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TNS

Good poll for UKIP as weighted considering how people voted in the 2010 election and excludes those who prefer not to say. In the Midlands UKIP vote share is only 7% less than Labour!

AndreaParma_82 said:

In absolute terms of voters lost, the biggest drops

Cardiff Central -11.536
Liverpool, Riverside -11.338
Newcastle upon Tyne East -9.388
Nottingham South -8.903
Loughborough -8.490
City of Durham -8.422
York Central -8.251
Oxford East -8.080
Leicester South -7.824
Reading East -7.605
Brighton, Pavilion -7.503
Coventry South -7.029
Ceredigion -6.735
Salford and Eccles -6.339
Hornsey and Wood Green -6.304
Tottenham -5.712
Holborn and St Pancras -5.700
Blackpool South -5.645
Crewe and Nantwich -5.556
Manchester, Central -5.528

Gains


Edinburgh North and Leith 4482
East Devon 3.363
Wellingborough 3.092
Tonbridge and Malling 2.472
Wantage 2.145
Edinburgh South 2111
Glasgow South 2052
Northampton South 1.935
Ashfield 1.858
Glasgow East 1803
North Cornwall 1.746
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton 1.742
Hendon 1.715
Shrewsbury and Atcham 1.712
Edinburgh West 1665
Mansfield 1.610
Ludlow 1.575
Taunton Deane 1.516
Glasgow South West 1500
Foyle 1.457

This needs a thread of its own. Nicky Morgan must be safe in Loughborough now. But teabreak over...

Anorak said:

MarqueeMark said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

Garethofthevale said:

York Central has to be the nicest Labour constituency

I suspect Lincoln will take that crown in May. Less than half the tourists of York and a far superior cathedral IMHO.

The Gower?

Luton?

Ilford North?

(only kidding!)

AndreaParma_82 said:

Gains


Edinburgh North and Leith 4482
East Devon 3.363
Wellingborough 3.092
Tonbridge and Malling 2.472
Wantage 2.145
Edinburgh South 2111
Glasgow South 2052
Northampton South 1.935
Ashfield 1.858
Glasgow East 1803
North Cornwall 1.746
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton 1.742
Hendon 1.715
Shrewsbury and Atcham 1.712
Edinburgh West 1665
Mansfield 1.610
Ludlow 1.575
Taunton Deane 1.516
Glasgow South West 1500
Foyle 1.457

Suzanne Evans is the UKIP candidate for Shrewsbury and Atcham.

I thought it was a no-hoper, but she is a great candidate.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/shrewsburyandatcham/

logical_song said:

murali_s said:

O/T - AGW

Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/3

April showers? Seems more like summer. Of course one month's data, one set of floods or droughts doesn't actually prove anything, they're just indications.
It's always puzzled me how intelligent people seem to think that their opinions on AGW really amount to much. The scientific evidence is convincing and is being refined all the time, scientists try to get ever closer to the facts in this field as in any other.
You may be right about the majority opinion on PB, luckily they're not running the country.
To those who deny (sorry are sceptical about) AGW, just swap to LED bulbs because they'll save you 80% of your electricity bill. This in turn is 20% of your energy bill, which averages around £1,200/yr, so you'd save £240/year, every year. Don't do it for the planet, do it for your pocket.

Trouble is you - as an uninformed and scientifically illiterate observer - are in no position to make any comment of judgement on the matter. And yet for some reason you seem to think yourself qualified to do so. Not the behaviour of an intelligent person really is it?

Tebbit has not had much good to say about Cameron for many years IIRC. I take his point about Labour and the lesser of two evils, but going after the SNP so vociferously does not quite constitute irritating the Scots for no good reason I think.

Short term it seems like the best chance yet the Tories have had to shift some votes in England, but there's no question it will cause difficulties after the election. But those were coming anyway, so worth the risk I suppose was the judgement.

