politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Deputy PM after the election betting
Comments
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From the man himself on the programme and his disappointment of the little effect the programme had with halting Thatcher "“I knew the series wasn’t going to change anything. I just hoped it was going to open people’s eyes and make them think. People have asked ‘How important do you think it was to British political life?’ I just point to the next General Election result – a landslide victory for Margaret Thatcher in 1983.”Ishmael_X said:
Not necessarily.compouter2 said:
Just agree with him,he is re-writing history. Blackstuff was written pre-Thatcher, Boys from the Blackstuff was written when Thatcher was PM. But hey, don't let them there facts get in the way.Theuniondivvie said:
No it wasn't.notme said:
Boys From The Blackstuff managed to represent the evils of Thatcherism, despite it being written before she took power.oldpolitics said:
Labour in the 1970s caused something to happen in the 1950s? No wonder Timelords vote Labour.Richard_Nabavi said:
The answer is not to destroy the market in the first place.Cyclefree said:Isn' the answer to intimidation not to give into it, rather than the opposite?
Labour's rent controls of the 1970s were the worst single thing that any government has done in the 50 years I've been watching politics. An utter, unmitigated, no-holds-barred disaster, with no upside whatsoever. They effectively wiped out the rental market, and as a result many properties were left empty. They created Rachmanism.
"The television play The Black Stuff was originally written by Bleasdale for BBC1's Play for Today anthology series in 1978. After filming however, the play languished untransmitted until being screened on 2 January 1980.[2] It concerned a group of Liverpudlian tarmac layers (hence slang: 'the black stuff') on a job near Middlesbrough.
The acclaim that The Black Stuff received on its eventual transmission led to the commissioning of the sequel serial, of which Bleasdale had already written a considerable amount.". (My emphasis).0 -
One of my favourite partisan tactics, not much in evidence yet but I hope to see it, is when something is near universally seen as good for one side, and the truly committed on the other one try to argue that, actually its not, because while it is good, that means that side will seem like it has a chance to win, which will scare decent, thinking people into voting for them, thus meaning it is had for the person who proposed the initial action.0
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Lynton Crosby is a political genius!Tykejohnno said:Jack Blanchard @Jack_Blanchard_ ·
Ten days to go. Labour unveil major policy, offering huge tax cut for first-time buyers. Tories unveil, well, another letter in a newspaper
Yep,looks like labour getting on the front foot again.0 -
The flaw in this new 'invent a policy' policy by Labour is that the give-aways are not confined to Scotland only with knobs on.FrancisUrquhart said:
It seems it is more like they are sat their with the test paper still mostly empty and now they are cribbing from other classmates and answers from an exam paper from 50 years ago.antifrank said:John Rentoul sums up most of my view in two tweets:
@JohnRentoul: Rent controls to shrink rental sector. Tuition fee cut for richer graduates. Freeze for falling energy prices. Anti-market superficial folly
@JohnRentoul: Windfall gains for sellers of entry-level houses. Inane, stupid and, no doubt, very popular. http://t.co/PMj3WB0zad
My additional point is that Labour apparently feel the need to be developing their policy post-manifesto launch. That is not an act of confident leadership.0 -
TERMINOLOGY QUESTION
===============
Guys, quick question.
1) You know the bookies "Betfair Exchange" and "SpreadEx"? Would you refer to them as spread betting?
2) Does the term "full book" mean "the odds offered by a bookie on all outcomes of a given event"?0 -
Shows endemic LWB of Yougov.asjohnstone said:
No one thinks the Greens are going to really poll 5% do they ?GIN1138 said:
Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 8s 8 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%0 -
Good headline front page of the times for labour.
Neil Henderson @hendopolis ·
THE TIMES: Labour's sweetener to help buy first home #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers
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Sadly many young people are so financially illiterate they don't understand that the current system is effectively a graduate tax on the richer (i.e. higher income) graduates. So there's an argument for cutting fees in terms of widening access - though not a strong one, since student numbers have not been very much affected by the fees rise, and no doubt it's a stronger argument for better financial education than anything else.antifrank said:John Rentoul sums up most of my view in two tweets:
@JohnRentoul: Rent controls to shrink rental sector. Tuition fee cut for richer graduates. Freeze for falling energy prices. Anti-market superficial folly
@JohnRentoul: Windfall gains for sellers of entry-level houses. Inane, stupid and, no doubt, very popular. http://t.co/PMj3WB0zad
My additional point is that Labour apparently feel the need to be developing their policy post-manifesto launch. That is not an act of confident leadership.
It's the superficiality, rather than the anti-marketism, which gets me. There is a perfectly effective anti-market strategy for giving everybody housing: get the government to take over the provision of housing. Nationalise the housing stock. Reallocate all second homes. Spare rooms in underoccupied homes should be rented out, or houses reallocated. Do it drastically enough and there's almost no need for new stock anyway. Vote Social People's Communist Party (Marxist-Leninst) (1987-split Left Unity Faction) or the Monbiotista wing of the Green Party.
Instead we seem to be getting back-of-fag-packet headline-seeking "radicalism". It's not very impressive.
Still, it does make me glad I decided against getting into BTL a few years back - landlords seem to be becoming everybody's most-hated rentier class, and an easy bunch to blame for deeper underlying problems, and I reckoned there was too much risk (particularly political risk) involved to be worth the effort. Some changes to the tax incentives would make BTL yields a whole lot less attractive and I'd be surprised if we get through the next parliament without that. Grasping the nettle of the more severe structural problems, I fully expect to remain several parliaments away. As far away as all those garden cities we were promised by Labour's 1997 incarnation...0 -
YOU CAN TAKE MY POSTAL VOTES BUT YOU WILL NEVER TAKE MY SWIIIIIIIIIIIINGBACK!IOS said:Another Labour lead in YOU GOV. Another day of postal votes cast. Another 24 hours of Ed getting closer to No. 10.
Goodnight all.0 -
Lol!Cyclefree said:All these polls are like an interminable cricket match. Endless playing, lots of oohs and aahs and at the end it's still a bloody draw.
