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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Deputy PM after the election betting

SystemSystem Posts: 11,705
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Deputy PM after the election betting

Given the recent pronouncements of Nick Clegg ruling out the Lib Dems joining a Lab/SNP coalition and Vince Cable saying he could stomach another coalition with the Tories (though he would like George Osborne’s job) it might not be wise to back them, particularly based on projections/forecasts the numbers for a Con/Lib Dem coalition don’t look possible.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Back Harpie.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    edited April 2015
    Harman seems obvious unless I'm missing something. I think it's unlikely Ed would want to move her to a different ministerial position.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    FPT

    I hope the 'kle4 test' becomes a thing. It would have been better if I had a better user name though. My tagline used to be 'DedicatedFenceSitter', and the FenceSitter test would actually work. Oh well, what could have been.

    On topic, agreed, SNP figures seems unlikely, so its between LDs, Lab or no one. I think Ed will have a deputy even if it is a Lab figure and not a coalition arrangement one. Why change his current one I guess?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,900
    HICIDPM.

  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Funny segment on Sunday Politics.

    The summation of the postion in Scotland showed a brief soundbite from Nicola, Jackson Carlaw, Jim Murphy and Jo Swinson.

    During Jim Murphy's piece, in the background you could clearly hear : -
    "bawheid"
    "yer a bawheid Murphy"
    "nothing but a bawheid"
    "bawheid"

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,402
    Agree. Has anyone worked out why we have one yet?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    edited April 2015
    DavidL said:

    Agree. Has anyone worked out why we have one yet?

    At least in a coalition in makes some kind of sense - the LDs did not on the basis on their seat numbers deserve a Great Office of State, and Clegg needed to maximise the cabinet positions he could assign to other party members, so making him DPM frees up a space he might have taken at a department, and recognises that, irrespective of departmental position, as the junior party leader he is an integral part of the government.Edit - people will say there is no power in the post, and that's true, but in this instance the point is being the junior party leader is important as even if in no position everything will need to go through you too, and the DPM position is a helpful non-important role to give an official position to that.

    For a non-coalition government, only useful as a formal recognition of a chief supporter I guess.

  • Options
    DanielDaniel Posts: 160
    IMO, Ed won't appoint a Deputy.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited April 2015
    OGH for deputy PM! Oh, he's not standing? Thats a shame, but I suppose he doesn't want to be inside the bubble. ;)
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,068
    DavidL said:

    Agree. Has anyone worked out why we have one yet?

    Taking the job was Clegg’s first mistake.

    Which US VP said the job was like a bucket of cold p**s? Same applies.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    edited April 2015
    OldKingCole said:

    DavidL said:

    Agree. Has anyone worked out why we have one yet?

    Taking the job was Clegg’s first mistake.

    Which US VP said the job was like a bucket of cold p**s? Same applies.
    John Nance Garner, "not worth a bucket of warm piss"

    I managed to put that quote into a PB thread header once.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    Dave getting passionate and campaigning in Yeovil
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    DavidL said:

    Agree. Has anyone worked out why we have one yet?

    Something to keep unsackable, incompetents happy? Step forward Hattie.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,402
    OldKingCole said:

    DavidL said:

    Agree. Has anyone worked out why we have one yet?

    Taking the job was Clegg’s first mistake.

    Which US VP said the job was like a bucket of cold p**s? Same applies.
    Yes he should have taken a department. Health probably. Couldn't have the FO because of the EU.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dave getting passionate and campaigning in Yeovil

    Tory tails must be up in the SW - right for the heart of the Lib Dem position...
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    DavidL said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DavidL said:

    Agree. Has anyone worked out why we have one yet?

    Taking the job was Clegg’s first mistake.

    Which US VP said the job was like a bucket of cold p**s? Same applies.
    Yes he should have taken a department. Health probably. Couldn't have the FO because of the EU.
    Surely it was in Clegg's interest to have as many of his LD colleagues in senior positions as possible? He gets them to fill all of the departments they managed to negotiate for, locking them in to the coalition that much more tightly. He already has influence through his leadership of the party, so the title is just a formality.
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    FPT

    It's supposed to be a myth that politicians ever want to lose an election, but if I were Miliband I think I'd be quite happy if Cameron stays in Number 10 for the time being. It'd give people on the Left a chance to reflect and realise that if they want power they need to return to the Labour fold (at least until there's electoral reform). I think there'll be another general election within 12 months, and the 3rd/4th parties will get squeezed. And it'd give him a chance to resign with some dignity in order for the party to find a more electable leader.

