or, is Lord A polls just plain cobblers !
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited April 2015
    FPT

    Ashcroft national poll:

    Baxter say's a Con majority of 2!

    EMWNBPM or EICINPM


  • There's a big difference on Q1 and Q2 in Cannock Chase, I think that's people thinking they might be voting for Burley again.

    Is why a named poll would be useful.
  • I think no discussion re the latest Miliband link is advisable...

    And so to the bigger question, namely who would play whom in Nicola Sturgeon: The Movie. The starring role, by common consent, would go to Dame Helen Mirren or, if the producers insisted on a Scot, Elaine C. Smith. Jim Murphy would be played by Peter Capaldi from The Thick Of It, or Jim Carrey, or (more encouragingly) Ewan McGregor. Sue Perkins or Rhona Cameron would play Ruth Davidson, and Scottish Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie would be portrayed by “a gentlemanly quiet person” like Geoffrey Palmer or Ashley from Emmerdale. David Cameron would be Hugh Grant or Colin Firth. What about Ed Miliband? “Woody Allen”. Ooft.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    Greens on 7 with Ashcroft looks quite high. I'd be surprised if they polled more than 5%.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    OUTLIER! OUTLIER! OUTLIER! How can the Greens possibly be UP 3 on 7????
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Polls for everyone. Pick your favourite and rubbish the rest. Welcome to PB World.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    That polling still suggests to me that UKIP will win Castle Point. But really surprised they're that far behind in Grimsby. Having said that Ashcroft polls are never too favourable towards UKIP.
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455
    GIN1138 said:

    FPT

    Ashcroft national poll:

    Baxter say's a Con majority of 2!

    EMWNBPM or EICINPM


    FPT Betfair still says Meh. £90 of Cameron avaiable to buy at 2.5.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    Ashcroft is one of those New Kids On The Block, seemingly Hangin' Tough, yet untested at a real election?

    :)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    OUTLIER! OUTLIER! OUTLIER! How can the Greens possibly be UP 3 on 7????

    A 75% jump from 4% !!!!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Brom, think I read on here that the UKIP candidate in Grimsby was rubbish on EU fishing quota stuff, and that's behind the purple slump.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    What is it with the Greens? Their policies and leader are both mental. Can we take it these are lefties unpersuaded by Ed Miliband? Or SNP fifth columnists south of the border?

    This election is truly weird.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Last few weeks Marginals Con-Lab swing in ranked order:

    8.5 NW City of Chester
    8.0 YH Great Grimsby – LAB SEAT
    7.5 NW Crewe and Nantwich
    7.0 GL Finchley and Golders Green
    7.0 SW Bristol W – LIB DEM SEAT
    6.5 WM Cannock Chase
    6.0 EM Milton Keynes South
    5.5 GL Harrow East
    5.5 NW Wirral west
    5.0 EM Nuneaton
    5.0 GL Croydon Central
    5.0 SE Hove
    5.0 NW Rossendale and Darwen
    5.0 NW South Ribble
    4.5 YH Colne Valley
    4.0 EE Great Yarmouth
    4.0 NW Morecambe and Lunesdale
    4.0 SE Rochester ad Strood
    4.0 SW South Swindon
    3.5 SE Southampton Itchen - LAB SEAT
    3.5 EM High Peak
    3.5 YH Cleethorpes
    3.0 NE Stockton South
    3.0 WM Dudley South
    3.0 WM Halesowen
    2.0 NW Pendle
    1.5 YH Pudsey
    1.5 SW Bristol NW
    1.0 SE Dover
    0.5 EE Harlow
    0.5 EE Thurrock
    0.5 EM Loughborough
    0.5 NW Blackpool North
    0.5 SW Gloucester
    0.5 SW Worcester
    0.0 EE Castle Point
    -2.0 SW Kingswood
    -3.5 SW NE Somerset
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Nigel Farage wins BBC viewers' vote in leader interviews http://t.co/3zEnQC5c2s

    — UKIP Broxtowe (@UKIPBroxtowe) April 27, 2015
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    I think no discussion re the latest Miliband link is advisable...