Still, take heart, only 10 more YouGovs to go before stumps are drawn.
By the way, when did "mid-term" end? When psephologists look back at the last five years, they'll see it as a rare period when the opposition didn't gain a mass of frothy votes and then lose them again.
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Even if we left the EU unless UKIP are planning on kicking out a lot of recent migrants our population will still be going up sharply. We are going to need a load of new homes whatever we do.david_kendrick1 said:There is one mainstream party with a cogent housing policy. UKIP. Quit the EU, and scale back unskilled immigration substantially. There are too many people, rather than too few houses.
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Its amusing seeing the right wing wake up to just how crap Cameron is.
The Tories just can't open up the votes like they thought they would. Anyway they have another letter in a paper. Nice one guys.0 -
The tax free range is "up to £125,000", and the average first time buyer pays £175,000.Dair said:
And utterly pointless.murali_s said:Scrapping Stamp Duty for first time buyers - both populist and helpful - vote winner!
How many First Time Buyers are purchasing property outside of the tax free range?
So I would say "most of them, probably".0 -
ICM.....Labour lead....... :-)acf2310 said:Is there an ICM tomorrow?
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If you're the child of middle class parents and you live within the M25, the answer is "all of them". Now you know where the "metropolitan elite" meme comes from...:-(Dair said:
And utterly pointless.murali_s said:Scrapping Stamp Duty for first time buyers - both populist and helpful - vote winner!
How many First Time Buyers are purchasing property outside of the tax free range?
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Compouter
You have to admire Crosby. A grade A fck up of a campaign.0 -
Really? Really? Really?NickPalmer said:
Lol!Cyclefree said:All these polls are like an interminable cricket match. Endless playing, lots of oohs and aahs and at the end it's still a bloody draw.
Still, take heart, only 10 more YouGovs to go before stumps are drawn.
By the way, when did "mid-term" end? When psephologists look back at the last five years, they'll see it as a rare period when the opposition didn't gain a mass of frothy votes and then lose them again.
Labour were polling in the mid 40s in 2012/13.
Now they are not.0 -
Dr Fox does not understand or forgets that HS2 will free up the MLWC for more and/or more regular and on time 'commuter' type capacity.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Freudian slip there by Dr Fox!!bigjohnowls said:foxinsoxuk said:
» show previous quotes
And it is the flaw in HS2. If there is nobstation between Central London and Central Birmingham then no one can get on or off. We need more commuter line capacity than long distance.
Nobstation!!
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This Labour stuff on housing doesn't quite match up to Dave's HA giveaways.
They're both a nonsense anyway and will be "traded off" as soon as post election negotiations begin.0 -
Cameron - the most over rated politician of the post war era. Maybe Osborne beats him.0
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It will be the last #megapollingmonday of the campaign tomorrow (due to bank holiday monday the following week) with Populus, Lord A, ICM and YouGov....
#bringit0 -
There are some. Plenty, in fact. But I'm not sure they're quite the folk that John Prescott/Clement Attlee/Tony Benn/Nye Bevan/take-ye-thine-pick thought the Party Of The Working Man was in the business of chucking freebies at.Dair said:
And utterly pointless.murali_s said:Scrapping Stamp Duty for first time buyers - both populist and helpful - vote winner!
How many First Time Buyers are purchasing property outside of the tax free range?0 -
True. But we need a policy in place that does not require us to build 2 new cities the size of Cambridge every year for.... ever.glw said:
Even if we left the EU unless UKIP are planning on kicking out a lot of recent migrants our population will still be going up sharply. We are going to need a load of new homes whatever we do.david_kendrick1 said:There is one mainstream party with a cogent housing policy. UKIP. Quit the EU, and scale back unskilled immigration substantially. There are too many people, rather than too few houses.
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And it would be funny. as . hell. if Cameron has managed to lose the DUP in a potential coalition....!0
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1. Spreadex is mainly spread betting, although they also offer fixed odds (ie, *normal*) bets too. There are only 2 spreadbetting companies (that offer markets on sports/politics) - spreadex & sporting index. Betfair is not spreadbetting.viewcode said:TERMINOLOGY QUESTION
===============
Guys, quick question.
1) You know the bookies "Betfair Exchange" and "SpreadEx"? Would you refer to them as spread betting?
2) Does the term "full book" mean "the odds offered by a bookie on all outcomes of a given event"?
2. Don't know about "full book" tbh - it depends on the context. It could mean different things.0 -
What was his running around Westminster starko for, EICIPM or UKIP 6% or above. Or was it both?Tykejohnno said:
Dan Hodges ✔ @DPJHodges
Labour spent 5 years telling us "Only the rich can get on the housing ladder". Now they've announced "so we'll give them a tax cut".0 -
3.5% lead on vote share.bigjohnowls said:
What odds?
You project as a confident man. How much do you fancy Ed?0 -
No; Yesviewcode said:TERMINOLOGY QUESTION
===============
Guys, quick question.
1) You know the bookies "Betfair Exchange" and "SpreadEx"? Would you refer to them as spread betting?
2) Does the term "full book" mean "the odds offered by a bookie on all outcomes of a given event"?
Yes. You want to look at this when a market is given, it is quite common for there to be a sub 100% book which means that one of the options must be value. The trick is then to work out which one, or you can back both sides for a small return.0 -
You're figures can't be right.oldpolitics said:
The tax free range is "up to £125,000", and the average first time buyer pays £175,000.Dair said:
And utterly pointless.murali_s said:Scrapping Stamp Duty for first time buyers - both populist and helpful - vote winner!
How many First Time Buyers are purchasing property outside of the tax free range?
So I would say "most of them, probably".