AndyJS said:

I wonder what will happen to the SNP if they don't end up in coalition or in some sort of arrangement with Labour. Some of their younger MPs might get fed up sitting on the opposition benches doing nothing very much, except rubbing shoulders with Labour MPs who detest them. We could have a few by-elections after a couple of years.

I doubt it will prove a problem. Plenty of work to be done in the constituency to shore up that newly won SNP vote, and surely almost all could stick out even a bored first term, how awful would it have to be to just quit so early without intense personal reasons? Not to mention the prospect of another referendum within 5 years possibly.

Heading back to the previous thread, it seems ICM have been doing those by-constituency-type breakdowns since February.

The LDs have been on 31 - 31 - 32 - 23 in their own E&W constituencies (47 in 2010) .

Going with 31% as a median, by my estimation they save 19/46. Plus 1 in Scotland.

JackW said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

surbiton said:

Barnesian said:

David_Evershed said:

Barnesian said:

Just answered a YouGov Poll on voting intention (I've already voted).

The survey also had questions on Cameron's successor so look out for that.

Barnesian has already voted?

Are postal votes already available ?

My postal vote arrived on Saturday. Posted it back yesterday. Can't change my mind now!

I posted my ballot paper today. One vote for Labour [ important in 2020 ]. I think Davey will lose to the Tories.

I think he'll be 5,000 votes behind.

I would like Davey to just win [ but not enough to actually vote for him ]. If he loses, then I would like a big margin like your 5000.

The last Lord A poll, albeit back in November, had Davey +8.

Nothing I'm hearing from team yellow or blue suggest he'll lose, let alone by 5,000.

I think that Ashcroft poll was a Tory win with Q1.

Mr Davey has been campaigning full time since November, so he doesn't seem to consider it a safe seat.

http://order-order.com/2014/11/12/davey-diverts-his-energy/

JackW said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

surbiton said:

Barnesian said:

David_Evershed said:

Barnesian said:

Just answered a YouGov Poll on voting intention (I've already voted).

The survey also had questions on Cameron's successor so look out for that.

Barnesian has already voted?

Are postal votes already available ?

My postal vote arrived on Saturday. Posted it back yesterday. Can't change my mind now!

I posted my ballot paper today. One vote for Labour [ important in 2020 ]. I think Davey will lose to the Tories.

I think he'll be 5,000 votes behind.

I would like Davey to just win [ but not enough to actually vote for him ]. If he loses, then I would like a big margin like your 5000.

The last Lord A poll, albeit back in November, had Davey +8.

Nothing I'm hearing from team yellow or blue suggest he'll lose, let alone by 5,000.

It also had the Tories +11. Might be close.

Richard_Tyndall said:

murali_s said:

O/T - AGW

Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/3

Not according to the satellite data - not even close. Both the UAH and the RSS data show it a long way off the warmest.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/climatechange/march-2015-global-satellite-me/45194068

Agree with the fact that there is a slight disconnect between satellite data and observed data. However, we're just discussing the small-print here - the trend for global temperatures is inexorably up. Global Warming is happening here and now.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Flightpath said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

murali_s said:

O/T - AGW

Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/3

Not according to the satellite data - not even close. Both the UAH and the RSS data show it a long way off the warmest.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/climatechange/march-2015-global-satellite-me/45194068

Credit where credit is due Mr T

Do you know what Flightpath. If you and I met in a pub we would probably get on like a house on fire. So apologies in retrospect and in advance for past and future insults - of which I am sure there will be many. They are the prattlings of a web bore and do not in any way reflect the way I would talk to people in real life.

"we would probably get on like a house on fire"

Panic, shouting, people running away?


(from T Pratchett).

surbiton said:

Tebbit said David Cameron’s decision to talk up the threat posed by the SNP was “puzzling”.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/apr/21/election-2015-live-labour-john-major-blackmail-snp-nicola-sturgeon-ed-miliband#block-55365de5e4b01211d17a1e0c


What I find puzzling now is the prime minister’s position that the SNP is far worse than Labour because, if so, as there are not many seats in Scotland where the Conservative Party has a chance to win, the logic would seem to be that Conservatives should vote tactically for Labour as the lesser of two evils.