    OTOH, if Ed does sneak into Number 10 on May 7th, it will be a remarkable achievement indeed if he manages to govern effectively while standing up to Salmond and co. If he were to manage it, he'd stroll back into power at the following election, but is he man enough?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dave getting passionate and campaigning in Yeovil

    Tory tails must be up in the SW - right for the heart of the Lib Dem position...
    With the LDs not likely in any case to have the seat numbers to make a second coalition viable, it would seem in the interest of the Tories to gain as many as they can from the LDs to go for most seats, even if it is most seats and destined for opposition.
    Dadge said:

    It's supposed to be a myth that politicians ever want to lose an election

    I don't think its a myth, so much as something people usually comfort themselves with when their side looks like they are going to lose anyway (though I grant this is not universally the case).
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,904
    edited April 2015
    FPT. GeoffM

    "Only if there's an equivalent and suitable title for you tampon advertisers."

    The Most Noble Order of the Sanitary Towel?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    How would the fav, no DPM, come about?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    FPT:
    Flightpath1 said:

    kle4 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sturgeon: Miliband prefers Cameron as PM, rather than work with the SNP...

    So some are saying the SNP prefer Cameron as PM as it helps with another IndyRef.
    Sturgeon says Miliband would prefer Cameron as PM rather than work with the SNP.
    Farage is said to prefer Cameron over Miliband as PM.
    A Clegg run LDs would probably prefer Cameron as PM.

    A lot of people seem to prefer Cameron as PM, it would be a shame for them to be all so disappointed.
    'It's a funny ol' elecrorial world init, guvner?' Ne'er mind, dem polls 've gorrit all worked out aint they?'
    ???
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,020
    FPT

    Geoff. I have made a decision for you. Based on the info you gave I have looked up the two candidates you were considering. The UKIP candidate is a Cardiff Uni alumni (my alma mater) so I think you have to vote for him even though he doesn't look old enough to shave :-)
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    How would the fav, no DPM, come about?

    It is a fairly recent invention I think invented by Mrs T for her Willie. Was HH Deputy PM under Brown or was there no DPM?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    How would the fav, no DPM, come about?

    Minority Lab.

    Any two-party coalition I suspect the leader of the second party will follow Clegg's precedence and take the title. Minority Lab and there's nobody who 'needs' to take it.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,068
    edited April 2015
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DavidL said:

    Agree. Has anyone worked out why we have one yet?

    Taking the job was Clegg’s first mistake.

    Which US VP said the job was like a bucket of cold p**s? Same applies.
    Yes he should have taken a department. Health probably. Couldn't have the FO because of the EU.
    Surely it was in Clegg's interest to have as many of his LD colleagues in senior positions as possible? He gets them to fill all of the departments they managed to negotiate for, locking them in to the coalition that much more tightly. He already has influence through his leadership of the party, so the title is just a formality.
    Part of Clegg, and Cameron’s, problem was that the Tories wouldn’t have stood for such a pro-European as FS, and anyway it had been promised to Hague. The Chancellorship had been promised to Osborne, and not giving him something good would have caused major ructions. That leaves the Home Office as one of the Great Offices, and although I understand Heath offered it to Jeremy Thorpe (no, really) in Feb 1974 it’s generally considered a poisoned chalice.
    Although May’s managed to stay the course.
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited April 2015
    OldKingCole said:

    DavidL said:

    Agree. Has anyone worked out why we have one yet?

    Taking the job was Clegg’s first mistake.

    Which US VP said the job was like a bucket of cold p**s? Same applies.
    A pitcher of warm spit. LBJ's typically colourful opinion.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    foxinsoxuk said:

    isam said:

    How would the fav, no DPM, come about?

    It is a fairly recent invention I think invented by Mrs T for her Willie. Was HH Deputy PM under Brown or was there no DPM?
    Bah, the first Deputy PM was Clement Attlee in 1942.

    Clegg is the ninth person to hold the office, though it has been vacant for long periods at a time.

    But if the current coalition ends, and there's a minority Govt, either Con or Lab, and they don't appoint a Deputy PM.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    It makes sense for coalition partner leader to be DPM rather than take an office for himself. Like the Prime Minister himself that then allows the DPM to keep his finger in every pie and manage his party accordingly rather than obsessing over just one issue.