In Scotland the threshold to start paying Land and Buildings Transaction Tax is £145k. I doubt it is lower in England and Wales. £145k will buy a pretty decent detached starter home and most flats outside central Edinburgh.0 -
UKIP > 6% but he has, sadly (or maybe fortunately), since clarified that the bet is void in the event of Farage appearing "in the debates", which I guess he will argue Farage did.compouter2 said:
What was his running around Westminster starko for, EICIPM or UKIP 6% or above. Or was it both?Tykejohnno said:
Dan Hodges ✔ @DPJHodges
Labour spent 5 years telling us "Only the rich can get on the housing ladder". Now they've announced "so we'll give them a tax cut".0 -
No,what would be funny is our Dave still PM after the GE and you coming on here ;-) now that would be funny - lolIOS said:And it would be funny. as . hell. if Cameron has managed to lose the DUP in a potential coalition....!
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I question that - Maybe I just missed it, but I don't recall Cameron receiving ridiculous amounts of hyperbole about what a great leader he would be and how by his mere presence would he heal the nation or other such crap (Yes I am exaggerating, but I think we could name leaders who have received such praise before their terms) even when his people expected him to win a majority. If anything, Cameron's problem has been he was always seen as merely servicable and the best of a bad bunch by many in his own parliamentary party given the way they rebelled against.IOS said:Cameron - the most over rated politician of the post war era.
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Check out the betfair Tory lines. Market is absurdly confident that result will be where the models currently say it will be. Bookies central 25-seat bands getting driven down to evens.Pulpstar said:
3.75 is crazy - I mean with Scotland the Tories probably will win most seats, but the price is madness.asjohnstone said:
Last matched price is still 3.75, no movement in Next PM market. Doesn't imply much is happening. I think the market has factored in 2% Yougov leadsMikeL said:Labour Most seats just came in from 3.75 to 3.65 - suggests good YouGov for Lab.
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Tyke
I will be here no matter what the result :-)0 -
One tie,one Tory lead, two Labour lead.EICIPM nudges ever closer.GIN1138 said:It will be the last #megapollingmonday of the campaign tomorrow (due to bank holiday monday the following week) with Populus, Lord A, ICM and YouGov....
#bringit0 -
Old Politics.
Is that a joke. UKIP have done nothing this election - their support was built up before the short campaign. If anything I am convinced the debates harmed UKIP!0 -
The threshold is £125,000 bu the average first time buyer figure is hugely distorted by London.Dair said:
You're figures can't be right.oldpolitics said:
The tax free range is "up to £125,000", and the average first time buyer pays £175,000.Dair said:
And utterly pointless.murali_s said:Scrapping Stamp Duty for first time buyers - both populist and helpful - vote winner!
How many First Time Buyers are purchasing property outside of the tax free range?
So I would say "most of them, probably".
In Scotland the threshold to start paying Land and Buildings Transaction Tax is £145k. I doubt it is lower in England and Wales. £145k will buy a pretty decent detached starter home and most flats outside central Edinburgh.0 -
You can doubt all you want, but they are correct.Dair said:
You're figures can't be right.oldpolitics said:
The tax free range is "up to £125,000", and the average first time buyer pays £175,000.Dair said:
And utterly pointless.murali_s said:Scrapping Stamp Duty for first time buyers - both populist and helpful - vote winner!
How many First Time Buyers are purchasing property outside of the tax free range?
So I would say "most of them, probably".
In Scotland the threshold to start paying Land and Buildings Transaction Tax is £145k. I doubt it is lower in England and Wales. £145k will buy a pretty decent detached starter home and most flats outside central Edinburgh.
http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/mortgages/stamp-duty
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Indeed, I never thought there wouldn't be any. But those it will "benefit" are the wealthy at the top of the scale and/or those getting help from mummy and daddy.MyBurningEars said:
There are some. Plenty, in fact. But I'm not sure they're quite the folk that John Prescott/Clement Attlee/Tony Benn/Nye Bevan/take-ye-thine-pick thought the Party Of The Working Man was in the business of chucking freebies at.Dair said:
And utterly pointless.murali_s said:Scrapping Stamp Duty for first time buyers - both populist and helpful - vote winner!
How many First Time Buyers are purchasing property outside of the tax free range?
It is at best a middle class tax giveaway at worst regressive taxation policy. Neither is very Labour and it does absolutely nothing to address any market failures.0 -
Tories 3.5% vote lead looks about a 3.5 (5/2)shot to me but I am happier making money on the EICIPM market and the Lab most seats market.chestnut said:
3.5% lead on vote share.bigjohnowls said:
What odds?
You project as a confident man. How much do you fancy Ed?
Fancy Ed? Only in a #milifandom way.0 -
Miliband bowls another googly. The Tories just can't read anything from his action.
The Tories are on the defensive. Miliband on a roll.0 -
It's Dan Hodges. I leave you to determine whether it's a joke.IOS said:Old Politics.
Is that a joke. UKIP have done nothing this election - their support was built up before the short campaign. If anything I am convinced the debates harmed UKIP!0 -
Last 25 band bet I made was Conservative 276-300 @ 6-4. Evens sounds skinny though.Tissue_Price said:
Check out the betfair Tory lines. Market is absurdly confident that result will be where the models currently say it will be. Bookies central 25-seat bands getting driven down to evens.Pulpstar said:
3.75 is crazy - I mean with Scotland the Tories probably will win most seats, but the price is madness.asjohnstone said:
Last matched price is still 3.75, no movement in Next PM market. Doesn't imply much is happening. I think the market has factored in 2% Yougov leadsMikeL said:Labour Most seats just came in from 3.75 to 3.65 - suggests good YouGov for Lab.
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The Rains of Castamere are falling on Cammo and Milipede alike. Hopefully it will be a sound drenching, resulting in some new blooms to brighten the landscape.0
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Actually it is closer to three per year, or a Birmingham every 30 months or so.david_kendrick1 said:
True. But we need a policy in place that does not require us to build 2 new cities the size of Cambridge every year for.... ever.glw said:
Even if we left the EU unless UKIP are planning on kicking out a lot of recent migrants our population will still be going up sharply. We are going to need a load of new homes whatever we do.david_kendrick1 said:There is one mainstream party with a cogent housing policy. UKIP. Quit the EU, and scale back unskilled immigration substantially. There are too many people, rather than too few houses.