    Elaborate.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2015
    "And so to the bigger question, namely who would play whom in Nicola Sturgeon: The Movie. The starring role, by common consent, would go to Dame Helen Mirren or, if the producers insisted on a Scot, Elaine C. Smith. Jim Murphy would be played by Peter Capaldi from The Thick Of It, or Jim Carrey, or (more encouragingly) Ewan McGregor. Sue Perkins or Rhona Cameron would play Ruth Davidson, and Scottish Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie would be portrayed by “a gentlemanly quiet person” like Geoffrey Palmer or Ashley from Emmerdale. David Cameron would be Hugh Grant or Colin Firth. What about Ed Miliband? “Woody Allen”. Ooft."


    Woody Allen - lolz.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Lord Ashcroft will be known as Mr. Ashcroft after the election. :D
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I think no discussion re the latest Miliband link is advisable...

    And so to the bigger question, namely who would play whom in Nicola Sturgeon: The Movie. The starring role, by common consent, would go to Dame Helen Mirren or, if the producers insisted on a Scot, Elaine C. Smith.

    Jeanette Krankie, no contest
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Mr. Brom, think I read on here that the UKIP candidate in Grimsby was rubbish on EU fishing quota stuff, and that's behind the purple slump.

    Yes I get the impression Ayling isn't the strongest candidate, and her Tory background won't help. I was thinking this might be cancelled out by the Labour candidate Melanie Onn being the career politican sort who wouldn't impress the locals. Will scan over the raw data later today.
  • So all the phone polls bar the Ipsos Mori have the Tories ahead.

    The online pollsters have Labour ahead, bar Survation and Opinium.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    surbiton said:

    So how does this explain Great Grimsby, Cannock Chase, Great Yarmouth ? Is Labour losing votes where it doesn't need them ? Or, is Lord A polls just plain cobblers !

    With the exception of Castle Point, Labour is winning the ground game in these seats.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    So all the phone polls bar the Ipsos Mori have the Tories ahead.

    The online pollsters have Labour ahead, bar Survation and Opinium.

    Clear as mud.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    like the funny man who keeps giving you more and more sweets, if only you will get in his car...

    Maybe some bright spark labour spads have worked out labour is now an English party.

    ' Hang on a sec, Jocasta, isn;t England actually....er.....pretty conservative.'

    'yikes...'
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    And, SPIN Has not moved one jot !
  • Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very difficult to reconcile.

    Again this raises the question, is the company doing the national poll the same as the company or companies doing the individual seat polls? Looking at this I would suggest the answer is no. The lack of transparency is quite unsatisfactory when people are betting a lot of money on these polls.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    Don't do itttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt...too late.

    https://freehdwallpaper.in/walls/squirrel-jump-normal.jpg
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    surbiton said:

    And, SPIN Has not moved one jot !

    Isn't spin quite bull for the blues? If so, this poll is already priced in!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    FPT: Another part of our business does a lot of work with the EU. A mug has appeared in our kitchen with "Guardian of Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law" on it in a jaunty colourful script, as well as the logo of the Council of Europe, and the same message in French.

    Weighing up whether to ever-so-accidentally knock it off the table...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very difficult to reconcile.

    Again this raises the question, is the company doing the national poll the same as the company or companies doing the individual seat polls? Looking at this I would suggest the answer is no. The lack of transparency is quite unsatisfactory when people are betting a lot of money on these polls.

    None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Anorak, that's vomit-inducingly horrendous. As such, it's a hazard to human health, and your duty to a safe and healthy workplace is to harm it beyond repair.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Not surprised about Cannock Chase considering the controversy surrounding Aidan Burley (who isn't standing again)
  • A sensationally good result for the Blues, especially after the equally disappointing earlier one for them from Populus. A word of caution however, it does appear that the Communists Greens, up by a very dubious 3%, may have benefited at Labour's expense, whilst the Tories appear to have nicked 1% - 2% from UKIP.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    SeanT said:



    However however I wonder if Labour are now handing out too many baubles, they start to look a bit iffy: like the funny man who keeps giving you more and more sweets, if only you will get in his car...