I think it’s a huge scare tactic against Labour and whether the particular seat in the House of Commons is occupied by a Labour member or an SNP member perhaps it’s not a great difference.
Tebbit accused Cameron of “irritating” the Scots for no good reason.




Having bungled the Scottish referendum it seems pointless to just irritate Scots by shouting at them from Westminster - the English are irritated into voting for Ukip, by being shouted at from Westminster - and the Scots are irritated similarly.

---

Tebbit gets it ! Cameron doesn't.

Cameron gets it.

From the Graun:

"No matter that the SNP’s policies, as revealed on Monday, are copies of Labour’s, so with the sole exception of Trident they hardly drag the already leftwing Miliband any further left."

theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/21/tories-election-2015-sturgeon-miliband-warning

The whole discussion, regardless of Forsyth, Tebbit, Major, is reminding the electorate how left wing Ed actually is (or rather, is reinforcing a perception that he is left wing).

That is where the damage is being done.

Just one properly weighted, non leading question NAMED poll in somewhere like Kingston and Surbiton

Thankyou very much !

Anybody have any PB wisdom to dispense on Oxford East? Will voter registration have an effect? I'm assuming a Labour win of 5-8000.

If anyone wants to back DAVE4PM, you can finally get some slightly more sensible odds

Currently;

Dave 2.24
Ed 1.8

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

JackW said:

surbiton said:

rcs1000 said:

surbiton said:

Barnesian said:

David_Evershed said:

Barnesian said:

Just answered a YouGov Poll on voting intention (I've already voted).

The survey also had questions on Cameron's successor so look out for that.

Barnesian has already voted?

Are postal votes already available ?

My postal vote arrived on Saturday. Posted it back yesterday. Can't change my mind now!

I posted my ballot paper today. One vote for Labour [ important in 2020 ]. I think Davey will lose to the Tories.

I think he'll be 5,000 votes behind.

I would like Davey to just win [ but not enough to actually vote for him ]. If he loses, then I would like a big margin like your 5000.

The last Lord A poll, albeit back in November, had Davey +8.

Nothing I'm hearing from team yellow or blue suggest he'll lose, let alone by 5,000.

It also had the Tories +11. Might be close.

The thing I don't understand is how 18% of the Conservative vote heads over to the Lib Dems when asked "in your constituency" when it is a straight Blue-Yellow fight.

Local Tory more right wing than the party as a whole, and they'd prefer a LD moderating influence to bolder Cameron's wing of the party than someone on the hard right? Purely a guess.

Pulpstar said:

Just one properly weighted, non leading question NAMED poll in somewhere like Kingston and Surbiton

Thankyou very much !

Incorrect, all polling should be Orkney and Shetland.

If the polling companies enjoin together they could pol every adult on the islands in a week.

BenM said:

Ashcroft Lab share is an outlier.

Maybe. But no one other than lots of YouGovs and one MORI poll has given Lab 35% since "the day the polls turned".

kle4 said:

TOPPING said:

surbiton said:

Tebbit said David Cameron’s decision to talk up the threat posed by the SNP was “puzzling”.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/apr/21/election-2015-live-labour-john-major-blackmail-snp-nicola-sturgeon-ed-miliband#block-55365de5e4b01211d17a1e0c


What I find puzzling now is the prime minister’s position that the SNP is far worse than Labour because, if so, as there are not many seats in Scotland where the Conservative Party has a chance to win, the logic would seem to be that Conservatives should vote tactically for Labour as the lesser of two evils.

I think it’s a huge scare tactic against Labour and whether the particular seat in the House of Commons is occupied by a Labour member or an SNP member perhaps it’s not a great difference.
Tebbit accused Cameron of “irritating” the Scots for no good reason.