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On the subject of making really firm predictions and being proven wrong on 7 May, I should clarify once more that I will be unavailable May 7th and probably all of May 8th as well due to commitments, so if I am dead wrong about this being an easy Labour plurality (and that a walk-back from 4.5 years of predicting a Labour majority, thank you very much SNP) and in fact somehow Cameron emerges as having the most seats (or even more amazingly, enough to form a government of some sort as well), my temporary absence will not be due to embarrassment at my lack of predictive skill.0
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"Betfair" (https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics) and "Betfair Exchange" (https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490) are not the same thing. Does that make a difference?Pong said:
1. Spreadex is mainly spread betting, although they also offer fixed odds (ie, *normal*) bets too. There are only 2 spreadbetting companies (that offer markets on sports/politics) - spreadex & sporting index. Betfair is not spreadbetting.
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Mili stampede..nonsense from Mirror.
Silly sod needs to address supply of land for housebuilding, planning regulations. Stamping his feet won't solve the problem.0 -
Thank you, that is most helpful. Do my remarks below about the difference between "Betfair" and "Betfair Exchange" modify your answer?Pulpstar said:
No; Yesviewcode said:TERMINOLOGY QUESTION
===============
Guys, quick question.
1) You know the bookies "Betfair Exchange" and "SpreadEx"? Would you refer to them as spread betting?
2) Does the term "full book" mean "the odds offered by a bookie on all outcomes of a given event"?
Yes. You want to look at this when a market is given, it is quite common for there to be a sub 100% book which means that one of the options must be value. The trick is then to work out which one, or you can back both sides for a small return.
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I'm surprised the English figure is so much lower than Scotland. That's truly bizarre but I guess Gideon wanted to keep the high end as low as possible for their friends.Grandiose said:
The threshold is £125,000 bu the average first time buyer figure is hugely distorted by London.Dair said:
You're figures can't be right.oldpolitics said:
The tax free range is "up to £125,000", and the average first time buyer pays £175,000.Dair said:
And utterly pointless.murali_s said:Scrapping Stamp Duty for first time buyers - both populist and helpful - vote winner!
How many First Time Buyers are purchasing property outside of the tax free range?
So I would say "most of them, probably".
In Scotland the threshold to start paying Land and Buildings Transaction Tax is £145k. I doubt it is lower in England and Wales. £145k will buy a pretty decent detached starter home and most flats outside central Edinburgh.0 -
Not really. There are some spread-style markets on Betfair now and then but not properly. A simpler way of looking at it is that traditional betting you are betting on whether something will happen, yes or no, at given odds. Spread betting your win or loss is determined not by 'yes or no' (usually) but by how much of it.viewcode said:
"Betfair" (https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics) and "Betfair Exchange" (https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490) are not the same thing. Does that make a difference?Pong said:
1. Spreadex is mainly spread betting, although they also offer fixed odds (ie, *normal*) bets too. There are only 2 spreadbetting companies (that offer markets on sports/politics) - spreadex & sporting index. Betfair is not spreadbetting.
So say you bet on UKIP to win more than 5 seats, that's either 'yes or no' (traditional betting) - you win £30 if they do and £10 if they don't, or it's "up or down" (spread betting) - you lose £10 if they get 4, £20 if they get 3, £30 if they get 2, but win £10 if they get 6, £20 if they get 7, and so on.0 -
Why not ? Only 2.2% of Britain has been built on. There is more than enough space. Get rid of the Nimby's.david_kendrick1 said:
True. But we need a policy in place that does not require us to build 2 new cities the size of Cambridge every year for.... ever.glw said:
Even if we left the EU unless UKIP are planning on kicking out a lot of recent migrants our population will still be going up sharply. We are going to need a load of new homes whatever we do.david_kendrick1 said:There is one mainstream party with a cogent housing policy. UKIP. Quit the EU, and scale back unskilled immigration substantially. There are too many people, rather than too few houses.
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57 varieties of tax and spend policies from Labour.FrancisUrquhart said:
Only 1 million....I remember when it was much grander sounding numbers..bigjohnowls said:Sunny Hundal @sunny_hundal · 18m 18 minutes ago
Labour party's biggest announcement (yet) tomorrow on one million new homes and social housing
Brown promises 3m new homes
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2007/jul/12/houseprices.communities0 -
10 days to go and there hasn't been a great deal of movement for weeks now. This will certainly be a fascinating election.Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
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Headlines say DUP ruling out pact with Tories over EVEL officially.
Who was it thought I was wrong on this?0 -
Betfair Exchange is generally where you want to be doing most of your "main" betting - Stuff like most seats etc as the price will be better. Liquid markets with alot of interest.viewcode said:
Thank you, that is most helpful. Do my remarks below about the difference between "Betfair" and "Betfair Exchange" modify your answer?Pulpstar said:
No; Yesviewcode said:TERMINOLOGY QUESTION
===============
Guys, quick question.
1) You know the bookies "Betfair Exchange" and "SpreadEx"? Would you refer to them as spread betting?
2) Does the term "full book" mean "the odds offered by a bookie on all outcomes of a given event"?
Yes. You want to look at this when a market is given, it is quite common for there to be a sub 100% book which means that one of the options must be value. The trick is then to work out which one, or you can back both sides for a small return.
Betfair Sportsbook is better for constituency markets, specials that sort of thing - where there won't be sufficient liquidity on teh exchange. But you're likely to be limited there whereas on the Exchange since they always take 5% it means noone gets limited or so forth.0 -
The terrifying prospect, for those who believe Brown saved the union, is that next time, there won't be any Scottish unionist of that stature. There will be a handful or two of backbenchers in whatever seats can be taken from the Nationalists, and an English Scotland Secretary, and that's it.SeanT said:
Scotland. Labour are on the verge of being wiped out in Scotland: their ancestral heartland, the birthplace of Keir Hardie. This will haunt them for the rest of time, and make overall Labour majorities difficult or impossible (as we see).IOS said:Cameron - the most over rated politician of the post war era. Maybe Osborne beats him.