    By pointing at the doll, can you show me where the creepy man offered to reduce your Stamp Duty to zero?
  • surbiton said:

    And, SPIN Has not moved one jot !

    betfair most seats has....
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    Its places like Grimsby where the UKIP vote is going to gift the election to the SNP.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Even though UKIP is falling rapidly in the constituency polls, that fall has not benefited the Tories, instead it splits evenly between them and Labour so the swings are pretty much the same.
    Today on the 3 Tory seats the swing to LAB is 3.5% on average, the same as the previous 23 constituency polls of Tory seats since the campaign began.
    Which brings us to the paradox of Lord A.

    On his constituency polls, Labour are heading for 50 seat gains from the Tories.
    On his national polls, the Tories are on to a majority.
  • JGCJGC Posts: 64
    There is something odd about the Ashcroft polls, does he use the same company for the national and constituency polls? In this group Cannock Chase has a 6.5% swing con - lab, Gt Grimsby 8% con - lab & Gt Yarmouth 4% con - lab but his national poll about 1% con - lab. That cant be accounted for by a better ground operation.

    On any of the swings in the constituency polls the tories cant get enough seats to hang on, even if they hold seats like Gt Yarmouth
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Don't worry, those nonpartisan folks at May2015 are onto it:

    May2015 Election @May2015NS

    Ukip fading in key seats—& Lab doing better than thought. @LordAshcroft seat polls paint diff pic to his 6pt headline
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Only three companies conduct phone polling (assuming Ashcroft uses a variety), I don't think a 2 to 1 Conservative/Labour split with phone polls is enough to split the two methods. The Labour lead versus Conservative lead difference is specific to the polling companies themselves.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,540
    surbiton said:

    So how does this explain Great Grimsby, Cannock Chase, Great Yarmouth ? Is Labour losing votes where it doesn't need them ? Or, is Lord A polls just plain cobblers !

    Margin of error, combined with the fact that shifts in constituency vote shares aren't uniform, particularly where UKIP are polling well.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very difficult to reconcile.

    Again this raises the question, is the company doing the national poll the same as the company or companies doing the individual seat polls? Looking at this I would suggest the answer is no. The lack of transparency is quite unsatisfactory when people are betting a lot of money on these polls.

    None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
    There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Cannock Chase shows graphically where the tory problem is. Actually quite worrying for Con. And for UKIP, who could well cop part of the blame for letting in the fragrant Nicola.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043

    Mr. Anorak, that's vomit-inducingly horrendous. As such, it's a hazard to human health, and your duty to a safe and healthy workplace is to harm it beyond repair.

    I certainly hope it conforms to the Caffinated Beverage Consumption Receptacle (Standardised Weights and Measures) Directive.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    SeanT said:



    However however I wonder if Labour are now handing out too many baubles, they start to look a bit iffy: like the funny man who keeps giving you more and more sweets, if only you will get in his car...

    By pointing at the doll, can you show me where the creepy man offered to reduce your Stamp Duty to zero?
    That comment is just ... so wrong. But very funny.
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    On UNS Ashcroft would give the Tories 316 seats, close to an overall majority.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Its places like Grimsby where the UKIP vote is going to gift the election to the SNP.

    Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.

    If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    A sensationally good result for the Blues, especially after the equally disappointing earlier one for them from Populus. A word of caution however, it does appear that the Communists Greens, up by a very dubious 3%, may have benefited at Labour's expense, whilst the Tories appear to have nicked 1% - 2% from UKIP.

    I wonder if these latest phone polls prove to be more accurate the YG etc it will give the lie to the notion of a crap campaign by the Tories. Could indicate a growing gulf between the twitterati in the 'village' and the real people in the country.
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    Cannock Chase was a slightly odd gain in 2010 because Aidan Burley worked very hard.

    It will now be a loss because Aidan Burley was an unmitigated disaster.
    taffys said:

    Cannock Chase shows graphically where the tory problem is. Actually quite worrying for Con. And for UKIP, who could well cop part of the blame for letting in the fragrant Nicola.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043

    Don't worry, those nonpartisan folks at May2015 are onto it:

    May2015 Election @May2015NS

    Ukip fading in key seats—& Lab doing better than thought. @LordAshcroft seat polls paint diff pic to his 6pt headline

    They lost all credibility with their ICM comments!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    The Clinton Foundation is in full defensive flow concerning information in a book which has not yet been published - Clinton Cash by Peter Schweizer. It's due out May 5th.