    If Clegg had taken eg Chief Secretary of the Treasury for himself then would he be able to also keep on top of the Lib-Dem priorities for Education, Health and all other departments not ran by LDs themselves?
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DavidL said:

    Agree. Has anyone worked out why we have one yet?

    Taking the job was Clegg’s first mistake.

    Which US VP said the job was like a bucket of cold p**s? Same applies.
    John Nance Garner, "not worth a bucket of warm piss"

    I managed to put that quote into a PB thread header once.
    But since we dont live in a presidential system, and the Prime Minister is just first amongst equals, that doesnt hold true. Clegg has been at the very heart of this government.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    isam said:

    How would the fav, no DPM, come about?

    It is a fairly recent invention I think invented by Mrs T for her Willie. Was HH Deputy PM under Brown or was there no DPM?
    Bah, the first Deputy PM was Clement Attlee in 1942.

    Clegg is the ninth person to hold the office, though it has been vacant for long periods at a time.

    But if the current coalition ends, and there's a minority Govt, either Con or Lab, and they don't appoint a Deputy PM.
    Is Attlee the only DPM to become PM? No one else springs to mind.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    notme said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DavidL said:

    Agree. Has anyone worked out why we have one yet?

    Taking the job was Clegg’s first mistake.

    Which US VP said the job was like a bucket of cold p**s? Same applies.
    John Nance Garner, "not worth a bucket of warm piss"

    I managed to put that quote into a PB thread header once.
    But since we dont live in a presidential system, and the Prime Minister is just first amongst equals, that doesnt hold true. Clegg has been at the very heart of this government.
    I agree, I said winning the Euros was the equivalent

    I’m sure oppositions view winning the European elections in the same way John Nance Garner viewed the American Vice-Presidency, “it is not worth a bucket of warm piss”

    http://bit.ly/1z8I633
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    foxinsoxuk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    isam said:

    How would the fav, no DPM, come about?

    It is a fairly recent invention I think invented by Mrs T for her Willie. Was HH Deputy PM under Brown or was there no DPM?
    Bah, the first Deputy PM was Clement Attlee in 1942.

    Clegg is the ninth person to hold the office, though it has been vacant for long periods at a time.

    But if the current coalition ends, and there's a minority Govt, either Con or Lab, and they don't appoint a Deputy PM.
    Is Attlee the only DPM to become PM? No one else springs to mind.
    Anthony Eden is the only other.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,904
    Surely the most sure fire bet on the election is that Clegg wont survive as Lib Dem leader. The only possible circumstance would be if the Tories get near a majority and they need the twenty odd seats the Libs can provide but even then I'm sure the party would look for a new leader.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    isam said:

    How would the fav, no DPM, come about?

    It is a fairly recent invention I think invented by Mrs T for her Willie. Was HH Deputy PM under Brown or was there no DPM?
    Bah, the first Deputy PM was Clement Attlee in 1942.

    Clegg is the ninth person to hold the office, though it has been vacant for long periods at a time.

    But if the current coalition ends, and there's a minority Govt, either Con or Lab, and they don't appoint a Deputy PM.
    Is Attlee the only DPM to become PM? No one else springs to mind.
    Anthony Eden is the only other.
    DPM to Churchill second time around?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Roger, depends what time scale you're talking. If we have a Election 2: Elect Harder, Clegg would still be leader. If he keeps his seat.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    foxinsoxuk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    isam said:

    How would the fav, no DPM, come about?

    It is a fairly recent invention I think invented by Mrs T for her Willie. Was HH Deputy PM under Brown or was there no DPM?
    Bah, the first Deputy PM was Clement Attlee in 1942.

    Clegg is the ninth person to hold the office, though it has been vacant for long periods at a time.

    But if the current coalition ends, and there's a minority Govt, either Con or Lab, and they don't appoint a Deputy PM.
    Is Attlee the only DPM to become PM? No one else springs to mind.
    Anthony Eden is the only other.
    DPM to Churchill second time around?
    Yup.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Roger said:

    Surely the most sure fire bet on the election is that Clegg wont survive as Lib Dem leader. The only possible circumstance would be if the Tories get near a majority and they need the twenty odd seats the Libs can provide but even then I'm sure the party would look for a new leader.