For Cameron and Osborne to do as badly as that, electorally, they'd have to lose the Home Counties. They have not.
Cameron and Osborne are just mediocre. For truly terrible politicians, who damaged their party as much as they damaged the country, look to Blair and Brown.0 -
No movement in Yougov. Frozen stiff like a Siberian Mammoth caught in a January freeze.MP_SE said:
10 days to go and there hasn't been a great deal of movement for weeks now. This will certainly be a fascinating election.Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Is anyone doing a poll of polls minus yougov? It may well have some vslidity.
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The world does not live in Scotland , you know. A garage is worth more than £125.000 in London.Dair said:
And utterly pointless.murali_s said:Scrapping Stamp Duty for first time buyers - both populist and helpful - vote winner!
How many First Time Buyers are purchasing property outside of the tax free range?0 -
The man is ruthless and effective and the longer the Torys continue to ignore this and think pictures of him gagging on a bacon butty or a pint of mild will win them votes, the easier it makes it for him. Since they have made attacking Miliband their central plank of their whole campaign his figures have risen. Go Lynton!kle4 said:
Ed's tactics do appear to be superior, I'll given him that. He knows what he is after and he has a plan to get it.surbiton said:Miliband bowls another googly. The Tories just can't read anything from his action.
The Tories are on the defensive. Miliband on a roll.0 -
11% of England is urban, though. The green bits near where the need is are the ones most valued by the existing residents of the urban bits... quite tricky. They also tend to be near the most congested roads and the most undersupplied water and sewerage systems.surbiton said:
Why not ? Only 2.2% of Britain has been built on. There is more than enough space. Get rid of the Nimby's.david_kendrick1 said:
True. But we need a policy in place that does not require us to build 2 new cities the size of Cambridge every year for.... ever.glw said:
Even if we left the EU unless UKIP are planning on kicking out a lot of recent migrants our population will still be going up sharply. We are going to need a load of new homes whatever we do.david_kendrick1 said:There is one mainstream party with a cogent housing policy. UKIP. Quit the EU, and scale back unskilled immigration substantially. There are too many people, rather than too few houses.
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And you would think the tory high command would have been ready for this from labour,what the hell is Crosby getting paid for.kle4 said:
Ed's tactics do appear to be superior, I'll given him that. He knows what he is after and he has a plan to get it.surbiton said:Miliband bowls another googly. The Tories just can't read anything from his action.
The Tories are on the defensive. Miliband on a roll.
It seems this election tories always have to respond to labour policies.
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One SNP demand will be the closure of the Scotland Office and Dover House handed over to the Scottish Government as a Mission in London as a prelude to it becoming the Embassy of Scotland (should one ever be required - chortle).EPG said:
The terrifying prospect, for those who believe Brown saved the union, is that next time, there won't be any Scottish unionist of that stature. There will be a handful or two of backbenchers in whatever seats can be taken from the Nationalists, and an English Scotland Secretary, and that's it.SeanT said:
Scotland. Labour are on the verge of being wiped out in Scotland: their ancestral heartland, the birthplace of Keir Hardie. This will haunt them for the rest of time, and make overall Labour majorities difficult or impossible (as we see).IOS said:Cameron - the most over rated politician of the post war era. Maybe Osborne beats him.
For Cameron and Osborne to do as badly as that, electorally, they'd have to lose the Home Counties. They have not.
Cameron and Osborne are just mediocre. For truly terrible politicians, who damaged their party as much as they damaged the country, look to Blair and Brown.0 -
Hopefully only a matter of time. If All Scottish seats are competitive, that has to be a good thing for their democracy.SeanT said:
For Cameron and Osborne to do as badly as that, electorally, they'd have to lose the Home Counties. They have not.
Can't wait for the day where we have some truly competitive elections in Tory shires. Lazy sheep in blue rosettes are no good to anyone. They also need to be shaken.0 -
Don't think they are thinking up new policies as they go along. The policies were already thought out but deliberately designed to be released with a fortnight to go - one after another- giving the Tories too little time to attack them. Which one to attack ? The Tories will now be spending most of their time just criticising new policies from Labour - very little time to talk about their own - if they have any.Flightpath1 said:
The flaw in this new 'invent a policy' policy by Labour is that the give-aways are not confined to Scotland only with knobs on.FrancisUrquhart said:
It seems it is more like they are sat their with the test paper still mostly empty and now they are cribbing from other classmates and answers from an exam paper from 50 years ago.antifrank said:John Rentoul sums up most of my view in two tweets:
@JohnRentoul: Rent controls to shrink rental sector. Tuition fee cut for richer graduates. Freeze for falling energy prices. Anti-market superficial folly
@JohnRentoul: Windfall gains for sellers of entry-level houses. Inane, stupid and, no doubt, very popular. http://t.co/PMj3WB0zad
My additional point is that Labour apparently feel the need to be developing their policy post-manifesto launch. That is not an act of confident leadership.
The Lynton Crosby contract - was there a rebate back built into it ?
0 -
True enough. May the too-often-lazy party machines in all parts of the nation be shaken, from the Tory Shires to the Labour inner cities and NEJonathan said:
Hopefully only a matter of time. If All Scottish seats are competitive, that has to be a good thing for their democracy.SeanT said:
For Cameron and Osborne to do as badly as that, electorally, they'd have to lose the Home Counties. They have not.
Can't wait for the day where we have some truly competitive elections in Tory shires. Lazy sheep in blue rosettes are no good to anyone. They also need to be shaken.0 -
The DUP is the party Ukip wishes it could be. They aren't in the Tories' pocket like the UUP. Some people in Eastern UK have not noticed the political changes in that part of the union since 2005.Pulpstar said:
Dave doesn't have many friends.Dair said:Headlines say DUP ruling out pact with Tories over EVEL officially.
Who was it thought I was wrong on this?
