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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON 6% lead in latest Ashcroft national poll while in new seat polls UKIP continues to struggle
CON move to 6% lead in @LordAshcroft national poll
CON 36+2
LAB 30=
LD 9-1
UKIP 11-2
GN 7+3
0
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Ashcroft national poll:
Baxter say's a Con majority of 2!
EMWNBPM or EICINPM
Is why a named poll would be useful.
And so to the bigger question, namely who would play whom in Nicola Sturgeon: The Movie. The starring role, by common consent, would go to Dame Helen Mirren or, if the producers insisted on a Scot, Elaine C. Smith. Jim Murphy would be played by Peter Capaldi from The Thick Of It, or Jim Carrey, or (more encouragingly) Ewan McGregor. Sue Perkins or Rhona Cameron would play Ruth Davidson, and Scottish Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie would be portrayed by “a gentlemanly quiet person” like Geoffrey Palmer or Ashley from Emmerdale. David Cameron would be Hugh Grant or Colin Firth. What about Ed Miliband? “Woody Allen”. Ooft.
This election is truly weird.
8.5 NW City of Chester
8.0 YH Great Grimsby – LAB SEAT
7.5 NW Crewe and Nantwich
7.0 GL Finchley and Golders Green
7.0 SW Bristol W – LIB DEM SEAT
6.5 WM Cannock Chase
6.0 EM Milton Keynes South
5.5 GL Harrow East
5.5 NW Wirral west
5.0 EM Nuneaton
5.0 GL Croydon Central
5.0 SE Hove
5.0 NW Rossendale and Darwen
5.0 NW South Ribble
4.5 YH Colne Valley
4.0 EE Great Yarmouth
4.0 NW Morecambe and Lunesdale
4.0 SE Rochester ad Strood
4.0 SW South Swindon
3.5 SE Southampton Itchen - LAB SEAT
3.5 EM High Peak
3.5 YH Cleethorpes
3.0 NE Stockton South
3.0 WM Dudley South
3.0 WM Halesowen
2.0 NW Pendle
1.5 YH Pudsey
1.5 SW Bristol NW
1.0 SE Dover
0.5 EE Harlow
0.5 EE Thurrock
0.5 EM Loughborough
0.5 NW Blackpool North
0.5 SW Gloucester
0.5 SW Worcester
0.0 EE Castle Point
-2.0 SW Kingswood
-3.5 SW NE Somerset
Woody Allen - lolz.
The online pollsters have Labour ahead, bar Survation and Opinium.
Maybe some bright spark labour spads have worked out labour is now an English party.
' Hang on a sec, Jocasta, isn;t England actually....er.....pretty conservative.'
'yikes...'
Again this raises the question, is the company doing the national poll the same as the company or companies doing the individual seat polls? Looking at this I would suggest the answer is no. The lack of transparency is quite unsatisfactory when people are betting a lot of money on these polls.
https://freehdwallpaper.in/walls/squirrel-jump-normal.jpg
Weighing up whether to ever-so-accidentally knock it off the table...
Today on the 3 Tory seats the swing to LAB is 3.5% on average, the same as the previous 23 constituency polls of Tory seats since the campaign began.
Which brings us to the paradox of Lord A.
On his constituency polls, Labour are heading for 50 seat gains from the Tories.
On his national polls, the Tories are on to a majority.
On any of the swings in the constituency polls the tories cant get enough seats to hang on, even if they hold seats like Gt Yarmouth
May2015 Election @May2015NS
Ukip fading in key seats—& Lab doing better than thought. @LordAshcroft seat polls paint diff pic to his 6pt headline
If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.
It will now be a loss because Aidan Burley was an unmitigated disaster.
To be fair, Schweizer has not claimed to have direct evidence of any quid pro quo but merely points out the facts and connections.
As a result the Foundation has announced it will be refiling several years of tax returns.
If Schweizer's information is accurate, it looks like the Clinton Campaign and Foundation might have some issues to answer.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/04/27/behind-the-man-who-outed-clinton-s-cash.html
David Cameron: Hugh Grant
LOL....I know Hugh Grant's career has gone down hill, but can you imagine him signing up to play Cameron is a positive film about him?
And Reds ahead with YouGov, Populus, MORI, Panelbase and TNS?
We do need another MORI....for quality control purposes.
PS I've just completed a yougov for the British election Survey with another to follow soon. Could be a polling turning point
He is one of the old kids on the block - usually ICM for the national polls as far as I can tell, though the situation is as clear as mud.
When I see the words "Lord Ashcroft Poll" I think "This is a dog license with the word 'dog' crossed out and the word 'cat' written in in crayon."
Ashcroft Con +2%, Tie, Con +4%, Con +6%.
ComRes Con +4%, Con +1%, Con +4%.
ICM Con +6%, Con +2%, Con +3%.
MORI Lab +2%.
An average Conservative lead of 3%. That's a very different picture from the internet panels. If this was 2005, when Yougov were the only internet pollster. discussion would now be centering on whether the Conservatives would win enough seats to form a government. No one would be doubting they'd come first.
Since the beginning of this month there have been 26 constituency polls in Tory seats of straight Tory vs Lab fights, all of them show a pretty similar picture with the average swing to Labour of 3% ex-London and 7% in London, that is 50 Labour gains from the Tories.
Kingswood;
Somerset NE;
Camborne & Redruth;
Taunton Deane;
Mid Dorset and North Poole
I suspect the Blues would be a mile ahead in Truro and Falmouth, they could well be knocking on the door in Bath too. Only the stickiest of yellow peril incumbents will survive the Bluewash down there.
If they want McMarxist overlords then carry on.
I wonder if this is sinking in....
According to the focus group...
YG were spot on for Euros but that was PR; this is FPTP. Different gravy required.
My own experience is that people focus the mind on the Monday before the following Thursday. So, this Wednesday polls, the phone variety, will be closest to the outcome.
But 1992 proved that theory wrong. So, likely Weds phone polls will predicted most votes but not 100% . Seats of course is a different matter. Only England matters. Labour will have most seats if their vote % is same as Tories in England. Anything less and Tories will be biggest party. Tories need plus 12% for majority in Eng. Unlikely.
"But that's just two polls. All the evidence from recent polling is that there's a fundamental difference in outcome being generated by methodological differences [i.e. one or both of the methods are wrong], so I don't think the basic MOE statistical approach works at all."
Yes - that is another source of error so the MOEs are even larger. It just shows how misleading a single number from a small sample poll is. One needs to look at quite large ranges - even larger than the ones I'm generating using the basic MOE statistical approach to allow for errors in methodology..
Out of interest, the new Ashcroft national poll has a sample size of 558 and an MOE of 4.1%
The confidence limits on Con are 31.9% to 40.1%.
On Lab the limits are 25.9% to 34.1%. Either could be in the lead.
If I look at all the limits of the three polls, the confidence limits that are consistent with all three are:
Con 31.9% to 35.4%
Lab 33.6% to 34.1%
Midpoints Con 33.6% Lab 33.8%.
Is anyone the wiser?
4,002 adults were interviewed by telephone between 15 and 24 April 2015 in the following constituencies:
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http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/if-ed-miliband-makes-islamophobia-illegal-i-volunteer-to-test-the-new-law-immediately/
The confidence limits on Con are 31.9% to 40.1%.
On Lab the limits are 25.9% to 34.1%. Either could be in the lead.
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Thanks, Barnesian. Why does anyone take Ashcroft National polls seriously ? I believe the constituency polls have a sample size of 1000.