Having bungled the Scottish referendum it seems pointless to just irritate Scots by shouting at them from Westminster - the English are irritated into voting for Ukip, by being shouted at from Westminster - and the Scots are irritated similarly.

---

Tebbit gets it ! Cameron doesn't.

Cameron gets it.

From the Graun:

"No matter that the SNP’s policies, as revealed on Monday, are copies of Labour’s, so with the sole exception of Trident they hardly drag the already leftwing Miliband any further left."

theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/21/tories-election-2015-sturgeon-miliband-warning

The whole discussion, regardless of Forsyth, Tebbit, Major, is reminding the electorate how left wing Ed actually is (or rather, is reinforcing a perception that he is left wing).

That is where the damage is being done.

But there are many who want him to be more left wing, since he has been less obviously so lately. They like the idea of the SNP forcing his hand in that direction. So while it will cost him some votes, I think it gains him some too, from people who were hesitant but think he'll be more left wing that they had thought. It comes down to how much of each occurs, and where.

True - but I think the rump of the electorate is centre-based, as each party, Lab & Con, have demonstrated by their move in that direction.

Lab might get some Greens back but on balance I think it will do more harm than good.

Bob__Sykes said:

Because floating voters and Lab <> Con switchers in northern working class communities (and I'm from one)

Ah, the old "if they dont appeal to the likes of me they're in trouble" refrain from our floating voter community.

Richard_Tyndall said:

logical_song said:

murali_s said:

O/T - AGW

Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/3

April showers? Seems more like summer. Of course one month's data, one set of floods or droughts doesn't actually prove anything, they're just indications.
It's always puzzled me how intelligent people seem to think that their opinions on AGW really amount to much. The scientific evidence is convincing and is being refined all the time, scientists try to get ever closer to the facts in this field as in any other.
You may be right about the majority opinion on PB, luckily they're not running the country.
To those who deny (sorry are sceptical about) AGW, just swap to LED bulbs because they'll save you 80% of your electricity bill. This in turn is 20% of your energy bill, which averages around £1,200/yr, so you'd save £240/year, every year. Don't do it for the planet, do it for your pocket.

Trouble is you - as an uninformed and scientifically illiterate observer - are in no position to make any comment of judgement on the matter. And yet for some reason you seem to think yourself qualified to do so. Not the behaviour of an intelligent person really is it?

Your comments are just insults, so can be ignored.

Scott_P said:

I asked last week and shall ask again; At what point does Ed not telling Nicola to get stuffed start to cost him more than it gains him?

But how can he tell her to get stuffed? He can't do anything to counter the dastardly, fiendish, underhand plan of the SNP that their MPs would vote for him in a vote of confidence.

TGOHF said:

Lab rampers on here appear to think it's in the bag - a progressive coalition of the poor, progressive and public sector forming a human chain of kindness coalition from Brighton to Braemar let by the titan of politics - Ed Miliband.

Nailed on.

'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'

It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready.

Grandiose said:

Tabman said:

Anybody have any PB wisdom to dispense on Oxford East? Will voter registration have an effect? I'm assuming a Labour win of 5-8000.

Is it the margin of victory you're after? Or are you contemplating the odds on a n other party?

Well I'm curious given that it bucked the trend in 2010 having been ultra-marginal in 2005. I'm also thinking of doing my bit to hasten the end of one of Ed's footsoldiers, and I'm wondering how much a waste of effort it will be

Bob__Sykes said:

JonCisBack said:

Bob__Sykes said:

KentRising said:

Anecdote alert. On train into London from Kent. Some guy reading from the Metro tutting away. Realises he's being heard by the woman nearby says "sorry, it's the SNP stuff. It's outrageous." Woman: "It certainly is." Him:"That lunatic woman." Her: "Yes, she's got them wrapped around her finger." Him: "Yes, especially Miliband."

Sort of reinforces my musings yesterday lunchtime - this issue resonates quite well in Surrey or Kent.