Just Nick to be frank !0 -
Fox- look down the thread for Sunil's Elbow where he provides aggregate polls for YouGov and then without.foxinsoxuk said:
No movement in Yougov. Frozen stiff like a Siberian Mammoth caught in a January freeze.MP_SE said:
10 days to go and there hasn't been a great deal of movement for weeks now. This will certainly be a fascinating election.Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Is anyone doing a poll of polls minus yougov? It may well have some vslidity.
Labour plus 0.5% with YouGov. Tories plus 0.5 without YouGov- or something similar
-1 -
The last time I rented was in 1995 in a desirable part of the West End (Woodlands). The two bed flat cost £450pcm.Pulpstar said:@Dair Reckon I'll retire to Scotland tbh xD Sounds like some good deals on property.
With this topic coming up today, I checked what sort of price I would expect to pay today. Nothing in the same street but in the adjacent street (with a much better aspect) the current rent for a two bedder was £750pcm.0 -
I'm not clear on the Lib Dem position on EVEL.Pulpstar said:
Dave doesn't have many friends.Dair said:Headlines say DUP ruling out pact with Tories over EVEL officially.
Who was it thought I was wrong on this?
Just Nick to be frank !
As far as I can tell the only party other than the Tories that support EVEL is the SNP.0 -
Apart from the icy wind off the North Sea that cuts right through you, and seafogs on the coast.tyson said:
Norfolk has the best weather in the UK. London is humid and the air quality is poor.SeanT said:London also has the best weather in the UK (bar, perhaps, a few sunny spots in Sussex or Hampshire).
It really is unfair, but there it is.
The Isle of Wight takes some beating. Gentle winters and often I have been visiting my uncle there and sat in glorious sunshine watching it rain on the mainland.0 -
Myleeene cant get a garage for £2million you have one at less than 200.000 bargainsurbiton said:
The world does not live in Scotland , you know. A garage is worth more than £125.000 in London.Dair said:
And utterly pointless.murali_s said:Scrapping Stamp Duty for first time buyers - both populist and helpful - vote winner!
How many First Time Buyers are purchasing property outside of the tax free range?0 -
Also there are three dimensions, so if Britain really had a shortage of land, which it doesn't, they could build a little bit more up/down in the existing cities.surbiton said:
Why not ? Only 2.2% of Britain has been built on. There is more than enough space. Get rid of the Nimby's.david_kendrick1 said:
True. But we need a policy in place that does not require us to build 2 new cities the size of Cambridge every year for.... ever.glw said:
Even if we left the EU unless UKIP are planning on kicking out a lot of recent migrants our population will still be going up sharply. We are going to need a load of new homes whatever we do.david_kendrick1 said:There is one mainstream party with a cogent housing policy. UKIP. Quit the EU, and scale back unskilled immigration substantially. There are too many people, rather than too few houses.
0 -
Gosh, who'd have thought the Greens might be so precious? I've never ever felt the need to take Ben Bradshaw's side in anything before!
Exeter Green Party @exetergreens
We're appalled to learn @BenPBradshaw is knocking on doors of those displaying #Greens posters urging them to vote Labour. #scaretactic0 -
@pulpstar, @oldpolitics
Thank you for your responses. My question originated from a need to identify archives of spread betting data: not just graphs, but actual numbers. Oddschecker (see posts passim) capture odds but not for Sporting Index. It does from Betfair Exchange and SpreadEx, but from what your saying it appears that a) Betfair Exchange is not spread betting, and b) we cannot confirm that the SpreadEx data did not come from the non-spread part of SpreadEx
What this means is that we have *no* archive, reliable or otherwise, of spread betting data. Aaargh!0 -
I agree. Brown did not save it, the result wasn't far from most opinion polling during the campaign.SeanT said:
It wasn't Brown who saved the Union, it was the political-economic facts: currency, oil price, EU membership, Central Bank. And so on.EPG said:
The terrifying prospect, for those who believe Brown saved the union, is that next time, there won't be any Scottish unionist of that stature. There will be a handful or two of backbenchers in whatever seats can be taken from the Nationalists, and an English Scotland Secretary, and that's it.SeanT said:
Scotland. Labour are on the verge of being wiped out in Scotland: their ancestral heartland, the birthplace of Keir Hardie. This will haunt them for the rest of time, and make overall Labour majorities difficult or impossible (as we see).IOS said:Cameron - the most over rated politician of the post war era. Maybe Osborne beats him.
For Cameron and Osborne to do as badly as that, electorally, they'd have to lose the Home Counties. They have not.
Cameron and Osborne are just mediocre. For truly terrible politicians, who damaged their party as much as they damaged the country, look to Blair and Brown.
The bleak but undeniable facts will win any foreseeable vote, too (though I don't expect one in the next five-ten years, as Scots will still be distractedly digesting their new Devomax powers).
Emotionally I am sure most Scots would like Home Rule. But it's like Augustine's aspiration to chastity.
The topic of EU membership could well precipitate the next referendum. Next time, working in the opposite direction.0 -
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/26/conservative-party-is-losing-our-support-over-scotland-warns-dup
Nigel Dodds speaking some real sense here. The Conservative campaign over Scotland has gone beyond the pale, with the pickpocket pictures of Salmond and whatnot.0 -
The man's a thug - I've heard he's knocking on everyone's doors urging them to vote Labour, is nobody safe?!Tissue_Price said:Gosh, who'd have thought the Greens might be so precious? I've never ever felt the need to take Ben Bradshaw's side in anything before!
Exeter Green Party @exetergreens
We're appalled to learn @BenPBradshaw is knocking on doors of those displaying #Greens posters urging them to vote Labour. #scaretactic0 -
I worked in the Channel Islands for a few years. Very similar I guess.foxinsoxuk said:
Apart from the icy wind off the North Sea that cuts right through you, and seafogs on the coast.tyson said:
Norfolk has the best weather in the UK. London is humid and the air quality is poor.SeanT said:London also has the best weather in the UK (bar, perhaps, a few sunny spots in Sussex or Hampshire).
It really is unfair, but there it is.