    To be fair, Schweizer has not claimed to have direct evidence of any quid pro quo but merely points out the facts and connections.

    As a result the Foundation has announced it will be refiling several years of tax returns.

    If Schweizer's information is accurate, it looks like the Clinton Campaign and Foundation might have some issues to answer.

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/04/27/behind-the-man-who-outed-clinton-s-cash.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Meanwhile the Ashcroft focus group was asked who would play each party leader in a film of their life:

    David Cameron: Hugh Grant

    LOL....I know Hugh Grant's career has gone down hill, but can you imagine him signing up to play Cameron is a positive film about him?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    edited April 2015
    So Blues ahead with ICM, Lord A, Survation, Omnium, Comres?
    And Reds ahead with YouGov, Populus, MORI, Panelbase and TNS?

    We do need another MORI....for quality control purposes.

    PS I've just completed a yougov for the British election Survey with another to follow soon. Could be a polling turning point ;)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Don't worry, those nonpartisan folks at May2015 are onto it:

    May2015 Election @May2015NS

    Ukip fading in key seats—& Lab doing better than thought. @LordAshcroft seat polls paint diff pic to his 6pt headline

    That's exactly my point. I think the Tories are doing better in all other constituencies than those which were polled !!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Don't worry, those nonpartisan folks at May2015 are onto it:

    May2015 Election @May2015NS

    Ukip fading in key seats—& Lab doing better than thought. @LordAshcroft seat polls paint diff pic to his 6pt headline

    @DPJHodges: @May2015NS "Despite a few good polls, the chances of Cameron’s survival have not improved"??????
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,033
    Speedy said:

    Even though UKIP is falling rapidly in the constituency polls, that fall has not benefited the Tories, instead it splits evenly between them and Labour so the swings are pretty much the same.
    Today on the 3 Tory seats the swing to LAB is 3.5% on average, the same as the previous 23 constituency polls of Tory seats since the campaign began.
    Which brings us to the paradox of Lord A.

    On his constituency polls, Labour are heading for 50 seat gains from the Tories.
    On his national polls, the Tories are on to a majority.

    Some of those contituency polls are a few months old, though? If all re-polled, wonder if we'd see a similar picture re. the national poll
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ashcroft is one of those New Kids On The Block, seemingly Hangin' Tough, yet untested at a real election?

    :)

    Well, no.

    He is one of the old kids on the block - usually ICM for the national polls as far as I can tell, though the situation is as clear as mud.

    When I see the words "Lord Ashcroft Poll" I think "This is a dog license with the word 'dog' crossed out and the word 'cat' written in in crayon."
  • JohnO said:

    So Blues ahead with ICM, Lord A, Survation, Omnium, Comres?
    And Reds ahead with YouGov, Populus, MORI, Panelbase and TNS?

    We do need another MORI....for quality control purposes.

    I'm hopeful we'll get another Ipsos Mori this week
  • Pulpstar said:

    Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very difficult to reconcile.

    Again this raises the question, is the company doing the national poll the same as the company or companies doing the individual seat polls? Looking at this I would suggest the answer is no. The lack of transparency is quite unsatisfactory when people are betting a lot of money on these polls.

    None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
    The SW only accounts for 8% of the UK population and 10% of the population of England. The Tories would have to be doing exceptionally well there to offset a drop everywhere else
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Meanwhile the Ashcroft focus group was asked who would play each party leader in a film of their life:

    David Cameron: Hugh Grant

    LOL....I know Hugh Grant's career has gone down hill, but can you imagine him signing up to play Cameron is a positive film about him?

    Who plays Ed - apart from the obvious choice of Wallace?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very difficult to reconcile.

    Again this raises the question, is the company doing the national poll the same as the company or companies doing the individual seat polls? Looking at this I would suggest the answer is no. The lack of transparency is quite unsatisfactory when people are betting a lot of money on these polls.