    I think that if the LDs pull off an unfeasable 40+ seats then he could survive. Otherwise he is toast.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Roger, depends what time scale you're talking. If we have a Election 2: Elect Harder, Clegg would still be leader. If he keeps his seat.

    'Elect Harder' would actually be a great name for a second election this year - it would be the parties saying they'd heard what we'd said, and we were idiots who needed to try harder and do it again.

    I do think it unlikely Clegg will remain in post as LD leader for more than a week, post election. If they have the numbers to make a Tory coalition viable and he keeps his seat, maybe he stays in place for the look of it, before it is decided a deal won't be made. But more likely he resigns as soon as it is clear the LDs on their own cannot make any coalition viable.
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    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    Once again 'Daily Politics' spent the last 10 minutes talking about the Conservatives/leadership again. Not a single comment about whether EdM will still be leader after the election.
    Too much talk of conservative mps ringing up journalists last week 'whinging' about the campaign.
    LISTEN ALL THOSE CONSERVATIVE MPS WHO READ THIS BLOG - SHUT UP. AS YOU HAVE SEEN TODAY, BORIS IS NOT THE STAR STRIKER, SO KEEP YOUR DISCIPLINE FOR GOODNESS SAKE.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    notme said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DavidL said:

    Agree. Has anyone worked out why we have one yet?

    Taking the job was Clegg’s first mistake.

    Which US VP said the job was like a bucket of cold p**s? Same applies.
    John Nance Garner, "not worth a bucket of warm piss"

    I managed to put that quote into a PB thread header once.
    But since we dont live in a presidential system, and the Prime Minister is just first amongst equals, that doesnt hold true. Clegg has been at the very heart of this government.
    Exactly.

    Clegg's wielded tremendous power and authority this Parliament. Not for having responsibility for any single department by itself, but by commanding the Lib Dems and thus having essentially veto power over every department.

    This made the role of DPM perfect for his position. Clegg has been the quintessential jack of all trades, master of none.
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    dyingswandyingswan Posts: 189
    Nichola Sturgeon. She is going to be running the show anyway .Or Stephanie Flanders.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,020
    OT. Its snowing bloody hard around Aberdeen at the moment. Not sure I would like to be pounding the pavements in this weather.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Swan.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I :heart: this YouGov poll, I got it today...

    What do you think will be the most likely cause of the apocalypse?
    Climate change
    Worldwide revolution
    Alien invasion
    Judgement day
    Nuclear war
    Zombies
    Something else
    Don’t think there will be an apocalypse
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Miss Plato, no vampire option? Disappointing.

    Mr. Tyndall, been odd in Yorkshire, very sunny, and warm when it's still, but the intermittent wind a few hours ago was icy.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Plato said:

    I :heart: this YouGov poll, I got it today...


    What do you think will be the most likely cause of the apocalypse?
    Climate change
    Worldwide revolution
    Alien invasion
    Judgement day
    Nuclear war
    Zombies
    Something else
    Don’t think there will be an apocalypse
    I think it will be when the sun goes supernova, but it will be about 5 billion years from now. I suppose that falls under "don't think there will be an apocalypse".
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    Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    LadyBucket said:

    Once again 'Daily Politics' spent the last 10 minutes talking about the Conservatives/leadership again. Not a single comment about whether EdM will still be leader after the election.
    Too much talk of conservative mps ringing up journalists last week 'whinging' about the campaign.
    LISTEN ALL THOSE CONSERVATIVE MPS WHO READ THIS BLOG - SHUT UP. AS YOU HAVE SEEN TODAY, BORIS IS NOT THE STAR STRIKER, SO KEEP YOUR DISCIPLINE FOR GOODNESS SAKE.

    Wibble.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does anyone know how many more polls we're likely to get before election day?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone know how many more polls we're likely to get before election day?

    Yes
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone know how many more polls we're likely to get before election day?

    Yes
    Well, don't keep it to yourself; spread the news.
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    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    "'Elect Harder' would actually be a great name for a second election this year - it would be the parties saying they'd heard what we'd said, and we were idiots who needed to try harder and do it again."

    Other possibilities

    Election 2 - electric bugaloo
    Election 3D (we all get glasses for this one)
    2 Elect 2 Furious
    I still know who you elected last summer
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    rfw753 ‏@rfw753 5h5 hours ago Brighton, England
    I've just voted UKIP and it felt great. Change is coming and a ray of hope for us working, law abiding...
    http://dailym.ai/1z7Pdsy
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    edited April 2015
    MikeK said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone know how many more polls we're likely to get before election day?