But in Pendle, Rossendale, Bury North, Lancaster, Wirral West, Pudsey........ ???

Why not?

Anywhere in England the thought of Jimmy Krankie's irritating sister holding the UK govt to ransom is appalling.

Why would Northern Englanders not think this any more than people in Kent? Genuinely don't understand your post, even passing it through the usual filter accounting for your ceaselessly vast anti-tory negativity.

Simple. Because floating voters and Lab <> Con switchers in northern working class communities (and I'm from one) tend to be a bit more leftwards leaning than many of their counterparts in the SE, and are probably quite sympathetic to some of the utterances of Sturgeon. They also regard London politicians as distant and out of touch more than our Kent cousins do, so that is something else we have in common with Scots and the SNP.

My consistent point, that the Tory Command just don't get, is that many of the voters they NEED to vote Tory are actually listening to Sturgeon and the general debate about the SNP holding Miliband to ransom and thinking "I quite like that actually", regardless of their views (way down the list of importance) on the West Lothian Question or similar.

I think that the only significant source of floating voters left are waverers between Conservative and UKIP. I don't think they're enamoured of the SNP.

The people who are most keen on SNP involvement in government are those who worry that Labour aren't left-wing enough.

logical_song said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

logical_song said:

murali_s said:

O/T - AGW

Dons helmet (as a lot of folk here maybe even the majority don't buy into anthropogenic global warming), but March 2015 was the warmest March ever recorded globally according to NOAA.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/3

April showers? Seems more like summer. Of course one month's data, one set of floods or droughts doesn't actually prove anything, they're just indications.
It's always puzzled me how intelligent people seem to think that their opinions on AGW really amount to much. The scientific evidence is convincing and is being refined all the time, scientists try to get ever closer to the facts in this field as in any other.
You may be right about the majority opinion on PB, luckily they're not running the country.
To those who deny (sorry are sceptical about) AGW, just swap to LED bulbs because they'll save you 80% of your electricity bill. This in turn is 20% of your energy bill, which averages around £1,200/yr, so you'd save £240/year, every year. Don't do it for the planet, do it for your pocket.

Trouble is you - as an uninformed and scientifically illiterate observer - are in no position to make any comment of judgement on the matter. And yet for some reason you seem to think yourself qualified to do so. Not the behaviour of an intelligent person really is it?

Your comments are just insults, so can be ignored.

Ah the difference is that I actually know what I am talking about when it comes to climate science whereas you clearly do not. I have had a fair few insult free and interesting exchanges with Obitus amongst others on here about climate science. But you apparently know little on the subject and are happier throwing around 'denier' insults instead. As such you really have nothing to bring to the debate beyond your closed mind.

SMukesh said:

Cameron now at risk of alienating his core vote by appearing to put the union at risk.Both TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are old Conservative voices.I wonder how many more there are like them who are irritated by his selfishness and putting personal interest ahead of national interest.

The union is already at risk - in fact an SNP landslide makes its end all but inevitable I fear - and the Tories winning the election is generally regarded as the thing that would hasten its demise the quickest, so I am a little unsure of what more the Tories could do to imperil it. Surely the only thing that does not put the union in any further risk would be for Labour to not lose all those seats, but that is not an option - even with all Tories voting tactically to help them the SNP would win a great many.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_P said:

I asked last week and shall ask again; At what point does Ed not telling Nicola to get stuffed start to cost him more than it gains him?

But how can he tell her to get stuffed? He can't do anything to counter the dastardly, fiendish, underhand plan of the SNP that their MPs would vote for him in a vote of confidence.

It destroys Labour's argument (Put forward here by Scottish Labour supporter John N, Murphy etc) that a vote for the SNP is a vote for the Tories...

Tremendously dastardly I agree.