    None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
    There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
    That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very difficult to reconcile.

    Again this raises the question, is the company doing the national poll the same as the company or companies doing the individual seat polls? Looking at this I would suggest the answer is no. The lack of transparency is quite unsatisfactory when people are betting a lot of money on these polls.

    None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
    There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
    Popping over to do some door knocking In Kingston tonight..i will be interested to see what the vibe is like. Not saying Davey will deffo lose but it is tighter there than the last Ashcroft poll in Nov 14
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2015

    Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very difficult to reconcile.

    Again this raises the question, is the company doing the national poll the same as the company or companies doing the individual seat polls? Looking at this I would suggest the answer is no. The lack of transparency is quite unsatisfactory when people are betting a lot of money on these polls.

    The England only swing in Ashcroft's national poll is 3.25%, so not that different from his constituency polls. The incorrect Wales and Scotland sub samples can mess up the topline of phone polls quite a bit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,540
    Throughout the campaign, telephone polls have given the following results:-

    Ashcroft Con +2%, Tie, Con +4%, Con +6%.

    ComRes Con +4%, Con +1%, Con +4%.

    ICM Con +6%, Con +2%, Con +3%.

    MORI Lab +2%.

    An average Conservative lead of 3%. That's a very different picture from the internet panels. If this was 2005, when Yougov were the only internet pollster. discussion would now be centering on whether the Conservatives would win enough seats to form a government. No one would be doubting they'd come first.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. D, at school a classmate of mine was a barman. When filling out his university forms he entered his occupation as 'beverage dispensing technician'.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015

    Speedy said:

    Even though UKIP is falling rapidly in the constituency polls, that fall has not benefited the Tories, instead it splits evenly between them and Labour so the swings are pretty much the same.
    Today on the 3 Tory seats the swing to LAB is 3.5% on average, the same as the previous 23 constituency polls of Tory seats since the campaign began.
    Which brings us to the paradox of Lord A.

    On his constituency polls, Labour are heading for 50 seat gains from the Tories.
    On his national polls, the Tories are on to a majority.

    Some of those contituency polls are a few months old, though? If all re-polled, wonder if we'd see a similar picture re. the national poll
    The clue is "since the campaign began".
    Since the beginning of this month there have been 26 constituency polls in Tory seats of straight Tory vs Lab fights, all of them show a pretty similar picture with the average swing to Labour of 3% ex-London and 7% in London, that is 50 Labour gains from the Tories.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    acf2310 said:

    Cannock Chase was a slightly odd gain in 2010 because Aidan Burley worked very hard.

    It will now be a loss because Aidan Burley was an unmitigated disaster.

    taffys said:

    Cannock Chase shows graphically where the tory problem is. Actually quite worrying for Con. And for UKIP, who could well cop part of the blame for letting in the fragrant Nicola.

    Probably, but 2/1 on the Tories in light of Q1 looks fair.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. B, Rowan Atkinson.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Tim_B said:

    Who plays Ed - apart from the obvious choice of Wallace?

    Since he will be playing the role of "The Gimp", get the same guy
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very difficult to reconcile.

    Again this raises the question, is the company doing the national poll the same as the company or companies doing the individual seat polls? Looking at this I would suggest the answer is no. The lack of transparency is quite unsatisfactory when people are betting a lot of money on these polls.

    None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
    There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
    Bristol NW;
    Kingswood;
    Somerset NE;
    Camborne & Redruth;
    Taunton Deane;
    Mid Dorset and North Poole

    I suspect the Blues would be a mile ahead in Truro and Falmouth, they could well be knocking on the door in Bath too. Only the stickiest of yellow peril incumbents will survive the Bluewash down there.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.

    If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.

    I wonder if this is sinking in....
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Mr. B, Rowan Atkinson.

    Mr Bean, I assume, not Blackadder.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015
    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile the Ashcroft focus group was asked who would play each party leader in a film of their life:

    David Cameron: Hugh Grant

    LOL....I know Hugh Grant's career has gone down hill, but can you imagine him signing up to play Cameron is a positive film about him?