    Yes
    Well, don't keep it to yourself; spread the news.
    I'm expecting at least 32 GB wide polls between now and election day

    11 YouGovs, 2 ICMs, 2 Ipsos Moris, 3 Ashcrofts, 2 ComRes phone polls, 1 ComRes online poll, 1 Opinium, 4 Populus, 1 TNS, 2 Panelbases, 3 Survations and a Partridge in a pear tree.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: Nicola Sturgeon: "I suspect Ed Miliband will change his tune once the votes are cast."
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeK said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone know how many more polls we're likely to get before election day?

    Yes
    Well, don't keep it to yourself; spread the news.
    I'm expecting at least 32 GB wide polls between now and election day

    11 YouGovs, 2 ICMs, 2 Ipsos Moris, 3 Ashcrofts, 2 ComRes phone polls, 1 ComRes online poll, 1 Opinium, 4 Populus, 1 TNS, 2 Panelbases, 3 Survations and a Partridge in a pear tree.
    ..... and a Partridge in a pear tree being the most reliable one. ;)
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited April 2015
    MikeK said:

    rfw753 ‏@rfw753 5h5 hours ago Brighton, England
    I've just voted UKIP and it felt great. Change is coming and a ray of hope for us working, law abiding...
    http://dailym.ai/1z7Pdsy

    I have to say your enthusiasm and support for your party is admirable and I'm sure it is infectious to those around you.

    It would be nice if more people cared about their respective party the way you do. I'm a complete charlatan who follows politics (almost) purely for the bloodsport.

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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    The mere fact that John Prescott held the office induces one to nausea. A man more unfitted to hold the office would be nigh on impossible to find.
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    edited April 2015
    MikeK said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeK said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone know how many more polls we're likely to get before election day?

    Yes
    Well, don't keep it to yourself; spread the news.
    I'm expecting at least 32 GB wide polls between now and election day

    11 YouGovs, 2 ICMs, 2 Ipsos Moris, 3 Ashcrofts, 2 ComRes phone polls, 1 ComRes online poll, 1 Opinium, 4 Populus, 1 TNS, 2 Panelbases, 3 Survations and a Partridge in a pear tree.
    ..... and a Partridge in a pear tree being the most reliable one. ;)
    Ah, but is it an on-line partridge or one that telephones you?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SquareRoot said:

    The mere fact that John Prescott held the office induces one to nausea. A man more unfitted to hold the office would be nigh on impossible to find.

    How about Tony Blair as a candidate for worse than John P? If it were the other way around then I expect that we would have stayed out of Iraq war 2.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MikeK said:

    rfw753 ‏@rfw753 5h5 hours ago Brighton, England
    I've just voted UKIP and it felt great. Change is coming and a ray of hope for us working, law abiding...
    http://dailym.ai/1z7Pdsy

    Would you be able to say which constituency?
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,017
    edited April 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeK said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone know how many more polls we're likely to get before election day?

    Yes
    Well, don't keep it to yourself; spread the news.
    I'm expecting at least 32 GB wide polls between now and election day

    11 YouGovs, 2 ICMs, 2 Ipsos Moris, 3 Ashcrofts, 2 ComRes phone polls, 1 ComRes online poll, 1 Opinium, 4 Populus, 1 TNS, 2 Panelbases, 3 Survations and a Partridge in a pear tree.
    Is my Lord Ashcroft planning one of his megapolls, do you know? And is everyone likely to do an eve-of-poll one?

  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeK said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone know how many more polls we're likely to get before election day?

    Yes
    Well, don't keep it to yourself; spread the news.
    I'm expecting at least 32 GB wide polls between now and election day

    11 YouGovs, 2 ICMs, 2 Ipsos Moris, 3 Ashcrofts, 2 ComRes phone polls, 1 ComRes online poll, 1 Opinium, 4 Populus, 1 TNS, 2 Panelbases, 3 Survations and a Partridge in a pear tree.
    So for a few of those the next poll will also be the last poll they'll do (and therefore fairly or unfairly the only one they'll really be judged on for the next five years after the result is known).

    Any idea when we will start to get the final polls coming in? I assume some will be eve of poll polls on May 6 (or night of May 5) but will others vary?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,977
    Boris really was pony on the Marr show this morning. He's good at Greek and great at Latin, but policy and debate are clearly weak points.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    JohnLilburne said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeK said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone know how many more polls we're likely to get before election day?