Bob__Sykes said:

JonCisBack said:

Bob__Sykes said:

KentRising said:

Anecdote alert. On train into London from Kent. Some guy reading from the Metro tutting away. Realises he's being heard by the woman nearby says "sorry, it's the SNP stuff. It's outrageous." Woman: "It certainly is." Him:"That lunatic woman." Her: "Yes, she's got them wrapped around her finger." Him: "Yes, especially Miliband."

Sort of reinforces my musings yesterday lunchtime - this issue resonates quite well in Surrey or Kent.

But in Pendle, Rossendale, Bury North, Lancaster, Wirral West, Pudsey........ ???

Why not?

Anywhere in England the thought of Jimmy Krankie's irritating sister holding the UK govt to ransom is appalling.

Why would Northern Englanders not think this any more than people in Kent? Genuinely don't understand your post, even passing it through the usual filter accounting for your ceaselessly vast anti-tory negativity.

Simple. Because floating voters and Lab <> Con switchers in northern working class communities (and I'm from one) tend to be a bit more leftwards leaning than many of their counterparts in the SE, and are probably quite sympathetic to some of the utterances of Sturgeon. They also regard London politicians as distant and out of touch more than our Kent cousins do, so that is something else we have in common with Scots and the SNP.

My consistent point, that the Tory Command just don't get, is that many of the voters they NEED to vote Tory are actually listening to Sturgeon and the general debate about the SNP holding Miliband to ransom and thinking "I quite like that actually", regardless of their views (way down the list of importance) on the West Lothian Question or similar.

The overlap in the Venn diagram of "people who are sympathetic to Sturgeon" and "people who might vote tory" would need a microscope!

And do tell us more about these "leftwards leaning tory voters".

Actually don't...really please don't.

Bob__Sykes said:

JonCisBack said:

Bob__Sykes said:

KentRising said:

Anecdote alert. On train into London from Kent. Some guy reading from the Metro tutting away. Realises he's being heard by the woman nearby says "sorry, it's the SNP stuff. It's outrageous." Woman: "It certainly is." Him:"That lunatic woman." Her: "Yes, she's got them wrapped around her finger." Him: "Yes, especially Miliband."

Sort of reinforces my musings yesterday lunchtime - this issue resonates quite well in Surrey or Kent.

But in Pendle, Rossendale, Bury North, Lancaster, Wirral West, Pudsey........ ???

Why not?

Anywhere in England the thought of Jimmy Krankie's irritating sister holding the UK govt to ransom is appalling.

Why would Northern Englanders not think this any more than people in Kent? Genuinely don't understand your post, even passing it through the usual filter accounting for your ceaselessly vast anti-tory negativity.

Simple. Because floating voters and Lab <> Con switchers in northern working class communities (and I'm from one) tend to be a bit more leftwards leaning than many of their counterparts in the SE, and are probably quite sympathetic to some of the utterances of Sturgeon.

My consistent point, that the Tory Command just don't get, is that many of the voters they NEED to vote Tory are actually listening to Sturgeon and the general debate about the SNP holding Miliband to ransom and thinking "I quite like that actually", regardless of their views (way down the list of importance) on the West Lothian Question or similar.

Labour is closing around the metropolitan cities, public sector professionals, third sector, broadcast media and left-leaning graduates and intelligentsia. In the long-term, they should be very strong in Manchester, London, Brighton, Oxford, Cambridge, Bristol and Nottingham.

The Conservatives are hoovering up the wealthy shires and suburbs where the Home Counties middle class English congregate, or migrate and retire to, including South-west England and South-west Wales. Affluent city workers and upper-middle classes in the country. There are also similar pockets in the north - e.g North Yorkshire.

The big hole both have (or will have) is the WWC, ethnic minorities (I think even Labour could end up having a problem here outside London) South Wales, Merseyside, North East and urban Lancashire and Yorkshire. That's on top of Scotland and NI being no go areas.

On current trends, I struggle to see any way back for Labour or the Conservatives to win another overall majority again. Unless either of them absolutely cleans up England, which I don't think will happen for the reasons above.