    Who plays Ed - apart from the obvious choice of Wallace?
    Ed Miliband: Woody Allen

    According to the focus group...
  • taffys said:

    Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.

    If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.

    I wonder if this is sinking in....

    I think you will find Mr. Cameron has so antagonised the Kippers, they would not trust him with a referendum.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very difficult to reconcile.

    Again this raises the question, is the company doing the national poll the same as the company or companies doing the individual seat polls? Looking at this I would suggest the answer is no. The lack of transparency is quite unsatisfactory when people are betting a lot of money on these polls.

    None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
    There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
    That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
    What gaping hole , on the last thread SeanT bigged up the Wales and South West subsample this week with Conservatives at 40% , he conveniently ignored last weeks equivalent sub sample with them at meltdown in Wales and South West at just 23% . Sub samples are no evidence for anything and the likelihood is that the Conservatives are doing no better or worse in the South West than nationally .
  • JGCJGC Posts: 64

    Speedy said:

    Even though UKIP is falling rapidly in the constituency polls, that fall has not benefited the Tories, instead it splits evenly between them and Labour so the swings are pretty much the same.
    Today on the 3 Tory seats the swing to LAB is 3.5% on average, the same as the previous 23 constituency polls of Tory seats since the campaign began.
    Which brings us to the paradox of Lord A.

    On his constituency polls, Labour are heading for 50 seat gains from the Tories.
    On his national polls, the Tories are on to a majority.

    Some of those contituency polls are a few months old, though? If all re-polled, wonder if we'd see a similar picture re. the national poll
    No these three polls are published today, the fieldwork a couple of days old at most. It is most odd, not within moe. Either the methodology for the constituency polls is wrong or his national polls are. 11 days to go to find out which.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Anorak said:

    Mr Bean, I assume, not Blackadder.

    Blackadder the 1st
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    So, we know that some polls will be wrong.

    YG were spot on for Euros but that was PR; this is FPTP. Different gravy required.

    My own experience is that people focus the mind on the Monday before the following Thursday. So, this Wednesday polls, the phone variety, will be closest to the outcome.

    But 1992 proved that theory wrong. So, likely Weds phone polls will predicted most votes but not 100% . Seats of course is a different matter. Only England matters. Labour will have most seats if their vote % is same as Tories in England. Anything less and Tories will be biggest party. Tories need plus 12% for majority in Eng. Unlikely.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,540

    Its places like Grimsby where the UKIP vote is going to gift the election to the SNP.

    The Conservatives haven't won Grimsby since 1935. It would make more sense for Conservatives to switch behind UKIP.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    edited April 2015
    FPT Tissue_Price said:

    "But that's just two polls. All the evidence from recent polling is that there's a fundamental difference in outcome being generated by methodological differences [i.e. one or both of the methods are wrong], so I don't think the basic MOE statistical approach works at all."



    Yes - that is another source of error so the MOEs are even larger. It just shows how misleading a single number from a small sample poll is. One needs to look at quite large ranges - even larger than the ones I'm generating using the basic MOE statistical approach to allow for errors in methodology..

    Out of interest, the new Ashcroft national poll has a sample size of 558 and an MOE of 4.1%
    The confidence limits on Con are 31.9% to 40.1%.
    On Lab the limits are 25.9% to 34.1%. Either could be in the lead.

    If I look at all the limits of the three polls, the confidence limits that are consistent with all three are:
    Con 31.9% to 35.4%
    Lab 33.6% to 34.1%

    Midpoints Con 33.6% Lab 33.8%.

    Is anyone the wiser?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Eastbourne at 8-15 for the yellows is the bet of the election if you want to put your faith in Ashcroft Question 2 !
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very difficult to reconcile.

    Again this raises the question, is the company doing the national poll the same as the company or companies doing the individual seat polls? Looking at this I would suggest the answer is no. The lack of transparency is quite unsatisfactory when people are betting a lot of money on these polls.