The Isle of Wight takes some beating. Gentle winters and often I have been visiting my uncle there and sat in glorious sunshine watching it rain on the mainland.
0 -
A vast percentage of Britain is unbuildable on.surbiton said:
Why not ? Only 2.2% of Britain has been built on. There is more than enough space. Get rid of the Nimby's.david_kendrick1 said:
True. But we need a policy in place that does not require us to build 2 new cities the size of Cambridge every year for.... ever.glw said:
Even if we left the EU unless UKIP are planning on kicking out a lot of recent migrants our population will still be going up sharply. We are going to need a load of new homes whatever we do.david_kendrick1 said:There is one mainstream party with a cogent housing policy. UKIP. Quit the EU, and scale back unskilled immigration substantially. There are too many people, rather than too few houses.
No doubt every party is under pressure to make promises about housing (and lots of things) at elections, but far too much is out of their control to make them believable.
But whatever happened to the NHS for labour? They are talking about anything but the NHS and are milking the fatted calf for everything but the NHS.0 -
DH reckons the Tory campaign is best thoughsurbiton said:
Don't think they are thinking up new policies as they go along. The policies were already thought out but deliberately designed to be released with a fortnight to go - one after another- giving the Tories too little time to attack them. Which one to attack ? The Tories will now be spending most of their time just criticising new policies from Labour - very little time to talk about their own - if they have any.Flightpath1 said:
The flaw in this new 'invent a policy' policy by Labour is that the give-aways are not confined to Scotland only with knobs on.FrancisUrquhart said:
It seems it is more like they are sat their with the test paper still mostly empty and now they are cribbing from other classmates and answers from an exam paper from 50 years ago.antifrank said:John Rentoul sums up most of my view in two tweets:
@JohnRentoul: Rent controls to shrink rental sector. Tuition fee cut for richer graduates. Freeze for falling energy prices. Anti-market superficial folly
@JohnRentoul: Windfall gains for sellers of entry-level houses. Inane, stupid and, no doubt, very popular. http://t.co/PMj3WB0zad
My additional point is that Labour apparently feel the need to be developing their policy post-manifesto launch. That is not an act of confident leadership.
The Lynton Crosby contract - was there a rebate back built into it ?0 -
He has listed a surprising number of days to Labour though (that surprising number being above 0)bigjohnowls said:
DH reckons the Tory campaign is best thoughsurbiton said:
Don't think they are thinking up new policies as they go along. The policies were already thought out but deliberately designed to be released with a fortnight to go - one after another- giving the Tories too little time to attack them. Which one to attack ? The Tories will now be spending most of their time just criticising new policies from Labour - very little time to talk about their own - if they have any.Flightpath1 said:
The flaw in this new 'invent a policy' policy by Labour is that the give-aways are not confined to Scotland only with knobs on.FrancisUrquhart said:
It seems it is more like they are sat their with the test paper still mostly empty and now they are cribbing from other classmates and answers from an exam paper from 50 years ago.antifrank said:John Rentoul sums up most of my view in two tweets:
@JohnRentoul: Rent controls to shrink rental sector. Tuition fee cut for richer graduates. Freeze for falling energy prices. Anti-market superficial folly
@JohnRentoul: Windfall gains for sellers of entry-level houses. Inane, stupid and, no doubt, very popular. http://t.co/PMj3WB0zad
My additional point is that Labour apparently feel the need to be developing their policy post-manifesto launch. That is not an act of confident leadership.
The Lynton Crosby contract - was there a rebate back built into it ?
0 -
DH is god!bigjohnowls said:
DH reckons the Tory campaign is best thoughsurbiton said:
Don't think they are thinking up new policies as they go along. The policies were already thought out but deliberately designed to be released with a fortnight to go - one after another- giving the Tories too little time to attack them. Which one to attack ? The Tories will now be spending most of their time just criticising new policies from Labour - very little time to talk about their own - if they have any.Flightpath1 said:
The flaw in this new 'invent a policy' policy by Labour is that the give-aways are not confined to Scotland only with knobs on.FrancisUrquhart said:
It seems it is more like they are sat their with the test paper still mostly empty and now they are cribbing from other classmates and answers from an exam paper from 50 years ago.antifrank said:John Rentoul sums up most of my view in two tweets:
@JohnRentoul: Rent controls to shrink rental sector. Tuition fee cut for richer graduates. Freeze for falling energy prices. Anti-market superficial folly
@JohnRentoul: Windfall gains for sellers of entry-level houses. Inane, stupid and, no doubt, very popular. http://t.co/PMj3WB0zad
My additional point is that Labour apparently feel the need to be developing their policy post-manifesto launch. That is not an act of confident leadership.
The Lynton Crosby contract - was there a rebate back built into it ?0 -
It'll be very interesting the see the fallout if the Tories don't get the traction they need to win over 290 seats.bigjohnowls said:
DH reckons the Tory campaign is best thoughsurbiton said:
Don't think they are thinking up new policies as they go along. The policies were already thought out but deliberately designed to be released with a fortnight to go - one after another- giving the Tories too little time to attack them. Which one to attack ? The Tories will now be spending most of their time just criticising new policies from Labour - very little time to talk about their own - if they have any.Flightpath1 said:
The flaw in this new 'invent a policy' policy by Labour is that the give-aways are not confined to Scotland only with knobs on.FrancisUrquhart said:
It seems it is more like they are sat their with the test paper still mostly empty and now they are cribbing from other classmates and answers from an exam paper from 50 years ago.antifrank said:John Rentoul sums up most of my view in two tweets:
@JohnRentoul: Rent controls to shrink rental sector. Tuition fee cut for richer graduates. Freeze for falling energy prices. Anti-market superficial folly
@JohnRentoul: Windfall gains for sellers of entry-level houses. Inane, stupid and, no doubt, very popular. http://t.co/PMj3WB0zad
My additional point is that Labour apparently feel the need to be developing their policy post-manifesto launch. That is not an act of confident leadership.
The Lynton Crosby contract - was there a rebate back built into it ?