Depending on the price, I'd be sorely tempted to start backing a hung parliament for 2020 too, as soon as the markets are up.

Tabman said:

Grandiose said:

Tabman said:

Anybody have any PB wisdom to dispense on Oxford East? Will voter registration have an effect? I'm assuming a Labour win of 5-8000.

Is it the margin of victory you're after? Or are you contemplating the odds on a n other party?

I'm also thinking of doing my bit to hasten the end of one of Ed's footsoldiers, and I'm wondering how much a waste of effort it will be

There must be many more worthwhile constituencies for a Lib Dem activist to put some effort into. They have zero chance of winning here.

Razedabode said:

Re. Surbiton and Ed Davey, one of my colleagues at work is convinced Davey is on the back foot (although again, I'd point to the Lord Ashcroft polls). They've been getting relatively positive reponses whilst canvassing, so who knows. I think the "Ed Davey" brand is too strong, personally.

Can you explain the appeal of it ?

Dave has spent more time during this election talking about the S.N.P. than talking about the N.H.S.

Says it all really

Scott_P said:

SMukesh said:

Both TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are old Conservative voices.

This is hilarious

TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are throwbacks to a Thatcherite past, and remind voters of the Nasty Party, oh, wait the true voice of conservatism that Cameron should and must adhere to...

Spin any harder you'll throw up, lads.

It may be inverted snobbishness but I don't want old style, Old Etonian Tories of the old school to succeed me and go back to the old complacent, consensus ways. John Major is someone who has fought his way up from the bottom and is far more in tune with the skilled and ambitious and worthwhile working classes than Douglas Hurd is.

- MHT said to Woodrow Wyatt (23 November 1990), Sarah Curtis (ed.), The Journals of Woodrow Wyatt. Volume Two (Pan, 2000), pp. 401-402.

Neil said:

Tabman said:

Grandiose said:

Tabman said:

Anybody have any PB wisdom to dispense on Oxford East? Will voter registration have an effect? I'm assuming a Labour win of 5-8000.

Is it the margin of victory you're after? Or are you contemplating the odds on a n other party?

I'm also thinking of doing my bit to hasten the end of one of Ed's footsoldiers, and I'm wondering how much a waste of effort it will be

There must be many more worthwhile constituencies for a Lib Dem activist to put some effort into. They have zero chance of winning here.

Its more fun fighting the left.

I see there's a Green, Socialist, TUSC and UKIP vote to fracture the Labour core.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_P said:

I asked last week and shall ask again; At what point does Ed not telling Nicola to get stuffed start to cost him more than it gains him?

But how can he tell her to get stuffed? He can't do anything to counter the dastardly, fiendish, underhand plan of the SNP that their MPs would vote for him in a vote of confidence.

He can always ask his own MPs to vote against! Which is why I mentioned on a previous thread that we might get a scenario of Labour voting against their own confidence motion - and the tories in favour.

Pulpstar said:

Razedabode said:

Re. Surbiton and Ed Davey, one of my colleagues at work is convinced Davey is on the back foot (although again, I'd point to the Lord Ashcroft polls). They've been getting relatively positive reponses whilst canvassing, so who knows. I think the "Ed Davey" brand is too strong, personally.

Can you explain the appeal of it ?

The appeal of Ed Davey? I'm not sure, myself. I certainly admire his tenacity - he was was a particularly lonesome figure outside Waitrose handing out leaflets in Surbiton the other evening, so he certainly gets stuck in. Saying that, my colleague most probably has a reason to be optimistic being he was elected as a Tory councillor last year when they re-took control of the council, so understands the dynamics better than I do.

Based on the current rules, the next boundary commission will be using the December 2015 electoral registers. This is after the full effect of independent voter registration comes in, as this year as an interim measure there has been rollover of the previous register where people have not moved, etc.

kingbongo said:

Tabman said:

Neil said:

Tabman said:

Grandiose said:

Tabman said:

Anybody have any PB wisdom to dispense on Oxford East? Will voter registration have an effect? I'm assuming a Labour win of 5-8000.