    None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
    There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
    That's a nice security blanket you have. It looks lovely and warm, apart from the large gaping holes in it.
    What gaping hole , on the last thread SeanT bigged up the Wales and South West subsample this week with Conservatives at 40% , he conveniently ignored last weeks equivalent sub sample with them at meltdown in Wales and South West at just 23% . Sub samples are no evidence for anything and the likelihood is that the Conservatives are doing no better or worse in the South West than nationally .
    Are the LDs doing better or worse in the SW than nationally ?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Ashcroft's whores drawers results; well the drawers are well and truly down for the Blues.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    timmo said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm. The individual seat polls show the Cons losing a substantial vote share while the national poll has them level with their 2010 score. The two are very difficult to reconcile.

    Again this raises the question, is the company doing the national poll the same as the company or companies doing the individual seat polls? Looking at this I would suggest the answer is no. The lack of transparency is quite unsatisfactory when people are betting a lot of money on these polls.

    None of these constituency polls are in the Southwest. That area is golden for the blues.
    There is no evidence that the Conservatives are doing better nationally in the South West than elsewhere .
    Popping over to do some door knocking In Kingston tonight..i will be interested to see what the vibe is like. Not saying Davey will deffo lose but it is tighter there than the last Ashcroft poll in Nov 14
    Given up in Sutton and Cheam as well as Carshalton then Timmo . Yes I expect Kingston/Surbiton to be the tightest of the 3 seats .
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    In both the Ashcroft national and constituency polls the Con certainty to vote is quite a bit higher than that of Labour which may be a clue as to what will happen on the day.
  • The marginals fieldwork

    4,002 adults were interviewed by telephone between 15 and 24 April 2015 in the following constituencies:
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    taffys said:

    Kippers need to vote tactically if they want a EU referendum.

    If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.

    I wonder if this is sinking in....

    I think you will find Mr. Cameron has so antagonised the Kippers, they would not trust him with a referendum.
    Yes let's face it Cameron isn't that bothered about a referendum or he would have had one. If they do form a coalition with the Lib Dems 'no referendum' will no doubt be an early concession again.

  • RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    And, SPIN Has not moved one jot !

    Isn't spin quite bull for the blues? If so, this poll is already priced in!
    On IG Index Blues are 286.5-290.5, against 283-287 on SPIN
  • JGCJGC Posts: 64
    Looking at the tables for the 4 constituencies what is again apparent is how the Q1 & Q2 questions are converging. A few months back there was a noticeable difference between the national & local question, not now (which makes sense). This makes the difference with his national polls even odder
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    Anorak said:

    Mr. B, Rowan Atkinson.

    Mr Bean, I assume, not Blackadder.
    Johnny English :)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
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  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Snow in Edinburgh.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited April 2015
    Barnesian said:

    FPT Tissue_Price said:

    "But that's just two polls. All the evidence from recent polling is that there's a fundamental difference in outcome being generated by methodological differences [i.e. one or both of the methods are wrong], so I don't think the basic MOE statistical approach works at all."



    Yes - that is another source of error so the MOEs are even larger. It just shows how misleading a single number from a small sample poll is. One needs to look at quite large ranges - even larger than the ones I'm generating using the basic MOE statistical approach to allow for errors in methodology..

    Out of interest, the new Ashcroft national poll has a sample size of 558 and an MOE of 4.1%
    The confidence limits on Con are 31.9% to 40.1%.
    On Lab the limits are 25.9% to 34.1%. Either could be in the lead.

    If I look at all the limits of the three polls, the confidence limits that are consistent with all three are:
    Con 31.9% to 35.4%
    Lab 33.6% to 34.1%

    Midpoints Con 33.6% Lab 33.8%.

    Is anyone the wiser?

    Out of interest, the new Ashcroft national poll has a sample size of 558 and an MOE of 4.1%
    The confidence limits on Con are 31.9% to 40.1%.
    On Lab the limits are 25.9% to 34.1%. Either could be in the lead.
    ---------

    Thanks, Barnesian. Why does anyone take Ashcroft National polls seriously ? I believe the constituency polls have a sample size of 1000.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    edited April 2015
    Alistair said:

    Snow in Edinburgh.

    Where's yer global warming now? :)
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Cons six ahead...what a lark hey..
This discussion has been closed.