0 -
i think the chances of the tories regaining momentum have slipped away. it seems the british public are easily duped with magic money tree promises and are happy to risk all to get it. its increasingly looking like Ed can start measuring the curtains for number 100
-
I am blocked from viewing anymore Telegraph articles.kle4 said:
He has listed a surprising number of days to Labour though (that surprising number being above 0)bigjohnowls said:
DH reckons the Tory campaign is best thoughsurbiton said:
Don't think they are thinking up new policies as they go along. The policies were already thought out but deliberately designed to be released with a fortnight to go - one after another- giving the Tories too little time to attack them. Which one to attack ? The Tories will now be spending most of their time just criticising new policies from Labour - very little time to talk about their own - if they have any.Flightpath1 said:
The flaw in this new 'invent a policy' policy by Labour is that the give-aways are not confined to Scotland only with knobs on.FrancisUrquhart said:
It seems it is more like they are sat their with the test paper still mostly empty and now they are cribbing from other classmates and answers from an exam paper from 50 years ago.antifrank said:John Rentoul sums up most of my view in two tweets:
@JohnRentoul: Rent controls to shrink rental sector. Tuition fee cut for richer graduates. Freeze for falling energy prices. Anti-market superficial folly
@JohnRentoul: Windfall gains for sellers of entry-level houses. Inane, stupid and, no doubt, very popular. http://t.co/PMj3WB0zad
My additional point is that Labour apparently feel the need to be developing their policy post-manifesto launch. That is not an act of confident leadership.
The Lynton Crosby contract - was there a rebate back built into it ?
What is the current score.
Tories ahead by 2 a couple of days ago.
0 -
9 Conbigjohnowls said:
I am blocked from viewing anymore Telegraph articles.kle4 said:
He has listed a surprising number of days to Labour though (that surprising number being above 0)bigjohnowls said:
DH reckons the Tory campaign is best thoughsurbiton said:
Don't think they are thinking up new policies as they go along. The policies were already thought out but deliberately designed to be released with a fortnight to go - one after another- giving the Tories too little time to attack them. Which one to attack ? The Tories will now be spending most of their time just criticising new policies from Labour - very little time to talk about their own - if they have any.Flightpath1 said:
The flaw in this new 'invent a policy' policy by Labour is that the give-aways are not confined to Scotland only with knobs on.FrancisUrquhart said:
It seems it is more like they are sat their with the test paper still mostly empty and now they are cribbing from other classmates and answers from an exam paper from 50 years ago.antifrank said:John Rentoul sums up most of my view in two tweets:
@JohnRentoul: Rent controls to shrink rental sector. Tuition fee cut for richer graduates. Freeze for falling energy prices. Anti-market superficial folly
@JohnRentoul: Windfall gains for sellers of entry-level houses. Inane, stupid and, no doubt, very popular. http://t.co/PMj3WB0zad
My additional point is that Labour apparently feel the need to be developing their policy post-manifesto launch. That is not an act of confident leadership.
The Lynton Crosby contract - was there a rebate back built into it ?
What is the current score.
Tories ahead by 2 a couple of days ago.
6 Lab
4 SNP
3 LD
1 UKIP
0 -
OMG DH #MILIFANDOM
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 15m 15 minutes ago
Daily Express: "Boris Gives Ed Bashing On TV". Must have been after the band finished, because I thought Ed took Boris.0 -
Probably. Although I've often wondered why changing the curtains is the first thing people think about doing when moving in. Poor taste in curtains I can usually live with, but getting my favoured settee and other furnishings in much more important.kjohnw said:i think the chances of the tories regaining momentum have slipped away. it seems the british public are easily duped with magic money tree promises and are happy to risk all to get it. its increasingly looking like Ed can start measuring the curtains for number 10
Dan is more of a Cameron man, probably not a fan of Boris. I kid.bigjohnowls said:OMG DH #MILIFANDOM
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 15m 15 minutes ago
Daily Express: "Boris Gives Ed Bashing On TV". Must have been after the band finished, because I thought Ed took Boris.
0 -
Welcome to the club, we have been waiting for you for some time. Better late than never.kjohnw said:i think the chances of the tories regaining momentum have slipped away. it seems the british public are easily duped with magic money tree promises and are happy to risk all to get it. its increasingly looking like Ed can start measuring the curtains for number 10
0 -
In his eyes, SNP are Sinn Fein-lite...Pulpstar said:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/26/conservative-party-is-losing-our-support-over-scotland-warns-dup
Nigel Dodds speaking some real sense here. The Conservative campaign over Scotland has gone beyond the pale, with the pickpocket pictures of Salmond and whatnot.0 -
Either delete your cookies or open the page using an Incognito window.bigjohnowls said:
I am blocked from viewing anymore Telegraph articles.0 -
At least 2 kitchens (one of which was well concealed) would surely be the prioritykle4 said:
Probably. Although I've often wondered why changing the curtains is the first thing people think about doing when moving in. Poor taste in curtains I can usually live with, but getting my favoured settee and other furnishings in much more important.kjohnw said:i think the chances of the tories regaining momentum have slipped away. it seems the british public are easily duped with magic money tree promises and are happy to risk all to get it. its increasingly looking like Ed can start measuring the curtains for number 10
0 -
If he thinks he can come around here all prodigal son like he can go and sling his hook .bigjohnowls said:OMG DH #MILIFANDOM
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 15m 15 minutes ago
Daily Express: "Boris Gives Ed Bashing On TV". Must have been after the band finished, because I thought Ed took Boris.0 -
MP_SE said:
10 days to go and there hasn't been a great deal of movement for weeks now. This will certainly be a fascinating election.Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/592419947663491072foxinsoxuk said:
No movement in Yougov. Frozen stiff like a Siberian Mammoth caught in a January freeze.MP_SE said:
10 days to go and there hasn't been a great deal of movement for weeks now. This will certainly be a fascinating election.Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%
Is anyone doing a poll of polls minus yougov? It may well have some vslidity.0