    Yes
    Well, don't keep it to yourself; spread the news.
    I'm expecting at least 32 GB wide polls between now and election day

    11 YouGovs, 2 ICMs, 2 Ipsos Moris, 3 Ashcrofts, 2 ComRes phone polls, 1 ComRes online poll, 1 Opinium, 4 Populus, 1 TNS, 2 Panelbases, 3 Survations and a Partridge in a pear tree.
    Is my Lord Ashcroft planning one of his megapolls, do you know? And is everyone likely to do an eve-of-poll one?

    Don't know to the first one. I wouldn't be surprised if he did one.

    I'd expect most will do an eve of election poll, but that is dependent on someone paying them.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @theousherwood: Sturgeon: Ed Miliband won't have the votes to do what he wants. Audio here: https://t.co/sBUCHheOgt

    ...only what I want...
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeK said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone know how many more polls we're likely to get before election day?

    Yes
    Well, don't keep it to yourself; spread the news.
    I'm expecting at least 32 GB wide polls between now and election day

    11 YouGovs, 2 ICMs, 2 Ipsos Moris, 3 Ashcrofts, 2 ComRes phone polls, 1 ComRes online poll, 1 Opinium, 4 Populus, 1 TNS, 2 Panelbases, 3 Survations and a Partridge in a pear tree.
    Is my Lord Ashcroft planning one of his megapolls, do you know? And is everyone likely to do an eve-of-poll one?

    Don't know to the first one. I wouldn't be surprised if he did one.

    I'd expect most will do an eve of election poll, but that is dependent on someone paying them.
    Polls, schmoles: Jack is preparing an eve of poll Super ARSE. It will be like money in the bank...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MikeK said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone know how many more polls we're likely to get before election day?

    Yes
    Well, don't keep it to yourself; spread the news.
    I'm expecting at least 32 GB wide polls between now and election day

    11 YouGovs, 2 ICMs, 2 Ipsos Moris, 3 Ashcrofts, 2 ComRes phone polls, 1 ComRes online poll, 1 Opinium, 4 Populus, 1 TNS, 2 Panelbases, 3 Survations and a Partridge in a pear tree.
    So for a few of those the next poll will also be the last poll they'll do (and therefore fairly or unfairly the only one they'll really be judged on for the next five years after the result is known).

    Any idea when we will start to get the final polls coming in? I assume some will be eve of poll polls on May 6 (or night of May 5) but will others vary?
    I'd expect the final polls to be published Tuesday and Wednesday.

    Though some might follow Ipsos Mori's lead in the indyref and get one out on the morning of the election.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    edited April 2015
    I would also not be surprised if in the last few days of the election Lord Ashcroft published a final batch of constituency polling. Especially in Hallam and South Thanet
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789
    Plato said:

    I :heart: this YouGov poll, I got it today...


    What do you think will be the most likely cause of the apocalypse?
    Climate change
    Worldwide revolution
    Alien invasion
    Judgement day
    Nuclear war
    Zombies
    Something else
    Don’t think there will be an apocalypse
    No "50 SNP MPs"?
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,017
    While looking up Deputy Prime Ministers on Wikipedia, I came across this article https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chief_Mouser_to_the_Cabinet_Office
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    Jiggery_PokeryJiggery_Pokery Posts: 3
    Plato said:

    I :heart: this YouGov poll, I got it today...


    What do you think will be the most likely cause of the apocalypse?
    Climate change
    Worldwide revolution
    Alien invasion
    Judgement day
    Nuclear war
    Zombies
    Something else
    Don’t think there will be an apocalypse
    From the Mail on Sunday headlines I thought it has to be an SNP / Labour agreement post 7th May
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Pokery, welcome to pb.com.

    Lots and lots of new chaps lately.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393
    SouthamObserver said:

    Boris really was pony on the Marr show this morning. He's good at Greek and great at Latin, but policy and debate are clearly weak points.

    Yes - but a least he's funny and something the campaign needs, as it is a complete switch off at present
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @MikeK

    'I've just voted UKIP and it felt great. Change is coming and a ray of hope for us working, law abiding...'