Is it the margin of victory you're after? Or are you contemplating the odds on a n other party?

I'm also thinking of doing my bit to hasten the end of one of Ed's footsoldiers, and I'm wondering how much a waste of effort it will be

There must be many more worthwhile constituencies for a Lib Dem activist to put some effort into. They have zero chance of winning here.

Its more fun fighting the left.

I see there's a Green, Socialist, TUSC and UKIP vote to fracture the Labour core.

I live in Oxford East too! would love to think the LD could take it but it's not going to happen - I did get a leaflet though from the Socialist Party of GB - which is more than I've had from the Lib Dems - nothing nada zilch

I'm not always sure that the Post Office are totally even-handed when it comes to delivering the Freepost.

If it was ever going to be taken it was in 2010 so it won't happen this time, unless voter registration has an effect.

Play is underway in Grenada.

Carnyx said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Scott_P said:

SMukesh said:

Both TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are old Conservative voices.

This is hilarious

TEBBIT AND FORSYTHE are throwbacks to a Thatcherite past, and remind voters of the Nasty Party, oh, wait the true voice of conservatism that Cameron should and must adhere to...

Spin any harder you'll throw up, lads.

It may be inverted snobbishness but I don't want old style, Old Etonian Tories of the old school to succeed me and go back to the old complacent, consensus ways. John Major is someone who has fought his way up from the bottom and is far more in tune with the skilled and ambitious and worthwhile working classes than Douglas Hurd is.

- MHT said to Woodrow Wyatt (23 November 1990), Sarah Curtis (ed.), The Journals of Woodrow Wyatt. Volume Two (Pan, 2000), pp. 401-402.

And Mr Tebbit too, IIRC.

I read Mr Tebbit's autobiography last year. He comes across as a Good Egg.

He'd have been a super successor to Mrs T as leader of the Conservative Party.

DavidL said:

Carnyx said:

Scott_P said:

I am no more a fan of the politics of English anger than the Scottish variety: both are marinaded in self-regard and grievance. But proportionality matters. Sturgeon told me in an interview for the Standard just before the campaign that she expected Scottish MPs, even after enhanced devolution, to have a vote on anything from education to the NHS which might have budgetary implications for Scotland. In other words, just about everything that is not about Morris dancing. This is plainly unstable and glaringly unfair. Cameron will spend the next two weeks telling us so. Miliband has an even more forbidding task: shaking off the pythonesque embrace of Nicola Sturgeon.

http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/anne-mcelvoy-ed-miliband-must-beware-the-pythonesque-squeeze-of-nicola-sturgeon-10192176.html

I asked last week and shall ask again; At what point does Ed not telling Nicola to get stuffed start to cost him more than it gains him?

"which might have budgetary implications for Scotland", and then the author whines that it's unfair for MPs from Scotland to wish to influence that decision?

Pull the other leg, I'm a centipede (or in this context perhaps rather a Milipede).

Firstly, it should be a very straightforward and easy matter to ensure that English MPs priorities as to how they spend their money does not have a knock on effect on a fixed Scottish budget.

Secondly, the logic of the SNP's (and SLAB's) position is that the Commons should have this wedge of MPs who will always vote for more public spending on the basis that it brings additional and consequential pork to Scotland. Does anyone, even in the SNP, seriously think that is a sustainable position?

I think you are perhaps confusing spending with budgetary decisions - the original Standard article is plainly exaggerating for panic effect. It's not - usually - a problem [edit] to deal with minutiae of English spending.

On the second issue, why not? All MPs do it within the UK context, as far as they can, and indeed so they should. That's part of what they are voted in for.

AndyJS said:

Play is underway in Grenada.

But with 11 overs already lost to rain what are the chances of England getting 20 wickets now?