    Are you still forecasting 55 UKIP MP's ?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393
    Has anyone thought just how our wonderful British Isles has come to this fractured political system. Maybe its just too complex to provide a straight forward answer
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    roserees64roserees64 Posts: 251
    Just read a comment on here which said that voting UKIP has made someone ' feel great'. Surely this has to be a joke because voting for a reductionist agenda which is both xenophobic and anti-business is not a great idea in the 21st century. Good job that UKIP will get only 2 seats!
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited April 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dave getting passionate and campaigning in Yeovil

    Just heard a clip on the radio,sounded in great form.

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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393
    roserees64 said:

    Just read a comment on here which said that voting UKIP has made someone ' feel great'. Surely this has to be a joke because voting for a reductionist agenda which is both xenophobic and anti-business is not a great idea in the 21st century. Good job that UKIP will get only 2 seats!

    Everyone is entitled to their opinion and to vote accordingly, and no I am not a UKIP supporter
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. NorthWales, Labour's incompetent devolution.

    The SNP are (in terms of seats) the only real break with the past, or will be, at the election. That's the game-changer.

    There are other factors, but that's the big one.
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    foxinsoxuk said:

    MikeK said:

    rfw753 ‏@rfw753 5h5 hours ago Brighton, England
    I've just voted UKIP and it felt great. Change is coming and a ray of hope for us working, law abiding...
    http://dailym.ai/1z7Pdsy

    Would you be able to say which constituency?
    Hopefully the one he lives in.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Roger said:

    Surely the most sure fire bet on the election is that Clegg wont survive as Lib Dem leader. The only possible circumstance would be if the Tories get near a majority and they need the twenty odd seats the Libs can provide but even then I'm sure the party would look for a new leader.

    A week is a long time in politics.........because of ........

    .......events dear boy, events.

    There is no certainty about the election nor party leaders subsequent to the election.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    edited April 2015
    roserees64 said:

    Just read a comment on here which said that voting UKIP has made someone ' feel great'. Surely this has to be a joke because voting for a reductionist agenda which is both xenophobic and anti-business is not a great idea in the 21st century. Good job that UKIP will get only 2 seats!

    If someone feels great at the act of voting, then I welcome that, whoever they choose to vote for; at least they have been inspired, even if what inspired them does not inspire me. If it is not a great idea then it should fade, though even clearly bad ideas do not totally go away.
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Has anyone thought just how our wonderful British Isles has come to this fractured political system. Maybe its just too complex to provide a straight forward answer

    Probably. I guess the easy answer is around people not being engaged or served by the traditional two party politics, but frankly I find something encouraging that even in a system that favours a two party system, others are managing to break through in small and large ways. That we are so split between the biggest two choices I think is because the problems and issues we face are such that solutions are not obvious even as two distinct messages (and so that is not even being offered), coupled with fewer people being tribal voters for only the big two now.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072
    BETTING POST

    The LibDem seat bands look like pretty much free money. Put money on at 4-1 with Ladbrokes (or others) on 11-20 seats, and a covering bet on 21-30 (11-10 with several).

    SkyBet offers an interesting 16-1 on 10 seats or less if you're that way inclined. Nevertheless given there has to be a 90% chance of less than 30 seats for the LibDems, the seat bands look excellent value.

    (Given at least nine losses in Scotland, and six certain Labour losses, you only need 10 from the flotsam and jetsam of Conservative and - harder - Labour challenge seats.)

    If you genuinely believe Cambridge is going to fall to Labour, then the 16-1 on 10 seats and under looks incredible value.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    JohnLilburne said:

    While looking up Deputy Prime Ministers on Wikipedia, I came across this article https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chief_Mouser_to_the_Cabinet_Office

    That is brilliant! Only in the UK :D
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    SouthamObserver said:

    Boris really was pony on the Marr show this morning. He's good at Greek and great at Latin, but policy and debate are clearly weak points.

    Depends what you were expecting - it strikes me Boris was essentially there to rally the Tory troops following a so far lacklustre campaign with a bit of good old fashioned knockabout which from where I was sitting he did perfectly well. Shame the plug was pulled before the Ed and Boris show at the end really got going. Boris was not there to push his leadership credentials as some have been suggesting.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    OT. Its snowing bloody hard around Aberdeen at the moment. Not sure I would like to be pounding the pavements in this weather.

    That's God punishing Aberdeen for not voting "Out".

    Also, that's God discouraging unionists from voting.

    SNP supporters, by the way, don't feel the cold.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072
    Betting question: next LibDem leader; if it's not Farron, who will it be?

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    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    If anyone followed my earlier tipperoo in Scotland you will have money to play with in Betfred acc

    Kevin Gameiro fgs 4/1 massive
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    OT. Its snowing bloody hard around Aberdeen at the moment. Not sure I would like to be pounding the pavements in this weather.

    That's God punishing Aberdeen for not voting "Out".

    Also, that's God discouraging unionists from voting.

    SNP supporters, by the way, don't feel the cold.
    About half a foot in inverness.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    rcs1000 said:

    Betting question: next LibDem leader; if it's not Farron, who will it be?

    Norman Lamb?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    edited April 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    Betting question: next LibDem leader; if it's not Farron, who will it be?

    Carmichael? Even his seat looks to be in play in these SNP heavy times, but he should be safe. They can try to appear they still have nationwide aspirations with a Scot as their leader too. Scottish Secretary, but probably doesn't have much of a profile (which can be a positive and negative depending on the profile)
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    Betting question: next LibDem leader; if it's not Farron, who will it be?

    This depends far more than usual on who's going to keep their seat doesn't it?

    Like in '97 when Portillo was a favourite to be post-election leader but lost his seat instead, there is a risk of a Portillo moment for many would-be LD favourites.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. NorthWales, Labour's incompetent devolution.

    The SNP are (in terms of seats) the only real break with the past, or will be, at the election. That's the game-changer.

    There are other factors, but that's the big one.

    Absolutely agree - the 'genie' is out of the bottle and looks that it is inevitable that sometime in the future Scotland will have another referendum but of course the outcome of that is by no means certain either
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Philip_Thompson said:

    This depends far more than usual on who's going to keep their seat doesn't it?

    Like in '97 when Portillo was a favourite to be post-election leader but lost his seat instead, there is a risk of a Portillo moment for many would-be LD favourites.

    Maybe it will be one of the new 2015 intake...
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    One point to note on betting on leadership changes (for any party): if it looks like another election might be called at short notice, or if there are chaotic inter-party negotiations going on, a given party might hang on to its current leader for fear of being caught with its pants down (as it were).
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602
    edited April 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    Betting question: next LibDem leader; if it's not Farron, who will it be?

    I'm still hopeful my Chris Huhne as next Lib Dem leader after Clegg betting slip might still be a winner.

    But probably Norman Lamb or Vince if young Cardinals prefer old Bishops of Rome.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Betting question: next LibDem leader; if it's not Farron, who will it be?

    Carmichael? Even his seat looks to be in play in these SNP heavy times, but he should be safe. They can try to appear they still have nationwide aspirations with a Scot as their leader too.
    I reckon the SNP will get the "Out" vote in each constituency, and therefore they top out at 37% in Orkney and Shetland. Can the LibDems get 37.1% in O&S? I suspect yes, as they will be the beneficiary of any pro-Union voting.

    I'm thinking, in a 20 seat LibDem party, who will be Farron's opponent.

    Not Laws, or Alexander as the former is too right wing (and has baggage) and the latter will be without a seat.

    Steve Webb? Norman Lamb?

    I might take the 50-1 on Julian Huppert, on the basis that he's likely to have a seat post the election.

    Assuming she gets re-elected (25% chance), I reckon Lynne Featherstone would stand. Would she win?
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited April 2015
    Ukip 'hates modern Britain' and is infected with the 'virus of racism', says Labour's Chuka Umunna

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3056237/Ukip-hates-modern-Britain-infected-virus-racism-says-Labour-s-Chuka-Umunna.html

    You can see where we heading under labour again,shut your mouth up on immigration or your a racist.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    This depends far more than usual on who's going to keep their seat doesn't it?

    Like in '97 when Portillo was a favourite to be post-election leader but lost his seat instead, there is a risk of a Portillo moment for many would-be LD favourites.

    Maybe it will be one of the new 2015 intake...
    Will there be that many LD incomers?

    Surely most LD seats will be won on an incumbent personal vote, I can't imagine any gains - and any retirements put the seat far more at risk of a loss. There'll be some retirements kept and many a gain or two, but not that many in total I suspect. Nowhere near as much as normal.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,904
    edited April 2015
    Now that both the Tories and Labour have said they'll have nothing to do with the SNP it's a strange irony that after losing the referendum they'll now almost certainly be the single most important player at Westminster.

    PS. It's difficult to know why Miliband has made this seemingly suicidal decision
This discussion has been closed.